Well im going to go to sleep. See yall IRL tomorrow. Its been fun playing so far!
Alright if Martin gotta go, I will go too. I gotta cook up something for myself so don't be surprised if I go quiet for the next hour or two.
And for the record, I may say obvious things just to verify something is true that you guys take for granted. If I stay quiet I won't learn.
Okay, Iíve been debating doing this for a while, but Iíve finally decided itís the right move. I hope Iím right.
I am a power role. I will not reveal which one at this time, for reasons.
I would like our remaining power role to also openly claim, please. If no one does, then we know that myself, Grak, and Bakemir are confirmed town and the two mafia are within the group of Auwt, Martin, Drizzt, and Dallarian. If someone does claim, we will have two groups of players, 3 in one and 4 in the other, that can only contain one scum each. That will help us rule in and out possible worlds much more easily.
And I guess in the weirdo world where there are two more claims, we will have three confirmed citizens.
If we lynch a citizen today, then 2 maf, 4 town on day 3. There will be atleast one power role leads. Should we mislynch on day 3, its LYLO on day 4.
If we lynch a scum today, then 1 maf, 4 town on day 3. With the mafia found, and compound that with atleast one power role lead, it will be easier to find the teammate and finish the game.
If we lynch a town power, refer to scenario one, but with less power role leads.
How easy would it be to lynch correctly today if the second power role reveals themselves, and will they likely survive the night?
In fact, lets narrow it down a little bit further, are you a protective or an investigative? NO need for exact role.
I have a hard time reading Grakís post as anything but a scum trying to convince the last TPR to stay hidden so he wonít be exposed, but I guess we need to wait and see.
If you are a protective and you reveal now you would understandably take the hit from mafia, allowing me, the investigative, to check one sus player. And if mafia decides to hit me, you would, hopefully, be on my ass and save me.
And if you are an investigative... then I suppose we go on the same guy. One of us will get hit, but the other will live to tell the tale.
Me asking what kind of power role are you is the OPPOSITE of convincing you to stay hidden. I basically switched from "stay hidden" to "on second thought..." in the same post.
Based on the claims;
Dallarian soft claimed investigative/power
Grakylan openly claim detective/vanguard
Ash openly claim power
Renegade = dead town power
There should be at least one mafia in Ash/Grakylan/Dallarian
Other one is in Bakermir/Martin/Auwt/Drizzt
I am still waiting on Dallarian to give us something so I can continue analyzing this.
^ this is subject to change if any of Bakermir/Martin/Auwt/Drizzt claims power.
Grakylan can be a consig too. Forgot to add that.
But who am I kidding. Everything is crystal clear anyway.
Dallarian/Martin was a thing from #77 and onwards. Auwt on #154 laid the seed and this turned into Dallarian/Martin + Auwt + Grakylan + Helltanis as the time passed. Zedus was lynched based on this artificial town these people created.
How did Auwt figure out Martin from the beginning? How did he also figure out Renegade? Why was he so aggressive with me when I was away? He believed I was scum buddying Zedus(townie) but this again conflicts with his #154 where Zedus was big scum.
Grakylan day 1 followed Auwt's #154 to the end. His change in votes was very questionable at EOD1 and Auwt's afk with a vote on me at EOD1.
Did Grakylan hesitated to vote me instead? Because he was going all "yea yea lets put bakermir on lynch or put him under inspection"
This is so weird. I take it that he believes Auwt is truly town. BUt I want to ask @Grakylan the important question here;
Who would you lynch from the two? if it was 1vs2 scenario Bakermir or Auwt
It's a good question of which my answer would probably change as D2 progresses.
As it stands now, Auwt gives off a bunch of vibes that either say "im town" or "im scum trying really hard to be town". While you are most likely a citizen.
Let me dispel the fiction that Auwt and I are the scum team. I would lynch Auwt as it stands now unless things develop not necessarily to your favor.
Imagine a game in the mod, and I'm scum. Usually I try to take control of the sheep and get them to mislynch. And if I'm town its 50/50 either I do that "lead the sheep" strat or I lay low if I don't wanna get hit.
And considering how withdrawn I was D1, you could probably take a guess.
He could also be a non-visiting mafia role. We don't know what the mafia roles specifically are.
There's bigger targets out there right now.
Look, that question you asked me was a loaded question.
If I answered Auwt, you would say that shit.
But if I answered bakemir, you would probably start pushing the Auwt/Grakylan scum team agenda.
And if I refused to answer, it would look really sus for me.
Ash - null. Asks loaded trap questions, criticizes one guy for random voting while ignoring another doing the same thing. He did claim a power role, and with no third power role claim at the moment, it may be a risk to lynch him.
Dallarian - scum. He was aggro, cryptic, and not direct with his answers.
Auwt - strong town lean. Reads list is more nuanced and better matches the current situation, and also suggest that hes not scum by the way hes reading the less active people.
Martin - scum leaning. His posts do give credence, but has lately accused Auwt of power hunting.... although Auwt is a pretty good town read right now. His high quality posts, often distracting and sometimes going off the rails, could be a front. Not to mention use of AtE in SoD1 (debate me on this if you may)
Helltenis/Drizzt - town leaning. cant analyze drizzt yet but hes already testing Martin and is a quick responder to questions, so theres a point to him for that. I already ISO'd helltenis at the bottom of page 39 and concluded hes most likely citizen.
bakermir - town leaning. I did check this guy and he didnt visit anyone. Hes most likely citizen.
Dallarian is definitely scum. The question is if his partner is Ash or Martin. It could even be bakermir or Drizzt, although unlikely.
But if there was an out for that auwt vs bakermir situation, I would pick neither if that was an option.
Oh and before yall go "if auwt is strong town lead why would you lynch him?" because when I said that it was a response to Ash's question which specifies if Auwt and bakermir were the only targets to lynch. With our current selection outside the paremeters of Ash's question, I would not lynch bakermir or Auwt as it stands now. Don't get fooled so easily.
Sorry, not ash's question. bakermir's question. my bad. Fuck.
Guess that says a lot about my bias.
I mean, anybody could have claimed "bakermir didn't do any action"
I can also claim now hey guys Martin didn't take any action. If Martin says yes then how would that look to rest of you guys?
So according to Grakylan's lead;
I could be a mafia member that didn't do any action. This would indicate I am a scum power role but creating a citizen image.
That would expand the power roles list to; Ash/Dallarian/Renegade/Grakylan/Bakermir
Any more power role claims or reads?
There is still a chance that his night action could be constructed as a bait for me to bite and all of this is false. It takes 1 claim from me to change everything in your game grakylan. but don't worry i am doing my best to not throw here.
all of this is making me ease on grakylan in general but there is still a chance he constructed all of this. maybe a mentor in works?
I will stop overthinking.
IF you think I am not mafia member but citizen as grakylan says, and lets assume that is true, then that would confirm me and grakylan as town. Then we would have to look at Ash/Dallarian/Martin/Auwt/Drizzt and start eliminating.
Dallarian still haven't given us any power input despite his soft claim so far.
Unless Grakylan is a liar about his power role and night action, voting him up wouldn't make sense if we were to be objective. but speaking of Grakylan, whom i had scum vibes entire game makes it really difficult for me to trust his leads.
I feel like I don't get enough town vibes from Grakylan. I have a feeling he would vote me out in a Bakermir vs anybody else. I have felt that he was ready to vote me out yesterday but he went with the flow and re voted Zedus. that's the biggest scum play right there. This is why I also believe his night lead is constructed on the artificial town Auwt created at #154.
@Grakylan , I know this sounds a lot like interrogation but please excuse my tone. I am just trying to make sense of things and I am trying to share my train of thought. Don't take my posts as attacks to your town cred.
Out of everyone, were there any reasons why did you invest me?
Was this because Auwt called me and Zedus evil?
What made you believe if I was going to visit someone or not?
Why did you ask me earlier about Dallarian's indication of power?
Why didn't you invest him instead?
I don't know really..
I won't discard Auwt/Grakylan combo, but I am open to look at other possibilities.
2. The earlier laying low + people reading you as scum or null made me check you. Ofc at this point you not visiting will 90% mean citizen, and you visiting will be either scum or TPR (50/50 after renegade dies)
3. I asked about Dallarian earlier since he seemed to have soft claimed, but the main thing is that Dallarian I believe is most likely scum due to his scummy aggro and dodging of questions, with not much town-like traits that can balance out the scum read to a slight lean or null like it did for Martin.
4. I submitted my night action like as soon as night began then just let it rest for the next 24 hours cuz it was a nice reprieve from otherwise having to check this thread every so often. Kind of a bad play to be honest. I wanted to verify the scum reads of the majority first before I decide to pursue Dallarian. You gotta remember that you only became a town lean from me because of the lead I got that night. Otherwise you would still seem null or worse from my POV.
Hi, I have some questions for you.
When you soft claimed a power role earlier, what did you hope to achieve with that claim.
Are you a power role?
If so, would you feel comfortable specifying if its an investigative or a protective? (no exact role, that would be TOO much to ask for.)
Yeah, Dallarian left a vote on Zedus entire Day One until EOD1, this was supported by Auwt starting from #154, followed by rest of you guys. HOwever, Auwt claimed that he also noticed Zedus toned down and shown strong signs of town.
However, Auwt didn't voice this when he was active on Day One. He instead kept a vote on me.
It is safe to say Auwt would be the first one I would vote here. But then, he confirms you and suggests to look at Ash/Martin/Dallarian.
Your theory on Dallarian is a possibility too. Leaving a vote on Zedus, soft claiming power but giving no input for day two. That is all suspicious.
I wish Dallarian gave us something. I am still having trouble getting anything out of him and Drizzt/Helltanis slot. Well Dallarian the most.
I was the one going against the flow on a townie train + I was(is idk) a strong town figure D1, as you were.
With that in mind going on either of you or me is kinda hard.
The second argument is the reason why I believe they didnt go on you, Ash.
I dont believe the Martin against Zedus fight D1 fed you in the right way. So please.
I'm more likely to build up strong post than do little post to feed pages.
This behaviour has a little bit changed since its D2, and a lot of thing have happened.
I'm trying my hardest right now to answer every post I see.
If Dallarian doesn't clear his name, we could lynch him at EoD. I will risk dying regardless if Dallarian is scum or not, but by then you will know I wasn't lying... and you better hope you can handle a Lylo if Dallarian isn't scum.
We will figure this out tomorrow, I promise. Good night.
Considering this, Grakylan COULDNT be the one to act the kill for Mafia otherwhise he wouldnt have found you not moving last night, in case he is scum.
Basicaly with this setup, I'm really willing to wait for power role, from each side, to speak up.
The one who killed Renegade will either have a role that hasnt any LW / that will be covered by his scum team mate/ that have a role which cannot be proven (such as doc for instance.)
Ash, Dallarian we all know you are powers, I do not ask you to reveal your roles (but you could).
But please answer the question : Can your role be proven, and have you find anything useful to make the game progress in any direction?
The only edit to post #800 was a change in size of the last paragraph
Editing is not allowed. No matter what reason you have.
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