S-FM 350: Chaotic Executioner

[Renegade]

and that manipulation role, if it exists, would have to be specifically on mafia or a low poster or both for gikkle not to be lying.

we can't have double tailors and ren can prove the existence of a gunsmith by shooting. makes no sense for him to lie because we aren't even near mylo.

Either gunsmith or fabricator, or illusionist.

If I shoot and it fails, then it is a fabricator or illusionist.

[Frinckles]

Yeah, sorry, probably not the best post to stumble upon after waking up...

I posted those first 6 before realizing Gikkle could be CE which could change the dynamic by encouraging him to lie about the Carol, especially if he suspects most S are still vanilla.

that sounds like suicide for a CE. because even if I'm outted caroler, I know he's lying and my flip would just get him turbo'd. we also still have 2 PR slots hidden meaning he wouldnt know where to push. so that always come from mafia over CE imo

[Loldebite]

that sounds like suicide for a CE. because even if I'm outted caroler, I know he's lying and my flip would just get him turbo'd. we also still have 2 PR slots hidden meaning he wouldnt know where to push. so that always come from mafia over CE imo

Not saying it's a good possibility, but I didn't consider that at all in my initial post and that was a MASSIVE oversight, so I felt like I had to amend it by mentioning it.

[Frinckles]

Not saying it's a good possibility, but I didn't consider that at all in my initial post and that was a MASSIVE oversight, so I felt like I had to amend it by mentioning it.

I wouldn't trip about optics when it's implausible and were approaching eod, that seems like something scumdebite would do. ( ͠° ͟ʖ ͡°)

either way, occam's razer deathadder says gikkle is lying or we're all missing some crucial detail and I doubt we are.

[Frinckles]

also there's no way you're scum with gikkle anyway. d2 was not scum theater and I can smell that from a mile away

[Loldebite]

that sounds like suicide for a CE. because even if I'm outted caroler, I know he's lying and my flip would just get him turbo'd. we also still have 2 PR slots hidden meaning he wouldnt know where to push. so that always come from mafia over CE imo

btw in the world where Gikkle is CE and lied and you are Caroler, all remaining PRs are exactly Ika, Stellaria & me.

Saying it out loud makes it obvious it would be such a stupid play lol, I don't think that's a possiblility. So Gikkle as CE never fakes this. Great news, because I was afraid there was a world where Gikkle is NOT scum YET all options in the carol are a miselim and that possibility is now out of question.

Which means we should get back to Stellaria, Ika & me

[Loldebite]

I guess another option is that we ask ren to shoot in the Stellaria/ika/gikkle?/me poe and lynch depending on the outcome

[Renegade]

I literally see no reason why Gikkle would lie. It immediately puts them into this kind of thunderdome scenario.

[Frinckles]

btw in the world where Gikkle is CE and lied and you are Caroler, all remaining PRs are exactly Ika, Stellaria & me.

Saying it out loud makes it obvious it would be such a stupid play lol, I don't think that's a possiblility. So Gikkle as CE never fakes this. Great news, because I was afraid there was a world where Gikkle is NOT scum YET all options in the carol are a miselim and that possibility is now out of question.

Which means we should get back to Stellaria, Ika & me

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. It's a stupid play from CE POV. It's not a stupid play from Mafia POV.

[Loldebite]

I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. It's a stupid play from CE POV. It's not a stupid play from Mafia POV.

I had already addressed what I thought of it from Mafia's POV here :

I see many ways this day could be happening, most of which (in)appropriately paranoiac.

1) Gikkle is Town V, Frinckles is Town C, and we have either a bus, a witch or an illusionist;
2) Gikkle is Scum whatever, Finckles is Town C and Gikkle tried a gambit;
3) Gikkle is Town V, Frinckles is Scum C and is lying about NOT visiting Gikkle for an easy lynch;
4) Gikkle is Town V, Frinckles is Scum whatever and is lying about caroler to make everything go to shit;
5) Gikkle is Town V, Frinckles is Town whatever and is lying about being Caroler to cover for him and is planning on "changing his mind" and fleshwagoning onto one of us in the carol later on;
6) Gikkle is Scum V, Frinckles is Scum whatever and they are lying to try to lure the Caroler out.

Of these 2) and 6) seem like the least likely, because I simply don't think either gambit is worth and I don't see either player as particularly fond of HIGH risk plays.

Which makes me want to consider that Gikkle is town for the time being. Which implies the carol is real. Which implies that I've been betrayed by either Stellaria or Ika. Life fucking sucks.

[Loldebite]

I simply don't think it's worth the trouble for scum.

[yoshida]

Gikkle being CE doesn't make sense to me. Him being CE is mathematically possible but there is no way they are winning with this carol claim. Same goes to Frinckles.

[Frinckles]

I had already addressed what I thought of it from Mafia's POV here :

Let's again ignore the CE scenarios because they're terrible.

You're describing scenarios and their likeliness but not looking at their value. Mafia is a value game especially played from a wolf perspective.

1.) I'm outted caroler, meaning I probably take a bullet tonight. That's fine because this is a 1-for-1 trade against mafia. That is value.

2.) You consider a scenario where I am scum!caroler, at which point I get town!gikkle lynched would have gained no value in this game.

3.) Gikkle and I are both town and Mafia basically made play of the decade. Massive value (but come the fuck on)

so, ill entertain you deciding between stell/ikarus if you want to indulge in that fake carol. im just asking that you evaluate this situation from a value perspective and consider voting gikkle.

[Frinckles]

im going to be so livid with gikkle if he retracts.

[Frinckles]

actually there is no way he retracts at this point. he would have done that already unless he thought i was fakeclaiming caroler to protect them and wanted to play along.

[Loldebite]

Let's again ignore the CE scenarios because they're terrible.

You're describing scenarios and their likeliness but not looking at their value. Mafia is a value game especially played from a wolf perspective.

1.) I'm outted caroler, meaning I probably take a bullet tonight. That's fine because this is a 1-for-1 trade against mafia. That is value.

2.) You consider a scenario where I am scum!caroler, at which point I get town!gikkle lynched would have gained no value in this game.

3.) Gikkle and I are both town and Mafia basically made play of the decade. Massive value (but come the fuck on)

so, ill entertain you deciding between stell/ikarus if you want to indulge in that fake carol. im just asking that you evaluate this situation from a value perspective and consider voting gikkle.

So you're really hardcore deadset on the carol being fake, then ? From your POV Gikkle almost never flips green here ?

[Gikkle]

Frinckles, I don't understand why it's easier for you to believe that I'd do the weirdest play as mafia (I would have to claim this knowing I'd get into a thunderdome) over there simply being some malicious actor that targeted two of the highest posters in the game (me and ikarus)

Like at this point I'm wondering if you're just the mafia caroler and you have ulterior motives here

[Frinckles]

So you're really hardcore deadset on the carol being fake, then ? From your POV Gikkle almost never flips green here ?

Barring 3.); No.

And it makes sense even from a non-mechanical pov. Of those three in that fake carol the only sketchy one is stellaria. Ikarus has been fine since we beat him over the head and I've like your tone/pushes all game.

[yoshida]

@Renegade

You have asked for consensus. My take:

I have negative points for both Frinckles and Gikkle. You must take leadership and make a decision between the two before EOD. @ikarushd; will be your bodyguard at night unless we find a town from this execution.

FMPOV Frinckles potential partners are Martin/Buster. Gikkle potential partners are Nancy/?? (can see Martin, lolde, Stellaria)

Please leave some grace period for EOD, so we can analyze the flip.

[yoshida]

@ikarusdk sorry

[Frinckles]

And if mafia really did get a manipulation role AND landed the perfect play this game I think gikkle and I would gladly concede because that's bonkers.

[Gikkle]

@Renegade

You have asked for consensus. My take:

I have negative points for both Frinckles and Gikkle. You must take leadership and make a decision between the two before EOD. @ikarushd; will be your bodyguard at night unless we find a town from this execution.

FMPOV Frinckles potential partners are Martin/Buster. Gikkle potential partners are Nancy/?? (can see Martin, lolde, Stellaria)

Please leave some grace period for EOD, so we can analyze the flip.

Stellaria should be shot if Renegade is going to take a shot.

[Gikkle]

And if mafia really did get a manipulation role AND landed the perfect play this game I think gikkle and I would gladly concede because that's bonkers.

You're acting like me, you, and Ikarus are random people. Me and Ikarus were top posters. You are a generally solid player that people recognize.

There is absolutely no reason to believe a bus driver might not look at me and Ikarus and think to bus drive us. Or to look at you and decide to witch you to one of the to posters.

This whole discussion is wasting my brain power. If you're town all you've done is distract people from discussing Stellaria/Ikarus/Loldebite. Even if you have reason to doubt me that should be something you still try and solve.

[Frinckles]

Frinckles, I don't understand why it's easier for you to believe that I'd do the weirdest play as mafia (I would have to claim this knowing I'd get into a thunderdome) over there simply being some malicious actor that targeted two of the highest posters in the game (me and ikarus)

Like at this point I'm wondering if you're just the mafia caroler and you have ulterior motives here

The goal of your play was divert attention of the game to those 3 slots in the carol right? And you get the added bonus of taking me out if I outted myself. It clearly wasn't a reaction test because it was done so late and you didn't retract even after I outted (I would have been pissed anyway.) Everyone had checked in and so the opportunity arose for you to use a fake carol.

If you're town you would see the value mafia would gain from being able to take out a caroler but you're not town so you are attempting to downplay the gambit and move focus solely on the fake carol. This is even better fypov because it will probably end in a mislynch and me getting shot tonight. You could even say some bullshit tomorrow like "I thought we were roleswapping!" in an effort to dodge a lynch if ren doesn't outright shoot you.

[Frinckles]

You're acting like me, you, and Ikarus are random people. Me and Ikarus were top posters. You are a generally solid player that people recognize.

There is absolutely no reason to believe a bus driver might not look at me and Ikarus and think to bus drive us. Or to look at you and decide to witch you to one of the to posters.

This whole discussion is wasting my brain power. If you're town all you've done is distract people from discussing Stellaria/Ikarus/Loldebite. Even if you have reason to doubt me that should be something you still try and solve.

In both of those scenarios where we are t/t witch or BD (or even illusionist) is always only mafia right? I think(?) everyone has checked in.

[Frinckles]

I mean, if somebody wants to claim that.. well shit.

Has Jeremiah gotten on?

[Loldebite]

I mean, if somebody wants to claim that.. well shit.

Has Jeremiah gotten on?

Yes but he's made like 2 posts

@JeremiahSablan please we need u

[Renegade]

I mean, if somebody wants to claim that.. well shit.

Has Jeremiah gotten on?

Jeremiah has barely been on and Buster hasn't shown up at all.

Mod players should go through an introductory game.....

[Loldebite]

I want to say now that if Frinckles ever moves out of our 4 people thunderdome (excluding him) today he has to die

[Frinckles]

Jeremiah has barely been on and Buster hasn't shown up at all.

Mod players should go through an introductory game.....

We did something like that a while back. I think you were in it (even though you had played a few FMs anyway.)

I forgot about Buster. Okay well, if either of them want to claim manipulation, we lynch in the carol. Otherwise Gikkle gets bonked.

[Gikkle]

The goal of your play was divert attention of the game to those 3 slots in the carol right? And you get the added bonus of taking me out if I outted myself. It clearly wasn't a reaction test because it was done so late and you didn't retract even after I outted (I would have been pissed anyway.) Everyone had checked in and so the opportunity arose for you to use a fake carol.

If you're town you would see the value mafia would gain from being able to take out a caroler but you're not town so you are attempting to downplay the gambit and move focus solely on the fake carol. This is even better fypov because it will probably end in a mislynch and me getting shot tonight. You could even say some bullshit tomorrow like "I thought we were roleswapping!" in an effort to dodge a lynch if ren doesn't outright shoot you.

The value of taking out the caroler isn't worth one of three scum members. At least, not someone with my thread position, since I'd be a powerwolf if I was mafia.

And - to add onto that - the value of any such gambit is made much worse by the possibility of a town doctor or town bus driver. Killing a claimed caroler is much more risky than killing an unclaimed caroler.

[Gikkle]

In both of those scenarios where we are t/t witch or BD (or even illusionist) is always only mafia right? I think(?) everyone has checked in.

Most likely

[yoshida]

In both of those scenarios where we are t/t witch or BD (or even illusionist) is always only mafia right? I think(?) everyone has checked in.

Witch/BD is always mafia in this case, but CE POV jailor makes more sense than witch/bd though since it acts as Bodyguard and a guaranteed road to death. I also doubt buster or clemens got witch/bd. Nancy is the only potential partner I can see to Gikkle and it would be extremely unlucky for you and rest of us if that is the case. I think we can still recover from it if Renegade shoots you and you flip town.

[Gikkle]

I'm going to ignore frinckles for now and focus on solving the three people in the carol, and maybe think about possible partners

[yoshida]

I'm going to ignore frinckles for now and focus on solving the three people in the carol, and maybe think about possible partners

2 + 2 last PR is bomber. Possibility of witch existing is almost none. Mafia caroler gambit coming from Gikkle makes sense after Jailor reveal. Same could be said for Frinckles too. There is no point in looking at your carol right now.

[Gikkle]

2 + 2 last PR is bomber. Possibility of witch existing is almost none. Mafia caroler gambit coming from Gikkle makes sense after Jailor reveal. Same could be said for Frinckles too. There is no point in looking at your carol right now.

Bomber? Wdym?

[Loldebite]

2 + 2 last PR is bomber. Possibility of witch existing is almost none. Mafia caroler gambit coming from Gikkle makes sense after Jailor reveal. Same could be said for Frinckles too. There is no point in looking at your carol right now.

Gikkle claimed carol before the jailor reveal, tho

[Frinckles]

The value of taking out the caroler isn't worth one of three scum members. At least, not someone with my thread position, since I'd be a powerwolf if I was mafia.

And - to add onto that - the value of any such gambit is made much worse by the possibility of a town doctor or town bus driver. Killing a claimed caroler is much more risky than killing an unclaimed caroler.

The carols always include at least 1 mafia as opposed to at least 1 non-town. That means there is a chance of redundancy via consecutive carols. Killing caroler is always the wolf gameplan here.

On top of that, we already know 4/5 roles that CE gave out and yeah, its possible the last one is doctor. But BD or Witch or illusionist play here would have to been a mafia homerun (or an afk town) and the only reason I'm even giving that scenario credence is because CE has picked relatively or outright anti-town roles so far, tailor, gunsmith, jailer.

[Loldebite]

Anyway I GTG but I'll be back

[Loldebite]

The carols always include at least 1 mafia as opposed to at least 1 non-town. That means there is a chance of redundancy via consecutive carols. Killing caroler is always the wolf gameplan here.

On top of that, we already know 4/5 roles that CE gave out and yeah, its possible the last one is doctor. But BD or Witch or illusionist play here would have to been a mafia homerun (or an afk town) and the only reason I'm even giving that scenario credence is because CE has picked relatively or outright anti-town roles so far, tailor, gunsmith, jailer.

Yeah but he would've had to make his gambit WITHOUT those reveals

[Frinckles]

Yeah but he would've had to make his gambit WITHOUT those reveals

That's not entirely true. He had outs and if he had a mafia partner with a PR it makes the gambit easier to pull off.

[Gikkle]

The carols always include at least 1 mafia as opposed to at least 1 non-town. That means there is a chance of redundancy via consecutive carols. Killing caroler is always the wolf gameplan here.

On top of that, we already know 4/5 roles that CE gave out and yeah, its possible the last one is doctor. But BD or Witch or illusionist play here would have to been a mafia homerun (or an afk town) and the only reason I'm even giving that scenario credence is because CE has picked relatively or outright anti-town roles so far, tailor, gunsmith, jailer.

At the time of my carol claim, there were no claimed PRs. I might know Ikarus is jailor if Martin is my partner, but unless you think the other 2 non caroler PRs are both in the mafia, I'd be betting on doctor and bus driver not existing.

I keep getting distracted by you and it's annoying me. If you're town, at least try and put some thought into Lolde/Ikarus/Stellaria.

[Frinckles]

2 + 2 last PR is bomber. Possibility of witch existing is almost none. Mafia caroler gambit coming from Gikkle makes sense after Jailor reveal. Same could be said for Frinckles too. There is no point in looking at your carol right now.

You think so? If CE is picking anti-town roles bomb is usually anti-mafia. Then again if GS is in the game and somwbody misfired we would be fucked.

[yoshida]

You think so? If CE is picking anti-town roles bomb is usually anti-mafia. Then again if GS is in the game and somwbody misfired we would be fucked.

Existence of a potential Gunsmith tells me there has to be a bomber. CE always wants a fast game in this setup with no skips.

[yoshida]

If the bomber is mafia and Ren is CE with a day gun then we are screwed hard. I wouldn't know if we were to vote CE or mafia at that point.

fuuuuuuck @Renegade don't shoot

[Gikkle]

Existence of a potential Gunsmith tells me there has to be a bomber. CE always wants a fast game in this setup with no skips.

Huh, I actually like this line of logic

[Gikkle]

My computer is being annoying which is preventing me from doing the analysis I want to do >.<

[Gikkle]

Huh, I actually like this line of logic

It would mean Frinckles is just straight up lying though

[Frinckles]

At the time of my carol claim, there were no claimed PRs. I might know Ikarus is jailor if Martin is my partner, but unless you think the other 2 non caroler PRs are both in the mafia, I'd be betting on doctor and bus driver not existing.

I keep getting distracted by you and it's annoying me. If you're town, at least try and put some thought into Lolde/Ikarus/Stellaria.

Ikarus could be your partner as well. With scum!Martin on your team you would have had to risk that his assumptions on who jailer was were correct.. which ngl Martin is pretty good at syntax/rhetoric reading. But even that seems weird.

I already said I'd humor the fake carol because I think if I were pulling off that gambit I'd throw a teammate in it for plausible deniability.

One last question though. I'm pretty sure you're just wolf here but if you were town and had received a carol including your name, would you include your own name or replace it with someone else? After that you can ignore me all day.

[Frinckles]

My computer is being annoying which is preventing me from doing the analysis I want to do >.<

Stop using tapatalk bro. Shit sucks.