An Anonymous Message:
Reasonable Assumptions about the flip-
I feel it makes sense for this to be alignment scum. Specifically the fact it’s a killing cult witch but the cult recruitment requires 10 mana while generating 2 per day. This means with 1 person and no votes on them it takes until N5 to get a recruitment. In an 11p game with mandatory voting its unlikely for the game to even last that long. However- if there were 2 of them gaining 2 mana per day they would only need 2 votes to recruit N2. The fact its phrased "Allocate 10 mana from members" also suggests multiple. For balance I think 3 would be unreasonable as the game would be won extremely quickly unless we have some crazy powerful town roles or mechanics madness going on. For this reasoning I think its valid to alignment hunt off toons. It also places us in a gamestate of 2 aligned scum and 'maybe' a neutral? Neutral benign might make more sense otherwise the setup is by design walking into D2 with 8 players and a 2p scum team. D3 with a recruitment and no kill/lynch on the team 6 players 3p scum team 2 town and 1 neutral killer. All things considered I feel its logical for 2p scum team and maybe some kinda neutral benign. It is of note the recruitment role card specifically says "If the target is town" suggesting a neutral (or some other non town) exists. I also feel a multiball is unlikely but not impossible. Allowing from cross killing between factions would offset the issue of a 7/2/2 but thats a tough pill to swallow. I am going to function under the assumption we are in a 8/2/1 because it makes sense for balance and the information from the flip.
Unless the flip is whats bastard about this game in which case there is little we can do about it. Apply Neutons Flaming Laser Sword there..
(Afterthought- If scum team had a factional kill + bulletproof vengeful shot and we see it D2 there is pretty much no chances of a multiball or a neutral killer imo)
After going through Toons ISO :
Matrix- Toons calls them town in 206 then flips to not town in 628. Near the end of the game he is flatly calling them Neutral at best. In hind sight I should have picked up on the certainty gap in that voiced position as well as it was neutral hunting. There is someone in the site who just hard busses all day. If thats not what Matrix was doing and Toons responded to then they should be viewed as clear..
Gravity- Some interactions with and about Gravity. I feel its more likely they are not aligned.
Wilder- Kinda odd. 814 voices he does not care for Wilder or Bisected trains but then at the end of the day he was insulting Wilder? Feels strange although I am not sure it means aligned. Maybe just venting and was pissed off Wilder kept insulting everyone and going ATE?
Claimed a 5 complexity and No N0 feedback
Wagon association:
Last Hope- Looks great. Being the counter wagon is a positive but the fact Toons counter claimed invest on Hope strongly suggests they are not W/W. It turned the situation into a dead set 1v1 eliminating the potential that existed for a train to go elsewhere and that claim would have been absolutely unnecessary for a W/W situation.
Matrix- Looks good. Was voting on Toons long before they were the train and in 896 advocated for their lynch
Gravity- Looks ok. Was vote parked on Hope 793 and 832 they flatly voice intentions to lynch either Hope or Toons. I would expect a scum team mate to consider swapping wagons or do something to shift them but that can be wifomed
Once Upon a Town- Null. An utter mess of vote flopping but with both slots scum read in 805 and a voiced lynch pool including Hope and Toons on 836 I don't feel like any negative conclusion can be drawn.
Politico- Utterly null. Had no thread presence at the end of the day. Could WIFOM if that was intentional or NAI
Wilder- Null with concerns. Lots of vote flopping and weirdly kinda following Once Upon's votes? Post 893 and 895 are of note where he moves his vote to Hope and apologizes if he is wrong. Potential TMI but he also later questions if its TvT wagons so maybe its nothing.
Atlantic- Doesn't look good. Was sitting on hope advocating for hopes lynch and last second swapped trains for the hammer. I have seen scum jump at the last second so they are not on the wrong side of the lynch they know will look bad. The lynch was set to go through at 3-5 votes before they swapped so doing so did nothing but ensure they would be on the other train. I did like that when questioned by Last Hope they dont back down and respond "imma double down. you can be scum with exact role check"
Bisected Souls- Null to bad. They were there pushing their survival and hanging out.. Not voting or really pushing a lynch. I don't get an aligned feel so much as a neutral who could give a shit who dies kinda feel.
All Stars- Looks bad. In 673 they voiced reading Hope as Town and Toons as Null. But then at the end of the day when they stepped in at 935 to swing the wagon the way they wanted they went against their voiced reads voting on Hope. If they town read one side and null read the other voting to lynch opposite of those reads is unnatural and a red flag.
I will also note I know many chats exist and have a few myself. Leaving it up to people what they want to talk about but just be careful saying who is in what chat incase some crazy mechanic exists that would punish the town for revealing such info. Consider what has value in revealing vs potential risk.
https://ibb.co/ZdNSfzN
You can draw some conclusions from this chart but it should visually reflect the basic gamestate EOD1. Please don't try to make me the designated town note taker or argue about your positions. Just clarify if I got something wrong for my own notes. I may not be able to speak like this again (especially if I am dead.)
Politico and Atlantic should clarify their reads. I might ramble about patterns if I am alive.