S-FM 327 : Last Hope

[theoneceko]

town:
theoneceko (towniest)
lagattack
oberon
blinkskater
varcron (you need to post more)
crichard
pqrnhack
yuesford
zzorange (least towny)

templar:
wrath


scum:
frinckles
mm
numbertwo

i'm not 100% confident on this read list. i'm also not 100% sure frinckles is scum, but his lynch will provide massive info. yes, even more info than a yues lynch.

frinckles might be bussing yues as varcron said. if that's true, then i'm switching zzorange and numbertwo's spots.

[theoneceko]

who are the two incognito members watching this thread, it's rly triggering me rn

[theoneceko]

who are the two incognito members watching this thread, it's rly triggering me rn

@aamirus probably stalking me

[PQRnHack]

Wrath could be paired with Yues or could be Wrath/Frinckles or Wrath/Oberon.
Frinckles could be paired with Wrath.
or it's Yues/Blink + a 3rd (which could be Wrath but not Frinkles)
or it's Frinckles with some other 2

Yues could be Horror who went onto his own Shadow buddy Blink (such as to prevent investigations), village Blink would have reported this but shadow would not (and wouldnt even receive feedback if this shadow left their home).

What I don't like is that Yues has neither confirmed nor denied Frinckles's N1 investigation result. And I doubt scum!Frinckles correctly guessed townPR!Yues visitation (not only guessing the visitor but also their target), so Yues not counter-claiming Frinckles is sus.

If both Frinckles and Yues are town PRs, then Oberon/Wrath are scum.
If only Frinckles is PR, then Yues/Blink are scum, with 3rd being possibly Wrath.

But Templar is also in play

[theoneceko]

Wrath could be paired with Yues or could be Wrath/Frinckles or Wrath/Oberon.
Frinckles could be paired with Wrath.
or it's Yues/Blink + a 3rd (which could be Wrath but not Frinkles)
or it's Frinckles with some other 2

Yues could be Horror who went onto his own Shadow buddy Blink (such as to prevent investigations), village Blink would have reported this but shadow would not (and wouldnt even receive feedback if this shadow left their home).

What I don't like is that Yues has neither confirmed nor denied Frinckles's N1 investigation result. And I doubt scum!Frinckles correctly guessed townPR!Yues visitation (not only guessing the visitor but also their target), so Yues not counter-claiming Frinckles is sus.

If both Frinckles and Yues are town PRs, then Oberon/Wrath are scum.
If only Frinckles is PR, then Yues/Blink are scum, with 3rd being possibly Wrath.

But Templar is also in play

i can see frinckles bussing yues for easy town cred, just because i remember superjack and aamirus doing the exact same thing to renegade. frinckles, superjack, and aamirus are all good players. i hope you understand what i'm getting at.

[theoneceko]

@everyone

if scum busses, do they usually bus their weakest player??

[PQRnHack]

i can see frinckles bussing yues for easy town cred, just because i remember superjack and aamirus doing the exact same thing to renegade. frinckles, superjack, and aamirus are all good players. i hope you understand what i'm getting at.

That Frinckles/Yues/Blink solve would be too easy. Not buying it.

[theoneceko]

current vc:

Yuesford (3 [L-4]):
LagAttack, Frinckles, Marshmallow Marshall
Frinckles (5 [L-2]):
blinkskater, Numbertwo, Yuesford, CRichardForumLies, ZZorange
Marshmallow Marshall (1 [L-6]):
Oberon
CRichardForumLies (1 [L-6]):
PQRnHack

i wish the frinckles train looked more green, but i also understand the reluctance to lynch an archer that claimed to find two scum OWO

[theoneceko]

That Frinckles/Yues/Blink solve would be too easy. Not buying it.

i think frinckles/yues/blink is impossible. maybe frinckles/yues/mm, but blink is spewed town to me

spew spew

[Oberon]

what if yues is templar?

[Oberon]

I don't think it is, but interesting to think about. I think I'm not lynching Yues today, but Frinckles or Wrath, or even MM.

[PQRnHack]

if Yues is Templar, then Frinckles is a shadow So feel free to lynch Yues to confirm

[Oberon]

Wrath could be paired with Yues or could be Wrath/Frinckles or Wrath/Oberon.
Frinckles could be paired with Wrath.
or it's Yues/Blink + a 3rd (which could be Wrath but not Frinkles)
or it's Frinckles with some other 2

Yues could be Horror who went onto his own Shadow buddy Blink (such as to prevent investigations), village Blink would have reported this but shadow would not (and wouldnt even receive feedback if this shadow left their home).

What I don't like is that Yues has neither confirmed nor denied Frinckles's N1 investigation result. And I doubt scum!Frinckles correctly guessed townPR!Yues visitation (not only guessing the visitor but also their target), so Yues not counter-claiming Frinckles is sus.

If both Frinckles and Yues are town PRs, then Oberon/Wrath are scum.
If only Frinckles is PR, then Yues/Blink are scum, with 3rd being possibly Wrath.

But Templar is also in play

I don't like this either. It's possible Yues got visited by a Horror last night.

[Oberon]

if Yues is Templar, then Frinckles is a shadow So feel free to lynch Yues to confirm

100%

[PQRnHack]

If Yues flips town PR visiting Blink, then we know Oberon/Wrath are scum (shadows or shadow+templar).

[PQRnHack]

I don't like this either. It's possible Yues got visited by a Horror last night.

Then a town!Yues should have revealed this already! So that is not likely.

[Oberon]

Then a town!Yues should have revealed this already! So that is not likely.

Hmm true so he is either Magus or Scum? Lol

[theoneceko]

@PQRnHack is ur vote on crichard final lmao

who do u plan on voting at eod?

[PQRnHack]

Hmm true so he is either Magus or Scum? Lol

He is either a village role that did not play very optimally and did not counter hard enough or he is scum or he is Templar.

[PQRnHack]

@PQRnHack is ur vote on crichard final lmao

who do u plan on voting at eod?

-vote PQRnHack

[PQRnHack]

I'm gonna vote Wrath, even if he flips Templar, this gives another night for PR claims to verify themselves.

[theoneceko]

btw i don't want anyone to vote frinckles rn since he's at l-2.

[Oberon]

I'm gonna vote Wrath, even if he flips Templar, this gives another night for PR claims to verify themselves.

decent vote

[theoneceko]

decent vote

and frinckles said wrath won't be getting lynched today...

[PQRnHack]

That's assuming I'm the darkness? But what if I'm not.. Cos evil know I'm not the darkness.

I won't get too attached to this post, but this might be a funny joke in the case where Yues is Horror or Slime.

[PQRnHack]

and frinckles said wrath won't be getting lynched today...

prove Frinckles wrong hah

[theoneceko]

i don't think yues is jester bc he did nothing to look suspicious on day 1. he only started acting "like jester" when pushed

[theoneceko]

Anyway, listen carefully and clearly. I'll make this as concise as possible.

I am (was) the Archer. Last night I tracked Yuesford who visited Blinkskater.

I am now a Watchful Ranger. (Level up bruh )

We know some basic things:

We start with two heroes in this game.
-I would be one of them, the other is supposedly Wrath according to their claim.
We're pretty sure there was no Mafia hit last night.
-This lines up with the no kill and could be indicative that the shadows chose to level up a team member.
Blink has no made any sort of indication that he was leveled up as a townie. He claimed Villager D1.
-He briefly alluded to (randomly) being worried someone may have visited him.
Yuesford has already claimed the following:
-"I had no substantial information to give. What would I say?"

-----------

So what I'm getting at should be pretty apparent.

I'll add one more thing. I'm on the fence largely about how Wrath entered the thread in relation to Ozy. It comes off as scripted to me personally, but without the knowledge of who the other (real) hero would be, I can't really press it.



I'd keep the consideration that Blink has invested a good amount of time discrediting Wrath. In a SvS scenario, this could be useful. Make your teammate seem like scum to distance yourself, but also paint them as a neutral so the town wouldn't waste their time.

----------------

And that's all folks! Personally, I'll be voting Blinkskater here. I doubt they had a contingency planned incase I spotted the level-up occuring.

And at worst, I outted every power role in the game in one foul swoop. Have at it.

-vote Blinkskater

p.s. why did you doofuses lynch ozy, i said he was a wildcard not scum..

TLDR; Yuesford+Blink scum team goodluck finding the last & templar

you would only say this if your plan was to out the REAL power roles.

[theoneceko]

actually, that's not a scumslip. town!frinckles could've thought yues was a magus that leveled up blinkskater

[Lumi]

The hell, Frinckles is at L-2 while Yuesford is at L-4??

People saying that Frinckles is scum citing that they could see Frinckles pulling off a fake archer claim play??
Tonal reads, meta reads, okay sure whatever.

That is all ignoring the big question:

What is the upside for scum~Frinckles in his supposed fake archer claim on Yuesford->Blink?

Best Case?
Best case scenario for scum~Frinckles is town decides to just ignore the claim and lynch someone else. (Which almost happened thanks to Oberon's fake claim )
And Frinckles almost helped make that happen - but Frinckles making that happen also has a very clear town motivation as well as MM flipping town would:

• Confirm that MM wasn't lying about being roleblocked
• Prove Oberon was a the fake power role of the 3
• Therefore confirm Frinckles + Wrath are the two real power roles
• Therefore confirm that Yuesford is scum
• Which by extension means blink is scum 90% of the time

The play would have netted 3 of the 4 scum in one fell swoop from Frinckles pov. And people are calling him scum for it. At BEST it's NAI because it has a very clear town motive, but also has a clear scum motive of not lynching either of the people in the Frinckles vs Yues thunderdome.

Next Best Case?
Next best case is town believes Frinckles and then lynches Yues. Who from Frinckles POV is just a villager (unless Frinckles - Gargoyle, Blink - Scum, Yues - Magus. This was why I wanted to test what people on the Yues train were flexible in lynching either Yues or Blink - because if they were only interested in Yues and not Blink - that suggests some Gargoyle play could be going on. But Frinckles seemed pretty open to both and provided very good explanation for going for Yues first).

So from Frinckles POV, Yues is a villager. Yues gets lynched, then Frinckles goes next. Maybe Frinckles is Shaman, maybe his scummate is Shaman. There were no power role claims on day 1, so no easy Shaman link targets. So it's a 2 town for 1 scum play. Assuming there's a Shaman. And if there isn't he's just trading his life 1 for 1.

And the townie he'd be trading for is Yues. Who - no offense to Yues - hasn't exactly been a super helpful townie.

It just seems like a garbage low percentage play. If Frinckles does end up flipping scum here, I'm not going to think he is some mastermind that had me totally fooled with his master plan (unless there is some scenario that I haven't mentioned yet, but that seems very unlikely because I have even anticipated scum being the one leveled up to sticky impersonator by magus, to then become paladin to then check darkness and reveal as glorious master tomorrow to lead town off a cliff) - I'm going to think he's a madman with FPS who does low percentage plays to make the game interesting.

I am sticking to my Yuesford vote.
Anyone advocating for lynches outside the thunderdome are hyper-scummy as that's exactly what the scum among the Yuesford-Frinckles duo would want you to do.

Also there shouldn't be some bullshit 5 votes vs 3 votes plurality lynch by EoD. No "abstainers" just coasting along. People should be here at EoD in order to put their votes in and pick a side to give better VCA later. Not doing so is scummy.

Cutting the day short with a quick hammer would be suboptimal, so if you want to just cast your vote "in spirit" when someone is at L-2 or L-1 though, then do something obvious like

-in-spirit-vote Yuesford
-in-spirit-vote Frinckles

I think it's valuable to get people to pick a side on this one.

[Lumi]

And not that anyone else should really care, but on the plus side fmpov. If I'm right then it means I'm apparently better at this than all these veterans during my first game and blink can fuck off with his tunneling on me (although he probably won't since me being right implicates him as scum - so his best bet will be to double down on tunneling).

If I'm wrong then I'll almost certainly be pushed for a mislynch by blink, but w.e I'd just go afk since it means all my reads are wrong anyway and town will be at 6v3 after my mislynch, they can probably still win that. And if they don't then it's karma for my mislynch.

[theoneceko]

What is the upside for scum~Frinckles in his supposed fake archer claim on Yuesford->Blink?


Anyone advocating for lynches outside the thunderdome are hyper-scummy as that's exactly what the scum among the Yuesford-Frinckles duo would want you to do.

you must've not caught up with my posts on how scum!frinckles benefits by lynching yuesford.

oh, one more point about yuesford. scum!frinckles may have thought yuesford was a power role that was hiding behind my townie self.

not rly lol. i've townreads voting mm and wrath, who i believe are in a scumteam with frinckles.

[theoneceko]

you must've not caught up with my posts on how scum!frinckles benefits by lynching yuesford.

oh, one more point about yuesford. scum!frinckles may have thought yuesford was a power role that was hiding behind my townie self.

not rly lol. i've townreads voting mm and wrath, who i believe are in a scumteam with frinckles.

*and that's why scum!frinckles included yuesford in his fake "archer" lead

[Lumi]

The hell, Frinckles is at L-2 while Yuesford is at L-4??

People saying that Frinckles is scum citing that they could see Frinckles pulling off a fake archer claim play??
Tonal reads, meta reads, okay sure whatever.

That is all ignoring the big question:

What is the upside for scum~Frinckles in his supposed fake archer claim on Yuesford->Blink?

Best Case?
Best case scenario for scum~Frinckles is town decides to just ignore the claim and lynch someone else. (Which almost happened thanks to Oberon's fake claim )
And Frinckles almost helped make that happen - but Frinckles making that happen also has a very clear town motivation as well as MM flipping town would:

• Confirm that MM wasn't lying about being roleblocked
• Prove Oberon was a the fake power role of the 3
• Therefore confirm Frinckles + Wrath are the two real power roles
• Therefore confirm that Yuesford is scum
• Which by extension means blink is scum 90% of the time

The play would have netted 3 of the 4 scum in one fell swoop from Frinckles pov. And people are calling him scum for it. At BEST it's NAI because it has a very clear town motive, but also has a clear scum motive of not lynching either of the people in the Frinckles vs Yues thunderdome.

Next Best Case?
Next best case is town believes Frinckles and then lynches Yues. Who from Frinckles POV is just a villager (unless Frinckles - Gargoyle, Blink - Scum, Yues - Magus. This was why I wanted to test what people on the Yues train were flexible in lynching either Yues or Blink - because if they were only interested in Yues and not Blink - that suggests some Gargoyle play could be going on. But Frinckles seemed pretty open to both and provided very good explanation for going for Yues first).

So from Frinckles POV, Yues is a villager. Yues gets lynched, then Frinckles goes next. Maybe Frinckles is Shaman, maybe his scummate is Shaman. There were no power role claims on day 1, so no easy Shaman link targets. So it's a 2 town for 1 scum play. Assuming there's a Shaman. And if there isn't he's just trading his life 1 for 1.

And the townie he'd be trading for is Yues. Who - no offense to Yues - hasn't exactly been a super helpful townie.

It just seems like a garbage low percentage play. If Frinckles does end up flipping scum here, I'm not going to think he is some mastermind that had me totally fooled with his master plan (unless there is some scenario that I haven't mentioned yet, but that seems very unlikely because I have even anticipated scum being the one leveled up to sticky impersonator by magus, to then become paladin to then check darkness and reveal as glorious master tomorrow to lead town off a cliff) - I'm going to think he's a madman with FPS who does low percentage plays to make the game interesting.

I am sticking to my Yuesford vote.
Anyone advocating for lynches outside the thunderdome are hyper-scummy as that's exactly what the scum among the Yuesford-Frinckles duo would want you to do.

Also there shouldn't be some bullshit 5 votes vs 3 votes plurality lynch by EoD. No "abstainers" just coasting along. People should be here at EoD in order to put their votes in and pick a side to give better VCA later. Not doing so is scummy.

Cutting the day short with a quick hammer would be suboptimal, so if you want to just cast your vote "in spirit" when someone is at L-2 or L-1 though, then do something obvious like

-in-spirit-vote Yuesford
-in-spirit-vote Frinckles

I think it's valuable to get people to pick a side on this one.

Also I completely forgot that Frinckles actually opened the train on Blink, not Yues - even more reason to not suspect any Gargoyle shenanigans

[Lumi]

you must've not caught up with my posts on how scum!frinckles benefits by lynching yuesford.

oh, one more point about yuesford. scum!frinckles may have thought yuesford was a power role that was hiding behind my townie self.

not rly lol. i've townreads voting mm and wrath, who i believe are in a scumteam with frinckles.

I'm completely caught up.

I don't even remember seeing you explain how scum~frinckles going on Yuesford would benefit him. Could you quote it for me (or better, restate it succinctly for me?)

[Lumi]

The one explanation I saw you say was he was trying to figure out peoples roles? In order to out power roles to give scum a better shot at Magus?

Trying to figure out peoples roles looks solvy to me. Removing power roles + 1 villager (Yuesford in this scenario) + Templar from scum's PoE on the Magus hunt increases the chance of a Magus shot from 1 in 10 to 1 in 6.
10% to 16.67%. Taking the shot after that 6.67% increase is a low percentage play.

Implying that someone trying to solve peoples roles because of it seems a bit ridiculous, what's town supposed to do in this mechanics heavy game? Just treat it as a super-unfavored Mountainous game and only used tonal reads??

[theoneceko]

The one explanation I saw you say was he was trying to figure out peoples roles? In order to out power roles to give scum a better shot at Magus?

Trying to figure out peoples roles looks solvy to me. Removing power roles + 1 villager (Yuesford in this scenario) + Templar from scum's PoE on the Magus hunt increases the chance of a Magus shot from 1 in 10 to 1 in 6.
10% to 16.67%. Taking the shot after that 6.67% increase is a low percentage play.

Implying that someone trying to solve peoples roles because of it seems a bit ridiculous, what's town supposed to do in this mechanics heavy game? Just treat it as a super-unfavored Mountainous game and only used tonal reads??

bruh

[theoneceko]

wait @Oberon

will you vote frinckles later or are you sticking with mm?

[Lumi]

Based on the setup, I think there's even a case to be made for power roles (barring Magus) to just universally claim their role starting day 2.

That way scum are forced into the dilemma very early on of either having to not CC and then be outed scum if they're caught visiting later on, or CC some power role early on putting a spotlight directly on themselves.

The Magus blends in with the villagers - decreasing the PoE for Magus hunting from 1 in 10 to 1 in 7 (since presumably Templar would also CC a power role) is not so bad.

The only real downside to this is that it can become problematic if scum tries to de-level a "villager" who then proceeds to not die (although maybe then Magus could Ground Magus themself, if that's allowed? Does Ground Magus stop the Magus-Killer weapon? idk, not really worth going into too much speculation on something which is literally irrelevant at this point)

[Lumi]

I'm completely caught up.

I don't even remember seeing you explain how scum~frinckles going on Yuesford would benefit him. Could you quote it for me (or better, restate it succinctly for me?)

@theoneceko

[PQRnHack]

-vote WrathCyber

In the words of Blink, I'll take the bullet

[theoneceko]

@theoneceko

nope

[theoneceko]

Based on the setup, I think there's even a case to be made for power roles (barring Magus) to just universally claim their role starting day 2.

That way scum are forced into the dilemma very early on of either having to not CC and then be outed scum if they're caught visiting later on, or CC some power role early on putting a spotlight directly on themselves.

The Magus blends in with the villagers - decreasing the PoE for Magus hunting from 1 in 10 to 1 in 7 (since presumably Templar would also CC a power role) is not so bad.

The only real downside to this is that it can become problematic if scum tries to de-level a "villager" who then proceeds to not die (although maybe then Magus could Ground Magus themself, if that's allowed? Does Ground Magus stop the Magus-Killer weapon? idk, not really worth going into too much speculation on something which is literally irrelevant at this point)

yep

[theoneceko]

yep

which actually means frinckles claim could be legit. unless he's trying to out magus

hmm. this just makes a yues/frinck thunderdome look even better. answers so many questions...

[Lumi]

-vote WrathCyber

In the words of Blink, I'll take the bullet

scum points for avoiding weighing in on the thunderdome.

Reasoning in my previous posts.

Can get 90% refund on those scum points for picking a side in the thunderdome, even if it's jut an -in-spirit vote

[theoneceko]

ngl i hate the "in-spirit" thing.

this isn't based on lag's yuesford vote, but i will say this: lag is NOT an experienced fm player, but there's a possibility she's this good at scum. lag is better in the mod than i am

i thought she'd just afk as scum, but how would i know lol

OMGUS incoming >_>

there's no way im lynching lag today, but i wanted to lay out all my thoughts in case my lw gets cleaned by slime tonight

[theoneceko]

how did no one notice this yet??

mm claimed being rb'ed

Ice Magus:
Target 2 players at night. You will freeze the highest level role between them, roleblocking them.
@Auwt if Ice Magus targets two level 0's, what happens? Is the roleblock decided by RNG?

[PQRnHack]

Oh I noticed. Magus knows things that you don't

[Lumi]

I'm completely caught up.

I don't even remember seeing you explain how scum~frinckles going on Yuesford would benefit him. Could you quote it for me (or better, restate it succinctly for me?)

@theoneceko
UWOWU HEWWO!!!
@theoneceko
UWOWU HEWWO!!!
@theoneceko
UWOWU HEWWO!!!
@theoneceko
UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[Lumi]

how did no one notice this yet??

mm claimed being rb'ed

Ice Magus:
Target 2 players at night. You will freeze the highest level role between them, roleblocking them.
@Auwt if Ice Magus targets two level 0's, what happens? Is the roleblock decided by RNG?

I mentioned it in one of my previous posts, PQR literally asked Auwt about the mechanics of the tracker + all the Magus double target actions.

People have noticed - it's just not that interesting to talk about other than the fact that town~MM is telling Magus that their other RB target was also a villager