S-FM 180 Simple Arsonist

[Sen]

-vote Frog

So he can get salty in two games at the same time.

[Helz]

I should point out that Sen is at L1. Be careful with your votes.

[Calix]

Tbh I'm not 100% willing to go with Sen for a D1 lynch. The Arsonist would know that they everyone else won't be notified of dousings. I'm not sure if he would make such a slip.

I saw it as the usual Day 1 trolling shenanigans by saying something provocative. Not worth a vote imo.

[RLVG]

I should point out that Sen is at L1. Be careful with your votes.

Hm, I think Sen is L-1 but I'm not sure. Can you verify that?

[Helz]

Tiny thoughts so far-

Frog- Came to play with a plan. I like his initial approach and am inclined to say leaning town from meta there. But on the other hand he put Sen to L1 quickly.

Sen- Has voiced multiple things already that easily fit the perspective of the arsonist. We can slap on as much WIFOM as you want with that to say "Is it too stupid to be a slip/Arson would be more careful"

RLVG- The guy is next to impossible to read. We can only win the game by reading players and following through with a lynch so I immediately have a bias to eliminate him. If he is the arsonist I am not confident that I would ever be able to piece it out given my knowledge of the player. I could show how a thing or two he has already said could come from a scum perspective but he always looks scummy as hell as a town player anyways.

[Sen]

To be fair, doing this (lynching at random as soon as the day starts without even talking) wouldn't be the worst strategy. Of course, that would be boring.

And yeah, that was totally a slip. We all know I do that all the time.

[TheDarkestLight]

-vote RLVG

Best to get rid of the hard to read players first.

[RLVG]

-vote RLVG

Best to get rid of the hard to read players first.

RLVG- The guy is next to impossible to read.

[Calix]

Vote Count 1 - I'm considering this the RVS with some legitimate votes

Frog (1 [L-3]):
Sen
Sen (2 [L-2]):
Frog, Helz
Helz (1 [L-3]):
Calix
RLVG (1 [L-3]):
TheDarkestLight

[Sen]

Best to get rid of the hard to read players first.

I think you're one of the few who understands how utterly futile d1 reads are, let alone page 1 reads. What are you reading?

[TheDarkestLight]

I think you're one of the few who understands how utterly futile d1 reads are, let alone page 1 reads. What are you reading?

Basically this game is just day one over and over again.

[Sen]

Basically this game is just day one over and over again.

Indeed.

[TheDarkestLight]

Basically this game is just day one over and over again.

Which suggests that we need to at least try to work out some form of day one reads from all this as considering the optimal arsonist strategy we're not really going to get anywhere via night actions save maybe a confirmed town for a single day, and even if he is confirmed the next to die is the only one with the night action.

This game is nothing but reading and we need to lynch players that are traditionally hard to read first.

[Helz]

I completely disagree. D1 reads are extremely possible. If this were not the case full citizen games would have matching win ratios with randomized results. They do not.

[Helz]

Which suggests that we need to at least try to work out some form of day one reads from all this as considering the optimal arsonist strategy we're not really going to get anywhere via night actions save maybe a confirmed town for a single day, and even if he is confirmed the next to die is the only one with the night action.

This game is nothing but reading and we need to lynch players that are traditionally hard to read first.

If that is the case why do you want to lynch RLVG as opposed to me? And I do believe that conversation has been productive so far.

[TheDarkestLight]

If that is the case why do you want to lynch RLVG as opposed to me? And I do believe that conversation has been productive so far.

Because I struggle to read RLVG in games.

[Sen]

This game is nothing but reading and we need to lynch players that are traditionally hard to read first.

Isn't that like... everyone?

Plus it's entirelly arbitrary. We might as well lynch whoever we would pick as the Arsonist if we were the host.
Not that I'm against arbitrary actions in this setup, but I don't see why this particular arbitrary strategy would be better than any other.

[RLVG]

Because I struggle to read RLVG in games.

And I struggle to read you.

Capice?

[Sen]

I completely disagree. D1 reads are extremely possible. If this were not the case full citizen games would have matching win ratios with randomized results. They do not.

The key is that said games have a scum pairing. This one doesn't allow for scum interaction analysis based on flips, since a single scum flip here would be gg.

[Calix]

I sense there's a chance that the discussion will be downgraded to a pointless policy debate over wherever day one reads are good. I'm just going to warn against that now. Can we not do that and just approach the day according to the strategy that we, as individuals, think is best instead of having a policy discussion that cannot be town/ scum read? (thus making it NULL and POINTLESS)

I am starting to think that RLVG is going to be the low-hanging fruit of this game due to his usual playstyle, regardless of his role.

[Frog]

-vote Frog

So he can get salty in two games at the same time.

I'm spending more time in the other game. Sorry.

[NoctiZ]

The key is that said games have a scum pairing. This one doesn't allow for scum interaction analysis based on flips, since a single scum flip here would be gg.

True, but these games aren't won by observing scum's interactions, they're won by lynching one scum and then analyzing connections afterwards. We'd only have to do the first step.

[RLVG]

I am starting to think that RLVG is going to be the low-hanging fruit of this game due to his usual playstyle, regardless of his role.

I'm fine with a lynch if all I am is a distraction through the whole game, a limelight and a constant discussion wether to lynch or not, which just breaks regular conversations.

With that said, let's try to pressure some random fuck.

[Sen]

I am starting to think that RLVG is going to be the low-hanging fruit of this game due to his usual playstyle, regardless of his role.

There's no low-hanging fruit here. The setup literally prohibits it.

I'm spending more time in the other game. Sorry.

That's cool. Everyone noticed you placing me at L-1 on page one.

[Helz]

The key is that said games have a scum pairing. This one doesn't allow for scum interaction analysis based on flips, since a single scum flip here would be gg.

I do not think those things are needed to scum hunt.

I sense there's a chance that the discussion will be downgraded to a pointless policy debate over wherever day one reads are good. I'm just going to warn against that now. Can we not do that and just approach the day according to the strategy that we, as individuals, think is best instead of having a policy discussion that cannot be town/ scum read? (thus making it NULL and POINTLESS)

I am starting to think that RLVG is going to be the low-hanging fruit of this game due to his usual playstyle, regardless of his role.

What has caught your eye so far in this game? Any thoughts on any of the players so far?

[Calix]

True, but these games aren't won by observing scum's interactions, they're won by lynching one scum and then analyzing connections afterwards. We'd only have to do the first step.

I disagree with your premise that no connections can be made, ESPECIALLY if Arsonist ignites one player at a time.

I'm fine with a lynch if all I am is a distraction through the whole game, a limelight and a constant discussion wether to lynch or not, which just breaks regular conversations.

With that said, let's try to pressure some random fuck.

If you know you will be a distraction, why do you not change your posting style to avoid being lynched? Not saying this is scummy (actually it's more town-like imo) but I can't see the logic in continuing to use a scummy playstyle.

[RLVG]

If you know you will be a distraction, why do you not change your posting style to avoid being lynched? Not saying this is scummy (actually it's more town-like imo) but I can't see the logic in continuing to use a scummy playstyle.

A leopard can't change the spots of their pelt.

My playstyle is more like how I play as myself, which is a hard thing to adjust.

[NoctiZ]

I disagree with your premise that no connections can be made, ESPECIALLY if Arsonist ignites one player at a time.

I don't understand how this relates.

All I'm saying is that pre-flip associations are hard to form in a game with 2 scums. Once one scum flips it gets easier to find the second scum.

Difference in this game is that there's only one person and to him everyone else is the same. He has no reason to act in a special way towards anybody.

[Frog]

There's no low-hanging fruit here. The setup literally prohibits it.


That's cool. Everyone noticed you placing me at L-1 on page one.

Dude, you basically slipped. It's Gg

[Calix]

I do not think those things are needed to scum hunt.



What has caught your eye so far in this game? Any thoughts on any of the players so far?

Frog's suggestion to not discuss strategy on Day 1 strikes me as a bit odd to have as his very first post, considering that he didn't offer up an alternative topic to discuss.

I don't like how carelessly everyone bandwagoned Sen.

NoctiZ seems to be staying under the radar and agrees with some of what Frog said iirc, so I have my eye on him.

I will read/ reread the chat and offer more comprehensive thoughts tomorrow (hosting the other game + have to go to sleep soon) but I don't think Sen or RLVG are great lynches at the moment. Maybe I am just being overcautious, but I would be really surprised if we had all found the scum just like that.

@NoctiZ, you think there's no difference between players for the Arsonist? You forget his night action.

[Frog]

Ok guys. The real reason I voted Sen is because I'm Mason with Helz. Now that we're outted we can continue from here as 2 confirmed towns.

[Frog]

We can hypoclaim being a Checker and hypoclaim who we would target, then afterwards hypoclaim if target was doused or not, for WIFOM.

Which is what Frog suggested

I didn't suggest the first part, which was hypoclaiming who we're targeting.

I'll suggest against that heavily, as it will quickly reveal vulnerabilities and the real douse checker.

[Sen]

Dude, you basically slipped. It's Gg

[Frog]

Friendly reminder that Sen's at L-1

I recommend someone unvoting for now.

Why do you care Calix?

[Frog]

-vote Calix

[Sen]

Why do you care Calix?

She's scum with me. You got us.

[Calix]

Why do you care Calix?

Why wouldn't I care? If someone isn't paying attention to the vote count and decides to bandwagon, we get fucked over. I didn't realise the votes were that high myself until I saw your vote.

[NoctiZ]

Frog's suggestion to not discuss strategy on Day 1 strikes me as a bit odd to have as his very first post, considering that he didn't offer up an alternative topic to discuss.

I don't like how carelessly everyone bandwagoned Sen.

NoctiZ seems to be staying under the radar and agrees with some of what Frog said iirc, so I have my eye on him.

I will read/ reread the chat and offer more comprehensive thoughts tomorrow (hosting the other game + have to go to sleep soon) but I don't think Sen or RLVG are great lynches at the moment. Maybe I am just being overcautious, but I would be really surprised if we had all found the scum just like that.

@NoctiZ, you think there's no difference between players for the Arsonist? You forget his night action.

I'm saying there's no difference to him compared to everyone else. For him everyone of us is the same. He doesn't really have to care about the Douse Checker from a Day POV. I don't even know why you say I "forget his night action". That's why I said that everyone of us town players is the same to him. We were talking about analyses during the day if you forgot.

I didn't suggest the first part, which was hypoclaiming who we're targeting.

I'll suggest against that heavily, as it will quickly reveal vulnerabilities and the real douse checker.

Lol sorry, I didn't see that RLVG said we should claim who we would target because that shit doesn't even make sense to me. Thought it was the same thing you said.

[NoctiZ]

She's scum with me. You got us.

Man, if one of you is town then that really makes pre-flip associations seem pretty bad, eh.

[Calix]

I'm saying there's no difference to him compared to everyone else. For him everyone of us is the same. He doesn't really have to care about the Douse Checker from a Day POV. I don't even know why you say I "forget his night action". That's why I said that everyone of us town players is the same to him. We were talking about analyses during the day if you forgot.

You think Arsonist would be as willing to lynch anyone they know is doused? Does that not count as a difference?

I don't know if that's important a difference enough to manifest in the way Arsonist would talk or vote but it's something to keep in mind.

[NoctiZ]

You think Arsonist would be as willing to lynch anyone they know is doused? Does that not count as a difference?

I don't know if that's important a difference enough to manifest in the way Arsonist would talk or vote but it's something to keep in mind.

Tbh now we're getting into the territory of talking about what an Arsonist should and should not do or rather the best way for him to play which I would shy away from as a topic.

[Helz]

Ok guys. The real reason I voted Sen is because I'm Mason with Helz. Now that we're outted we can continue from here as 2 confirmed towns.

I can confirm. For some reason the host placed our mason chat in a hairy armpit fetish forum. We were just discussing how scum know who is town and they sometimes leverage that information for town cred.

[RLVG]

You think Arsonist would be as willing to lynch anyone they know is doused?

With the chance of the Checker flailing, yes.

[Frog]

Why wouldn't I care? If someone isn't paying attention to the vote count and decides to bandwagon, we get fucked over. I didn't realise the votes were that high myself until I saw your vote.

Why does it matter to you?

[Frog]

I can confirm. For some reason the host placed our mason chat in a hairy armpit fetish forum. We were just discussing how scum know who is town and they sometimes leverage that information for town cred.

K. I'm purging Calix tonight.

[Helz]

I am also just going to throw out there that I believer the checker should never for any reason self check. After thinking it through its just a terrible idea.

[Calix]

Tbh now we're getting into the territory of talking about what an Arsonist should and should not do or rather the best way for him to play which I would shy away from as a topic.

Fair enough. I wanted to counter the point that votes can't be analysed before anyone decides to disregard them entirely.

Why does it matter to you?

Of course it's a bad thing to risk a hammer when we're less than three hours into a game. Why is this something that has to be spoon-fed to you? Unless you're advocating random lynches (which I don't fancy doing because that would be dull)

[RLVG]

Let's add a teaspoon of despair.

-vote Calix

[NoctiZ]

I am also just going to throw out there that I believer the checker should never for any reason self check. After thinking it through its just a terrible idea.

Agreed, seems pretty logical once you think about it.

[NoctiZ]

Fair enough. I wanted to counter the point that votes can't be analysed before anyone decides to disregard them entirely.

I do still disagree with the point but we'll leave it at that.