S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[yzb25]

Am I making sense?

yes, but it might be worth leaving open the possibility that assessor used their ability n1 to minimize risk of TPR's fudging with their abilities later on in the game when it's less obvious and for WIFOM.

I also think there's a decent possibility that if Unknown/Helz is beguiler or smth isntead then the assessor may plan to simply sit on their ability for ages and let the threat of the ability put pressure on who we lynch.

[FrostByte]

Am I making sense?

Haven't you been locked down, though? I don't see how you could've been bound, assuming CA wouldn't do it n1

[Frinckles]

And Naz' list to check got much smaller.

Yzb when do you plan on claiming

[Frinckles]

Haven't you been locked down, though? I don't see how you could've been bound, assuming CA wouldn't do it n1

I was locked on night one.

[yzb25]

I'm a little peeved Martin didn't try to switch DM but I guess the threat of that happening may have dissuaded CA from being too obvious with their ability.

[yzb25]

And Naz' list to check got much smaller.

Yzb when do you plan on claiming

Tomorrow

[yzb25]

Everything has risk, but I don't think it's totally idiotic to hedge our bets and lynch DM today. the WIFOM complexity may have managed to ward the CA away from that

[yzb25]

The fact both Helz and Unknown seem totally fine with that lynch is a little disconcerting tho. It makes a lot of sense for both of them to play the way they have if they're CA.

[MartinGG99]

Some thoughts that I have:

-----There's only 2 Triad Randoms, one of them is 100% Dark Magician. Leaving only one possible TPR among us to be capable of producing TPR feedback (if applicable) while still being triad

-----There's minimum 1 triad in Frostbyte/MattZed (because they're the only inferred or direct citizen claims, Yzb25 claimed vague TPR)

I'm assuming max 2 citizens in the setup for a few reasons:

1. The power-role count for scums and town generally should be equal based on past balancing advice on this forum
2. The setup has almost 40% of its players as scum roles; some places only advise AT MOST 30% scum ratio for the majority of setups
3. The double input of Busdrivers in the game, with 1 confirmed and the other not, seemed designed to cause counter-claims and guarantee a miselimination fmpov. (This could be debatable though)


And with #3 add an * as that may also mean double butler is less likely since #3 has already happened.

[Frinckles]

Everything has risk, but I don't think it's totally idiotic to hedge our bets and lynch DM today. the WIFOM complexity may have managed to ward the CA away from that

I'm just pointing out what I would do from the CA's perspective.

1. DH tries to kill Frinckles (which he did.)
2. Suddenly he fails and a potential triad teammate is outted.
3. Bind Frinckles to the potential teammate likely to die (and in fact PUSH it to make it happen.)

[Frinckles]

Its not unbelievable to think DH would go form me N1 as 4 different people did.

[MattZed]

I'm generally in favor of a DM yeet today too: It's quite possible DM isn't bound because of some night action stopping it.

If a day skip is possible, I don't think it's the craziest option, either. It seems unlikely we have a sniper, so worst case we lose one town, but it's possible one of our TPRs gets to do something useful.

(to be clear, I'd sooner yeet DM, but skip is on my options list)

I'm especially interested in hearing what Naz has to say, especially because SpyNaz would probably know at least one other triad at this point.

[Frinckles]

Or 3 rather

[Unknown1234]

Does the CA bind go away after one day? If it doesn't then we're just bringing ourselves to the same potential situation tomorrow.

[MartinGG99]

Everything has risk, but I don't think it's totally idiotic to hedge our bets and lynch DM today. the WIFOM complexity may have managed to ward the CA away from that

That's what I've been feeling

especially since it seems my WIFOM'ing was partially for nothing in (wrongly) suspecting you lol

in fact I was hoping this quote made it look like I was telling the Locksmith to target DM:

It would be very bad.

And I quite agree with you @MattZed

Locksmith (Or I) should have at least one target on Dark Magician.

[MattZed]

If I were a CA, I probably would have at least TRIED to get my night action off last night if I didn't already N1. Even if one of my targets gets bussed around, there's a good chance I can at least cause chaos/still get a triad-town bind.

[MartinGG99]

Does the CA bind go away after one day? If it doesn't then we're just bringing ourselves to the same potential situation tomorrow.

It doesn't un-bind afaik.

[MattZed]

Does the CA bind go away after one day? If it doesn't then we're just bringing ourselves to the same potential situation tomorrow.

No, it's a permanent rest-of-the-game bind that starts the day after it's applied.

It's certainly possible that if we DON'T yeet DM today, he just gets bound tomorrow, yes.

And we do need to get rid of him at SOME POINT anyways.

[Unknown1234]

It doesn't un-bind afaik.

Then what's the point of not lynching DM? We would have to do it at some point anyways

[yzb25]

Does the CA bind go away after one day? If it doesn't then we're just bringing ourselves to the same potential situation tomorrow.

It remains even after the CA fucking dies. I asked the host T_T

The difference is if we get CA'd now we risk going to 4-4. If we get CA'd later after lynching a triad we won't need to rely on a protective to stop a kill or the DH to fuck up

[FrostByte]

It seems unlikely we have a sniper

What makes you say this?

[MattZed]

Okay, this "have to do it eventually" argument is getting to me more. If we yeet a triad now and lose a town at night, we wake up 5v3 tomorrow, where we would still be doomed by a CA messing with us. (and there's basically no way we'd ever GUESS who DM was bound to)

[MartinGG99]

-vote Dark Magician

Then yeah this is the best idea....

If DM isn't bounded by today then CA will have a harder time predicting who to bind with who in the future with how rocky this D3 has been lol

[yzb25]

It remains even after the CA fucking dies. I asked the host T_T

The difference is if we get CA'd now we risk going to 4-4. If we get CA'd later after lynching a triad we won't need to rely on a protective to stop a kill or the DH to fuck up

sorry, my calculation is wrong there. But it does mean we'll give the protectives more time to avert another kill before shit equalizes.

[MartinGG99]

-vote Dark Magician

Then yeah this is the best idea....

If DM isn't bounded by today then CA will have a harder time predicting who to bind with who in the future with how rocky this D3 has been lol

keep in mind this is not advocacy for a hammer

as always

[Dark Magician]

DM, please.

Shhhhh.

You're only alive because we had a mechanically confirmed scum yesterday. Your opinion means nothing to us at this point and every post you make is just a distraction from us getting something done.

I mean, I’m answering questions and responding accordingly, you may believe I’m some sort of Caught wolf but I’m Stalker.

[MattZed]

What makes you say this?

We haven't yet had two deaths in a night, DW alleged there's a witch, we have two TPR claims that have a triad analogue, and there are only two random triad roles.

[yzb25]

what happens if a witch targets someone who places 2 targets? Does 1 of the targets get moved or both of them get moved?

[yzb25]

btw, if you have reads you want to share, you should write a lw in case you die

[MattZed]

I mean, I’m answering questions and responding accordingly, you may believe I’m some sort of Caught wolf but I’m Stalker.

Okay, I'll play along.

Who did you stalk last night?

[MattZed]

what happens if a witch targets someone who places 2 targets? Does 1 of the targets get moved or both of them get moved?

The rolecard says they just can't target such people.

[yzb25]

I'm trying to say we now have to update lws on days as well as nights if we want to share any reads in death.

[yzb25]

The rolecard says they just can't target such people.

oh sorry for wasting host's time ty

[MartinGG99]

Some thoughts that I have:

-----There's only 2 Triad Randoms, one of them is 100% Dark Magician. Leaving only one possible TPR among us to be capable of producing TPR feedback (if applicable) while still being triad

-----There's minimum 1 triad in Frostbyte/MattZed (because they're the only inferred or direct citizen claims, Yzb25 claimed vague TPR)

I'm assuming max 2 citizens in the setup for a few reasons:

1. The power-role count for scums and town generally should be equal based on past balancing advice on this forum
2. The setup has almost 40% of its players as scum roles; some places only advise AT MOST 30% scum ratio for the majority of setups
3. The double input of Busdrivers in the game, with 1 confirmed and the other not, seemed designed to cause counter-claims and guarantee a miselimination fmpov. (This could be debatable though)


And with #3 add an * as that may also mean double butler is less likely since #3 has already happened.

Continuing on with this (with me believing Unkown to be the butler)

assuming Renegade is lock-town as Locksmith

then last 3 scum (other than DM) are in this group of 4:

Frostbyte + MattZed + Naz + Helz

[Helz]

Can we take a moment to appreciate that Mattzed has been anti-town af lately. In a different whimsical mood, I could imagine him getting quite uppity about "merr merr merr merr you're not respecting the game state by TPR fishing like this. There is no mEcHaNicAl value to pushing for a mass claim when it won't benefit the lynch choices today.

@Helz

Butler, please apologize for the shit your sire has left on the dining table and promptly clean it away. My butler has no responsibility for your master acting in such an irresponsible manner.

Its ok. I clean his toilet with his toothbrush and steal his pocket change.

@Helz you've been here a while and I'm positively DYING to see your wallpost.

Lol. Im back now but no wall post. I had a visitor Irl. Catching up now starting with mentions which are apparently only these two.

[Unknown1234]

Continuing on with this (with me believing Unkown to be the butler)

assuming Renegade is lock-town as Locksmith

then last 3 scum (other than DM) are in this group of 4:

Frostbyte + MattZed + Naz + Helz

In this situation, Helz and Naz would be confirmed triad.

[MartinGG99]

In this situation, Helz and Naz would be confirmed triad.

Good spot.

I forgot about one of my earlier assumptions, where there's max 1 triad in Mattzed / Frostbyte lol.

[MattZed]

Continuing on with this (with me believing Unkown to be the butler)

assuming Renegade is lock-town as Locksmith

then last 3 scum (other than DM) are in this group of 4:

Frostbyte + MattZed + Naz + Helz

This line of reasoning implies Helz is scum. If he were town, then I'm town and you only have at most 2 scum in your scumpool. It would also imply Naz is scum because SOMEONE has to be a Cit.

[Unknown1234]

Bus Driver - Oberon
Town Random - Unknown1234 (Butler)
Town Random - yzb25 (???)
Town Random - Frinckles (Scientist)
Town Random - MartinGG99 (Bus Driver)
Town Random - Naz/Renegade/FrostByte(?)/Helz
Citizen - Bakermir
Citizen - MattZed/FrostByte(?)

[MartinGG99]

This line of reasoning implies Helz is scum. If he were town, then I'm town and you only have at most 2 scum in your scumpool. It would also imply Naz is scum because SOMEONE has to be a Cit.

Yeah, it DOES imply Helz is scum even if I don't like it.

Only way out of that is if there's Renegade as Moulder.....

Which means there's a possible Naz + Renegade + Mattzed scum world

but that's not possible since the triad only have 1 left-over Triad Random, which would plausibly be Naz and not Renegade.

[MartinGG99]

Yeah, it DOES imply Helz is scum even if I don't like it.

Only way out of that is if there's Renegade as Moulder.....

Which means there's a possible Naz + Renegade + Mattzed scum world

but that's not possible since the triad only have 1 left-over Triad Random, which would plausibly be Naz and not Renegade.

Err I mean Helz not MattZed

[MattZed]

I'm actually really not liking FrostByte's lack of commitment to claiming Cit/Not-Cit. If he's a TPR, then acknowledging he's non-Cit confirms me AND gives us the information that Baker wasn't bound and was actually cit as well.

Why would he just give this useful info to town if he's town?

[Frinckles]

I'd be absolutely livid as DH if Renegademoulder blocked my kill.

[Dark Magician]

Here's my list. I hope your feelings are not hurt if I scumread you. That's how it is:

Unknown1234 (Butler = YZB Town)
MattZed (Cit/LS)
MartinGG99 (Bus Driver)
yzb25 (Cit/LS)
Naz (Detective/Stalker)

Renegade (Cit/LS)

Helz (Butler = Matt Town)
FrostByte
Dark Magician (Triad)

-------------------------------------------------------

DM is definitely Triad here. He's being lynched today.
Frostbyte seems scummier than ren.
Helz is the less likely butler imo.

Naz gave us legit info yesterday when she really didn't need to as scum. Sure the towncred is cool but what's the point of keeping up with that charade?

Renegade falls into the center.

I'm inclined to believe my top three townreads.

So in conclusion. DM is getting escorted out of the party today. I think locksmith should reveal tomorrow. Not many scenarios where I'll be dead.

Can you like not put me as confirmed Traid when I’m not.
Thank You.
I claimed my role, I received that role after my switch, I used my role last night on Naz.
Now stop being a butt muncher and try and help me figure out the team.

RN I’m guessing it’s Haiz, Frost, Martin And Matt.

[Unknown1234]

I'm actually really not liking FrostByte's lack of commitment to claiming Cit/Not-Cit. If he's a TPR, then acknowledging he's non-Cit confirms me AND gives us the information that Baker wasn't bound and was actually cit as well.

Why would he just give this useful info to town if he's town?

I agree with this. If there isn't a good reason for it I would probably put him as my top lynch tomorrow.

[Helz]

It doesn't really matter whether we technically were or weren't on it. I'm just making the point your townreads on us were strong enough for you to exclude us when you listed the same 3 names multiple times for your POE.

Maybe I'm over-pedestalizing you, but you claimed to have read everything 3 times to Frosty. You have an immaculate response to every question in <5 minutes, and borderline academic knowledge of how this game works, putting aside the fact it's fucking absurd and nerdy to talk about a forum game "academically". I somehow doubt Martin is going to flip any of your reads with his, and I somehow feel like you know this. You haven't asked for anyone else for insights at any other point in the game simply for the sake of it - it was always to steer conversation or make a read, as far as I can remember.

Excuse me for being presumptuous, it just looked a little like you were using Martin.

Anyway, as you say I have a lot of time to make my mind up about this, and your answers are quite strong.

I can quote you the posts if you need but you should read the end of D2. Martin was discussing my PoE and gave town pegs on just about everyone but you and then mentioned doing a read on someone tommorow. I followed up asking him about you and he clarified you were the one he wanted to do a read on tommorow. My poking him for it today is just a follow up of that.

The thing that had pinged me then was that it put 2 more scum reads in the group I had eliminated from the PoE. I dont remember exactly where I was going with that line of thought but it added up to 'you have tons of town peggs so where do you think the scum are?' We never got that far.

[Dark Magician]

I'm actually really not liking FrostByte's lack of commitment to claiming Cit/Not-Cit. If he's a TPR, then acknowledging he's non-Cit confirms me AND gives us the information that Baker wasn't bound and was actually cit as well.

Why would he just give this useful info to town if he's town?

-vote Frostbite

[MattZed]

-unvote

I don't like FB, but there's no way I'm letting a triad conspiracy possibly let DM slip away.

[Helz]

I think we will have to agree to disagree about whether or not Butler is considered a citizen. In my opinion revealing early as one only makes it easier for triad.

Since it seems likely that you didn't already believe I was butler, I'm going to drop this point as of now. I still don't know whether I want to believe that there are two butlers in this setup with two bus drivers, but I don't feel like Martin's actions have been scum-driven. I'm going to sit on this thought for now and re-read to see if you being butler does make sense.

I have never made the claim that there is two butlers in this setup with two busdrivers. The only thing I said on the subject was logic to as why I think two butlers could be possible after you specifically asked me if I thought it was impossible. When I draw my conclusion it will be after digging into you and not simply because of host meta. Your interactions with Yzb should reflect your claimed perspective throughout the game to this point.

[Helz]

this is quite nice. We can go through the game and check literally every time unknown talked to me and helz talked to matt, though frustratingly I feel like they made sure their asses were covered lmao

I love that someone else recognized this.

The only way covering up would occur is if at the start of the game a scum had decided his cover claim. I find it more common that scum make claims to cater to the gamestate at the time they are forced to claim.