S-FM 334 (Ladder): Once Upon a Town in the West (Small-Town Mafia) (13P)

[Loldebite]

right now.

65% attacked BG and healed (makes the most sense)
15% PQ has KPI and was RBed
15% loldebite is lying asf
5% they didn't kill

Oh? Care to give an instance? anyone you can associate with PQ?

You think scum attacking the ONE role they KNOW will get healed is the MOST LIKELY ? You've gotta be kidding ?

Who could we associate with PQR ? Oh no idea, if only he had bussed some people day 1 !

[Loldebite]

This is the type of misdirection they're pushing right now. They want you to think that it's plausible I was attacked when we it was put in-thread.





There are four Mafia members so look at the people who were around for that: Oberon, JMW, Auwt, Light, Oliver, Luona, Loldebite, PQR, Gikkle, Frinckles.
It was literally during the EOD. It was analyzed by multiple people. They knew I would be healed.



Surprise.

Now make an argument that Mafia chose not to kill and tell me why.

Auwt could have an interest in skipping a night kill as it makes him virtually confirmed until both whoever was my (hopefully for them town) target and townmyself get lyched.

[NotPaopan]

Now make an argument that Mafia chose not to kill and tell me why.

Proceeding with this purely out of logic will bite you in the end. If they don't attack. Or if they indeed attack. It's all about mind-games. You think you might be 1-2 steps ahead, but they might be 3-4 steps ahead already.

I prefer this

[Auwt]

Irrelevant question coming from the big 4

slot1: gikkle
slot2: oliver
slot3: loldebite
slot4: MM/PQ/Oberon/jmw

;)

Cannot agree more.

right now.

65% attacked BG and healed (makes the most sense)
15% PQ has KPI and was RBed
15% loldebite is lying asf
5% they didn't kill

Oh? Care to give an instance? anyone you can associate with PQ?

65% seems a bit too high.
5% seems a bit too low.
and PQ KPI & RBD is a bit low also.

Fair enough.

[PQRnHack]

So from my seat, the possibilities for why there was no kill are:
A. town~Doctor MM successfully protected BG Frinckles.
B. Mafia either chose not to attack or forgot to cast their night action. This seems unlikely.
C. scum~Escort Loldebite lied about their target and can thereby frame me or whoever they wanted. But it seems odd to chose CS to be the first town role to target for framing, especially since my flip would incriminate Loldebite. But they get plausible defense later on by claiming we are in scenario A or B (or D) and "oopsies".
D. scum~Coach Driver Luona swapped me with someone who is GF, then lied about targets in order to conceal the real roleblock and to frame a townie (me), with the plausible deniability later on that we are in scenario A, B, or C. If scum~CD did bus GF with me here, then it is compulsory to not reveal the true swap as that outs their GF. It is possible for GF to be the scum~Coach Driver herself (and swapping self with me to appear NS to Sheriff, to avoid vigi shot).

A is most probable in my view. To everyone else, it's between A and the scenario that im GF and got RBed, which is not terrible except when I know the latter to be false.

[Frinckles]

You think scum attacking the ONE role they KNOW will get healed is the MOST LIKELY ? You've gotta be kidding ?

Who could we associate with PQR ? Oh no idea, if only he had bussed some people day 1 !

If you want to really get in depth about who could be associated with PQR, Auwt makes sense.

PQR has been avoiding interacting with him lately and Auwt is trying his hardest to dissasociate from him after both of them went hard after Gikkle yesterday.

Gikkle could have some scum equity, but then we'd have to suppose he was bussed there pretty hard. Also, if my reasoning is correct, PQR was given the Mafia factional kill because nobody would think to roleblock him. If Gikkle were scum it would also make sense for him to be given the Mafia kill as he doesn't technically have an ability yet but this seemingly wasn't the case.

I've decided to keep the idea of you or Luona lying simplified because it introduced 10 billion complicated problems. Both of you, as soon as you got online, provided a reasonable explanation for your actions.

At no point in time was Luona told to swap MM specifically with Oliver, but it was the correct play 100%. She's been amicable and helpful since I got over my BDphobia on D1.

At no point in time was PQR suspected to be roleblocked, because there was no plausible reason as to why he would be. Everyone who could provide feedback did. You never technically counterclaimed anyone's feedback, which I somewhat expected to happen.

AND IF IM BEING HONEST. PQR has been on the bottom half of my readslist since D1. So to me, this all fits into place well.

[Loldebite]

So from my seat, the possibilities for why there was no kill are:
A. town~Doctor MM successfully protected BG Frinckles.
B. Mafia either chose not to attack or forgot to cast their night action. This seems unlikely.
C. scum~Escort Loldebite lied about their target and can thereby frame me or whoever they wanted. But it seems odd to chose CS to be the first town role to target for framing, especially since my flip would incriminate Loldebite. But they get plausible defense later on by claiming we are in scenario A or B (or D) and "oopsies".
D. scum~Coach Driver Luona swapped me with someone who is GF, then lied about targets in order to conceal the real roleblock and to frame a townie (me), with the plausible deniability later on that we are in scenario A, B, or C. If scum~CD did bus GF with me here, then it is compulsory to not reveal the true swap as that outs their GF. It is possible for GF to be the scum~Coach Driver herself (and swapping self with me to appear NS to Sheriff, to avoid vigi shot).

A is most probable in my view. To everyone else, it's between A and the scenario that im GF and got RBed, which is not terrible except when I know the latter to be false.

What do you mean GF ? I don't believe any bandits has built-in night immunity.

[PQRnHack]

Now that I think about it, it is possible that we are in scenario B and mafia team does not include Escort and is attempting a two-fer gambit whereby anyone that Escort visited will be suspect and so they can lynch me D2 and then have town~Escort vig-killed or voted off D3? And there are already people "concluding" that I must be GF, so this might be quite a brilliant big brain play there.

[Gikkle]

So from my seat, the possibilities for why there was no kill are:
A. town~Doctor MM successfully protected BG Frinckles.
B. Mafia either chose not to attack or forgot to cast their night action. This seems unlikely.
C. scum~Escort Loldebite lied about their target and can thereby frame me or whoever they wanted. But it seems odd to chose CS to be the first town role to target for framing, especially since my flip would incriminate Loldebite. But they get plausible defense later on by claiming we are in scenario A or B (or D) and "oopsies".
D. scum~Coach Driver Luona swapped me with someone who is GF, then lied about targets in order to conceal the real roleblock and to frame a townie (me), with the plausible deniability later on that we are in scenario A, B, or C. If scum~CD did bus GF with me here, then it is compulsory to not reveal the true swap as that outs their GF. It is possible for GF to be the scum~Coach Driver herself (and swapping self with me to appear NS to Sheriff, to avoid vigi shot).

A is most probable in my view. To everyone else, it's between A and the scenario that im GF and got RBed, which is not terrible except when I know the latter to be false.

Doesn't roleblocker go before coach driver, and thus it can't be redirected?

[Gikkle]

Wow he explained it this is so bad

-vote gikkle

If you look at the explanation he gave, it is not a real explanation. It could be made by anyone.

[PQRnHack]

What do you mean GF ? I don't believe any bandits has built-in night immunity.

I did not suggest immunity. I mean the person doing the night kill for mafia (the one who can be RBed and result in no night-kill). I see people using "KPI", whatever that means. In my line of work, that's Key Performance Indicators Killing Power something?

[Frinckles]

Proceeding with this purely out of logic will bite you in the end. If they don't attack. Or if they indeed attack. It's all about mind-games. You think you might be 1-2 steps ahead, but they might be 3-4 steps ahead already.

I prefer this

True. If PQR+Auwt really are on a team together that's scary on it's own but it does make some sense. I understand you appreciate them because they voted with you on Gikkle but consider alternatives to the Thunderdome you've been indulging in.

So from my seat, the possibilities for why there was no kill are:
A. town~Doctor MM successfully protected BG Frinckles.
B. Mafia either chose not to attack or forgot to cast their night action. This seems unlikely.
C. scum~Escort Loldebite lied about their target and can thereby frame me or whoever they wanted. But it seems odd to chose CS to be the first town role to target for framing, especially since my flip would incriminate Loldebite. But they get plausible defense later on by claiming we are in scenario A or B (or D) and "oopsies".
D. scum~Coach Driver Luona swapped me with someone who is GF, then lied about targets in order to conceal the real roleblock and to frame a townie (me), with the plausible deniability later on that we are in scenario A, B, or C. If scum~CD did bus GF with me here, then it is compulsory to not reveal the true swap as that outs their GF. It is possible for GF to be the scum~Coach Driver herself (and swapping self with me to appear NS to Sheriff, to avoid vigi shot).

A is most probable in my view. To everyone else, it's between A and the scenario that im GF and got RBed, which is not terrible except when I know the latter to be false.

A: Extremely unlikely.
B: Unlikely.
C: I'm Loldebite will be lynched or Oberon will jail+kill him if you flip town.
D: Luona is locked into a protection chain with me and MM. If at any point MM is dead, she dies. Thanks quoting me verbatim D1 about scum plausible deniability from a BD. Yet, you ignored my requests D1 to lynch Luona in favor of keeping it around, didn't you?

[Loldebite]

If you want to really get in depth about who could be associated with PQR, Auwt makes sense.

PQR has been avoiding interacting with him lately and Auwt is trying his hardest to dissasociate from him after both of them went hard after Gikkle yesterday.

Gikkle could have some scum equity, but then we'd have to suppose he was bussed there pretty hard. Also, if my reasoning is correct, PQR was given the Mafia factional kill because nobody would think to roleblock him. If Gikkle were scum it would also make sense for him to be given the Mafia kill as he doesn't technically have an ability yet but this seemingly wasn't the case.

I've decided to keep the idea of you or Luona lying simplified because it introduced 10 billion complicated problems. Both of you, as soon as you got online, provided a reasonable explanation for your actions.

At no point in time was Luona told to swap MM specifically with Oliver, but it was the correct play 100%. She's been amicable and helpful since I got over my BDphobia on D1.

At no point in time was PQR suspected to be roleblocked, because there was no plausible reason as to why he would be. Everyone who could provide feedback did. You never technically counterclaimed anyone's feedback, which I somewhat expected to happen.

AND IF IM BEING HONEST. PQR has been on the bottom half of my readslist since D1. So to me, this all fits into place well.

I think auwt is scum with PQR only if they skipped the kill. Because yes, even if PQR is actually scum, they might've skipped a kill and i happened to block scumPQR by luck...

I am starting to think they skipping the quite is quite likely, actually. Less likely than PQR getting c*ckblocked but i'd put it more likely than scum targetting BG

[NotPaopan]

@Frinckles . It doesnt make any sense. Why would they insist on the Gikkle train when they could've just joined my train. Lol

[PQRnHack]

Doesn't roleblocker go before coach driver, and thus it can't be redirected?

I was wrong, you are correct.

Coach Driver

The Veteran is swapped with the Mayor by the Coach Driver. The Doctor, the Lookout, the Vigilante, the Escort, the Bodyguard, the Sheriff, and the Survivalist Bandit all target the Mayor. The Jailor jailed the Mayor during the day and chooses to execute. The Card Sharp invited the Mayor to a card game during the day. What happens?
The Card Sharp is notified that the Mayor cannot join the card game at the start of the night.
The Mayor is jailed by the Jailor at the start of the night.
The Coach Driver, the Doctor, the Vigilante, and the Sheriff all die to the Veteran.
The Survivalist and the Bodyguard die to both the Veteran and the Bodyguard duel.
The Lookout sees the Coach Driver, the Escort, and the Jailor visit the Mayor.
The Mayor is roleblocked by the Escort.
The Mayor is executed by the Jailor.

[Frinckles]

Doesn't roleblocker go before coach driver, and thus it can't be redirected?

Good catch, that's how I read it too. Anyone else want to take a look?

[Frinckles]

@Frinckles . It doesnt make any sense. Why would they insist on the Gikkle train when they could've just joined my train. Lol

Well, are you town? If you are, why do you think scum would want to jump onto a town-mayor-lynch at the last minute?

Instead, they could push the narrative that Gikkle was evil the whole time and then we'd be going down the rabbit hole. Keep in mind, I last minute voted you and Oberon was ABOUT to.

[NotPaopan]

I'm not convinced. I'm 100% sure the bandits are on my train.

[Frinckles]

I think auwt is scum with PQR only if they skipped the kill. Because yes, even if PQR is actually scum, they might've skipped a kill and i happened to block scumPQR by luck...

I am starting to think they skipping the quite is quite likely, actually. Less likely than PQR getting c*ckblocked but i'd put it more likely than scum targetting BG

The only way no-killing makes sense is if either Mike and or Light_Yagami are scum as well. Every single night that we get checks, the game gets closer to a solve. I did mention a theory about how Auwt+Mike+Light+Oliver scumteam could 'clear' themselves on N1, but I mean... come on.

[PQRnHack]

You think scum attacking the ONE role they KNOW will get healed is the MOST LIKELY ? You've gotta be kidding ?

Who could we associate with PQR ? Oh no idea, if only he had bussed some people day 1 !

Terrible conclusion. That's what's called WIFOM. If you legit think that "the ONE role they KNOW will get healed" then by this logic, the town~Doctor should target someone else that is a more likely mafia target. And WIFOM time, Mafia can now take out BG.

[NotPaopan]

The only way no-killing makes sense is if either Mike and or Light_Yagami are scum as well. Every single night that we get checks, the game gets closer to a solve. I did mention a theory about how Auwt+Mike+Light+Oliver scumteam could 'clear' themselves on N1, but I mean... come on.

I'm pretty sure Lag won't agree that all TIs are bandits. The would rollstomp the game if that's true. That's why he had 3 scenarios and chose the most balanced setup. I remember reading something like that. So yeah, again... Not convinced.

[NotPaopan]

I'm pushing Gikkle. Gives more info to town.

Let Vigi decides PQ fate.

[Frinckles]

I'm not convinced. I'm 100% sure the bandits are on my train.

You don't think bandits could be on the opposite train? Why did Oberon vote for Gikkle and then jail you? You understand he was pivoting to flip and vote for you anyway right? I put you at L-1, his vote would have hammered you for majority.

Did you forget this?

I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m tempted to follow light on the paopan train just because him
and oliver think he is Mafia

Do you think it's plausible that, if you're town:

-They wanted to remove you and your votes from the game.
or
-Be seen at the good side of things by letting you live.

[Frinckles]

I'm pretty sure Lag won't agree that all TIs are bandits. The would rollstomp the game if that's true. That's why he had 3 scenarios and chose the most balanced setup. I remember reading something like that. So yeah, again... Not convinced.

Sure, but even that case just needs one of Mike/Light to be scum investigative. Auwt conveniently knew who Mike checked, didn't he?

[Loldebite]

Terrible conclusion. That's what's called WIFOM. If you legit think that "the ONE role they KNOW will get healed" then by this logic, the town~Doctor should target someone else that is a more likely mafia target. And WIFOM time, Mafia can now take out BG.

Meh. IMO the risk is really not worth it for doc to heal anyone else, but i guess it is only my opinion.

[Auwt]

True. If PQR+Auwt really are on a team together that's scary on it's own but it does make some sense. I understand you appreciate them because they voted with you on Gikkle but consider alternatives to the Thunderdome you've been indulging in.

I would've carried out the kill because I don't like trolling, you know.

[Frinckles]

I would've carried out the kill because I don't like trolling, you know.

What does that even mean?

[Auwt]

We lynch Gikkle and jmw shoot PQ tonight.
This way everyone is happy.
If PQ survives, that means either :

1) MM healed him, in which case suspicious.
2) Loldebite roleblocked jmw, in which case suspicious.
3) jmw can't kill his scum buddy.

[NotPaopan]

I would've carried out the kill because I don't like trolling, you know.

Agree lmao this is the most confusing part. Vet is the perfect KP. Why would they give it to PQ. Answer this @Frinckles

[PQRnHack]

True. If PQR+Auwt really are on a team together that's scary on it's own but it does make some sense. I understand you appreciate them because they voted with you on Gikkle but consider alternatives to the Thunderdome you've been indulging in.



A: Extremely unlikely.
B: Unlikely.
C: I'm Loldebite will be lynched or Oberon will jail+kill him if you flip town.
D: Luona is locked into a protection chain with me and MM. If at any point MM is dead, she dies. Thanks quoting me verbatim D1 about scum plausible deniability from a BD. Yet, you ignored my requests D1 to lynch Luona in favor of keeping it around, didn't you?

Nope. From my side, A is likely about 70%, B is ~20% or higher and is not mutually exclusive of C (or even D) because they get plausible deniability. I had my D1 scum read and stuck to it, but I had not thought through all of the mechanical scenarios that might unfold later on. It did not occur to me to consider lynching based on potential mechanics and "what if" scenarios, I went with my read of the player (Gikkle) instead. And I would do it again, as mechanics-based D1 lynch is a bit too rich for me.

From other town seats, A is probably about 40%, B (and others) 15% or higher, PQR as mafia killing 35%. And depending on whom you ask, that 35% might go up to 60-70%% depending on where your mind is at, in combination with reads.

[Loldebite]

Agree lmao this is the most confusing part. Vet is the perfect KP. Why would they give it to PQ. Answer this @Frinckles

He answered that to me, they would have had to hold the kill and thus Mike would have to be scum

[NotPaopan]

He answered that to me, they would have had to hold the kill and thus Mike would have to be scum

Huh?

[Auwt]

So PQR, I don't see your vote on Gikkle are you okay?
Do you need to be hit by a bullet to recover what you did D1 (pushing Gikkle) ?

[Auwt]

Agree lmao this is the most confusing part. Vet is the perfect KP. Why would they give it to PQ. Answer this @Frinckles

Well PQR's role is also a decent choice of KP, as what kind of escort would roleblock the card party maker.
Sorry loldebite...

[Frinckles]

Even if veteran is a marginally better selection for a killer, Auwt+PQR don't nessecarily have to be teamed although I think it's likely.

Not only that but I've outlined how selecting PQR's role to do it makes perfect sense. And both are visible to Lookouts.

[NotPaopan]

Now can you agree that lyncing Gikkle and "maybe" shooting PQ is one way to go??

Incriminiating PQ today would give us 0 info. You said Auwt is associated with PQ if flipped bandit. But PQ having KP doesnt make any sense at all if Auwt can initiate the kill. Basic mechanicz

[Frinckles]

Auwt makes a good observation regardless of whether it's honest or a bus. PQR is locked up, not voting, trying to explain away common sense and we still don't know what his grand strategy for his night chat was.

[PQRnHack]

Agree lmao this is the most confusing part. Vet is the perfect KP. Why would they give it to PQ. Answer this @Frinckles

I am town, and no such thing happened. I wasnt even online much of Thurs and Fri cuz you know - real life. Free today, but will be bottling home-made 7.5 litres of wine with my parents tomorrow!

[NotPaopan]

Even if veteran is a marginally better selection for a killer, Auwt+PQR don't nessecarily have to be teamed although I think it's likely.

Not only that but I've outlined how selecting PQR's role to do it makes perfect sense. And both are visible to Lookouts.

Then you agree that lynching PQ gives us 0 info then?? I asked you earlier.. what good is it for us in the long run. Nothing. Back to zero as night 2 started.

[Frinckles]

Now can you agree that lyncing Gikkle and "maybe" shooting PQ is one way to go??

Incriminiating PQ today would give us 0 info. You said Auwt is associated with PQ if flipped bandit. But PQ having KP doesnt make any sense at all if Auwt can initiate the kill. Basic mechanicz

You still haven't said why I should be voting Gikkle, start with that if you want to convince me.

[Loldebite]

Nope. From my side, A is likely about 70%, B is ~20% or higher and is not mutually exclusive of C (or even D) because they get plausible deniability. I had my D1 scum read and stuck to it, but I had not thought through all of the mechanical scenarios that might unfold later on. It did not occur to me to consider lynching based on potential mechanics and "what if" scenarios, I went with my read of the player (Gikkle) instead. And I would do it again, as mechanics-based D1 lynch is a bit too rich for me.

From other town seats, A is probably about 40%, B (and others) 15% or higher, PQR as mafia killing 35%. And depending on whom you ask, that 35% might go up to 60-70%% depending on where your mind is at, in combination with reads.

From my POV A is <10%. As scum i dont think i'd target MM once in 10 games.
Also, what were your reads on gikkle/jmw ? Why did you push them to the point of refusing to vote anyone else, if you've explained it somewhere i missed it, sorry., if you did not, i'd like finally to hear it.

[Frinckles]

Then you agree that lynching PQ gives us 0 info then?? I asked you earlier.. what good is it for us in the long run. Nothing. Back to zero as night 2 started.

You said all scum was on your train, who are they? Gikkle and who else?

[NotPaopan]

I am town, and no such thing happened. I wasnt even online much of Thurs and Fri cuz you know - real life. Free today, but will be bottling home-made 7.5 litres of wine with my parents tomorrow!

I was asking Frinckles imaginary world filled with Auwt+PQ scum. If he chose not to single out PQ. Then lynching him is not the best course of option for today. At least with Gikkle. Everyone is almost involved.

[NotPaopan]

You said all scum was on your train, who are they? Gikkle and who else?

Look at my field report.. smh

[Loldebite]

Huh?

They would not give the KP to auwt only if they do not kill. They would not kill only if they dont fear Sheriff, aka if Mike is scum too.

[NotPaopan]

I was asking Frinckles imaginary world filled with Auwt+PQ scum. If he chose not to single out PQ. Then lynching him is not the best course of option for today. At least with Gikkle. Everyone is almost involved.

Cant edit. No not.

[NotPaopan]

They would not give the KP to auwt only if they do not kill. They would not kill only if they dont fear Sheriff, aka if Mike is scum too.

I still dont understand. Auwt will always handle the KP if he's a scum. 100% no questions asked.

So you are suggesting a Auwt PQ Mike??

[PQRnHack]

So PQR, I don't see your vote on Gikkle are you okay?
Do you need to be hit by a bullet to recover what you did D1 (pushing Gikkle) ?

I am sober I'd like to use that time to use my head, thank you very much.

[Frinckles]

Cant edit. No not.

Okay but what makes Gikkle scummy to you? This is the equivalent of saying "he might be town but it's an info lynch on day 2" is not convincing.

Not to mention your fourth scum pick includes the vigilante you intend to rely on.

[jmw]

Again, I asked what the terms meant in relation to Mike. I wanted further explanation.

You're basically just claiming scum with this simple minded read at this point. I gave you 2 chances, one to explain your original read and another with this latest post. Both your responses have been unreasonably aggressive. Should I use a three strike system and give you another chance? Based on the wording of your post I find it unlikely you're going to be willing to back down. But if you still argue that I'm scum for applying a little bit of pressure on you, then I'll have to take that as a scum claim just based on how unreasonable that claim is.

This is scum Gikkle for anyone who wasn't acquainted. I'm not pushing him because I think he's scumreading me, I'm pushing him because the way he painted my read is exactly how he plays as scum and these responses are too.