S-FM 302: Magellan (15p)

[S-FM Quinne]

i thought our plan was to no-lynch?
we have all the time in the world

lynch a tpr. coronor check tpr. coroner finds mafia. town gets multi-comfirmed town.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

i dont know how too answer

lois checked mulan and got a yucky result
jan is confirmed to be town and he's back

[S-FM Marlwyn Janson]

i just woke up
i thought someone asked you to check to see if you ever named yourself in chat? but i guess fred is already doing it

I did not. Sent him some Kpop, a link to a Sc2 tournament and told him to shoot something, to which he declined.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

But if they're framed then that result means nothing... right? Then we incorrectly use that result to assume that the 2 possible Sheriffs are confirmed.

I don't see any way to mechanically solve the love triangle.

Coroner sees role, framer only frames alignment

Mafia gave us a gift by not killing Jan

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

We are not lynching Quinne today

[S-FM Quinne]

Your village is shit!
You should lead the villagers to a new village.
Take these fucking golden plates

what did i just google

[S-FM Quinne]

We are not lynching Quinne today

How did I pocket you?

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

The I is going to vote Mulan anyway_. This seems to be a good course of action_. It will also provide vindication for the read the I provided early into the game_

-vote S-FM Marlwyn Janson

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

The I questions this plan_. It does not contribute to solving the game_

What does a nolynch provide for the collective here_[?]

uhhhh
well idk
perhaps lynching is best at this point

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

It seems we are now caught at an impasse.
We have no way of ever 100% figuring out who in the Love Triangle are what.
our TPR results may also be unreliable or even fabricated
Essentially all we have to go on then are our reads.
Lynching all 3 means killing 1 scum for 2 town.
DOES NOT COMPUTE. MY BRAIN BROKEN.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

We are not lynching Quinne today

So then you want to lynch new-Nick instead?

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

The I is at a logical impasse for how to proceed_

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

We have 2 Confirmed me and Jan. I have 0 CC plus I still have my shot easy to do not waisting it till I have to. MAfia may have 3 still we may still have a NE.
We only need 1 more confirmed town and it is a lock town win.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

It seems we are now caught at an impasse.
We have no way of ever 100% figuring out who in the Love Triangle are what.
our TPR results may also be unreliable or even fabricated
Essentially all we have to go on then are our reads.
Lynching all 3 means killing 1 scum for 2 town.
DOES NOT COMPUTE. MY BRAIN BROKEN.

Coroner will let us know which ones are town. Coroner sees roles. Framer only frames alignment, not role.

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

It seems we are now caught at an impasse.
We have no way of ever 100% figuring out who in the Love Triangle are what.
our TPR results may also be unreliable or even fabricated
Essentially all we have to go on then are our reads.
Lynching all 3 means killing 1 scum for 2 town.
DOES NOT COMPUTE. MY BRAIN BROKEN.

Is this not a positive outcome for the collective_[?]

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

We have 2 Confirmed me and Jan. I have 0 CC plus I still have my shot easy to do not waisting it till I have to. MAfia may have 3 still we may still have a NE.
We only need 1 more confirmed town and it is a lock town win.

Imagine if the fred unit is a turncoat_

[S-FM Marlwyn Janson]

Don't we just win if im lynched? I'm not following.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Coroner sees role, framer only frames alignment

Oh with their night ability they do, you're right, but not with their day ability. I see.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

what did i just google

Quinny Quinne
Do not fuck a baby
I'll get rid of your AIDS
If you fuck this frog

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

Imagine if the fred unit is a turncoat_

For reference even though this is possible the I does not consider it plausible_

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

How did I pocket you?

I am not town reading you. I dont want you lynched to day. The more info the better for town.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Don't we just win if im lynched? I'm not following.

Yeah but we want to escape with 1 confirmed town instead of lynching all 3 of you if possible. For maximum results

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

It seems we are now caught at an impasse.
We have no way of ever 100% figuring out who in the Love Triangle are what.
our TPR results may also be unreliable or even fabricated
Essentially all we have to go on then are our reads.
Lynching all 3 means killing 1 scum for 2 town.
DOES NOT COMPUTE. MY BRAIN BROKEN.

OK we have the NB lover andriod.

[S-FM Marlwyn Janson]

Yeah but we want to escape with 1 confirmed town instead of lynching all 3 of you if possible. For maximum results

..but my point is we win

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

I am not town reading you. I dont want you lynched to day. The more info the better for town.

Okay, so which do you prefer:

Lynch new-Nick
Lynch Mulan (who you read as town)
Skip day, have Quinne use their check and report back, then make a decision. Kick the can down the road

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

..but my point is we win

Yes. Yes we do.

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

here's the two scenarios that occur if mulan is lynched
mulan flips town
that means either quinne is lying, or that means lois is lying
if mulan flips scum
that means that lois and i are both green checks.

wait lois already did this didn't he?

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Is this not a positive outcome for the collective_[?]

Yes

Yes it is

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

here's the two scenarios that occur if mulan is lynched
mulan flips town
that means either quinne is lying, or that means lois is lying
if mulan flips scum
that means that lois and i are both green checks.

wait lois already did this didn't he?

Sort of yeah.

[S-FM Marlwyn Janson]

here's the two scenarios that occur if mulan is lynched
mulan flips town
that means either quinne is lying, or that means lois is lying
if mulan flips scum
that means that lois and i are both green checks.

wait lois already did this didn't he?

Only flaw is GF is immune to detection, but yes.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Is this not a positive outcome for the collective_[?]

I mean I suppose so.
It's unclear what the Town to Mafia ratios really are but I suppose a 2 for 1 trade is favourable. Maybe a 2.5 for 1 trade is still favourable.
Like I said math has never been my strong point.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

OK we have the NB lover andriod.

Actually, good call. Bart, time to fess up

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

I mean I suppose so.
It's unclear what the Town to Mafia ratios really are but I suppose a 2 for 1 trade is favourable. Maybe a 2.5 for 1 trade is still favourable.
Like I said math has never been my strong point.

3 mafia, 10 town
we take 2 for 1s every single time

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Actually, good call. Bart, time to fess up

lets force bart to make every hanmer unless he says otherwise

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

lets force bart to make every hanmer unless he says otherwise

I am teetering on the point of impatience with the neutral benign

If this day ends and they haven't revealed, once their hand is forced later we 100% lynch them.

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

Quinnie Quinn fucked the frog God gave him, and his AIDS went away! Then a great wizard named Moroni came down from the Starship Enterprise.

[S-FM Fred Attlebish]

Okay, so which do you prefer:

Lynch new-Nick
Lynch Mulan (who you read as town)
Skip day, have Quinne use their check and report back, then make a decision. Kick the can down the road

Well we dont have to lycnch as the corr can only check one person we dont have a check on d2 lynch. we have no fear of night.

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

Actually, good call. Bart, time to fess up

Damn I slip into Robot Speak for 1 line and you guys catch me.
START REBOOT.
UPDATE.
RUN DISGUISEOUT.EXE

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

I am teetering on the point of impatience with the neutral benign

If this day ends and they haven't revealed, once their hand is forced later we 100% lynch them.

agreed
a large amount of fun has been sucked out of the game when i realized how easy of a win on paper this is for us

[S-FM Gollert Twissell]

Spoiler : ISO of Lois if anyone is remotely interested :

Saying hello to signal that I'm here, my D1 activity might not be very meaningful since I need to catch up and due to extenuating circumstances. Let it be known that I will increase my activity in the days forward however.

I have adjusted my profile pic as that seemed to be an urgent task, I hope it is appropriate and to your liking. Apparently my predecessor has had a turbulent game, I will make sure to read it all in due time.

Okay so I have not been able to completely read D1 due to the amount of posts, I'm nearly there.. but I really wanna jump in and ask you, Bart, about your reads here:

1. Why are you condemning Goncales so much for jumping immediately into the current stage of the game? Would you rather he stay AFK until he has caught up with everything?

2. Do you really not see any worth at all in the posts that Mulan has made this game? The amount is a bit high for sure, but still.. I haven't read it all but I'm through 20 of 30 pages and there's definitely some stuff there.. would love a bit more elaboration.

1. Fair enough.

2. That may be true, I cannot confirm or deny, however, would you say that behaviour towards the latter half of the day should weigh more heavily into reads than behaviour displayed in the former half? Assuming that these endless streams you claim Marlwyn showed appeared more towards the end of the day..

Well that's interesting. (Had to say that, RIP Lois Francklyn Sr.)

Personally I don't agree with your read on Marlwyn for example, but I do believe that if you have really taken "offense" (if I may phrase it as that) to the things Marlwyn has said or done to you, that it'd impair your readings of their posts in a way to make you read them as scum. My personal conclusion on that one as I had a rather town lean on their posts in the first half of the day.

You know, I had half a mind to vote and put pressure on Korvin before D2 postings began, but I do think that Korver's behaviour fit the claim very well (disregarding setup mechanics for a second here) when looking at #631 where Korvin seems to respond quite attentively to Bart bringing up the Coroner. Since the Brookmonds share a night chat (and not a day chat) they could not have coordinated this exchange beforehand.

Okay, I was just about to make a post that my previous analysis could also be wrong if Korvin's plan was to setup a coroner claim all along and simply used Bart's post to crumb.. currently if it's Vladislow vs Korver I'd probably have more faith in Vladislow. I will not place my vote on Korver though because I'm going to bed. Keep me in mind on Korver though, thanks.

Yeah, actually. I think it's telling that you stuck your vote on me despite checking me and seeing that I'm town. Or that you went to check me at all considering your claim would CC mine if it ever came to narrowing down the roles in the game. Waste of a night action. What speaks in your favour according to my notes is that you seemed persistent in wanting to discuss whether the Sheriff claim made by my predecessor is true or not, which initially I thought was kind of suspicious and Goncales called out that behaviour as well. You kept being suspicious of my slot and warned others of me not being confirmed. But seeing as you claim Sheriff it actually all makes sense in a way (except for your night action going to me but I won't fault you for that). Either that.. or you decided to CC my slot right then and there and you're actually scum. And I can't throw out that possibility. Adding to that impression is you say my alignment is Town but the feedback I get from Sheriff checks says Loyal. I don't claim that this is an outright slip but I feel like this takes credibility away from it.. or maybe that's just me and my weird brain.

Funnily enough, before D2 started I was considering to retract my predecessor's claim of being Sheriff on the grounds that I wanted to avoid being roleblocked or even outright killed and thus fly more under my radar. But with the massclaim going on I'll tell you who I checked: @S-FM Lembird Oshay . His alignment turned up as Loyal. Reason I checked him is because I felt that there were slight inconsistencies from the conclusions he draws from his own arguments. First half of the day Lembird had a very defeatist attitude about not being able to vote and being unable to put pressure on anyone. And later on in the Jiles vs Lois argument that player continued to make posts that I felt were not offering a consistent narrative with conclusions that were coming from a place of logic. Since I was only around 15-20 pages into reading up on D1 and since I knew that Lembird hammered Jiles (even though they still claim that they would've lynched Lois more than Jiles so why not refrain from hammering?) I felt this warranted a check-up. I'm a little surprised that they turned up Loyal to be honest, but I'm fine with considering this slot to be an emotional player caught up in their view of what kind of guy old Lois was.

Well currently if I'm seeing the claims right it's not impossible for there to be two Sheriffs.. but then the Architect has to be a scum one.

On the Vlad vs Korvin matter:
Purely on my notes Korvin would be the more suspicious player simply because over my D1 readings I put down a few questionable points about his experience or claimed inexperience as a player. The question we have to ask ourselves is if Korvin acts and says things that are in line with his inexperience or if his inexperience is too over the top to be a true newer FM player. However the problem is that we won't be able to get a clear conclusion from this.

My general thoughts on that topic kinda lie in the direction that as a Sc2Mafia mod player he is all too clear about the mechanics of claiming and counter claiming but he is not clear on what to say or how to say things in a forum mafia game. This speaks to his inexperience. When prompted to name his top 3 mafia reads he was basically unable to give anything concrete. He has regularly shown behaviour of fence sitting throughout D1 and especially his first 10 posts or so scream of an insecurity in how to act as if he wasn't very sure of himself. But then he also makes posts like #731 where he's hypothetically arguing in defense of someone like Lois with arguments that are frankly a bit weird. If I didn't replace into Lois' slot I'd have said that Korvin is a new scum player trying to defend his teammate Lois. I wish it were that easy though.

Vladislow on the other hand I can't quite figure out but there was a standoff-ish stance of Lois on the whole Jiles vs Lois debate which I could relate to or see the argument of. Old Lois was a guy who stuck to his principles and ideals because he holds his own opinions in very high esteem. This rubbed a lot of people the wrong way thus clouding judgement of everyone's opinion on Lois. When I read Lois vs Jiles I thought that the argument Lois stuck to was the wrong one to make after a long while but Jiles would have still been very high on my lynch list because the way Jiles played out the exchanged seemed indicative of scum behaviour from my POV. Either way, after old Lois' ragequit and claimed Sheriff Vlad did put him high on his reads list simple due to the nature of the claim if I had to name a reason why. This seems consistent from a town POV.

Kinda rambled on a few lines on each of the players in the 1v1 with the conclusion that I don't have a clear conclusion. Who woulda thunk. If I had to lean one way though, and this is what I indicated before I went to bed earlier on this D2, it'd be that Vlad is more trustworthy. A bit.

Checking for possible scum roles. For example making sure that there's no scum Coroner possible and also nothing like a janitor. Closest thing I found is the Architect who is also a Framer and can either make a chat or change someone's investigative alignment. Was wondering if Jiles' alignment could already have been altered but if the Architect we have is a scum one then that result will have been unaltered. If we have a town Architect however that'd not rule out Jiles actually being scum. More likely to me is that the Architect is scum currently.

I'll be out and about for a while, checking back in a couple of hours I think.

10:45 AM

Okay folks, I'm getting visitors in a bit but I'll try to make my current position short:

Obviously we should pressure everyone to hard claim a role. At this point there's no way around it. Apart from that, currently I think Goncales and Holbird are definitely two people to take a closer look at. Getting scum vibes in ways that I don't have the time right now to elaborate. With Goncales I don't think I need to explain right now anyway and I fully back that current train and regarding Holbird I'll probably post a more in-depth read. Besides that I'm really curious about the interactions of Korvin vs Bart vs Vlad. Bart's interactions with those two stood out to me in peculiar ways.. anyone else? My intention is to definitely reread on that during the next night at the very latest, hopefully earlier.

Those are my current points of interest. Laters!

July 4th, 2020, 06:04 PM

You know, the only thing I can really offer after I've been reading here and there to catch up is.. Marlwyn sticks out like a scum Architect to me truth be told. It's either that or believing that Quinne is scum. Looking at motive and consistent behaviour so far though I'd be inclined to say that Quinne might actually legitimately be the second Sheriff. After all, would scum!Quinne have gone into night chat with his mafia teammates and hash out a plan that says to claim to have checked me, say the result is "Town" and then still place the vote on me?

I've liked Marlwyn's contributions from D1 to start of D2 but I'm starting to lose faith.


On the Goncales matter.. yeah, that slot is being played pretty rubbishly. Is that play indiciative of scum alignment though? Feels like a typical bad!Cit slot with the uncaring way of playing when the average player finds out they landed a "lame" role. I'm not really opposed to the lynch overall but are we going into this lynch thinking Goncales is scum or isn't it rather a mindset of "good riddance"?

The plan of "let's wait and see" regarding Korvin vs Vlad seems a bit.. I don't know.. thoughtless? I get the idea, I'm just wondering if we aren't disregarding night actions too much in interfering with the proposed plan. And when did a quickly thought of plan ever go down as planned? Need to take a closer look at all the possibilities of what could happen at night, especially regarding scum role actions and in what ways they could interfere. Personally I don't feel very safe in that area.

This post is giving me strong town vibes.

I'm simply worried that night actions might throw the current plan into chaos or falsify our conclusions but I do not have all the existing roles and their actions with OoO ingrained enough to see if we'll be 100% fine no matter what happens. It's just that nagging feeling that nothing ever works out as easily as it seems.

Regarding lynches.. tough. I'm not too sure about Goncales. It's not unusual for low-effort scum players to blend in as unassuming or uncaring citizens. I don't want to rule out Goncales but I'm trying to see the motivations of everyone that joined this train. Is it truly because everyone currently on Goncales believe him to be scum or isn't it because Goncales seemed like an easy person to lump their vote on? I'm not sure the votes would have piled on so quickly if Goncales truly were scum.. that might mean Goncales could also be a neutral role though. Unsure.

Personally I'd agree that rolling into a Citizen slot is freeing in a way. We all know that there's a certain type of FM player though that loves to play roles that have an impact during the night. You could say that type of player is probably better suited towards Sc2Mafia Mod games rather than FM games but they'll still sign up regularly. It is what it is.

Well, I think lynching either of them is obviously risky. The chance to hit the real coroner is 50/50 and the coroner is quite important to our available information pool. The interesting question to ask is this: If we lynch one of them, will we be able to prove anything? For example, we lynch the scum fake claimer, can the Coroner be roleblocked the following night to prevent his announcement? Would we wait another day to see if now the announcement will come through to prove their claim (since Consort RB is limited to one time)? What if the following night the coroner claim were killed? We wouldn't know if the coroner got killed by scum or if it was a Disguiser all along. We'd be losing a big information resource.

The way I see it lynching forces certain actions as consequence. Currently I'm not sure if the conclusions we can draw outweigh the potential loss of a coroner if we lynch one of them. I'd have to think it through more detailled. Not lynching might ensure the coroner staying alive for a while more. I think. Getting too tired right now to be honest.

Yo so I haven't read shit except for the fact that Vlad's. Let me announce my action and result:

I have checked S-FM Marlwyn Janson and they show up as "the Brookmond Alignment", for whatever reason feedback wasn't the same as listed in the Feedback section from the setup.

-vote S-FM Marlwyn Janson

I'm not even gonna entertain the possibility that Marlwyn's alignment was changed. Occam's razor and all. Either Quinne is fake claiming or Marlwyn is and Quinne is a hundred times more believable.

Obviously cause you were in a deadlock with Quinne and me. One of you has to be scum and I suspected you more strongly. According to my notes Quinne's D1 behaviour matches up with a Sheriff claim whereas with you and your Architect claim I had mixed feelings towards the end of D2. Now obviously Quinne might have crumbled their role really well but if I have to make an ISO of the relevant posts to show why Quinne's claim is more believable then so be it. Either way, you were high on my radar and resolving whether it's you or Quinne will bring useful information and of course get us one step closer to getting rid of scum.

For more insight I've already made it clear in #2712 that I was more suspicious of Marlwyn than of Quinne after the role claims.

Indeed, those are the rough possibilities. I will say that Vlad disguising as me is not super unlikely but my supposed "confirmed" town status due to the nature of the RQ was not 100% solid and considering I was in a three-way tie of getting lynched I am not sure I was the very best target for Vlad. Certainly a good one though.

Marlwyn being framed is a possiblity, however due to the fact that we haven't had two night chats at the same time it means that either there is just a Scumitect around or the Framer has used their framing ability twice in a row (or not at all). And I'd reckon it's a 50/50 flip from their POV on whether they'd frame Quinne or Marlwyn, my posts might have been hints. With the current information we have though I don't see why we should believe Marlwyn to not be scum and Quinne be scum.

Also a 4th possibility would be Vlad disuguising as Marlwyn but that's even more unlikely obviously.

Where the heck did I say that I was framed to look townie? Read again maybe or tell me what you mean but I have never said or believed that. Try again.

It's simple: N1 chat was a lie, N2 chat with Fred is real. You have used your framing ability on N1 and we don't know on who and on N2 you created an Architect chat to "confirm" your claim.

How does it imply this at all??? If you are scum then Quinne and I are town. And Quinne checked me and found out I was town because I am town. Your reasoning barely makes sense.

Ah right, I overlooked that part. Cheers.



Of course there's no way to actually disprove eachother because we don't have flips to confirm anything. The only thing we actually have is our critical thinking to realize what seems likely and what seems unlikely. It's improbable for Vlad to disguise as me. It's somewhat probable for a framer in the game to frame you as you might make for a convincing target. It's probable for Quinne to be Sheriff after my D1 notes. It's probable for you to have teamed up with Vlad to lie about your night chat.

I don't know how everyone else sees it but I think there are very convincing arguments that you're actually a Scumitect.

I'm heading out for a bit, catch you all later. I'll be back before going to bed for sure.

I'm getting lazier by the minute.

No he is not disguised, you can see his formatting is the same (colors and links, today he is using bolded text, which is new) when he prepares posts. He also routinely gives excuses for why he isn't in the thread chatting or telling us he's going to catch up.

+a little bit of scumminess for promising to come back in a couple of hours but not doing so until 8 hours later.

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

Let the collective consider for a moment the following scenario_

The neutral benign unit remains unclaimed_. One ensign of the Magellan <operating under the assumption the benign claimed to be an ensign> volunteers to be Quinnes next check_

The Quinne unit is forced into a scenario where they must accurately guess whether or not the unit is the real NB_. In the worst case scenario[,] the collective wastes a charge on the framer unit <which may no longer have charges>_

Discuss_

[S-FM Lembird Oshay]

Quinnie Quinn fucked the frog God gave him, and his AIDS went away! Then a great wizard named Moroni came down from the Starship Enterprise.

what?

[S-FM Bart Pilfter]

3 mafia, 10 town
we take 2 for 1s every single time

These were the starting odds, but they are not the current odds...

[S-FM Quinne]

@S-FM Lois Francklyn why did you check @S-FM Marlwyn Janson ?

You told me before, that using a counter claim on someone who CC you (Which is basically what S-FM Marlwyn Janson did to both of us) is a waste of a night action.
So you go against your own advise.
Why did you use your check on someone who, along with myself and yourself, are most likely gonna get lynched? (Unless the Coroner can save me)?

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

what?

And on the plates were written the directions to a new land: Sal Tlay Ka Siti!

[S-FM Jan Korvin]

@ Jan DO NOT USE YOUR PUBLIC REVIEL YET. SAve it. I want to see what happens tonight first. BUt check our d2 lynch.

But I need to confirm myself, correct? Or do you want to wait for that until later in the game?

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

As the I believes Bart to be the possible most likely neutral unit presently[,] the I would suggest the Quinne unit check the Bart unit tonight_. Return to us with your result_. Failure to follow the gambit will result in a lynch_. Failure to return with the proper alignment will result in a lynch_. This will also give the NB incentive to claim_

[S-FM Joha Schtilzt]

But I need to confirm myself, correct? Or do you want to wait for that until later in the game?

This unit is confirmed to be a coroner_. Coroner actions happen before a disguise_

[S-FM Jan Korvin]

To be fair, I was also wrong about Jan. Vlad played me a bit but I should have realized how aloof he was in our chat.

Yes, you were wrong about me, but after some thought and introspection I can understand how my pontificating could be misconstrued that way...

[S-FM Marck Wilbird]

But I need to confirm myself, correct? Or do you want to wait for that until later in the game?

You're already confirmed, but if you use it again it'll erase any doubt of host error due to OoO

So I say use it, there's literally no reason not to. You can't get night killed from here on out