S-FM 322: Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021 - Page 9
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  1. ISO #401

  2. ISO #402

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    i only have 2 town reads

    mag u aren't playing to ur town meta so ur not one of them :l
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    President Fielzanks walks up to his stage, preparing his n1 speech. In front of him, his two cronies MM and David stood. In front of him, his immaculately written n1 speech was prepared. 'Gentleman, what is the soul of capitalism?', he asked his small audience. 'Money?', MM guessed. 'Waifus?', David asked. 'No' Fielz replied, disappointed in his trash scumteam .
    Quote Originally Posted by aamirus View Post
    Naz would never forget the Chik-Fil-A Sauce

  3. ISO #403

  4. ISO #404

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    yeah and everyone wants to skip with no lws for some reason lol
    ok lets say cop reveals check
    cop will be blocked (unless their check was exactly consort)

    enter night: check or cop die

    enter day 3 with:
    1 doc
    1 cop/green check
    3 remaining town

    2 mafia

    5 v 2, with no extra mechanical information, and room for 2 misyeets? is my math right
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    President Fielzanks walks up to his stage, preparing his n1 speech. In front of him, his two cronies MM and David stood. In front of him, his immaculately written n1 speech was prepared. 'Gentleman, what is the soul of capitalism?', he asked his small audience. 'Money?', MM guessed. 'Waifus?', David asked. 'No' Fielz replied, disappointed in his trash scumteam .
    Quote Originally Posted by aamirus View Post
    Naz would never forget the Chik-Fil-A Sauce

  5. ISO #405

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by naz View Post
    ok lets say cop reveals check
    cop will be blocked (unless their check was exactly consort)

    enter night: check or cop die

    enter day 3 with:
    1 doc
    1 cop/green check
    3 remaining town

    2 mafia

    5 v 2, with no extra mechanical information, and room for 2 misyeets? is my math right
    ^ this is if we skip

    however, if we yeet today, we have the yeet information + maybe all 4 of those alive +1 extra check from cop?
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    President Fielzanks walks up to his stage, preparing his n1 speech. In front of him, his two cronies MM and David stood. In front of him, his immaculately written n1 speech was prepared. 'Gentleman, what is the soul of capitalism?', he asked his small audience. 'Money?', MM guessed. 'Waifus?', David asked. 'No' Fielz replied, disappointed in his trash scumteam .
    Quote Originally Posted by aamirus View Post
    Naz would never forget the Chik-Fil-A Sauce

  6. ISO #406

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    both plays have advantages; with the skip today and cushion from misyeet, we still get the information from yeeting day 3. but yeeting today can get us confirmed red (hopefully consort -> auto)
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    President Fielzanks walks up to his stage, preparing his n1 speech. In front of him, his two cronies MM and David stood. In front of him, his immaculately written n1 speech was prepared. 'Gentleman, what is the soul of capitalism?', he asked his small audience. 'Money?', MM guessed. 'Waifus?', David asked. 'No' Fielz replied, disappointed in his trash scumteam .
    Quote Originally Posted by aamirus View Post
    Naz would never forget the Chik-Fil-A Sauce

  7. ISO #407

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    There are currently 8 users browsing this thread. (8 members and 0 guests)

    naz*, bakermir+, Frinckles+, Happymeal, Light_Yagami, SuperJack+

    ALL YALL ONLINE BUT NOT SAYING ANYTHING
    its my bedtime now
    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    President Fielzanks walks up to his stage, preparing his n1 speech. In front of him, his two cronies MM and David stood. In front of him, his immaculately written n1 speech was prepared. 'Gentleman, what is the soul of capitalism?', he asked his small audience. 'Money?', MM guessed. 'Waifus?', David asked. 'No' Fielz replied, disappointed in his trash scumteam .
    Quote Originally Posted by aamirus View Post
    Naz would never forget the Chik-Fil-A Sauce

  8. ISO #408

  9. ISO #409

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    You wouldn't know if DM healed you. You self-pres when I said I'd vote you, you ask repeatedly for thought processes but when I asked DM about his you felt the need to respond to it for him with some PR hunting bullshit

    DM+Ozy scum doesn't seem ridiculous

    -vote OzyWho
    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Why?

    I feel like you're purposefully making effort to not contribute anything.
    Switch out if you don't mind to play.
    As it stands, you haven't given much reason to town read you, yet some for the opposite.

    -vote SuperJack


    /Sleep
    I’m thinking Frostbyte/Happy/SuperJack Scum Team of 2/3.

    -vote SuperJack


    Also, I TR Ozy.

  10. ISO #410

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    I dont know if we should press into d3 without our PR roles spilling the beans. the idea of a save and roleblocked cop seems unlikely. Even if the results were abysmal it leaves too much leeway for scum to manipulate how we interpret the results. like if dm died and flipped doc a scum ozy could say "oh well he totally townread me!" Or they could sift through an iso and make up some bullshit about a code etc.

    overall I'd take my chances on atleast one fuckin PR outing. I think the doc save fucked over the power of any cc
    (๑˃̵ᴗ˂̵)ﻭ 레드벨벳 ! ! ٩(♡ε♡ )۶

  11. ISO #411

  12. ISO #412

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    I'm not against PR's claiming.
    Spoiler : Stuff :


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 4 slots confirmed; Town has won if lynch Consort. Otherwise lynch pool is 5 slots and have 4 Lynches available.


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 2 slots confirmed; thats bad for town.


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 3 slots confirmed; Let's assume this is the case for the sake of analysis.


    Day2
    7 vs 2
    5x Citizen
    1x Sheriff
    1x Doctor
    vs 1x Consort
    1x Mafioso
    3 Slots confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 6 slots
    Lynches available = 4
    Correct Lynches required = 2

    Let's assume a mislynch

    Day 3
    5 vs 2
    4x Citizen
    1x Sheriff
    vs 1x Mafioso
    1x Consort
    2 Slots confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 5 slots
    Lynches available = 3
    Correct Lynches required = 2

    Let's assume a mislynch

    Day 4
    3 vs 2
    3x Citizen vs 1x Mafioso
    1x Consort
    1 Slot confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 4 slots
    Correct Lynches required = 2
    Double LYLO

    Let's assume a Correct Lynch

    Day 4
    2 vs 1
    2x Town vs 1x Mafia
    0 Slot confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 3 slots
    Correct Lynches required = 1
    LYLO




    In this scenario:
    Day 2 was 33% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 3 was 40% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 4 was 40% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 5 was 33# to hit a Mafia lynch
    Need to hit twice.

    That's better what you get in your average FM game tbh, in your average game you have 0 mechanically confirmed slots.


    I think it's ok for the Sheriff to do claim.
    I think it's better for the doc to not claim until he or his target are the top lynch target. That way Sheriff can live until the Consort dies.

  13. ISO #413

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Just like previously - when people didn't want to random hammer a slot in RVS votes - they were scum in your eyes.
    Now - when people have any PoE at all - it's because they're obviously scum publically trying to hunt down PR's.

    Your reads man...

    At least you have a thought process unlike half the players here...
    that's not what occurred, but ok replace reality with your version of reality.

  14. ISO #414

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    Go back and read the thread because it's obvious you didn't the first time
    Ok, let me just ISO you and quote every reasoning you have given in the game before this post of yours:
    Spoiler : Frostbyte :

    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    TOO MANY POSTS FOR FRINCKLES, ALWAYS LURKS AS TOWN

    -vote FRINCKLES
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    INCORRECT. DOES NOT COMPUTE.

    YOU LURK AS TOWN 100% OF THE TIME.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    FELT THE NEED TO DEFEND HIS SELF IN RVS. SELF PRESERVATION. FOS. FOS. FOS. SUS SUS SUS.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    Someone can't be scum in 100% of games. Your metagrudge is real, holy shit. I'm living rent free in your head so hard it's hilarious.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    you gotta find some new material. You always say that and you're always objectively wrong lmfao
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    usually skip is ass but in this setup it might be good to not mislynch
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    nah, happy looks like he's putting effort into scumhunting day1 and you're unnecessarily dismissing his work
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    damn the irony here is fucking supurb. you're usually lurky as fuck.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    Again, just because you have a raging hard-on for me doesn't make me scum in literally every game ever. You've given 0 reason to scumread me.



    Sheep bullshit vote but I don't think it's AI because I don't think DM can see far enough past his upturned nose to realize he's wrong.



    I really don't like this post. It's still early in the game and doc should most definitely not out



    Strongly agree.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    @Happymeal you see why I was a dick to DM last game? He does this shit constantly
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    I also think anyone who feels like they have a strong metaread on me is full of shit, just for the record.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    I'm not sure. Now that I reread the setup, there are no last wills allowed. If doc ends up dying town won't know who they saved. That's a potentially confirmed townie gone if doc doesn't out today.

    But if doc DOES out today they definitely die tonight.

    I think if cop got a red check they need to out and then doc can out so we have 4 confirmed town. Lynch between the cit claims or any CCs and it's GG ez

    Not sure what doc should do if cop got a greencheck.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    If cop outs and gives redcheck and doc outs and gives who he saved, we lynch cop's redcheck and end day with 8 people. 7 town and 1 mafia with 3 of those town being confirmed.

    Assuming mafia gets a kill off which seems unlikely given our GOAT doc, we start tomorrow with 6 town and 1 mafia, 2 of those town being confirmed.

    Confirmed town is a huge boon to town.

    But TPR can obviously do what they think is best. These are just suggestions and game theory.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    This is a good point because, again, if doc dies without outing who they saved last night then we lose that information because we don't have last wills in this setup.
    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    Well yeah but look at DM and me, for instance. He's metagrudge tunneled me 3 games in a row. It's gotten him lynched twice and I didn't start the train either time. You don't need to further the stupidity by also tunneling.

    RVS was looking good.
    But past that? Your only interests were in 2 things:
    -Bitching about DM (who isn't even talking to you).
    -Talking about Skip and PR claims.

    That's it. That's literally it. Unless you count in stuff like "people who meta read me are full of shit".

    I'm not sure what you're thinking of when you made this post tbh. I think you're a bit delusion in terms of what were you contributions and ideas in this game. Outside of RVS, it's only mechanical talk about -skip and role claims. The only "read" was bitching about DM. Certainly no reasonings other than "he does this every game!".

    After this post of yours, you've only made 1 post. First post to hold any reasoning behind it. Given the context, looks awfully lot like OMGUS to me.

  15. ISO #415

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    You wouldn't know if DM healed you
    True, I can't. But I can make cleverly biased assumptions.


    Quote Originally Posted by FrostByte View Post
    . You self-pres when I said I'd vote you, you ask repeatedly for thought processes but when I asked DM about his you felt the need to respond to it for him with some PR hunting bullshit

    DM+Ozy scum doesn't seem ridiculous

    -vote OzyWho
    This is fair. And I apologize.
    Except for the "self-pres". I ask you to state your thoughts processes in order to be able to read your slot. I don't even know where this "self-pres" idea could come from. How about we try to be forthcoming and discuss things and elaborate on each other's inquiries? This "You question my reasoning when I don't state it? HOW DARE YOU! YOU "SELF-PRES" ETC. ETC." is bullshit. Just help others understand your thought processes instead of becoming so defensive.

  16. ISO #416

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Magician View Post
    @Ozy
    Can I have your top 3 Scum Reads?
    naz, SJ, Frost.

    naz has not provided any reads and instead prefered to talk about general game mechanics when she came here. By a large, the same goes for Frost. Until I pointed out he lacks reasoning and then he OMGUS'd me...
    I think that for scum - making up reads is harder, and talking about mechanics is good looking busy work.

    SJ, for all intents and purposes, has not given anything that would make me read him as a town and even goes out of his way to not contribute. The problem here is that he is better than that, he could easily make himself be the top town read in the game if he had put the effort into it. But right now - he is in the TWTBAW zone.

    Frost I don't particularly scum read tbh, I think he's just bad. I have faith in Gray's meta read on Frost and after ISO'ing Frost - he did remind a little of his town game in krc. But relatively to everyone else - I trust him less enough to make him #3 in my Scummy list.

    Still waiting for Grayswandir to post a link to the game of Frost that he had in mind when he said this games reminds him of that.

  17. ISO #417

  18. ISO #418

  19. ISO #419

  20. ISO #420

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    SJ, for all intents and purposes, has not given anything that would make me read him as a town and even goes out of his way to not contribute. The problem here is that he is better than that, he could easily make himself be the top town read in the game if he had put the effort into it. But right now - he is in the TWTBAW zone..
    Why do you have the tone that you know I'm town but I'm just being lazy?

    Because that is freskingly accurate.
    Cryptonic made this sig

    Quote Originally Posted by HentaiManOfPeace View Post
    gotchu fam

    Attachment 28016

  21. ISO #421

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Grayswandir View Post
    My town meta being to flipflop violently and call everyone scum?
    I do not always do that, just like I’m not always the top poster, or a huge spammer
    @Grayswandir Please respond to my question in #387 and give the link or name.
    Though, idk if it matters at this point anymore - he plays well similar to his krc game.

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    Why do you have the tone that you know I'm town but I'm just being lazy?

    Because that is freskingly accurate.
    In your A-game, you could be the top townread as either alignment if you wanted to. Idk why you wouldn't do that as scum. Idk why you wouldn't do that as town. Therefore it stands to reason that it's NAI.

    However. Your slot this game is basically TWTBAW this game, and my stance is and always will be to yeet every TWTBAW slot.

    At this point, Gray and Frinckles aren't much better than you but at least they say something.

    Then there's Frost and naz...

    Gosh, I swear, for sure whoever the scums are they've never been in the center of attention in regards to being suspects - how else are brick walls everywhere, apart from Frost?

  22. ISO #422

  23. ISO #423

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by SuperJack View Post
    What is TWTBAW?
    Someone so scummy, that "they can't possibly be a scum".
    Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf

    So many scums have won games for free because of the common mistake to not yeet those TWTBAW slots. It's ridiculous.
    Yeet every TWTBAW or why else play FM imo. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  24. ISO #424

  25. ISO #425

  26. ISO #426

  27. ISO #427

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Grayswandir View Post
    On the first glance, I'm not sure I see the similarity tbh. There he's making reads, making cases, pushing stuff, questioning stuff, everything you could hope for.
    This was his 4th post in that game, lol.
    He has asked some questions this game, but that's as much similarity as I can detect tbh.

    Though there's the thing that he's heavily Tunneled on Oberon that game, and this game you could say he's focused on DM. But that game he's making cases and arguments and pushes left and right.

  28. ISO #428

  29. ISO #429

  30. ISO #430

  31. ISO #431

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    That's how I genuinely see it.
    Show me reality.
    I didn't have a scum read for people not hammering. The guy who didn't hammer was light and he was one of my fucking town dude. Like wtf are you doing this game if you can't even pay attention slightly to what people are saying? That's why i had you (and honestly reading this garbage brings you back to it) as one of my top scum. Mafia aren't trying to understand players in game, they're trying to bury them with bullshit. I put the guy who didn't hammer as one of my town.

    -vote ozzywho
    I am much more confident after reading this that you're mafia aligned.

  32. ISO #432

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    I didn't have a scum read for people not hammering. The guy who didn't hammer was light and he was one of my fucking town dude. Like wtf are you doing this game if you can't even pay attention slightly to what people are saying? That's why i had you (and honestly reading this garbage brings you back to it) as one of my top scum. Mafia aren't trying to understand players in game, they're trying to bury them with bullshit. I put the guy who didn't hammer as one of my town.

    -vote ozzywho
    I am much more confident after reading this that you're mafia aligned.
    Ozywho U Put 1 2 Many Zs In There

  33. ISO #433

  34. ISO #434

  35. ISO #435

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    @Happymeal Thank you for correcting me. Though I again criticize your reads, when you now have someone as your "top scum read" on the basis of a possible misunderstanding - when there are 5 slots who don't even attempt to game solve. That's ludicrous.
    At the end of the day - I didn't even scumread you in my criticisms of your reads, and I again criticize your assumption that I'm "scumpainting you" when I straight out say that I think your're town.
    What type of game do you think we are playing? Discourse is an essential part of game solving. How about you try to find wolves instead of OMGUS'ing someone for giving their viewpoints on your reads, and why they think they are bad.


    ~~


    Regardless though. I want to see how badly mistaken I was about your reads in order to be objective, so let me go through them. Please correct me again on anything you see false:

    Spoiler : :

    First, let's address your one and only objection to my criticisms of your reads:
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    I didn't have a scum read for people not hammering. The guy who didn't hammer was light and he was one of my fucking town dude.
    I was,Right / Wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    - hard to tell if light is enjoying himself because he is mafia or not. I'm leaning town.



    - should have honestly and see what happened. I think this has partner equity btw. I also don't think if he flips town it makes light town btw.



    Btw I think that Gray's posts have very little partner equity and have much higher town indication if naz flips town.
    I was 3:1 Wrong

    ~~


    However, let's address my other criticisms of your reads too while at it:


    ~~


    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    SJ does a RVS vote
    "Town points. Don't need to explain my read."
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    - early town points IMO. Don't need to explain the read, but it's similar to tactics I use and other players use as town etc.

    ~~


    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Random slot gets almost hammered at RVS
    "Must be scum"
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    counter this with literally people randomly voted for you and you went with it and memed it. Mafia leaning IMO

    ~~


    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    First person to give any read or idea to speak of
    "scum lean IMO"
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    mafia leaning post IMO

    ~~

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Now - when people have any PoE at all - it's because they're obviously scum publically trying to hunt down PR's.
    Quote Originally Posted by Happymeal View Post
    here's the issue Frost that I started thinking of as I came back home:

    think about it this way. They've already narrowed the pool significantly as to who isn't the medic.

    The know I'm not a PR at all because I've claimed it.

    They roleblocked someone (hopefully they weren't dumb enough to roleblock me . I mean I literally claimed not PR yesterday only bad mafia would have roleblocked me)

    and they also didn't get a kill.

    What does that mean?

    They've already narrowed down the pool of medic players by 2/3 at the very least.

    That means the medic pool is small enough they have a very large chance of targeted the medic.

    With this information, I really don't know how PRs should progress in this game.


    First of all, I guarantee you that scum are more careful in what I say than town.
    Secondly, I'd have no reason to be one of only 4 slots in this game to attempt to game solve if I was scum
    Thirdly, don't say that someone is "scumpainting you" when they make a point telling why they think you're town.
    Fourthly, this is a social game. Discourse is part of it. You look at this game state and figure to scumread someone who gave his views on your reads and misinterpret 1 of them? 1? Is that what you're basing your "top scumread" on? This is worse than OMGUS because I didn't even say I scumread you, like wtf, just how insecure are you?

  36. ISO #436

  37. ISO #437

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Grayswandir View Post
    I have no idea how SuperJack is TWBTAW here, he is literally trying to
    solve the game and scumpainting ppl. That’s exactly what town is supposed to do. Trying to ‘get townread’ is not town’s primary objectibe but rather finding wolves is.
    Really? Where? Show me. Because I only noticed him going out of his way to not contribute D2. While D1 I don't remember him having reads or opinions other than "wants to skip, doesnt want to skip".

    It would suck to be wrong about SJ, care to prove your point by quotes?

  38. ISO #438

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Gray, btw. I need to know what similarities you saw for Frost, between this game and the game you linked. That was your basis your meta read on him, yet I saw very little in terms of similarities between the plays in the games.
    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    On the first glance, I'm not sure I see the similarity tbh. There he's making reads, making cases, pushing stuff, questioning stuff, everything you could hope for.
    This was his 4th post in that game, lol.
    He has asked some questions this game, but that's as much similarity as I can detect tbh.

    Though there's the thing that he's heavily Tunneled on Oberon that game, and this game you could say he's focused on DM. But that game he's making cases and arguments and pushes left and right.

  39. ISO #439

  40. ISO #440

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Grayswandir View Post
    Frost is much more abrasive as town. He was pretty abrasive at the start of today so he’s town.
    Check the last game he played as scum and then check this one. The only person he was abrasive towards was DarkMagician and that’s because they hate each other.
    Check Frost's ISO this game.
    Few posts in RVS stage are "abrasive", and also contain reads. After that - it's well of what you describe him to be in his scum game.

    That's him 90% of this game though.

  41. ISO #441

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Check Frost's ISO this game.
    Few posts in RVS stage are "abrasive", and also contain reads. After that - it's well of what you describe him to be in his scum game.

    That's him 90% of this game though.
    nvm, he was much different in Scum Town, thats apparent on the first glance.
    And this game reminds me of his krc game.

    I agree with your town mete read on him.

  42. ISO #442

  43. ISO #443

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I'm not against PR's claiming.
    Spoiler : Stuff :


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 4 slots confirmed; Town has won if lynch Consort. Otherwise lynch pool is 5 slots and have 4 Lynches available.


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 2 slots confirmed; thats bad for town.


    • If Doc+Sheriff claim, and there's 3 slots confirmed; Let's assume this is the case for the sake of analysis.


    Day2
    7 vs 2
    5x Citizen
    1x Sheriff
    1x Doctor
    vs 1x Consort
    1x Mafioso
    3 Slots confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 6 slots
    Lynches available = 4
    Correct Lynches required = 2

    Let's assume a mislynch

    Day 3
    5 vs 2
    4x Citizen
    1x Sheriff
    vs 1x Mafioso
    1x Consort
    2 Slots confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 5 slots
    Lynches available = 3
    Correct Lynches required = 2

    Let's assume a mislynch

    Day 4
    3 vs 2
    3x Citizen vs 1x Mafioso
    1x Consort
    1 Slot confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 4 slots
    Correct Lynches required = 2
    Double LYLO

    Let's assume a Correct Lynch

    Day 4
    2 vs 1
    2x Town vs 1x Mafia
    0 Slot confirmed
    Lynch Pool = 3 slots
    Correct Lynches required = 1
    LYLO




    In this scenario:
    Day 2 was 33% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 3 was 40% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 4 was 40% to hit a Mafia lynch
    Day 5 was 33# to hit a Mafia lynch
    Need to hit twice.

    That's better what you get in your average FM game tbh, in your average game you have 0 mechanically confirmed slots.


    I think it's ok for the Sheriff to do claim.
    I think it's better for the doc to not claim until he or his target are the top lynch target. That way Sheriff can live until the Consort dies.
    Seriously guys.
    Sheriff should claim.
    Like Town is most likely to have almost 100% mechanically won if he happens to confirm a different slot than the Doctor.
    Moreover - the analysis under the spoiler tag were assuming both PR's claim, and hence doc dies N2 + they only confirm 3 slots, when 4 is very likely.

    This isn't greedy, to not claim. It's just straight-up bad probability wise.

  44. ISO #444

  45. ISO #445

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by Grayswandir View Post
    I just realized, if the sheriff claims, he almost certainly makes it past tonight, unless we lynch the doctor today,
    In which case, let’s just skip. I now see why people wanted to skip.
    I view the Sheriff not claiming close to a gamethrow.
    I'm considering to skip if Sheriff doesn't claim - just to not lose the PR's.
    Like, straight up, it's possible to reduce the lynch pool to 5 slots with 4 lynches available. Worse case, 6 slots with 4 lynches availalbe + living hidden doctor to save the Sheriff.

  46. ISO #446

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I view the Sheriff not claiming close to a gamethrow.
    I'm considering to skip if Sheriff doesn't claim - just to not lose the PR's.
    Like, straight up, it's possible to reduce the lynch pool to 5 slots with 4 lynches available. Worse case, 6 slots with 4 lynches availalbe + living hidden doctor to save the Sheriff.
    nvm it cant be 6 (today) if doc stays hidden, but what are the odds of that 1 doc confirmed slot to get lynched...

  47. ISO #447

  48. ISO #448

  49. ISO #449

    Re: S-FM Simple Forum Mafia - WINTER 2021

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    I view the Sheriff not claiming close to a gamethrow.
    I'm considering to skip if Sheriff doesn't claim - just to not lose the PR's.
    Like, straight up, it's possible to reduce the lynch pool to 5 slots with 4 lynches available. Worse case, 6 slots with 4 lynches availalbe + living hidden doctor to save the Sheriff.
    I Dont Think It Would Be Game Throwing.. I Think It Keeps The Odds Of Hitting Sheriff The Same Odds As Yesterday.. Asking For Sheriff To Flat Out Reveal Is Asking For Sheriff To Be Role Blocked/Attacked.. Quite Frankly There Is Also The Possibility That Sheriff Was RBd Last Night.

  50. ISO #450

 

 

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