But this does seem slightly risky to do.
The strat scum could be employing is to shoot the sheep. A lion cant find against two wolves if he doesnt have a group of sheep to trample them. Scum can coordinate a lynch on a town mouthpiece once all the townies that are following are gone, making it easier for confirmed towns to be lynched, and harder for scum, who may become more overt as the game goes on, to get lynched. Renegade followed popular opinion, not forming it.
https://imgur.com/a/NqMwElZ fuck it heres all the sc2mafia pics i would have put in the sig
We lynch a scum. That isn't a mislynch. If im scum then I kill 1 person tonight. That still leaves 1 mafia against 4 towns. And it'll take at 2 mislynches to lose at that point. It might even be worth lynching me.
Oh and @Helltanis , the town is going to need your participation. You've been inactive for a fair bit and we'll need your contribution to the discussions if you can do that. I would understand if you're very busy, but if you are please try to give an estimate as to when you're not busy and will be able to contribute.
1) Itís a real claim. Grak and bakemir are both town.
2) Grak is a fakeclaiming scum, and bakemir is town. In this case Grak is just trying to claim a power role to take heat off himself.
3) Grak is scum and trying to clear both himself and his scum partner.
4) some insane bullshit where Grak is vanilla town fakeclaiming a power role like Zedus was.
Iím trying to hold all 4 possibilities in my head as I read and assess what is plausible in those scenarios.
For the sake of argument, lets assume Auwt and I are Scum.
D2: We lynch Auwt. He flips scum.
N2: I kill a townie
D3: With 5 players left, and 1 mafia left, this means its 4v1.
Since mafia need this to win (according to setup): "Mafia: Have 1 Mafia alive and eliminate all Town & Neutral Evil."
This means we can afford to mislynch 1 more time, then we get to Lylo, where if there is a 2nd mislynch, the remaining mafia (me) kills the last townie (I had to correct my statement a bit here).
So, ideally, if you're worried about me, we can afford the mislynch on me:
D3: Martin is lynched. He flips mafia.
This means we win.
However, if i'm town, then:
N3: Mafia kills a townie
D4: We're down to 3 players. Two of them are town. One of them mafia. It's Lylo.
However, if we don't lynch a mafia member today (D2), then:
N2: One of two mafias kill.
N3: 5 players are left. Two of them are mafia, 3 of them are town. In for town to win, they would have to win a Lylo situation twice in a row.
So, because of this situation above, if you truly believe that I am scum team with Auwt, then I suggest you lynch Auwt first.
Alternatively, we could lynch me first. But since I know I am town (and in a past post I admitted I am citizen for the sake of arguing reasonable concern about Auwt's citizen guesses), I can't really say lynch me today because then the next day we'll be at Lylo. And next suspect I imagine would indeed by Auwt, and if he's somehow town after all that indirect power hunting....it's game over for us.
I gotta say Iím really thrown by your professed (relative) willingness to be lynched yourself. If you are scum youíre playing a really ballsy game.
Like this could all be a push to get Auwt mislynched, and then you sacrifice yourself in lylo and your still-hidden partner goes on to win in f3... but as I said, ballsy.
I really struggle with you Martin. I swing from being certain youíre scum to being in all kinds of doubt and conflict over it and then I swing back again. Itís killing me.
So are you, as a townie, saying you are willing to be mislynched as long as Auwt goes down too? Your confidence in your scum read of him is that strong?
It can't be you (well technically it can as a possibility, but my sense of probability says its impossible)
I feel it can't be Bakermir given the Zedus debacle, and that Auwt is trying to push him. I just don't see any good partners for him (unless helltanis).
Helltanis is the wildcard here. He could be a bad afk townie or not. But his initial posts seemed authentic to me in terms of being absolutely new to Mafia. Also he was voted for by Grak once (who is among my suspicions)
Dallarian could be scum, but if he were it's likely he would be teamed with Helltanis I feel. Plus it just seems like Auwt and Dallarian just cannot be of the same alignment at times, though this is sort of a gut feeling.
In terms of evidence for scum, I only see it being strong enough for Grak and Auwt. Townies, like me, can and/or have made mistakes. I feel the others, for their suspicious activities, either were just mistakes or simply disagreements on playstyle.
So yes, i'd be willing to be mislynched the next day if Auwt is flipped scum. And with me out of the picture on Lylo, I hope you can lead the rest of the town to the lynching of Auwt's most likely scum teamate. (Which, for me, is Grak).
Iím trying to think of a reason, in a scum Grak/town bakemir world, why they would claim a green check on bakemir specifically.
One possible answer is to discredit the person who has been pushing that slot the hardest, which is obviously Auwt. So with Martinís planned, concerted push on Auwt, thereís an argument for a Grak/Martin team. I donít know how plausible that world is, considering how day one went, but still.
However thereís another player that came in with an intent to cast doubt on Auwt and thatís Dallarian. He then dipped and allowed the loud voices of myself and Martin to take over but... maybe weíre all three just townies being manipulated into fighting each other and the real team is Grak/Dallarian.
That feels a bit reachy, but Dallarian has been flying under the radar a lot after what seemed like a strong start and his reads have been pretty inconsistent...
And then thereís Helltanis who still hasnít even posted today. Gah.
Thereís too many possibilities to consider and my brain is frying. I need some way to rule out some worlds.
There is also the option of lynching no one today, in which case mafia kill one person.
It'll be 6 players, 2 mafia and 4 town. It'll be MyLo, and you can skip that too, where mafia will kill again, but the next day will be Lylo.
Drizzt will be able to catch up to speed by mid D2. That way we can have discussions with him.