S-FM 316 : The Fooling Party

[Renegade]

We could still have a military floating around out there.

[FrostByte]

I'm honestly not that confident in anyone's ability to mechanically solve this crazy ass setup on d3. There are too many variables and I'm too confident in scum's ability to argue a bullshit claim. If I was TPR or cit I'd be doing the same thing I'm doing. Mass claims are dumb. With so many scum and so many TPR claims and all the night action switching fuckery we can't mechanically verify hardly anyone.

I'm town. I'm not claiming cit or TPR on d3 because we need to leave a little WIFOM ambiguity to night actions imo. I might be convinced otherwise but with as pushy and impatient as MattZed and Hels have been I think I'm doing the right thing. I asked both of them why it's important for me to claim specifically today and I didn't get an answer. I don't think there's a logical reason for doing today, and I know there's a logical reason for not doing it today.

Again, you're not gonna be able to mechanically solve it today. Too many potentially bullshit scum claims and too many potentially skilled bullshitters.

[FrostByte]

Keeping things a bit ambiguous so town doesn't tunnel themselves.

[Helz]

Just a heads up, my internet died around 8:30 and hasn’t come back in yet. Finished Naz, Renegade and Frost looking on my phone but typing on my computer. Will be back to post it whenever my internets back and will dig through Unknown and Yzb. It was agony finishing those 3 on the phone. I have no idea how people can play FM on phones so Props yo you Naz

[MattZed]

Well, I'm awake. I'm still of the opinion that the massclaim I pushed for can't actually mechanically solve anything. (Renegade claiming Locksmith changes my instincts a bit, though)

I'll be starting some ISOs in a few hours. Right now, I'm still waking up/watching Season 4 of The Crown.

[FrostByte]

the massclaim I pushed for can't actually mechanically solve anything.

There are too many unknown variables. Narrowing down everyone by claims leaves the townies, who are being honest, more vulnerable and gives the scum a layer of claim WIFOM to hide behind. D3 mass claim is bad new bears.

[FrostByte]

I can't believe so many people claimed with very little or no real reason to do so.

Y'all suspicious as fuck.

[yzb25]

Keeping things a bit ambiguous so town doesn't tunnel themselves.

That's fair enough. It's not rly about solving the game d3 tho - it's about helping the night actions. Simply claiming to be a TPR does not really help the DH with their kill, nor does it tell the witch whether they should try to control you rather than Naz or me. It only helps towns to know they can ignore mattzed in their computations moving forward. Naz will be free not to check MZ for example, and Martin will know not to try to switch Matt into triad fire.

[FrostByte]

Every single scum who's lied about a claim knows they're lying about their claim. Scum then has a more complete look at the pieces of the puzzle than town.

Y'all done fucking goofed.

[yzb25]

Every single scum who's lied about a claim knows they're lying about their claim. Scum then has a more complete look at the pieces of the puzzle than town.

Y'all done fucking goofed.

I agree that this shouldn't have happened in the first place and matt majorly fucked up if he's town. But now the fuck up has happened I think committing to one or the other has genuine value.

[naz]

even if u claim fb I can't solve but knowing if Matt is the last confirmed cit helps

in my world building : auwt put all town random as tpr just due to the chaotic nature of the setup. i am sure he expected both bd and switcher to last longer than they did - town needed all the tpr lol

[naz]

like its fine ur not claiming but it makes me stressed to pick the right person
pretty sure im gonna fuck up again tonight so pls don't count on my night results tomorrow lmao

[FrostByte]

That's fair enough. It's not rly about solving the game d3 tho - it's about helping the night actions. Simply claiming to be a TPR does not really help the DH with their kill, nor does it tell the witch whether they should try to control you rather than Naz or me. It only helps towns to know they can ignore mattzed in their computations moving forward. Naz will be free not to check MZ for example, and Martin will know not to try to switch Matt into triad fire.

Nosir. There are 4 scum, all of whom are either currently lying about a claim or will lie about one in the future. Y'all do not have a complete enough picture to even begin considering filling out all the slots. Anyone who thinks they do is jumping the gun.

[naz]

I have no idea how people can play FM on phones so Props yo you Naz

tis why im a low effort player + get scum read a lot for it😅🙂🙃

[FrostByte]

like its fine ur not claiming but it makes me stressed to pick the right person
pretty sure im gonna fuck up again tonight so pls don't count on my night results tomorrow lmao

hedging your bets and blaming me for you not having any actionable information after tonight?
You didn't have any after last night but you didn't have me to blame for that shit. If you don't after tonight I still won't be to blame for it.

You being scummy isn't my fault

[FrostByte]

tis why im a low effort player + get scum read a lot for it

You get scumread because you say shit like "haha I didn't read the setup" and then a few pages later basically say to someone "haha you'd know x if you read the setup"

[naz]

hedging your bets and blaming me for you not having any actionable information after tonight?
You didn't have any after last night but you didn't have me to blame for that shit. If you don't after tonight I still won't be to blame for it.

You being scummy isn't my fault

where in the fuck did I blame ur ugly ass for me picking the wrong person tonight
I can do that on my own u idiot lmao

[naz]

You get scumread because you say shit like "haha I didn't read the setup" and then a few pages later basically say to someone "haha you'd know x if you read the setup"

if only u knew what "half the setup" means

[MattZed]

At this point, I don't intend to bark up the FrostByte tree today. He's not today's yeet, and I don't see why he wouldn't reveal tomorrow if he's one of the main yeet candidates then. As much as I haven't liked some of his actions today, he is right that the massclaim didn't do much. (I'm a little more inclined to agree with yzb that it helps our night actions, but that wasn't the reason I pushed for it in the first place)

Now that I'm in "let's try something other than mechanical solve" mode, I can see a possible town motivation for being against the massclaim: he could think it's anti-town, (it often is in a normal game this early) that those pushing it are scum (which is what he went for), and that we really should be going for scummy behavior (which would be consistent with what he's done, and the tactic Helz is winning me over to) He doesn't have to be a scum trying to resist the claim because he doesn't have a good lie. After all, AT LEAST one scum has hardclaimed a specific town role, and they're alive for it.

[FrostByte]

if only u knew what "half the setup" means

Right, only the half that it's convenient for you to be able to scumpaint renegade with

if ur gonna ask questions like this, bring answers to the table please. especially since ur asking questions answered in the setup thread....

[FrostByte]

where in the fuck did I blame ur ugly ass for me picking the wrong person tonight
I can do that on my own u idiot lmao

Right here, you fucking shallow mongoloid cunt

like its fine ur not claiming but it makes me stressed to pick the right person
pretty sure im gonna fuck up again tonight so pls don't count on my night results tomorrow lmao

As if you wouldn't be stressed to pick the right person if I claimed. Or are you too fucking ditzy to pay attention?

[naz]

Right, only the half that it's convenient for you to be able to scumpaint renegade with

thats not scumpainting LMAO he is literally just asking questions instead of reading or offering ideas - i didn't do that
pls try harder loser hahaha

[naz]

Right here, you fucking shallow mongoloid cunt



As if you wouldn't be stressed to pick the right person if I claimed. Or are you too fucking ditzy to pay attention?

thats not blaming you dumbass

[naz]

his name is frostbyte because he's a snowflake🥺

[FrostByte]

his name is frostbyte because he's a snowflake梁

oh man you get to call me ugly but when I call you a shallow mongoloid cunt all of a sudden your feefees get hurt and I'm a snowflake.

Nice contribution to the game. Guess I hit the nail on the head.

[FrostByte]

thats not blaming you dumbass

It's preemptively blaming me for you not having actionable information for tomorrow, retard

[FrostByte]

thats not scumpainting LMAO he is literally just asking questions instead of reading or offering ideas - i didn't do that
pls try harder loser hahaha

You were definitely subtly scum painting renegade for "not bringing anything to the table" because of shit he "should've read in the setup thread" that you "only read half of"

It was weak bullshit and the only response you've had to it is to say "NU UH!" and namecall

Fucking weak as fuck

[FrostByte]

Don't start no shit won't be no shit, as the urban youth of the 2010s would say

[naz]

looool is someone triggered??? ohhh noooo

[yzb25]

this fm game suddenly looking like a youtube comments section lmao

[naz]

this fm game suddenly looking like a youtube comments section lmao

a dislike is people saying "dis i like" 😌

[yzb25]

rep if you're reading this in 2021!

[naz]

rip cannot rep in fm games

[yzb25]

rep if you cannot rep this post in 2021!

[Helz]

this fm game suddenly looking like a youtube comments section lmao

I got some cures for that shit : P
Working on summaries now for the other two:

Frostbyte up to 2k

Post # Comments
FrostByte 276 Responds to Oberons Switcher claim saying "Shut the fuck up"
283 Votes Oberon with reasoning voicing a policy lynch
294 Town reads Matts logic on voting Oberon
295 Voices he will be busy IRL and low activity today
296 Scum reads Matts pushing lurker pressure as AI
* 718 Logic that lynching Oberon was still good for town even if he was BD
720 Calls Oberon vote Policy
721 Calls Oberon stupid
722 RL Banter
724 RL Banter
726 Voices no reads because D1 is 'chaotic and wishy washy' then FoS Martin
727 FoS MattZed
729 Pokes at DM
* 731 Town reads DW pushing against Unknown FoS
734 Calls Unknown Scum painting DW
* 736 Agrees with Unknown on some points, Reasoning on multiple BD's
737 Logic on Oberon's lack of consideration
* 738 Says Unknown is baiting him into scumpainting deathworlds
740 Logic that if DW was switcher yesterday he probably isnt today
741 Calls D1 an abortion
742 Blames Oberon
747 Doubles down on Oberon blame for D1
748 Self meta as abrasive
749 Reasoning on self meta but IRL
758 Push against me calling Frostbyte an empty slot D1
* 759 Push against me for pointing to Frostbyte justifying themselves.
760 Invalidates my poke at him
761 Claims to be a top 5 poster usually
764 Pushes against my FoS
765 Mocks my vote
767 Points to contribution
769 Points to contribution
771 Pushes hard against throwing soft reads out
772 Clarifys 771
779 Points to contribution
780 Logic on my contribution pressure being shit
781 FoS my Pressure on him
783 Points to contribution
784 Tells me to fuck off
784 FoS my Pressure on him
785 Points to join date
787 Pushes against my FoS
788 Pushes against my FoS
789 Pushes against my FoS
791 FoS my Pressure on him
794 Pushes against my FoS
796 Interaction
797 Interaction
* 798 Voices logic to giving reads helping scum
801 FoS Frinckles
816 Calls me vs him TvT
817 Calls Frinckles 'friend' play too obvious to be scum
851 Banter
852 Promise for future comment
854 Pokes Unknown for reasoning
862 Pokes unknown for stating the obvious
876 Host banter
891 Points out Frinckles gave DM a chance to claim switcher
892 Points to me vs Frost as TvT
893 Fluff
923 Points out BD feedback
946 Points to Deathworlds being switcher based on Naz and Frinckles reveals
948 Logic against Frinckles lying
949 Banter
954 Logic post on Frinckles reasoning
955 Questions DH targeting Frinckles
960 Halarious banter
967 FoS Unknown
971 Voices willingness to vote Unknown
973 Doubles down once again that Oberon deserved to be lynched
978 Logic
1059 FoS Unknown with a Vote
1061 Responds to Matt with reasoning
1069 Banter
1071 Pushes Unknown again
1141 Banter
1147 Logic for DM still being switcher unlikely (Notable that he skips how OoO makes DM switcher impossible)
1165 Rages at people not reading the setup
1168 Pokes Naz
1170 Fluff
1193 Banter
1194 Banter
1120 Banter
1129 Fluff
1238 Banter
1249 Hard logic on pushing the lynch through between DW and DM
1253 Emoji
1259 Banter
1260 Oberon banter
1266 Voices semi obligation to lynch DW while asking for his N1 action
1276 Dedicated to lynch DW while questioning hammer control
1280 Pokes DW for scum reads
1301 Logic on giving time before DW hammer
1389 Logic on DM being Triad
1397 Takes me up on DM = Triad Ghost pepper bet
1406 Voices reasoning for Naz not knowing his role has a Triad and Town type could be feigned
1408 Pushes for time so people can make reads
1409 More pushing on Naz feigned ignorance
1410 More pushing on Naz feigned ignorance
1412 Reasoning for holding back a thought
1410 More pushing on Naz feigned ignorance
1420 Banter
1421 More pushing on Naz feigned ignorance
1423 More pushing on Naz feigned ignorance
1427 Frostbyte also gives 50/50 on DM Triad Flip
1430 Voices that his reads are fluid
1431 Banter
1432 FoS Matt
1439 Banter
1443 Banter
1444 Banter
1446 Banter
1566 Votes Deathworlds
1568 States he is at L1
1577 Responds to Yzb
1583 Banter
1589 Banter
* 1606 Pokes Matt for clarification
* 1628 Pushes that DM is scum with reasoning
1653 Pushes that Naz setup knoledge is conveniently selective
1658 FoS Matt
1663 Banter
1665 Voices Naz is not confirmed
1670 Pushes that DM is likely scum
1676 Doesn’t blame Martin for Oberon lynch
1679 Pushes Yzb
1691 Pushes Yzb
1693 Points to host WIFOM on PR limitations
1695 FoS Matt
1711 Pushes against Yzb
1713 Banter
1715 Pushes Matt
1717 Pushes Matt
1725 Mocks Matt
1726 Pushes Matt
1735 Likes Naz thought process
1738 Banter
1742 Pushes against Matts thinking
1745 Pushes against Matts thinking
1746 Pushes against Matts thinking
1748 FoS Matt
1749 Banter
1761 Pushes Matt
1763 Banter with me
1765 Banter
1767 Clarification
1768 Clarification
1776 Banter with me
1777 Pushing Matt for reasoning
1800 Pushes against mechanically confirmed logic
1823 FoS Yzb
1826 Pushes Yzb
1829 Pushes Matt suggesting he is baiting for Claims
1835 Pushes Matt suggesting he is baiting for Claims
1838 Banter
1840 Calls Matt a Powerwolf
1842 Pushes Matt suggesting he is baiting for Claims
1843 Pushes Matt for half responses
1850 Clarification with Martin
1852 Calls Matt lazy
1853 Pushes Yzb
1863 Pushes against mechanical hunting
1869 Against Mass Claim
1871 Nobody is lock town but Frinckles
1873 Banter
1877 Push against Mechanical hunting
1880 Logic that him and Matt could be TvT
1881 Pushes Yzb
1882 Pushes Yzb
1887 Pushes Yzb
1902 Logic on Frinckles not being bonded
1921 Pokes Matt for reasoning
1959 Pushes against claiming today

TLDR Frostbyte looked good to me.

D2 early reasoning on Oberon looks more like consistent reasoning than excusing now to me now especially in context of everything else he has said. The push that Oberon dug his own hole and probably would have submarined the town looks like a genuine view held by him. In 759 Boldly calling a town lynch 'not bad' is also a really balzy play if he was scum. Theres a potential there that it could be signaling but all the times the thought is echoed throughout the thread its not done with a "Town lynch not bad" view, its more a critical view of Oberons actions independent of the result imo.

In 731, 736, 738 not just pushing scum reads around, open to hearing views and also pushing against scum reads instead of encouraging any hostility presented. Even slightly FoS's Unknown for scum painting with reasoning. I would more expect him as scum not to push hard against what he views as scum painting on a slot he at that time didn't have a town peg. It reflects genuine consideration of what Unknown is communicating.

798 voices consideration for how scum can use others reads to find their team. Very towny perspective for this post. I would not expect a scum Frost to voice such an opinion.

Throughout the DM vs DW his posts felt very town. His reasoning reflected his conviction to stay in between DM and DS and evolved into dedicated DS while poking at how others were handling the situation and pushing the trains for pertinent information such as what DS's night action was and voicing thoughts for Hammer control as soon as that lynch was set.

His D3 interactions with Matt and Yzb look townie from the depth of reasoning and questions asked. I liked that even though he had been pushing hard against Matt for a while his reasoning always matches his confidence and he is always willing to admit to the opposing persons point when he agrees with it while still probing that persons view. For an example:

To be very clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. My gut has DM marked as scum, too. You just seemed very confident in your wording and I want to talk everything out to avoid potential mislynches due to tunneling.

I also do question why he is not pushing myself or Unknown given that he is seemingly scum reading both our peeks?

The thing I liked the most is the overview of his play. He is constantly pushing for pro town direction while making original contributions and offering clearly transparent reads that always seem to have a natural evolution in his posting. One of the critical things I have been looking at this game is if players seem to be providing their true reads or making reads and filtering what they want to feed the town (As I expect a Triad in this setup would do) and this does not seem to be the case at all with him.

I do find how much he pushes against the Mechanical hunting odd. I totally agree with him that were not going to 'solve the game' today with it but it just provides an excellent framework to structure a PoE for us to hunt in.

The most critical issue I have is the refusal to reveal if he is TPR or Cit feels silly given literally every other player in the game has revealed. The only thing it conceals is if Matt is confirmed town by role slots as well as my peek or not. This just does not make sense to me. This is compounded by the fact his words strongly suggest he is a TPR, There is no motivation that makes sense not to reveal if he is Cit. But yet he has to understand that if he is TPR then Matt is mechanically confirmed Town (Unless a town has lied about being a TPR when they are cit which would be a D1 level claim disaster just waiting to happen) So @FrostByte on that bit. This feels like a dichotomy that needs to be sorted (Even if he demands that happen tomorrow instead of today for some reason I have missed)

I could nit pick at a few small things here and there and sometimes think he is reading a bit too hard into things like Naz's lack of setup knowledge, or the way he railed against Matt as 'Baiting claims' while ignoring Renegades very odd reveal timing but I do understand where he is coming from and feel pretty comfortable overall with him. I think a large part of the differences I have with what he is doing is total aversion to the mechanical PoE framework I built and its connection to claims.

[Helz]

Btw. Fuck this websites auto-formatting.

[Helz]

Naz up to 2k
8 "I read half the setup"
9 Banter with RVS vote on Unknown
13 Calls setup chaos
19 Banter
123 Banter
131 Banter
133 Banter
252 Banter with "You guys talk too much"
530 Comments on the high amount of posts
575 Tells people to chut up
612 Tells people to chut up
623 Says she should hammer to shut people up
642 Tells people to chut up
650 Tells people to chut up
658 FoS Dark Magician
676 Pokes Frinckles
687 Mocks Frinckles 'low post scum' read
691 Willing to hammer Oberon if he sticks to BD claim
773 Pushes against Matt's FoS
775 Invalidates my FoS on her
777 Going back to bed
803 Laughs at D1 counter not expired, Votes DM
807 Voices his vote on DM is not sheeping Matt
808 FoS Frinckles
809 Gives reasons for voting DM
819 Pokes Renegade to give thoughts with open speculation questions
887 Banter with Renegade
899 Points out switcher logic
* 941 Reveals Detective feedback that DM visited DW
959 Voices reasoning for thinking this is a TPR heavy setup
981 Logic on DM
1123 Supports TPR claim with logic
1124 Responds to Martin
1126 Logic on DM
1154 Hard claims Detective
1459 Voices reasoning for Switcher to target Scientist? Weird but points to the lack of reading setup signified in his role ignorance as well as the first post
1461 Clarifies he is detective
1462 Banter
1463 Verifies he is playing from his phone
1464 Pushes against Frosts FoS
1465 Pushes against Frosts FoS
1466 Pokes me for not connecting his Iso with his target reasoning
1468 Host question
1484 Responds to YZB
1567 Asks if he can hammer
1575 Calls himself town
1655 Emo response to Bakermir flip
* 1701 Claims night feedback as no movement on Bakemir
1707 Banter
1710 Night action logic
* 1731 Pokes Martin for action feedback with a FoS on me
1770 FoS on Martin
1799 Agrees Frinckles is never a lynch
1973 Wanted a Cit CC, Voices catching up on thread
1993 Banter

I still think her D1 looked bad but I cant say too much of it was particularly AI especially if this is her norm. Some alarming things have come up such as not knowing aspects of her role but its very consistent. Its not like theres 1 thing Naz neglected in the setup, its all over the place over and over and her first post of the game is literally saying she read half the setup. I put value in that simply because it was posted long before the issue came up as opposed to justifying it after the fact.

I do note that when he reveals feedback in post 941 immediately after Frinckles reveals scientist check on DM. This is supported by his earlier posts in the day focusing on DM and his Iso reflecting his consideration for targeting DM. I feel like this is a towny reveal as well as a towny night target. If you look at that period of time in post 809 she has an Iso on DM which is pretty much the only player in the game she does any in depth reading on. I do agree that scum would also have motivation to reveal their night feedback after Frinckles FoS but immediately doing so without taking time to consider makes me feel good about it.

1731 she made a very valid observation I would see coming from a town perspective.

& fwiw, i think whoever claimed butler day 1 is possibly scum - if their butler peek was actually triad it was a way of scum signaling & if it was town it was a way of pocketing. rly smart play. that was helz right?

Scum Naz would probably keep that to themselves and look at me as a potential team mate with that line of thinking. This felt really good to me.

The most alarming thing for me was post 1701 claiming she was tracking Bakermir. It could easily be a hip-shot cover for 'Did anyone see me killing this person? Because if you saw me I was actually watching them.' On that potential I would like to ask @naz what your reasoning was for tracking Bakermir.

[naz]

bro i s2g
including any of day 1 as a read on me is pointless. i was in shitpost mode the entire time since the day ended before 12 hr had even hit on the clock

anyway
i already said why i picked baker, it was bc i have rose colored glasses when it comes to that person so i had no read on him so needed night feedback to get a sense of direction on him
bakermir is my fav person on this site so i have a bias towards keeping him alive regardless of either of our alignments

if yall want to triad read me, fine, since it keeps me alive, but just know I could never be dh because I would never make that kill

[naz]

bc I didn't have a read on him?? lol

this was my answer earlier

[yzb25]

Read through your ISO of frostbyte.

I really don't see the merit in these tiny summaries of every post he's ever vomitted. Your fast assessment of some of his posts is inaccurate / misleading. For example, his "FoS" on me in 1823 and "push" in 1826 seemed like clear sarcasm to me. Furthermore, some things you refer to as "push" are better described as "OMGUS", like his "pushing" of matt.

Your assessment of many moments feels so devoid of context. I can't believe you managed to present him as a humble character always willing to concede when he's wrong by bringing up that time in 1628 at the start of day 3 when he pushed back on matt's reasons for scumreading DM and had to add the caveat because of how niche his position was lmao. That's literally been the exact opposite of his personality this game.

I can't believe your analysis didn't address his extremely reactionary and defensive attitude to every poke he has received. Irrespective of whether you think that's towny or scummy, that's been one of his most defining characteristics over the course of this game. He also gave an explanation / interpretation of his own abrasive nature and what he views to be the advantages of it in mafia. Yet there is no evaluation of whether his self-description of its advantages corroborates with how he's played the game to this point.

[yzb25]

The ISO on naz is fine. As she herself said a lot of her shit isn't even AI. Trying to read her is like trying to glean your future from a horoscope.

[yzb25]

The ISO on naz is fine. As she herself said a lot of her shit isn't even AI. Trying to read her is like trying to glean your future from a horoscope.

I'm maybe a little surprised you didn't look deeper into her mini-argument against DM, which is probably the most substantive thing she has written all game, as far as I can remember. Any read on her town or scummy would probably use that unless it was one of those "one-line moment" kind of reads.

[Helz]

Renegade
3 Greeting
6 Banter
45 Advocating for setup Discussion
50 Logic to switcher using action quickly instead of holding action
70 Banter
79 Fluff
98 Banter on lurker/meta pressure
102 Voices he will play his own way
104 Pokes at Martian not believing his pressure vote on him
111 Logic on Frinckles reasoning to meta pressure him
112 Banter
122 Pokes at Frinckles just adding people to his friends list
124 Mocks friend requesting
127 Pokes at Frinckles just adding people to his friends list
152 Banter
233 Says he will return after looking at my Frinckles FoS
366 Banter reaction to Oberon Switcher claim
373 Banter reaction to Oberon Switcher claim
376 Votes Oberon stating theres no reason not to
* 377 Reaction to Frinckles role claim
415 Reaction to Oberon recanting Switcher claim
421 Play critique
422 FoS Oberon
430 FoS Oberon
444 Pushes FoS Oberon- Lynch dedication
448 Banter
452 Distaste for 'Big brain plays' (FPS)
458 FoS Oberon's OMGUS reaction
466 FoS Oberon's Defence on reasoning in reaction test
471 FoS Dark Magician for defending Oberon
472 Logic on Switcher skipping out (FoS Oberon)
473 Doubles down on 472 (FoS Oberon)
475 More logic on Switcher just switching out (FoS Oberon)
478 Logic to lynch Oberon
481 Mocks Oberon questioning why Scum would let Switcher live
483 Questions if scum know etchother in setup
511 Unvotes Oberon grudgingly
* 514 More logic Oberon will just switch out tommorow with certianty
521 Mocks people for poking at valid points
522 Logic against relying on BD's claiming
546 Blames Oberon
547 FoS Oberon
586 Laughs at Martin's CC on Oberon
589 Votes Oberon describing him as 'back on the menu'
596 FoS Oberon with lynch dedication
604 Advocates against FPS pushing for Oberon votes
606 Yikes @ Oberon suggesting Renegade be looked at
640 Responds to Oberon
646 FoS Oberon
648 Fos Oberon
802 Oops post on Oberon lynch
804 Calls me vs Frost TvT
818 Points at lack of night kill
843 Pokes Naz for contribution in response to being pocked for contribution
844 Claims not to be the switcher today or yesterday
845 Pokes DM's reaction -slight FoS
904 Pokes Martin for night action feedback
909 Tone reads me vs Frost TvT
1027 Reads Frinckles T>S
1030 Logic on DS over DM
1031 Reasoning that DS more likely Switcher given the feedback
* 1037 First post pushing against a FoS on another player
1041 Logic on night actions
1130 Voices Dm vs DW trains siding DW
1132 Clarifys he is not supporting DM, just siding DW over DM
1181 Banter
1213 Pokes at Matt outting Butler claim
1223 Fluff
1282 Pushes DW wagon against MZ when MZ votes DM after DW revaled DM was Triad
1284 Logic on night action bus interference
1287 Pushes hard on DW
1291 Pushes against Matts Logic
1297 Voices that he will scum read anyone not voting DW
1302 Pushes against reasoning to not get DW when Oberon was quick hammered
1306 Pushes against voting DM
1309 Pushes Matt
** 1317 Immediately after Matt voices DW must be lynched today he starts casting shade on the DM FoS
** 1318 More pushing against DM likely Triad
** 1319 More pushing against DM likely Triad
** 1324 More pushing against DM likely Triad
1327 Agrees DM shoulda revealed sooner
1424 Voices 50/50 confidence on DM will flip Triad
1425 Logic
1429 Banter
1594 Mocks Bakermir
1596 States he has no feedback either night
1597 Banter
1600 Logic on gamestate
1688 Logic against 2 BD and 2 Butler in setup
1734 Justifies inactivity
1739 Likes Naz Thought process
1802 Claims locksmith (Felt like there was no reason or benefit to claim it at this time)
1803 Claims he was baited into claiming by Matt (Strange considering Matt was providing him with insulation from the NK )
1806 Good logic on Naz potentially knowing their DH if they are the evil Tracker
1809 Voices they will not vote Frinckles or Marino
1812 FoS on me
1815 Fluff
1817 Voices he targeted Frinckle N2
1818 Banter
1825 Banter
1858 Town reads Martin and Frinckles
1870 FoS me and Matt
1872 Emoji
1876 Calls Martin lock town
** 1879 Voices votting other people than DM
1886 Banter
1888 Pushes for hammer control
1893 Logic on potential night kills
1989 Asks why he would even act if he was Moulder
1990 Clarifies night actions with reasoning
1994 100% willing to eleminate DM
1995 Questions if it was good to telegraph the D3 lynch (Which is odd considering by that logic he fully understood the risks and implications of DM being bonded but still chose not to)

First and foremost I realized that Renegade may be solved for us. From his claims Frinckles can't be bonded if Renegade is town so if lynching DM results in Frinckles death Renegade 100% lied about being on Frinckles D1 and D2 and is scum.

Short of that TLDR: Renegade still looks bad to me. Not quite as bad as I felt last night but by far worse than Naz or FrostByte. This is my top scum read.

Overall I saw a pattern of very few instances of pushing against another players FoS. I would expect this from scum given they want lynches to happen and opposition in the town. There was also a good bit of 'single minded focus' that happened both on Oberon and on DW. Read though his D1 and pretty much every post is trying to cram the lynch through with little consideration to what other players think on the situation. Then once more when DW was on the table almost every post was dedicated to driving that lynch home.

One thing I found particularly scummy was how he was arguing to Matt that he needs to lynch DW after Matt had voted DM, but then the SECOND after Matt explains DW has to be the lynch for the day his focus shifts immediately to throwing shade on the DM case.

Matts 1315:

I think DW is now beyond-a-shadow-of-a-doubt Switcher and needs to be yeeted today.

Renegades 1317:

If a switcher is outed, it is automatically built in that they have to claim they were formally triad so they can buy enough time to switch out again.

Folks I have some lovely time shares I'd like you to take a look at.

Renegades 1318:

Lmfao. DM is likely triad cuz DW said so?

That is the switchers only chance at survival, you realize that right?

Renegades 1319:

I've got a gun to my head! IT WASn'T ME, IT WAS *POINTS FINGER* I SWEAR SHOOT HIM AND LET ME GO!

Renegades 1324:

All I'm saying is, anything DW says today is heavily tainted with the desperation to survive another night and switch out.

Ya'll taking it as gospel. Prosperity gospel at least I hope.

Like.. There was not even a moment before his focus snapped into another gear and he started attacking the reasoning to kill DM today. (And keep in mind this is all after Deathworlds had said:

Whoever was switcher D1 is now a Sorcerer

This pattern continues today with him yet again in post 1879 poking for the possibility to get DM out of his rope:

What is the way around this. We don't have to eliminate DM, we could go for someone else. Very risky, but high reward if you have been bound to DM.

All that aside as I mentioned before I see decent scum motivation in his claimed night actions. N1 he defended the only town role that Triad would have motivation to keep alive (Frinckles), who was also widly scum read. Then N2 he did not lockdown DM's house although in one post he very clearly mentions understanding of the implications of not covering that house:

Ya'll spent a whole day yesterday telegraphing the main d3 lynch target without a drop of wine, maybe not the brightest move once you read the CA rolecard. @Helz

Past that I did not like his reveal. He quotes a potential role list from Matt and just comes out.

I'll simplify this.

I'm the locksmith.

Then he immediately blames Matt for him coming out.

This feels like you're trying to bait TPRs into claiming btw. Not a good look.

Yeah he baited me.

That just felt strange. Especially given Matt had positioned himself to provide WIFOM cover for Renegade claiming either Locksmith or Cit to insulate the locksmith from a night kill. I would expect a town locksmith to recognize someone is covering their ass instead of throwing that cover away.

All of that aside its not 100% bad. Post 1037 I could see being in line with him viewing as Frinckles town for a night target. He has also consistently insisted protecting Frinckles was important although I totally disagree with the logic. And in contrast to D1 he did really seem to question between DM and DW before dedicating to DW (Where as in D1 he refused to see anything other than Oberons flip). There was still tunnel vision but it was not absurd certainty like it was in D1.

Anyways. This is still my top scum read after DM flips. It may self resolve but I am pretty confident I am onto something with this player.

[Helz]

Read through your ISO of frostbyte.

I really don't see the merit in these tiny summaries of every post he's ever vomitted. Your fast assessment of some of his posts is inaccurate / misleading. For example, his "FoS" on me in 1823 and "push" in 1826 seemed like clear sarcasm to me. Furthermore, some things you refer to as "push" are better described as "OMGUS", like his "pushing" of matt.

Your assessment of many moments feels so devoid of context. I can't believe you managed to present him as a humble character always willing to concede when he's wrong by bringing up that time in 1628 at the start of day 3 when he pushed back on matt's reasons for scumreading DM and had to add the caveat because of how niche his position was lmao. That's literally been the exact opposite of his personality this game.

I can't believe your analysis didn't address his extremely reactionary and defensive attitude to every poke he has received. Irrespective of whether you think that's towny or scummy, that's been one of his most defining characteristics over the course of this game. He also gave an explanation / interpretation of his own abrasive nature and what he views to be the advantages of it in mafia. Yet there is no evaluation of whether his self-description of its advantages corroborates with how he's played the game to this point.

I am not sure what you expect. This was a full in context Iso followed by structuring it into a Iso for a summary and then providing some thoughts that stuck out to me. If you want to critique the tiny label I put on every single post# you will find a fuck ton more than just 1826 to split hares on.

He is not humble and I don't see what is AI one way or the other on that. I specifically take note when someone is in a conflicted argument with another player but is also still willing to say "You have a point here." I find that very specifically to be a scum tell and in my experience Scum are much more prone to just say "Everything you say is wrong, period."

I also do not find personality and defensiveness to be a reliable tell. Its different when they are hyper-aware to pressure attacking anything anyone mentions in passing that could point to them being scum but I did not see that in him. If you feel there is some meta significance to that feel free to point it out but keep in mind this is probably the first game I have ever played with the guy.

I did take particular note when he described himself as abrasive. I honestly laughed and thought to myself he is quite a bit like me in a few ways with that reasoning. Once again- I dont see anything AI in it. If you do then bring up how you see it points to his alignment. You see things differently than me.

I still see the most critical issues with him being that he seems to scum read you and Matt while not pushing Me or Unknown. Like.. he did push Unknown a good bit but sense we have 2 Butler claims he has not ~focused either of us.
That and the dichotomy between his role claim and his FoS on Matt. He is seemingly a TPR by attitude of refusal to reveal which would make Matt a confirmed Citizen yet he is still pushing Matt. But then if he is a Citizen why on earth would he hide that when every other player in the game has claimed?

^Those two things are what I take issue with. Outside of that his play this game feels town to me. Feel free to point out anything else you believe I have missed but dont expect perfection from me. I really pushed these Iso's out in a few hours and a chunk of them I was forced to look through a phone screen. They are honestly secondary to me wanting to tear through a read of You and Unknown in context which will undoubtedly take a few more hours.

[Helz]

I'm maybe a little surprised you didn't look deeper into her mini-argument against DM, which is probably the most substantive thing she has written all game, as far as I can remember. Any read on her town or scummy would probably use that unless it was one of those "one-line moment" kind of reads.

Fair point. I probably should have.

My biggest AI tell was her 1731. Pointing out how a Butler peek could be signaling felt like a strong town indicator. I would 100% expect no scum to ever mention that especially considering nobody else had thought of it.

[yzb25]

I am not sure what you expect. This was a full in context Iso followed by structuring it into a Iso for a summary and then providing some thoughts that stuck out to me. If you want to critique the tiny label I put on every single post# you will find a fuck ton more than just 1826 to split hares on.

Well, you could have just said "sarcastic dig at Mattzed" or "shitpost roasting mattzed" or something but that's besides the point. I'm not critiquing the execution, I'm critiquing the approach itself. I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by writing a <5 word summary of every post he's ever written. How does that in any way help you or anyone else to develop reads or solve the game?

He is not humble and I don't see what is AI one way or the other on that. I specifically take note when someone is in a conflicted argument with another player but is also still willing to say "You have a point here." I find that very specifically to be a scum tell and in my experience Scum are much more prone to just say "Everything you say is wrong, period."

I'm saying that your read on that quote in your ISO makes no acknowledgement of context:

I... I've said this many times but I'll say it again

1. Being a town former-switcher and casting shade ON THE TOWN WHO KNOWS YOU WERE SWITCHER is incredibly scummy. Why would town DM support a Frinckles train AT ALL when DM knows Frinckles had a valid lead?
2. Why didn't DM confess who he made into Switcher if his new role was town?
3. Why did DW hammer D1 so early and with so little consideration if he was town then?

1. That's a good point. When he was arguing with Frinckles though everything wasn't out in the open yet. He could've been grasping on to the story that he had never been switcher
2. He did later and we lynched them. The timing was sus as fuck but it's feasible that he was still trying to figure out how he could get a switcher solo win, like he said
3. Hammering early in this setup isn't inherently scummy. It's possible he did that in order to stop scum from finding each other. There are lots of ways for town to mechanically prove their roles with this setup so scumhunting might be less necessary for town than it is for scum. I'm not super confident about the logic there because I've been overanalyzing whether early d1 hammer was beneficial for town or not but after a couple irl days this is the conclusion my brain feels happy with

To be very clear, I'm not saying you're wrong. My gut has DM marked as scum, too. You just seemed very confident in your wording and I want to talk everything out to avoid potential mislynches due to tunneling.

It wasn't an example of him midway through a dialogue saying "but I acknowledge your points have value and I may be wrong". It was him casting doubt on Matt's bullet-point summary of why DM is 99% scum and effectively nuance-trolling him. At the end of it, he basically had to append it with "I'm not saying you're wrong I'm just playing devil's advocate in case we missed something here". His post was a meek defense of an extremely scummy player. If Renegade made that post, you would have rightfully called it scummy af.

I also do not find personality and defensiveness to be a reliable tell. Its different when they are hyper-aware to pressure attacking anything anyone mentions in passing that could point to them being scum but I did not see that in him. If you feel there is some meta significance to that feel free to point it out but keep in mind this is probably the first game I have ever played with the guy.

I did take particular note when he described himself as abrasive. I honestly laughed and thought to myself he is quite a bit like me in a few ways with that reasoning. Once again- I dont see anything AI in it. If you do then bring up how you see it points to his alignment. You see things differently than me.

I have also never played with him before, only skimmed Undercover like you. However, I've known players that use aggression and rudeness as a part of their scumhunting. I am familiar with the supposed advantages of it in shocking a scum into freezing, bringing out a difficult-to-fabricate-moment in indiginant towns, among other things. But that is just not how he is using his persona. He is using it largely defensively to OMGUS anyone who pushes him and, in spite of his abrasive nature, playing a surprisingly passive game - as can be seen with how tentatively he disagreed with mattzed for example.

[/QUOTE=Helz]I still see the most critical issues with him being that he seems to scum read you and Matt while not pushing Me or Unknown. Like.. he did push Unknown a good bit but sense we have 2 Butler claims he has not ~focused either of us.
That and the dichotomy between his role claim and his FoS on Matt. He is seemingly a TPR by attitude of refusal to reveal which would make Matt a confirmed Citizen yet he is still pushing Matt. But then if he is a Citizen why on earth would he hide that when every other player in the game has claimed?

^Those two things are what I take issue with. Outside of that his play this game feels town to me. Feel free to point out anything else you believe I have missed but dont expect perfection from me. I really pushed these Iso's out in a few hours and a chunk of them I was forced to look through a phone screen. They are honestly secondary to me wanting to tear through a read of You and Unknown in context which will undoubtedly take a few more hours.[/QUOTE]

He has not, in my memory, expressed a particular scumread on me. But I agree many of his actions don't make strategic sense from a towny POV. Anyway, I acknowledge you have your priorities and you're in a 1v1 rn. Just voicing my reactions.

[yzb25]

Also, I agree trying to format is a massive pain in the ass with this interface. My formatting has also been awful lol

[yzb25]

When I describe his play as "passive", I mean passive in the context of his personality, just to be clear.

[Helz]

Well, you could have just said "sarcastic dig at Mattzed" or "shitpost roasting mattzed" or something but that's besides the point. I'm not critiquing the execution, I'm critiquing the approach itself. I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by writing a <5 word summary of every post he's ever written. How does that in any way help you or anyone else to develop reads or solve the game?

Theres a few reasons I do this. For one I read a study a long time ago spelled out how writing engages a different part of the brain than thinking. It made a lot of sense to me and even prior to reading that I use to just ramble in a journal about some stuff in my head because I found I could make structured connections in a way I couldn't just by thinking.
Another part is that its a reference point. Whenever I go to summarize my read I can look back and figure out roughly where the post was if I want to quote it or dig back through an interaction at that time.
It also helps me with quantification. Wayy back before I even thought up macro-meta crunching I had been trying to use rough trends to identify patterns. I still do that today and I find it extremely telling in some circumstances. My biggest 'sneak' these days is aversion in association tells. It can be borderline game breaking to break down a powerwolfs interactions with others and find he has tons of interactions... except- with his team mates. That sort of thing works on even the best of players because they will have to avoid talking with their less skilled teammates or risk awkward interactions that stand out / pressuring their fellow wolf in ways they can't handle.

I'm saying that your read on that quote in your ISO makes no acknowledgement of context:

It wasn't an example of him midway through a dialogue saying "but I acknowledge your points have value and I may be wrong". It was him casting doubt on Matt's bullet-point summary of why DM is 99% scum and effectively nuance-trolling him. At the end of it, he basically had to append it with "I'm not saying you're wrong I'm just playing devil's advocate in case we missed something here". His post was a meek defense of an extremely scummy player. If Renegade made that post, you would have rightfully called it scummy af.

Yeah, I probably should have quoted the entire thing instead of just that part. I grabbed that quote because it reflected the range of what I was talking about to include "His D3 interactions with Matt and Yzb look townie from the depth of reasoning and questions asked." I was more making statements in general and using that specific bit as an example.

I have also never played with him before, only skimmed Undercover like you. However, I've known players that use aggression and rudeness as a part of their scumhunting. I am familiar with the supposed advantages of it in shocking a scum into freezing, bringing out a difficult-to-fabricate-moment in indiginant towns, among other things. But that is just not how he is using his persona. He is using it largely defensively to OMGUS anyone who pushes him and, in spite of his abrasive nature, playing a surprisingly passive game - as can be seen with how tentatively he disagreed with mattzed for example.

I will keep an eye on that. I personally have tried to move away from using offensive methods. I use to be a big fan of it but even when I got that tell that nailed a scum I always just felt bad about it post game. Maybe outright winning just isnt as important to me as the experience these days?

He has not, in my memory, expressed a particular scumread on me. But I agree many of his actions don't make strategic sense from a towny POV. Anyway, I acknowledge you have your priorities and you're in a 1v1 rn. Just voicing my reactions.

Oh I am in no rush. I am probably not going to start messing with the you/unknown thing for quite a while. The weather is beautiful in Texas today and doing those 3 Iso's was draining. I also need to really consider how this changes my view of where the scum are given the conclusions I drew in those reads. While doing them it also occurred to me when I came across the post I pretended to not recognize Butler is switch immune that the role placement makes no sense for that reason for two butters to exist. The claimed peeks in an alignment flipping games I could accept but 2 out of the 8 town being switch immune makes the 3 switches win condition absurd. I don't like going into a read with my mind made up the player is already scum and thats where I am at in my head right now, that Unknown has to be scum for things to make sense. It would just make me tear through his posts and make an argument to him being scum instead of being open minded and considering every potential. I get we are widely viewed as being in a 1v1 but I would kinda rather die than vomit some contrived persuasive argument for self preservation. I might make an argument for why I am town first simply because between everything I have done this game, this DM flip and if I turn out right on Renegade its getting a little absurd to scum read me imo. At some point doing so just points to the scum (Such as if someone were to right now push to lynch Frinckles.)

But anyways. I will be relaxing for a while and popping in and out so feel free to throw whatever at me if you have something on your mind. Its pretty relaxing to know we have another half day, night, and then 2 more days before the lynch has to be decided so theres not really any rush and everyone should have enough time to hunt to their hearts content.

[Dark Magician]

Actually I don’t mind being thrown up on lynch, because if the CA targeted me last night then there is a chance a real Traid dies.