S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[Helz]

@Helz what is your real role?

I am a Butler with a N0 peek on Matt. And no I was never switched.

[MattZed]

It's 6v4. There's no way DM isn't Triad. My only concern is if he got bound to town by the corrupted assessor, which would put us at 5v4 going into N3.

[Unknown1234]

Helz is not butler.

[MattZed]

Helz is not butler.

At this point, he's had a chance to recant. I think it's time to share your evidence.

[Frinckles]

It's 6v4. There's no way DM isn't Triad. My only concern is if he got bound to town by the corrupted assessor, which would put us at 5v4 going into N3.

Corrupted would likely mark two mostly confirmed roles

[FrostByte]

It's 6v4. There's no way DM isn't Triad. My only concern is if he got bound to town by the corrupted assessor, which would put us at 5v4 going into N3.

How do you figure this?

[Helz]

10 PLAYERS REMAINING, 6 votes to hammer.

This means that all of us have to vote.

But I guess scum doesn't know each other. That would mean they would be reluctant to vote?

Today should be easy. We have a scum in the bag already.

The focus should be on the coming days and working out if we want to handle the mass claim today or tomorrow as we break through the PoE

[MattZed]

Helz is not butler.

Also this is incredibly bold given the potential that Helz took a nice little bus ride, but please proceed.

[Unknown1234]

Yzb25 is my Town confirmed slot.

If I'm dead this means there's a chance that Helz is town. In the event, there are three situations that could exist right now.

1.) Helz is town but not Butler, and suspected that I was butler. I believe this could be the case because of #post 752 made by him. He says he does not want to discuss why this slot might be town for "-reasons-" and also puts me as his highest town-read only above yzb25. If this situation is true I suspect him to be a stronger town role and was hoping to get attention on him and not on others.

I hinted several times that Yzb25 was my butler target, and Helz seemed to strongly town-read me most of the game. I believe this is a very possible scenario. In the event this is true, I still suspect MattZed to be triad.

2.) Helz is town and we are both Butler. While this seems extremely unlikely given that it would leave us with two extra confirmed town players, and would leave 4 triad in DM/Bakermir/Renegade/Naz/FrostByte. This feels like the most unlikely scenario to be true, partially because of setup balance.

3.) Helz is triad and is fake-claiming Butler. This could either be because he didn't see anyone else claiming Butler and saw it as an opportunity, or because he thought I was butler for reasons previously stated. I would not put it past Helz to do this but I think his reaction in day 3 is more likely indicative of which scenario this is.

Yzb, Frinckles and Martin should not be considered for lynch in this game anymore. Frinckles catching the switcher and revealing it makes him basically confirmed, while Martin's roleclaim also puts him in a similar position. MattZed should also not be lynched before Helz unless his Butler claim ends up being fake like I expect it to.

Ignoring Helz' claim, my 4 triad picks would have been MattZed, DM, Naz, and FrostByte. With Helz claiming to be Butler, it leaves me more inclined to believe Naz being an actual Detective or FrostByte being a silent unrevealed TPR. I think night action from Naz will make this situation much more clear.

[Helz]

Helz is not butler.

At this point, he's had a chance to recant. I think it's time to share your evidence.

Go for it but you are wrong. I hardclaim Butler and nothing will change that.

[yzb25]

Today should be easy. We have a scum in the bag already.

The focus should be on the coming days and working out if we want to handle the mass claim today or tomorrow as we break through the PoE

we need to be cautious with the assessor. Whether it's safe to vote DM is going to depend on what the TPRs have to report.

[Frinckles]

This gon get good

[MattZed]

How do you figure this?

I... I've said this many times but I'll say it again

1. Being a town former-switcher and casting shade ON THE TOWN WHO KNOWS YOU WERE SWITCHER is incredibly scummy. Why would town DM support a Frinckles train AT ALL when DM knows Frinckles had a valid lead?
2. Why didn't DM confess who he made into Switcher if his new role was town?
3. Why did DW hammer D1 so early and with so little consideration if he was town then?

[Unknown1234]

Oberon- He dead. Did something stupid but I do feel it was pretty transparent and hold the view that D1's early lynch was a scum driven lynch. Regardless, for the finger wagging: when D2 starts before D1 was suppose to end we did something very wrong in my book.

Unknown- Unknown's reaction to the Oberon situation came from a very town perspective. He took time to consider if it was a real claim or not as well as compared the implications of different ways to handle an outed switcher. The Mafia nerd in me loved that he recognized the potential for WvW created by leashing switcher(and hated that he was the only one to do so) but the real AI part of his reaction came from his clear consideration of others reactions. His focus was not on selling his view to the town but rather to figuring out others views. The evolution of his reads are transparent and his reasoning matches his confidence. Granted this is a D1 read from a day that got cut in half but this is my strongest town read. I will probably push against his lynch even if there is a voiced night action condemning him.

yzb25- A decent D1 town read here. There were constant original points that no scum would reasonably make such as post 418. I am not going to go into detail on this slot for -reasons- but they are my second strongest town read.

MattZed- His reaction in post 280 was on par with what I remember from playing with him years ago and his 284 doubled down on it. @MattZed feel free to be upset with me because my voicing a switcher can work with the town was not bait at all and I dislike that you did not see what Unknown did in the situation. I am curious what Deathworlds saw in him but he is a decent town read for me even though I disagree with some of his views. I particularly liked that we came to some of the same original strategies pre-game and constantly seemed to hold the same thoughts through D1 and his thoughts seemed to echo my own over and over. I am a bit bothered by his participation on that early hammer train but his posts felt genuine and his thought process was consistant. Will have to read more into him as the game goes on.

Bakermir- Seems to be stuck in a mindset of 'normal' games where mafia knows their team mates but I very much like their thought process and how this player is going against the grain. I also like the voiced lack of confidence I find lacking in typical scum reads in post 670. My strongest D1 tell is easily pegging the fake certainty scum push in their reads. There is also the consistent pushing against chaos while focusing on peoples thoughts of players other than Oberon which I loved. Decent town vibes here (for a D1 read.)

MartinGG99- Small town lean on this slot based on his role claim. Posts like 633 speak to a level of uninformed perspective in a genuine way. It’s a soft read but his consistency and reasoning in his vote is strongly supported by his claim. A part of me wants to use host WIFOM to say 2 bus drivers + switcher is a troll setup but regardless his voice is right in line with that narrative. I am waiting on host clarification as to if BD gives feedback- if so we should consider this slot verified. Switcher would not be a sustainable BD claim if it is and this should be remembered D3 (assuming BD gives feedback) but either way this guy should not be on the table for a D2 lynch IMO.

Dark Magician- Null to very slight Town lean here. I disagree with the majority of what I can see as his scum hunting but it is consistent. Posts like 519 and 686 speak to a low effort player without overstepping the 'selling ignorance' slip I have come to recognize as a pretty reliable AI tell. Easy potential for a townie who is not paying attention or a scum pretending to not pay attention but either way this slot is LHF. Post 499 he gives Oberon a "Confirmed town" specifically for the BD claim; and then followed through in post 585 voting after MartinGG99 counter claimed but it feels like a natural evolution.

Renegade- Revoted Oberon after the CC which makes sense. Post 511 felt unnatural in that it described his reasoning as avoiding 'big brain plays' but I could call that NAI-scum leaning. Then 514 clarifys which makes it feel a bit better. He is on the wrong side of a lynch but I dont find his posts particularly scummy. I am still not comfortable with this slot

Frinckles- I have to admit my prior read overstated my certainty by a decent bit (as its become my norm for alternate RVS break d1) but I still take many issues with this slot. A part of me hopes I was right and he will reveal the switcher D2 but the resignation to a lynch concerns me quite a bit. Post 382 screams "I dont give a fuck just kill someone" and post 529 felt like the kind of hard position only scum or a sheriff with a scum check would take. His role claim should give him a pass but I want to see much more from this player given my respect for his ability but I do not trust this slot at all. As Unknown pointed out his most (maybe only) 'Townie' action this game has been his role claim.

Deathworlds- I have mixed feelings on Deathworlds. He has very concise reasoning in his posts with original thoughts that make me want to trust him but then in post 664 it feels like he is saying he believes Oberon is town Bus Driver but lynches him anyways? That looks very bad to me although I find many of the other things he points out sounding like exactly the conclusions I would draw. Neutral to slight scum lean here.

Naz- Naz looks bad. Although I take personal issue with someone joining a game and demanding everyone else change their behavior to cater to how they want to play the frequency yelling about people posting too much felt forced and AI. Off the top of my head it felt like it 90% of his posts were passively excusing his lack of contribution by pointing to the post count and telling people to shut up and stop posting. I could easily see a LHF argument here but I generally see that sort of excusing tunnel vision as AI for inexperienced scum. I understand it takes a while to catch up but note the diffrence between how Deathworlds and Naz did it. I also generally look at the ATE tone as scum sided but thats a subject I suspect some people would debate and I can only say rives from my experience. This player would be in my 'totally lynch if theres not a better option' pool.

FrostByte- This might as well be an empty slot for their D1. I give this player about as much of a read as I would give to a player who didn’t show up D1. Lets pressure for participation? They hit the typical 5 minimum posts exactly.

This is what I’m referring to that made me believe he recognized my claim. Interesting to see him sticking with it.

[Unknown1234]

Helz is basically locked triad for me st this point because a setup with two butlers seems extremely unbalanced. If we want to get into an argument over this I will be glad to but I don’t think it’s going to change much.

[yzb25]

@Helz okay, why did you decide to reveal as butler when you did?

[yzb25]

This gon get good

yh this day gonna be a lot more interesting than yesterday hopefully lol

[Helz]

Yzb25 is my Town confirmed slot.

If I'm dead this means there's a chance that Helz is town. In the event, there are three situations that could exist right now.

1.) Helz is town but not Butler, and suspected that I was butler. I believe this could be the case because of #post 752 made by him. He says he does not want to discuss why this slot might be town for "-reasons-" and also puts me as his highest town-read only above yzb25. If this situation is true I suspect him to be a stronger town role and was hoping to get attention on him and not on others.

I hinted several times that Yzb25 was my butler target, and Helz seemed to strongly town-read me most of the game. I believe this is a very possible scenario. In the event this is true, I still suspect MattZed to be triad.

2.) Helz is town and we are both Butler. While this seems extremely unlikely given that it would leave us with two extra confirmed town players, and would leave 4 triad in DM/Bakermir/Renegade/Naz/FrostByte. This feels like the most unlikely scenario to be true, partially because of setup balance.

3.) Helz is triad and is fake-claiming Butler. This could either be because he didn't see anyone else claiming Butler and saw it as an opportunity, or because he thought I was butler for reasons previously stated. I would not put it past Helz to do this but I think his reaction in day 3 is more likely indicative of which scenario this is.

Yzb, Frinckles and Martin should not be considered for lynch in this game anymore. Frinckles catching the switcher and revealing it makes him basically confirmed, while Martin's roleclaim also puts him in a similar position. MattZed should also not be lynched before Helz unless his Butler claim ends up being fake like I expect it to.

Ignoring Helz' claim, my 4 triad picks would have been MattZed, DM, Naz, and FrostByte. With Helz claiming to be Butler, it leaves me more inclined to believe Naz being an actual Detective or FrostByte being a silent unrevealed TPR. I think night action from Naz will make this situation much more clear.

I suppose we will have to jump down this rabbit hole. I would also recommend that you reveal your gambiting if you are before things go the way they did D1.

Even in a setup with alignment switching madness I find 2 butlers unlikely. On the bright side we are reaching the point where there are simply too many PR claims which is where the real fun starts : )

[MattZed]

I'm not entirely opposed to Unknown being Butler, but he has been rubbing me the wrong way for a long time.

Let me game out how things work if I believe his claim:

We would then have 3 CONFIRMED town, Frinckles, Unknown, and yzb. I know I'm town. DM is just so obviously triad. That leaves 3 scum and 2 town inside of Martin/Naz/Helz/Renegade/FrostByte.

[MattZed]

Scum = DM+Naz+FrostByte+Renegade doesn't sound too crazy to me tbh.

[Frinckles]

Scum = DM+Naz+FrostByte+Renegade doesn't sound too crazy to me tbh.

Naz saw DM switch DW. Is there a analog lookout for scum?

[yzb25]

Naz saw DM switch DW. Is there a analog lookout for scum?

yeah the scum analogue combines det and lookout into one

[Unknown1234]

Naz saw DM switch DW. Is there a analog lookout for scum?

Spy.

[yzb25]

my whiteboard is about to get a fucking makeover lmao

[MattZed]

Two Butlers isn't any crazier than 2 BDs to me. But "what roles did Auwt pick" speculation at this point isn't our best way to get info.

But we have 5 TPR claimers between Frinckles/Martin/Naz/Helz/Unknown, and none of them are claiming Locksmith.

[Frinckles]

Scum = DM+Naz+FrostByte+Renegade doesn't sound too crazy to me tbh.

Also this puts helz/unknown/yzb/you as all confirmed.. uhh that'd be busted

[Dark Magician]

One of these Butlers are fake. Too many slots.
Matt, Unknown, Helz And Yzb25 aren’t all Town.
I feel it’s a way for Traid to Out to each other by claiming Butler on their Traid member to secretly hint they are their buddy.

IK Frinckles is legit, I seen them visit Naz last night.

As such, not much more room exists, thus a Butler Claim is fake.

[FrostByte]

I... I've said this many times but I'll say it again

1. Being a town former-switcher and casting shade ON THE TOWN WHO KNOWS YOU WERE SWITCHER is incredibly scummy. Why would town DM support a Frinckles train AT ALL when DM knows Frinckles had a valid lead?
2. Why didn't DM confess who he made into Switcher if his new role was town?
3. Why did DW hammer D1 so early and with so little consideration if he was town then?

1. That's a good point. When he was arguing with Frinckles though everything wasn't out in the open yet. He could've been grasping on to the story that he had never been switcher
2. He did later and we lynched them. The timing was sus as fuck but it's feasible that he was still trying to figure out how he could get a switcher solo win, like he said
3. Hammering early in this setup isn't inherently scummy. It's possible he did that in order to stop scum from finding each other. There are lots of ways for town to mechanically prove their roles with this setup so scumhunting might be less necessary for town than it is for scum. I'm not super confident about the logic there because I've been overanalyzing whether early d1 hammer was beneficial for town or not but after a couple irl days this is the conclusion my brain feels happy with

To be very clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. My gut has DM marked as scum, too. You just seemed very confident in your wording and I want to talk everything out to avoid potential mislynches due to tunneling.

[MattZed]

If Martin is telling the truth about being BD, we either have a Locksmith or a Moulder. It seems odd to me, but I suppose it's possible a moulder took an N1 action, and either prevent the N1 kill or DW was the DH and couldn't kill due to becoming Switcher.

[MattZed]

One of these Butlers are fake. Too many slots.
Matt, Unknown, Helz And Yzb25 aren’t all Town.
I feel it’s a way for Traid to Out to each other by claiming Butler on their Traid member to secretly hint they are their buddy.

IK Frinckles is legit, I seen them visit Naz last night.

As such, not much more room exists, thus a Butler Claim is fake.

DM, it's well past time for you to roleclaim.

-vote Dark Magician

[Dark Magician]

Scum = DM+Naz+FrostByte+Renegade doesn't sound too crazy to me tbh.

Well I’m not scum, but your right the 3 Players there would legit have to be scum if your all legit.
But you all ain’t.

[Dark Magician]

DM, it's well past time for you to roleclaim.

-vote Dark Magician

I already claimed yesterday?

[Helz]

@Helz okay, why did you decide to reveal as butler when you did?

Someone (May have been Bakermir?) was throwing some smoke and mirrors shade around. For me to explain how I made that PoE I had to reveal that bit. I ended up doing it because I had already considered the situation for quite a while earlier. I felt that me revealing has no cost. If I was killed it would make the PoE harder on the Triad while confirming Matt and I see myself effectively as a citizen. Every time I am a citizen I take pride in being night killed because it means a PR gets a pass that day.

It also had the added advantage of shifting things in the PoE. My thoughts there were that I could create Wifom to limit kills into the players outside the PoE causing the dragon head to have a much higher chance of contending with the Locksmith and the Bus Driver. I am very surprised to see the kill on Bakermir.

Thats a lot of benefits imo. I am particularly interested to see how this plays out if Unknown holds to his claim. 2 bus drivers is unlikely but 2 Butlers is a bit much.

[MattZed]

I already claimed yesterday?

I recall you claiming a triad role, unless I'm mistaken?

If you've claimed a town role, please reiterate now.

[Unknown1234]

I'm not entirely opposed to Unknown being Butler, but he has been rubbing me the wrong way for a long time.

Let me game out how things work if I believe his claim:

We would then have 3 CONFIRMED town, Frinckles, Unknown, and yzb. I know I'm town. DM is just so obviously triad. That leaves 3 scum and 2 town inside of Martin/Naz/Helz/Renegade/FrostByte.

I'm more inclined to believe that Helz would be lying over Martin based on the way their role claims came out.

[Dark Magician]

1. That's a good point. When he was arguing with Frinckles though everything wasn't out in the open yet. He could've been grasping on to the story that he had never been switcher
2. He did later and we lynched them. The timing was sus as fuck but it's feasible that he was still trying to figure out how he could get a switcher solo win, like he said
3. Hammering early in this setup isn't inherently scummy. It's possible he did that in order to stop scum from finding each other. There are lots of ways for town to mechanically prove their roles with this setup so scumhunting might be less necessary for town than it is for scum. I'm not super confident about the logic there because I've been overanalyzing whether early d1 hammer was beneficial for town or not but after a couple irl days this is the conclusion my brain feels happy with

To be very clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. My gut has DM marked as scum, too. You just seemed very confident in your wording and I want to talk everything out to avoid potential mislynches due to tunneling.

^^^^
Exactly.
If I’m going to be lynched today and it’s unavoidable due to DW fake claiming me as Sorcerer then so be it.
But let’s get as much discussion time as possible as after my lynch I’m pretty sure this goes into MYLO/LYLO and I’m fairly certain one of the Butler’s are fake.

[Dark Magician]

I'm more inclined to believe that Helz would be lying over Martin based on the way their role claims came out.

Like assuming both you and Helz are legit.
The team would have to be exactly Naz, Rene, Frost and Martin.
Which while possible, I fine highly unlikely.

[MattZed]

I'm more inclined to believe that Helz would be lying over Martin based on the way their role claims came out.

tbh I believe your claim the least of the three. Helz' "peek" at me makes sense from the perspective of someone who didn't read the setup well (to see no LWs) but did read their rolecard.

Could you quote some place where you softed Butler, if you did so?

[Dark Magician]

I recall you claiming a triad role, unless I'm mistaken?

If you've claimed a town role, please reiterate now.

Yes, Stalker is a Traid Role.

[Helz]

tbh I believe your claim the least of the three. Helz' "peek" at me makes sense from the perspective of someone who didn't read the setup well (to see no LWs) but did read their rolecard.

Could you quote some place where you softed Butler, if you did so?

To be fair this is one of the only sites that ever uses a Last Will. I have not played a game here in a very long time. Its only normal to assume there might be a LW mechanic for players who regularly play on this site.

[MattZed]

I'm feeling pretty mass-claimy right now. The only thing that can really go wrong with a massclaim is if we have a vig, which I'm really starting to doubt given the current claims out there.

[Dark Magician]

Naz saw DM switch DW. Is there a analog lookout for scum?

Pretty sure they denied that claim.

[Dark Magician]

I'm feeling pretty mass-claimy right now. The only thing that can really go wrong with a massclaim is if we have a vig, which I'm really starting to doubt given the current claims out there.

Well most people have claimed already.

[MattZed]

Pretty sure they denied that claim.

DM, please.

Shhhhh.

You're only alive because we had a mechanically confirmed scum yesterday. Your opinion means nothing to us at this point and every post you make is just a distraction from us getting something done.

[MartinGG99]

10 PLAYERS REMAINING, 6 votes to hammer.

This means that all of us have to vote.

But I guess scum doesn't know each other. That would mean they would be reluctant to vote?

Its majority + plurality

Town only needs to have enough votes

[Frinckles]

So two lookouts, one of which accurately gave us info before the fact.

Two butler claims.

[Unknown1234]

tbh I believe your claim the least of the three. Helz' "peek" at me makes sense from the perspective of someone who didn't read the setup well (to see no LWs) but did read their rolecard.

Could you quote some place where you softed Butler, if you did so?

I never softed the role-claim as much as making it obvious that yzb was town from my POV. Me dying gives town a confirmed town. Him dying does virtually nothing. If you want me to go through the thread to prove my innocence so you can question Helz then I will, but I don't see how much it will change your mind.

Why would I claim butler if I actually wasn't butler? Helz would have a perfect opportunity to fake-claim it as a different town role but just as much intention as triad.

[Unknown1234]

So two lookouts, one of which accurately gave us info before the fact.

Two butler claims.

I think naz claimed to be detective.

[MattZed]

I never softed the role-claim as much as making it obvious that yzb was town from my POV. Me dying gives town a confirmed town. Him dying does virtually nothing. If you want me to go through the thread to prove my innocence so you can question Helz then I will, but I don't see how much it will change your mind.

Why would I claim butler if I actually wasn't butler? Helz would have a perfect opportunity to fake-claim it as a different town role but just as much intention as triad.

tbh, I don't really need to hear a defense from you right now. The theory that you AND Helz are telling the truth is decently plausible to me.

[Unknown1234]

tbh, I don't really need to hear a defense from you right now. The theory that you AND Helz are telling the truth is decently plausible to me.

Who is triad right now then?