April 29th, 2022, 05:05 PM
[QUOTE=oops_ur_dead;967249]This discussion is complete intellectual masturbation on all sides and the point is entirely inarguable.
The entire thing boils down to a decision tree with two branches
1) Do you think the contents of the universe follow a deterministic set of laws that can be computed and/or mathematically modeled? If no then so-called algorithmic machines do not exist and the whole argument is moot.
If yes, then:
2) Do you believe the human brain is subject to the same rules as all other matter in the universe? If so, then the brain is necessarily a machine per this weird definition of "machine".
3) If no, then you believe in some extra-physical process that comprise human thought, i.e. a soul.
[/QUOTE]
Honestly, am I the only one who can't understand this thread? :push:
[QUOTE=oops_ur_dead;967249]This entire thread, IMO, is the same as asking "Do you believe in a soul?" which is a very uninteresting conversation.[/QUOTE]
I don't but I refer to it on a regular basis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Originally Posted by
oops_ur_dead
This discussion is complete intellectual masturbation on all sides and the point is entirely inarguable.
The entire thing boils down to a decision tree with two branches
1) Do you think the contents of the universe follow a deterministic set of laws that can be computed and/or mathematically modeled? If no then so-called algorithmic machines do not exist and the whole argument is moot.
If yes, then:
2) Do you believe the human brain is subject to the same rules as all other matter in the universe? If so, then the brain is necessarily a machine per this weird definition of "machine".
3) If no, then you believe in some extra-physical process that comprise human thought, i.e. a soul.
Honestly, am I the only one who can't understand this thread? 

Originally Posted by
oops_ur_dead
This entire thread, IMO, is the same as asking "Do you believe in a soul?" which is a very uninteresting conversation.
I don't but I refer to it on a regular basis ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
April 29th, 2022, 03:13 AM
[QUOTE=WrathCyber;967247]Think of it this way: you're enchanter. You know x is beguiler and y is soldato. You expect soldato to detonate this night, so you send beguiler to soldato and make him self explode.[/QUOTE]
I don't believe you'd get that scenario once in a 1000 games. You need 2 confirmed mafias and their exact roles and neither of them getting lynched that day and a enchantress to do the deed.
Even if it was a realistic scenario, I hardly doubt Frinckles deliberately made Beguiler die from targeting Soldato just for that niche scenario.
Edit: is Enchantress before Beguiler in OoO? Wouldn't have expected that.

Originally Posted by
WrathCyber
Think of it this way: you're enchanter. You know x is beguiler and y is soldato. You expect soldato to detonate this night, so you send beguiler to soldato and make him self explode.
I don't believe you'd get that scenario once in a 1000 games. You need 2 confirmed mafias and their exact roles and neither of them getting lynched that day and a enchantress to do the deed.
Even if it was a realistic scenario, I hardly doubt Frinckles deliberately made Beguiler die from targeting Soldato just for that niche scenario.
Edit: is Enchantress before Beguiler in OoO? Wouldn't have expected that.
April 28th, 2022, 09:24 PM
[QUOTE=WrathCyber;967215]this is an intended feature.[/QUOTE]
What'd be the logic of Beguiler exploding while hiding behind Soldato? It doesn't make sense to me tbh.
To call it [I]intended[/I] is somewhat a stretch imho.

Originally Posted by
WrathCyber
this is an intended feature.
What'd be the logic of Beguiler exploding while hiding behind Soldato? It doesn't make sense to me tbh.
To call it intended is somewhat a stretch imho.
April 24th, 2022, 11:43 PM
[QUOTE=Frinckles;967202]is this a bug report[/QUOTE]
Ahh, now I had to double check.
I assumed soldato exploded because beguiller, who targeted soldato, exploded and both their roles were hidden. (graveyard death description for soldato wasn't of any help due to 2 other death descriptions)
But soldato role was hidden due to Incense Master and no alert of dying from explosion.
[ATTACH]28518[/ATTACH]
N1 - soldato planted a bomb on the constable.
N2 - soldato detonated the bomb.
Who exploded N2: constable, [s]soldato[/s], armorsmith (targetting constable), beguiler (targetting soldato).
I guess it's still a bug due to beguiler exploding..
One thing soldato role card doesn't mention though: he sees LW's of everyone who exploded.
I was wrong but still right.. I guess? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Originally Posted by
Frinckles
is this a bug report
Ahh, now I had to double check.
I assumed soldato exploded because beguiller, who targeted soldato, exploded and both their roles were hidden. (graveyard death description for soldato wasn't of any help due to 2 other death descriptions)
But soldato role was hidden due to Incense Master and no alert of dying from explosion.

N1 - soldato planted a bomb on the constable.
N2 - soldato detonated the bomb.
Who exploded N2: constable, soldato, armorsmith (targetting constable), beguiler (targetting soldato).
I guess it's still a bug due to beguiler exploding..
One thing soldato role card doesn't mention though: he sees LW's of everyone who exploded.
I was wrong but still right.. I guess? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
April 24th, 2022, 04:51 PM
It feels bad having to explode yourself (+watching replay to make sure) before learning that detonating is suicide.
I'd like to suggest adding some indication that soldato detonating their bomb counts as visiting it.
Like add it in the role description text or place the detonation button to the target not yourself.
It feels bad having to explode yourself (+watching replay to make sure) before learning that detonating is suicide.
I'd like to suggest adding some indication that soldato detonating their bomb counts as visiting it.
Like add it in the role description text or place the detonation button to the target not yourself.
April 23rd, 2022, 03:24 PM
:thriller:
April 23rd, 2022, 03:23 PM
Assuming there's anyone left who still plays, hasn't left or been banned, and hasn't joined yet - can we please fill up that game already? :laugh:
[IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG][IMG]https://www.mafiacafe.net/core/images/smilies//fetch.gif[/IMG]
Assuming there's anyone left who still plays, hasn't left or been banned, and hasn't joined yet - can we please fill up that game already? 











April 23rd, 2022, 10:38 AM
[QUOTE=Frinckles;967183]Also no greeks allowed?[/QUOTE]
You didn't read my post have you :(
I mentioned 4 greeks, though only 1 directly. >.<

Originally Posted by
Frinckles
Also no greeks allowed?
You didn't read my post have you 
I mentioned 4 greeks, though only 1 directly. >.<
April 21st, 2022, 12:47 PM
[QUOTE=DoctorZeus;967158]BTW if you want more players the best way is more personal connections & quality of the ux and less game set up.
There's a reason MU is doing so well, and there's a reason certain players do better in filling games. I came here for Lag and joined games because of Lag.[/QUOTE]
Yah I myself have left SC2Mafia and Skwirl discords and not really joining any games anymore.
Similarly, I came to FM from the mod for MM, Oberon came here for Distorted, lots of older players came for SuperJack.
After years and years of pondering on this question, your comment shines the truest of them all.

Originally Posted by
DoctorZeus
BTW if you want more players the best way is more personal connections & quality of the ux and less game set up.
There's a reason MU is doing so well, and there's a reason certain players do better in filling games. I came here for Lag and joined games because of Lag.
Yah I myself have left SC2Mafia and Skwirl discords and not really joining any games anymore.
Similarly, I came to FM from the mod for MM, Oberon came here for Distorted, lots of older players came for SuperJack.
After years and years of pondering on this question, your comment shines the truest of them all.
April 20th, 2022, 02:53 PM
totally 100% aha what he said
totally 100% aha what he said
April 18th, 2022, 12:44 PM
[QUOTE=Oberon;967092]Or conduct a survey and just ask a lot of people if they'd consider signing for a game on a different site with night-only chats.[/QUOTE]
reply's I got were ranging from wouldn't join night only to wouldn't mind joining. no reply's of preferring nights only, all in range of would mind or wouldn't mind. yah i asked only on 3 communities, but I saw none who didn't see nights only chat as just inferior across the board.

Originally Posted by
Oberon
Or conduct a survey and just ask a lot of people if they'd consider signing for a game on a different site with night-only chats.
reply's I got were ranging from wouldn't join night only to wouldn't mind joining. no reply's of preferring nights only, all in range of would mind or wouldn't mind. yah i asked only on 3 communities, but I saw none who didn't see nights only chat as just inferior across the board.
April 18th, 2022, 12:40 PM
[QUOTE=Oberon;967089]Why would this be the case[/QUOTE]
who knows
popular guess is that night only chat is a miserable experience for mafia by comparison

Originally Posted by
Oberon
Why would this be the case
who knows
popular guess is that night only chat is a miserable experience for mafia by comparison
April 18th, 2022, 12:38 PM
April 18th, 2022, 12:38 PM
You know it's serious when you see that SB16 added mechanics
You know it's serious when you see that SB16 added mechanics
April 18th, 2022, 04:51 AM
[QUOTE=DoctorZeus;967085]
- it's [B]much[/B] more fun to be scum. You build stronger relationships, you banter more, and, you get to laugh at village more[/QUOTE]
This should be the only criteria for all I care. And it's not even a subjective statement because mafiascum have made the research and concluded that statistically there's far fewer replacements in 24/7
mafia chat games. Though weren't Mafiascum games like a week per game day or something? That's different if so..

Originally Posted by
DoctorZeus
- it's much more fun to be scum. You build stronger relationships, you banter more, and, you get to laugh at village more
This should be the only criteria for all I care. And it's not even a subjective statement because mafiascum have made the research and concluded that statistically there's far fewer replacements in 24/7
mafia chat games. Though weren't Mafiascum games like a week per game day or something? That's different if so..
April 18th, 2022, 04:41 AM
[QUOTE=DoctorZeus;967084]What is the mod being g referred to?[/QUOTE]
The [I]-Mafia-[/I] game inside SC2. The predecessor to games like ToS and ToL.
Yah idk why people call it mod tbh. In SC2 they're called arcade maps, in SC1 they're called UMS maps, in WC3 they're called custom maps. I guess "mod" refers to everything user made in every game ever?

Originally Posted by
DoctorZeus
What is the mod being g referred to?
The -Mafia- game inside SC2. The predecessor to games like ToS and ToL.
Yah idk why people call it mod tbh. In SC2 they're called arcade maps, in SC1 they're called UMS maps, in WC3 they're called custom maps. I guess "mod" refers to everything user made in every game ever?
April 17th, 2022, 07:12 PM
[QUOTE=aamirus;967069]it's kind of ugly but i added an iso list to the top of threads[/QUOTE]
Beautiful

Originally Posted by
aamirus
it's kind of ugly but i added an iso list to the top of threads
Beautiful
April 17th, 2022, 02:37 PM
Somehow I never had an open role madness setup. That's uncommon even outside SC2Mafia, right?
Somehow I never had an open role madness setup. That's uncommon even outside SC2Mafia, right?
April 15th, 2022, 01:14 AM
I just want to quote a fairly good criticism about night only chat:
[QUOTE]I have been summoned
(ccing [noparse]@mansnicks[/noparse] )
on most sites that I play on, 24/7 wolfchat rather than night only wolfchat is standard. This is not true everywhere, and plenty of places do it differently.
On some level this is a balance decision -- if wolves have 24/7 chat, they can talk/coordinate/etc., whereas if they don't have that it is much harder for them to do anything resembling that. This is especially true in games with no N0 planning phase; if wolves don't get to talk until night 1, and until then basically have to improvise a plan separately with no way to coordinate with each other, this obviously makes it harder for them.
This is also on some level (I suspect the level on which this change is being pushed) a balance decision. Many players find it kind of unenjoyable to roll scum and not be able to talk to or coordinate with their team; many players see 'being in wolfchat' as one of the fun parts about being a wolf. Neither of these is universal but both of these are common.
I don't think that either '24/7 wolfchat' or 'not that' should be enforced on a site level, in my opinion those are both decisions that can be left up to the individual host. If players don't want to play a game without 24/7 wolfchat, then this will kind of solve itself -- they just won't sign up for games that don't have it.
Personally I would probably not sign up for a game with nightchat only for wolves and only run games with 24/7 wolfchat.[/QUOTE]
I agree that Night Only chat can be a miserable experience for the wolves by comparison to 24/7 chat.
Edit: let's not forget that we've Night Only chat in most setups just because mechanics were either copied directly from already approved setups or copied because our experiences are so biased in favor of Night Only chat.. since.. you know.. it's like almost every setup page for a decade..
I just want to quote a fairly good criticism about night only chat:
I have been summoned
(ccing @mansnicks )
on most sites that I play on, 24/7 wolfchat rather than night only wolfchat is standard. This is not true everywhere, and plenty of places do it differently.
On some level this is a balance decision -- if wolves have 24/7 chat, they can talk/coordinate/etc., whereas if they don't have that it is much harder for them to do anything resembling that. This is especially true in games with no N0 planning phase; if wolves don't get to talk until night 1, and until then basically have to improvise a plan separately with no way to coordinate with each other, this obviously makes it harder for them.
This is also on some level (I suspect the level on which this change is being pushed) a balance decision. Many players find it kind of unenjoyable to roll scum and not be able to talk to or coordinate with their team; many players see 'being in wolfchat' as one of the fun parts about being a wolf. Neither of these is universal but both of these are common.
I don't think that either '24/7 wolfchat' or 'not that' should be enforced on a site level, in my opinion those are both decisions that can be left up to the individual host. If players don't want to play a game without 24/7 wolfchat, then this will kind of solve itself -- they just won't sign up for games that don't have it.
Personally I would probably not sign up for a game with nightchat only for wolves and only run games with 24/7 wolfchat.
I agree that Night Only chat can be a miserable experience for the wolves by comparison to 24/7 chat.
Edit: let's not forget that we've Night Only chat in most setups just because mechanics were either copied directly from already approved setups or copied because our experiences are so biased in favor of Night Only chat.. since.. you know.. it's like almost every setup page for a decade..
April 15th, 2022, 12:01 AM
[QUOTE=Mizery;966991]Ok that didn't work at all ok[/QUOTE]
[SPOILER]yeah i think you've to name the spoiler something for it to work, anything, even black space[/SPOILER]

Originally Posted by
Mizery
Ok that didn't work at all ok
[SPOILER]yeah i think you've to name the spoiler something for it to work, anything, even black space[/SPOILER]
April 14th, 2022, 08:55 PM
Apparently even FoL has never had problems with 24/7 chat, and they're heavy mech lovers as they go.
[COLOR="#0000FF"]Edit: in fact, day chat allowed them to be more mech heavy as mech heaviness is otherwise a town buff.[/COLOR]
I guess this means I'm mostly [I]for[/I] having most games be 24/7.
Only setups like krc and Smiths I could see it causing trouble, few setups by comparison.
Apparently even FoL has never had problems with 24/7 chat, and they're heavy mech lovers as they go.
Edit: in fact, day chat allowed them to be more mech heavy as mech heaviness is otherwise a town buff.
I guess this means I'm mostly for having most games be 24/7.
Only setups like krc and Smiths I could see it causing trouble, few setups by comparison.
April 14th, 2022, 07:56 PM
[QUOTE=Frinckles;966983]Lag has done a spectacular job of bringing in people from other sites so I'm curious what they're thinking.[/QUOTE]
I'm up for this being the deciding factor.

Originally Posted by
Frinckles
Lag has done a spectacular job of bringing in people from other sites so I'm curious what they're thinking.
I'm up for this being the deciding factor.
April 14th, 2022, 07:55 PM
In a setup like krc I'd prefer night only, and depending on the setup some but few semi-opens also. Both because of the possibility of it enabling game breaking plays.
In a setup like Mountainous or any low PR regular setup I prefer 24/7 because I find the idea of catching some newly formed wolf agenda live. It's more enjoyable for wolves also and innocent enough for such setups that the fun aspect greatly outweighs any negatives imho.
I guess for nights only technically there's things like trying to catch someone who eagerly awaited the night chat and then came in strong after the night, or something like that, but it's meh by comparison and probably mostly NAI anyway.
I don't remember seeing any host changing even simple mechanics like that for their game. It's always been whatever the setup page already said. I don't expect that to change, but if it does and when hosts do put in this change in signups when hosting preexisting setups - then perhaps it's worth considering telling everyone to also hide their online status?
In a setup like krc I'd prefer night only, and depending on the setup some but few semi-opens also. Both because of the possibility of it enabling game breaking plays.
In a setup like Mountainous or any low PR regular setup I prefer 24/7 because I find the idea of catching some newly formed wolf agenda live. It's more enjoyable for wolves also and innocent enough for such setups that the fun aspect greatly outweighs any negatives imho.
I guess for nights only technically there's things like trying to catch someone who eagerly awaited the night chat and then came in strong after the night, or something like that, but it's meh by comparison and probably mostly NAI anyway.
I don't remember seeing any host changing even simple mechanics like that for their game. It's always been whatever the setup page already said. I don't expect that to change, but if it does and when hosts do put in this change in signups when hosting preexisting setups - then perhaps it's worth considering telling everyone to also hide their online status?
April 14th, 2022, 11:06 AM
[QUOTE=oliverz144;966969]i've searched mafiascum and walrus wiki, and googled various relating terms.
i didnt find a question-solving answer, but found out that al capone fed 1.5 thousend muricans with daily lunch soup! (yummy yummy lynch very tasty! hammer the tastiest!)
w/e... my guess is that its an additional rid kill... am i right?
oh answer me ... you wise mafia veterans[/QUOTE]
I've little to no experience with it, but [I]AFAIK[/I] most of the time it's the ability for the mafia to kill someone if they guess their role correctly, and the number of guesses they can make are usually not public knowledge.
Regardless of what an individual game's soup mechanic is though, just know that it's an anti claim mechanic.

Originally Posted by
oliverz144
i've searched mafiascum and walrus wiki, and googled various relating terms.
i didnt find a question-solving answer, but found out that al capone fed 1.5 thousend muricans with daily lunch soup! (yummy yummy lynch very tasty! hammer the tastiest!)
w/e... my guess is that its an additional rid kill... am i right?
oh answer me ... you wise mafia veterans
I've little to no experience with it, but AFAIK most of the time it's the ability for the mafia to kill someone if they guess their role correctly, and the number of guesses they can make are usually not public knowledge.
Regardless of what an individual game's soup mechanic is though, just know that it's an anti claim mechanic.
April 11th, 2022, 08:17 AM
I have 2 thoughts on this:
1) Jordan Peterson. I'm so against him being on the list. Lots of his advice is just common sense in psychological “You get motivated by action.” Duh. But beyond that there's countless examples of him pulling shit like [URL="https://youtu.be/zmrv9NSKKYE?t=134"]this[/URL]. There's some admirable qualities of his or things he's done: like his ability in having open and honest debates or his analysis of Hitler, or him pointing out basics things like the reverse racism of saying things like "all white men are oppressors". But I fail to see him being worthy of being on such a list tbh.
2) Just like the human mind can't imagine/generate a color it has never seen, so too it can't generate anything else - every thought, reasoning, idea, shape, sound comes from a combination of previous inputs. Which is why I think it can't be understated how highly we should value and appreciate the "fathers" of things. Father's of physics, philosophy, math, science, engineering, etc., - if we could name them, they deserve to be on such a list.
I don't agree that the complexity of an idea is indicative of how difficult it was to think of. For example, I'd value - people figuring out that the earth is round thousands of years ago from just the shadows of lunar eclipses - as more difficult than todays satellites built. I'd value the pythagorean cup as more complex than a tomorrows skyscraper. For that reason I think there should be a very few names listed from the last few centuries. Newton, Tesla, Einstein - I think it's theories and discoveries like that which should be worthy on the list, when it comes to more modern names.
I have 2 thoughts on this:
1) Jordan Peterson. I'm so against him being on the list. Lots of his advice is just common sense in psychological “You get motivated by action.†Duh. But beyond that there's countless examples of him pulling shit like this. There's some admirable qualities of his or things he's done: like his ability in having open and honest debates or his analysis of Hitler, or him pointing out basics things like the reverse racism of saying things like "all white men are oppressors". But I fail to see him being worthy of being on such a list tbh.
2) Just like the human mind can't imagine/generate a color it has never seen, so too it can't generate anything else - every thought, reasoning, idea, shape, sound comes from a combination of previous inputs. Which is why I think it can't be understated how highly we should value and appreciate the "fathers" of things. Father's of physics, philosophy, math, science, engineering, etc., - if we could name them, they deserve to be on such a list.
I don't agree that the complexity of an idea is indicative of how difficult it was to think of. For example, I'd value - people figuring out that the earth is round thousands of years ago from just the shadows of lunar eclipses - as more difficult than todays satellites built. I'd value the pythagorean cup as more complex than a tomorrows skyscraper. For that reason I think there should be a very few names listed from the last few centuries. Newton, Tesla, Einstein - I think it's theories and discoveries like that which should be worthy on the list, when it comes to more modern names.
April 11th, 2022, 06:46 AM
[QUOTE=aamirus;966746][MENTION=30663]OzyWho[/MENTION]
from ozy: "Auto expand, reverse ISO, multi ISO, vote ISO, reply, +multi quote button, hide forum thread info, distinguish posts, ISO shortcut from thread directly."
ozy i did one of your requests are you proud of me[/QUOTE]
This is awesome, thx!
Also, I myself idk what most of those request thingies are supposed to be anymore :laugh:

Originally Posted by
aamirus
@
OzyWho
from ozy: "Auto expand, reverse ISO, multi ISO, vote ISO, reply, +multi quote button, hide forum thread info, distinguish posts, ISO shortcut from thread directly."
ozy i did one of your requests are you proud of me
This is awesome, thx!
Also, I myself idk what most of those request thingies are supposed to be anymore
April 9th, 2022, 08:08 PM
I think American Flag was the first setup that had day kills end the days. Feature is nice to have, just I expect most to have forgotten about it before the next time arises that it'll be needed - that remembering will be a fun moment. :laugh:
I think American Flag was the first setup that had day kills end the days. Feature is nice to have, just I expect most to have forgotten about it before the next time arises that it'll be needed - that remembering will be a fun moment.
April 4th, 2022, 10:22 AM
[QUOTE=Lag;965943]So I had actually read the setup incorrectly, I read it as
"Put a bounty on a player at night.
The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
If the player is lynched during the ensuing day,
you gain one charge of a night kill."
Rather than
"Put a bounty on a player at night.
The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
If the player is not lynched during the ensuing day,
you gain one charge of a night kill."
[/QUOTE]
Wait, what? Has that always been the case? [MENTION=45595]Oberon[/MENTION] :laugh:
Btw, Lag, why is it that the statistics numbers only change every +2 townies? Town can't skip, i feel like +1 townie should change something :S

Originally Posted by
Lag
So I had actually read the setup incorrectly, I read it as
"Put a bounty on a player at night.
The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
If the player is lynched during the ensuing day,
you gain one charge of a night kill."
Rather than
"Put a bounty on a player at night.
The bounty will be publicly announced at the start of the day.
If the player is not lynched during the ensuing day,
you gain one charge of a night kill."
Wait, what? Has that always been the case?
@Oberon

Btw, Lag, why is it that the statistics numbers only change every +2 townies? Town can't skip, i feel like +1 townie should change something
April 2nd, 2022, 02:16 PM
“Yes” and “No.”
[MENTION=29585]aamirus[/MENTION] how did you get them not-vertical quotation marks?
“Yes†and “No.â€
@aamirus
how did you get them not-vertical quotation marks?
April 1st, 2022, 11:00 AM
[QUOTE=Lag;965370]Red flag isn't even really mountainous, mafia should theoretically kill their own teammates at certain points to make it harder for town to gain points in a red flag setup. When you have mafia killing other mafia as an optimal play in a game, that really doesn't qualify as a mountainous game anymore.
Also, I used to agree with you months ago, so I looked up all the champs games from the last time champs was a mountainous game, and I saw that despite having a 24.5% EV winrate, town was winning around 36% of the time. While the sample size was relatively small (14 games), it was significant enough of a difference to make me call my priors into question.
Season 4 of Champs was a 12v3 mountainous, town won 5 of the 14 games. The probability of town winning 5 or more games assuming they should win 24.5% of the time is 10%
That's not quite enough to be considered statistically significant, but it [I]is[/I] enough to at least call into question the assumption as well as discredit claims that say that the data supports EV project projections.
So when the data didn't support the conclusion (the EV winrate is not what you see in mountainous games in practice) and when intuition didn't support the conclusion (A 42 v 3 game sounds absurd), I had no choice but to reject the conclusion and modify my beliefs[/QUOTE]
Yah, that season 4 anomaly was really interesting. I think they did better than other seasons with same Town vs Mafia ratio but with Power Roles, and usually in Champs in qualifiers Mafia are overperforming while Town is overperforming in semis (finals feel even though? 0.o) so that makes the anomaly even more strange. :laugh:
I'm curious how it will go this year! :>
But anyhow, I looked at all MU mountainous games, not just the Champs, for my conclusion back then.
Champs so weird. Almost always Mafia are overperforming, with all that different playstyle clash in the qualis, yet the one statistically mafia favored setup it's the opposite 0.o
Edit: ohh yah the statistics results were fun :laugh:
[INDENT][I]Town has won 9 times, Scum have won 24 times.
Town has 27.27% win rate overall.
However, 5 of those wins are from Championship Season 4 games.[/I][/INDENT]

Originally Posted by
Lag
Red flag isn't even really mountainous, mafia should theoretically kill their own teammates at certain points to make it harder for town to gain points in a red flag setup. When you have mafia killing other mafia as an optimal play in a game, that really doesn't qualify as a mountainous game anymore.
Also, I used to agree with you months ago, so I looked up all the champs games from the last time champs was a mountainous game, and I saw that despite having a 24.5% EV winrate, town was winning around 36% of the time. While the sample size was relatively small (14 games), it was significant enough of a difference to make me call my priors into question.
Season 4 of Champs was a 12v3 mountainous, town won 5 of the 14 games. The probability of town winning 5 or more games assuming they should win 24.5% of the time is 10%
That's not quite enough to be considered statistically significant, but it is enough to at least call into question the assumption as well as discredit claims that say that the data supports EV project projections.
So when the data didn't support the conclusion (the EV winrate is not what you see in mountainous games in practice) and when intuition didn't support the conclusion (A 42 v 3 game sounds absurd), I had no choice but to reject the conclusion and modify my beliefs
Yah, that season 4 anomaly was really interesting. I think they did better than other seasons with same Town vs Mafia ratio but with Power Roles, and usually in Champs in qualifiers Mafia are overperforming while Town is overperforming in semis (finals feel even though?
) so that makes the anomaly even more strange. 
I'm curious how it will go this year! 
But anyhow, I looked at all MU mountainous games, not just the Champs, for my conclusion back then.
Champs so weird. Almost always Mafia are overperforming, with all that different playstyle clash in the qualis, yet the one statistically mafia favored setup it's the opposite 
Edit: ohh yah the statistics results were fun 
Town has won 9 times, Scum have won 24 times.
Town has 27.27% win rate overall.
However, 5 of those wins are from Championship Season 4 games.
April 1st, 2022, 10:23 AM
2vs19 sounds fun actually tbh
Mafia can kill 8-9 best players and have to be townier than 9-10 scummiest townies? Like I feel like it's a cool game ngl
2vs19 sounds fun actually tbh
Mafia can kill 8-9 best players and have to be townier than 9-10 scummiest townies? Like I feel like it's a cool game ngl
April 1st, 2022, 10:11 AM
If I wanted a mountainous 50%, I'd suggest red flag 15er, not 2vs19 regular mountainous btw. But regardless of how even those 2 vs 19 numbers look to you, as far as at least win chances go, I do think it'd average on that 50% with a large enough sample size, my own looking up the statistics of mountainous games doesn't give me a reason to doubt that. There's even that funny story of Thingyman winning 1vs20+ :laugh:
But as I said before; we differ on how strongly we value each teams influence and the impact of scumhunting vs misleading. For me it all evens out, for you town influence is stronger especially in the long run.
Like there's nothing more to it. You want to add slight favor to Mafia because you value Town strength higher than Mafia's; I don't.
If I wanted a mountainous 50%, I'd suggest red flag 15er, not 2vs19 regular mountainous btw. But regardless of how even those 2 vs 19 numbers look to you, as far as at least win chances go, I do think it'd average on that 50% with a large enough sample size, my own looking up the statistics of mountainous games doesn't give me a reason to doubt that. There's even that funny story of Thingyman winning 1vs20+ 
But as I said before; we differ on how strongly we value each teams influence and the impact of scumhunting vs misleading. For me it all evens out, for you town influence is stronger especially in the long run.
Like there's nothing more to it. You want to add slight favor to Mafia because you value Town strength higher than Mafia's; I don't.
April 1st, 2022, 08:21 AM
[QUOTE=Lag;965361]if town can win half the time while literally not even reading the game, then that's indicative of a town-sided setup.[/QUOTE]
As opposed to Wolf sided setup? What's the problem here? In either case, players get to play the game.
I fee like you're undervaluing the Wolf influence on the game tbh. In a 50%, I reckon the best team wins most of the time more than in any other EV setup.

Originally Posted by
Lag
if town can win half the time while literally not even reading the game, then that's indicative of a town-sided setup.
As opposed to Wolf sided setup? What's the problem here? In either case, players get to play the game.
I fee like you're undervaluing the Wolf influence on the game tbh. In a 50%, I reckon the best team wins most of the time more than in any other EV setup.
April 1st, 2022, 07:17 AM
[QUOTE=Lag;965359]I think 30-40 is ideal
25-50 is playable
15-70 is passable but far from ideal
and outside of that range is just blatantly town/wolf sided[/QUOTE]
I'd never play a 15% tbh, I could see myself playing a 70% if I'd expect the game to be fun otherwise.
You don't think 50% is ideal? I guess only I value the social deduction and deception effect on the game as low as I do.
If champs setup decision had a public discussion this year, I'd suggest Red Flag 15er instead of Mountainous.

Originally Posted by
Lag
I think 30-40 is ideal
25-50 is playable
15-70 is passable but far from ideal
and outside of that range is just blatantly town/wolf sided
I'd never play a 15% tbh, I could see myself playing a 70% if I'd expect the game to be fun otherwise.
You don't think 50% is ideal? I guess only I value the social deduction and deception effect on the game as low as I do.
If champs setup decision had a public discussion this year, I'd suggest Red Flag 15er instead of Mountainous.
April 1st, 2022, 04:51 AM
[QUOTE=Oberon;965355]I've never seen a random lynch in a game xD[/QUOTE]
last year i checked, a sample size of 30+ mountainous games shows that the town win rate is nearly identical to EV, so it's sort of important imho.
But like, D6 has 50+%, quite town sided, but many have named it their favorite setup at some point (though now its out of favor seems)
i'd say 20-80 is playable 30-70 is fine 40-60 is nearly perfect 50 is perfect, though i'd prefer 40 over 60 any day of the weel

Originally Posted by
Oberon
I've never seen a random lynch in a game xD
last year i checked, a sample size of 30+ mountainous games shows that the town win rate is nearly identical to EV, so it's sort of important imho.
But like, D6 has 50+%, quite town sided, but many have named it their favorite setup at some point (though now its out of favor seems)
i'd say 20-80 is playable 30-70 is fine 40-60 is nearly perfect 50 is perfect, though i'd prefer 40 over 60 any day of the weel
April 1st, 2022, 03:48 AM
By the way, this thread taught me that I struggle with abstract thinking. It's so alien to my brain, you guys may as well talk Korean as far as my brain is concerned :laugh:
By the way, this thread taught me that I struggle with abstract thinking. It's so alien to my brain, you guys may as well talk Korean as far as my brain is concerned