S-FM 319: ILLUMINΔTI (Ladder) 9P

[Dark Magician]

I'm echoing this.
+town point for you yzb.

I think You, YZB and Mesk are all Town.
Which by mathematics.
The Mafia is Frinckles/?
The Illuminati is MM/Renegade/MZ

I suggest for Frinckles to kill their mafia member tonight btw.
Especially if it’s not MZ, as we can get rid of them today.

[Renegade]

If Marino wants to lose the game by recanting n1 to let us know if there are Illuminati, I'm all for it. But it does make sense that he at least gets one check in before recanting.

[Auwt]

Rng gods love me. Back to rolling citizen, thank god

No way... Who could've thought this post from you?

[Dark Magician]

If Marino wants to lose the game by recanting n1 to let us know if there are Illuminati, I'm all for it. But it does make sense that he at least gets one check in before recanting.

No.
He suicides/Confirms no Illuminati tonight.
Delaying it would be too risky.
If we lynch Illuminati AKA MZ today, then however Martin can keep checking and doesn’t have to Suicide.

[Dark Magician]

No way... Who could've thought this post from you?

The fact you realize this means your town.

MZ, MM and Rene had a mental breakdown when they seen this and acted as if it was a newborn baby.

[Renegade]

Ok so I’m Hard Claiming Citizen.
My role is the most useless role for town in this setup.
I am the best ML for town.
I ain’t voting for anyone until I feel strongly on someone.
Also if Illuminate exists, don’t trust any other RT claims.

-vote Dark Magician

It is funny to see the dramatic course correction from DM and this entry post after the very poor reaction to it. Kind of like Disney Star Wars.

[Auwt]

I support yzb's motion to lynch you tomorrow if you recant tonight and don't die.
RECANT YOUR INTENT TO RECANT! At this point, you're nearly 100 % losing if you don't, which... you shouldn't be doing.

That's literally a no.
Watch him become a Jester.

[MattZed]

There’s also a good probability Mesk is Town PR faking Citizen.
So RN they are a Town Lean.

Why would you say this? If you actually think she's a TPR, you've started to blow her cover and make her a more likely night kill. If you think she's a cit, then you've made her look more suspicious: As you yourself said, cits are much more likely to be non-Illuminati than TPRs are. You think cit is a reliably town role, and you're putting it out there that maybe Mesk isn't one. If she's a townlean, why would you do that?

-vote Dark Magician

@Marshmallow Marshall , this is really the kind of post from DM that's bothering me. I just can't see a town perspective in it at all. I'm actually putting him in my "high effort scum" pile: he's not giving paragraphs, but he's actively trying to steer town in the wrong direction. The discredits/premature association of you/me, amplifying the views of probably-drunk Frinckles, and now casting doubt on one of his townlean's claims.

Instead of giving me your top TR?

I already posted my reads where MM was my only townread. (but right now I also have a bit of a townlean on yzb)

Ugh so many contradictory feels about Mesk.

Not a fan of the instant cit claim but I find myself liking the points she makes.

Please just vote someone. Either agree with me/MM that Mesk is suspicious and vote her, agree with Mesk that Me and MM are scummy, or follow your own instincts and go after someone else you think is suspicious. We can't afford to throw today away.

*moves a little bit closer to Matt's pocket*

I assume you meant "MM and Matt are in sync" given the context, not "Frinckles and Matt", because I am definetly not seeing the sync between you two xD.

The point about yzb's thoughts being simple mechanical ponderings that are purely NAI is a good one; however, what makes him towny imo is mostly his reaction to Martin's claim. Granted it's not a major townlean, though, and it's highly perishable (keep in a cool, dry place with a lot of future contributions).
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Renegade was rather against you pressuring people because "it's too early" and because "we're veterans trying to impose our vision of Mafia to the people" or something like that? I definetly agree that he needs to do more, but I don't see where you two agreed o.O.

Not sure which one of "soft scumread" and "scumlean" is the most scummy, btw.

Yeah, I meant you and me. Frinckles and I are NOT on the same wavelength, and I want to hear some followups from him when he gets back online.

Renegade was with me on the idea that cit claiming is scummy. I don't like how he's not willing to vote Mesk/DM for claiming cit and I'm puzzled by him being conflicted on Mesk, but when I made that posts I was just talking about how he agreed cit claims are at least a little scummy.

Given from how I’m seeing this.
Even though they aren’t saying it.
Both MM and Matt are applying that they top TR each other.

"Even though they aren't saying." Is anyone else hearing the blatant misrep? I posted reads on EVERYONE, and I believe MM has basically done the same. He's trying to make it sound like we're not giving opinions when we're basically the only two to give opinions on basically everyone.

wow, congratulations, he got me to post... even though i would have had to post anyways, since his call was 17 posts in and it's day 1. derpderpderp.
I don't know you IRL, so how do I know what your real life intelligence is like? so yeah, my image of you sitting with a helmet right now is totally based off how you're playing rn 😂. please display more intelligence in the game, this is a disappointing level for a ladder game.

Do you really expect us to believe you would have contributed exactly the same amount if you weren't pressured? As I've already explained, you're the type of player to respond to pressure. I'm not scumreading you *for responding,* but if you're town take a step back and realize that I got you to post thoughts on this game. I'm going to prod anyone I think I can get information out of, especially in a setup that allows so few misyeets.

@Renegade thoughts on DM?

I am also very interested to hear this.

I would be more into finding suspicious town behaviour.
Looking at each setup, there are 4 out of 6 setups that use pink scums. So 4x3 pink scums = 12 total outcomes
So it remains only 2 out of the 6 with red scums. So 2x2 red scums = 4 total outcomes

It is way less likely to find a red scum over a pink scum.
However finding a pink scum is much harder as they could share the same alignment as we do.
Anyway, even if we end up "random lynching" (i know we surely won't lol) hitting a pink scum should be easier than a red one.
A lot of wifom can be made in this setup as almost all the roles share the illuminati alignment in the different setups.

Your math is a little off: Setups A/D are twice as likely, so comparatively you're looking at something like 8 total red scum outcomes. It may be less likely, but there's still a very good chance of just finding mafia in setups A/D. (I agree that in setups B/C/E/F we're more likely to yeet Illuminati with how many of them there, though.)

[Auwt]

We've been mindmelding most of this game. Do you really think the cit claims are NAI?

I'm not saying "OMG LOCKSCUM," but the two cit claims are frankly the scummiest thing I've seen so far.

Honestly I don't think DM is looking that much scummy.
He had some good points through page 1 and page 2 iirc.
Now I must also admit that up to the time you made that post, Mesk hasn't done anything except her usual "i'm a citizen, blame rng".
I will have to keep an eye on it to see how this whole situation is unfolding.

[Auwt]

Your math is a little off: Setups A/D are twice as likely, so comparatively you're looking at something like 8 total red scum outcomes. It may be less likely, but there's still a very good chance of just finding mafia in setups A/D. (I agree that in setups B/C/E/F we're more likely to yeet Illuminati with how many of them there, though.)

How so?

[Auwt]

@FrostByte "maybe there is some hope for this site after all"
- S-FM AIVION

Mesk claiming cit is literally of no value whatsoever. It's like she didn't post. She'd post that as anything. Let's keep the WIFOM alive and move on.

The difference here is that Citizen could be pink.
And we would never know that.

[MattZed]

The fact is, if you end up Jester, you ain't gonna get lynched this game anyway with your claim, so you lose.
If you end up Amnesiac you should have to be lynched, and will most likely lose.
If you end up Survivor you ain't gonna get lynched, but we would never know your role and therefore could be considered as Jester/Amnesiac, so you might also lose.
If you end up killing yourself, so you lose.

Do you see it coming?

I will be honest, either way, with your claim, and the night action you want to do, you are almost certainly dooming yourself.
Now it's up to you.

I've already posted these thoughts myself, but I also hearing it from someone else. Minor towncred that this is one of the first things you react to.

I think he is sketchy. He seems to have already made up his mind on me, MM, and MZ based on less than 5 pages of content.

Too rigid, does that mean he is pushing an agenda? Open Wolfing? I don't know yet.

This post makes me feel a little better about Renegade. He's picking up on DM being scummy and noticing the same "open wolfing" I am. Renegade could be doing this as scum, but if me vs. DM is somehow a TvT, I don't see why he wouldn't support DM's discredit of me to make my misyeet far more likely. (and set up DM's for tomorrow) There's also the small possibility there's a Ren+DM scumteam, which is why:

@Renegade , if you really believe DM is being scummy, please vote him.

I'm echoing this.
+town point for you yzb.

Auwt continues to have the same sort of thoughts I did on the early pages.

Why would I be open wolfing? I’m doing quite the opposite actually.



This post here makes me truly feel Rene is scum.
Because
He never mentions anything about perhaps Lynching Illuminati today, as if he doesn’t want to.
He clearly wants me and Martin out of his road which I feel is scum indicative.
He throws shade but doesn’t vote.

"Oh no, someone's suspecting me, time to throw them into the scum pile!"

Wanting to get rid of Martin would be scum indicative (specifically Illuminati) BUT THAT ISN'T WHAT HE SAID. Renegade hasn't made a SINGLE post suggesting he wants to get rid of Martin. Instead, he's expressed the same frustration *as everyone else* at Martin suggesting he'd play against the non-Illuminati wincon.

DM, if you're actually non-Illuminati town, stop with the misreps. It's not helping your case, at all. In fact, you've jumped up to my #1 scumread.

That's literally a no.
Watch him become a Jester.

If Martin becomes a Jester, I don't see why we wouldn't yeet him. It would mean we're in setups A/D, so after he's gone, our worst case scenario is that we wake up D3 in a 3v2. (Worst-case being misyeet D1 and town dying to night kills N1 and N2) And I'd actually kind of like our odds in this scenario: We've either had masons or a mayor, and there's a decent chance they're alive and can help PoE/lead town. (It's very unlikely BOTH masons would be dead, and Mafia can't fakeclaim mayor)

Yeeting a confirmed neutral that *could* scumside in a setup like this is pretty much a no-brainer. I appreciate that you're trying to show him it's in his own best interest to not recant yet, though.

[MattZed]

How so?

Mike said he picked setups A/D with a 2/8 chance, and setups B/C/E/F with a 1/8 chance.

[MattZed]

For those of you who like readwalls:

MM - townread
Auwt - townlean
Renegade - townlean
yzb25 - townlean
Frinckles - null
Mesk - scumread
DM - scumread

(Martin pretty much confirmed CT at this point)

When I say "town," I mean town/non-Illuminati, depending on setup. If we do have an Illuminati, it's possible I've put the non-Illuminati mafia as a scumread, as they would likely think of themselves as scum. (Mesk, DM, if either of you want to admit to having a mafia partner, it's part of your wincon in setups B/C/E/F!)

My reads at the top/bottom of the list are more fixed. In the middle, I'm still looking to hear more: I want to see if Renegade's actually willing to vote DM, I want to see how yzb responds to everything that's happened since the first few pages, and I want to see how Frinckles answers my questions.

[Auwt]

Mike said he picked setups A/D with a 2/8 chance, and setups B/C/E/F with a 1/8 chance.

Oh well I didn't remember it.
Mb then.

[Dark Magician]

Yeah @MarshalMellow Marshal @Renegade

Listen to your bud Matt.
If you think I’m being scummy and want a good ML vote me.
Don’t worry, you have Matt’s approval for a full Illuminati driven wagon.

[Auwt]

hahaha xD yes lol matt is a tpr and mike is hosting the game

[Dark Magician]

For those of you who like readwalls:

MM - townread
Auwt - townlean
Renegade - townlean
yzb25 - townlean
Frinckles - null
Mesk - scumread
DM - scumread

(Martin pretty much confirmed CT at this point)

When I say "town," I mean town/non-Illuminati, depending on setup. If we do have an Illuminati, it's possible I've put the non-Illuminati mafia as a scumread, as they would likely think of themselves as scum. (Mesk, DM, if either of you want to admit to having a mafia partner, it's part of your wincon in setups B/C/E/F!)

My reads at the top/bottom of the list are more fixed. In the middle, I'm still looking to hear more: I want to see if Renegade's actually willing to vote DM, I want to see how yzb responds to everything that's happened since the first few pages, and I want to see how Frinckles answers my questions.

You love MM don’t yeah?
Citizen claims Scum Read, lol ok sure bud.

@Everyone
When MZ flips scum note that it makes MM look worse and Rene look semi-worse.
Don’t go clearly MM when I’m gone because it makes them look worse not better.

[Dark Magician]

Clearing*
Sorry, spelling error.

[Dark Magician]

The fact MZ throws Rene as a town lean is kinda pathetic because Rene hasn’t done much for someone to get to that point.

[Dark Magician]

Maybe a Gut TR but not a Lean TR.

[MattZed]

Yeah @MarshalMellow Marshal @Renegade

Listen to your bud Matt.
If you think I’m being scummy and want a good ML vote me.
Don’t worry, you have Matt’s approval for a full Illuminati driven wagon.

If you're actually town, DEFEND YOURSELF. We can't even safely afford a single misyeet in setups E/F. Why are you going after me/MM for our town contributions? Why are you using pre-flip associations D1? Why did you suggest Mesk is a TPR? Why did you misrep Renegade's position on Martin?

If you give another "just vote me" post I'm not moving my vote today.

[yzb25]

Thank you for the feedback. To clarify the second point, are you suggesting that the citi claims are good then? Or you just think it is obvious that citi claims are bad and that it doesn't need to be said?

everyone and their mum puts on a frown when mesk does her citi claim crap. It's not scummy perse, but it's definitely not worthy of townpoints. I find it v weird matt seemed to give you townpoints for that.

[MattZed]

You love MM don’t yeah?
Citizen claims Scum Read, lol ok sure bud.

@Everyone
When MZ flips scum note that it makes MM look worse and Rene look semi-worse.
Don’t go clearly MM when I’m gone because it makes them look worse not better.

I've listed multiple reasons why I scumread both of you, and it's not just the cit claiming.

Maybe a Gut TR but not a Lean TR.

What kind of imaginary hairs are you trying to split here? The difference between a "gut TR" and a "lean TR"?! I've explicitly said my read on Renegade can change based on his responses, and you're all "Matt has too much confidence in Ren OMG FAKE READ!" You're clearly reading my posts, so you KNOW Renegade is in the middle of my leans/nulls. If you're town, stop the misreps.

[Auwt]

There’s also a good probability Mesk is Town PR faking Citizen.
So RN they are a Town Lean.

I don't get it.
How did Mesk go from Null read to Town Lean ?
She could be faking anything.
Is it some sort of a leak or?

[yzb25]

I wrote this then decided to ask rene a Q first. I'm still catching up but it probably still captures my thoughts: ---


Here is the gist of my reactions to what happened after I left---

DM is a p solid townread for me rn. I find the interpretation by MM and Mattzed of his posts to be quite strange. Some of DM's logic is p wacky, but the wackyness is overstated. DM is contributing a lot of reads and reactions and asking questions of personal interest. Even putting the read aside, I'm not interested in lynching the slot today if his play is maintained.

Mesk also gets a townread, at least for now. She built a career on dodging any and all pressure in the early game. If she's here contributing, it's because she wants to - not because the twentieth early-game attempt to "pressure vote" her is magically working. She seemed genuinely salty about getting voted so fast, because now she thinks all her future contributions will be stained with a "mesk is only contributing because she was pushed to" - the early pressure vote denied her any opportunity to "prove herself", effectively. Also, this is my first game with mesk in years, but I like the new mesk a lot more. It's a lot more enjoyable to play with, tbh.

I'm less hot on MM/Mattzed. I can understand the usage of the word theatre, esp. for mattzed. But they've also played a big role in giving the game some life, and you kind of have to lay it on thick to get the game going. I've seen a lot of games die in the first few hours literally because ppl say "oh it's the first few hours we don't need to take this too seriously" and then the game dies lmao. MM gets a light townread for the time being. I'm not gonna give Matt a read cuz I've mis-scumread his early posts in the past for seeming too performative. I gotta think about that slot carefully.

[yzb25]

Anyway, suffice to say I am v weirded out by how hard DM is getting scumread. Maybe I'm missing smth but it looks like nonsense.

[MattZed]

everyone and their mum puts on a frown when mesk does her citi claim crap. It's not scummy perse, but it's definitely not worthy of townpoints. I find it v weird matt seemed to give you townpoints for that.

A cit claim is scummier in this setup than most. It's possible Illuminati don't control the night kill, so they'd want to make their own members look like cits. It's not a *strong* scum tell, but it was worth a vote with how early we were into the game. My main reason for scumreading Mesk atm is that she had a textbook OMGUS reaction to my pressure. My scumread on DM is mostly based on his repeated misreps and anti-town behavior, which I hope you can see. I also just can't relate to his posts at all.

We're past the point of only scumreading for cit claims.

As for Renegade, I gave him some light town points because I could see where he was coming from. He's picking up on the cit claims being scummy and on DM making no sense. I don't like that he's not voting DM, but that's not major scumpoints until a DM flip.

[yzb25]

A cit claim is scummier in this setup than most. It's possible Illuminati don't control the night kill, so they'd want to make their own members look like cits. It's not a *strong* scum tell, but it was worth a vote with how early we were into the game. My main reason for scumreading Mesk atm is that she had a textbook OMGUS reaction to my pressure. My scumread on DM is mostly based on his repeated misreps and anti-town behavior, which I hope you can see. I also just can't relate to his posts at all.

We're past the point of only scumreading for cit claims.

As for Renegade, I gave him some light town points because I could see where he was coming from. He's picking up on the cit claims being scummy and on DM making no sense. I don't like that he's not voting DM, but that's not major scumpoints until a DM flip.

mesk's behaviour is getting misinterpreted. She already gave herself an excuse of busyness when she signed for the thread. If she wanted to, she could have easily ignored the thread and let the pressure votes move to someone else. She's done that many games in the past. Her replying to you was not due to feeling "pressured". She was offended and grumpy.

[Auwt]

and when i say more focused on me, i mean, more focused on me rather than spending an equal amount of time on the neut claim, the other half cit claim... and just voting DM is easy shit cause he opened with a cit claim (don't steal my plays, sir, only a true citizen player can use this play) so... I'm gonna say MZ is exactly how MM read him last game, he appears like he's shopping for lynches. This time it just looks like MM is holding him by the arm as they walk down the aisle shopping together. Still unsure if voluntarily or bound by alignment

also... I don't trust neut claims FYI. NEVER TRUST A SURVIVOR. mod101

Why would you spend time on the neutral claim?
Martin has already explained his plan, and he isn't being counter claimed.
Lynching him D1 would be totally stupid as anyway he is going to provide us the info if there is or isn't pink scums.

That's why we are focusing on the Citizen claims, because there isn't any other claim.
We could still be RVSing, yet we have matter to talk about atm imo.
Now put yourself in my shoes.
What does make me believe you over DM (or the other way around) ?
Not that much, else?

[MattZed]

Anyway, suffice to say I am v weirded out by how hard DM is getting scumread. Maybe I'm missing smth but it looks like nonsense.

I'm literally the only one hard scumreading DM. MM and Renegade have their suspicions, but they're not voting or really applying pressure.

I honestly think he's a high-effort scum, and I see scum motivation in his posts. Yes, he has given thoughts and some prods, but they're shallow. No followup and certainly no vote. He has the most posts in the game right now, but how much has he really accomplished with them? If he's town, he should be a town leader with that many posts, but he's not. He's just posting a read here and there, (a good number of them crappy association reads) and tunneling me. He only puts suspsicion on people who have voted him or called him out already.

If he's town, why is he doing this? Like you, I can understand where he could see an association between me and MM. But that's where my understanding of his perspective stops. Why is he almost the only one here who didn't call out Martin for wanting to recant N1? (FWIW, I don't recall Mesk doing this either) Why did he cit claim? Why is he actively casting doubt on the people trying to lead town? Why is he misrepresenting everyone who's suspicious of him?

If you watched S-FM Eternia, he's reminding me a LOT of Mike from that game.

[yzb25]

mesk's behaviour is getting misinterpreted. She already gave herself an excuse of busyness when she signed for the thread. If she wanted to, she could have easily ignored the thread and let the pressure votes move to someone else. She's done that many games in the past. Her replying to you was not due to feeling "pressured". She was offended and grumpy.

Or at least, as far as I see.

The scummyness of cit claims are very contextual. It can be viewed as a TPR trying to self-shield, a citizen WIFOMing a TPR, or otherwise. That applies even in this setup. Sure, it can also give a mafia illuminati not an excuse to hit their illuminati teammate, sure. But we don't even have any idea whether there is an illuminati. Having that as your first thought is like making a pre-flip association read. And occam's razor says mesk is claiming citi for the exact reason she always claims citi. And DM is claiming citi because he genuinely thinks his wacky citi claim reasoning makes sense. If you simply said "honestly I was just stretching things to have an excuse to push her on the off chance my pressure works" that would make a lot more sense to me.

[Auwt]

@Auwt , sir, get your butt in here.... no one cares that you're sleeping, the game is the most important thing ever. you must come in here and contribute, time is ticking, it's 6 hours into the day, weooooweooooo scum alert, you're not participating... tsktsktsk

weooooweoooooo Citizen Mesk alert... tsktsktsk.

[MattZed]

mesk's behaviour is getting misinterpreted. She already gave herself an excuse of busyness when she signed for the thread. If she wanted to, she could have easily ignored the thread and let the pressure votes move to someone else. She's done that many games in the past. Her replying to you was not due to feeling "pressured". She was offended and grumpy.

I'm willing to re-read Mesk when she gets back in here, especially to see her thoughts on DM. I'll admit there was something that felt sincere, but that could also just be scum getting upset for being called into action. I also noticed she isn't behaving like she did last game when she was scum. (there she was basically trying to pocket me; now she's antagonizing me) But none of that is towny on it's own. I haven't seen a lot out of Mesk yet. But what little I have seen, I didn't like.

[yzb25]

If my understanding is correct, DM's stated reason for claiming citi because he believes most of the town randoms are actually TPR. So there's little incentive to try and shield as citi and he wants cred for a later possible CC war. He doesn't seem to believe mike when mike says he RNG'd the setup, given his insistence that slot 7 is scum - an insistence he's held onto since the pre-game.

Again, this is wacky. But it's consistent with beliefs he's held since the pre-game. He opened the thread with the citi claim and probably had it planned. I don't see the proposed theory about helping his illuminati godfather / consig as the natural goto theory.

[MartinGG99]

If there is illuminati and a townie dies N1, asssuming we mislynch today (which isn't very unlikely), the Illuminati instantly win. This is even more true if there's an illuminati Mayor, in which case we literally lose right away if there are illuminati.

This is actually wrong btw, for setup C and B at least if I were to recant n1 and die.

The non-illuminati mafia can night-kill the illuminati one, while the illuminati mafia can't night-kill the non-illuminati mafia.

And w/o an illuminati mayor, there'll be a no-lynch on D2 and the non-illuminati will kill the illuminati.

For setup C that means no illuminati night-kill on N2, and thus non-illuminati regain control/majority by D3 (presuming no Escort illuminati).

For setup B, the non-illuminati consig will kill the illuminati godfather, and the godfather does a kill in the non-illuminati. There will be no lynches on D3, but by D4 the non-illuminati will regain control as the former consig is now a new godfather which will restore the non-illuminati to power/majority.

I will concede that if there is an illuminati mayor, then in the described scenario you give, we instantly lose.

But hey, if you wanna lynch d1 and risk a mislynch then that's your problem not mine.

[MattZed]

Or at least, as far as I see.

The scummyness of cit claims are very contextual. It can be viewed as a TPR trying to self-shield, a citizen WIFOMing a TPR, or otherwise. That applies even in this setup. Sure, it can also give a mafia illuminati not an excuse to hit their illuminati teammate, sure. But we don't even have any idea whether there is an illuminati. Having that as your first thought is like making a pre-flip association read. And occam's razor says mesk is claiming citi for the exact reason she always claims citi. And DM is claiming citi because he genuinely thinks his wacky citi claim reasoning makes sense. If you simply said "honestly I was just stretching things to have an excuse to push her on the off chance my pressure works" that would make a lot more sense to me.

To be clear: my main reason for scumreading Mesk is that all she did was OMGUS in response to pressure. I've explained several times why cit claims are scummy in this setup. (on top of the usual reason that if you were actually TPR it later becomes a lot harder to believe unless you're a Mayor/Mason) I fully concede it's not a strong reason to scumread someone. *At the time*, it was the scummiest thing I saw. But right now, even if I dislike it, it's a much less important reason.

[yzb25]

This is actually wrong btw, for setup C and B at least if I were to recant n1 and die.

The non-illuminati mafia can night-kill the illuminati one, while the illuminati mafia can't night-kill the non-illuminati mafia.

And w/o an illuminati mayor, there'll be a no-lynch on D2 and the non-illuminati will kill the illuminati.

For setup C that means no illuminati night-kill on N2, and thus non-illuminati regain control/majority by D3 (presuming no Escort illuminati).

For setup B, the non-illuminati consig will kill the illuminati godfather, and the godfather does a kill in the non-illuminati. There will be no lynches on D3, but by D4 the non-illuminati will regain control as the former consig is now a new godfather which will restore the non-illuminati to power/majority.

I will concede that if there is an illuminati mayor, then in the described scenario you give, we instantly lose.

But hey, if you wanna lynch d1 and risk a mislynch then that's your problem not mine.

Exactly, this is our problem not yours. You're just here to take your 12.5% win possibility.

Wait, why are you posting again?

[MartinGG99]

I support yzb's motion to lynch you tomorrow if you recant tonight and don't die.
RECANT YOUR INTENT TO RECANT! At this point, you're nearly 100 % losing if you don't, which... you shouldn't be doing.

Hypothetical scenario:

D1 person sees guy who can be argued as anti-town

tunnels them d1 and d2

d3 hits and suddenly they don't have any info on anyone else because they were pushing solely the "anti-town" role while the mafia got 2 free night kills without much information to give off


^This also might be a good excuse for scum btw.

[MattZed]

If my understanding is correct, DM's stated reason for claiming citi because he believes most of the town randoms are actually TPR. So there's little incentive to try and shield as citi and he wants cred for a later possible CC war. He doesn't seem to believe mike when mike says he RNG'd the setup, given his insistence that slot 7 is scum - an insistence he's held onto since the pre-game.

Again, this is wacky. But it's consistent with beliefs he's held since the pre-game. He opened the thread with the citi claim and probably had it planned. I don't see the proposed theory about helping his illuminati godfather / consig as the natural goto theory.

I'M NOT SAYING A CIT CLAIMER HAS TO BE ILLUMINATI. The fact that they *can* be makes the claim scummier than usual, but that's it.

Let me say it again: I scumread DM because I see scum motivation in his posts. I would still have him as my top scumread right now if he didn't claim cit.

[yzb25]

listen martin, this isn't rocket science. If you make a single check, then with a check and two lynches the only way illuminati would exist is if both lynches and the check missed. that's like a (6/9)*(5/*(4/7) chance - it is blindingly obvious recanting night 2 has a far better winrate as a play.

And if you do something useful for us maybe we'll actually give a rat's ass about getting you your wincon.

[MartinGG99]

Exactly, this is our problem not yours. You're just here to take your 12.5% win possibility.

Wait, why are you posting again?

Because I enjoy making arguments in mafia setup at times. I mean, its preety boring if I just hardclaim d1 only to die n1 without much of a word lol.

[yzb25]

I'M NOT SAYING A CIT CLAIMER HAS TO BE ILLUMINATI. The fact that they *can* be makes the claim scummier than usual, but that's it.

Let me say it again: I scumread DM because I see scum motivation in his posts. I would still have him as my top scumread right now if he didn't claim cit.

I bring it up because I thought you did, but I apologize if I'm the real broken record here.

[MattZed]

Hypothetical scenario:

D1 person sees guy who can be argued as anti-town

tunnels them d1 and d2

d3 hits and suddenly they don't have any info on anyone else because they were pushing solely the "anti-town" role while the mafia got 2 free night kills without much information to give off


^This also might be a good excuse for scum btw.

I wholeheartedly agree a scum could tunnel onto you as an excuse to squeak by. I wish you had been quiet about it to give scum a chance to actually make that mistake, though.

But right now, why would I care about anything you have to say? You're not helping my wincon. If there's an Illuminati, you're suiciding the most powerful anti-Illuminati role. If there isn't an Illuminati, you've given me *no* reason to think you're going to townside if you even get the chance.

Please just listen to reason and try to recant N2 instead.

[MattZed]

@Auwt , what are your reads right now? You've given a lot of prods, but no accusations yet. If you don't have any *strong* reads right now, I'm totally fine just hearing your gutreads/leans.

[MartinGG99]

I still don't understand why you would recant N1.
Either you become neutral against the town.
Or you die with the only role able to find out a pink scum.

What's the deal?

Yeesh.

Yall sound like people don't like playing Town unless they have a win condition to do so.

Also, the "only role able to find pink scum" is the only role that can fail in doing so; i.e. find a false result.

If you have problems with so much of the setup relying on a single role's N1 decision, in a 9-player game, then maybe that's the setup's fault and not mine.

[MartinGG99]

If there's an Illuminati, you're suiciding the most powerful anti-Illuminati role. If there isn't an Illuminati, you've given me *no* reason to think you're going to townside if you even get the chance.

Please just listen to reason and try to recant N2 instead.

1. Says I haven't given you reason to believe I will townside

2. Tries to convince me to recant N2

Better question:

Will any of yall believe the N1 check result if it is positive?

I personally sure as hell wouldn't since it's 50/50 fake.

[MattZed]

Yeesh.

Yall sound like people don't like playing Town unless they have a win condition to do so.

Also, the "only role able to find pink scum" is the only role that can fail in doing so; i.e. find a false result.

If you have problems with so much of the setup relying on a single role's N1 decision, in a 9-player game, then maybe that's the setup's fault and not mine.

I designed this setup with the goal of every role having a 50% chance of winning. If you're content to take a 12.5% chance, I don't even.

Some setups have powerful roles that can greatly affect the setup by making dumb plays. Recanting N1 without having a STRONG belief that we're in setup A/D is like an Arsonist choosing not to douse someone for the WIFOM. Sure, you *could* do that, but it's plain to everyone that it's a suboptimal play.

[MattZed]

1. Says I haven't given you reason to believe I will townside

2. Tries to convince me to recant N2

Better question:

Will any of yall believe the N1 check result if it is positive?

I personally sure as hell wouldn't since it's 50/50 fake.

I would be VERY interested in the result of your N1 check. Of course it's not going to solve the game, but it could give a lot of info:

Did the person you check turn up Illuminati and get night killed at the same time? Probably no Illuminati this game

Did the person you check turn up not Illuminati and they claim Mayor? You've just confirmed we're in setup D.

Did the person you check turn up not Illuminati and they claim Mason? There's probably not an Illuminati, and we're in setup A/C.

Did someone turn up Illuminati, we didn't yeet them, and they didn't die the following night? They're probably not mafia because Mafia would likely kill an Illuminati-seeming partner.

There are *many* ways your information could be useful, even if it isn't proof.

[MartinGG99]

Recanting N1 without having a STRONG belief that we're in setup A/D is like an Arsonist choosing not to douse someone for the WIFOM. Sure, you *could* do that, but it's plain to everyone that it's a suboptimal play.

I suppose, in your view, that is somewhat similar.

But in that case the arsonist is quite aware of their win condition.

I am not, nor will I ever be. Heck, the conspiracy theorist is never sure of much of anything.

Let's say I never recant and we're in the A/D setups.

If I start saying "Hey, X towny player was checked as illuminati!"

Then I'm doing terrible things for the town, and that's more anti-town than I think my recant ever could be.

Not to mention, I will lose as well since I need to recant at some point in the A/D setups.

Or I get lynched because apparently people think that unless your win condition matches exactly as the town's, then that for some reason must mean my win condition mandates them losing.