★ S-FM 323 (Ladder): Silent(er) Night (14P) ★

[Light_Yagami]

So Far On A RNG 3 Of Us Have A Chance To Die.. Ill Take Them Odds..

[PQRnHack]

That doesn't look right, I did an unvote (of my LY vote)

[Mike]

Frostbyte do you have anything to contribute?

[bakermir]

Are you claiming Holiday Angel or Lover?

Early game neutral claims gain town cred. Late games receive a lynch.

Sorry SJ I can't answer that. Town and Neutrals need to hide their roles until we find a member of mafia.

[bakermir]

no. last time this setup was played I was Angel and it would’ve been a huge mistake for town to lynch me
If a neutral is scum aligned, we’ll deal with them later. We need to lynch scum.

YOu are correct on this partially, Mafia should be our focus for now but I wouldn't be sad lynching neutrals. A potential actress can CC anyone in this game and if they cc neutrals then we will have to lynch both players in the end, I don't think we can let neutrals live with an actress alive.

[Numbertwo]

im here! what's happening is someone going to be lynched today?

[Numbertwo]

-vote Oberon

I have lynched light so many times and it always ends badly, lol

[Helz]

GREETINGS EARTHLINGS.
WE COME IN PEACE.

Actually I Would Love To Get Lynched D1 Hehe
You Damn Trolls!

Strike Me Down And Ill Become More Powerful Then You Can Ever Imagine.

Holiday Angel
You are a benevolent angel, watching over a someone attending the Holiday Party.
At the beginning of the game, you will be given a random player who you must protect - you will not learn their role.
You are able to use your ability during the day or at night, in order to protect your target after a delay.
If used during the day you will make your target night immune following night. If used at night, your target will become lynch-proof the following day.
You may use this ability twice and it can be used if you are dead.
You will die if you target dies.
You win if your target survives until the end of the game, regardless of whether they win.
You cannot be role-blocked.
The action of protecting your target does not count as a visit.

Just to point it out, Holiday Angel has no need to survive for their win condition. If anyone is the Holiday Angel I would advocate for you to reveal. In doing so you could leverage cooperating with town to keep your target alive when it becomes necessary.

I will also mention that because the setup leans in scums favor with 'soft night-peeks', a large non-town pool, scum possessing many ability's to manipulate flips, and towns general lack of mechanical information it would make a lot of sense for that neutral to be town sided. In a word- town can loose majority with just 2 bad lynches.

All that said- Holiday Angel the town pretty much needs you and can not afford to lynch you. Revealing yourself will put you in a stronger position to achieve your win condition while risking nothing even if town players go full derp lynch happy.

[Helz]

-vote no lynch

D1 9/5
D2 8/5 with 1 nk giving 38.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town
D3 6/5 if bad N2 lynch and nk giving 45.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town

So a no lynch D1 extends the worst case situation from N2 maj loss to a N3 while statistically in favor of ensuring a D4 for the town. I didn't completely game it out but I believe this is just optimal play and the setup says nothing against no-lynches.

Not to mention D1 was trash.

[PQRnHack]

-vote no lynch

D1 9/5
D2 8/5 with 1 nk giving 38.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town
D3 6/5 if bad N2 lynch and nk giving 45.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town

So a no lynch D1 extends the worst case situation from N2 maj loss to a N3 while statistically in favor of ensuring a D4 for the town. I didn't completely game it out but I believe this is just optimal play and the setup says nothing against no-lynches.

Not to mention D1 was trash.

With Plurality voting system, wouldn't even a single vote result in a lynch? Does a formal -skip vote count towards the plurality count (to prevent scum from a last-minute vote at EoD to lynch someone)?

[Light_Yagami]

Just to point it out, Holiday Angel has no need to survive for their win condition. If anyone is the Holiday Angel I would advocate for you to reveal. In doing so you could leverage cooperating with town to keep your target alive when it becomes necessary.

I will also mention that because the setup leans in scums favor with 'soft night-peeks', a large non-town pool, scum possessing many ability's to manipulate flips, and towns general lack of mechanical information it would make a lot of sense for that neutral to be town sided. In a word- town can loose majority with just 2 bad lynches.

All that said- Holiday Angel the town pretty much needs you and can not afford to lynch you. Revealing yourself will put you in a stronger position to achieve your win condition while risking nothing even if town players go full derp lynch happy.

Okay..

[Light_Yagami]

-vote no lynch

D1 9/5
D2 8/5 with 1 nk giving 38.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town
D3 6/5 if bad N2 lynch and nk giving 45.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town

So a no lynch D1 extends the worst case situation from N2 maj loss to a N3 while statistically in favor of ensuring a D4 for the town. I didn't completely game it out but I believe this is just optimal play and the setup says nothing against no-lynches.

Not to mention D1 was trash.

I Do A Agree That Day 1 No Lynch Is Best For Town.. Because It Keeps And Extra Town Alive In The Advent We Mislynch..

[Light_Yagami]

-vote skip

[Light_Yagami]

@Helz U Need To Vote Skip For It To Work..

[Light_Yagami]

With Plurality voting system, wouldn't even a single vote result in a lynch? Does a formal -skip vote count towards the plurality count (to prevent scum from a last-minute vote at EoD to lynch someone)?

@Frinckles

[Helz]

With Plurality voting system, wouldn't even a single vote result in a lynch? Does a formal -skip vote count towards the plurality count (to prevent scum from a last-minute vote at EoD to lynch someone)?

A vote to skip is not an abstain imo. Will have to hear what the host says on the matter though.

-vote Skip

[Frinckles]

I'll ask Aivion to comment on that when she's available.

[Light_Yagami]

I'll ask Aivion to comment on that when she's available.

But Your Here Now And EOD Is In What IDK 28 Minutes?

[Frinckles]

But Your Here Now And EOD Is In What IDK 28 Minutes?

Oh snap that timer confused me. Hold on.

[Frinckles]

The answer is yes. That's how we usually do it.

[Helz]

Right now its set to RNG between Mike and Skip day.

[Light_Yagami]

A vote to skip is not an abstain imo. Will have to hear what the host says on the matter though.

-vote Skip

Skipping Is The Only Way That Plan Of Yours Works

[Frinckles]

If I wasn't clear, a vote to skip is not an abstain.

[Mike]

With Plurality voting system, wouldn't even a single vote result in a lynch? Does a formal -skip vote count towards the plurality count (to prevent scum from a last-minute vote at EoD to lynch someone)?

No becuse the no vote or skip vote would win.

[Mike]

-vote no lynch

D1 9/5
D2 8/5 with 1 nk giving 38.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town
D3 6/5 if bad N2 lynch and nk giving 45.5% random lynch chance to hit non-town

So a no lynch D1 extends the worst case situation from N2 maj loss to a N3 while statistically in favor of ensuring a D4 for the town. I didn't completely game it out but I believe this is just optimal play and the setup says nothing against no-lynches.

Not to mention D1 was trash.

I do like the logic in this.

-vote Skip

[Mike]

Right now its set to RNG between Mike and Skip day.

Interesting the two who are voting me. I am going to record this vote count in case I die in the night

Skip Day (3 [L-5]):
Helz, Mike, Light_Yagami
Light_Yagami (1 [L-7]):
Varcron
Helz (1 [L-7]):
blinkskater
Oberon (1 [L-7]):
Numbertwo
bakermir (1 [L-7]):
PQRnHack
Mike (2 [L-6]):
FrostByte, Marshmallow Marshall
SuperJack (2 [L-6]):
Auwt, Oberon

[Mike]

Let’s see if the mafia think I am or tonight lol. Am I or am I baiting as VT? Well mafia you be will have to kill me tonight to find out

@Finckles there are flips in this setup correct?

[Frinckles]

Yup.

[Frinckles]

Lock

[Frinckles]

The day has ended. Nobody was lynched.

Night One

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

Remember to submit your night actions.

[Frinckles]

Day Two

MM was killed and left no last will. His role was Holiday Patron

• 00

• 00

• 00

• 00

DAYS HOURS MINUTES SECONDS

Caustic's slot has been replaced by Renegade.

★ GLHF ★

7 votes to hammer.

★ ★ - ★ ★

[Frinckles]

Fixing vote counts with holiday magic.

[Light_Yagami]

Welp MMs Dead That Fan Freaking Tastic.. That Ruins My Day A Great Deal..

[bakermir]

rip MM

[Light_Yagami]

-vote NumberTwo

Im Actually Quite Surprised I Wasnt The One Attacked.

[Renegade]

Good evening. I'm still catching up a bit. I guess I have a clean slate since this slot didn't post anything d1 so that is nice.

[Renegade]

@PQRnHack nice to see you here.

[PQRnHack]

@PQRnHack nice to see you here.

Who dis?

[Varcron]

-vote NumberTwo

Im Actually Quite Surprised I Wasnt The One Attacked.

Logic behind this? Don't turn into the situation from Eternal Conflict.

[Varcron]

Good evening. I'm still catching up a bit. I guess I have a clean slate since this slot didn't post anything d1 so that is nice.

GOOOOOOOOOOOFYYYYYYYY

[bakermir]

Good evening. I'm still catching up a bit. I guess I have a clean slate since this slot didn't post anything d1 so that is nice.

hi Rene

[Varcron]

hi Rene

woah bake is here

This is weird having the three stooges in this game.

[bakermir]

woah bake is here

This is weird having the three stooges in this game.

Who do we vote today man

[bakermir]

let's solve this game

[bakermir]

@Frinckles

can Heartbreaker visit another mafia n1?

[Helz]

Whoever got sang to last night should claim that feedback. It risks nothing to them.

[Frinckles]

@Frinckles

can Heartbreaker visit another mafia n1?

They can.

[bakermir]

They can.

nice

[bakermir]

no sanitize on n1 is also interesting. could mean mafia has plans to use it later, indicates a potential actress in the team. I don't think caroler is a threat for mafia when a sleepwalker is alive so they obvious had reasons to hold this action for n1.

IF Heartbreaker visited another mafia then there is no risk of getting in a thunderdome in the event where non-mafia players snitching out their lovers for town wincon.

So if we got no carols then caroler knows someone is TPR/sleepwalker/mafia(non janitor) or MM was receiving it which sucks..

[bakermir]

Also the lack of votes and pressure so far indicates neutrals and mafia don't even need to play the game lol

looking at EoD votes, Mike and SJ were in a two way rand up until some of us pushed for a skip instead. Not sure if this was good or bad move, I feel like we could do much better with 2 flips instead of 1.


Was skip really that good?