S-FM 327 : Last Hope - Page 14
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  1. ISO #651

  2. ISO #652

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Fire Magus so bad
    Yes, a random use of its ability kills a villager 80.8% of the time, a Town Power Role 7.7% of the time, the Templar 3.8% of the time, and a Shadow 7.7% of the time

    Killing scum only 11.5% of the time means using the ability randomly is just asking to lose.

    It has utility as a pseudo-investigative ability. But it's definitely not something to be used early on

  3. ISO #653

  4. ISO #654

  5. ISO #655

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Varcron View Post
    Can you explain your POV on LagAttack? I'm pretty sure you've played with PQ before but I'm curious what drives you to think that Lag is scum.
    lag was the third voter on me
    plus, lag's read list is very long and that's a scum tell

  6. ISO #656

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by PQRnHack View Post
    Doesn't Templar as Survivor (lvl 2) only win with the Shadows (or solo at level 3)? Could always conspire to have the 7 villagers' voting numbers on Templar (to protect TPR) but I don't think we know who Templar is.
    wrath called lagattack and yuesford jesters for pretty awful reasons iirc.

    wrath may be softing templar lmao

  7. ISO #657

  8. ISO #658

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    I've seen a lot of templar talk during my skimming, why are we even bothering with any of that mumbo jumbo.

    Templar isn't going to reveal on day 1. I don't even think templar should even really be a topic of any discussion on day 1 either, waste of time.
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  9. ISO #659

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Given that we have Last Will's, I think that's the more reason to keep the Town Powers alive for as long as possible.
    Hence I suggest any Town Powers able of killing to never do it. Leave the necessity of killing off the PR's in the hands of the Shadows.
    1) This would mean that that the Shadows can never get their Terrible Prophet (kill).
    2) The only remaining killing roles for them would be:
    leveling down (can't kill a PR); Necromancer (can't use if no PR's are dead); the Impersonator (earliest kill is Night 4).
    Village has 4 ways to kill:
    1) Fire Magus
    2) Explosive Magus
    3) Relentless Justiciar (Kill) (LVL 2)
    4) Stealthy Assassin (Kill) (LVL 2)

    The only TPR that might be killing tonight is the Magus, and I agree that night 1 is definitely not the time to kill as the Magus

    But saying to never kill seems a bit much - you do make a good point though, if the shadows can only kill by leveling down and are starved of other methods, then it will be very difficult for them to actually eliminate people fast enough

  10. ISO #660

  11. ISO #661

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I've seen a lot of templar talk during my skimming, why are we even bothering with any of that mumbo jumbo.

    Templar isn't going to reveal on day 1. I don't even think templar should even really be a topic of any discussion on day 1 either, waste of time.
    especially if templar is a new player, like wrath. new players don't wanna get lynched day 1 lol

  12. ISO #662

  13. ISO #663

  14. ISO #664

  15. ISO #665

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I've seen a lot of templar talk during my skimming, why are we even bothering with any of that mumbo jumbo.

    Templar isn't going to reveal on day 1. I don't even think templar should even really be a topic of any discussion on day 1 either, waste of time.
    +1

  16. ISO #666

  17. ISO #667

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    Good morning. Glad I read 4 pages of everyone's takes and reads. Everything seems plausible atm, I do think we should leave our reads open-ended instead of concrete. Tunneling on players specifically and locking does not help our chances of winning especially. Seems to me as though we still need to wait for the lurkers/afkers who have not joined in order to gain a better read.
    bro how do u know this?? ur sounding too confident for a newbie yet again

    also, ur lack of response to my iso on you makes me think that you're scum trying to misdirect the flow of conversation

  18. ISO #668

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    +1
    keep it tbh, I remember a few players trying to paint you as templar or something which I didn't like or agree with. I feel like you are putting on some kind of dramatic show though. Can you tell me why you're voting Lag?
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  19. ISO #669

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I've seen a lot of templar talk during my skimming, why are we even bothering with any of that mumbo jumbo.

    Templar isn't going to reveal on day 1. I don't even think templar should even really be a topic of any discussion on day 1 either, waste of time.
    The thing with templar - if they were to reveal day 1. I think village would happily hammer them.

    But the only way they can lose is by:
    - Getting night killed at level 1. But getting night killed by shadows would require a big misplay on the part of the templar and the shadows. And the village should refrain from night kills for reasons discussed earlier.
    - Getting day killed at level 2. This is probably the most likely way they would lose. BUT it would have required either the Magus or the Darkness to level them up first - but Magus is going to be leveling up people that seem to be very townie, and Darkness really doesn't want to level up Templar either. The night immunity granted from level 2 is pretty underwhelming considering how few killing roles there are so I think Templar would actively avoid getting leveled up since it's probably easier to just win at level 1
    - All shadows dying while they're still alive with more than 2 town left.

    Templar would have to play really poorly to somehow manage to not win as they just have soooo many outs.

    Because they didn't take the easy win though - I have to assume that whoever is templar is likely more inclined to have a more antagonistic playstyle - opting to want to mess with the town rather than take the win

  20. ISO #670

  21. ISO #671

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    keep it tbh, I remember a few players trying to paint you as templar or something which I didn't like or agree with. I feel like you are putting on some kind of dramatic show though. Can you tell me why you're voting Lag?
    for sheeping and having a MAFIA-smelling reads list

  22. ISO #672

  23. ISO #673

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    also @Yuesford , since ur willing to let me "carry" you (even though i haven't played a good town game yet), please vote with me when i ask you to ;W;

    we can't find conclusive evidence on day 1, but fm's are rarely decided by conclusive evidence. they're based on reading how scummy people sound. social deduction is a much bigger part of the game in fm.

    no, u should NOT play like this is the arcade. you've to partake in the social deduction aspect of this game and posting your reads and thoughts on players. town only has three power roles (the rest are basically citizens), so we can't just rely on power roles to do the work

    !!!

  24. ISO #674

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    for sheeping and having a MAFIA-smelling reads list
    I have a few of my own thoughts on that. I also have an experienced player vibe coming from there whilst trying to wear the "New" persona.

    I toyed with that when I was on my LuckyDucky ALT and man oh man was it an easy way to manipulate players into thinking I was a newer towny.
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  25. ISO #675

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    In this setup where town has majority (10v3+1NE), It would at the very least take shadows until N4-N5 to get rid of most town and that's not accounting for the fact
    that elemental magus is constantly levelling other town members.

    AFAIK base shadow roles do not have killing abilities lv1 and must be leveled to have some sort of killing ability (e.g Terrible Prophet (Kill), Wicked Necromancer (All), and of course the faction leader Darkness (Kill, Roleblock, Utility). The probability of rolling these two roles discounting the fact of the shadow faction leader however, is:

    2/5 = 40% probability to role each role. Using Permutations (nPr) we can cut down having both roles to be n!/(n-r)! where n=both killing roles out of r=sample size of 5 to equate to 20% of having both killing roles

    however, even if Shadows somehow both rolled killing roles, to gain the killing ability for shadows that would mean Darkness would have to level them up one by one until n3, each night. This means that during that time he is not under leveling any town/heroes where the elemental magus would have the best advantage.


    On the other hand:
    During this time, elemental magus's focus should be on discerning whether if someone is hero or villager to best utilize their ability of levelling.
    Given each Hero spot, since there are 6 types of heroes, the expected value for having a wizard role given one spot is 1/6 = 0.16, and since there are 2 hero spots, from just the two spots we have an xR of 0.5 to upgrade one member one way. As I've said before, the best way to maximize town's winning chance is to have the priority of upgrading town into a hero. The more heroes there are, the more confirmations we can receive and the more utility we can use. TP roles such as Priest and Knight seems to be the best roles town should achieve, as both roles equally help confirm more than 2 town members immediately and greatly help the survivability of town.

  26. ISO #676

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I have a few of my own thoughts on that. I also have an experienced player vibe coming from there whilst trying to wear the "New" persona.

    I toyed with that when I was on my LuckyDucky ALT and man oh man was it an easy way to manipulate players into thinking I was a newer towny.
    There are at least four players in this game that can confirm that this is my first game of FM and not an alt (who has an alt that was created in 2013??)

    As I mentioned to Frinckles - I've played a lot of the mod, probably in the running for most in-person mafia played among anyone on the site, and have read guides + mafiascum wiki

  27. ISO #677

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    keep it tbh, I remember a few players trying to paint you as templar or something which I didn't like or agree with. I feel like you are putting on some kind of dramatic show though. Can you tell me why you're voting Lag?
    i genuinely thought he was a templar, but pretty quickly discarded that possibility and just accused oberon of being mafia. i wanted to see if any scum would jump on his wagon. ofc, i suck so nobody jumped on his wagon, although wrath heavily defended oberon bc of some "sixth sense" xD
    i agree with this. ur the first person to word oberon's actions this way, uwu hewwo!!! +town points

    i never say this about players in fm, but oberon legit looked like he was throwing a tantrum when ppl were questioning him. idk if he just wanted to draw attention to himself or if he was genuinely pissed off

  28. ISO #678

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    always a miss-lynch
    this is 4/6 so i'm not really worried.

    PQRnHack
    Varcron

    CRichardForumLie
    Numbertwo
    Blinkskater
    WrathCyber



    Put Ozy as my wildcard because he is gaslighting so fucking hard this game lol**
    (๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶

  29. ISO #679

  30. ISO #680

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    In this setup where town has majority (10v3+1NE), It would at the very least take shadows until N4-N5 to get rid of most town and that's not accounting for the fact
    that elemental magus is constantly levelling other town members.

    AFAIK base shadow roles do not have killing abilities lv1 and must be leveled to have some sort of killing ability (e.g Terrible Prophet (Kill), Wicked Necromancer (All), and of course the faction leader Darkness (Kill, Roleblock, Utility). The probability of rolling these two roles discounting the fact of the shadow faction leader however, is:

    2/5 = 40% probability to role each role. Using Permutations (nPr) we can cut down having both roles to be n!/(n-r)! where n=both killing roles out of r=sample size of 5 to equate to 20% of having both killing roles

    however, even if Shadows somehow both rolled killing roles, to gain the killing ability for shadows that would mean Darkness would have to level them up one by one until n3, each night. This means that during that time he is not under leveling any town/heroes where the elemental magus would have the best advantage.


    On the other hand:
    During this time, elemental magus's focus should be on discerning whether if someone is hero or villager to best utilize their ability of levelling.
    Given each Hero spot, since there are 6 types of heroes, the expected value for having a wizard role given one spot is 1/6 = 0.16, and since there are 2 hero spots, from just the two spots we have an xR of 0.5 to upgrade one member one way. As I've said before, the best way to maximize town's winning chance is to have the priority of upgrading town into a hero. The more heroes there are, the more confirmations we can receive and the more utility we can use. TP roles such as Priest and Knight seems to be the best roles town should achieve, as both roles equally help confirm more than 2 town members immediately and greatly help the survivability of town.
    I don't think Auwt mentioned that the shadows roles are selected without replacement - that is to say I think it is possible that they could have 2 fanatics.

    And you bring up a good point, that @OzyWho and I both missed - the fanatic doesn't have to save a shadow to level up, the darkness can just level them up directly

  31. ISO #681

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    I also do not think Lagattack nor ceko nor anyone else who is deciding to vote is making the right decision. I think Auwt added the decision of D1 lynching to test our ability to comprehend roles fully, and this you have all failed to perceive. It is not just a normal mafia game with scum, Town has abilities where they can level each other up. For this, I am skipping today's day and withdrawing my vote on Vacron as clearly town has the advantage. ELEMENTAL MAGUS should focus on leveling those that we've read as Town, e.g


    TheoneCeko
    Oberon


    [unvote]

  32. ISO #682

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    It's my first FM game, I'm catching up slowly

    Spite vote:
    -vote blinkskater


    [Current Post Progress: #80]
    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    No idea if you've been active later in the thread but I've noticed from the Vote Count thing that you've kept your vote on me. So I guess I'll keep my vote on you "not an RVS vote" based off of 4 posts while ignoring all of my follow up posts

    [Current Post Progress: #88]
    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    There are at least four players in this game that can confirm that this is my first game of FM and not an alt (who has an alt that was created in 2013??)

    As I mentioned to Frinckles - I've played a lot of the mod, probably in the running for most in-person mafia played among anyone on the site, and have read guides + mafiascum wiki
    I'm not sure if I buy it tbh, you could easily have played elsewhere. I didn't like your entrance into the game either complaining about having to read a bunch of posts in a forum mafia game, and another thing I noticed was the way you were slotting players into active/afk and town/scum reading them based of that which doesn't really require much thought.

    Can you tell me why you got so defensive and OMGUS voted me back when I voted you, and I said that it wasn't an RVS vote?
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  33. ISO #683

  34. ISO #684

  35. ISO #685

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    this is 4/6 so i'm not really worried.

    PQRnHack
    Varcron

    CRichardForumLie
    Numbertwo
    Blinkskater
    WrathCyber



    Put Ozy as my wildcard because he is gaslighting so fucking hard this game lol**
    If that's your scum POE I don't agree
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  36. ISO #686

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    I also do not think Lagattack nor ceko nor anyone else who is deciding to vote is making the right decision. I think Auwt added the decision of D1 lynching to test our ability to comprehend roles fully, and this you have all failed to perceive. It is not just a normal mafia game with scum, Town has abilities where they can level each other up. For this, I am skipping today's day and withdrawing my vote on Vacron as clearly town has the advantage. ELEMENTAL MAGUS should focus on leveling those that we've read as Town, e.g


    TheoneCeko
    Oberon


    [unvote]
    darkness can kill a villager every night. which is why all the villager claims are pissing me off

  37. ISO #687

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by WrathCyber View Post
    I also do not think Lagattack nor ceko nor anyone else who is deciding to vote is making the right decision. I think Auwt added the decision of D1 lynching to test our ability to comprehend roles fully, and this you have all failed to perceive. It is not just a normal mafia game with scum, Town has abilities where they can level each other up. For this, I am skipping today's day and withdrawing my vote on Vacron as clearly town has the advantage. ELEMENTAL MAGUS should focus on leveling those that we've read as Town, e.g


    TheoneCeko
    Oberon


    [unvote]
    Skipping is not possible, lynch is mandatory every day. Also day 1 lynch is standard in FM games

  38. ISO #688

  39. ISO #689

  40. ISO #690

  41. ISO #691

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    i genuinely thought he was a templar, but pretty quickly discarded that possibility and just accused oberon of being mafia. i wanted to see if any scum would jump on his wagon. ofc, i suck so nobody jumped on his wagon, although wrath heavily defended oberon bc of some "sixth sense" xD
    i agree with this. ur the first person to word oberon's actions this way, uwu hewwo!!! +town points

    i never say this about players in fm, but oberon legit looked like he was throwing a tantrum when ppl were questioning him. idk if he just wanted to draw attention to himself or if he was genuinely pissed off
    I do agree there it felt over dramatic even for Oberon, And I don't think it's a good look. Being overly defensive and dramatic usually doesn't come from level headed townies, although Oberon is far from level headed and townie :P
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  42. ISO #692

  43. ISO #693

  44. ISO #694

  45. ISO #695

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    i genuinely thought he was a templar, but pretty quickly discarded that possibility and just accused oberon of being mafia. i wanted to see if any scum would jump on his wagon. ofc, i suck so nobody jumped on his wagon, although wrath heavily defended oberon bc of some "sixth sense" xD
    i agree with this. ur the first person to word oberon's actions this way, uwu hewwo!!! +town points

    i never say this about players in fm, but oberon legit looked like he was throwing a tantrum when ppl were questioning him. idk if he just wanted to draw attention to himself or if he was genuinely pissed off
    I was extremely pissed because the case on me was literally nonsensical -.-

  46. ISO #696

  47. ISO #697

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    I was extremely pissed because the case on me was literally nonsensical -.-
    ur first posts are the type that elicit a lot of reactions because they deviated so heavily from the current topic.

    i still think varcron and lagattack are town tho. i believe they'd town reasons for voting you

  48. ISO #698

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    Well, pq and varcron are technically in the neutral zone.
    The bottom four are my main scum picks in no particular order.
    You should probably swap out #2 for Lag, I don't really remember anything the other two said tho tbh
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

  49. ISO #699

    Re: S-FM 327 : Last Hope

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I'm not sure if I buy it tbh, you could easily have played elsewhere. I didn't like your entrance into the game either complaining about having to read a bunch of posts in a forum mafia game, and another thing I noticed was the way you were slotting players into active/afk and town/scum reading them based of that which doesn't really require much thought.

    Can you tell me why you got so defensive and OMGUS voted me back when I voted you, and I said that it wasn't an RVS vote?
    You're legitimately claiming that I have been lying for weeks to everyone I've talked to about this being my first FM game? All to get some tiny edge?

    And then you're criticizing me for commenting on how many posts there were, and then proceeding to read every single one and respond to around 30 of them?

    And in the mod, and in real life mafia, scum tend to be more quiet - FM might be different. BUT even if it is different, if no one posted anything then village will surely lose, so in the absence of any FM experience, putting pressure on people that aren't contributing anything seems like a good play

    You're also ignoring all of my other posts which are 100% not "don't require much thought" posts

    Maybe, it's because you didn't bother to read the thread like I did, maybe that's because you're scum who isn't invested in the game?

    -vote blinkskater

  50. ISO #700

 

 

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