I'm just terrified we hit wrong between MM and SB and game is basically over.
-vote Marshmallow Marshall
Rereading MM right now - does he have the more genuine read on PQ? By that, I mean, is stealth only taking advantage of the PQ train d2 and d3? MM has been on PQ since d1.
First, assuming MM is scum.
MM+Gikkle+Oliver would mean 2 scum Congressmen, which I find unlikely. And oliver has been wary of Gikkle/3rd CMAN unless I got played in C-chat and they were teammates all along. Anyway, I doubt this is the case, but let me know what you think.
MM+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. But do we believe MM+Lag were bussing each other this heavily D2? If so, then maybe they deserve the win. Do you think MM+Lag could have been bussing to this extent? (I don't)
MM+Lag+Oliver. Plausible PR+Voter+CMAN. This is one I need to check more into, as it is concerning that Oliver has not committed to being willing to lynch MM. But this would also mean that Oliver bussed Lag by keeping vote on her D2 and by voting her again D3 and responding to her comments negatively today. Why do this D3 if he could sit back and wait for people to vote PQR or SB. I will also remind that Oliver unvoted me when I reached L-1 (or was it L-2? I forget, but it's when I felt obligated to reveal as CMAN and did so) D2. There are other hints that Oliver is not team with Lag, like him pointing out to MM when Lag (now known to be fake-)claimed Medic. And then there is this, which I doubt Oliver as scum would put this trio into suspect list (1 scum in 3), then proceed to kill Loldebite and bring it to 1 in 2.
Next, I will post what if SB is scum and MM is not.
I have no time rn, just checking to see where we're going and ?????????? WHY AM I THE LEADING TRAIN
@Lag @oliverz144 @Gikkle you three are probably town; worst case scenario, one of you is scum. Please do not forget to place a vote on PQ. And if you are not already convinced that this is the way to go, just check EoDs, the votecounts, the circumstances around them and - Heaven forbid - my posts about PQ if you haven't read them for real yet. See the spam, see the lynch deflection (twice), see the disingenuous behavior....
Also, Renegade is only strenghtening my scumread on them by literally suggesting I'm scum with PQ. Like, you need to smoke some serious stuff to think that for real xD. I've been trying to lynch him since D1, and had many occasions to get him 100 % spared while remaining unsuspected. For example, I could easily have not posted a "PLOT TWIST" post about my read on Voss and kept scumreading him; if you check the votecount on D2, that would have turned the 50/50 into a 100 % Voss lynch. This is really as simple as it gets, and town!Renegade not seeing this makes no sense, considering he's not a noob or a really low-tier player.
That is where I'm coming from.
If you are town then FMPOV Stealth is scum, but you've been townreading them.
You're riding this PQ hack scum train since day 1, but I've seen nothing but sincere game solving from him from D2 on.
Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.
SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde).
SB+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.
PQ spam ended day 1. I think.
AND NOW I'M OFF FOR REAL
I woke up expecting some sort of solve from you, but instead right now it looks more like you're polling the room to see if you can get a town to flip to wolf side and make the votes 4v4
Like I get how things are concerning... Assuming you're town. But there is little reason to make that assumption without a plausible alternative
I think this has to be the lynch today. If Stealth happens to flip town, game can still go on.
If stealth flips town, then it goes to 7 alive, 2-3 scum. Assuming a townie dies and I survive at night, then it goes tomorrow to 6 people, at least 2 of which are scum, and me plus two town is a majority of 4 votes. If stealth flips town MM has to be scum and we vote MM tomorrow.
If MM is scum I'm 100% sure Oliverz is scum, he would be the next lynch.
Day 3 lynch: Stealth, 7 players remaining
If Stealth is town
Townie dies at night, 6 players remaining
Left with Mayor + at least 2 town to vote MM.
Day 4 lynch: MM
If medic is dead, and they kill me at night, it could go to 2v2. Game over?
Day 3 lynch: MM, 7 players remaining
if MM is town,
townie dies at night, 6 players remaining, stealth removes my votes
Left with 6 players, 5 votes, scum wins if they have 3.
@oliverz144 Lag isn't getting lynched today, and you need to vote. MM or SB.
Or at least tell me who you would be willing to vote.
Mechanically I think SB has to go.
D3 Lynch MM, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with likely 3 votes (SB scum), 2 mafia remaining. Town is still OK but need to vote in unison and lynch a Mafia.
D3 lynch SB, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with 4-5 votes, 2 mafia remaining. Town can afford a mislynch.
Assume we lynch a mafia today (as the failure to do so is a terrible situation). Which lynch would be more informative (considering we still need to correctly identify 2nd and 3rd suspects)? Either one would clear Pao, PQ, and Rene (one of Pao/Rene will not be here D4, I am sure, and that will also become a 2nd clearing as they flip green) and at least allow remaining 2 townies (besides myself and the survivor in Pao/Rene) on D4 to correct their erroneous view (if applicable, such as if Lag is town) of the game as of D3 (those 2 remaining townies would be among survivor of SB/MM lynch + Gikkle + Lag + Oliver).
SB16 flipping red largely clears Oliver, while MM flipping red does not clear Oliver. From that POV, coupled with town's opportunity for a mislynch D4, seems like SB16 would be the better lynch unless we strongly believe MM is more likely scum than SB (better than a 50/50). I still think both of them are scum, so to me it is as good as 50/50 anyway, if not for additional benefits of one vs the other, like what I stated above.
@Renegade is there any way that either Gikkle or Lag gets cleared by one or the other (MM,SB) flipping red? I think not, but may as well hear from you and others, in case I missed something.
oliverz144 I agree with this, there is no way Lag is a more likely suspect than SB, MM, and Gikkle, even despite her disastrous read that Rene+Pao+PQ are scum.
Is Gikkle a viable lynch today? In that, leaving both the powers alive?
Good thunder domes for today are mainly between SB/MM.
On the other hand, Gikkle/Lag works for everyone too.
To be honest I wanted to get rid of MM because he already pocketed Oliver/Gikkle. And him flipping scum would help us proceed.
Another much safer option that I'm okay with is a thunder dome between Gikkle and Lag.
I am okay with either SB or MM lynch for today. Not PQ
So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation, so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4.
So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?
Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.
Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).
Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.
SB16 voted Lag here in #778 in response to Rene's vote on Lag when Lag was MIA for a while. Can definitely be within the framework of a [super weak] bus vote, so this composition is still viable.
Yes, if we are going to avoid the power roles today, we are essentially postponing the decision today, but for tomorrow, the options are going to get thinner?I really don't want to count the chickens here yet. But let me know what do you think?
SB/MM + Gikkle/Lag + (3rd) Oliver/Ren
Becos of Ren's input. I'm beginning to think we should avoid the power roles for today. And then we can decide depending on their night action who to vote tomorrow. But fuck, this looks like I'm looking away at the prize.
PQRnHack if we delay the power vote, it may still keep me in the pool of Scum power from others POV. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing.
I feel like scum power has to be dealt with today.