S-FM 354: Short Fuse Mafia

[powerofdeath]

Also theres this last scenario: Helz can detonate Mizery right now and we just play threeway Lylo like normal and end it with voting before scumbot can detonate

[powerofdeath]

Not really. You could give reads on players and participate so we can make an informed decision. Imo its an absolute solve between you and Scumbot. Mizery is confirmed town.

then u just let scumbot kill me and convince mizery to kill scumbot

[powerofdeath]

how is that not solved for you

[Helz]

Also theres this last scenario: Helz can detonate Mizery right now and we just play threeway Lylo like normal and end it with voting before scumbot can detonate

Honest question and not a poke at you. Have you read the entire thread? There is no world where I kill Mizery.

[powerofdeath]

nobody is confirmed anyway, mafia can bus, dont go in postgame acting all shocked how mizery won by killing his partner. its a possibility

[Helz]

how is that not solved for you

That would solve it. But I would rather sort between you two and make the right call than blindly killing within a pool. I think everyone should be able to agree Mizery is confirmed town and allow them to make the decision.

[Helz]

nobody is confirmed anyway, mafia can bus, dont go in postgame acting all shocked how mizery won by killing his partner. its a possibility

But in a 4v2 with you planning on killing someone and them having a kill while they win ties. That would mean not just bussing- but Mizery killing their partner in a situation thats almost a guaranteed win. I would call that gamethrowing more than bussing.

[Mizery]

POD spouting IIOA all day

[Mizery]

The problem with this game is whoever we kill here has to be a wolf, because if they're not the wolf shoots tomorrow and wins. it's lylo right now effectively.

[Mizery]

And PoD isn't trying to do anything so honestly I'm really just down to kill PoD and lose if Helz is the wolf

[scumbot5679]

Well its not like we know where you stand either. Did you ever "reread" the.......3 pages?

[scumbot5679]

^was @ helz

[Mizery]

Helz, who's the top contender for you and why?

[Helz]

And PoD isn't trying to do anything so honestly I'm really just down to kill PoD and lose if Helz is the wolf

This is my read on Scumbot and POD although POD's was typed prior to the 2nd flip:

POD- Hardly participating past shooting and saying they will shoot again. Those plays are bad for both Mafia and Scum imo. Good look on MM pushing them although I did just ISO MM and did not see them ever pushing for POD to be day killed. MM even very specifically voiced against blowing him up so I really do not consider that outside of bussing territory. “He might be scum but don’t kill him” falls well within pillow pushing range especially when its just pressure to contribute that can be backed off and resolved.

I don't think blowing him up immediatly is a good idea, considering we want as much time as possible without people dying left and right, but I do think he is scummy for not even following up with anything.

He has killed a town player and is not hunting. I hope he comes back and actually jumps in.
Scumbot- Killed a town player. There is a prior scum lean in a post

low key think cape and POD are scum here.

At one point he states

MM was pressuring me into shooting Cape over lynching POD. Knowing now that MM was scum and Cape was town does it not look like potential buddy play?

which is untrue. Potentially a misunderstanding given MM did pressure him to answer questions but also potential for misrepresentation. He later poked at Mizery pushing him to detonate which I assume came from this statement

If you don't see yourself budging then why not detonate?

I felt like they were not pushing to kill so much as asking for reasoning although I could see a world where he felt it was pressure to detonate.
That does come to a question of if he is misrepresenting points intentionally or reading them as pressure to kill.
His progression on his read of Cape bothers me. First he ‘low key thinks’ Cape is scum

low key think cape and POD are scum here.

Then is not willing to budge from looking at POD and Cape as scum

I just think its a POD/Cape team and I don't really see myself budging from that position.

Then is ok with killing Cape ‘just so long as others are’

mostly b/c I forgot and I guess I was thinking that we just go in order and lynch POD and then Cape is d2 but I'm good with blowing up Cape if the rest of you are ok.

Then thinks Cape is just a lurker?

I could always just kill cape. On the one hand, it's a decent strat to get rid of a lurker but part of me thinks that Frinkles might just be town since POD is blatantly scum.

I feel like the progression of these reads are unnatural and inconsistent which is a red flag to me. Then after the flip its like he is offsetting blame onto other players for pushing him to make the decision to distance himself from having killed a townie.

[Mizery]

scumbot do you have previous games

[Helz]

Helz, who's the top contender for you and why?

I am more confident Scumbot is mafia than POD. The flip flopping read on Cape and then the backpedaling blaming both you and MM for pressuring him to kill Cape did not fully match what I see in chat. He would have to have 2 misunderstandings.

But there is the risk. If POD is evil he will probably just kill me after you kill Scumbot for the win. Could lynch POD and shoot Scumbot if you trust me to cover everything. I really wish POD would just interact more. The only stuff to read him is him killing 2 zero post players and some interactions around him. MM pressuring him while also specifically saying not to kill him is the red flag that makes me have less confidence that MM was not bussing him. Why else would a mafia player do that? They should be committing to have a person killed in a way they can justify, not advocating to keep them alive while scum reading them..

[scumbot5679]

the idea that I'm not doing anything is ridiculus

[Mizery]

I am more confident Scumbot is mafia than POD. The flip flopping read on Cape and then the backpedaling blaming both you and MM for pressuring him to kill Cape did not fully match what I see in chat. He would have to have 2 misunderstandings.

But there is the risk. If POD is evil he will probably just kill me after you kill Scumbot for the win. Could lynch POD and shoot Scumbot if you trust me to cover everything. I really wish POD would just interact more. The only stuff to read him is him killing 2 zero post players and some interactions around him. MM pressuring him while also specifically saying not to kill him is the red flag that makes me have less confidence that MM was not bussing him. Why else would a mafia player do that? They should be committing to have a person killed in a way they can justify, not advocating to keep them alive while scum reading them..

There are some things I think you should be seeing wrt scumbot that you aren't

[scumbot5679]

lol @ helz copying MM's logic

[scumbot5679]

scumbot do you have previous games

yes

[Helz]

the idea that I'm not doing anything is ridiculus

There is plenty you could do. Make a case as to why you are town or why POD or myself is Scum. As far as I am concerned Mizery is the Kingmaker.

[Helz]

There are some things I think you should be seeing wrt scumbot that you aren't

Maybe. Its very far past my bed time and I am trying not to just hammer on Scumbot while POD lurks by. Very specifically the progression on Cape and offsetting blame with "these people pressured me" were my most substantial red flags with him.

[scumbot5679]

I HAVE BEEN PUSHING POD SINCE PAGE 1. ITS TIME TO EITHER READ THE GAME OR STOP LYING

[scumbot5679]

It's not blame, it's stating a fact.

[Helz]

I HAVE BEEN PUSHING POD SINCE PAGE 1. ITS TIME TO EITHER READ THE GAME OR STOP LYING

I have not lied about anything. And I have seen you have scumread POD sense page 1.

One issue I have is that you are taking stances without explaining 'why' you take that stance most of the time. It makes it hard to understand how you drew your conclusions and when your conclusions seem to shift it makes me question if there was valid reasoning to justify the shift or if that inconsistency comes from the position itself being fabricated. I went out of my way to be clear that some things could be misunderstandings and specifically quoted what was said so others could see the context.

What do you feel I have lied about?

[scumbot5679]

I was also clearly calling Frinkles a lurker, not Cape

[Helz]

I was also clearly calling Frinkles a lurker, not Cape

I did not feel that was very clear at all but thank you for clarifying.

"I could always just kill cape. On the one hand, it's a decent strat to get rid of a lurker"
I read that as killing Cape is a decent strat to get rid of a lurker.

[scumbot5679]

I saw POD detonate for no reason and then Capes wishy washy defensy type post so I wanted to come in and quickly call it before reading the rest of the tread and nothing changed my mind.

I'm more confident in POD. I see little to no town motivation in randomly blowing up a guy that hasn't even posted. I am fine with putting the game on my back and blowing up Cape but I'm under the impression you guys want a dead POD (and who doesn't)

I came into this thread thinking that POD was wildly scummy. I mean, just why shoot someone who hadn't even posted and then he said he'll kill Frinkles for ??? He's not hunting.

oh look. Here I talk about WHY I'm scum reading POD and to a lesser extent, Cape. If you want to argue that they maybe aren't some wildly exotic reasoning then fine but it does disprove your "scumbot is taking stances without explaining why" If I've been scum reading POD since the start of the game... what are these shifts in conclusions that you claim I have? Its like you are just saying random things to paint me in as negative light as you can.

[Helz]

oh look. Here I talk about WHY I'm scum reading POD and to a lesser extent, Cape. If you want to argue that they maybe aren't some wildly exotic reasoning then fine but it does disprove your "scumbot is taking stances without explaining why" If I've been scum reading POD since the start of the game... what are these shifts in conclusions that you claim I have? Its like you are just saying random things to paint me in as negative light as you can.

I was talking about your progression in reading Cape. It evolved from "I low key scum read him" into "I wont budge from thinking he is scum" then "I am good with killing him if you guys are" and finally posts about "I dislike MM and Mizery pressured me into killing Cape"

We can dig into it tomorrow but I literally almost fell asleep. Its about 4 hours after when I normally sleep and I need to call it a night. Feel free to ask me anything specific and I will answer when I am back on.

[powerofdeath]

POD spouting IIOA all day

IIOA?

[Mizery]

information instead of analysis

[powerofdeath]

Ah yeah I tend to do that a lot

[powerofdeath]

well final thoughts before i die:

scumbot is weird with his tunnel on cape and I. (I understand tunneling me but i found cape extremely towny)

helz is playing it too safe and have that vibe of holding back, waiting for hammer

a lil disappointed nobody else wanted to hipfire like me, it single me out and make me look like im a bad guy, gonna get flames postgame lol

[powerofdeath]

tbh i think this game will result in scumbot’s loss regardless of his alignment.

if hes town hes giving mafia win. if hes scum hes wasting his kill on wolfiest town just to get voted/detonated.

[powerofdeath]

rip scumbot, i guess i have to pray helz isnt mafia huh?

would be funny if it was mizery whole time

[scumbot5679]

I died?

If you were trolling scum Ima hate to lose to you but I kinda think it's just Helz.

doubt its Miz though.

[scumbot5679]

I'm not all that sure why you decided to play the way you did (if town) and most everything you say just sounds so scummy.


I wasn't really tunneling cape, I just thought he was a tiny bit scummy for not shooting you and then I felt pressured into shooting Cape, which I regret now.

I'm not sure what we do here, if lynching even matters or if someone just detonates,

[powerofdeath]

lynching does matter

if all three town unanimously agree to vote mafia, mafia have no way to stop it even if they detonate someone

[scumbot5679]

you'd vote Helz?

[powerofdeath]

its a possibility, im 45-45-10 between u two and mizery with 10

[Helz]

well final thoughts before i die:

scumbot is weird with his tunnel on cape and I. (I understand tunneling me but i found cape extremely towny)

helz is playing it too safe and have that vibe of holding back, waiting for hammer

a lil disappointed nobody else wanted to hipfire like me, it single me out and make me look like im a bad guy, gonna get flames postgame lol

Im going to be a little direct here. You literally killed 2 townies without allowing them to make a single post and your saying I am playing it too safe. I have been doing everything I can to push players to stop behaving like that because I think its terrible for the town. You can say its too safe but I would say your play has been utterly reckless regardless of alignment. If you are scum you are successfully knocking out townies and we are probably being overly passive with you because we are in a critical game position. If you are town you are crippling us.
I do not understand the positions your taking. 45/45/10. Alright, Why do you equally suspect me and Scumbot? Why do you suspect Mizery at all? Earlier you were just throwing out the potentials of what will happen if who is what alignment but how does that help us solve the gamestate? I agree with you that 'if' the town gets together on the scum we win -but- such a consensus can only happen through discussion and reading etchother. I would genuinely like to see how you came to those conclusions.

To be blunt I suspect you because you have actively resisted participating in chat until you got your 2 kills off. 2 kills that were both on town players and with zero work to develop reads from them. Early in the game I had my mind made up that if I was going to shoot Mizery I was going to interrogate them first to draw out information so I could scum hunt. Watching the way you killed those two players looked more like you just wanted to see players dead. This is easily an intention tell.
Then there is the IIOA. You are basically playing a mountainous setup where we do not get anything other than flips and interactions so you choose to throw interactions out the window? I honestly question if your post 148 was just to appear to give some kind of participation and if your apathy comes from being a scum player that feels its no longer possible to win. You literally threw that out and followed up with a

anyway, thats all, game is kinda solved, rest is up to you guys

as if you had absolutely no intention of attempting to solve. Your utter lack of self preservation and MM pushing you are pretty much my strongest town tells on you which is not great.

[Helz]

Just to point out some things I have done that makes no sense if I was scum

I have pushed against excessive kills and drawn out exactly the breaking thresholds where Mafia would win depending on their team comp
I then suggested ways to specifically counter a scum blitz for the win
I mapped out exactly why Mizery should be considered confirmed town limited the POE into a pool I am in
I then pushed against a strategy Mizery proposed that could have resulted in a mafia win although it basically included killing everyone which I should want if I was Mafia
I have consistently pushed people to participate in chat and hunt
I recently pushed my read that Scumbot is more likely scum than POD even though POD can easily kill me which is absolutely against self preservation
Oh, and I am the only one of us 3 who has not killed at least 1 townie

I would point out that absolutely none of these things make sense as plays if I am scum. I get the OMGUS from one of you guys who is actually town but from my view its flat out a 50/50 between POD and Scumbot. Take a moment to ISO me if you would like and you will see every statement I made above is both true and would actively work against a scum's win condition.

[Helz]

If you want to argue that they maybe aren't some wildly exotic reasoning then fine but it does disprove your "scumbot is taking stances without explaining why"

I suppose I should explain how I am thinking a bit more clearly.

So a core difference between Mafia and Town is that Mafia knows who is town and who is scum. This means that Mafia players have to 'pretend' to scum hunt by taking positions and then backing that position up with fabricated reasoning. 2 things this can translate to are inconsistency in reads and positions that are not supported by reasoning or are expressed with a disproportionate level of confidence.

So for you- Your progression on Cape felt odd. You were growing more confident in your statements without providing reasoning and then half shyed back before shooting. Then you walked it back pointing that you felt others pressured you. This is the heart of my FOS on you.

For POD- He has stated 45/45/10 which makes zero sense to me. I don't think Mizery should be included at all and it feels like he is fishing for options. But then he puts us as exactly equal in his scum reads. That also feels very off to me. Our plays have been very very different on many levels and we have plenty of interactions and content to read through. I am again questioning if those numbers were just thrown out or if there is actual reasoning to support such conclusions.

Maybe that will make more sense. Its why I am much less interested in "what" a player thinks than "why" they think it.

[scumbot5679]

So for you- Your progression on Cape felt odd. You were growing more confident in your statements without providing reasoning and then half shyed back before shooting. Then you walked it back pointing that you felt others pressured you. This is the heart of my FOS on you.

other than this just being bad logic this is just plain untrue. Is it really that odd that I'd come into the thread and think POD/Cape are scum and then continue to think the same thing 20 minutes later? That's how much time there was between my "low key" and "I'm not budging" posts.

half shyed back before shooting

Earlier you argued that I was basically scummy for not wanting to hero shoot and hear other people's opinions and or more from Cape. My response to that would have been that "stop pretending like that doesn't happen all the time."

the shyed back language makes it sound like I committed to shooting Cape and then didn't want to which didn't happen either.

Saying that I felt pressured to shoot Cape isn't some walk back or excuse or throwing blame, it's just a statement. I did and it's why I did it.

I don't like the FOS language here. You outright stated that I was scum, if walk backs are scummy doesn't that mean that you are scum since calling me scum and then downgrading it to an FOS is exactly that.

All these things that you are "FOS"ing me for happened on page 2. It wasn't until page 4 that you said ANYTHING about them. Of course you did say that you needed to "reread" Which I think is a claim that scum constantly make.

I think your push is an agenda and not in good faith b/c I am refuting your statements and you are outright refusing to accept anything other than the narrative that you have concocted and the reason that you are doing that is


YOU CAN'T PUSH ANYWHERE ELSE

Miz is not going to vote POD. (ofc now you are pushing back on POD a bit now that he called you maybe scum) POD is probably not going to vote Miz. That leaves me, since I know that I am town that means that you are scum.

You also only really become active after MM died.

[scumbot5679]

I also disliked your claim that Miz is kingmaker. I guess he sort of is but the statement seems lazy to me. I was thinking this earlier before you started pushing back on POD and saying that it was "50/50" If you had any conviction you wouldn't want him to be kingmaker, you'd want me dead. I think this shows that you know that I'm not scum.

[scumbot5679]

Helz: I think scumbot is scum

=//=

Helz: ok Miz is the kingmaker

It is a contradiction in thought

[Helz]

other than this just being bad logic this is just plain untrue. Is it really that odd that I'd come into the thread and think POD/Cape are scum and then continue to think the same thing 20 minutes later? That's how much time there was between my "low key" and "I'm not budging" posts.


Earlier you argued that I was basically scummy for not wanting to hero shoot and hear other people's opinions and or more from Cape. My response to that would have been that "stop pretending like that doesn't happen all the time."

the shyed back language makes it sound like I committed to shooting Cape and then didn't want to which didn't happen either.

Saying that I felt pressured to shoot Cape isn't some walk back or excuse or throwing blame, it's just a statement. I did and it's why I did it.

I don't like the FOS language here. You outright stated that I was scum, if walk backs are scummy doesn't that mean that you are scum since calling me scum and then downgrading it to an FOS is exactly that.

All these things that you are "FOS"ing me for happened on page 2. It wasn't until page 4 that you said ANYTHING about them. Of course you did say that you needed to "reread" Which I think is a claim that scum constantly make.

I think your push is an agenda and not in good faith b/c I am refuting your statements and you are outright refusing to accept anything other than the narrative that you have concocted and the reason that you are doing that is


YOU CAN'T PUSH ANYWHERE ELSE

Miz is not going to vote POD. (ofc now you are pushing back on POD a bit now that he called you maybe scum) POD is probably not going to vote Miz. That leaves me, since I know that I am town that means that you are scum.

You also only really become active after MM died.

Your making a lot of claims here. For one you did very specifically go from "I low key scum read" into "I will not budge" on Cape with nothing really happening. This is not even my original thought. Mizery called you out on it and asked you what changed which is the first instance I am assuming you took as being pressured to shoot when they basically asked "If your so sure why are you not shooting?" Both their questioning why you were not shooting as well as what took you from "Low key scum read" to "Not budging from seeing them as scum" were valid so if you want to act like I am just misrepresenting you know this is not even an original point from me that I am hitting on.

I do not believe I have ever so much as hinted you were scummy for not wanting to hero shoot. I have literally been pushing people to stop shooting the whole game. My one exception was Mizerys shot simply because the game was so fucked for us someone had to roll the dice and it payed off. That was the right play in that moment.

What I am looking at is your confidence level. You went from "Low key scum read" to "Not willing to change your mind- they are scum" and then sheepishly said "Im willing to shoot them if everyone else is cool with it." Thats growing confidence without reason then backing down from that confidence when it came to pulling the trigger. Then you pushed that MM and Mizery pressured you into shooting. Mizery had asked you why you had not shot given you expressed certainty to the level of not being willing to change your mind that Cape was scum. MM demanded answers of you and threatened to kill you if you did not answer. What I am weighing in that is if you mistook their statements or if you are misrepresenting them.

I did express I viewed you as the most scummy. And no, my having a FOS on you does not 'walk that back.' It provides reasoning. That post I responded to Mizery with was what I was working on during that period of time. I got home late and was also taking care of life while trying to interact in chat. Doing reads takes a bit and I like to provide quotes so people can see context and understand what I am thinking.

Honestly I do not feel like your refuting my statements. Your just saying "You are wrong" instead of acknowledging my view and explaining your side. I literally can not push anywhere else. I know I am town. I am as certain as is possible in this game that Mizery is town. That leaves you and POD. There is absolutely nowhere else to consider.

[Helz]

Miz is not going to vote POD. (ofc now you are pushing back on POD a bit now that he called you maybe scum) POD is probably not going to vote Miz. That leaves me, since I know that I am town that means that you are scum.

I do not follow this logic. Because you think Mizery wont vote POD that translates to confirming that I am scum? Or is this a bit of a slip where you show that your only calling people scum for the purpose of getting them killed? The logic jump there is very real.

[Mizery]

I.... feel as though I'm ready to bet the game on scumbot being town.

[Mizery]

K nvm gotta think more