Cognitive bias as a tell
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  1. #1

    Cognitive bias as a tell

    My most recent focus on mafia tells deals with Cognitive bias and very specifically the differences in how it is handled idiosyncratically. I figure on a very basic level that bias is what we hunt for between alignments and how its handled is very telling.

    Without rambling on about the mental gymnastics going on in my head on the subject I am curious if anyone has thoughts on the subject.
    What does not kill you makes you feel stupid when you wish it would have
    It only makes you stronger if you choose to not be a victim

  2. #2

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    This might be a stupid question to ask but what exactly is a cognitive bias?
    Quote Originally Posted by Huey The Long View Post
    Naz will die, i can promise you this, i visited there home, i shared the wealth, placed my book on their nightstand and said every man a king 3 times so they will die from my glorious contagion of my political program
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    You sure you dont want to lynch Voss again? he may flip scum this time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Distorted View Post
    mags my highest townread and i think hes scum.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Magician View Post
    Yeah I donít read or care to that much. I just vote correctly and thatís that.

  3. #3

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but in other words, you're asking if people have thoughts on the functioning of human reasonings... which is a large and unspecific question, to say the least. Perhaps this would need to be more specific.
    Spoiler : Quotes :
    Quote Originally Posted by S-FM Hey peter View Post
    There are two wolves inside you. One is addicted to crack. The other one is also addicted to crack. You are addicted to crack.
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16 View Post
    MM IS AN ANTI-VAXXER
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaCucho View Post
    Mallow are you really an anti vaxxer
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    God is a goofy loser.

  4. #4

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    This might be a stupid question to ask but what exactly is a cognitive bias?
    BiasesPosterHigherResolution.jpg

    Edit: the list on Wiki is much larger. Would be interesting to see someone filter them by relevance to Mafia. Though the Wiki list has the same story as Logical Fallacies for me - you learn your fallacies but then you go to wiki and see a list of so many you don't even recognize

    Edit2: In my opinion, the term "Cognitive Bias" is a perverse one due to the "Cognitive" part being redundant. It's all just "Biases" with no distinction made between emotional and logical. The "Cognitive" part (imo) is only there to emphasize on the fact that the biases interfere with / hinder rational thoughts. How are "biases that hinder your rational thoughts" relevant to tells in Mafia? You got me there, idk..
    Last edited by OzyWho; December 22nd, 2020 at 03:34 AM.

  5. #5

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    As Scum: it's hard to imagine what is and isn't obvious to the town. As such, I can unnecessarily/preemptively bus my Scum mates. @Oberon experienced this first hand if he can remember something from so long ago.

    As Town: it's easy for me to get invested in a theory (presumably due to me actually doing a lot of investment of time and energy in it). You might as well call be stubborn who's incapable of changing his mind. Confirmation bias is strong in my town for this reason also.

    Offtopic, but slightly on topic: I am more town read as scum and scumread as town because people can have better conversations with me when I'm scum due to me understanding where they're coming from while as town I see possible evil intent behind every action.

  6. #6

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    Well, I looked up the definition. I think some examples of it might be when someone joins a cult with a doomsday date and the date passes and they continue to make rationalizations for why the cult is correct even as it continues to make incorrect predictions. Or someone who doesn't want to believe they're being cheated on repeatedly ignoring evidence. Basically, systematically dismissing evidence that clashes with a narrative in your head.

    I think the most common example of that is with someone's own skill. When they get a bunch of reads wrong, rather than acknowledging their reads aren't as right as much as they'd like to think, they start pulling out excuses or blaming others, rather than just adapting their reads or accepting the limitations of their own judgement. Humility is rly important in this game, as well as acknowledging when a player is better than you or knows better.

    Sometimes certain ideas about the game can become community gospel, and players who fail to respect that gospel or have a style that is scummy according to the gospel just get lynched over and over, game after game. That was definitely the case with secondpassing a few years ago imo, who had unconventional thought processes which the community stubbornly refused to adapt to or accept.

    That's not to say that all ppl who get mislynched over and over fall into that category. Some players think they're that, but are in fact probably exhibiting cognitive bias themselves ^^.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

  7. #7

    Re: Cognitive bias as a tell

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Some players think they're that, but are in fact probably exhibiting cognitive bias themselves ^^.
    And to make sure this isn't interpreted as some glib jab, I should mention it's been a long time since I saw a player that actually qualified for what I'm describing at the end there. The prior points are a lot more common.

    p;edit, I just realized this is specifically about how cognitive bias may serve you in reading others. Apparently I can't read myself! I'm sorry for my semi-irrelevant posts XD
    Last edited by yzb25; December 22nd, 2020 at 12:30 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Blinkstorteddd02 View Post
    naz, he's claiming to have been at your house last night and infected you. I know u were drunk but PLEASE try as hard as you can to remember... That burning you felt the next morning when you went pee was from me, not him.

 

 

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