S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)
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  5. #5

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    /reserve

    I want to play but probably shouldn't commit to a sign for now. I'll switch if needed.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  6. #6

  7. #7

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz View Post
    This is an extremely mafia sided setup.
    @Helz extremely? how so?
    Town needs 2 correct lynches while Mafia need 3, assuming there's a mafia lynch in the first 2 lynches, while town have 1 named villager as little help for PoE. (He could honestly claim at D1)

    It's probably scum sided, but I think it's perfectly playable.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  8. #8

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    If anything this setup looks town favored.

    From a Game Theory perspective, Sheriff should reveal day 1, since there is literally no reason not to.

    Scum then has a choice, either 1 of them CC's the sheriff, or they let the sheriff claim go un CC'd. I will analyze both scenarios and assume lynches are done randomly.

    First, let's assume Sheriff is un CC'd and generate a probability of town victory matrix for the number of remaining citizens vs number of remaining mafia

    0 1 2 3
    0 1 1 1 1
    1 0 0.5 0.6667 0.75
    2 0 0 0.3333 0.5

    So with the sheriff un-CC'd town has a 50% chance to win just from lynching randomly.

    With a CC'd sheriff then you lynch one of the two sheriff claims randomly, if they flip scum, then the other claim is the confirmed sheriff, if they flip sheriff, then the other claim is confirmed mafia. So with 50% probability you start in column 3 row 1 of the previous matrix and 50% probability you start in a matrix with 1 scum and 3 citizens. With 1 scum and 3 citizens you randomly select 2 of them to lynch, 50% chance you get scum, so town winrate is 0.5 * 0.75 + 0.5 * 0.5 = 62.5% win rate when scum CC's the sheriff.

    Since this is a higher town winrate with random lynching when scum CC's, they are probably better off just not CCing the sheriff, which puts the town winrate at 50% as an absolute minimum. And assuming town reads are better than just random lynching, that winrate can only go up.

    Setup with a minimum town winrate of 50% can't possibly be scum favored

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  10. #10

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    And to put that minimum 50% winrate in perspective.

    Town has:
    - A minimum 35.2% winrate in Mountainous 9v2
    - A minimum 39.5% winrate in Mountainous 11v2
    - A minimum 24.5% winrate in Mountainous 12v3
    Ftr, statistics (this or this) over 30 Mountainous 15er games on MU show that the Town's winrate is nearly identical to EV.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  11. #11

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Ftr, statistics (this or this) over 30 Mountainous 15er games on MU show that the Town's winrate is nearly identical to EV.
    Interesting, not super surprising though - I have yet to be convinced that towns can significantly outperform just random actions on average. Not to say that skill has no impact on the game - on the contrary, it's just that skilled players are just as likely to end up on mafia vs town so it cancels out.

  12. #12

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    Interesting, not super surprising though - I have yet to be convinced that towns can significantly outperform just random actions on average. Not to say that skill has no impact on the game - on the contrary, it's just that skilled players are just as likely to end up on mafia vs town so it cancels out.
    Actually, in the semi-finals and finals of Mafia Championship games - Town overperforms greatly. But it's all good players and most of them know each other.

    Meanwhile, in qualifier games - town underperforms greatly. It's many `less experienced` players and most never seen each other.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  13. #13

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    @Helz extremely? how so?
    Town needs 2 correct lynches while Mafia need 3, assuming there's a mafia lynch in the first 2 lynches, while town have 1 named villager as little help for PoE. (He could honestly claim at D1)

    It's probably scum sided, but I think it's perfectly playable.
    Maybe not 'extremely' but uninformed town only gets the mechanical information of a sheriff claim while fighting an informed mafia vote block.

  14. #14

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    that website states that town has a high win rate when there's lots of town and very few scum, somehow I don't really buy that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Huey The Long View Post
    Naz will die, i can promise you this, i visited there home, i shared the wealth, placed my book on their nightstand and said every man a king 3 times so they will die from my glorious contagion of my political program
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    You sure you dont want to lynch Voss again? he may flip scum this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Distorted View Post
    mags my highest townread and i think hes scum.
    Quote Originally Posted by GoatseOntheCupboard View Post
    NOT TOWN = NOT INNOCENT

  15. #15

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Helz View Post
    Maybe not 'extremely' but uninformed town only gets the mechanical information of a sheriff claim while fighting an informed mafia vote block.
    Welcome to mountainous games :P
    Mafia doesn't have a kill. They are informed and are a vote block, yes, but associations between them can be made. The setup is small, so it's unforgiving for both sides.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  16. #16

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Welcome to mountainous games :P
    Mafia doesn't have a kill. They are informed and are a vote block, yes, but associations between them can be made. The setup is small, so it's unforgiving for both sides.
    I think if town gets an early mafia kill they have a fair shot. If they don't theres a good chance for it to be a sweep.

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  18. #18

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    Town wins half the time just by lynching randomly though, how is that scum favored?
    D2 is dangerous for town because mafia have day chat and it's majority lynch; meaning 1 misvote at any point in the day by a townie and the scum can hammer.
    Also, it being nightless means that after a day1 hard bus - there would never be any reason for the other scum to be doubted, since the 'Mafia' can't kill him.
    Theatrics would require some experience imho though.
    (on the other perspective, scum can't night kill a problematic townie)

    But yeah, 1 Mafia lynch in first 2 days with regular play - I'd bet on Town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  19. #19

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    I honestly think balance is more player dependant than setups in this case.

    Also time zones could make the game be scum sided, if none of 6 players are never online at same time - easy to coordinate for scum; difficult to solve for town.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  20. #20

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    The more I think about it, the less interesting the setup seems though.

    Day 1 - First third of the day is allocated for players to claim sheriff. If there is 1 sheriff claim - that sheriff just picks a random order of the other players to lynch. Town then follows that order for the rest of the game and wins 50% of the time. If there are 2 sheriff claims - then town randomly lynches one - the one being lynched before dying issues a random order of the other players to lynch, if they flip real sheriff - then you lynch the CC and follow the real sheriff's orders and town wins 50% of the time. If they flip scum - then the living real sheriff issues a random order and town wins 75% of the time. (62.5% winrate on average)

    Town winrate higher with CC, so scum doesn't CC. Real sheriff just runs the game lynching randomly, no one votes other than to follow sheriff's orders. Town wins 50% of the time. More if their reads are good, less if their reads are bad. Or exactly 50% if they just use a random number generator.

    It's very hard to imagine town doing better with an uncoordinated strategy rather than the one I presented - so I guess the game gets more interesting if town wants to play sub-optimally. But otherwise this setup feels kind of solved
    Last edited by LagAttack; May 26th, 2021 at 10:08 PM.

  21. #21

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    Town wins half the time just by lynching randomly though, how is that scum favored?
    This actually should be the incarnation of balance, since only player skill tips the scales.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

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  27. #27

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Everyone is apparently to lazy to play this setup..

    Can we get a different one also posted that may be more suited to what the people want!?
    The mini queue is currently empty after this setup, and it has only been here for one week, so it's not unthinkable to keep it for a bit. People might just be busy (like me), and it's a 6P, so it can't be that hard to fill.

    If it remains unsuccessful and if there is someone else in the mini queue, then that could become a better option
    Last edited by Marshmallow Marshall; May 31st, 2021 at 03:29 AM.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  28. #28

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    The mini queue is currently empty after this setup, and it has only been here for one week, so it's not unthinkable to keep it for a bit. People might just be busy (like me), and it's a 6P, so it can't be that hard to fill.

    If it remains unsuccessful and if there is someone else in the mini queue, then that could become a better option
    ARE YOU SCUM?

    REEEEEEEEEEE
    This isn't where i parked my car.....

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  30. #30

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    ARE YOU SCUM?

    REEEEEEEEEEE
    xD
    I'm scum but so are you!

    The Mini Queue is taking successors btw...
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  31. #31

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    /sign
    Quote Originally Posted by Huey The Long View Post
    Naz will die, i can promise you this, i visited there home, i shared the wealth, placed my book on their nightstand and said every man a king 3 times so they will die from my glorious contagion of my political program
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    You sure you dont want to lynch Voss again? he may flip scum this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Distorted View Post
    mags my highest townread and i think hes scum.
    Quote Originally Posted by GoatseOntheCupboard View Post
    NOT TOWN = NOT INNOCENT

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  36. #36

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Please don't force me to to play on MU...

    I'd rather eat a bucket of rusty glass than put myself through extreme torture like that.
    Do you know Percy
    Quote Originally Posted by Huey The Long View Post
    Naz will die, i can promise you this, i visited there home, i shared the wealth, placed my book on their nightstand and said every man a king 3 times so they will die from my glorious contagion of my political program
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    You sure you dont want to lynch Voss again? he may flip scum this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Distorted View Post
    mags my highest townread and i think hes scum.
    Quote Originally Posted by GoatseOntheCupboard View Post
    NOT TOWN = NOT INNOCENT

  37. #37

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    Do you know Percy
    I hate Percy&friends.
    They're all like "I'm confident I'll be able to read Percy &friends as the game goes on, D1 I want other slots lynched" - and suddenly D1 PoE is everyone who's not of that group.
    It's disgusting playing with them imho.
    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    from time to time, I act very much like a normal person.

  38. #38

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I hate Percy&friends.
    They're all like "I'm confident I'll be able to read Percy &friends as the game goes on, D1 I want other slots lynched" - and suddenly D1 PoE is everyone who's not of that group.
    It's disgusting playing with them imho.
    only on MU ^-^

    i'm looking forward to playing this btw

  39. #39

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  42. #42

    Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Lazy Town Mayor here. As a reminder, it's 3 votes to hammer today, so even one T-on-T vote could allow M+M to slaughter (but at least all eyes would be on them D2). The mayo asks town to hold off putting down random votes, so just stay lazy.

    I will start with my tentative vote(s): KILL COLORED NAMES FIRST!
    same as my earlier post #35

 

 

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