S-FM 319: ILLUMINΔTI (Ladder) 9P

[MartinGG99]

I would be VERY interested in the result of your N1 check. Of course it's not going to solve the game, but it could give a lot of info:

Did the person you check turn up Illuminati and get night killed at the same time? Probably no Illuminati this game

Did the person you check turn up not Illuminati and they claim Mayor? You've just confirmed we're in setup D.

Did the person you check turn up not Illuminati and they claim Mason? There's probably not an Illuminati, and we're in setup A/C.

Did someone turn up Illuminati, we didn't yeet them, and they didn't die the following night? They're probably not mafia because Mafia would likely kill an Illuminati-seeming partner.

There are *many* ways your information could be useful, even if it isn't proof.

Okay, fine.

I'll check someone (or if you would prefer. someone of your choice).

I'm going to recant N2 though because I would like to resolve my recant before I get shot by someone in setups A/D and they go "Hey CLEARLY we're in setups B/C/E/F!!!!" and take advantage of that.

[Renegade]

-vote Frinckles

Frinckles where are you.

[MattZed]

I suppose, in your view, that is somewhat similar.

But in that case the arsonist is quite aware of their win condition.

I am not, nor will I ever be. Heck, the conspiracy theorist is never sure of much of anything.

Let's say I never recant and we're in the A/D setups.

If I start saying "Hey, X towny player was checked as illuminati!"

Then I'm doing terrible things for the town, and that's more anti-town than I think my recant ever could be.

Not to mention, I will lose as well since I need to recant at some point in the A/D setups.

Or I get lynched because apparently people think that unless your win condition matches exactly as the town's, then that for some reason must mean my win condition mandates them losing.

NO ONE here wants to yeet you pre-recant. If we're in setup A/D, then you can wait until AT LEAST Night 3 to safely recant. In those setups, worst case is two misyeets in a row, 2 kills on town, making D3 a 2v2v1. If you vote to skip or vote to yeet a Mafia, the game isn't over and you get your N3 to recant. You can then either survive to win or maybe get yeeted by Mafia. And that's assuming we misyeet twice. If we catch a mafia D1 or D2, you have a LOT more chances to decide if you'll recant.

[MattZed]

-vote Frinckles

Frinckles where are you.

Your thoughts on DM. Now.

[Frinckles]

-vote Frinckles

Frinckles where are you.

I was sleeping

[MattZed]

I was sleeping

Oh, you're actually here. A response to the post where I pinged you would be appreciated.

[Frinckles]

Oh, you're actually here. A response to the post where I pinged you would be appreciated.

Sure lemme check

[Frinckles]

I'm heading off to bed. In the meantime:
@Frinckles , do you actually think calling me a TPR is scummy? I don't need a big explanation, just a yes or a no.

no

[Renegade]

Your thoughts on DM. Now.

I think he is sketchy. He seems to have already made up his mind on me, MM, and MZ based on less than 5 pages of content.

Too rigid, does that mean he is pushing an agenda? Open Wolfing? I don't know yet.

As a corollary, I'm not sure if he is goofy tunneling, but the lack of an open mind is concerning to me. He's done a strange course correction from his intro post to now. I think his slot will resolve quickly after d1 though so I'm not sure he is the best lynch for today.

[MattZed]

Frinckles is looking a little better in my book.

I'm off for a few hours. Ping me if you need me, but I'm *very* serious about my scumread on DM. (and to a lesser extent, Mesk)

[Auwt]

@Auwt , what are your reads right now? You've given a lot of prods, but no accusations yet. If you don't have any *strong* reads right now, I'm totally fine just hearing your gutreads/leans.

To be honest I'm not certain about my reads at all.
If I had to make a quick list it would look like this :

yzb - Town mindset imo
DM - I receive town vibes from him, not too sure though.
Renegade - I agree with some of his post, but not all of them.
Frinckles -
Martin - Should reconsider his night action.
MattZed - The MM/MattZed situation is a bit touchy.
MM - The MM/MattZed situation is a bit touchy.
Mesk - Shaky entrance (as always?). I prefer to be wary of it.

As always this is a kind of draft, so don't consider it to be my whole D1 base.

[MartinGG99]

Martin - Should reconsider his night action.

Which one are you referring to?

The first one or the more recent one?

I'm recanting n1

I'll check someone (or if you would prefer. someone of your choice).

[Frinckles]

Which one are you referring to?

The first one or the more recent one?

Why don't you want to shoot?

[Frinckles]

Unless I'm not understanding something shooting prior to a check seems optimal no?

[Frinckles]

At least from your point of view. Obviously you swing the setup someway.

[Frinckles]

In fact at every stage of the game you are the most dangerous role to every other alignment. If I were you I'd use that to my advantage.

[MartinGG99]

Why don't you want to shoot?

I don't see a point in shooting someone.

That's the general gist of it.

From a pure probability perspective, if I shoot n1 (presuming no yeet) then I have a 1/4th chance of hitting a mafia on A/D

And for B/C/E/F I have 3/8 chance of hitting an illuminati....who don't flip as illuminati. Which I guess it makes it flipless but for the sake of those viewing the setup as A/D then me hitting a town isn't exactly a good thing.

Also, if I do hit a mafia in B/C/E/F there will no longer be a way to confirm if the one still alive is illuminati or not unless we all believe it is B/C/E/F and I check them, because the non-illuminati mafia can night-kill the illuminati mafia.

[Frinckles]

I don't see a point in shooting someone.

That's the general gist of it.

From a pure probability perspective, if I shoot n1 (presuming no yeet) then I have a 1/4th chance of hitting a mafia on A/D

And for B/C/E/F I have 3/8 chance of hitting an illuminati....who don't flip as illuminati. Which I guess it makes it flipless but for the sake of those viewing the setup as A/D then me hitting a town isn't exactly a good thing.

Also, if I do hit a mafia in B/C/E/F there will no longer be a way to confirm if the one still alive is illuminati or not unless we all believe it is B/C/E/F and I check them, because the non-illuminati mafia can night-kill the illuminati mafia.

I understand the odds are just as shitty as any other vigilante shot but your intentions seem pro town while your actions seem to play against your own alignment. We really have no incentive to keep you alive besides memes at that point and unfortunately I don't like memes in ladder.

Remove a scummy player from the game helps town. All the more if you get a concensus on who to shoot.

[Frinckles]

Hell I wouldn't even be mad if you wanted to shoot me. But if your intentions seem pro town, I'd expect your to be scumhunting and have formulated some reads. Then shooting the scummiest makes sense.

[Mesk514]

Mesk also gets a townread, at least for now. She built a career on dodging any and all pressure in the early game. If she's here contributing, it's because she wants to - not because the twentieth early-game attempt to "pressure vote" her is magically working. She seemed genuinely salty about getting voted so fast, because now she thinks all her future contributions will be stained with a "mesk is only contributing because she was pushed to" - the early pressure vote denied her any opportunity to "prove herself", effectively. Also, this is my first game with mesk in years, but I like the new mesk a lot more. It's a lot more enjoyable to play with, tbh.

daddddddddddddddddddddy, hubba hubba. lewdy left and raunchy right miss you

[Renegade]

I'm very underwhelmed by Martin this game.

Takes a fun role, powerful role, open claims d1, keeps looking for ways to lose lmao.

Oh well.

[Mesk514]

Remove a scummy player from the game helps town. All the more if you get a concensus on who to shoot.

^ this. @whoever asked me why time should be spent on the neut

[MartinGG99]

I understand the odds are just as shitty as any other vigilante shot but your intentions seem pro town while your actions seem to play against your own alignment. We really have no incentive to keep you alive besides memes at that point and unfortunately I don't like memes in ladder.

Remove a scummy player from the game helps town. All the more if you get a concensus on who to shoot.

Odds aren't as crap if I were vig since they only get to shoot n2 and beyond and they know that they themselves are town.

If I'm going to shoot though it probably would be on n2 and I would check n1.

I would hesitate to shoot on n1 because of my reasons and that Matt asked me to check on n1.

I think it may be feasible for me to

n1 check
n2 shoot
n3 recant

if its A/D

And if its B/C/E/F then I suppose that delay doesn't really matter since I need to not recant in those setups.

[Frinckles]

I'm very underwhelmed by Martin this game.

Takes a fun role, powerful role, open claims d1, keeps looking for ways to lose lmao.

Oh well.

Yeah I'd go batshit crazy with that role.

[Auwt]

Which one are you referring to?

The first one or the more recent one?

I didn't see the recent one, sorry.
I was referring to the first one.

[MartinGG99]

I'm very underwhelmed by Martin this game.

Takes a fun role, powerful role, open claims d1, keeps looking for ways to lose lmao.

Oh well.

You consider having an inability to know one's own win condition as fun?

[Frinckles]

Odds aren't as crap if I were vig since they only get to shoot n2 and beyond and they know that they themselves are town.

If I'm going to shoot though it probably would be on n2 and I would check n1.

I would hesitate to shoot on n1 because of my reasons and that Matt asked me to check on n1.

I think it may be feasible for me to

n1 check
n2 shoot
n3 recant

if its A/D

And if its B/C/E/F then I suppose that delay doesn't really matter since I need to not recant in those setups.

Its more dangerous for you to use your gun after n1. Is it not?

[Renegade]

You consider having an inability to know one's own win condition as fun?

I take it you weren't in DeathWorlds Asylum game.

[Frinckles]

You consider having an inability to know one's own win condition as fun?

Shooting someone sounds fun.

[MartinGG99]

Its more dangerous for you to use your gun after n1. Is it not?

How so?

I mean, I already get notified if I lose my auto-vest. If I lose my vest on N1 then yeah that may change things.

Only problem is that the auto-vest doesn't protect me if a vig + godfather both hit me at the same time on n2, presuming I don't get hit on n1.

[Mesk514]

anyways, i have nothing further to contribute. I find DM's way of attempting to solve the game is more innocent that MM's and MZ's.

I'm at work until 10pm MST

[Frinckles]

Shooting someone sounds fun.

And again, I dont know what is really incentivising us to keep you alive otherwise outside of a non-town cleared slot that could at any point be lying to us.

[MartinGG99]

And again, I dont know what is really incentivising us to keep you alive otherwise outside of a non-town cleared slot that could at any point be lying to us.

Well if you don't find a point in having me around in the first place then why do yall just lynch me day 1?

[MartinGG99]

Well if you don't find a point in having me around in the first place then why don't yall just lynch me day 1?

ebwop

[Frinckles]

And again, I dont know what is really incentivising us to keep you alive otherwise outside of a non-town cleared slot that could at any point be lying to us.

Actually you know what, there's no reason to even deal with your slot. Do whatever tbh. 2/9 people are solved and maybe mesk actually got citizen this game. I'm cool with 3/9.

[Frinckles]

Well if you don't find a point in having me around in the first place then why do yall just lynch me day 1?

No you're right. Your path to victory is your own. Goodluck with it.

[Mesk514]

Actually you know what, there's no reason to even deal with your slot.

I disagree with this, but from what i gather if he does what h e claims he will, he will lose anyways? question is, will he really

[yzb25]

The real plot twist would be another magoroth moment where he reveals he just claimed 3p to "bait out" the actual 3p and took it too far XD

[MartinGG99]

The real plot twist would be another magoroth moment where he reveals he just claimed 3p to "bait out" the actual 3p and took it too far XD

What are your opinions on Frinckles and the idea of me shooting someone?

[MartinGG99]

What are your opinions on Frinckles and the idea of me shooting someone?

I mean, you two haven't interacted or even said anything about eachother

Even though now both of yall have talked to me

[MartinGG99]

Except for this and that's it

I'm confused. He isn't cc'd currently. Whats the problem

[Frinckles]

The real plot twist would be another magoroth moment where he reveals he just claimed 3p to "bait out" the actual 3p and took it too far XD

hi yzb how is your day?

[Frinckles]

I'm re-reading people by the way.

[Frinckles]

DM-MZ-MM

[yzb25]

What are your opinions on Frinckles and the idea of me shooting someone?

I have literally no alignment-indicative views of Frinckles' play whatsoever. He was drunk yesterday and now he's just indulging in setup spec.

The shooting idea isn't bad either. Anything that involves actually using your abilities and not dying n1 is an improvement. To be frank, part of the reason your play pisses me off so much is it just feels like it goes against the spirit of the setup.

[yzb25]

hi yzb how is your day?

hi. Just playing catan with some friends rn. My day was p nice!

[Frinckles]

hi. Just playing catan with some friends rn. My day was p nice!

You should totally make a volcano tile. Spices up the game.

[Dark Magician]

Anyway, suffice to say I am v weirded out by how hard DM is getting scumread. Maybe I'm missing smth but it looks like nonsense.

It’s because Matt, MM and Rene are Illuminati

[Dark Magician]

DM-MZ-MM

Your mafia with Rene eh? Probably best to get him tonight as he opposes you.

[yzb25]

You should totally make a volcano tile. Spices up the game.

omfg this sounds like such cheese lmao

We're playing with cities and knights and traders and barbarians (caravan scenario)