to what extent is FM skill subjective?
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  1. ISO #1

    to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    Title. Obviously in all games there's going to be a degree of ambiguity about how you measure the best player (i.e. winrate or wins in major games or tournaments etc.). So, to flesh out the question a little, I think mafia has many more subjective aspects than many other games.

    In certain communities (or even with different ppl in the same community), certain playstyles are going to be more likely to get you positive outcomes. Your personality itself may be perceived as more charismatic in different cultures and net you more influence.

    One player may have a very sophisticated methodology that accurately reads a lot of players. But suppose that methodology proves incapable of ascertaining the alignment of a particular player, whereas another player's much simpler methodology does. How can we rationalize what makes the former player better at "reading" ppl, if we even can?

    I also think that, even though measuring skill in all games is ambiguous, there are many more types of skill one could have in mafia, because the quirks of one's personality and thought process can have many upsides and downsides in many niche situations.

    I could say more, but hopefully that demonstrates some of the directions for conversation. Imo, skill is very subjective. Your skill is to a great degree a function of the people you play with and your relationship with them. Yet, there seems to be a surprising degree of consensus about who the "good players" are, in spite of different ppl's philosophies and approaches to the game, and we view their skill as something that would also at least partially apply outside our community.
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  2. ISO #2

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    Quote Originally Posted by yzb25 View Post
    Obviously in all games there's going to be a degree of ambiguity about how you measure the best player (i.e. winrate or wins in major games or tournaments etc.). So, to flesh out the question a little, I think mafia has many more subjective aspects than many other games.
    Strongly agree. I played competitive Siege for a while and learned that rank doesn't mean shit. You can get a good rank by being on good teams and having people carry you consistently. I think something like the big multi-site Mafia tournament is probably the best way to accurately measure skill but even then the environment of those games could easily lend itself to favoring particular playstyles.

    Part of what I love about Mafia is how complex it is. Logical reasoning is huge but so is the social aspect. You have to read and make logical deductions about individual behavior in a complex and curated social environment. I think there are indicators of a highly skilled player, such as finding the optimal read for yourself and then making other people have that read. You have to logically reason out what the best position for yourself would be and then make other people put you in that position. In Siege you just click heads and win, but in Mafia you have to manipulate other people into seeing you how you want to be seen.

    Accuracy of scumreads is another potential indicator of a skilled player. But saying in daychat "I think x is scum" and then checking the flip is the only real way to measure a player's reads, and that action alone is ideally filtered through how the player believes giving those reads is going to affect the game so it's not particularly accurate. You'd almost have to make players lock in who they think is scum before the beginning of each day to get even a somewhat close idea of who's right.

    But even looking at a bunch of potential indicators of skill isn't an accurate way to know who's better at Mafia. Winrate is largely affected by teammates and accurate scumreads at any given time aren't even necessary to be good at the game. You have to put each player in a vacuum to see the position they were in and see how their reactions to events in game either further their win condition or work against it. That whole process would be subjective as hell.

    I don't think there's a truly accurate way to objectively measure skill in Mafia.
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  3. ISO #3

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    I’m shit at FM and I’m pretty sure I have an above 50% winrate. But I don’t remember most of the game I’ve played.
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  4. ISO #4

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    Skill level is not quantifiable due to the instability of Mafia, which is in turn due to the big social aspect of the game. However, I'd argue it's possible to say that some plays are more skillful than others (since they lead to better odds for the player using them), so if someone cumulates more skillful plays of high enough "skill value" (which, again, isn't quantifiable, but can be compared with other plays to get a relative value) than someone else, I'd say they are more skilled.
    Now, that's all great in theory and hard to apply in reality, but it still means there is an objective skill level that exists, even though it's not a "rating" like you'd get when playing SC2 ladder, for example.

    For some context, SC2 ranks actually matter, and there is a massive difference between the level of the players on each tier (bronze, silver, gold, platinum, diamond, master, grandmaster). I've played from bronze to diamond and with some masters, and it was really noticeable and important. This isn't the case in Mafia; however, some players are definetly scary to play against because they're good, so not everyone is equal.
    Last edited by Marshmallow Marshall; November 29th, 2020 at 09:33 AM.
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    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
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  5. ISO #5

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    The ability to pull off gambits. A player succeeding at every shit strat he tries or a player being told to drop it off after trying one single thing.

    The ability to identify and judge gambits. Reacting appropriately or falling right into it.

    Resilience. Continuing to play a strong game after being called out for mistakes, or flopping like a flounder after stepping on a stone.

    Knowledge about scumtells, both to identify them and to protect oneself from showing them.

    The ability to convince others. Establishing a strong standing in the thread through good, and possibly even few, arguments, or going under as a coasting lurker.

    Activity. Posting 24/7 or struggling with the minimum post count either due to a lack of time or the simple inability to express oneself with words.

    Paying attention. Noticing every detail and using the skills one has at their disposal when possible, or skipping large chunks of posts and forgetting the current gamestate.

    Passive charisma. Having others want one alive for reasons not even game-related, or being a day 1 lynch for a meme.

    Luck and good gut reads. A player sometimes having unexplained sparks and saving the game through them, or a player doing it more often than not and being a massive pain in the ass for everyone else involved.

    All that can be measured to some extent and qualifies as skill imo. How much each aspect individually matters and how they correlate to each other is a more complicated matter. Everyone usually plays differently every game too.

  6. ISO #6

  7. ISO #7

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    I think I got what you’re talking about. I think people usually form imperfect scumreads on people: the core of the read is correct but 20% of the details are missing or wrong. Those details may be less relevant in the scenario you are in but they make all the difference in others. I think thats where this strange discrepancy is from, in part, at least. One other source is player meta

  8. ISO #8

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    Quote Originally Posted by MattZed View Post
    I don't think Mafia is any less skill-based than, say, Poker. Sure, there's definitely some chance involved and you might misread people. But if you're pretty good, it'll show.
    That's a good comparison. Some games have an obvious general high level because many players are making skillful plays, and when that happens, the winning team usually obviously deserves the win because its members played better than those of the losing team.

    I think what makes skill in Mafia look subjective is that it is relative: there is no way to measure it like one would measure temperature, for example. It doesn't make it any less important. Also, @OzyWho may be interested in this thread if he comes back next year: it joins up pretty well with his example of the dart-throwing monkey being better than economists at predicting stuff about the stock market (i.e. mafia isn't like that).
    Quote Originally Posted by The Lawyer View Post
    Besides your lamp and your refridgerators, do you find anyone else suspicious?
    Quote Originally Posted by oliverz144 View Post
    it looks like many, e.g. MM and lag, suffered under the influence of paopan. However there is a victim: frinckles. He left the path of rationality and fully dived into the parallel reality of baby shark, king shark, and soviet union pizzas.
    Spoiler : The meaning of life :

  9. ISO #9

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    This is something I was working on to provide a path for player improvement and a bit of a work in progress but this is how I see it:

    Beginner-
    Basic understanding of voting, game mechanics, and roles

    Novice-
    Basic understanding of WIFOM, seeding, tells, traps, and simple mechanical hunting
    Can use and understands the commonly used mafia slang/abbreviations
    Grasps basic strategy's like RvS, and follow the cop

    Intermediate-
    Some ability to scum hunt past depending on Meta, Gut reads, and simple mechanical hunting
    Ability to avoid being scum read by default as town
    Understands the majority of mafia slang/abbreviations
    Comfortable enough to play as scum and work within a wolf team without going for a lurk win or screwing your team mates
    Some ability to lead a town and guide their focus
    Grasps general strategies
    Understands how to set up traps and gambits as well as how to pull information from their use without getting themselves lynched
    Can comfortably play many game types (Vanilla, PR heavy, Multiball, Mashups, Turbo, Real life, Skype, ect..)

    Advanced-
    Can evaluate setups to understand what tells to focus on and what strategies to use
    Can sometimes spot other players seeding and picks up on small details
    Ability to form reads through multiple methods and communicate those reads to other players effectively and persuasively
    Ability to manipulate how they are read by others as needed
    Effective at leading a town and guiding their focus
    Some ability to Power wolf, push misslynches, track town bias, and lead a scum team
    Ability to gambit effectively and set traps, has some understanding of more subtle maneuvers
    Can comfortably play on multiple sites

    Expert-
    Mastery of using Mechanical hunting, Wagonomics, and Theory crafting in tandem
    Strong understanding most scum hunting methods and when one should be favored over another
    Understands the majority of strategies and when they should be used
    Ability to peg scum players on D1 with some confidence
    Comfortable power wolfing, always tracks town bias and can push misslynches effectively
    Understanding of game tempo / timing to reveal information, use gambits, and push for days end lynch
    Ability to shade a player for lynch days in advance
    Strong understanding of how to track town Bias to manipulate a mislynch
    Ability to communicate subtly in day chat
    Can use Game Theory to identify optimal play or leverage sub-optimal play to submarine the town
    Has some understanding of the overall Mafia/werewolf community to include the sites and players of note

    Master-
    Can push a misslynch so effectively they are not even scum read for doing so post flip, sometimes gets town read by players for scum reading them because their reasoning is so good
    Innovates and creates effective strategies
    Ability to manipulate how others are read by others through various methods
    Ability to manipulate overall game moral as necessary
    Ability to recognize how days will play out before the day starts through experience
    Mastery of evading lynches
    Ability to recognize and read players in context to how they understand the game
    Comfortable pulling FPS gambits
    Regularly picks up on subtle communication between other players and seeding
    Wins fucking championships

    I don't think skill can be strictly quantified but I do feel that a list like this could be made and players could be roughly categorized in a general way. My goal in building this is to allow players to go through the list themselves and help them cut through the 'cherry picking' nature we all have to point to our good plays and say we are good.
    Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
    If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.

  10. ISO #10

    Re: to what extent is FM skill subjective?

    I should probably go back through and rework that list a good bit. It really lacks structure and is more of a collage of attributes. Theres also quite a few that are in the wrong place at a glance
    Intellectual growth comes from discussions, not arguments. If you are unwilling to change your position and hear the other persons side you are closed minded and wasting your time.
    If you can not clearly explain what the other sides reasoning is you can not disagree with their position because you do not understand it.

  11. ISO #11

 

 

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