S-FM 350: Chaotic Executioner

[MartinGG99]

I'm back, but I won't be here for long as I have other stuff to attend to. I won't be able to catch up till I wake tomorrow, beginning somewhere between 7 and 8 hours before EoD.

I wanted to note I completely forgot about the non-voters thing, and presumed pure basic plurality when I voted.

-unvote

This vote will be determined when I get back, between Stellaria or Gikkle assuming Renegade doesn't shoot someone today.

[Frinckles]

A Scum!Frinckles is still totally a possibility and I could see him making this play.

( ͡°( ͡° ͜ʖ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)ʖ ͡°) ͡°)

Yes me and my crew of cantankerous carolers are coming to take over this game.

I cannot be caroler! For see, how Gikkle proclaims; so many suicidal roles to choose from!

Behold with your own eyes.

S!gunsmith, S!mayor, and S!vengeful all encourage this "suicidal" play. Maybe even S!blackmailer.

He sayith. Then it must be so. Gikkle the soothsayer. Gikkle the indomitable. Gikkle the liar.

For those are his words, Yet he sayith nothing of a caroler, for which I am.

So how is a caroler to speak if no such caroler exists? How can I exist? If the truth bearing liar that is Gikkle hath so divined me a liar of the suicidal persuasion, my teammate must be the true villainous caroler, for which my knowledge would dictate my every move.

But even betwixt this problem, another lay. Scum would never carol a townie. It would be sacrilege to do so and ultimately the cause of our undoing. Surely, they would simply lie in wait. Yet, here we are.

In the same breath, he speaks of me as villainous gunsmith and undoes his own thoughts in the process. How can I be and unbe at the same time?

[Frinckles]

SO shall it be. I am the night caroler the villainous gunsmith who giveth the stone to he who Reneges.

Do you not see his lies? If that stone be placed upon me, bear witness to the truth.

[Frinckles]

that was stupid and confusing. im just caroler but was trying to make a point

[Frinckles]

I am struggling to understand how a gunsmith role encourages suicidal play though, but whatever

[Frinckles]

Anyone there?

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don’t understand the mech arguments but there’s still one pr that’s unclaimed, explain how that can’t affect anything.

Also, it can’t just be me who isn’t getting this. Also both you and Lol were voting Gikkles at EoD and Lol now has a very different take than you do

If you’re right, then you need to explain it better.

[yoshida]

A Scum!Frinckles is still totally a possibility and I could see him making this play.

shoot him then. he might very well be mafia caroler. frinckles/gikkle is W/W or W/V here. frinckles thinking he will be spewed town after a gikkle elim is also bad.

[Renegade]

shoot him then. he might very well be mafia caroler. frinckles/gikkle is W/W or W/V here. frinckles thinking he will be spewed town after a gikkle elim is also bad.

Can you clarify what w/w and w/v mean?

[yoshida]

-vote Gikkle

I can see the scum!Gikkle lying about a carol. A mafia witch/bd would never target a town Gikkle for a carol unless Frinckles himself is the witch OR a town witch/bd would have claimed already.

I also think Frinckles is mafia here and indeed a Caroler. This kind of theatre and bussing is in Frinckles range and it would be best if we flip them at this point. It would actually give a lot of information about other players and the game will be open for discussions instead of the choking atmosphere.

[yoshida]

Can you clarify what w/w and w/v mean?

wolf/wolf wolf/villager

I think there is a chance both could be mafia here

[yoshida]

like we literally cannot solve the game when the day will skip because the number of non voters are too large and the rest players won't comment more than 1 measly sentence at a time and post like 4 or 5 in 48 freaking hours.

This is why you let them die. You will always have those low posters and it is best you ignore their existence. They add very little to wagonomics be it dead or alive.

No need to get frustrated about this, trust me.

[yoshida]

-vote Gikkle

I can see the scum!Gikkle lying about a carol. A mafia witch/bd would never target a town Gikkle for a carol unless Frinckles himself is the witch OR a town witch/bd would have claimed already.

I also think Frinckles is mafia here and indeed a Caroler. This kind of theatre and bussing is in Frinckles range and it would be best if we flip them at this point. It would actually give a lot of information about other players and the game will be open for discussions instead of the choking atmosphere.

For clarity; what I mean is there might be a town caroler out there hiding. If Frinckles doesn't flip as caroler then we can actually consider the carol Gikkle had? Very low chance but possible

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think you are the most actively invested in an Italiano kill. That doesn't mean that you are the only one that would kill them, I just think you benefit the most, because obviously there's history between you two, and you are the only one who really hard TRed Italiano (and a mafia member that hard TRs someone is more likely to think that person is less mis-votable. At the very least, it'd be the hardest for you as an individual to push them.)

I know this post is bs because I just found a Stellaria post that also hard tr Italiano and there’s probably more people who did. Considering that Gikkles hard tr me on d2, that 180 really didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

[yoshida]

I don't see any other way. Shoot Frinckles > Vote Gikkle

If the gun fails, we let people decide between the two.

[yoshida]

Stellaria
Gikkle - Mafia Goon
Loldebite
BusterCannon
ItalianoVD - Vanilla Town
Nancy Drew 39
Frinckles - Caroler(Gifted)
8. Auwt - Illusionist(Chosen) and Tailor(Gifted) Jester
MartinGG99
yoshida - Vanilla Town
ikarusdk
Renegade
JeremiahSablan


if this is the case then we start the game with 5 town - 2 mafia - 1 neutral tomorrow.

Looks bad but it is a good progress. D2 Jester into D3 guaranteed mafia elimination? I will take that. Town is already weak in this setup and player balance could be scum favored.


Bonus points if both flip mafia.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think two people I wanna eyeball for that EoD are Frinckles and Nancy

@Gikkle s did you ever explain this?

[yoshida]

Now I am thinking if it is better to only vote Gikkle and not shoot at all today to sway the CE to our side? Could be two town dying in the process with no mafia deaths. I don't like the reasoning coming from both Frinckles and Gikkle here about voting>shooting.

If Gunsmith is real, they are the perfect balance to this game and town will have a chance.


Tsk tsk... shame on whoever is town and voted for Caroler. Oracle was the best pick for town.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think if Yoshida and Loldebite were scum they'd kill different people?
An Italiano kill makes more sense coming from a scum team that wants the drama with me/lolde/ikarus/yoshida to keep going the direction it's going
which probably implies we're all town

I have a tendency to be sus about people who push me for ludicrous reasons but I absolutely hated this post.

For someone hard tr me d2 to throwing this shade and completely ignoring the reasons they tr me, is kind of bizarro.

I’m going to also case Frinkles too. I haven’t made my mind up yet on who to vote for.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I have explained this several times. Frinckles does not have a red check on me. There is a very real possibility we are T/T. The dismissal of this possibility is wolf inspired, I think.

Stellaria is the vote for today.

Idk if scum theatre really makes sense here. Gikkle seems quite upset at Frinkles, so if they’re w/w, then it doesn’t look coordinated.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I think if Gikkle is scum here, it makes more sense with Lol since Lol voted him when it’s a Gikkle wagon was extremely unlikely and was trying to get a lim today on Frinkles.

Not saying Lol is necessarily scum but I unless Gikkle is brilliant at scum theatre, it doesn’t look like he and Frinkles are aligned but if anyone of those 3 is CE, then that’s of course not relevant.

But I don’t think CE can self-target and no CC, so Frinkles cannot be CE.

[Gikkle]

( ͡°( ͡° ͜ʖ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)ʖ ͡°) ͡°)

Yes me and my crew of cantankerous carolers are coming to take over this game.

I cannot be caroler! For see, how Gikkle proclaims; so many suicidal roles to choose from!

Behold with your own eyes.



He sayith. Then it must be so. Gikkle the soothsayer. Gikkle the indomitable. Gikkle the liar.

For those are his words, Yet he sayith nothing of a caroler, for which I am.

So how is a caroler to speak if no such caroler exists? How can I exist? If the truth bearing liar that is Gikkle hath so divined me a liar of the suicidal persuasion, my teammate must be the true villainous caroler, for which my knowledge would dictate my every move.

But even betwixt this problem, another lay. Scum would never carol a townie. It would be sacrilege to do so and ultimately the cause of our undoing. Surely, they would simply lie in wait. Yet, here we are.

In the same breath, he speaks of me as villainous gunsmith and undoes his own thoughts in the process. How can I be and unbe at the same time?

You carol a townie to create this exact situation. Literally one of your first posts of this game talked about counter claiming as caroler, which shows you were thinking about it.

[Gikkle]

I am struggling to understand how a gunsmith role encourages suicidal play though, but whatever

If gunsmith is on your team, you have +2 KP. That means today is MYLO. That means it's not "suicidal", you are simply making a game winning play.

[Gikkle]

wolf/wolf wolf/villager

I think there is a chance both could be mafia here

how could you possibly think we're both wolves lol

[Gikkle]

I know this post is bs because I just found a Stellaria post that also hard tr Italiano and there’s probably more people who did. Considering that Gikkles hard tr me on d2, that 180 really didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

Why are you still on this
I already dropped the point
But I'll humor you.

1. Stellaria did not say a TR on Italiano of equivalent strength as "the person I have meta on (Italiano) is playing the scum game of their life if they are town). You had the strongest TR on Italiano in the thread.
2. My "180" came after seeing a kill that didn't make sense to me that seemed to benefit one person more than others (although I've now found that Italiano actually suspected frinckles so that's probably the reason he got got). Also, I did not "hard TR" you, I lightly TRed you.

[Renegade]

Stellaria
Gikkle - Mafia Goon
Loldebite
BusterCannon
ItalianoVD - Vanilla Town
Nancy Drew 39
Frinckles - Caroler(Gifted)
8. Auwt - Illusionist(Chosen) and Tailor(Gifted) Jester
MartinGG99
yoshida - Vanilla Town
ikarusdk
Renegade
JeremiahSablan


if this is the case then we start the game with 5 town - 2 mafia - 1 neutral tomorrow.

Looks bad but it is a good progress. D2 Jester into D3 guaranteed mafia elimination? I will take that. Town is already weak in this setup and player balance could be scum favored.


Bonus points if both flip mafia.

In what world would they both flip mafia?

[Gikkle]

@Gikkle s did you ever explain this?

Didn't like Frinckles' votes that EoD. Out of everyone that voted that EoD, his seemed the most like he didn't really care what the result of it was.
My problem with your EoD was simply that you never really talked about Yoshida and Auwt iirc so it just seemed odd to me that you had any kind of preference at all at the time. I mean, it was a small objection, I don't really think much of it anymore.

[Gikkle]

I have a tendency to be sus about people who push me for ludicrous reasons but I absolutely hated this post.

For someone hard tr me d2 to throwing this shade and completely ignoring the reasons they tr me, is kind of bizarro.

I’m going to also case Frinkles too. I haven’t made my mind up yet on who to vote for.

I don't know where you got that I "hard tr"ed you.

And this post is literally just my genuine thoughts at the time? I don't understand your objection with it. My logic was that Yoshida and Loldebite, as prime suspects at the end of day 1, can't really afford to keep the status quo.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Why are you still on this
I already dropped the point
But I'll humor you.

1. Stellaria did not say a TR on Italiano of equivalent strength as "the person I have meta on (Italiano) is playing the scum game of their life if they are town). You had the strongest TR on Italiano in the thread.
2. My "180" came after seeing a kill that didn't make sense to me that seemed to benefit one person more than others (although I've now found that Italiano actually suspected frinckles so that's probably the reason he got got). Also, I did not "hard TR" you, I lightly TRed you.

Of course I’m still on this because I’m trying to decide between you and Frinkles.

I still very much dislike those posts. I know you’ve since dropped it and if it weren’t for the thundedome, I probably wouldn’t be bringing it up. But flpov, it looked like you were trying to shade me and completely ignore your previous day of tr me. And I still don’t understand your issue with my EoD vote either.

[yoshida]

In what world would they both flip mafia?

Low possibility but it is possible. This could be coordinated behind day chat. I can see myself doing it if I were scum. I would bus/cc my team to no end in this setup being unfavorable for town. High risk high reward

[Nancy Drew 39]

I don't know where you got that I "hard tr"ed you.

And this post is literally just my genuine thoughts at the time? I don't understand your objection with it. My logic was that Yoshida and Loldebite, as prime suspects at the end of day 1, can't really afford to keep the status quo.

I don’t understand why you claim fake carol as scum but so far there’s no claimed role that debunks what Frinkles is saying. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist because there is still one unclaimed.

[yoshida]

In what world would they both flip mafia?

I mean if they are not mafia caroler then they might be trying to get a town caroler to claim.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Low possibility but it is possible. This could be coordinated behind day chat. I can see myself doing it if I were scum. I would bus/cc my team to no end in this setup being unfavorable for town. High risk high reward

Anything’s possible but it really doesn’t look like scum theatre to me based off of Gikkle’s reactions to Frinkles.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I mean if they are not mafia caroler then they might be trying to get a town caroler to claim.

Everyone who checked in hasn’t CC’d Frinkles so unless Buster CCs him, Frinkles probably is caroler.

[Nancy Drew 39]

My brain is starting to turn into a sieve, so I’ll try to figure this out tomorrow. Hopefully Buster replacement chimes in before EoD.

[yoshida]

Don't get me wrong, I am just trying to figure this out as much as some of you.

Would it be a throw if Frinckles - Mafia Caroler to carol a Town Gikkle? I feel like it isn't.

[yoshida]

-vote MartinGG99

[Gikkle]

How I like to do NKA is just methodical process of elimination of who does and doesn't benefit from a kill. This is easier with 2 or more kills, but 1 kill is still technically doable, I'm just more likely to make mistakes or come to a more vague conclusion. So excuse me when I don't solve the game after 1 kill

At least for the beginning, I'm going to ignore the current going ons for now for the sake of this relatively short NKA. I'll ignore the fact that I pretty much know that Frinckles is scum and that one of Stellaria/Loldebite/Ikarus is mafia. I'll address these things at the end, though.

Here is a list of players alive at the start of night 1:

1. Stellaria
2. Gikkle
3. Loldebite
4. BusterCannon
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles
9. MartinGG99
10. yoshida
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade
13. Clemensthelemon JeremiahSablan

When looking for potential kill targets, I think it's reasonable to take out the counter wagon and any low impact posters. Those are all "low value targets", so most mafia teams aren't going to WANT to kill them.
(so removing clemens, yoshida, buster)

1. Stellaria
2. Gikkle
3. Loldebite
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles
9. MartinGG99
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade

This is the full list of players that mafia would be primarily looking for a kill target in. They chose Italiano. The most likely reason is a combination of him being fairly TRed, being a fairly solid player, and not disturbing the status quo.

The status quo at the SoN1 was yoshida was the counterwagon, and Loldebite was having a lot of shade thrown his way by me. Renegade, Martin, Buster, Ikarus, and perhaps myself were all in the "upper PoE". Nancy, Frinckles, Stellaria, Italiano, and Clemens were more on the sidelines.
Organizing this:

-sidelines/generally not suspected
1. Stellaria
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles

-inactive
13. Clemensthelemon

-upper poe/in the thick of things
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade
2. Gikkle
4. BusterCannon
9. MartinGG99

-under lots of pressure
10. yoshida
3. Loldebite

A mafia who was thinking about their NK might reasonably come to the conclusion that Yoshida or Loldebite might get pushed more the next day. Perhaps anybody in the upper PoE as well, but it'd be seemingly less certain.

Let's establish Italiano's reads:
Town - Stellaria, Nancy, Renegade, Gikkle, loldebite, martin, Ikarus?, yoshida, Buster (initially SRed buster, but was convinced by Ikarus' post to retract that read.)
Scum - Frinckles? (implied in #539 and #540)

I'll say right now - it is incredibly unlikely that a mafia that contains someone under pressure comprised entirely of Italiano's TRs makes that kill. What that means in simple terms - Any mafia that contains at least 1 of (yoshida/lolde) and 2 of (ika/ren/buster/martin) would NOT have made that kill. It would be completely going against their interests. They keep the status quo, and lose someone who TRs all of them. They gain NOTHING from such a kill.

I think, honestly, disregarding that yoshida/loldebite had super non paired interactions day 1, any team with both of them don't kill outside of Martin/Me/Ikarus/Frinckles. Their position is too treacherous to kill Italiano.

I think if the team was like, Loldebite/Martin, I'd probably just get killed, regardless of who the third was. As I suspected both of them day 1, there's incentive enough to kill me. At the very least, they're not really incentivized to keep the status quo. Don't think this team performs the kill on Italiano.

I think a team with one of Stellaria/Frinckles/Nancy is the most interested in killing Italiano. No, Nancy, this isn't the same argument as before, and I don't even have reason to believe you're the scum of the three rn, and in fact I am inclined to believe you're town rn. A mafia team that has at least one member in a safer position is more motivated to kill someone to keep the status quo, as a team that's completely in the PoE is more inclined to try and break out of it. Does this guarantee one of them is scum? No. But probability wise, it's far more likely.

Thus, a team with one of Stellaria/Frinckles/Nancy is the most likely to have killed Italiano. Frinckles particularly, as Italiano implied distrust of Frinckles.

Also, Clemens/Buster probably not partnered because I don't think a third scum member (who would presumably be controlling the kill) would be confident enough in the mafia's thread position to kill Italiano there.

I do take back what I said about Loldebite/Yoshida not killing Italiano - it entirely depends on their team mates. If Yoshida was team mates with Frinckles, it would make perfect sense why he would kill Italiano. Same with Lolde.

There is definitely more to analyze from this kill, but I've gotten a bit rusty since I haven't done this in a hot minute and I'm getting a bit tired. Here's some associative analysis though:

Buster/Loldebite not paired based off some stuff from the start of the game where Loldebite thought Buster was hollowkatt (this is a fairly weak reason but I believe it)
Ikarus/Loldebite very unlikely to be paired based off of day 1 arguments.
Ikarus/Buster probably not teamed based off of very natural posts that Ikarus posted about Buster
Loldebite/Frinckles unlikely to be paired based on how Loldebite has been reacting to Frinckles' shenanigans.
Ikarus/Martin unlikely to be paired based on the jailor story - seemed too detailed to be fake, and I don't think mafia wastes their jailor action jailing their buddy.
Buster/Yoshida probably isn't teamed? I could see Buster bussing Ren, but he barely talked about Yoshida, so voting him at EoD like that and potentially getting him killed seems unlikely considering he probs wouldn't get any cred.


That leaves 60 teams. A lot of teams, but that's 50% of what I started with. Pretty good for one kill, I'd think.

Spoiler : 60 teams :

Stellaria,Loldebite,Nancy
Stellaria,Loldebite,Renegade
Stellaria,Loldebite,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Buster,Nancy
Stellaria,Buster,Frinckles
Stellaria,Buster,Martin
Stellaria,Buster,Renegade
Stellaria,Buster,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Nancy,Frinckles
Stellaria,Nancy,Martin
Stellaria,Nancy,Yoshida
Stellaria,Nancy,Ikarus
Stellaria,Nancy,Renegade
Stellaria,Nancy,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Frinckles,Martin
Stellaria,Frinckles,Yoshida
Stellaria,Frinckles,Ikarus
Stellaria,Frinckles,Renegade
Stellaria,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Martin,Yoshida
Stellaria,Martin,Renegade
Stellaria,Martin,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Yoshida,Ikarus
Stellaria,Yoshida,Renegade
Stellaria,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Ikarus,Renegade
Stellaria,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Renegade,Jeremiah
Loldebite,Nancy,Renegade
Loldebite,Nancy,Jeremiah
Buster,Nancy,Frinckles
Buster,Nancy,Martin
Buster,Nancy,Renegade
Buster,Nancy,Jeremiah
Buster,Frinckles,Martin
Buster,Frinckles,Renegade
Buster,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Nancy,Frinckles,Martin
Nancy,Frinckles,Yoshida
Nancy,Frinckles,Ikarus
Nancy,Frinckles,Renegade
Nancy,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Nancy,Martin,Yoshida
Nancy,Martin,Renegade
Nancy,Martin,Jeremiah
Nancy,Yoshida,Ikarus
Nancy,Yoshida,Renegade
Nancy,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Nancy,Ikarus,Renegade
Nancy,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Nancy,Renegade,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Martin,Yoshida
Frinckles,Martin,Renegade
Frinckles,Martin,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Yoshida,Ikarus
Frinckles,Yoshida,Renegade
Frinckles,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Ikarus,Renegade
Frinckles,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Renegade,Jeremiah

But, accounting for the fact Frinckles is a wolf and there has to be a wolf between Lolde/Ikarus/Stellaria, there's really only 11 possible teams.

Frinckles, Stellaria, Buster
Frinckles, Stellaria, Nancy
Frinckles, Stellaria, Martin
Frinckles, Stellaria, Yoshida
Frinckles, Stellaria, Ikarus
Frinckles, Stellaria, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Nancy, Ikarus
Frinckles, Yoshida, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Renegade
Frinckles, Ikarus, Jeremiah

In order of the ones I believe from most to least,

-believable-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Martin
Frinckles, Stellaria, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Stellaria, Yoshida

-Skeptical, but still somewhat believable-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Nancy

-sad if true, but could still be convinced-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Nancy, Ikarus
Frinckles, Yoshida, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Buster


If you have reason to disagree with any of my logic, feel free to respond with your criticisms - I much prefer to be corrected when I make a bad logical argument, and it's likely I made at least one since I made this when I was tired.

I'm either going to log off for the night or read Stellaria's posts since I've been working on this and haven't had the chance to fulfill my promise. Depends on how tired I get.

[yoshida]

My brain is starting to turn into a sieve, so I’ll try to figure this out tomorrow. Hopefully Buster replacement chimes in before EoD.

Oh I completely missed the 24 hour extension post. thanks!

Who do you think Renegade should shoot here if you agree that Frinckles and Gikkle are never CE or Bomber here and Town Gunsmith/Town Ren team exists. I think it can help him decide. We will need more time if vig kill happens.

[yoshida]

@Nancy Drew 39

[Gikkle]

Of course I’m still on this because I’m trying to decide between you and Frinkles.

I still very much dislike those posts. I know you’ve since dropped it and if it weren’t for the thundedome, I probably wouldn’t be bringing it up. But flpov, it looked like you were trying to shade me and completely ignore your previous day of tr me. And I still don’t understand your issue with my EoD vote either.

Shade implies that I subtly try and make you look bad without directly engaging you. I straight up accused you of murdering that poor man lol
I explained my problem with your eod vote in one of my next posts btw

[Gikkle]

For clarity; what I mean is there might be a town caroler out there hiding. If Frinckles doesn't flip as caroler then we can actually consider the carol Gikkle had? Very low chance but possible

If there is a town caroler that didn't CC by this point that would be literal insanity and I'd probably rip my hair out

[Gikkle]

I don’t understand why you claim fake carol as scum but so far there’s no claimed role that debunks what Frinkles is saying. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist because there is still one unclaimed.

Is it that hard to believe that Frinckles or the mafia in general just has some role that benefits from this play? Vengeful, Gunsmith, Mayor, Blackmailer - all of these can bring town to MYLO a lot sooner.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Oh I completely missed the 24 hour extension post. thanks!

Who do you think Renegade should shoot here if you agree that Frinckles and Gikkle are never CE or Bomber here and Town Gunsmith/Town Ren team exists. I think it can help him decide. We will need more time if vig kill happens.

I don’t think Stellaria is likely CE based on their fake pr posting idea on d2, unless you’re going to argue it was done for show because I don’t see why CE does this. Ikarus claimed jailor so unlikely it’s him. Unless someone CCs cariloer is unlikely Frinkles, so my best guess for CE is anyone other than Ren, Ikarus, Stellaria and Frinkles. So who does that leave?

Not sure rn but I don’t think any of those players are likely CE.

@Ginkkle what is your reasoning for thinking Frinkles is scum because doesn’t he die the next day if you are town?

I’m trying to understand his motive for possibly lying here.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Is it that hard to believe that Frinckles or the mafia in general just has some role that benefits from this play? Vengeful, Gunsmith, Mayor, Blackmailer - all of these can bring town to MYLO a lot sooner.

Yeah, I do need it explained to me. Can you do that?

[Nancy Drew 39]

I’m not a strong mech player so my understanding of a lot of things about this game could be a lot better.

[Gikkle]

I actually think there's a good chance mafia can just win if they manage to convince y'all to lynch me
I think it's the only way all of the facts make sense. If mafia only has one or two PRs (frinckles), CE is encouraged to work with mafia (with maybe one sacrificed mafia to get them to help if mafia has 2 prs). Thus, mafia has 4 votes rn.

If, then, it's 7v4, mafia only needs one mislynch, and they are at 5v4. If mafia managed to get a gun (renegade), it's 4v4, and assuming mafia NKed a PR and Renegade shot one (bc CE would just out the PRs at this point so Ren can shoot), then the CE would only need one PR killed to win. This is easily achievable. A 4v4 tie goes to night, and mafia kills the last town PR. Thus, it is GG.

Well you might be wondering how that works if y'all just force Ren to shoot me. Or if the gunsmith is actually a fabricator. I don't exactly have good explanations for these. Maybe the gunsmith is mafia and Ren isn't attached to his gun specifically. Or maybe he just conveniently forgets to get online on time. Both are possible. The former explanation would actually answer all of these questions, actually. He knows the gun is real, and he knows he is able to shoot one without worrying about losing mafia's only gun.

There's a couple other explanations which allow for T!Renegade and a T!Gunsmith. Like a mafia mayor. Or a mafia vengeful. In either case, mafia isn't concerned about being voted out.

The more I think about this, the more I'm just like... why are you guys so convinced frinckles wouldn't make this play as scum lol. S!gunsmith, S!mayor, and S!vengeful all encourage this "suicidal" play. Maybe even S!blackmailer.

Okay. I'm done with rambling about potential MyLO. I'll do some actual analysis in a couple hours.

Read this post nancy, i explain it here ^^

[Gikkle]

Read this post nancy, i explain it here ^^

Basically, it's likely 7v4 rn depending on how many PRs mafia has. They only need one mislynch and one extra kill to make it a winning 4v4.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Read this post nancy, i explain it here ^^

Okay I see. I wasn’t taking into account CE and mafia working together. So your argument then is you get miselimmed and scum!Frinkles take a fall for the team.

You do feel very genuine to me here.

[powerofdeath]

Varcron officially replaced BusterCannon, not sure where the 4 people on the reserve list went.