Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron
idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling
Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron
idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling
That's correct today, you are unlynchable even though you are in the potential pairings OR unless you mess up someone really, really badly. The lynch pool today is Auwt/PQ/MeOriginally Posted by Frinckles
If you mean by authentic in your pushes I'd say that PQ is likely the less, but you decide as you will. The game is in essence in yours/cekos hands for the town.
We can't know that because he was never there for the last ~30% of D1
>_<
@Frinckles who is ur top scum-team
What's vca? Vote count something?
So from where I sit, I don't see Frinckles+Lag as a likely pairing based on:
-interactions and voting each other
-Oberon (Frinckles slot) left his vote on Lag as the day progressed and Lag received a 2nd vote (L-1). Oberon kept the vote there, leaving in L-1 on Lag for a while, until Blink eventually accumulated votes and got hammered.
For this reason, I plan to vote Varcron and Auwt, in any order. You pick. I know you said you don't want to lynch replacement slot, but from my POV that is clearly the safest lynch today. But to be fair, D3 starts right after anyway, so we have to make the call on Frinckles vs Varcron shortly, unless we want to buy more time to make that decision. But Auwt+Varcron looks pretty solid as the scum team here.
Minor correction
What's vca? Vote count something?
So from where I sit, I don't see Frinckles+Auwt as a likely pairing based on:
-interactions and voting each other
-Oberon (Frinckles slot) left his vote on Lag as the day progressed and Lag received a 2nd vote (L-1). Oberon kept the vote there, leaving in L-1 on Lag for a while, until Blink eventually accumulated votes and got hammered.
For this reason, I plan to vote Varcron and Auwt, in any order. You pick. I know you said you don't want to lynch replacement slot, but from my POV that is clearly the safest lynch today. But to be fair, D3 starts right after anyway, so we have to make the call on Frinckles vs Varcron shortly, unless we want to buy more time to make that decision. But Auwt+Varcron looks pretty solid as the scum team here.
Not contradicting, I was posing it as a question and expressing doubt. But after further convincing myself that Auwt+Frinckles cannot be a team, it leaves Auwt+Varcron. I know that if it's not Auwt+Varcron, then that leaves Auwt+Frinckles. So Auwt is the safe lynch.
Obviously my post there has two sus events that occurred in the game: either Auwt+Varcron are both scum and placed 2nd and 3rd votes onto Blink or Auwt+Frinckles are team and Oberon/Frinckles was satisfied leaving their vote on Lag/Auwt at L-1. Which event is more likely? I think scum Lag/Auwt+Varcron saving Lag/Auwt (at N-1 and with PQR possibly getting online) is more likely.
@theoneceko from your POV, you must decide which of these two teams is town and which one is mafia.
Auwt+Varcron
Frinckles+PQR
I'm afraid this will be challenging, because I never suspected Oberon D1 and now from checking logs in the past 2 hours, believe Oberon/Frinckles is town. I checked Oberon's and my D1 ISOs, and there was never any hostility in our minimal interactions; if anything, we might look like mafia team (I was first to highlight Oberon's absence with my fake/misspelled vote on him). I suppose you could ask yourself, how would each of the pairings above play as mafia.
well the vca simply confirms the teams I listed previously. We have 1 town voting a mafia and 1 mafia voting a town. Ceko is the deciding vote, so there is not much point for 2nd mafia (Auwt) or for me to vote. No pressure, ceko.
Correct. I doubt that scum!Frinckles would vote scum!Varcron here, but if that's how hard they bus then they deserve the win. and D1 Oberon/Lag (Frinckles/Auwt now) interaction and voting each other (and O leaving the L-1 on Lag) tells me they are unlikely to be a team here; and if they were, then Varcron doesnt even offer that possibility and instead suggests mafia Frinckles+PQR team. So Varcron's play here is clearly aimed at fooling the Sheriff (out of the 3 townies) and not either of the other 2 townies (he put me in his scumread list/pairings everywhere, so he's given up on trying to get a misvote from myself onto Frinckles).
man, i rly don't get why pqrnhack tunneled me so hard on day 1. his only vote from day 1 was on me. i couldn't believe a scum!pqr would try to lynch sheriff!ceko, because it is LITERALLY impossible to lynch me when i am town, so i wrote him off as a dumb townie.
however, @blinkskater 's quote here:
makes me believe pqr's plan was to throw shade on my slot and blink's slot. pqr may not have thought he could actually lynch me, but if i was in a lynchable position, he would certainly have pounced on it. pqr yelled "LYNCH BLINK" when blink said he was leaving for a bit. then, when oberon and i were in a thunderdome and arguing about lag, pqr dropped this:
which made me give pqr townpoints and give oberon even more scumpoints.
i re-read iso's for lag and auwt. they look townie hewwo !!!
varcron's tunnel on oberinckles is objectively bad, UWOWU HEWWO!!!
i love how i'm overconfident and was wrong like 80% of the time in this game, but town will still win in the end UWU bc lag/bink who are both town mentioned a varc + pqr team, uwu hewwo, uwu hewwo ???
UWOWU HEWWO???
i want to celebrate by petting some cute kitties and puppies
UWU, UWOWU HEWWO!!!
At that time, I hadn't realized that blink rescinded his Sheriff claim so i viewed it as conflict/thunderdome between you two, and when you suggested that 2 false sheriff claims could be 2 mafia (absurd), that resolved the thunderdome for me and I put my vote on you. I mean you knew that it was a thunderdome yourself:
I also didnt like the votes on Blink leading to him becoming L-1 and thought evils were trying to hammer him, and I viewed that as a mislynch after I read you as scum in the thunderdome based on that 2 mafia sheriff claims comment.
Then later folks clarified that blink was no longer claiming sheriff, so I unvoted 13 minutes after putting my vote on you and gave it more time to re-assess the situation.
That's called a joke
Yes, he did put a vote on me and also numerous times mentioned he viewed me as scum (his top townread of D1, just because I was busy working today, turned into scum for reasons like lurker, been quiet, buddying with Frinckles, pushing Auwt/Lag's slot).
It took me a while and doing some reading of what I missed while I was gone to reach the conclusion that he is trying to fool you (Ceko/Sheriff) and not me(I suppose that was my newb selfish thinking initially: wondering why Varcron, if scum, would scumpaint me and not one of the others - Frinckles or Auwt - to trick me).
Uhhh from my POV that would make Frinckles + Varcron the team, which is doubtful given their battles and vote going on. But I suppose the only POV that matters now is yours and not mine, but I suppose I can offer my POV for your benefit so you make the right call.
If you are town in my slot, who would you interpret to be the 2 mafia here? I choose to trust that scum!Frinckles wouldnt vote scum!Varcron, therefore Auwt must be a mafioso. And then who is more likely to be Auwt's partner? Oberon and Lag interaction D1 tells me they are not a team, especially with Oberon leaving his L-1 votes on Lag.
In all fairness, 'can't' isn't the right word but I'm not really doing any favors pointing that out.
(๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶
Yes, because I am LAZY. Why do I need to care about walls of text when you suggested the crazy idea that two sheriff claims could be the 2 mafia. But I did read, what was there to respond to? "now jump in my pocket like you did last game and vote blink." asking me to vote Blink was not exactly trustworthy.
And the thing about me quoting a subset of your post, I don't understand your point. I quoted the highlighted.
What was so bad about me omitting the other lines? If you're referring to the CC part, why should I include that when I don't trust your CC and therefore it's irrelevant to me? It's not like I was going to accept you for a sheriff after you suggested both blink and I could be the 2 mafias.
My lazy ass is getting tired of us 2 townies having arguments on D2 when the only thing I can do is try to convince you that I'm not mafia and that Auwt is safest lynch from my POV. I cannot change my D1 interactions with Oberon or my "buddying" them or now Frinckles, it is unfortunate that there exists an "appearance" that we could be a team just because we didnt have much of an interaction and no suspicions of one another (obviously attention was on bigger fish D1). In fact, I think the probability from my POV is that Frinckles and I are a team: of LTCs. I believe both Frinckles and I have the correct solve here, so it's not like we're ever going to vote each other.
Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).
I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).
From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt as TownieA and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron that are MafiaA/TownieB.
TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol
uneditable edit
Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).
I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).
From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt TownieA as scum and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron for maf-partner that are MafiaA/TownieB.
TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol
varc is my strongest scumread right now.
as the un-cc'ed sheriff, i am leaving a vote-in-spirit on varcon
@Auwt
@theoneceko i am writing a long msg addressing you. Do you want me to finish and send or to be lazy and forget it?
Ozy probs screaming at me right now. I am a disgraceful lazy employee who does not give our CEO sufficient credit.
And I am confident in my solve. @theoneceko , if your POV is not Varcron or Auwt, then you need help from your teammates.
Varcron is not offering any help. I am prepared to write a long ass msg because i must do so for my win condition with Ceko and (I believe) Frinckles.
Fuck, I hate working overtime. But im basically gonna start going thru breadcrumbs to help Ceko make the right calls.
Here Auwt is bussing Varcron while calling out Frinckles and me. What a shocker, the 2 in the 2v2. What is interesting is their solve is Varcron/PQR, which i can assure you is not possible cuz im ready to hammer Varcon now. And even Darker, Varcron and Frinckles, when we have a vote from Frinckles onto Varcron?
-vote AwutIf I lose this game i will be ashamed.
-vote Auwt
I have my solve, it's Auwt and Varcron. If i am wrong, as I was with Ceko, then it is because I suck
@theoneceko it sucks because they put the decision onto the dumbest player ;) just kidding. i am extremely confident in my solve. do not throw please
OK i need to take an action to maybe help Ceko here.-vote Varcron. I am committed to my solve.
but ima vote-vote auwt