S-FM 338: Deck Mafia #008

[deathworlds]

I wanna shoot the first person who goes off reservation

if they're top wagon at an artifical EoD, then yeah, go nuts

[Seanzie]

yes. it's hard for scum to propose a plan that could actively backfire in their faces with very little room for error or recovery. Basically wolf?Seanzie doing this either needs to have a rock solid team behind him and an exit strategy should it blow up OR he's planning on just loosing a hail of shots and then getting shot/chopped, and that doesn't seem very wolf?Seanzie to me

When I wolf I propose the best possible mech plans I can think of, even if the plans hurt my team. I did this in Pixar where I tried to help town leash otherscumteam!Egix in order to have a second TK (when me and most of my wolf mates were in the PoE Egix would have been shooting into).

[PQRnHack]

@Seanzie i like your strat a lot more when we exclude our townreads from D1. The odds now shift in our favor. Who are your 3 to shoot? Or is it best to withhold this information till final 12 h? I am comfortable following your lead for now.

[PQRnHack]

When I wolf I propose the best possible mech plans I can think of, even if the plans hurt my team. I did this in Pixar where I tried to help town leash otherscumteam!Egix in order to have a second TK (when me and most of my wolf mates were in the PoE Egix would have been shooting into).

Also FYI I am town. I would appreciate your removing the vote in case there is some card messing with votes. Thank you. I am town and i need you to protect me tonight. Thank you!

[deathworlds]

@Seanzie i like your strat a lot more when we exclude our townreads from D1. The odds now shift in our favor. Who are your 3 to shoot? Or is it best to withhold this information till final 12 h? I am comfortable following your lead for now.

No.
In order for this to work we all have to be eligable.

Naturally our town reads shouldn't be the top wagons

[PQRnHack]

No.
In order for this to work we all have to be eligable.

Naturally our town reads shouldn't be the top wagons

No, what?

[PQRnHack]

No.
In order for this to work we all have to be eligable.

Naturally our town reads shouldn't be the top wagons

Maybe you misunderstood. Now that i have townreads, the odds of landing a scum shot are much better than RVS.

[deathworlds]

Maybe you misunderstood. Now that i have townreads, the odds of landing a scum shot are much better than RVS.

From YOUR perspective, maybe you're right with YOUR town reads.

[PQRnHack]

No.
In order for this to work we all have to be eligable.

Naturally our town reads shouldn't be the top wagons

We know we are not voting our townreads, which I now have. So our shot choice are restricted to potential scum pools. It's perfect!

[Seanzie]

@Seanzie i like your strat a lot more when we exclude our townreads from D1. The odds now shift in our favor. Who are your 3 to shoot? Or is it best to withhold this information till final 12 h? I am comfortable following your lead for now.

I don't know what you mean about excluding townreads. For the plan to work, people need to treat it like it is a normal TK. People's reads have an effect in as far as their vote has an effect, and no further.

If you're suggesting that you and I should try to find common townreads and exclude them from being shot D1... no.

Right now, I do not feel too strongly about any of my reads, but I have a fun little tinfoil that you and HK are wolfing together. Some of your posts have made me think you're town, but then you do weird things that make me think you're trying to tie me to you, and I don't really get your strong read on HK. How do you know HK isn't pocketing you here?

[Gikkle]

Okay, at this point, I am going to go to bed soon, but haven't heard any strong objections or requests for changes to the plan I proposed. In order to give people time to confirm they understand the plan, I'm going to lay it out now.

Since I did not hear any objections, I'm going to insist we go with the following ITA plan:

We will likely have enough ITAs to kill two extra people today. Here is how I propose we do it. Note that one facet of this plan is that while I will play some part in facilitating the plan, the plan is specifically designed to not have me have any extra power, so even if you don't townread me, you can trust the plan.

There will be two "artificial deadlines" added in addition to the EoD deadline. One will be at 11 pm EST on 1/24 (when ITAs become available), and one will be at 7am EST on 1/24 (4 hours before EoD). Whomever is the top wagon at these artificial EoDs will very likely be killed, so please take this seriously!!

At the first EoD, I will screenshot and post the current VC. If there is a tie, I will figure out who reached the "winning" number of votes first, so there is a unique person targeted. At that point I will ask people in the thread to ITA that person until they die. Hopefully they will die quickly so we can see their flip and re-evaluate before the second artificial EoD. The second artificial EoD will happen in the same way.

Any ITAs that do NOT respect the votecount of the first or second artificial deadline will be considered a scum claim. Do NOT shoot outside the two names we agree on as a group.

If you have read this plan and agree, please respond to this saying you agree. If you have questions, please ask well before the first artificial deadline.

If anyone knows they'll be available at 7am EST on 11/24 can you volunteer to facilitate the second artificial deadline (figure out who is the vote, and get anyone who hasn't used their ITA yet to shoot that person)? I can try to be up then, but that is very early for me, so if someone else can agree to do it, that would be much better for me.

Everyone else, please respond to this to agree to the plan.

Spoiler : tags :

@Marshmallow Marshalt @MartinGG99 @Stealthbomber16 @Mesk514 @Loldebite @deathworlds @Boba Fett @Gikkle @NotPaopan @hollowkatt @DoctorZeus @BradLand @Takumi Fujiwara @PQRnHack

suuurrreee
unless it's a personal townread of mine I don't really see why not

-unvote

[deathworlds]

If people start introducing their own biases into this plan it won't work. We ALL have to agree to this, regardless of whomever is the top wagon at the time.

Treat the plan as giving us two additional lynches/eliminations per day, then operate as normal.

[Seanzie]

suuurrreee
unless it's a personal townread of mine I don't really see why not

-unvote

Unfortunately to agree to the plan is to agree to potentially shoot a townread of yours if they are the decided vote. I know it sucks to have to agree to that, but the plan only works if people do not have agency over the ITAs. That includes not just the target, but the choice to not target. Of course, people can just choose to avoid the thread after the deadline and that is not preventable, but I ask every townie who can be available to donate their ITA to the plan, they do so.

[PQRnHack]

From YOUR perspective, maybe you're right with YOUR town reads.

PQR deathwolrds Seanz and Hllowkitty

I will not shoot those 4 so my choices are in the remaining 11 of 15, of whom i know 3 are mafia+3P so 4/11. Those are better odds than randoming, but still very bad unless we have solid scumreads! We need to deduce which are more likely scum.

[Gikkle]

If people start introducing their own biases into this plan it won't work. We ALL have to agree to this, regardless of whomever is the top wagon at the time.

Treat the plan as giving us two additional lynches/eliminations per day, then operate as normal.

If someone is willing to pull the trigger on someone they personally town read (more than light town) I'd find that quite concerning, honestly.

[PQRnHack]

I don't know what you mean about excluding townreads. For the plan to work, people need to treat it like it is a normal TK. People's reads have an effect in as far as their vote has an effect, and no further.

If you're suggesting that you and I should try to find common townreads and exclude them from being shot D1... no.

Right now, I do not feel too strongly about any of my reads, but I have a fun little tinfoil that you and HK are wolfing together. Some of your posts have made me think you're town, but then you do weird things that make me think you're trying to tie me to you, and I don't really get your strong read on HK. How do you know HK isn't pocketing you here?

Out of your mind my man. I believe you and 2 other people are town. The odds just went up for us. So I am way more open to your strat now than i was hours ago.

[deathworlds]

If someone is willing to pull the trigger on someone they personally town read (more than light town) I'd find that quite concerning, honestly.

People can always be wrong.
The only case where I could excuse it is if there's some sort of green check the person had on the potential ITA target.

[deathworlds]

I don't think people understand how beneficial this is to the whole of town if we can get everyone to agree to it.

The lynch is the best tool of the town to eliminate scum, by following the plan to the letter we give ourselves three times the ability to eliminate scum during the day, without giving the scum any way of manipulating it beyond their normal capacity of manipulating votes.

[Gikkle]

Unfortunately to agree to the plan is to agree to potentially shoot a townread of yours if they are the decided vote. I know it sucks to have to agree to that, but the plan only works if people do not have agency over the ITAs. That includes not just the target, but the choice to not target. Of course, people can just choose to avoid the thread after the deadline and that is not preventable, but I ask every townie who can be available to donate their ITA to the plan, they do so.

Ehhh. If I think someone is town (>light town) I'm not pulling the trigger. If the argument against them is good enough it won't come to that, though, I think.

[Seanzie]

If someone is willing to pull the trigger on someone they personally town read (more than light town) I'd find that quite concerning, honestly.

We can't tell the difference between someone abstaining from shooting because they truly townread the person and someone abstaining from shooting because they're scumbuddies. As such, we need to ask townpeople to put their personal reads aside and view the ITAs as simply extra TKs.

If you strongly townread someone and don't want them to get shot, petition against that wagon. If the thread still chooses them, then they need to be flipped.

[PQRnHack]

My pool of roaches to fry:
Boba Fett (i need to hear what other people know of this fella, suggesting that town would not follow thru town strat is REALLY REALLY BAD in my view)
Paopan (sorry, I approach each game with an unbiased mind, but you dug the grave here, i will be upset if this was your best attempt to improving your town game)

then i need some flips. depending on flips, we still have wildcards in: MM SB16 Mesk Lolde Gikkle

[PQRnHack]

Ehhh. If I think someone is town (>light town) I'm not pulling the trigger. If the argument against them is good enough it won't come to that, though, I think.

Vote me

[deathworlds]

We can't tell the difference between someone abstaining from shooting because they truly townread the person and someone abstaining from shooting because they're scumbuddies. As such, we need to ask townpeople to put their personal reads aside and view the ITAs as simply extra TKs.

If you strongly townread someone and don't want them to get shot, petition against that wagon. If the thread still chooses them, then they need to be flipped.

Sean is making a lot of sense here, especially with the first line.

[PQRnHack]

We can't tell the difference between someone abstaining from shooting because they truly townread the person and someone abstaining from shooting because they're scumbuddies. As such, we need to ask townpeople to put their personal reads aside and view the ITAs as simply extra TKs.

If you strongly townread someone and don't want them to get shot, petition against that wagon. If the thread still chooses them, then they need to be flipped.

Bro come on i was fixing my bathtub for 12 hours. ;)

[PQRnHack]

I will eat my shirt if we got this wrong but i think we got a towncore here and the scum are running

[PQRnHack]

Basically we have a wildcard in Brad slot. But all other slots demonstrated activity and have 0 excuse. So let's go with our strat.

[Gikkle]

People can always be wrong.
The only case where I could excuse it is if there's some sort of green check the person had on the potential ITA target.

People can be wrong, you are correct.

This is all entirely hypothetical, and it depends on me for some reason strongly disagreeing with the town's consensus, while simultaneously not being convinced by their arguments and at the same time not being able to argue this hypothetical strong town read of mine's case and convince people to move off of them.

[Takumi Fujiwara]

I stopped reading the thread for 3 hours and you guys lost it already.

[deathworlds]

I stopped reading the thread for 3 hours and you guys lost it already.

On the contrary I think we have found it, or at least sean and I, PQ and Gikkle have yet to completely agree

[PQRnHack]

People can be wrong, you are correct.

This is all entirely hypothetical, and it depends on me for some reason strongly disagreeing with the town's consensus, while simultaneously not being convinced by their arguments and at the same time not being able to argue this hypothetical strong town read of mine's case and convince people to move off of them.

Who are your candidates to lynch/shoot today? Your commentary has been really bad in my view.

[deathworlds]

People can be wrong, you are correct.

This is all entirely hypothetical, and it depends on me for some reason strongly disagreeing with the town's consensus, while simultaneously not being convinced by their arguments and at the same time not being able to argue this hypothetical strong town read of mine's case and convince people to move off of them.

In this one specific edgecase, can you let go of your own town read and subsume yourself to the will of the town?

[PQRnHack]

I stopped reading the thread for 3 hours and you guys lost it already.

What did we lose? And why do you say "you guys" instead of "us"? You not town?

[PQRnHack]

3rd time is the charm, right?

-vote Takumi Fujiwara

[PQRnHack]

@Takumi Fujiwara if you are town you gotta work with me here. we are about to make a big brain play and you have the biggest brain of them all. so get your butt (and brain) in here!

[hollowkatt]

When I wolf I propose the best possible mech plans I can think of, even if the plans hurt my team. I did this in Pixar where I tried to help town leash otherscumteam!Egix in order to have a second TK (when me and most of my wolf mates were in the PoE Egix would have been shooting into).

and now I'm slightly nervous.

[PQRnHack]

and now I'm slightly nervous.

Ah yes the dilemma I have faced before. What do you pick: a 90% ally or the fear of 10% deep wolf? And how should those odds affect our choices.

[Seanzie]

and now I'm slightly nervous.

I'm not sure I believe you.

[Gikkle]

We can't tell the difference between someone abstaining from shooting because they truly townread the person and someone abstaining from shooting because they're scumbuddies. As such, we need to ask townpeople to put their personal reads aside and view the ITAs as simply extra TKs.

If you strongly townread someone and don't want them to get shot, petition against that wagon. If the thread still chooses them, then they need to be flipped.

Well, I would think there would be a difference, inasmuch as I should be able to present a solid reason for persisting in my defiance of the town's consensus. If I'm just being stubborn, then you can start to wonder what my motivations truly are.

As for your second point, precisely why this whole thing is unlikely to happen - if I town read someone THAT strongly, either I have a good reason which I should be able to convince the town of to some degree or another, or I don't, and I should be convinced if I'm not hard headed. That doesn't mean this WON'T happen, though, for whatever reason.

[Seanzie]

I'm not sure I believe you.

Actually I do believe you... just don't think you're necessarily nervous about the thing your post implicitly implies you're nervous about.

[PQRnHack]

Ah yes the dilemma I have faced before. What do you pick: a 90% ally or the fear of 10% deep wolf? And how should those odds affect our choices.

Revealing my cards may not be good (or maybe will get me scumread) but i go with probabilities. And I AM HERE TO WIN WITH MY TOWN TEAM SO SCREW YOU 3P AND MAF. COME AT ME BROS. If this is the 10% deep wolf who fooled me, he probs deserves the win anyway.

[PQRnHack]

Well, I would think there would be a difference, inasmuch as I should be able to present a solid reason for persisting in my defiance of the town's consensus. If I'm just being stubborn, then you can start to wonder what my motivations truly are.

As for your second point, precisely why this whole thing is unlikely to happen - if I town read someone THAT strongly, either I have a good reason which I should be able to convince the town of to some degree or another, or I don't, and I should be convinced if I'm not hard headed. That doesn't mean this WON'T happen, though, for whatever reason.

I have begun to wonder.

-vote Gikkle

[PQRnHack]

I think Gikkle is a Neutral/3P.

[BradLand]

Praise the sun

[deathworlds]

Praise the sun

Hey BradLand

We're 20 pages into the game, have anything to contribute?

[PQRnHack]

Praise the sun

-vote BradLand

Showing of power when others (Gikkle) are weak. Outta here.

[Gikkle]

In this one specific edgecase, can you let go of your own town read and subsume yourself to the will of the town?

If I'm that strongly convinced of someone's townliness, I would definitely not shoot them.

[PQRnHack]

Praise the sun

I am probs the only rational person here cuz the rest are pacman players. In 5 sentences, how do we not lynch an inactive slot such as yours?

[PQRnHack]

If I'm that strongly convinced of someone's townliness, I would definitely not shoot them.

Name your top townlie people you are are not likely to shoot.

[hollowkatt]

I don't know what you mean about excluding townreads. For the plan to work, people need to treat it like it is a normal TK. People's reads have an effect in as far as their vote has an effect, and no further.

If you're suggesting that you and I should try to find common townreads and exclude them from being shot D1... no.

Right now, I do not feel too strongly about any of my reads, but I have a fun little tinfoil that you and HK are wolfing together. Some of your posts have made me think you're town, but then you do weird things that make me think you're trying to tie me to you, and I don't really get your strong read on HK. How do you know HK isn't pocketing you here?

hence this chain

My comments regarding you are truthful regardless of alignment. Integrity is important to me. Why is the burden on me to change your mind, when your only reason for scum-leaning me seems to be that I am capable of pocketing you via my defense of you as I did that one game where i was scum and you were town? You also know very well that you won as Scum against Town~me when I expressed similar thoughts that there was no solid lead to lynch you. You cannot cherry pick one case over the other and produce a scum-leaning assessment of me when you are well aware that I have expressed similar thoughts from either alignment.

But now you have some things to change my mind:
1. What prompted you to post the 13-player readslist this early?
2. You seem to view me as scum-lean based on one of several past games in which I kicked your butt. You also commented to deathworlds that they must have gotten fooled by scum~MM in the past and, perhaps, that is why they voted MM. It is silly to assume that Town players (except, maybe, you) would vote based on past losses. You do know that as town, we must set aside prejudice and bias and play to win THIS game, right?
3. Just so other people don't read much into this, I believe you referred to SB16 as "fellow" scum because you (scum)guys spanked me and Town in Politico. Correct me if I am wrong, and we have ourselves a two-fer

ily you're my new best friend

Way too affectionate and unilateral to be a pocketing attempt. Let's go TOWN!

I'd feel better if you had asked why

Like yes the reason is in bold above, I'm a sucker for "play the game in front of you" type posts, but if I'm dealing with someone who I've never encountered before I'm going to be more concerned with are they a baddie and are they trying to get in my good graces than if it were someone I'm more familiar with.

Not because I don't think my regulars could be pocketing but because it's a stranger that I've got zero baseline on.

The worry is mitigated because of an earlier exchange where he kinda pressed me on the whole LHF/Policy thing because he's right, PQR wasn't the topic of the policy conversation, it was Paopan.

But HK, you say, PQR is new to you, so where's the paranoia. My response to that is this: I didn't say all the reasons PQR reminds me of Ace.

[PQRnHack]

@hollowkatt @Seanzie stop debating, start collaborating. This is how we win.