Challenge: FM Formula
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  1. #1

    Challenge: FM Formula

    Let's imagine this to be a basic FM formula that determines the outcome of the game:


    ( Tt + Th ) - ( St + Sh ) = Outcome
    Where

    Tt = Towns ability to Appear Town.
    Th = Towns ability to Scum Hunt.
    St = Scums ability to Appear Town.
    Sh = Scums ability to derail Scum Hunts.


    The challenge is to make a different formula. A formula that is as complex as possible, with lots of variables presumably.



    And a probability-based question:
    Is this statement true?
    "adding an odd player always increases the mafia winning-chance"
    Like, in a normal FM setup, when you have 12 player slots - adding 1 citizen would always crease the mafia odds of winning?
    It's random statement found here. I understand none of it, but I can read a text and found such a sentence in it.

  2. #2

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Trying to quantify Mafia is very hard. The social element adds a ton of instability to any calculations you'd try to make.

    I do not understand that statement at all. It's very counter-intuitive, and the logic behind it is beyond me, if it exists.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  3. #3

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Yeah... I mean I guess it's just like a normal game with the elements you provided for the code. Like if there's too many town sided elements to the formula and not enough scum then the scum lose and vica versa.

    It's like, my only guess as to what the point of this is xD

    Everybody is equally weak on the inside, just that some present their ruins as new castles and become kings –
    Deep into that darkness peering, long I stood there, wondering, fearing, doubting, dreaming dreams no mortal ever dared to dream before.
    If your dear heart is wounded, my wild heart bleeds with yours.

  4. #4

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Trying to quantify Mafia is very hard. The social element adds a ton of instability to any calculations you'd try to make.

    I do not understand that statement at all. It's very counter-intuitive, and the logic behind it is beyond me, if it exists.
    It's based on the fact the probability of mislynching technically goes up if there are more towns to mislynch from without additional lynches, which happens if there are say, 5 towns and 3 scums rather than 4 towns and 3 scums. (5/8 mislynch chance vs 4/7 mislynch chance supposedly)

    But it's a very innaccurate way of modelling the outcome of games, because I don't know many ppl who would prefer to play as town from a position with 5 towns and 3 scums rather than 4 towns and 3 scums. This perverse result is caused by simply assuming every person has an equal chance of getting lynched irrespective of game-state. A simple way to improve the model may be to assign each person a randomly selected list of preferred lynches, then keep running AV until a majority winner is found (and assume scums are unlikely to "prefer" to lynch their own, especially at or near LYLO). I'd argue that process comes somewhat closer to representing how a "simple" game is more likely to play out, but obviously that has a lot of flaws too. It would probably make games appear more scum-sided than they really are.

    p;edit many people who wouldn't prefer to play from a position with 5 towns and 3 scums
    Last edited by yzb25; January 7th, 2021 at 03:57 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  5. #5

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    It's based on the fact the probability of mislynching technically goes up if there are more towns to mislynch from without additional lynches, which happens if there are say, 5 towns and 3 scums rather than 4 towns and 3 scums. (5/8 mislynch chance vs 4/7 mislynch chance supposedly)

    But it's a very innaccurate way of modelling the outcome of games, because I don't know many ppl who would prefer to play as town from a position with 5 towns and 3 scums rather than 4 towns and 3 scums. This perverse result is caused by simply assuming every person has an equal chance of getting lynched irrespective of game-state. A simple way to improve the model may be to assign each person a randomly selected list of preferred lynches, then keep running AV until a majority winner is found (and assume scums are unlikely to "prefer" to lynch their own, especially at or near LYLO). I'd argue that process comes somewhat closer to representing how a "simple" game is more likely to play out, but obviously that has a lot of flaws too. It would probably make games appear more scum-sided than they really are.
    hmm, this looks more serious than I assumed. Maybe they didn't do what I said. I'll give it a read then get back to you ^^.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  6. #6

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    It is kind of what I said, at least conceptually. The thing is, this paper actually assumes the town still has a chance of winning when there's 50% mafia and 50% town. It simply assumes there is a 50/50 chance of a mafia getting lynched at that phase. If there is only 1 town and 1 mafia, the paper assumes the winner is determined by a coinflip rather than simply handing mafia the tie-winner.

    That's why the probability of a mafia win goes up for odd numbers rather than even numbers. In this paper, the even numbers allow for 3 mafia 3 town, which is better odds than 3 mafia 4 town. If we assume mafia automatically wins ties, then even numbers become worse again like you'd expect.

    p;edit this paper is really goofy. When there is a single mafia and 100s of town, the probability that the single mafia wins a game with 2n players becomes asymptotically close to an equation of n with pi in it. 2n = root(2/n*pi) (roughly). For example - for 2000 players, the probability of mafia victory is extremely close to root(2/(1000*pi))
    Last edited by yzb25; January 7th, 2021 at 03:52 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  7. #7

  8. #8

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    You can’t objectify a game that is intentionally subjective.
    Statistics and probabilities can to some extent, and that's what the article seems to be about, according to what yzb is saying. However, it's only an approximation, as per the very nature of statistics and probabilities. For example, you can't say that 1 scum vs 1000 town doesn't get the scum winrate asymptotically close to 0, and although that doesn't mean you can measure it in a manner that will precisely correspond to reality, it still has some obvious correlation to it.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  9. #9

  10. #10

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by Zedus View Post
    Well, my corona is over, I am survived and I am back.
    As for formula, it's simple for this forum. Here it is:
    Scum wins.
    ?! welcome back among the living, I wasn't aware you had the Black Death.

    Also, that's completely false town has won a rather big share of games recently.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  11. #11

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    ?! welcome back among the living, I wasn't aware you had the Black Death.
    Ye, I got a portion

    Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
    Also, that's completely false town has won a rather big share of games recently.
    That's why I was in hospital and you had no scums
    I agree with plan C.

    Even if game is already over, I am still agree, why not?

  12. #12

  13. #13

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by Zedus View Post
    Oh, I should say that's BECAUSE I was in hospital and you had no scums
    Uh oh. Can you get COVID again pls? :P

    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  14. #14

    Re: Challenge: FM Formula

    Quote Originally Posted by OzyWho View Post
    Let's imagine this to be a basic FM formula that determines the outcome of the game:


    ( Tt + Th ) - ( St + Sh ) = Outcome
    Where

    Tt = Towns ability to Appear Town.
    Th = Towns ability to Scum Hunt.
    St = Scums ability to Appear Town.
    Sh = Scums ability to derail Scum Hunts.


    The challenge is to make a different formula. A formula that is as complex as possible, with lots of variables presumably.



    And a probability-based question:
    Is this statement true?
    "adding an odd player always increases the mafia winning-chance"
    Like, in a normal FM setup, when you have 12 player slots - adding 1 citizen would always crease the mafia odds of winning?
    It's random statement found here. I understand none of it, but I can read a text and found such a sentence in it.
    Gotta add in towns ability to push their reads, Scums ability to push their reads, Scums ability to manipulate the town, Both sides understanding of strategy, and somehow quantify the value of each of these attributes in ratio to etch other.

    If thats something you want to mess with I would reach out to Lissa from MU. They have a very well set up database up there and she has played with the figures quite a bit. Its not uncommon for me to come up with a concept and reach out to her just for her to be like 'Oh yeah, I already did that a few years back' although I have absolutely no idea how you could really quantify those attributes. The formula you posted you could though by tracking vote patterns and lynch patterns.
    What does not kill you makes you feel stupid when you wish it would have
    It only makes you stronger if you choose to not be a victim

  15. #15

 

 

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