Day 2: The Mysterious Stranger

[Forum Mafia GM]

Hey folks, Roxy here!

Something terrible happened last night on my security feeds. I saw Heihachi get shot... by the hands of a mysterious stranger.

Whoever could do such a thing? Who has taken it upon themselves to dole out such Vigilante justice?

His role was... Citizen!

----

Graveyard:

Heihachi (Citizen): Killed by a Mysterious Stranger [Night 1]

[Roger]

We have a witch...

[Lando]

I really didn't expect that...

I can think of two scenarios right now:

1. There is actually a Witch and you got witched. Prime Witch suspects for me are the ones that voted you to have the gun. Vader seemed particularly concerned about the time running short - 18 hours were left.

OR (and what I find much more likely)

2. You shot that gun and fake claimed to be witched. You just came in here posted 1 minute after the thread came up and disappeared again as if it was nobody's business. Of course you did this for a reason. What would be better than a Veteran's Assault Rifle to ward away that supposed Witch? You didn't even try to initiate anything to counteract further abuse now. A role-block, or a bus driving should work miracles.

Another reason why I think that case 1 is not the situation we're currently in:
Why would the Witch do that? Revealing herself being in the Vault and killing off her Vault members makes it super easy to narrow her identity down. Witch needs to survive and see NCR lose in order to win. And that supposed action didn't help her achieve this at all.

You got to present some serious evidence to convince me of you being Town.

I'd still like to have the Veteran's Assault Rifle.

[Romo]

Give the rifle to me. This way, I will be a bomb disposal robot with defensive capabilities.

[Vader]

I can think of two scenarios right now:

1. There is actually a Witch and you got witched. Prime Witch suspects for me are the ones that voted you to have the gun. Vader seemed particularly concerned about the time running short - 18 hours were left.

Sorry, this makes no sense. Why would witch suspects fall to those who voted Roger? The witch could have just as easily gotten the gun and shot, or not voted and still controlled whomever got the gun as long as he's in the vault. Why I was concerned about the time: The rules clearly stated day and night will be 24 hours long. I calculated that to be at 6AM PST. I was not aware the day had been extended, for whatever reason, all the way until 4PM PST.

2. You shot that gun and fake claimed to be witched. You just came in here posted 1 minute after the thread came up and disappeared again as if it was nobody's business. Of course you did this for a reason. What would be better than a Veteran's Assault Rifle to ward away that supposed Witch? You didn't even try to initiate anything to counteract further abuse now. A role-block, or a bus driving should work miracles.

Another reason why I think that case 1 is not the situation we're currently in:
Why would the Witch do that? Revealing herself being in the Vault and killing off her Vault members makes it super easy to narrow her identity down. Witch needs to survive and see NCR lose in order to win. And that supposed action didn't help her achieve this at all.

This mirrors my thoughts.

However, one thing scares me.

The other shot will be fired tonight without a doubt. If Roger is scum firing the gun, and knows he's caught, he'll fire the other shot without a doubt as a last stand or whatever. If the witch controlled Roger to fire the shot, and now we know he's in here, he might as well control him to fire the other shot. I guess the only solace we have would be that we know there's scum in here, and it'll be narrowed down to 5 people.

[Romo]

All this intellectual arguments on witches, advantages of having guns etc.

Have you guys ever even been right?

Give the rifle to me, and I'll do the right thing that you all should have done the first update.

-vote Romo

[Lando]

Activity seems to have taken a drop.

All this intellectual arguments on witches, advantages of having guns etc.

Have you guys ever even been right?

Give the rifle to me, and I'll do the right thing that you all should have done the first update.

-vote Romo

What IS the right thing?
You are voting by sending a PM to the host today, btw. Secret Ballot...
And we have 2 other guys browsing the thread.

[Roger]

2. You shot that gun and fake claimed to be witched. You just came in here posted 1 minute after the thread came up and disappeared again as if it was nobody's business. Of course you did this for a reason. What would be better than a Veteran's Assault Rifle to ward away that supposed Witch? You didn't even try to initiate anything to counteract further abuse now. A role-block, or a bus driving should work miracles.

Another reason why I think that case 1 is not the situation we're currently in:
Why would the Witch do that? Revealing herself being in the Vault and killing off her Vault members makes it super easy to narrow her identity down. Witch needs to survive and see NCR lose in order to win. And that supposed action didn't help her achieve this at all.

You got to present some serious evidence to convince me of you being Town.

I'd still like to have the Veteran's Assault Rifle.

The thing which you are completely forgetting in many places in this post is that I don't know anything more than you do, and I don't have any evidence proving anything. I received a PM telling me that I was manipulated by a witch last night, and now Heihanchi is dead, even though I didn't attempt to kill anyone. The only other things which I can do is make the same speculations everyone else can if they can actually believe that I'm be telling the truth, instead of you making assumptions over bullshit like activity.

firstly, you think that since we are in a vault that the witch would avoid using any sort of night actions until D4. there are SO many things the witch has to gain from controlling the gun which you are choosing to ignore. firstly, it's a freaking gun, which can kill people! waiting until the vault opened to take control of the gun wouldn't be as good an idea as you think. the only way the witch would know I had the gun is if she were in this vault, so she'd get caught anyway. additionally, if there was a problem with the gun after we reached the surface, I could just reveal, and we could place precautions from there. by witching me down in the vault, she is guaranteed to get a free kill N1, followed by the high possibility of a free kill the second night, followed by the possibility of a future mislynch on me. That adds up to THREE kills and a wasted day caused by 2 witching’s. That’s goes quite a long way towards the "making the town fall" win condition coming true, which you also seem to have forgotten. As for revealing herself as being in this vault will lessen her chances of survival, you're under the assumption that the moment D4 comes, everyone is going to turn all attention to our vault and spend the following days/nights getting to the bottom of what’s going on. unless a detective/lookout gets lucky, with no investigators the witch is a very hard role to detect, so with neither mafia's wanting to kill a witch, the whole predicament will probably pass over for the more concrete cases brought up by the other vaults. people often don't see witches as too big a threat, and are more interested in taking out people with some solid proof pointing towards mafia then people who could be witches.

on top of that, you're completely ignoring all the reasons why me taking the gun and then shooting someone with it would be such a terrible, terrible idea. any fool could see that this situation would arise if I shot someone N1. where is the good WIFOM in scum drawing so much negative attention to himself, even if he can kill 2 people in 2 nights? an assault rifle would be useless in that situation. with 2 mafia's, loosing numbers early in the game just to cause a bit of chaos is a really bad more. me wanting the gun AND assault rifle is also something which looks pretty bad now, which I probably wouldn't have done if I were scum. think about that instead of simply jumping to the easiest conclusion.

very lastly, I would like the assault rifle very much. you and Vader seem to have some delusion that the rifle is some weapon of mass destruction which, in the hands of scum, could spell doom for all living creatures, and want to control it yourselves so that it isn't misused for the wrong purposes. however, unlike you, I have a very solid reason for wanting the assault rifle. me having the assault rifle would guarantee that no one would die tonight, as the witch obviously won't target me. even if I were scum, I wouldn't dare shoot, as that would completely confirm me as scum. me not having the rifle will cause the witch to possess me, and another person here will die.

no one here needs protection from visitors more than I do, even if some people choose to believe they are imaginary ones.

...

P.S: Watch Lando back pedal on his reasons for wanting the rifle.

[Lando]

This last post is one of the reasons why I think you shot the gun. You hope to get away by shooting two members of our Vault while snatching away the AR. Then you proceed to go on alert for two or three nights straight in hopes to get some more killed. My guess is that Fluttershy will die next as you already got checked.

The point you are missing is that the victory condition of the Witch consists of two parts. Killing three Townies is all nice and good for her, but it's all for naught if she dies. The witch is having a hard enough time living through all of this on her own. Why spoil the odds?
If you were witched night 4 there would be a strong suspicion that a member of Vault 9 is a Witch, but there won't be any definite proof. You on the other hand suggest that the Witch goes batshit crazy and reduces the population of Vault 9 to FOUR people and makes sure that everybody knows she is in those four (when you get lynched and flip Town). Maybe she won't be found through night actions, but at the end of the day (figuratively) she will be found. Let another member of the Vault die, add some provable PR claims to the mix and what do you get? A dead Witch - a Witch that lost.
And the precautions you spoke of to prevent the Witch from targeting you: Don't you think that the Gunsmith would need those, too?

And you seem to ignore what you have to gain. From a Mafia perspective, you getting to shoot two people snatching away another resource and getting away or even killing some more until you die, is totally acceptable. Because you can still friggin' win. You have so much more to gain than a Witch ever will. This is one of the high risk, high reward strategies we spoke of yesterday.
Plus you didn't put a lot of thought into what you posted for somebody that just got witched. You would think that somebody that gets witched would think of a way to escape his current predicament by reading up on the Witch. But you obviously didn't do that. Contrary to what you stated, the Witch can't be detected by Detectives and Lookouts.

Rather than back pedaling on my reasons I'll add "I don't want Roger to have it" to it. You are confirmed scum in my eyes.

If you feel that I didn't address your points correctly, feels free to reiterate them.

[Lando]

I'll be away for the rest of the day (except for maybe one little check right before the day ends), but I'm considering Vader and myself for the Veteran's Assault Rifle. Make the most of it! I'm out.

[Vader]

More news: When I checked Day 1, Heihachi's name was in red, instead of green, indicating that he was dead. Now, I'm not sure if this was intended, but my logic directed me to the Day 0 thread.

I was surprised. 6, that's right, 6 perished last night. They are as follows:
Hayley
Chewbacca
Chandler
Rachel
Eddy
Heihachi

Now, I don't know if that frightens you, but this is highly unsettling to me. I don't believe we have 6 witches. Neither Mafia nor neutral or even town may kill at night, other than using the weapons they were handed. This only leads me to believe that somehow, a majority, if not all, the vaults were handed a killing weapon of some sort. And a majority, if not all, of them fired last night.

Any hypotheses to how this disaster happened?

The only possibility that I can see is that somehow, the guns fell to one Mafia's hands, and they just said, "To heck with it, if we kill 12 townies in the vault, then town will be considerably weakened even if they assemble." And because town can't lynch anyone for three whole days... But it just sounds too improbable for all the killing weapons to fall into one Mafia's hands. And the chances of so many witches doesn't sound probable either. But I just don't know how else all this could have occurred.

On another note, where's Fluttershy and Han? Off in their night chat with Romo?

[Vader]

And another thing I don't understand is, why Heihachi? He claimed citizen. Why wasn't someone like Fluttershy killed? He claimed Sheriff. This is baffling.

[Roger]

This last post is one of the reasons why I think you shot the gun. You hope to get away by shooting two members of our Vault while snatching away the AR.
Excuse me, are we talking about the same weapon? the only thing you can do with a rifle is go on alert. since it is very unlikely that this whole situation is going to stay in the vault, the chances of a town targeting me while I'm on alert is MINIMAL since they will already know I have the rifle
Then you proceed to go on alert for two or three nights straight in hopes to get some more killed.
again, what? going on alert won't just make people magicaly die. they have to visit you first.
My guess is that Fluttershy will die next as you already got checked.
if I didn't want to get checked by Fluttershy, shouldn't I have killed her last night instead of the citizen who voted for me to have the gun? of course, WIFOM is involved, but you seem to be completely ignoring that when it comes to the witch possesion

The point you are missing is that the victory condition of the Witch consists of two parts. Killing three Townies is all nice and good for her, but it's all for naught if she dies. The witch is having a hard enough time living through all of this on her own. Why spoil the odds?
stop selecively reading my posts. I already explained that the other vaults will probably have their own problems when D4 comes. as Vader just pointed out SIX people died last night. I think that the witch can get away with revealing her location, especialy with immunity to sheriffs(and all the other scumhunting roles) and the fact no one even believes she exists.
If you were witched night 4 there would be a strong suspicion that a member of Vault 9 is a Witch, but there won't be any definite proof. You on the other hand suggest that the Witch goes batshit crazy and reduces the population of Vault 9 to FOUR people and makes sure that everybody knows she is in those four (when you get lynched and flip Town). Maybe she won't be found through night actions, but at the end of the day (figuratively) she will be found. Let another member of the Vault die, add some provable PR claims to the mix and what do you get? A dead Witch - a Witch that lost.
the witch not wanting to witch until D4 is a prime example of your scummy flip-flopping motives. your talking about how lynches need to be around "definate proof", yet I'm "confirmed scum" to you, even though getting witched is the only thing which brings that on. for the most part you stick to everything needing to have concrete evidence before being acted on, yet you completely throw that out the window when it comes to wanting to get me lynched. Other than that, all other comments you make in that post I have already given my opinions on as to why they could be good moves to the witches in my previous post. if I were witch, would I witch N1? maybe not, but it happend.
And the precautions you spoke of to prevent the Witch from targeting you: Don't you think that the Gunsmith would need those, too?
finaly something intelegent. if I don't get the rifle today which is becoming increasingly likely, and someone dies because of that, I shall vote for whoever gets the rifle to also be gunsmith. however, I am not going to be voting for you for either, due to your increasingly inconsitentcy.

And you seem to ignore what you have to gain. From a Mafia perspective, you getting to shoot two people snatching away another resource and getting away or even killing some more until you die, is totally acceptable. Because you can still friggin' win. You have so much more to gain than a Witch ever will. This is one of the high risk, high reward strategies we spoke of yesterday.
Plus you didn't put a lot of thought into what you posted for somebody that just got witched. You would think that somebody that gets witched would think of a way to escape his current predicament by reading up on the Witch. But you obviously didn't do that. Contrary to what you stated, the Witch can't be detected by Detectives and Lookouts.
no, I actualy didn't check up on the witch after being witched, but you bring up a great point in your last sentence. so, the witch is COMPLETELY immune to dettection, and once D4 comes the mafia will know that there is probably a witch in this vault, so they should avoid killing people in this vault. not being targeted by kills helps a ton on the "surviving" part of things, and it's hard to get any definate proof on someone who is immune to detection. why are you still arguing that witching N1 and 2 for free kills is a bad move at all?

Rather than back pedaling on my reasons I'll add "I don't want Roger to have it" to it. You are confirmed scum in my eyes.

If you feel that I didn't address your points correctly, feels free to reiterate them.
this is it

while me getting the rifle would prevent anyone dieing tonight, Lando actualy did bring up one good point in his wall of shit. giving the gunsmith tools to the same person with the rifle would protect that person from witches, which is a preaty big thing since the witch would know who the gunsmith is. however, I don't trust Lando at all as gunsmith.

Also

@Vader: I realy highly doubt that all 6 people were killed by vigilante guns. other vaults probably have different mechanics, in which killing and lynching is legal.

[Vader]

@Vader: I realy highly doubt that all 6 people were killed by vigilante guns. other vaults probably have different mechanics, in which killing and lynching is legal.

I did not think about this. Thank you for mentioning it. I will visit the Day 0 thread during the night and see if there are more kills, indicating lynches.

On another note, I really don't know whom to trust. One side of me thinks Roger is Mafia. Another side of me thinks Lando might be pulling some sort of neat trick as witch.

But this is what I suggest. Since the ballot is secret after all, and votes will be kept secret, as well as who finally gets the weapon, I'm assuming, then let there be WIFOM. My vote will fall to Roger, Lando, or myself, since we can vote for ourselves after all. Roger and Lando, of course, have their own votes. If you get the veteran gun tonight, use it. If there's a witch present, unless she received the rifle herself, then she'll have hesitations about controlling Roger, who might receive the rifle. If Roger is scum, unless he knows he has the rifle, he'll be reluctant to fire, too. If the vigilante gun goes off again tonight, depending on who gets killed, then we could hypothesize what kind of scum got the rifle.

Granted, I'm putting Fluttershy, Romo, and Han in danger. But as it stands, I feel no remorse to having them die with their current level of contribution.


tl;dr - We're WIFOMing the vote. If you get the veteran gun tonight, use it.

[Forum Mafia GM]

This is the news brought to you by Rooxxxxyyyyyy, Galaxy Radio's finest and only voice!


Good night sweet things. Roxy is looking out for you, my slumbering children spread out across those vaults. May your dreams bring happiness, and we will soon be together again. One day remaining!