S-FM 350: Chaotic Executioner

[Loldebite]

Uh that is a very very good point. If vest is the only available protection, that would lock Gikkle as CE wouldn't it ?

That being said I'm not convinced yoshida's take is accurate but we shall see

[Loldebite]

I have explained multiple ways we could be in MYLO. Gunsmith not being the reason doesn't change the fact that you're betting on Frinckles not being Vengeful, Mayor, or Blackmailer.

OH NOES ! A GHOST !

Well there is a single PR out in the air now, and with gunsmith not being scum I don't think scum ever has enough power but mayor is a pretty good argument, maybe I should rerun the numbies

[Loldebite]

I think the best argument for why I'm town is how many people have blindly followed this idea that Frinckles has a red check because somehow a redirector can't exist???
Like there's not even a red check and literally no one has stood up for me or even bothered to try and actually analyze my posts.

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

[yoshida]

If that is fabricator gun feedback then it could be either alignment.

[Gikkle]

OH NOES ! A GHOST !

Well there is a single PR out in the air now, and with gunsmith not being scum I don't think scum ever has enough power but mayor is a pretty good argument, maybe I should rerun the numbies

Well I should add that vengeful alone doesn't make it mylo I think, but it makes Frinckles' play entirely worth it as he takes down 2 townies and learns all of this juicy role info

Point is y'all are playing into his hands

[Renegade]

Fabricator - Forced to visit one person every night. That person will receive an item of Fabricator's choice. Fake vest will not protect. Fake Gunsmith or Blacksmith guns will not shoot. Fake Suit will not Suit. Users are not forced to use the items.



Fabricator gun wouldn't shoot. Host feedback clearly states Renegade shot Gikkle. This can't be fabricator.

So then I got an illusionist feedback?

[yoshida]

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

MYLO is tomorrow if we don't eliminate mafia today.

[Gikkle]

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

That's true, Nancy has been trying. I suppose I meant more of the louder voices haven't really been trying.

[powerofdeath]

@powerofdeath

Does shaman immunity last through the day? vests work during the day?

Shaman immunity does not work during the day. Vests are passive and do work during the day.

[Loldebite]

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

No this is all wrong and I'm stupid, I forgot the initial NK...

yoshida who could be either alignment ? The fabrikator ? Why would fabrikator hand out a fake gun at random rather than a real one to a scum mate ? That looks like suboptimal play for alledged WIFOM edge, not something I'd do as scum.

[Nancy Drew 39]

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

Thank you.

[yoshida]

So then I got an illusionist feedback?

Can CE give out another illusionist despite one existing with jester? I have no idea tbh

Host's wording implies you shot a gun. I don't get the no flip part. I am keep staring at the setup post rn

[Gikkle]

That's bad of you to be dissing Nancy & ika like that. Both have been analyzing your posts.

If anyone is not caring at it's me and tbh I'm fine with that.

On the topic of MYLO, only way we're at MYLO is if scum has 2 extra NK or 1 extra NK and a mayor. Since we have only 1 unknown role I reckon it is impossible for us to be at MYLO. If I'm missing something please do LMK

It's not impossible. One role being unaccounted for is all they need, as it is very possible to be a mayor.

[Loldebite]

MYLO is tomorrow if we don't eliminate mafia today.

Eliminating CE is fine too but yes. We do need to do goodstuff.

I reckon PoD just confirmed Fabrikator ?

Anyway I must go for now, I'll be back in a couple hours. If anyone has a strong opinion on why getting Frinck is better than Gikkle I'm all ears.

[Loldebite]

Can CE give out another illusionist despite one existing with jester? I have no idea tbh

Host's wording implies you shot a gun. I don't get the no flip part. I am keep staring at the setup post rn

Yes there may be another Illusionist

[Loldebite]

It is possible that there are two of your roles in the game. (Your role that you choose, and the same role that Chaotic Executioner assigned to someone).

Here

[yoshida]

Shaman immunity does not work during the day. Vests are passive and do work during the day.

thank you

[yoshida]

Yes there may be another Illusionist

If Ren received a fake gun feedback from an illusionist then how does he shoot a gun

Gikkle didn't mention receiving a vest from Blacksmith, it could only mean they are CE or I am missing something here

[yoshida]

-vote Gikkle

[Gikkle]

Eliminating CE is fine too but yes. We do need to do goodstuff.

I reckon PoD just confirmed Fabrikator ?

Anyway I must go for now, I'll be back in a couple hours. If anyone has a strong opinion on why getting Frinck is better than Gikkle I'm all ears.

Because there are very good odds that mafia has a role that benefits from this play.

Either I'm mafia, in which case the game is just solved - it's obvious I can't win the game in the next 2 phases since my mafia team would be defending me harder.

If FRINCKLES is mafia, that means you are playing right into his hands and he has a plan. Mayor or Vengeful. Maybe Blackmailer.

The best play would be to either skip and force mafia to kill frinckles the caroler (or we get another carol on a more trusted person), lynch frinckles, or lynch neither of us and find some independently scummy person to lynch since y'all don't trust my carol.

[Gikkle]

If Ren received a fake gun feedback from an illusionist then how does he shoot a gun

Gikkle didn't mention receiving a vest from Blacksmith, it could only mean they are CE or I am missing something here

If I am CE then Frinckles is guarantees to be mafia, so idk why you wouldn't vote him if you thought I was CE. I am not the CE and it likely was just a fabricator, though.

[Nancy Drew 39]

-vote Gikkle

[Gikkle]

-vote Gikkle

??

[yoshida]

If I am CE then Frinckles is guarantees to be mafia, so idk why you wouldn't vote him if you thought I was CE. I am not the CE and it likely was just a fabricator, though.

How is he guaranteed to be mafia? I have been giving a lot of thoughts on him being mafia, but I can't guarantee it. I have more confidence in Martin being mafia here.

[Nancy Drew 39]

??

I feel you’re using emotional manipulation or AtE to sway the voting. And no reaction to Yoshida vote?

[Gikkle]

How is he guaranteed to be mafia? I have been giving a lot of thoughts on him being mafia, but I can't guarantee it. I have more confidence in Martin being mafia here.

Because he's acting like he has a red check. From your PoV, he either doesn't and is pushing an agenda (town does not push an uncertainty this hard without analyzing the individual. I think anybody can agree with this), or he does, but he can't have a red check if I'm CE because CE can't be red checked since it'd just appear as not mafia.

[Gikkle]

I feel you’re using emotional manipulation or AtE to sway the voting. And no reaction to Yoshida vote?

I don't think I've let any emotions get into this. I am being sincere when I say that town has a potential to lose (or be really hurt) by lynching me, because Frinckles wouldn't be making this play otherwise.

[Gikkle]

I feel you’re using emotional manipulation or AtE to sway the voting. And no reaction to Yoshida vote?

As for the yoshida vote -
He had a lead up to it with the CE stuff so I knew what made him vote me. I didn't know why you were voting me, though.

[yoshida]

Because he's acting like he has a red check. From your PoV, he either doesn't and is pushing an agenda (town does not push an uncertainty this hard without analyzing the individual. I think anybody can agree with this), or he does, but he can't have a red check if I'm CE because CE can't be red checked since it'd just appear as not mafia.

Well, okay. My reads are awful. I am not a good FM player next to you guys. I think s!Frinckles can FPS or pull off any gambit possible. I didn't like them shepherding for Caroler on D1 and EOD vote on D2. Not sure what do you mean by red check? Didn't he carol ikarus?

[Gikkle]

How I like to do NKA is just methodical process of elimination of who does and doesn't benefit from a kill. This is easier with 2 or more kills, but 1 kill is still technically doable, I'm just more likely to make mistakes or come to a more vague conclusion. So excuse me when I don't solve the game after 1 kill

At least for the beginning, I'm going to ignore the current going ons for now for the sake of this relatively short NKA. I'll ignore the fact that I pretty much know that Frinckles is scum and that one of Stellaria/Loldebite/Ikarus is mafia. I'll address these things at the end, though.

Here is a list of players alive at the start of night 1:

1. Stellaria
2. Gikkle
3. Loldebite
4. BusterCannon
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles
9. MartinGG99
10. yoshida
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade
13. Clemensthelemon JeremiahSablan

When looking for potential kill targets, I think it's reasonable to take out the counter wagon and any low impact posters. Those are all "low value targets", so most mafia teams aren't going to WANT to kill them.
(so removing clemens, yoshida, buster)

1. Stellaria
2. Gikkle
3. Loldebite
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles
9. MartinGG99
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade

This is the full list of players that mafia would be primarily looking for a kill target in. They chose Italiano. The most likely reason is a combination of him being fairly TRed, being a fairly solid player, and not disturbing the status quo.

The status quo at the SoN1 was yoshida was the counterwagon, and Loldebite was having a lot of shade thrown his way by me. Renegade, Martin, Buster, Ikarus, and perhaps myself were all in the "upper PoE". Nancy, Frinckles, Stellaria, Italiano, and Clemens were more on the sidelines.
Organizing this:

-sidelines/generally not suspected
1. Stellaria
5. ItalianoVD
6. Nancy Drew 39
7. Frinckles

-inactive
13. Clemensthelemon

-upper poe/in the thick of things
11. ikarusdk
12. Renegade
2. Gikkle
4. BusterCannon
9. MartinGG99

-under lots of pressure
10. yoshida
3. Loldebite

A mafia who was thinking about their NK might reasonably come to the conclusion that Yoshida or Loldebite might get pushed more the next day. Perhaps anybody in the upper PoE as well, but it'd be seemingly less certain.

Let's establish Italiano's reads:
Town - Stellaria, Nancy, Renegade, Gikkle, loldebite, martin, Ikarus?, yoshida, Buster (initially SRed buster, but was convinced by Ikarus' post to retract that read.)
Scum - Frinckles? (implied in #539 and #540)

I'll say right now - it is incredibly unlikely that a mafia that contains someone under pressure comprised entirely of Italiano's TRs makes that kill. What that means in simple terms - Any mafia that contains at least 1 of (yoshida/lolde) and 2 of (ika/ren/buster/martin) would NOT have made that kill. It would be completely going against their interests. They keep the status quo, and lose someone who TRs all of them. They gain NOTHING from such a kill.

I think, honestly, disregarding that yoshida/loldebite had super non paired interactions day 1, any team with both of them don't kill outside of Martin/Me/Ikarus/Frinckles. Their position is too treacherous to kill Italiano.

I think if the team was like, Loldebite/Martin, I'd probably just get killed, regardless of who the third was. As I suspected both of them day 1, there's incentive enough to kill me. At the very least, they're not really incentivized to keep the status quo. Don't think this team performs the kill on Italiano.

I think a team with one of Stellaria/Frinckles/Nancy is the most interested in killing Italiano. No, Nancy, this isn't the same argument as before, and I don't even have reason to believe you're the scum of the three rn, and in fact I am inclined to believe you're town rn. A mafia team that has at least one member in a safer position is more motivated to kill someone to keep the status quo, as a team that's completely in the PoE is more inclined to try and break out of it. Does this guarantee one of them is scum? No. But probability wise, it's far more likely.

Thus, a team with one of Stellaria/Frinckles/Nancy is the most likely to have killed Italiano. Frinckles particularly, as Italiano implied distrust of Frinckles.

Also, Clemens/Buster probably not partnered because I don't think a third scum member (who would presumably be controlling the kill) would be confident enough in the mafia's thread position to kill Italiano there.

I do take back what I said about Loldebite/Yoshida not killing Italiano - it entirely depends on their team mates. If Yoshida was team mates with Frinckles, it would make perfect sense why he would kill Italiano. Same with Lolde.

There is definitely more to analyze from this kill, but I've gotten a bit rusty since I haven't done this in a hot minute and I'm getting a bit tired. Here's some associative analysis though:

Buster/Loldebite not paired based off some stuff from the start of the game where Loldebite thought Buster was hollowkatt (this is a fairly weak reason but I believe it)
Ikarus/Loldebite very unlikely to be paired based off of day 1 arguments.
Ikarus/Buster probably not teamed based off of very natural posts that Ikarus posted about Buster
Loldebite/Frinckles unlikely to be paired based on how Loldebite has been reacting to Frinckles' shenanigans.
Ikarus/Martin unlikely to be paired based on the jailor story - seemed too detailed to be fake, and I don't think mafia wastes their jailor action jailing their buddy.
Buster/Yoshida probably isn't teamed? I could see Buster bussing Ren, but he barely talked about Yoshida, so voting him at EoD like that and potentially getting him killed seems unlikely considering he probs wouldn't get any cred.


That leaves 60 teams. A lot of teams, but that's 50% of what I started with. Pretty good for one kill, I'd think.

Spoiler : 60 teams :

Stellaria,Loldebite,Nancy
Stellaria,Loldebite,Renegade
Stellaria,Loldebite,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Buster,Nancy
Stellaria,Buster,Frinckles
Stellaria,Buster,Martin
Stellaria,Buster,Renegade
Stellaria,Buster,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Nancy,Frinckles
Stellaria,Nancy,Martin
Stellaria,Nancy,Yoshida
Stellaria,Nancy,Ikarus
Stellaria,Nancy,Renegade
Stellaria,Nancy,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Frinckles,Martin
Stellaria,Frinckles,Yoshida
Stellaria,Frinckles,Ikarus
Stellaria,Frinckles,Renegade
Stellaria,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Martin,Yoshida
Stellaria,Martin,Renegade
Stellaria,Martin,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Yoshida,Ikarus
Stellaria,Yoshida,Renegade
Stellaria,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Ikarus,Renegade
Stellaria,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Stellaria,Renegade,Jeremiah
Loldebite,Nancy,Renegade
Loldebite,Nancy,Jeremiah
Buster,Nancy,Frinckles
Buster,Nancy,Martin
Buster,Nancy,Renegade
Buster,Nancy,Jeremiah
Buster,Frinckles,Martin
Buster,Frinckles,Renegade
Buster,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Nancy,Frinckles,Martin
Nancy,Frinckles,Yoshida
Nancy,Frinckles,Ikarus
Nancy,Frinckles,Renegade
Nancy,Frinckles,Jeremiah
Nancy,Martin,Yoshida
Nancy,Martin,Renegade
Nancy,Martin,Jeremiah
Nancy,Yoshida,Ikarus
Nancy,Yoshida,Renegade
Nancy,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Nancy,Ikarus,Renegade
Nancy,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Nancy,Renegade,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Martin,Yoshida
Frinckles,Martin,Renegade
Frinckles,Martin,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Yoshida,Ikarus
Frinckles,Yoshida,Renegade
Frinckles,Yoshida,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Ikarus,Renegade
Frinckles,Ikarus,Jeremiah
Frinckles,Renegade,Jeremiah

But, accounting for the fact Frinckles is a wolf and there has to be a wolf between Lolde/Ikarus/Stellaria, there's really only 11 possible teams.

Frinckles, Stellaria, Buster
Frinckles, Stellaria, Nancy
Frinckles, Stellaria, Martin
Frinckles, Stellaria, Yoshida
Frinckles, Stellaria, Ikarus
Frinckles, Stellaria, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Nancy, Ikarus
Frinckles, Yoshida, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Renegade
Frinckles, Ikarus, Jeremiah

In order of the ones I believe from most to least,

-believable-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Martin
Frinckles, Stellaria, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Stellaria, Yoshida

-Skeptical, but still somewhat believable-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Nancy

-sad if true, but could still be convinced-
Frinckles, Stellaria, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Jeremiah
Frinckles, Nancy, Ikarus
Frinckles, Yoshida, Ikarus
Frinckles, Ikarus, Renegade
Frinckles, Stellaria, Buster


If you have reason to disagree with any of my logic, feel free to respond with your criticisms - I much prefer to be corrected when I make a bad logical argument, and it's likely I made at least one since I made this when I was tired.

I'm either going to log off for the night or read Stellaria's posts since I've been working on this and haven't had the chance to fulfill my promise. Depends on how tired I get.

Frinckles, Yoshida, ikarus

Bumping that up to the "skeptical" section.

[Nancy Drew 39]

If I hypothetically got the role, I'd choose Frinckles.

Italiano would have made Frinkles his mentee. That means he was at the time of this post, Frinkles was his top tr.

[Gikkle]

Well, okay. My reads are awful. I am not a good FM player next to you guys. I think s!Frinckles can FPS or pull off any gambit possible. I didn't like them shepherding for Caroler on D1 and EOD vote on D2. Not sure what do you mean by red check? Didn't he carol ikarus?

He caroled Ikarus, but I got the carol. And he used that to make a massive push on me, ignoring very plausible possibilities for what may have happened. Town doesn't do this with the information he had without at least analyzing my posts first - from my PoV, he's certainly scum.

[Gikkle]

Italiano would have made Frinkles his mentee. That means he was at the time of this post, Frinkles was his top tr.

This was on page 2...
Posts 539 and 540 suggest he SRed frinckles.

[yoshida]

Italiano would have made Frinkles his mentee. That means he was at the time of this post, Frinkles was his top tr.

That is false.

Read Italiano's follow up

I'm poor at mechanics so gameplay and logic is a big draw for me. You start talking about who is what and why they did that or what they should've done and you lost me. Mentor let's me see how a player plays behind the scenes and allows me to deduce if they are hiding something from me because they're mafia and they become incongruent or if they're open and honest and I can see the congruency between the hidden and open postings.

They clearly respect/fear Frinckles which is a normal thing for anyone here.

I am not sure why do you bring this up now

[yoshida]

He caroled Ikarus, but I got the carol. And he used that to make a massive push on me, ignoring very plausible possibilities for what may have happened. Town doesn't do this with the information he had without at least analyzing my posts first - from my PoV, he's certainly scum.

Fair points on Frinckles. He is never spewed from this. Mafia Caroler is a big possibility here if the real town caroler isn't hiding.

I don't think we can lynch Frinckles here as the only Caroler claimant though. We can only ask them to carol someone tonight and that someone can't be ikarusdk since he is our guardian spirit.

[Nancy Drew 39]

That is false.

Read Italiano's follow up



They clearly respect/fear Frinckles which is a normal thing for anyone here.

I am not sure why do you bring this up now

Explain?

I thought it was interesting that he said it.

[Nancy Drew 39]

That is false.

Read Italiano's follow up


They clearly respect/fear Frinckles which is a normal thing for anyone here.

I am not sure why do you bring this up now

I stand corrected.

[Nancy Drew 39]

He caroled Ikarus, but I got the carol. And he used that to make a massive push on me, ignoring very plausible possibilities for what may have happened. Town doesn't do this with the information he had without at least analyzing my posts first - from my PoV, he's certainly scum.

I’ve been trying to find the post where you initially claimed the carol. Can you requote it for me?

[yoshida]

Explain?

I thought it was interesting that he said it.

I thought so too. It made me feel really good about Italiano.

They basically wanted to have another perspective with a player like Frinckles to see if they can read and deduce better. I think that's clearly a null read with a lot of respect or fear- whichever you call it.

[Gikkle]

Fair points on Frinckles. He is never spewed from this. Mafia Caroler is a big possibility here if the real town caroler isn't hiding.

I don't think we can lynch Frinckles here as the only Caroler claimant though. We can only ask them to carol someone tonight and that someone can't be ikarusdk since he is our guardian spirit.

If y'all don't want to lynch frinckles, that's fine, I'll be confirmed when he isn't night killed.

Best play then is to skip vote or lynch some independently scummy person.

[powerofdeath]

Day 3 will end in 5 hours, no more extensions since some of you asked.

[Gikkle]

I only just now checked my mentions and I realized that I was the target of the caroler
and the information of the carol is actually super useful
this is embarrassing lol.

One mafia is between Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria

Here nancy

[yoshida]

If y'all don't want to lynch frinckles, that's fine, I'll be confirmed when he isn't night killed.

Best play then is to skip vote or lynch some independently scummy person.

We benefit from skip vote today only- no other day.. That's plausible to me. I doubt anyone will be convinced to it though. It would require a lot of coordination from people on what to do at night and this game feels so dead with majority not being present. I think some people won't even notice what happened past 50 posts.

[Nancy Drew 39]

In terms of the main synopsis, day 2 auwt the jester was lynched, the train there may be interesting right at EOD.
Day 3 there has been a lot of reveals of information. Ikarus claimed they jailed Martin. Frinckles claimed they sent a carol to Ikarus, which was "lost" because the jailor gets all the night actions of their jailed target. I claimed to have received a day gun. Gikkle claims to have received a carol with Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria in it.

This confused me. Were those three names in your carol and can you post the exact message, because that’s confusing the hell out of me.

[Nancy Drew 39]

We benefit from skip vote today only- no other day.. That's plausible to me. I doubt anyone will be convinced to it though. It would require a lot of coordination from people on what to do at night and this game feels so dead with majority not being present. I think some people won't even notice what happened past 50 posts.

We could but we still won’t know who and what to believe. If this is the safest vote, I wouldn’t be opposed.

[Gikkle]

This confused me. Were those three names in your carol and can you post the exact message, because that’s confusing the hell out of me.

Yes, the exact three names were Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria. One of them must be mafia.

[Frinckles]

If y'all don't want to lynch frinckles, that's fine, I'll be confirmed when he isn't night killed.

Best play then is to skip vote or lynch some independently scummy person.

Dawg this line is so good I won't even be mad if you win this thunderdome.

[Frinckles]

Good afternoon btw

[Nancy Drew 39]

Yes, the exact three names were Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria. One of them must be mafia.

Can you either direct quote or paraphrase it?

[Gikkle]

Can you either direct quote or paraphrase it?

I can't directly quote it, but the feedback for the carol is in the first few posts of the thread with all the other feedback. Just replace the names with Loldebite, Ikarus, Stellaria.