S-FM 348: Standoff

[Loldebite]

You say you were increasingly conservative throughout the day but what about your early scumread on MM? You voted me after your scumread on MM and you unvoted and continued not to vote MM even afterwards despite maintaining the scumread there.

I mean generally, I generally get increasingly conservative throughout the day.
Just as I told you, I don't really see the point in D1 pushes, I think they're easily cast off as unjustified because they most often are, so I don't think the push in itself is anything remotely significant for anyone experienced enough - which almost all of you are. I voted you not to push you but because I saw it as a good way to provoke interesting and relevant discussion (which it did not), I didn't see why me voting MM would've so I simply did not vote. In retrospect I should've, I stood to loose nothing, after all.

[Vittae]

I mean generally, I generally get increasingly conservative throughout the day.
Just as I told you, I don't really see the point in D1 pushes, I think they're easily cast off as unjustified because they most often are, so I don't think the push in itself is anything remotely significant for anyone experienced enough - which almost all of you are. I voted you not to push you but because I saw it as a good way to provoke interesting and relevant discussion (which it did not), I didn't see why me voting MM would've so I simply did not vote. In retrospect I should've, I stood to loose nothing, after all.

Ok I'm fine with this. You're right you should have voted (lots of votes and lots of movement generates a lot of discussion that we have totally lacked thus game due to the stagnant thread) but I understand why you weren't doing so.

Mind if I ask you more about your D1 read on MM specifically and your interactions with him? In as much detail as you can, time-permitting, please.

[Loldebite]

I mean, your last will was solely associatives and mech iirc so you did lean into it pretty strongly on D1. Do you feel like you were having difficulty with solid evidence solving this game.

Is there really such a thing as "solid evidences" ? NGL those seem very rare, maybe that's just because I'm garbage but I can always - or very close to it - find a way for whoever's on the other side to do what they are doing as town. Look at PQHack in Once Upon a Town, from my POV that HAD TO be scum, but apparently me & frinckles were the only ones to see it. And that dude was literaly in his first scum game ever, so it's not like he actually put real resistance either. If those "solid evidences" weren't enough for the likes of Gikkle, Auwt or jmw I don't think anything ever will be.

Also ftr you aren't quite right the specifics but your head is in the right place with what you're saying about your strategy here (although based on your description you were right to vigi shoot into the consensus, non-consensus vigi shots are typically frowned upon). Basically you're trying to find a way to find deep wolves who the consensus believes are town? I can definitely understand that motivation and why you'd want to do that even if I think you're probably approaching it wrong.

Are there other ways this change in strategy affected your play that haven't been immediately obvious?

I don't think it really has, I still do the same shit I always did, only now I say more of what I kept down or convinced myself was rubbish. Idk, I do get paranoid I guess, since I basically threw Play at your own risk that way.

Mostly the final line which suggested that Miz calling you Debbie had made you paranoid that she was mafia pocketing you which in context was very difficult to see as being a real thought that a villager would think. It read as a big fake performance that scum would think seemed villagery but no villager would actually ever post.

If it's just a joke then ok, I obviously just misinterpreted it.

Yeah it really was a mere joke about mizery calling me debbie despite saying she wouldn't and me pretending to get paranoid about it (it did cross my mind but I shrugged it off).

[Loldebite]

Deb I know you wrote a will and put thought into targeting MM but did you actually think it was likely that you'd die last night? Or was it just a precaution?

No I considered it almost impossible lol

[Loldebite]

Less than .1%

[Vittae]

Reading MM's most recent on site scum game and a quick skim suggests that he was very aggressive towards his partner (Renegade) and was bussing them as well as pretty frequently mentioning them.

Pretty sure this was the game you were in Deb? Was this accurate to how MM played there with game context?

Is MM typically a busser? (Open to anybody to answer)

[Loldebite]

Reading MM's most recent on site scum game and a quick skim suggests that he was very aggressive towards his partner (Renegade) and was bussing them as well as pretty frequently mentioning them.

Pretty sure this was the game you were in Deb? Was this accurate to how MM played there with game context?

Is MM typically a busser? (Open to anybody to answer)

What game is that ? I recall playing a game with s!renegade but didn't recall that MM was scum as well in that one

[Vittae]

What game is that ? I recall playing a game with s!renegade but didn't recall that MM was scum as well in that one

The low post cap game. I think Frinckles misvoted you in lylo and MM won but I've been through so many games that I might be confusing them.

[Loldebite]

The low post cap game. I think Frinckles misvoted you in lylo and MM won but I've been through so many games that I might be confusing them.

Wow I have 0 memory of being misvoted by MM, lemme check

[Loldebite]

UGHHHHH oh yes, THAT game

[Vittae]

Is there really such a thing as "solid evidences" ? NGL those seem very rare, maybe that's just because I'm garbage but I can always - or very close to it - find a way for whoever's on the other side to do what they are doing as town. Look at PQHack in Once Upon a Town, from my POV that HAD TO be scum, but apparently me & frinckles were the only ones to see it. And that dude was literaly in his first scum game ever, so it's not like he actually put real resistance either. If those "solid evidences" weren't enough for the likes of Gikkle, Auwt or jmw I don't think anything ever will be.

I totally understand your issue and highly recommend this article:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...8by-Newcomb%29
While sometimes it is better to just snap find scum, it's not the only method available to your disposal and if you're struggling with that then this is a great way to circumvent it. It's often more accurate than just trying to vote out mafia the more direct / intuitive way (although less applicable in certain lobbies and situations).

This is an understandable viewpoint to have for a fairly new player but I can at least assure you that it's pretty wrong once you get more experience.

[Loldebite]

Reading MM's most recent on site scum game and a quick skim suggests that he was very aggressive towards his partner (Renegade) and was bussing them as well as pretty frequently mentioning them.

Pretty sure this was the game you were in Deb? Was this accurate to how MM played there with game context?

Is MM typically a busser? (Open to anybody to answer)

NGL I don't remember enough to tell you about it, but it looks like just about everyone considered it was bussing

[Loldebite]

I totally understand your issue and highly recommend this article:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...8by-Newcomb%29
While sometimes it is better to just snap find scum, it's not the only method available to your disposal and if you're struggling with that then this is a great way to circumvent it. It's often more accurate than just trying to vote out mafia the more direct / intuitive way (although less applicable in certain lobbies and situations).

This is an understandable viewpoint to have for a fairly new player but I can at least assure you that it's pretty wrong once you get more experience.

And yet they win games

[Loldebite]

But thanks I guess

[Loldebite]

Wish I could vote you for looking me down without throwing smh

[Vittae]

Wish I could vote you for looking me down without throwing smh

Looking you down?

[Vittae]

I'm taking a break from this.

[Loldebite]

Looking you down?

Just a joke on PoD's vote on me - if you read this PoD I'm sorry .

I guess I should stop making these, uh

[Vittae]

Just a joke on PoD's vote on me - if you read this PoD I'm sorry .

I guess I should stop making these, uh

Ok that makes a lot more sense in context. Sorry if I came off as condescending, I didn't mean it in that way.

[Vittae]

I'm so sick of this game though. Too much of a time sink and I'm getting nowhere.

Will be back after a short break.

[Loldebite]

Ok I'm fine with this. You're right you should have voted (lots of votes and lots of movement generates a lot of discussion that we have totally lacked thus game due to the stagnant thread) but I understand why you weren't doing so.

Mind if I ask you more about your D1 read on MM specifically and your interactions with him? In as much detail as you can, time-permitting, please.

I'm been procrastinating a response for hours now so I'll give you a quick & dirty tl;dr of the progression :

Initially didn't like their initial post because the diss on DW felt gratuitous and undeserved.

Then they took ika's argument for themselves and as I said in my self ISO post IIRC, that didn't feel genuine at all to me. I can understand ika not finding the flaw in his logic because he's so engulfed in it himself that he doesn't find it, but I don't believe someone being confronted to it from an exterior POV can genuinely miss the literal previous post saying I'm writing a big post as I spoke. So it felt like MM jumping on an occasion to spread doubt about myself, which is doubly convenient because I'm apparently quite frequently being read as scum when I'm town, so I s'pose getting me mislynched isn't hard.

Then near EoD1 there was a post I really liked at the time that bumped MM back to null. He stayed there until ~midday of D2.

Since then, he's done nothing to redeem himself in my eyes, there was one post that I liked when I first read him near EoD 1 but I don't see what I liked about it anymore so I think it was fluke or me desperately wanting to see something good from MM. I admittedly haven't read their self ISO tho.

[Loldebite]

Got a meeting in just about now, should be an hour or so. Sorry I didn't delve into more details but I didn't really see what you wanted from me tbh

[Loldebite]

Ok that makes a lot more sense in context. Sorry if I came off as condescending, I didn't mean it in that way.

'tis fine, but these joke-ish comments seem to do more harm than anything since they're mostly getting misinterpreted and thus, confusing.

[deathworlds]

"There's been no cases of contradictory feedback so far (with the exception of ikar targeting MM), so I'm discounting bartender."

So you're very confident that your scans are correct here and not tampered with?

If scum genuinely didn't have any way to interrupt your scans I'd be surprised that a hypothetical scum-Mizery would be happy to let you live over PoD. Not only would killing you set up an easy win (just wait for a villager to misvote PoD in lylo) but letting you get one-two actually correct scans and potentially make the game a lot easier to solve (by removing people you can be partners with) would surely be very risky.

Can I ask you what you think scum-Miz was trying to accomplish there by unvoting?

I'm pretty confident that my scans are accurate.

Assuming a bartender has the ability to completely fake someone's feedback (I.E give fake feedback and remove feedback one would normally get), then they would have to both guess my intended target and give a reasonable scan as well, since my feedback gives both my intended target and their role. So, if I say, had to choose between either MM and Mizery for my night 2 scan, then scum would have a 50% shot of correctly guessing my intended target to give me believable feedback. My intended target hasn't changed, and banking on a 50/50 personally seems risky to me, so I'm assuming my feedback likely hasn't been tampered with by a bartender. If we exist in a world with a coward (something I find more likely than a scum aligned bartender at this point, but less so than Mizery being scum) then perhaps my scan on MM was fake, but that can probably be disproven tomorrow night.

As for the Mizery unvote, it still baffles me.
If Mizery was town, then leaving the vote to a 50/50 just doesn't make a lot of sense.
If Mizery was scum, then she would be risking letting a full claim investigator live, and get two sets of untampered info. Like, I get I was a low hanging fruit on day 2, day 2 was probably my weakest day in a very long time, I honestly can't even remember a third of what happened on day 2 (something I have to rectify). But, banking on getting an easy mislynch on pod d1 then a (presumably) easy mislynch on me who was scum read by a bunch of people? Is that a winning strategy compared to lynching me, the fullclaim investigator on day 1, then pushing on the actual low hanging fruit (no offense PoD) day 2? I mean, I'm pretty sure you called it out on day 1, that if PoD survived the day, then scum would be likely trying to push him on day 2 for the easy win. Was scum playing around that? But then why not just kill you? The town leader? Why Varcron? WIFOM?
fuck I don't know, I wish I was more present during this game

[deathworlds]

we could exist in a scumBartender!Vittae world, assuming my tailor feedback was faked, he would have to have had guessed I would target loldebite, and that a tailor scan would be optimal.
It's not if Vittae is scum buddies with Loldebite.
And if Vittae was paired with mizery, they could've just ended the game.

Assuming my MM feedback was faked, then selecting me basically just fumbles all my feedback for the night. But why pick citizen as the chosen role in the scenario where my intended target was my actual target? Why not pick something outrageous like electromancer to basically guarantee that my feedback was fumbled?

[deathworlds]

Going through it, I doubt we have a scum bartender

[Vittae]

Ok if the feedback has the scanned player's name in it then yeah there's no way there's a scum Bartender.

I was leaning against it anyway tbh due to some inconsistencies but that obviously makes it impossible.

Does that mean that it's not possible that MM is a coward and redirected it either @deathworlds ? Because if that's what you're saying then the Cit scan wouldn't show up under MM's name right?

[Vittae]

PEOPLE WERE ADAMANT A SECOND SCAN WOULD BE USELESS

Lmao

[Vittae]

Got a meeting in just about now, should be an hour or so. Sorry I didn't delve into more details but I didn't really see what you wanted from me tbh

Thanks.

Basically just wanting to see if you could be w/w or anything in there thar is clearing because you're the pairing with the most in-thread unaligns rn imo but nothing solidifies it for me.

[Vittae]

Ok if the feedback has the scanned player's name in it then yeah there's no way there's a scum Bartender.

I was leaning against it anyway tbh due to some inconsistencies but that obviously makes it impossible.

Does that mean that it's not possible that MM is a coward and redirected it either @deathworlds ? Because if that's what you're saying then the Cit scan wouldn't show up under MM's name right?

Just in case the wording is ambiguous:

If I were a scum Bartender and you were town, I would need to know exactly that you were visiting Deb on N1 and MM on N2? I couldn't just send you a Tailor result on N1 and a Cit result on N2 and not need to guess the direct targets for your feedback?

[deathworlds]

Ok if the feedback has the scanned player's name in it then yeah there's no way there's a scum Bartender.

I was leaning against it anyway tbh due to some inconsistencies but that obviously makes it impossible.

Does that mean that it's not possible that MM is a coward and redirected it either @deathworlds ? Because if that's what you're saying then the Cit scan wouldn't show up under MM's name right?

No, my scan shows intended target, not true target. So it's still possible that MM is coward. Bartender unlikelihood comes from them having to guess my intended target to make any fake feedback seem believable

[deathworlds]

I should note that my presence at EoD is going to be unlikely, since I'm scheduled to get off work right then, I'll have roughly 30 minutes to spare about 4 hours before EoD though

[deathworlds]

Just in case the wording is ambiguous:

If I were a scum Bartender and you were town, I would need to know exactly that you were visiting Deb on N1 and MM on N2? I couldn't just send you a Tailor result on N1 and a Cit result on N2 and not need to guess the direct targets for your feedback?

And to answer your question, yes, I'm pretty sure that is the case

[Vittae]

As for the Mizery unvote, it still baffles me.
If Mizery was town, then leaving the vote to a 50/50 just doesn't make a lot of sense.
If Mizery was scum, then she would be risking letting a full claim investigator live, and get two sets of untampered info. Like, I get I was a low hanging fruit on day 2, day 2 was probably my weakest day in a very long time, I honestly can't even remember a third of what happened on day 2 (something I have to rectify). But, banking on getting an easy mislynch on pod d1 then a (presumably) easy mislynch on me who was scum read by a bunch of people? Is that a winning strategy compared to lynching me, the fullclaim investigator on day 1, then pushing on the actual low hanging fruit (no offense PoD) day 2? I mean, I'm pretty sure you called it out on day 1, that if PoD survived the day, then scum would be likely trying to push him on day 2 for the easy win. Was scum playing around that? But then why not just kill you? The town leader? Why Varcron? WIFOM?
fuck I don't know, I wish I was more present during this game

I feel like I can somewhat justify the Miz unvote as town. From her position, I can understand her feeling stuck between a rock and a hard place (can relate, was pretty hesitant to switch myself and it's why I ran out of time before I could) and her just refusing to commit as a result. I feel like there's still big question marks around that but it feels much more justifiable for her to have just been overwhelmed / conflicted enough to not vote and / or refuse to vote her townread out of principle than it would be to justify her letting you live as scum because the game for her would have been over if you flipped D1 and the team was Miz/Deb - there is almost no way that PoD survives lylo.

It's worrying me because 1. I don't have other strong reasons to TR Miz and 2. I don't dislike MM's posting, in fact I probably like it more than Miz outside of this. So it's a pretty big sticking point for me rn.

And again N2 - why didn't I die over ikarus if Miz is town? N1 I can maybe justify, N2 I really can't.

[Vittae]

No, my scan shows intended target, not true target. So it's still possible that MM is coward. Bartender unlikelihood comes from them having to guess my intended target to make any fake feedback seem believable

I think both intended targets are fairly reasonable for guesses. The Tailor would be a great way to make you be in conflict with whoever you scan. The cit would be a good way to protect the final maf from being scanned.

If I were a scum Bartender and you town, I'd have personally just have given you impossible roles every night to completely shut you down (eg Electromaniac or something). The play here if a Bartender does exist is weird so I've been leaning against the possibility personally.

[deathworlds]

Could go back to BUCKETSTRAT
You, miz, and MM were in the citizen bucket on night 2
Me, Loldebite, and Ikar were in the TPR bucket on night 2
Assuming one scum claims cit and one scum claims TPR then there's a wolf in each of those buckets.
There's already a 1v1 in the TPR bucket, from an FM!perspective there's a wolf between me and loldebite.
Killing anyone in the citizen bucket forces another 1v1, compared to killing ikar, which doesn't really affect the percentages of a wolf in any particular bucket.

[Vittae]

I should note that my presence at EoD is going to be unlikely, since I'm scheduled to get off work right then, I'll have roughly 30 minutes to spare about 4 hours before EoD though

If there's anything you can reasonably do to convince me that you're town, please do so.

If there's anything I can reasonably do to find you if you're town, please tell me.

I would very much like to not be personally responsible for our loss as is seeming to be all too realistic of a prospect rn.

[Vittae]

Could go back to BUCKETSTRAT
You, miz, and MM were in the citizen bucket on night 2
Me, Loldebite, and Ikar were in the TPR bucket on night 2
Assuming one scum claims cit and one scum claims TPR then there's a wolf in each of those buckets.
There's already a 1v1 in the TPR bucket, from an FM!perspective there's a wolf between me and loldebite.
Killing anyone in the citizen bucket forces another 1v1, compared to killing ikar, which doesn't really affect the percentages of a wolf in any particular bucket.

True in theory but in practice the consensus was one in you/Deb + one in the other four I think?

But it's possible that whoever did the nightkill saw the buckets differently to me and thought "I should keep all the citizen claims alive" yeah.

[deathworlds]

If there's anything you can reasonably do to convince me that you're town, please do so.

If there's anything I can reasonably do to find you if you're town, please tell me.

I would very much like to not be personally responsible for our loss as is seeming to be all too realistic of a prospect rn.

I just don't know if I can at this point.
This game has pretty much boiled down to mechanics to me, combined with being sick and d2 being a -skip day I just couldn't be present enough to be able to be read properly.
I don't know enough about my own meta and tells to be able to provide you with anything that would help. And since my play has been so infrequent as of late, my own thought processes and playstyle are likely different enough to make any meta reads null.

I'm sorry, I sympathize with your position, I really do, I hate being at Lylo and being one of if not the deciding vote.

[deathworlds]

If you did read through my ISOs in the games I provided I hope you at least enjoyed yourself

[Vittae]

Completely understandable yeah.

Now if only I could read Deb for shit we'd be somewhere.

[Loldebite]

Holy shit a lot has happened I'll take a while to read - especially since there's stuff going on in here.

[Vittae]

If MM is scum then his flip (Coward or not Coward) would fairly strongly imply which of Deb and Death were his partner (Death more likely partner if not coward due to Death's claimed scan, Deb more likely the partner if Coward as Death has the only role that a scum Coward could benefit from avoiding).

In theory if I were confident im MM being mafia then it would be best to vote him first but in practice I'm not particularly confident in MM's alignment here even if I am still leaning towards him somewhat over Miz.

Especially so because I'm not really sold on Deb/MM being the pair anyway. It just doesn't really click for me in terms of some or the interactions and both sides are approaching each other in the opposite way than to how I'd expect them to as scum partners.

There's also the fringe possibility of a Deb/DW world and obviously from other people's perspectives my existence makes the whole thing suboptimal as well.

So tl;dr while voting MM today is a possibility I am steering against it and would rather just vote in the pool of the one or more confirmed scum.

[Vittae]

Tl;dr of Death's ISO - Occasionally small glints of towniness on a micro scale but mostly NAI mech posts. Has an early soft of investigator but a terrible last second claim.

There's just not enough here it feels like to make a decision on this without knowing Death prior to this game. I know the mech stuff is NAI from his meta but when you take it out it's... basically just the way he approached his claim and nothing much more.

Going to reread it now.

[Vittae]

Tl;dr of Death's ISO - Occasionally small glints of towniness on a micro scale but mostly NAI mech posts. Has an early soft of investigator but a terrible last second claim.

There's just not enough here it feels like to make a decision on this without knowing Death prior to this game. I know the mech stuff is NAI from his meta but when you take it out it's... basically just the way he approached his claim and nothing much more.

Going to reread it now.

Also the huge wtf moment where Death tells Varcron not to fire N1 as Chemist.

I'm giving Death the benefit of the doubt here because maybe he didn't know better but this is basically mech openwolfing and if this is something Death should know better than to do please make me aware.

At least we know why Varcron likely didn't poison now.

[Mizery]

PEOPLE WERE ADAMANT A SECOND SCAN WOULD BE USELESS

Lmao

And I'm pretty sure it was based on how this is going

i jusut wish he scanned me you don't understand how much i wish he scanned me

[Mizery]

And again N2 - why didn't I die over ikarus if Miz is town? .

why is this a question? like, you asked this to me earlier and I don't even understand how you edxpect me to reply? ??

[Vittae]

And I'm pretty sure it was based on how this is going

i jusut wish he scanned me you don't understand how much i wish he scanned me

I mean. It's more useful for looking at MM/Deb scumteam chances. It doesn't really affect my read on you overall.

[Mizery]

with only one flip for information we are basically stuck in between d1 and 2, playing lylo, and that's just incredibly frustrating

[Mizery]

I mean. It's more useful for looking at MM/Deb scumteam chances. It doesn't really affect my read on you overall.

why didn't he scan me