S-FM 348: Standoff

[Wiml]

Also yeah we never sleep today because there's the potential for multiple deaths tonight (most likely a poison from a town chemist - I think one existing is likely from a setup balance pov).

[deathworlds]

Thanks, didn't quite get the last sentence though.

Are you saying you do want to give PoD time or that you usually would in a larger game but this game is an exception because lylo is tomorrow if we miselim?

The latter.

I'm going to go through my ISOs again, and reconfirm who I think we should lynch (it's between loldebite, miz, and pod)

[Wiml]

"I'm only going to put minimal effort into this game" and other lies that you can tell yourself when you come back from your mafia retirement.

[powerofdeath]

@powerofdeath gth right now who is the exact wolf team?

Just the two names is fine.

If anyone else feels like answering this question they're also welcome to.

Lold and MM.

MM is hard defending Lold while Lold is soft bussing MM but never quite voting them. I feel like theyre a team

[Wiml]

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...935#post967935

D1 reads list of wolf-MM in a recent game. His ISO is an interesting read for anyone interested in meta.

[powerofdeath]

MM is doing everything he can to derail the case on Lold, gaslight me as much as he possibly can, tried to form a counterwagons toward towny people like Mizery. I don't know how people are not voting MM here.

[Wiml]

MM is doing everything he can to derail the case on Lold, gaslight me as much as he possibly can, tried to form a counterwagons toward towny people like Mizery. I don't know how people are not voting MM here.

Currently ISOing MM now and I think he's probably just a villager so far. I don't agree with all his pushes but I do believe that he believes in them. There's a depth in his solving this game and he's frequently reevaluating his takes whereas his reads as a wolf seem much less fleshed out and static.

I'll also admit to being in a similar boat to him wrt most of my reads rn being pretty close to null in spite of all the time I've spent ISOing lol.

But yes, if Deb flips wolf I'd look at him again much more carefully. For now though, my ISO on MM isn't finished but I'd be much more likely to consider a Deb vote than a MM one.

[Wiml]

If you're stuck for stuff to do PoD I'd be pretty interested in hearing your thoughts on the MM wolf game I linked though.

[Varcron]

How is this NAI? I guess I should've been more explicit in my reasoning: how does one know we're winning as town right now? Basically everyone is in various shades of yellow in my mind (although it's getting clearer atm, like with POD), so this statement feels VASTLY out of place and screams TMI. I could understand it if Mizery had super clear-cut reads in which she had great certainty (in which case I would be impressed), but that does not seem to be the case.

for reference, here's the post:

They don't know it they probably just feel confident enough to where they feel like town is winning.

To respond to your next bit I do share the scumread on Mizery for the time being, yes, if you read my read list.

[Wiml]

Reading through MM's town ISO in the Hypixel game for reference.

The setup is cool, you've gotta be pretty skilled to balance something like that.

[Varcron]

...actually, LYLO is literally tomorrow if we mislynch today

-vote powerofdeath

My scumread on Mizery still stands and is actually stronger now, assuming POD flips scum

What are you on about? Currently as it stands we are in a 6 v 2 scenario

If we mislynch today, one mafia night kill (assuming mafia doesn't have a second killing ability), and you're in a 4v2 scenario. If you don't lynch tomorrow then it's now a 3v2 and then you're in a LYLO scenario

[Varcron]

What are you on about? Currently as it stands we are in a 6 v 2 scenario

If we mislynch today, one mafia night kill (assuming mafia doesn't have a second killing ability), and you're in a 4v2 scenario. If you don't lynch tomorrow then it's now a 3v2 and then you're in a LYLO scenario

The only way MM is correct and it turns to LYLO tomorrow is if there's a second mafia killing role, and based off of what he said it sounds like he *knows* that there is a second killing role.

[Loldebite]

Not one for picking apart semantics but I wanted to ask about this.

Why add "when I'm town"? You've apparently never been mafia prior to this game, only a serial killer. Did you not do this as a SK? Most people play similarly as SK to how they do as town so that's not what I'd typically expect. Or what else did you mean by the wording?

I specified that because if you're scum then there is a very simple reason why everyone seems to think differently than you do : you don't have the same goal nor the same information.

[Loldebite]

Lold and MM.

MM is hard defending Lold while Lold is soft bussing MM but never quite voting them. I feel like theyre a team

looool nah that's too big where's the catch

[Wiml]

The only way MM is correct and it turns to LYLO tomorrow is if there's a second mafia killing role, and based off of what he said it sounds like he *knows* that there is a second killing role.

Very unlikely mafia have a second killing role but pretty likely town has a chemist imo.

But regardless, lylo is commonly used to refer to both lylo and mylo situations (you can see me using it later too) so it's just a semantics thing. Either way, town gets no more wrong kills.

[Wiml]

MM townier here than he was as town in the Hypixel game tbh.

[Loldebite]

The latter.

I'm going to go through my ISOs again, and reconfirm who I think we should lynch (it's between loldebite, miz, and pod)

Why is MM out of here ? In your last readslist to date he was below PoD

[deathworlds]

Why is MM out of here ? In your last readslist to date he was below PoD

I have an incredibly hard time reading MM, he bamboozled me so hard in the spirits game I think it permanently damaged my ability to read him.

I'm relying pretty much entirely on other people to read him, but I'll also look at him from an objective pro-town/anti-town standpoint

[Marshmallow Marshall]

They don't know it they probably just feel confident enough to where they feel like town is winning.

To respond to your next bit I do share the scumread on Mizery for the time being, yes, if you read my read list.

Even just assuming it is just a sudden burst of confidence from Mizery, it doesn't fit with her general level of confidence when it comes to her reads; it's a dissonance. I am still not convinced it isn't just straight up TMI, though, and if I'm right and she's scum with POD, it would make sense, considering POD is being pushed (in which case town is actually winning).

As for your scumread on Mizery, I'm more interested in your reasons than just in the statement of it, if that wasn't clear.

What are you on about? Currently as it stands we are in a 6 v 2 scenario

If we mislynch today, one mafia night kill (assuming mafia doesn't have a second killing ability), and you're in a 4v2 scenario. If you don't lynch tomorrow then it's now a 3v2 and then you're in a LYLO scenario

I guess the more accurate term is MYLO, that is true; iirc, people in my last games used LYLO to refer to any situations where mislynching = losing, hence my use of it. It doesn't really matter, though, considering the idea remains (having a controversial slot creates doubt that scum can and will exploit, no matter what that slot's alignment actually is). Is there something I'm missing?

The only way MM is correct and it turns to LYLO tomorrow is if there's a second mafia killing role, and based off of what he said it sounds like he *knows* that there is a second killing role.

-____- I am almost insulted that you think I would make such a dumb mistake if I were scum lol.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

MM is doing everything he can to derail the case on Lold, gaslight me as much as he possibly can, tried to form a counterwagons toward towny people like Mizery. I don't know how people are not voting MM here.

What case, though? Your vote on him was literally "I feel he's looking down on me" lol. If you do have an actual case in mind, lay it out instead of vaguely referring to it.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

I have an incredibly hard time reading MM, he bamboozled me so hard in the spirits game I think it permanently damaged my ability to read him.

I'm relying pretty much entirely on other people to read him, but I'll also look at him from an objective pro-town/anti-town standpoint

Ah yes, another game I legit have no memory of anymore lmao. At this point, though, I feel like I've been present enough for you to have some kind of opinion about me, so I expect not to be carefully treated like some kind of hot potato by you just because I pushed you early on. I guess we'll see on D2, though.

[Wiml]

Heads up as we are approaching EoD to please be wary of any mafia roles that could mess up your night actions before you submit.

Pretty sure Janitor, Bartender and Tailor are the only roles that shouldn't submit as town, everything else should be overall beneficial if used wisely and shouldn't holster.

[deathworlds]

okay going through pod's ISO rn.

It's so strange that Varcron is his top town read, like, I get him being a town read, but at the same time, like, why not ika, who is the most obvious town I've ever seen. Or vittae, who's more or less taken up the role of town leader? also I'm not sure I get the whole pocket thing he was going on with lodebite, a swithced vote based off a perceived "gotchya" = a pocket?
I do like the whole poking of other people via voting, I don't like how it switches back to loldebite trying to avoid an omgus?
I do like pod reaction to MM's pressure
suggesting lold and MM as a team? eeeehhhhhhhhh lemmie look at their ISOs and get back to you on that.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Missed this, sorry.

I thought Deb's reaction [about his earlier paranoia] was towny as a snap judgment but I have very mixed opinions on the slot atm. They're another player I'm going through shortly.

After seeing how he went through his reasoning, I'm leaning towards him being town more than scum, even though I'm still unsure; he looked genuine enough, but what scares me is that he could be genuinely overestimating how much people wanted him dead while being scum. Considering POD/Mizery, though, that's probably even less likely now.

About interactions between Debbie and POD in your previous post: this definetly will be something to look into when one of them flips.

[Loldebite]

@powerofdeath gth right now who is the exact wolf team?

Just the two names is fine.

If anyone else feels like answering this question they're also welcome to.

PoD & you

[Loldebite]

Currently ISOing MM now and I think he's probably just a villager so far. I don't agree with all his pushes but I do believe that he believes in them. There's a depth in his solving this game and he's frequently reevaluating his takes whereas his reads as a wolf seem much less fleshed out and static.

I'll also admit to being in a similar boat to him wrt most of my reads rn being pretty close to null in spite of all the time I've spent ISOing lol.

But yes, if Deb flips wolf I'd look at him again much more carefully. For now though, my ISO on MM isn't finished but I'd be much more likely to consider a Deb vote than a MM one.

I'm starting to get a little pissed at all those "if debbie flips scum" comments. So I'll take it on me to compensate :
If MM flips scum pod looks much better IMO
If pod flips scum then mizery looks better (because of #194) and vittae worse for the same reason
If Mizery flips scum then PoD is mostly cleared, again because of #194)
When I flip town MM will get free towncred (omg Paranoie back at it again !) !!!

As it stands now I'm voting PoD if we do decide the lynch is better today

[Wiml]

PoD & you

You think I'm bussing PoD? Or we're just your top wolf reads individually?

[Loldebite]

I have an incredibly hard time reading MM, he bamboozled me so hard in the spirits game I think it permanently damaged my ability to read him.

I'm relying pretty much entirely on other people to read him, but I'll also look at him from an objective pro-town/anti-town standpoint

I see. I feel you (also, fuck sb)

[Wiml]

@deathworlds mind giving me your account name in this game? https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...-307-KRC-AGAIN!

[Loldebite]

You think I'm bussing PoD? Or we're just your top wolf reads individually?

yeah that's 100% based on you bussing PoD

[Loldebite]

Maybe not 100%... Close, tho.

[Wiml]

There's probably only a max of 1 wolf in MM/deb/PoD actually.

Pending a more thorough review of their interactions.

[deathworlds]

@deathworlds mind giving me your account name in this game? https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...-307-KRC-AGAIN!

ZKL3DJ

big pink posts

[Wiml]

yeah that's 100% based on you bussing PoD

Interesting. So I strike you as the sort of player who would do that coming out of D1? How would I benefit from bussing PoD while I'm already townread?

[Wiml]

ZKL3DJ

big pink posts

Ty

[deathworlds]

going through miz's iso
I don't like how I was put near the bottom of her reads list
also, going further into her reasoning regarding my scum read, why should I care that much that my top town reads thinks I'm town? that gains me very little in terms of info, I'd much rather focus my energy into my null and scum reads, whilst putting my town reads in a box and not waste precious brain juice on them.
I do like the immediate vote of her top scum read.
so in miz's universe, the scum list is one of the following:
pod/varcron
pod/me
loldebite/varcron
loldebite/me
I'm not so hot on any of these lists tbh. varcron is a town lean for me, and I'm not scum.
oh yeah the cit claim, after it was said that the scummiest people should claim last, that's real goofy of you mizery, you're def not a top town read here.
Mizery's breakdown of MM's reads is kinda goofy. All except your most confident of town reads should be "pending" need to learn how to put town into boxes so you don't waste brain juice on them.
then scum reading MM more. based off a perceived goofy reads list, and an omgus vote that I think I missed?

overall mizery is pretty goofy, and I don't like any of her scenario's for scum teams.

[Varcron]

going through miz's iso
I don't like how I was put near the bottom of her reads list
also, going further into her reasoning regarding my scum read, why should I care that much that my top town reads thinks I'm town? that gains me very little in terms of info, I'd much rather focus my energy into my null and scum reads, whilst putting my town reads in a box and not waste precious brain juice on them.
I do like the immediate vote of her top scum read.
so in miz's universe, the scum list is one of the following:
pod/varcron
pod/me
loldebite/varcron
loldebite/me
I'm not so hot on any of these lists tbh. varcron is a town lean for me, and I'm not scum.
oh yeah the cit claim, after it was said that the scummiest people should claim last, that's real goofy of you mizery, you're def not a top town read here.
Mizery's breakdown of MM's reads is kinda goofy. All except your most confident of town reads should be "pending" need to learn how to put town into boxes so you don't waste brain juice on them.
then scum reading MM more. based off a perceived goofy reads list, and an omgus vote that I think I missed?

overall mizery is pretty goofy, and I don't like any of her scenario's for scum teams.

My brain is firing towards either a MM or Mizery lynch. I still don't really like Loldebite but I think they've dug themselves a bit out of the hole they were in previously in my eyes. My only pause is that I have a feeling PoD could be pocketting me.

[Wiml]

Death/Miz have high w/w potential based on Death's read list post.

Will look at it more bit taking a short break. Interested what other people think of that interaction though as Death is handling Miz extremely differently to every other player and seems hyperaware of small things she's done that I wouldn't expect most villagers to be aware of about another villager.

[Varcron]

I do think there is a scum between MM/PoD and I also think there's a scum in Loldebite/Mizery tbh

Ikarus is town in every case, same with deathworlds imo. Vittae after reading more of their posts I like quite a lot too.

[Loldebite]

Interesting. So I strike you as the sort of player who would do that coming out of D1? How would I benefit from bussing PoD while I'm already townread?

In the context where you're new to the site & PoD is a returning player, yes I think you'd both agree that this is a viable strategy if PoD gets flak near EoD. Which he is I think your initial vote would then be used as basically extra cred at little to no cost.

Wait. You never actually unvoted them. I was convinced you had at one point. This all seems much less plausible now, bussing THAT hard on D1 is a bit much. Too bad, I liked the idea.

[deathworlds]

going through MM's posts in order+1 is pro town -1 is not pro-town 0 is NAI
0 -RVS
+1 - prompting other players
0 - nothingburger post
+1 - analyzing early game mizery and saying "hey contribute more"
0 - some nothingburger responses, and criticizing my setup speculation, SAD!
0 - debate regarding the merit of setup speculation (it's FINE MM) and some coaching of ikar
+1 - pointing out that objectively in a vacuum, loldebite's setup solving is better than my setup speculation.
-1 - more coaching of ikar, saying varcron's response was dogwater then refusing to elaborate until later
0 - nothingburger post
0 - nothingburger post
+1 - critiquing PoD's reads
+1 - going further into the percieved gotchya

I don't have time to continue my point by point iso right now, except for the nothingburger posts, I think I like MM here

[deathworlds]

going through miz's posts, i don't think I like her significantly any more or less than I did before

just wanted to clarify that

[Loldebite]

Yeah MM has also redeemed himself to my eyes (good job, nice pocketing & fuck you just in case - Paranoie). Miz I have to be honest I struggle to read

[Mizery]

Reading through MM's town ISO in the Hypixel game for reference.

The setup is cool, you've gotta be pretty skilled to balance something like that.

Lmfao

[Mizery]

-vote marshmallowmarshal

[Wiml]

-vote Deathworlds

I think this is a hit actually.

[Loldebite]

Woaw woaw woaw slow down for a second, wtf ?

[deathworlds]

-vote Deathworlds

I think this is a hit actually.

You what?

[deathworlds]

Nonono i am not going to be chinese fire drilled right when I'm about to go to work

[deathworlds]

-vote Deathworlds

I think this is a hit actually.

Explain yourself