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[QUOTE=OzyWho;842661]So, apparently, in the business of stock market - monkeys throwing random darts [B]outperform[/B] the biggest brains in the business because everyone tries to outsmart everyone and so nothing is predictable.
[url]https://youtu.be/_vdB7gphtyo[/url]
The best way to make money in that business is to teach or manage others for a fee. :laugh:

I just wonder.
If you had a FM game full with highly experienced veteran players. Could it be the same? Random?[/QUOTE]

You touch a very interesting point here. That exact situation applies to games (and communities) where WIFOM is applied over the healthy amount. When one player sometimes fakeclaims (soft claiming that is easily detectable by mafia to get killed as citizen) as town to shield real power roles and that it works well, it's a good play. If everyone does that, it's just a big mess, and the "monkeys" are better.

If everyone is highly experienced, which is extremely rare and probably happens only on the MU Championship's finale, there is a part of randomness, like in every game. The difference is that tells become much more subtle. However, strategies like town hunting (instead of scum hunting) can greatly help reduce randomness of outcome; Mafia is not an exact science, but it definetly isn't all about randomness.

You said that someone couldn't get from 40 % to 70 % winrate by studying the game a lot, but I completely disagree with that : a player with enough strenght of the "pillars of Mafia" (obvtownness, charisma, towncoring correctly, accuracy of scumreads) can carry a town. Similarly, a very good scum player who plays like a townie can completely outplay a town by managing to get in the town core. Proof is that some players are considered better than some other players and have a better winrate than them.

You are right that not everything is mathematic and infaillible, but there is still a big part of control over the game that comes the the different players' skills.

Originally Posted by OzyWho

So, apparently, in the business of stock market - monkeys throwing random darts outperform the biggest brains in the business because everyone tries to outsmart everyone and so nothing is predictable.
https://youtu.be/_vdB7gphtyo
The best way to make money in that business is to teach or manage others for a fee.

I just wonder.
If you had a FM game full with highly experienced veteran players. Could it be the same? Random?

You touch a very interesting point here. That exact situation applies to games (and communities) where WIFOM is applied over the healthy amount. When one player sometimes fakeclaims (soft claiming that is easily detectable by mafia to get killed as citizen) as town to shield real power roles and that it works well, it's a good play. If everyone does that, it's just a big mess, and the "monkeys" are better.

If everyone is highly experienced, which is extremely rare and probably happens only on the MU Championship's finale, there is a part of randomness, like in every game. The difference is that tells become much more subtle. However, strategies like town hunting (instead of scum hunting) can greatly help reduce randomness of outcome; Mafia is not an exact science, but it definetly isn't all about randomness.

You said that someone couldn't get from 40 % to 70 % winrate by studying the game a lot, but I completely disagree with that : a player with enough strenght of the "pillars of Mafia" (obvtownness, charisma, towncoring correctly, accuracy of scumreads) can carry a town. Similarly, a very good scum player who plays like a townie can completely outplay a town by managing to get in the town core. Proof is that some players are considered better than some other players and have a better winrate than them.

You are right that not everything is mathematic and infaillible, but there is still a big part of control over the game that comes the the different players' skills.