S-FM 302: Magellan (15p)

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

If you want to save time, don’t lynch me.

Can’t have it both ways. I fully intend to make it to the end of this game.

K c ya. You're on deck.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Note that Joha still isnt voting Quinne

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

K c ya. You're on deck.

Looking forward to it, turncoat.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Note how Joha is requesting to be left alive and STILL hasnt voted Quinne

The slot cant be trusted.

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

I said yesterday I will hammer whoever is L-1 other than Fred and Bart. I intend to honor that promise.

You literally know what I’m intending to do. With 750 posts of your own I’d expect you to read some of mine as well.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Openly calls me turncoat, doesnt vote me either.

Put down a vote.

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

Hey, did you know I am not currently voting Quinne??

What a conspiracy.

Can’t wait for his third post about it

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

You literally know what I’m intending to do. With 750 posts of your own I’d expect you to read some of mine as well.

You want town to leave you alive yet continue to do anti town things.

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

Openly calls me turncoat, doesnt vote me either.

Put down a vote.

You should own a painting company

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

man couldn’t even close an umbrella, you expect him to close out a game?

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

Is suicide allowed?

If it is, I'll suicide after we lynch Joha to speed things up

No it is not.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

No it is not.

Well, you'll see. After Joha is lynched, lynch me. Then finish this thing strong.

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

I will not be able to post for another 3 hours

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

I will not be able to post for another 3 hours

Good chance a lot of other people won’t anyway.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

I will not be able to post for another 3 hours

Could you vote Quinne before you go?

[S-FM Gollert Twissell]

zoooooooomg, he isn't voting joha, must be scuuuuuuuum

At this point it doesn't matter if Quinne or Joha is lynched today. It was important yesterday to vote Joha first. If town is stuck in a deadlock today, Quinne will still be the correct lynch. I'm just waiting for turncoat to shoot and we have to flip a coin about whether or not we win.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

At this point it doesn't matter if Quinne or Joha is lynched today. It was important yesterday to vote Joha first. If town is stuck in a deadlock today, Quinne will still be the correct lynch. I'm just waiting for turncoat to shoot and we have to flip a coin about whether or not we win.

Blah blah blah. I'm going to ignore anything you say and push forward my own natrative. Gollert-style.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Wow that post was retarded

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Blah blah blah. I'm going to ignore anything you say and push forward my own narrative. Gollert-style.

Fixed. None of you saw nothing

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

The night will last until everyone has sent in night actions, or at most 12 hours.

This was the ultimate troll post.

[S-FM Quinne]

Vote me>Wilberd>Joha

That's the plan.

If I could self vote I would.

If Joha is Ghost. Let them have their chance to win.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Please bear with me and read this post in detail.

The case of the 3 TPR CLAIMs;

There are only 2 support TPR slots in the setup.
3 people claimed those slots.
We can presume that any honest townie would counterclaim by now and that there are no further counterclaims to come.
Therefore, 2 out of 3 are Town and 1 is Scum/Mafia.
This much is confirmed and not news to anybody.

Next let's analyse each of the 3 claims;
Lois;
- grieved D1 because nobody would listen to him
- claimed Sheriff, and claimed Sheriff again by his replacement
- was checked by Quinne and came up as Town
- claimed had a positive check on Marlwyn as mafia

Marlwyn
- claimed Architect but could be Scumitect/framer
- claimed to use his night chat ability N1 with the confirmed disguiser (?convenient) (ie he could have had a conversation in mafia chat with him freeing himself up to frame)
- later forced into using his night chat with Fred on threat of death
- as soon as Fred uses his gun, Marlwyn then makes a night chat with Wilbird (who is now accused of being NE)(?was this Mafia making contact with Turncoat?)(?did they somehow signal to each other in daychat?)

Quinne:
- got a clearing check on Lois
- found a Neutral Evil check on Wilbird
- has been playing protown all game

Now putting all this together;

Lois says Marlwyn is scum.
Marlwyn says Lois is lying.
Quinne says Lois is Town.

Therefore, (but for a very small microchance of framing):
Marlwyn was scum.
Lois was Town.
Quinne is Town.

Combine that with examination of Marlwyn's actions and I am 99.5% convinced.
Quinne is confirmed Town in my book.
DO NOT LYNCH QUINNE.

Get the neutral evil.

-vote S-FM Marck Wilbird

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

You should own a painting company

Lol!

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Please bear with me and read this post in detail.

The case of the 3 TPR CLAIMs;

There are only 2 support TPR slots in the setup.
3 people claimed those slots.
We can presume that any honest townie would counterclaim by now and that there are no further counterclaims to come.
Therefore, 2 out of 3 are Town and 1 is Scum/Mafia.
This much is confirmed and not news to anybody.

Next let's analyse each of the 3 claims;
Lois;
- grieved D1 because nobody would listen to him
- claimed Sheriff, and claimed Sheriff again by his replacement
- was checked by Quinne and came up as Town
- claimed had a positive check on Marlwyn as mafia

Marlwyn
- claimed Architect but could be Scumitect/framer
- claimed to use his night chat ability N1 with the confirmed disguiser (?convenient) (ie he could have had a conversation in mafia chat with him freeing himself up to frame)
- later forced into using his night chat with Fred on threat of death
- as soon as Fred uses his gun, Marlwyn then makes a night chat with Wilbird (who is now accused of being NE)(?was this Mafia making contact with Turncoat?)(?did they somehow signal to each other in daychat?)

Quinne:
- got a clearing check on Lois
- found a Neutral Evil check on Wilbird
- has been playing protown all game

Now putting all this together;

Lois says Marlwyn is scum.
Marlwyn says Lois is lying.
Quinne says Lois is Town.

Therefore, (but for a very small microchance of framing):
Marlwyn was scum.
Lois was Town.
Quinne is Town.

Combine that with examination of Marlwyn's actions and I am 99.5% convinced.
Quinne is confirmed Town in my book.
DO NOT LYNCH QUINNE.

Get the neutral evil.

-vote S-FM Marck Wilbird

so does lynching quinne before or after marck actually effect our chances of winning?

i personally dont think it does and i think we should stick to our original intended plan, and assume that quinne and the rest of the tprs are full of shit, because that's the safest way to play this

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

so does lynching quinne before or after marck actually effect our chances of winning?

i personally dont think it does and i think we should stick to our original intended plan, and assume that quinne and the rest of the tprs are full of shit, because that's the safest way to play this

Did you read the post?

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

im going to wait for ed to check in before throwing down my vote out of respect for his timezone

it's not like he'd be able to plan around this game with how late the days open back up

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Quinne basically can't be scum.
Either Lois or Marlwyn was.
And if Lois was then he was the Godfather which seems rather unlikely.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Did you read the post?

i did
i think it's entirely possible, or even likely that a framer would have targeted a very vocal member of the town

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Quinne basically can't be scum.
Either Lois or Marlwyn was.
And if Lois was then he was the Godfather which seems rather unlikely.

i think godfather!lois makes sense since that would allow him to go for that bold play

either way, do you think that lynching quinne before or after lynching marck has any effect on how likely we are to win this?

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

i think godfather!lois makes sense since that would allow him to go for that bold play

either way, do you think that lynching quinne before or after lynching marck has any effect on how likely we are to win this?

Then if you think Lois was godfather then Quinne and Marlwyn were Town.

I think lynching very high probability Townies is not a good idea fullstop.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Then if you think Lois was godfather then Quinne and Marlwyn were Town.

I think lynching very high probability Townies is not a good idea fullstop.

i dont think that lois was for sure godfather
there's basically zero information to go around here other than what our tprs claimed, and we can't confirm any of it
all im doing is considering the possibilities, and suggesting that we make the safest play since i dont want to be bamboozled by us bringing a tpr who may or may not be scum to the slugfest that is going to be lynching between citizen claims

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

i dont think that lois was for sure godfather
there's basically zero information to go around here other than what our tprs claimed, and we can't confirm any of it
all im doing is considering the possibilities, and suggesting that we make the safest play since i dont want to be bamboozled by us bringing a tpr who may or may not be scum to the slugfest that is going to be lynching between citizen claims

Statistically speaking the safest play is lynching Wilbird.
Ignoring everything else there's a 66% chance the person who accused him is Town.
There's a 33 chance the person who accused him is scum.

And that's before we take into account all the other evidence.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

i dont think that lois was for sure godfather
there's basically zero information to go around here other than what our tprs claimed, and we can't confirm any of it
all im doing is considering the possibilities, and suggesting that we make the safest play since i dont want to be bamboozled by us bringing a tpr who may or may not be scum to the slugfest that is going to be lynching between citizen claims

is it possible that lois was godfather or framed?
yes
is it possible quinne was feeding us shit?
yes
is it possible that mulan was framed?
yes

there's a ton of variables here and we can't confirm the presence of any of them, hence why i suggest going for what i believe to be the safest play and the original plan that like everyone except twinsells agreed upon

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Statistically speaking the safest play is lynching Wilbird.
Ignoring everything else there's a 66% chance the person who accused him is Town.
There's a 33 chance the person who accused him is scum.

And that's before we take into account all the other evidence.

we take 2 for 1 trades you said it yourself, that is optimal

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Let's not forget as Gollert loves to tell us; there is chance (albeit still small I think) that the NE has a gun. If so then it makes sense to lynch him now while our pool is larger.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

we take 2 for 1 trades you said it yourself, that is optimal

That was before we had all this other information. Now it is just killing a Town slot for nothing. We got the 1 in the first 2.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Please bear with me and read this post in detail.

The case of the 3 TPR CLAIMs;

There are only 2 support TPR slots in the setup.
3 people claimed those slots.
We can presume that any honest townie would counterclaim by now and that there are no further counterclaims to come.
Therefore, 2 out of 3 are Town and 1 is Scum/Mafia.
This much is confirmed and not news to anybody.

Next let's analyse each of the 3 claims;
Lois;
- grieved D1 because nobody would listen to him
- claimed Sheriff, and claimed Sheriff again by his replacement
- was checked by Quinne and came up as Town
- claimed had a positive check on Marlwyn as mafia

Marlwyn
- claimed Architect but could be Scumitect/framer
- claimed to use his night chat ability N1 with the confirmed disguiser (?convenient) (ie he could have had a conversation in mafia chat with him freeing himself up to frame)
- later forced into using his night chat with Fred on threat of death
- as soon as Fred uses his gun, Marlwyn then makes a night chat with Wilbird (who is now accused of being NE)(?was this Mafia making contact with Turncoat?)(?did they somehow signal to each other in daychat?)

Quinne:
- got a clearing check on Lois
- found a Neutral Evil check on Wilbird
- has been playing protown all game

Now putting all this together;

Lois says Marlwyn is scum.
Marlwyn says Lois is lying.
Quinne says Lois is Town.

Therefore, (but for a very small microchance of framing):
Marlwyn was scum.
Lois was Town.
Quinne is Town.

Combine that with examination of Marlwyn's actions and I am 99.5% convinced.
Quinne is confirmed Town in my book.
DO NOT LYNCH QUINNE.

Get the neutral evil.

-vote S-FM Marck Wilbird

You are being ridiculous if you actually believe Quinne's claim that I'm NE.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Let's not forget as Gollert loves to tell us; there is chance (albeit still small I think) that the NE has a gun. If so then it makes sense to lynch him now while our pool is larger.

That was before we had all this other information. Now it is just killing a Town slot for nothing. We got the 1 in the first 2.

if it is the off-chance that quinne is scum, then we are also lynching a probable town slot by lynch wilberd

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Statistically speaking the safest play is lynching Wilbird.
Ignoring everything else there's a 66% chance the person who accused him is Town.
There's a 33 chance the person who accused him is scum.

And that's before we take into account all the other evidence.

Statistically speaking, sure

Do you scumread me? Do you in any way think that I am scum over Quinne? Based off of my play this game?

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

if it is the off-chance that quinne is scum, then we are also lynching a probable town slot by lynch wilberd

I am 100% fine with my lynch, AFTER Quinne is taken care of. You can lynch me before Joha even, because scum will be down to NE and 1 mafia left at most. The order in which me and Joha go doesn't matter.

Lynching me today is a horrible play. I'm a citizen. If you leave Quinne alive, then there's likely 2 mafia, 1 NE and 1 NB left. Town loses majority.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Bart bb what are you doin

If you are town you have not thought this through.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

This is likeliest scenario about what happened

1) Quinne fakeclaimed sheriff to cc the 2 TPRs

2) Quinne framed Mulan, so that if the real sheriff checked them they'd come up as scum

3) Quinne then faked a check on me as neutral to destroy the one person who has worked hardest for town this game.

Kill Quinne. Then kill me. I'll see if I can't get Ganelon to let me suicide. Then you lynch Joha. Don't let it live.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Statistically speaking, sure

Do you scumread me? Do you in any way think that I am scum over Quinne? Based off of my play this game?

I scumread you D1 but since then you've seemed rather protown.
But the analysis says you are the NE and that seems more reliable here.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

@Bart

How does my play this game make ANY sense as neutral evil? How? Where has anything I done motivation wise made sense as neutral evil?

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

I scumread you D1 but since then you've seemed rather protown.
But the analysis says you are the NE and that seems more reliable here.

Then lynch me, but AFTER QUINNE IS LYNCHED AND 2/3 MAFIA ARE GUARANTEED DEAD

By leaving Quinne alive, you are AVOIDING THAT

@fred you are gonna have your work cut out figuring out who is town of who is left with you at the end

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Wrong Fred lol

Bart, you lynch Quinne in a flipless setup what do we know?

At most 1 mafia left

At most 1 NE left. With 8 players left in the game. You lynch me

You don't lynch Quinne, THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT TOWN HAS MAJORITY AFTER YOU LYNCH ME

This game is flipless. You can't just say "we're going to leave Quinne alive now"

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Then lynch me, but AFTER QUINNE IS LYNCHED AND 2/3 MAFIA ARE GUARANTEED DEAD

By leaving Quinne alive, you are AVOIDING THAT

this

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

I scumread you D1 but since then you've seemed rather protown.
But the analysis says you are the NE and that seems more reliable here.

I should also ask you this. What is your read on Quinne?

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

I want Bart to explain how Quinne (or a teammate) framing Mulan is a "microchance" of framing

Everyone mass claimed BEFORE the Lois check on Mulan. Quinne frames Mulan as it's very likely that Lois checks either Mulan or Quinne. It's a no brainer. It's the obvious play if mafia rolls a framer. That's not a microchance.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

I should also ask you this. What is your read on Quinne?

I had him as a soft town read early on due to some logical posts and reasoning particularly around the Disguiser role.
His Sheriff counterclaim looked whacky when he initially made it.
Since then he has generally behaved logically and been involved in the discussion.
On reads alone and not mechanics he would continue to be a soft Town read.