S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

[theoneceko]

Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron

idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling

[Varcron]

When I've talked to any of you, I've given you the opportunity of worldbuilding to convince me which of the other two are scum. I'm indifferent to who it is at the moment because I'm trying to see who is authentic. Rationally, I never get lynched here because of how my slot has played and voted. That has even less to do with individual skill and more of how the game elapsed.

PQR pushed Auwt's slot to an extent; has been somewhat aloof (didn't vote but likely didn't want Blink lynched.)

You and Auwt have focused on Blink/Ceko/my slot mostly this game, which doesn't help much rn

That's correct today, you are unlynchable even though you are in the potential pairings OR unless you mess up someone really, really badly. The lynch pool today is Auwt/PQ/Me

If you mean by authentic in your pushes I'd say that PQ is likely the less, but you decide as you will. The game is in essence in yours/cekos hands for the town.

We can't know that because he was never there for the last ~30% of D1

[Varcron]

Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron

idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling

I know this is going to sound naive af

But how?

[PQRnHack]

You've been gone since the last chunk of D1

Basically the same timeline from where I called you my top townread, which in my opinion means you decided to coast because you're "safe"

Yeah, I was gone for 8.5 hours cuz real life. I was not expecting town to hammer in my absence, as there was still a whole day left on our 48-hr timer.

[Varcron]

I know this is going to sound naive af

But how?

Unless you're trying to imply that neither scum are online to hammer PQR/myself with both their votes.

[theoneceko]

>_<
@Frinckles who is ur top scum-team

[Varcron]

Yeah, I was gone for 8.5 hours cuz real life. I was not expecting town to hammer in my absence, as there was still a whole day left on our 48-hr timer.

Okay that's fair

I probably got a little bit too hot headed there, I'm going to take a step back for a bit.

[PQRnHack]

Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron

idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling

What's vca? Vote count something?

So from where I sit, I don't see Frinckles+Lag as a likely pairing based on:
-interactions and voting each other
-Oberon (Frinckles slot) left his vote on Lag as the day progressed and Lag received a 2nd vote (L-1). Oberon kept the vote there, leaving in L-1 on Lag for a while, until Blink eventually accumulated votes and got hammered.

For this reason, I plan to vote Varcron and Auwt, in any order. You pick. I know you said you don't want to lynch replacement slot, but from my POV that is clearly the safest lynch today. But to be fair, D3 starts right after anyway, so we have to make the call on Frinckles vs Varcron shortly, unless we want to buy more time to make that decision. But Auwt+Varcron looks pretty solid as the scum team here.

[PQRnHack]

Minor correction

Varcron (1 [L-2]):
Frinckles
PQRnHack (1 [L-2]):
Varcron

idk i feel like this vca is pretty telling

What's vca? Vote count something?

So from where I sit, I don't see Frinckles+Auwt as a likely pairing based on:
-interactions and voting each other
-Oberon (Frinckles slot) left his vote on Lag as the day progressed and Lag received a 2nd vote (L-1). Oberon kept the vote there, leaving in L-1 on Lag for a while, until Blink eventually accumulated votes and got hammered.

For this reason, I plan to vote Varcron and Auwt, in any order. You pick. I know you said you don't want to lynch replacement slot, but from my POV that is clearly the safest lynch today. But to be fair, D3 starts right after anyway, so we have to make the call on Frinckles vs Varcron shortly, unless we want to buy more time to make that decision. But Auwt+Varcron looks pretty solid as the scum team here.

[theoneceko]

What's vca? Vote count something?

So from where I sit, I don't see Frinckles+Lag as a likely pairing based on:
-interactions and voting each other
-Oberon (Frinckles slot) left his vote on Lag as the day progressed and Lag received a 2nd vote (L-1). Oberon kept the vote there, leaving in L-1 on Lag for a while, until Blink eventually accumulated votes and got hammered.

For this reason, I plan to vote Varcron and Auwt, in any order. You pick. I know you said you don't want to lynch replacement slot, but from my POV that is clearly the safest lynch today. But to be fair, D3 starts right after anyway, so we have to make the call on Frinckles vs Varcron shortly, unless we want to buy more time to make that decision. But Auwt+Varcron looks pretty solid as the scum team here.

vca = vote count analysis, fancy term that shows who voted who
tsk tsk tsk. ur contradicting urself

Vote sequence leading up to end of D1 was as follows, disregarding votes outside of Lag and Blink (mostly yours, Ceko).

Oberon(now Frinckles) votes Lag
Blink votes Lag
Ceko votes Blink
Lag votes Blink
Varcron hammers Blink

Would scum Lag+Varcron really cast their 2nd and 3rd votes on Blink to save Lag?

[theoneceko]

Minor correction

+townpoints (i'm being sarcastic)

[PQRnHack]

Not contradicting, I was posing it as a question and expressing doubt. But after further convincing myself that Auwt+Frinckles cannot be a team, it leaves Auwt+Varcron. I know that if it's not Auwt+Varcron, then that leaves Auwt+Frinckles. So Auwt is the safe lynch.

Obviously my post there has two sus events that occurred in the game: either Auwt+Varcron are both scum and placed 2nd and 3rd votes onto Blink or Auwt+Frinckles are team and Oberon/Frinckles was satisfied leaving their vote on Lag/Auwt at L-1. Which event is more likely? I think scum Lag/Auwt+Varcron saving Lag/Auwt (at N-1 and with PQR possibly getting online) is more likely.

[PQRnHack]

@theoneceko from your POV, you must decide which of these two teams is town and which one is mafia.
Auwt+Varcron
Frinckles+PQR

I'm afraid this will be challenging, because I never suspected Oberon D1 and now from checking logs in the past 2 hours, believe Oberon/Frinckles is town. I checked Oberon's and my D1 ISOs, and there was never any hostility in our minimal interactions; if anything, we might look like mafia team (I was first to highlight Oberon's absence with my fake/misspelled vote on him). I suppose you could ask yourself, how would each of the pairings above play as mafia.

[Frinckles]

>_<
@Frinckles who is ur top scum-team

Something with Varcron, probably.

[theoneceko]

Unless you're trying to imply that neither scum are online to hammer PQR/myself with both their votes.

so scum is frinckles + lag?? uwu

[PQRnHack]

well the vca simply confirms the teams I listed previously. We have 1 town voting a mafia and 1 mafia voting a town. Ceko is the deciding vote, so there is not much point for 2nd mafia (Auwt) or for me to vote. No pressure, ceko.

[theoneceko]

well the vca simply confirms the teams I listed previously. We have 1 town voting a mafia and 1 mafia voting a town. Ceko is the deciding vote, so there is not much point for 2nd mafia (Auwt) or for me to vote. No pressure, ceko.

so, ur saying that town!frinckles is voting mafia!varcron, and that mafia!varcron is voting town!pqr

[PQRnHack]

so, ur saying that town!frinckles is voting mafia!varcron, and that mafia!varcron is voting town!pqr

Correct. I doubt that scum!Frinckles would vote scum!Varcron here, but if that's how hard they bus then they deserve the win. and D1 Oberon/Lag (Frinckles/Auwt now) interaction and voting each other (and O leaving the L-1 on Lag) tells me they are unlikely to be a team here; and if they were, then Varcron doesnt even offer that possibility and instead suggests mafia Frinckles+PQR team. So Varcron's play here is clearly aimed at fooling the Sheriff (out of the 3 townies) and not either of the other 2 townies (he put me in his scumread list/pairings everywhere, so he's given up on trying to get a misvote from myself onto Frinckles).

[theoneceko]

man, i rly don't get why pqrnhack tunneled me so hard on day 1. his only vote from day 1 was on me. i couldn't believe a scum!pqr would try to lynch sheriff!ceko, because it is LITERALLY impossible to lynch me when i am town, so i wrote him off as a dumb townie.

however, @blinkskater 's quote here:

2. Why on earth would any scum in there right mind try and claim sheriff when they would know there's 2 town claiming sheriff. Sit back and profit.

makes me believe pqr's plan was to throw shade on my slot and blink's slot. pqr may not have thought he could actually lynch me, but if i was in a lynchable position, he would certainly have pounced on it. pqr yelled "LYNCH BLINK" when blink said he was leaving for a bit. then, when oberon and i were in a thunderdome and arguing about lag, pqr dropped this:

How does anything stated "out" Lag as Mafia, thought?

which made me give pqr townpoints and give oberon even more scumpoints.

[theoneceko]

Correct. I doubt that scum!Frinckles would vote scum!Varcron here, but if that's how hard they bus then they deserve the win. and D1 Oberon/Lag (Frinckles/Auwt now) interaction and voting each other (and O leaving the L-1 on Lag) tells me they are unlikely to be a team here; and if they were, then Varcron doesnt even offer that possibility and instead suggests mafia Frinckles+PQR team. So Varcron's play here is clearly aimed at fooling the Sheriff (out of the 3 townies) and not either of the other 2 townies (he put me in his scumread list/pairings everywhere, so he's given up on trying to get a misvote from myself onto Frinckles).

i don't understand. did varc try to lynch you earlier today?

[theoneceko]

i re-read iso's for lag and auwt. they look townie hewwo !!!

[theoneceko]

varcron's tunnel on oberinckles is objectively bad, UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[theoneceko]

i love how i'm overconfident and was wrong like 80% of the time in this game, but town will still win in the end UWU bc lag/bink who are both town mentioned a varc + pqr team, uwu hewwo, uwu hewwo ???

[theoneceko]

UWOWU HEWWO???

i want to celebrate by petting some cute kitties and puppies

UWU, UWOWU HEWWO!!!

[theoneceko]

They barely interacted, how could they be a team?

Oberon not talking to blink is not indicative of a buddying move, surely you can agree with that.

they both voted lag.
oberon and blink mind-melded for all of day 1 lol

[PQRnHack]

man, i rly don't get why pqrnhack tunneled me so hard on day 1. his only vote from day 1 was on me. i couldn't believe a scum!pqr would try to lynch sheriff!ceko, because it is LITERALLY impossible to lynch me when i am town, so i wrote him off as a dumb townie.

however, @blinkskater 's quote here:



makes me believe pqr's plan was to throw shade on my slot and blink's slot. pqr may not have thought he could actually lynch me, but if i was in a lynchable position, he would certainly have pounced on it.

At that time, I hadn't realized that blink rescinded his Sheriff claim so i viewed it as conflict/thunderdome between you two, and when you suggested that 2 false sheriff claims could be 2 mafia (absurd), that resolved the thunderdome for me and I put my vote on you. I mean you knew that it was a thunderdome yourself:

@PQRnHack since you're more likely to vote me instead of blink in this thunderdome, let me explain why your reasons for scumreading me are bad.
...

I also didnt like the votes on Blink leading to him becoming L-1 and thought evils were trying to hammer him, and I viewed that as a mislynch after I read you as scum in the thunderdome based on that 2 mafia sheriff claims comment.

Then later folks clarified that blink was no longer claiming sheriff, so I unvoted 13 minutes after putting my vote on you and gave it more time to re-assess the situation.

pqr yelled "LYNCH BLINK" when blink said he was leaving for a bit.

That's called a joke

[PQRnHack]

i don't understand. did varc try to lynch you earlier today?

Yes, he did put a vote on me and also numerous times mentioned he viewed me as scum (his top townread of D1, just because I was busy working today, turned into scum for reasons like lurker, been quiet, buddying with Frinckles, pushing Auwt/Lag's slot).
It took me a while and doing some reading of what I missed while I was gone to reach the conclusion that he is trying to fool you (Ceko/Sheriff) and not me(I suppose that was my newb selfish thinking initially: wondering why Varcron, if scum, would scumpaint me and not one of the others - Frinckles or Auwt - to trick me).

[theoneceko]

At that time, I hadn't realized that blink rescinded his Sheriff claim so i viewed it as conflict/thunderdome between you two, and when you suggested that 2 false sheriff claims could be 2 mafia (absurd), that resolved the thunderdome for me and I put my vote on you. I mean you knew that it was a thunderdome yourself:


I also didnt like the votes on Blink leading to him becoming L-1 and thought evils were trying to hammer him, and I viewed that as a mislynch after I read you as scum in the thunderdome based on that 2 mafia sheriff claims comment.

Then later folks clarified that blink was no longer claiming sheriff, so I unvoted 13 minutes after putting my vote on you and gave it more time to re-assess the situation.



That's called a joke

the thing is you ignored liked 90% of the walls i sent you and still voted me

[PQRnHack]

i re-read iso's for lag and auwt. they look townie hewwo !!!

Uhhh from my POV that would make Frinckles + Varcron the team, which is doubtful given their battles and vote going on. But I suppose the only POV that matters now is yours and not mine, but I suppose I can offer my POV for your benefit so you make the right call.

If you are town in my slot, who would you interpret to be the 2 mafia here? I choose to trust that scum!Frinckles wouldnt vote scum!Varcron, therefore Auwt must be a mafioso. And then who is more likely to be Auwt's partner? Oberon and Lag interaction D1 tells me they are not a team, especially with Oberon leaving his L-1 votes on Lag.

[Frinckles]

Uhhh from my POV that would make Frinckles + Varcron the team, which is doubtful given their battles and vote going on. But I suppose the only POV that matters now is yours and not mine, but I suppose I can offer my POV for your benefit so you make the right call.

If you are town in my slot, who would you interpret to be the 2 mafia here? I choose to trust that scum!Frinckles wouldnt vote scum!Varcron, therefore Auwt must be a mafioso. And then who is more likely to be Auwt's partner? Oberon and Lag interaction D1 tells me they are not a team, especially with Oberon leaving his L-1 votes on Lag.

Jeeze atleast let me play the game :P you spelled out two different ways I can't be scum here if you're town lol

[Frinckles]

In all fairness, 'can't' isn't the right word but I'm not really doing any favors pointing that out.

[PQRnHack]

the thing is you ignored liked 90% of the walls i sent you and still voted me

Yes, because I am LAZY. Why do I need to care about walls of text when you suggested the crazy idea that two sheriff claims could be the 2 mafia. But I did read, what was there to respond to? "now jump in my pocket like you did last game and vote blink." asking me to vote Blink was not exactly trustworthy.

And the thing about me quoting a subset of your post, I don't understand your point. I quoted the highlighted.

so, blink and pqrn claimed sheriff. i am technically a cc since i posted after them.

i don't see why either of them would fake sheriff as villager, so i suspect both of them are mafia.

lynch blink, then pqrn

What was so bad about me omitting the other lines? If you're referring to the CC part, why should I include that when I don't trust your CC and therefore it's irrelevant to me? It's not like I was going to accept you for a sheriff after you suggested both blink and I could be the 2 mafias.

My lazy ass is getting tired of us 2 townies having arguments on D2 when the only thing I can do is try to convince you that I'm not mafia and that Auwt is safest lynch from my POV. I cannot change my D1 interactions with Oberon or my "buddying" them or now Frinckles, it is unfortunate that there exists an "appearance" that we could be a team just because we didnt have much of an interaction and no suspicions of one another (obviously attention was on bigger fish D1). In fact, I think the probability from my POV is that Frinckles and I are a team: of LTCs. I believe both Frinckles and I have the correct solve here, so it's not like we're ever going to vote each other.

[PQRnHack]

Jeeze atleast let me play the game :P you spelled out two different ways I can't be scum here if you're town lol

Well duh, that's why I am saying Auwt cannot be town and their partner is more likely Varcron than you.

[PQRnHack]

Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).

I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).

From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt as TownieA and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron that are MafiaA/TownieB.

TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol

[PQRnHack]

uneditable edit

Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).

I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).

From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt TownieA as scum and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron for maf-partner that are MafiaA/TownieB.

TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol

[theoneceko]

Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).

I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).

From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt as TownieA and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron that are MafiaA/TownieB.

TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol

uneditable edit

Interesting thought, at least to me as a newbie. We are in a 3v2 with an outed Sheriff and a side 2v2 mystery. From a strictly mechanical viewpoint (not considering documented discussions, votes, etc.), Mafia probably picks one of these scenarios.
1. Mark the 2 vanilla townies as the scum team, going all in as if either of them is lynched, Mafia wins. If this ploy doesnt work, then a Mafia is lynched and largely exposes the 2nd mafioso, town wins.
2. Mark 1M+1T as scum, 50% shot to end the game and win here. other 50% goes into 2v2 with Sheriff and 1M v 2T. The 1M has gained town cred for including their other maf in the list of candidates to lynch (who got lynched).
3. Mark TownieA as scum and their alleged partner to be either TownieB or MafiaA (or MafiaB). 66% dice, better probabilities if painting TownieA as the sure scum and leaving T_B vs M_A resolution to next day (which won't happen if TownieA is lynched = GG).

I'd like to hypothesize about these scenarios some more, but my head hurts, i've done enough math for the day (at work, while I was not watching any FM action!).

From my solve, we are in scenario 1. Of course this doesnt help Ceko much, as he seems to think Frinckles and I are mafias. Ceko might be thinking we're in scenario 3 where I am MafiaB, marking Auwt TownieA as scum and leaving possibilities of Frinckles/Varcron for maf-partner that are MafiaA/TownieB.

TBH, I hate to be Ceko at this point in time lol

sorry, i did not follow any of this at all

[theoneceko]

varc is my strongest scumread right now.

as the un-cc'ed sheriff, i am leaving a vote-in-spirit on varcon

[theoneceko]

varc is my strongest scumread right now.

as the un-cc'ed sheriff, i am leaving a vote-in-spirit on varcon

@Auwt

[Varcron]

varc is my strongest scumread right now.

as the un-cc'ed sheriff, i am leaving a vote-in-spirit on varcon

Going for another mislynch?

Fantastic

On a serious note though, what PQR said regarding the scum scenarios makes sense

Basically you need to choose who the scumteam is from your POV and roll with it.

[PQRnHack]

@theoneceko i am writing a long msg addressing you. Do you want me to finish and send or to be lazy and forget it?

[PQRnHack]

sorry, i did not follow any of this at all

Lazy and incompetent CEO Your name must be Steve.

[PQRnHack]

Ozy probs screaming at me right now. I am a disgraceful lazy employee who does not give our CEO sufficient credit.

[PQRnHack]

Going for another mislynch?

Fantastic

On a serious note though, what PQR said regarding the scum scenarios makes sense

Basically you need to choose who the scumteam is from your POV and roll with it.

And I am confident in my solve. @theoneceko , if your POV is not Varcron or Auwt, then you need help from your teammates.

[PQRnHack]

Varcron is not offering any help. I am prepared to write a long ass msg because i must do so for my win condition with Ceko and (I believe) Frinckles.

[PQRnHack]

The thing is that, if you truly are town, then the solve should be Varcron/PQR.
But you are so eager to get a lynch that I'm starting doubting, especially considering Oberon's consistency throughout the different games he has played.

Another possibility would also be PQR and you, or even darker, Varcron and you, since Varcron has not been insta-hammered yet.
The fact that you voted someone to a L-2 shows you KNOW 100% what you are doing, but that's the kind of play I would see from a town!Frinckles or a scum!Frinckles.

Fuck, I hate working overtime. But im basically gonna start going thru breadcrumbs to help Ceko make the right calls.

Here Auwt is bussing Varcron while calling out Frinckles and me. What a shocker, the 2 in the 2v2. What is interesting is their solve is Varcron/PQR, which i can assure you is not possible cuz im ready to hammer Varcon now. And even Darker, Varcron and Frinckles, when we have a vote from Frinckles onto Varcron?

-vote Awut

If I lose this game i will be ashamed.

[PQRnHack]

-vote Auwt

[PQRnHack]

I have my solve, it's Auwt and Varcron. If i am wrong, as I was with Ceko, then it is because I suck

[PQRnHack]

@theoneceko it sucks because they put the decision onto the dumbest player ;) just kidding. i am extremely confident in my solve. do not throw please

[PQRnHack]

OK i need to take an action to maybe help Ceko here.

-vote Varcron

. I am committed to my solve.

[PQRnHack]

but ima vote

-vote auwt