S-FM 352: ★ Silent Night 2 ★

[ikarusdk]

People alive atm

Arrow
Achro
Ikarusdk
Stellaria
Ultra
MM
Wiisp
MacDougall

Lets work it out.


Note 1 - I'm probably not going to get NK'd over Ultra because mafia probably want it to be ika/MM.
Note 2 - I'm assuming all day 4 are mislynches.
Note 3 - I'm going to assume that Achro leaves on night 5 if i'm alive on day 5.
Note 4 - If Achro stays, he won't stay for Day 6. So essentially this makes Day 5 mylo in all scenarios.

Spoiler : MISLYNCH SCENARIOS :

Scenario 1> lynch arrow. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5 town 2 mafia 1 neutral
Lynch-arrow >mislynch
NK (assume Ultra is nk'd)

Achro leaves
Day 5 - 3 town 2 mafia
Mylo

Ikarusdk, Stellaria, MM, Wiisp, Mac remain > has to be Wiisp and Mac.


Scenario 2> lynch arrow. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5 town 2 mafia 1 neutral
Lynch-arrow >mislynch
NK (assume ika is nk'd)

Achro leaves
Day 5 - 3 town 2 mafia

Ultra, Stellaria, MM, Wiisp, Mac remain > has to be Wiisp and Mac.


Scenario 3> lynch mac. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5t, 2m, 1n
Lynch mac > mislynch
NK (assume Ultra is nk'd)

Achro stays
Day 5 - 3t, 2m 1n

Ikarusdk, Stellaria, MM, Wiisp, Arrow, Achro remain > has to be Wiisp and Arrow


Scenario 4> lynch mac. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5t, 2m, 1n
Lynch mac > mislynch
NK (assume ika is nk'd)

Achro stays
Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n

Ultra, Stellaria, MM, Wiisp, Arrow, Achro remain > has to be Wiisp and Arrow.


Scenario 5> lynch Wiisp. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5t, 2m, 1n
Lynch Wiisp > mislynch
NK (assume Ultra is nk'd)

Achro stays
Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n

Ikarusdk, Stellaria, MM, Arrow, Mac, Achro remain > has to be Mac and Arrow


Scenario 6> lynch Wiisp. turns out mislynch

Day 4 - 5t, 2m, 1n
Lynch Wiisp > mislynch
NK (assume ika is nk'd)

Achro stays
Day 5 - 3t, 2m, 1n

Ultra, Stellaria, MM, Arrow, Mac, Achro remain > has to be Mac and Arrow.

SCENARIOS 1+2 > If we mislynch Arrow on day 4, we at in Mylo situation.
SCENARIOS 3+4+5+6 > If we mislynch Mac or Wiisp, Achro stays to pitch a vote on Day 5. But he will leave on Day 6 on scenarios
ALL SCENARIOS > Unless the mafia team is actually Stellaria and MM. We will probably be able to work out who the wolves are because of mislynch on day 4.

I think if we all agree Stellaria is NOT a wolf, we solve one of Mac and Wiisp today by risking a mislynch because come tomorrow, it will become clear that it's either Arrow+Mac/Wiisp. FMPOV, mafia will try to argue it is ika/MM. It's something Ultra,Stellaria and Achro to decide.

Also, very importantly, if mafia did work this out and arrow is somehow town, they will try to push for Arrow mislynch today because it is becomes mylo tomorrow without Achro to help us. Achro vote isn't necessary at that point because it will become 3v2 more or less, but something to consider.

[Stellaria]

Woops, didn't realize everyone was supposed to be watching you Wisp. My bad, I missed the memo.

Your meta is meaningless to me. You could just very well be using it as an excuse to react to pressure poorly as scum. Or do you usually have your scummates help you when you're pressured?

[ikarusdk]

Don't insult my mafia game
U act like I didn't already define many wolves teams, so arguing I haven't done anything is silly, and if thays ur arguement anyways you so just kill arrow who has done even less if that's the metric

Noone is insulting anyone.

Your 'defining wolf team' has been >ika/MM or Arrow/Mac.

That isn't something new.

And no, my argument as to why you are probably mafia isn't based on what you've contributed so far.

[Wiisp]

im going to sleep, read that game
vote arrow, because they are low posting in a self-aware wolfy way, contrary to what mac is saying, they need to die, and it removes another question mark from the game which is ahcro

that way if we kill arrow and they are town, if ahcro doesnt leave the game, he is a wolf, if they are a wolf, we get rid of the and achro
im not gunna bank on achro true claiming that they have a bg or not

[Stellaria]

Achro leaves tomorrow regardless. He claimed to have a protect on Ikarus as his Guardian Angel, remember? Mafia couldnt kill him even if he wanted to. If Achro does not leave tomorrow, he's scum. Arrow doesn't need to die to prove that

[Wiisp]

Noone is insulting anyone.

Your 'defining wolf team' has been >ika/MM or Arrow/Mac.

That isn't something new.

And no, my argument as to why you are probably mafia isn't based on what you've contributed so far.

then why am i mafia, i had some super agenda this game, or no, i somehow knew Dm was a wolf, but didnt vote for them or against them, with mac who is also my partner

stop talking to me

[Stellaria]

then why am i mafia, i had some super agenda this game, or no, i somehow knew Dm was a wolf, but didnt vote for them or against them, with mac who is also my partner

stop talking to me

how is this not a silly reaction

[ikarusdk]

Also Wiisp, I feel like your argument is entirely based on 'this is how I play town, just go over my town game', so I am town.

Fair if that is the genuine pov.

But try yourself in our shoes.

We are supposed to believe that because your town game play was such and such last game, your current game must be town game because you are playing it similarly?

It's not like people can act certain ways.

[Wiisp]

ya and that depends on variables that i dont know if they exist or not

[Wiisp]

how is this not a silly reaction

THATS THE SILLY REACTION THAT PINGS U, HOLY FUCKING SHIT AN

[Wiisp]

i do not care about ur shoes, i am also not talking to you, because u are still in the poe

[Wiisp]

good night
you are not going to get me to do more, u can keep trying, but thats my town game, and im not sorry

[Stellaria]

THATS THE SILLY REACTION THAT PINGS U, HOLY FUCKING SHIT AN

AtE + I pointed out that youre entire response to all of my pressure was silly. So much for self aware.

[ikarusdk]

Ok this AtE has been unreal and it's all Wiisp's day 4.


As my scenarios worked it out, we could probably risk a mislynch Wiisp today.

1. I believe Stellaria is town
2. I believe MM is town
3. Ultra is mechanically cleared town.

Voting Arrow loses a vote from Achro tomorrow.
Unless mafia team wants to guarantee a loss, they aren't killing me because unless it is Stella/MM team, they will always try to make it ika/MM tomorrow. So Achro is safe and will leave Night 5 or Day 6. Also I assume Mafia won't be dickish enough to cause achro to lose.
Solving Wiisp today basically means mafia team is Arrow/Mac.

I probably won't change my mind about this unless something drastic occurs.

[Wiisp]

Woops, didn't realize everyone was supposed to be watching you Wisp. My bad, I missed the memo.

Your meta is meaningless to me. You could just very well be using it as an excuse to react to pressure poorly as scum. Or do you usually have your scummates help you when you're pressured?

k, fuck me for posting that game then

[Wiisp]

AtE + I pointed out that youre entire response to all of my pressure was silly. So much for self aware.

contrary to popular belief, AtE does not make someone a wolf

[Stellaria]

My vote on you was a feeler vote to begin with, but you didn't take it well at all. Im gonna take it as it is.

[ikarusdk]

Since Wiisp isn't willing to discuss anything else right now than how this game reflects their last game,

I'm going to assume Stellaria was never on Wiisp's poe because they mentioned Arrow/Ika/MM/Mac, they also believe Stellaria is town.

I personally think it is Wiisp/Mac team right now so yeah all good this game's pretty much solved.

[Stellaria]

Since Wiisp isn't willing to discuss anything else right now than how this game reflects their last game,

I'm going to assume Stellaria was never on Wiisp's poe because they mentioned Arrow/Ika/MM/Mac, they also believe Stellaria is town.

I personally think it is Wiisp/Mac team right now so yeah all good this game's pretty much solved.

Im right there with you

[ikarusdk]

Just gonna wait for Ultra and MM to pitch in here.

But fmpov, we lynch wiisp day 4, mac on day 5, and arrow day 6.

[Wiisp]

everytie ive seen people assume wolf teams it has always been a loss for town

[Stellaria]

Im gonna go to sleep I think this is cut and dry. Good night Wisp, Ikarus.

[ikarusdk]

leaving arrow till last because arrow is either playing a very obvious LHF, or is a LHF.

[ikarusdk]

Anyway, night Stellaria.

Also if anyone took anything I wrote personally, I apologise. They were never meant to insult anybody. I'm just trying to solve.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

No, kill arrow and we talk tmr, that's the optimal plan
Thr vote on me is stupid, your vote on me is even worse cause uve seen my wolf game

There isnt an argument for why I am a wolf except for the fact I don't solve to ur image, but twice now I've been in a game now where town has failed to find wolves, and I'm not motivated enough to br that guy who hunts them down myself, I'd rather play off everyone else. And we finallt caught a wolf who had no tmi, and I'm accused of having tmi

I have haven't had any of these silly reactions thag MM/DK/Arrow have had

You u specifically want to vote outside of thag poe, when it's gaurenteed to contain a wolf, because thinking me and Mac are both wolves is fucking illogical

Don't insult my mafia game
U act like I didn't already define many wolves teams, so arguing I haven't done anything is silly, and if thays ur arguement anyways you so just kill arrow who has done even less if that's the metric

This attitude, while probably stemming from a genuine anger, is not towny, considering you could be angry for being scumread as town or as scum. Besides, you're the one who said earlier that "your job was to lynch wolves, not be towny" or something like that. Well, you have indeed not been towny lol. You can't exactly blame us for not thinking you town when you yourself admit that you don't play towny - and even less so when you lynched Kuti for not playing conventionally. Honestly, I have a bad feeling about your lynch, just because you now feel like a townie (that's really just gut tbh) and because my DM/Wisp associative read is pretty much dead. That said, assuming Ikarus and Stellaria are town - which I am kinda ready to assume, tbh -, lynching Arrow/Mac/you just makes us win, considering Ultra is town. I do not see the scum team being BOTH ikarus and stellaria, like, ever, so this seems safe enough.


THAT BEING SAID. If we mislynch two players in a row among those three, we still lose. It still feels like Arrow is the scummiest here - and let's face it, we're never sparing Arrow in LYLO anyway. Thus, I think ousting Arrow right now is the best course of action

-vote Arrow

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Ok this AtE has been unreal and it's all Wiisp's day 4.


As my scenarios worked it out, we could probably risk a mislynch Wiisp today.

1. I believe Stellaria is town
2. I believe MM is town
3. Ultra is mechanically cleared town.

Voting Arrow loses a vote from Achro tomorrow.
Unless mafia team wants to guarantee a loss, they aren't killing me because unless it is Stella/MM team, they will always try to make it ika/MM tomorrow. So Achro is safe and will leave Night 5 or Day 6. Also I assume Mafia won't be dickish enough to cause achro to lose.
Solving Wiisp today basically means mafia team is Arrow/Mac.

I probably won't change my mind about this unless something drastic occurs.

Oooo, your point is that Achro actually helps us more than anything? Hm. I guess he indeed doesn't change anything to our number of available mislynches, while he has all advantage to follow town votes with his targets. Hm.

-vote Wiisp

[ikarusdk]

Oooo, your point is that Achro actually helps us more than anything? Hm. I guess he indeed doesn't change anything to our number of available mislynches, while he has all advantage to follow town votes with his targets. Hm.

-vote Wiisp

Yeah,

I don't think lynching Wiisp will result in a mislynch, but in case we are wrong, imo the team will be arrow/mac.
Wiisp had a very different worldview with the rest of us so it could've been that I did not see eye to eye with T!Wiisp.
But I'm going with my guts and say the mafia team are wiisp+arrow/mac.

If you think arrow is the scummiest (i disagree on this one, arrow hasn't really been posting to determine that reading, because arrow did post things about ika/mm team and i could buy that from another person's view) we could lynch arrow tomorrow.

If I lose the game for town because it was stellaria/mm all along, then I'm to blame here. I'm not playing mafia for the rest of the year lol. Both MM and Stellaria have been very agreeable so I don't know if you guys were simply fine with me pushing for lynching townies. But without an actual help from our mech cleared town Ultra, and mac who has been on and off for like an hour for each day... i don't know I have been the right person to be leading the lynches.

Shit.. thinking back.

Banana < ika first vote
Kuti < ika led
Dm < ika led
Wiisp < ika led... sigh

Oh well. If I am wrong, blame my lack of proper exp. I wish martin and debs were alive to criticize my thinking.

[ikarusdk]

arrow is specifcally playing in a way that is low posting with no reason to be doing so, unlike Kuti, thats why they are wolfy, and they have reactions that have been hella wolfy
same as mm and DK

all of which can be with arrow, a long side mac

Arrow is a pretty busy dude so i buy his excuse. But what reaction from arrow is wolfy?

[ikarusdk]

If you noticed something we didn't, quote the response and let us know why you think those were wolfy

because quite frankly, when arrow posted stuff, i didn't think they were all that wolfy.

[Wiisp]

Arrow is a pretty busy dude so i buy his excuse. But what reaction from arrow is wolfy?

Aren't we all

[Wiisp]

Uve decided I'm a hit, im just waiting to flip VT at this point, not point in answering anything else cause I'm only wasting my time doing it not to save myself but to help a town that wants me dead even though I haven't done anything wolfy

[Wiisp]

Dmn nothing, unfortunate

[Wiisp]

-vote Wiisp

Let's try this one more time

[Wiisp]

This bot is no fun

[Wiisp]

-vote Arrow

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Yeah,

I don't think lynching Wiisp will result in a mislynch, but in case we are wrong, imo the team will be arrow/mac.
Wiisp had a very different worldview with the rest of us so it could've been that I did not see eye to eye with T!Wiisp.
But I'm going with my guts and say the mafia team are wiisp+arrow/mac.

If you think arrow is the scummiest (i disagree on this one, arrow hasn't really been posting to determine that reading, because arrow did post things about ika/mm team and i could buy that from another person's view) we could lynch arrow tomorrow.

If I lose the game for town because it was stellaria/mm all along, then I'm to blame here. I'm not playing mafia for the rest of the year lol. Both MM and Stellaria have been very agreeable so I don't know if you guys were simply fine with me pushing for lynching townies. But without an actual help from our mech cleared town Ultra, and mac who has been on and off for like an hour for each day... i don't know I have been the right person to be leading the lynches.

Shit.. thinking back.

Banana < ika first vote
Kuti < ika led
Dm < ika led
Wiisp < ika led... sigh

Oh well. If I am wrong, blame my lack of proper exp. I wish martin and debs were alive to criticize my thinking.

Yeah, for the record: if someone thinks this line of thinking comes from scum, I slap them up to Alpha Centauri

And if Ikarus is scum, I slap them outside of the bloody universe after the game xD


As for Stellaria, I think I can accept townreading them and losing to them if they are scum, so IN THEORY we should be good lol. I've been thinking back on the way they handled DM, and I just don't see scum knowing there's a lost wolf casually pointing out "Hey, he's talking about 'group scum', isn't that really weird?" in the carefree manner they had.

Looking at Wisp's recent posts though, I feel like that's a town flip, albeit a probably necessary one
(And it's not like he helped himself either)

[Achro]

Btw. A freebie and a sincere one. I taught wisp how to play wolf. He is town here for sure.

[Achro]

But for some reason no one ever believes me when I say this even though I had him pegged as wolf every game he was wolf in champs last year.

Ah well. Not my circus. Sorry wisp wish I could have towned with you.

[Achro]

Yeah, for the record: if someone thinks this line of thinking comes from scum, I slap them up to Alpha Centauri

And if Ikarus is scum, I slap them outside of the bloody universe after the game xD


As for Stellaria, I think I can accept townreading them and losing to them if they are scum, so IN THEORY we should be good lol. I've been thinking back on the way they handled DM, and I just don't see scum knowing there's a lost wolf casually pointing out "Hey, he's talking about 'group scum', isn't that really weird?" in the carefree manner they had.

Looking at Wisp's recent posts though, I feel like that's a town flip, albeit a probably necessary one
(And it's not like he helped himself either)

I know I am not town but I don't get this. In your world view if you think wisp is probably town then killing him brings town to lylo. You can just vote arrow who it seems is likely a wolf in your world view?

Like I get that is my agenda but you are the one who said I should mark arrow and now you are voting wisp. Kinda weird my dude

[Achro]

I am suddenly interested in this game since mafia can't stop my wincon tonight.

I will solve after a nap. Solving is fun.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

Btw. A freebie and a sincere one. I taught wisp how to play wolf. He is town here for sure.

-vote Arrow

I don't know, it just feels wrong to lynch Wisp here tbh, ikarus. I get your reasoning that keeping Achro around if he's basically town's additional vote is neat, but casually murdering Wisp, who's very likely town, isn't going to help us much. I was half wondering if I was just overly wary of my own past confirmation bias on Wisp, but I honestly just want to follow Achro on this one, as silly as following the random neutral is lol. Wisp seems to have played poorly this game (won't hide it, considering arguing for mislynches and mysteriously avoiding DM while providing no progression is not pro-town, no matter how much you say you don't owe town anything lol), but is probably just town. I don't think I had seen that kind of town!Wisp before, though, hence I'm a little surprised, but it makes more sense than scum wisp now

Also Achro, to answer your question, I just think that since Ikarus and Stellaria are very probably both town and I accept to lose to a world in which they're scum, the lynch order doesn't actually matter all that much, and keeping you around wasn't terribly harmful. Considering how terrible I feel about the Wisp lynch now, though (even though I pushed for it for so long lol), I'm inclined to just go with you here.

Also, I'm probably going to be asleep at EOD, so I probably won't come back until tomorrow. And besides, I'm pretty sure we're always lynch Arrow no matter what if the game doesn't end before we reach that point, so it's not like it's a big deal lol.

[Marshmallow Marshall]

And now I can't think straight and just want to flip flop because I have conflicting thoughts lol so I'm off to bed. Won't hate you if you lynch Wisp instead of Arrow, just think it's probably a mislynch and that we should avoid it

and yes, literally just achro speaking his mind in a very simple manner convinced me xD

[Achro]

Chop order matters because if you have a second wolf it opens up possibilities plus night kills etc. Each new corpse is a chance for new information. If arrow is a hit then the game always gets to f3. That means town has a chance to swing and miss and sometimes you jabe to forgive grouchy town players like wisp and re evaluate.

[Wiisp]

MM, why am I town?

[Wiisp]

W/e happens if I'm alive ill do my due diligence

[ikarusdk]

-vote Arrow

I don't know, it just feels wrong to lynch Wisp here tbh, ikarus. I get your reasoning that keeping Achro around if he's basically town's additional vote is neat, but casually murdering Wisp, who's very likely town, isn't going to help us much. I was half wondering if I was just overly wary of my own past confirmation bias on Wisp, but I honestly just want to follow Achro on this one, as silly as following the random neutral is lol. Wisp seems to have played poorly this game (won't hide it, considering arguing for mislynches and mysteriously avoiding DM while providing no progression is not pro-town, no matter how much you say you don't owe town anything lol), but is probably just town. I don't think I had seen that kind of town!Wisp before, though, hence I'm a little surprised, but it makes more sense than scum wisp now

Also Achro, to answer your question, I just think that since Ikarus and Stellaria are very probably both town and I accept to lose to a world in which they're scum, the lynch order doesn't actually matter all that much, and keeping you around wasn't terribly harmful. Considering how terrible I feel about the Wisp lynch now, though (even though I pushed for it for so long lol), I'm inclined to just go with you here.

Also, I'm probably going to be asleep at EOD, so I probably won't come back until tomorrow. And besides, I'm pretty sure we're always lynch Arrow no matter what if the game doesn't end before we reach that point, so it's not like it's a big deal lol.

Just woke up

I guess we could just

-vote Arrow

[Stellaria]

W/e happens if I'm alive ill do my due diligence

You've been alive this whole game. Why wait till endgame to do your due diligence?

I expect to see more from you tomorrow

-vote Arrow

[The Godfather]

Arrow has been hammered. Stand by for the host's review and day-end post!


Arrow (5 [L-0]): Achro, ikarusdk, Stellaria, Wiisp, Marshmallow Marshall
ikarusdk (1 [L-4]): macdougall

[Frinckles]

ARROW TOOK AN ARROW TO THE KNEE.

HIS ROLE WAS....

Evil Shelf Elf

You are an Evil Shelf Elf! Once per game, you may clean the Mafia factional kill, preventing any role or alignment reveal. You however, will learn the target’s role and alignment.

Additionally, each night you may target a player and redirect any ability they may have used to another player. You must submit your target within the first 8 hours of the night.

The Mafia team consists of you, the Actress and another Mafia member that does not share a night chat with you. You do not know their identity and they do not know your identity.

Very exciting.

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

Night 4 ends on the Wednesday the 23red at 8pm CST! (Not 7pm CST.)

@Ultra
@macdougall
@Achro
@Marshmallow Marshall
@Stellaria
@Wiisp
@ikarusdk

[Frinckles]

ULTRA IS ULTRA DEAD!

HIS ROLE WAS....

Holiday Patron

You are a Holiday Patron! You have no special powers but you love the Holidays!

--------

ACHRO HAS ACHIEVED HIS WIN CONDITION BY KEEPING HIS TARGET ALIVE UNTIL DAY 5! HE WILL NOW EXIT THE GAME AS IT RESUMES. CONGRATS!

HIS ROLE WAS....

Ebenezer Scrooge

You are Ebenezer Scrooge! You can perform any or all of the following actions at night:

Greed: You may mark a player for the following day.

Compassion: Once per game, protect the target player from kills tonight.

Selfishness: Twice per game, redirect your target to yourself. You must submit this target within the first 8 hours of the night.

Achieve any of the following in order to win: Get two marked players executed; Ensure that your protected player lives until day 5; Be conferred a blessing by at least two unique Christmas Spirits.



5 PLAYERS REMAIN..

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

Day 5 ends on the Friday the 25th at 8pm CST! (Not 7pm CST.)[/COLOR]

@macdougall
@Marshmallow Marshall
@Stellaria
@Wiisp
@ikarusdk


Day has changed.
HAMMER/PLURALITY ACTIVE.
3 votes to hammer.