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    ►►Re: A Statistical Analysis of Racism Across 10,790 Replays◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    This is good work. Like some of your prior work, this doesn't necessarily line up with my experience. I'd be curious to run a similar analysis on my own replays.

    How are you identifying slurs?

    I'd also note you aren't including player selected names themselves.

    Additionally, I'd note that while you identify a small number of games with high slur rates, being in one of those games pretty much ruins it.
    Good questions, I added them + the answers to the reserved post.

    Quote Originally Posted by Renegade View Post
    Finally, I'd be interested in one more thing (promise this is it), for each player for each game the percentage of messages with at least one slur.

    It is possible that racists die early (I certainly target them), so I'd want to normalize against a player's total messages in a game.
    There is no way to tell if a player is alive and spamming racial slurs in game, or dead and spamming them in death chat, so this might be a bit more difficult to test than it might initially seem.

    That said, it would certainly be possible to determine statistics based on the percentage of messages a player sends which contain a slur, although I suspect this is more likely to detect people using racial slurs as a vehicle to grief and spam as opposed to people that just use racial slurs often while still playing the game. I'll message you with more details
  2. Replies
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    ►►Re: A Statistical Analysis of Racism Across 10,790 Replays◄◄

    Raw aggregate data is available upon request.

    Post reserved for answering any questions / providing clarifications that might arise.

    How are slurs identified?
    Code:
                    for slur in slurs:
                        if slur in line.lower():
                            # marked as as a message with a slur
    This does nothing to detect obfuscated slurs (although given that using slurs was previously not against the rules, there was little reason for people to obfuscate their slurs).
    This also technically double counts messages that have multiple different slurs in the message. Working as intended.

    Are player selected names counted?
    Yes, player selected names appear as chat messages in the extracted chat logs, therefore they are counted. Although they are not given any additional weight over other regular chat messages.
  3. Replies
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    ►►A Statistical Analysis of Racism Across 10,790 Replays◄◄

    The Dataset
    The dataset consists of 10,790 replays spanning a period of over 8 years, with the majority of the replays occurring between April 2017 and June 2020.



    Among these 10,790 games, there were 15,769 unique players. Below is the distribution of players based on the number of games they have played within the dataset. This is an important distinction, a player could have played 1000 games of mafia, but if they only appear in a single replay within the dataset, then they will appear in the "1 game played within dataset" category.



    Slur Usage by Player - Number of Slurs
    In this section the total number of messages a player sent that contain a slur are aggregated for that player across all games in which they appear in the dataset.

    For example, a player with the following chat logs would have a score of 3. Even though one of their messages contains two slurs, this is not double-counted to avoid skewing the dataset.
    Code:
    Game 1:
    Player: {slur} {slur}
    Player: hello world
    Player: {slur}
    Code:
    Game 2:
    Player: {slur}


    Zooming in on just the top 5% of the previous graph:



    Slur Usage by Player - Number of Games
    An alternative way to analyze the data is to count the number of games in which a given player used a slur.

    For example, a player that has played 1000 games in the dataset where they used 0 slurs in 999 of those games, but used a slur 200 times in a single game would appear in the top category in the previous section, but would only appear in the "1 game in which player used a slur" category in this section.



    Again, zooming in on the top 5%:



    Slur Usage by Game
    This section maps the distribution of games based on the number of messages containing slurs sent by all players within the game.

    The following game would have a score of 4 as there were 4 messages sent that contain slurs.
    Code:
    Player 1: Hello World
    Player 2: {slur} {slur}
    Player 2: {slur} {slur} {slur}
    Player 3: {slur}
    Player 4: Hello World
    Player 2: {slur}


    Preliminary Observations
    • 90.95% of players never used a slur across all of their games
    • 96.11% of players never used a slur in more than one game
    • The top 1.89% of players based on number of slurs used contribute 89.20% of all slurs used



    This raises the question: what would the statistics look like if these repeat offenders were filtered from the dataset?

    Slur Usage by Game - Filtering Chronic Offenders
    Players that have used a slur in more than 3 games are flagged as "chronic offenders" for the purposes of the filter.

    These chronic offenders make up the top 1.89% (denoted as Top 2% in graphics for the sake of brevity) of players in the dataset by number of games in which they used a slur.

    Two different filtering methods are used.

    Method 1: Ignore all messages sent by players in the top 1.89%
    In this method all messages sent by the filtered players are simply ignored.

    Method 2: Remove games from the dataset in which a filtered player used a slur
    The hypothesis behind this method is that there are knock-on effects from the usage of slurs by these chronic offenders - a chronic offender using slurs in game is likely to increase the probability that a non-chronic offender uses a slur in that game as well.

    Take the following chat log:
    Code:
    Player 1: {slur} {slur} {slur}
    Player 2: Player 1, please don't say "{slur}"
    In Method 1, Player 2 would still be flagged for using a slur. Therefore Method 2 seeks to reduce this factor by omitting games entirely in which filtered players used slurs.

    This method filtered out 30.19% of the games from the dataset (3257 out of 10790)



    Zooming in on the top 10%:



    Unrelated Offenses of Chronic Offenders
    This section is motivated behind the hypothesis that chronic offenders with respect to slur usage also tend to be problematic players in other aspects of the game.

    The metric used to test this hypothesis measured the number of games in which a player used a slur above the average rate.

    This metric accomplishes two things:
    1. It ignores players that have a high Slur Games / Total Games ratio simply due to the fact that they have played a low number of games. For example a player with 3 games in the data set in which they used a slur in all 3 games would have a 100% slur games / total games ratio - but the actual impact of their slur usage on the community itself is minimal as they only appeared in 3 games.
    2. It ignores players that have a high number of slur games only by virtue of having a high number of games. For example a player with 18 slur games would rank in the top 0.5% of players based on number of games in which they used a slur, but if this player has 1000 games within the dataset, they are still well below the average rate of slur usage.


    After ordering the players using this metric of number of slur games above the average rate:
    • Every player in the top 20 has had a report filed against them
    • 18 of the top 20 players have had a report approved against them for unrelated offenses
    • 16 of the top 20 players have been watchlisted for unrelated offenses
    • 7 of the top 12 players have been banlisted for unrelated offenses
    • 4 of the top 12 players have been permabanned for unrelated offenses


    Unfortunately these statistics need to be checked manually, and therefore a more comprehensive analysis is not viable at this time. However these preliminary results are strong evidence in favor of the hypothesis that chronic offenders when it comes to slur usage are also chronic offenders when it comes to other offenses.

    (Thank you to the staff for helping with these statistics!)

    Key Observations
    • The overwhelming majority of players do not use slurs at all
      • 90.95% of players used zero slurs across all their game
      • Only 3.18% of players used more than 3 slurs across all of their games
      • Only 1.89% of players used a slur in more than 3 of their games
    • The racism problem in the game is caused almost entirely by a tiny minority of players
      • The top 1.89% of players based on number of slurs used contribute 89.20% of all slurs used
      • When you ignore messages sent by these players then the number of games with zero slurs increases from 63.59% to 87.99% and the number of games with more than 1 slur drops to only 4.68%
      • When you filter out games with slur usage incited by the chronic offenders then the number of games with zero slurs increases further from 87.99% to 91.8% and the number of games with more than 1 slur drops further to only 3.27%
    • The chronic offenders when it comes to slur usage also tend to be chronic offenders when it comes to other rule violations
      • Every player in the top 20 has had a report filed against them
      • 18 of the top 20 players have had a report approved against them for unrelated offenses
      • 16 or the top 20 players have been watchlisted for unrelated offenses
      • 7 of the top 12 players have been banlisted for unrelated offenses
      • 4 of the top 12 players have been permabanned for unrelated offenses
  4. Forum:Forum Mafia Discussion

    Thread:Gambits

    Thread Author:Helz

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: Gambits◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Voss View Post
    it's why i try to push the game onto spammers. talk too much? you're making it harder for town players to know what's going on. people think this stream of consciousness makes them look like town. it doesn't. it's anti-town.
    I've heard the opposite

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    mafia like posting wall posts with their reads
  5. Forum:Signups

    Thread:FM- AllStars 14p-16p (Old School)

    Thread Author:Mike

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: FM- AllStars 14p-16p (Old School)◄◄

    Is observing an option?

    /observe
  6. Forum:Mafia Discussion

    Thread:The Legend of Honest Man

    Thread Author:ZZorange

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: The Legend of Honest Man◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by HentaiManOfPeace View Post
    Then let me bash? There's no harm in me doing so since this user is leaving anyway. There is no excuse to cheat and ruin the experience for others and to be a menace in other games. Having Honest Man on your team meant he was instantaneous deadweight. Like being forced to care for your aging parents who can't take care of themselves or if your child is born with a birth defect, but slightly less worse because I voluntarily play this game for fun.
    I have played 83 games with ZZorange the Honest Man

    The first games I played with him were before his most recent permaban->appeal, and there were a few games where his gimmick caused the game to be very frustrating - even lost the game for town once because of it. But after I figured out his gimmick, (which honestly didn't take that long given that it's pretty self explanatory), he just became a virtually confirmed town-slot in my games.

    And after his most recent permaban -> appeal, my town winrate with ZZorange was notably higher than my baseline town winrate. He was an easily confirmable town slot as all I had to do to find out if he was town was ask him if he was town. If he says he yes, then he's town. If he doesn't say yes, then he's not town. When I rolled town gov (which was pretty often because I prefer that role), he was an asset as he would be essentially a confirmed slot. He also had solid play elsewhere with reads, noticing voting patterns, etc.

    So labeling him as an instantaneous deadweight feels a bit unfair.



    • Is picking the same name every game, preferring town, and blacklisting scum an abuse of blacklist/prefer? That's a different topic. (IMO no, but there's been a whole thread about this)
    • Should employing a strategy that trades off a lower winrate with players unfamiliar with ZZorange for a higher winrate with players that are familiar with ZZorange be allowed? That's a different topic. (Which, if I understand correctly, the staff decided it's not fair to new players, hence the ban)
    • What about the back and forth witch-hunting between ZZorange and various other players? That's a different topic.
    • Has ZZorange been reported for more minor offenses which most players would be able to get away with unreported due to his reputation? That's a different topic.


    I'm not touching any of those topics here, I'm just saying that ZZorange was a good town player who made winning as town easier, and from a selfish perspective - my town winrate will certainly miss his absence
  7. ►►Re: Ye atheists by name, lend an ear, lend an ear◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    Why can't we shit on Taoism or Buddhism for a change? I don't want to be reincarnated, sounds dumb.
    Uh oh, just for that you're getting reincarnated as a slug or a frog or something
  8. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    hewwo hewwo

    lag ping ping ping

    -vote LagAttack


    ping ping ping, uwowu hewwo!!!
    scum team is Varcron + PQR ;w;

    why else did Varcron hammer like that
  9. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    yes.

    actually @OzyWho can answer this ^-^

    jk. i've mor power than ozy bc i am sHaRiFF
    Okay, I'll ignore it then.

    FrInCkLEs iS sCuM!11!

    -vote Frinckless
  10. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    this is angle-shooting
    So I'm just supposed to ignore the obvious elephant in the room and play extremely sub-optimally? Since what I posted was my theory before blink got lynched, but then the theory looks super dumb given that he just subbed out
  11. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Although I guess that doesn't make that much sense since why would Oberon immediately sub out if his plan was going exactly how he wanted.

    Which would make the scum team PQR + Varcron
  12. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    The only way you'd be unconvinced as town is if you believe my slot townread Blink from the get go and bussed a partner. Obviously in my scope as scum but less than ideal. I wouldn't have imagined Blink getting lynched in like 9/10 worlds and I'm never afraid to fight with Blink as scum. I would pocket someone else, easily.

    Furthermore the obvious thing is that I wasn't a part of his lynch.
    I am thinking you might be scum.

    Thinking about this from Oberon's POV.

    As scum, he sees a TvT thunderdome. He knows he doesn't need to do much other than let it play out. So he claims sheriff with a very explicit escape route with the way he did it.

    He then pushes for me along with blink.

    If he is successful in getting me lynched, blink will probably town-read him for having the same read that blink himself had.
    But he probably realized that the more likely scenario would be blink getting lynched. There is no reason to not lynch someone in that thunderdome. So by being the "outside vote" he could watch town implode in on itself to pick up a win off of it.
  13. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    The only reason for this to be so burnt into your mind would be if it's the only thing you're fixated on.

    BLINK IS DEAD.

    You can look at vote count analysis and figure out who to lynch here and you're smart enough to know it's between pqr and varcron so make your choice.
    blink gets under my skin.

    Are you saying this from my POV?

    Because I'm not convinced.
  14. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    Now imma meta it up. Lagattack the highly invested mafia player with a cool head is suddenly selling us anger after an opportunity presented itself (a la blonk)

    Do I buy it? Nope sounds like scum putting an extra layer of dirt on blinks grave. Mighty disrespectful

    But what really bothers me is the unapologetic hammer from you. That's just the move Varcron would do.

    When you play scum on the stupid level first instinct is "I can't be caught hammering!"

    But when you play on the gigabrain VARCRON level you realize that you have transcended hammering and that you can do as you please as scum. "Sure they may scumread me for it but I can calmly explain why it isn't a big deal and misdirect them with a bunch of question" varcron thought to himself

    SCUM, SCUM I SAY. vote lagattack or else
    What part of voting someone who thunderdome'd a sheriff is scummy. Like I honestly don't understand why everyone is saying I am scummy for it.

    There was an easy path for town to win. And blink decided to just ignore it - so yes, I will criticize him even when he's out of the game.

    My vote on blink was 100% the right vote.
  15. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    Holy shit you guys are fucking insane
    Plus blink hard-claimed sheriff too and then only backed down once he was at L-1. But apparently that makes me scum for wanting to lynch him.
  16. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Frinckles View Post
    LAGATTACK IS SELLING ANGER

    ALERT

    LAGATTACK IS SELLING ANGER

    looks fake to me
    You tell me what the value in that play was then. It literally makes no sense for blinkskater to do that. ceko rolled a fun role this game - sheriff, get's to lead the town to victory, there's no reason for a citizen to claim as sheriff because it just hurts town. He scumpainted me constantly when I said he was scum for doing what he did. Because the way he was playing was scummy.

    I said it time and time again, there is no reason for anyone but sheriff of mafia to claim sheriff.
  17. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    @LagAttack ARE YOU SCUM?!?
    No. Honestly fuck blinkskater with that play, it's a fucking stupid play that makes no sense to make as citizen other than he thinks game theory doesn't apply to him and he can do whatever the hell he wants.
  18. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    -vote blinkskater
  19. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Fucking at L-1 now myself. WHY AM I AT L-1 WHEN THERE'S LITERALLY A PERSON THAT HARD-CLAIMD SHERIFF JUST TO BACK OUT?
  20. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    @Varcron @theoneceko

    Can we please switch to blinkskater?
  21. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    so lag, u said something about always lynching someone in the thunderdome, even if one of them withdrew from the thunderdome.

    blink did that, so...

    blink is scum uwu
    Yes, so far we have had 5 sheriff claims.
    PQR's claim in retrospect looked to be a joke.
    blink actually did hard-claim it and then backed down
    ceko hard-claimed and is now un-CC'd sheriff
    Varcron claimed it and then backed down a few minutes later, definitely reads as a joke
    Oberon fake-hard-claimed it in a clever way.

    Sticking to the strategy, blink is the lynch.
  22. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    ;W;

    i'm still sad u said i was a lynch target for today.
    I'm sowwy ;w;
    I was just covering all my bases, that post about you was analyzing what motivation you would have to claim sheriff, ASSUMING you were scum. That assumption in my mind was a very far-fetched one, but it's still an important thing to consider.
  23. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Also for the record, I take Oberon's fake sheriff claim as NAI - he could have just as easily have done that as mafia. It's still a really clever play - he walked into a thunderdome with no exits but brought a teleportation device in with him.
  24. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    I wasn't going to do this but seeing as playing FM with this class of mind-frozen robots gets me scumread. Here. I breadcrumbed in my reveal post that I was lying.
    I haven't even gotten any info from my gambit because of your insane tunnelling.
    lol this is actually really clever
  25. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    Disagree, there's no need to lynch Ceko or Me. In fact the thunder dome is not blink vs ceko, it is blink vs his PoE. Lynch blink or someone in his PoE. If one flips town, lynch the other.
    I disagree with this one like 3 different levels. lol
  26. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    Ugh you guys are fucking morons, no offence. Ceko is a tunnelling retard who refuses to listen to reason and just gutvotes because he's terrified of evil blink pocketing him with an objectively awful play if he's Mafia. And on top of all that wants to hammer early because ??? Yeah I don't know, I'm lost. You lost me. None of it makes any sense and you are just fucking dolts.
    This is super uncalled for, when ceko is voting you because ceko claimed sheriff, and you CC'd the claim. Ceko is the one listening to reason here, and you are either scum, a citizen who thinks they are exempt from game theory, or sheriff that has no idea what's going on and doesn't want to lynch the fake sheriff claim
  27. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by Oberon View Post
    Ugh you guys are fucking morons, no offence. Ceko is a tunnelling retard who refuses to listen to reason and just gutvotes because he's terrified of evil blink pocketing him with an objectively awful play if he's Mafia. And on top of all that wants to hammer early because ??? Yeah I don't know, I'm lost. You lost me. None of it makes any sense and you are just fucking dolts.
    The problem with this line of reasoning, is that while the play is objectively bad if he's mafia. It's objectively SUPER awful if he's citizen. Same applies to your sheriff claim btw
  28. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    psshh. i hate it.

    i agree with the conclusion, but u haven't gone into detail about my sheriff claim and oberon's sheriff claim. the fact u wrote one sentence about how i could be sheriff, but wrote a paragraph on how i may be a power-wolfing scum, makes me look more likely to be scum xD.
    The post is analyzing a players motivation from their POV assuming they are that role. There's nothing to analyze when a sheriff claims sheriff. That's why it's short there.
  29. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Here's what I'm thinking right now, one of ceko/blink/oberon gets hammered today. I really, really don't think it's ceko given all that's happened. And especially since scum~blink, scum~Oberon seems very likely. And if one of them is town, then scum~blink easily can sway a town~Oberon, and scum~Oberon probably can sway a town~blink selling the point that he believed blink was town and knew that blink was just making his ridiculous play and so Oberon decided to bail blink out.

    Personally I want blink lynched first since I think his Sheriff claim as citizen makes almost zero sense, whereas a citizen~Oberon making that claim at least has a sliver of sense in it.

    But the scenario I'm afraid of is if we lynch blink first, is Oberon managing to steal a win off of that by claiming town cred regardless of how blink flips.
  30. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    @LagAttack UWU

    wanna hammer? UWU?!?

    oberon cc's my sherff claim but refuses to thnderdome me xD
    I want to hear your and Oberon's thoughts about my wall post first
  31. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    @LagAttack UWU

    wanna hammer? UWU?!?

    oberon cc's my sherff claim but refuses to thnderdome me xD
    UWOWU HEWWO!!!
  32. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    inb4Oberon scum paints me for making a wall post
  33. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Here is the hierarchy in which I analyze the game:

    1. Mechanics
    2. Motivation
    3. The Rest


    Someone that is mechanically confirmed is mechanically confirmed, a mechanically confirmed town is town 100% of the time, no matter how scummy they appear otherwise. A mechanically confirmed scum is scum 100% of the time, no matter how scummy they appear otherwise. Mechanically confirmed information takes precedence over everything.

    Most people seem to agree with mechanically confirmed information being most important.

    But where people seem to disagree is in what I think is the second most important part of analyzing other slots: Motivation.

    You have to assume that the other players in the game are (somewhat) rational actors - that is to say that they will do things that they think will advance their win-con as opposed to doing things that they think will work against their win-con. By analyzing the upsides and downsides of decisions from other players perspectives there is a LOT of useful information to be gained.

    And then the bottom rung in the hierarchy is everything else. I literally just participated in a game where 80% of the "tonal reads" "meta reads" etc etc were dead wrong and it lead to the first two lynches being town and a Templar lynch instead of a Darkness lynch. That stuff is only very marginally useful in comparison to the first two.

    Mechanics
    So right off the bat, we have 3 players hard-claim sheriff.

    It is very hard to imagine a scenario where the real sheriff is not one of these three players. Which means the remaining two players are either citizens or mafia.

    Additionally blink backed down from his sheriff hard-claim, so he is certainly not the real sheriff of the group.

    So let's analyze the motivations behind each sheriff claim to get more information.

    Motivations
    I'll start with blink because given what has happened he MUST be either mafia or citizen:

    blinkskater
    Citizen POV
    I'll link #186

    Town has a at least a 50% winrate assuming they follow the strategy that I outlined. 50% winrate is pretty great given that most mountainous setups have town winning only around 30% of the time, and Helz himself said he wouldn't play this setup because it's too scum favored. So 50% winrate given those facts IS great.

    If scum CC's sheriff and town sticks to the strategy then blink's first two points are protecting against a scenario which would increase town's winrate from 50% to 62.5%. Protecting against something which only helps town as a citizen is just silly, but since we're assuming blink is a citizen in this citizen POV, then that means blink just didn't realize the implications of a mafia CC'ing. Or he did and just didn't care.

    The rest of his points are about trying to bait out reactions or force mistakes. But tbh, doesn't even make that much sense from citizen~blink's POV. He HAD to have realized that I would commit to the optimal town strategy and only vote inside of the thunderdome. Which means he must have been banking on being able to convince the other two townies, including the real sheriff that he is CCing, that he is actually citizen and that they should totally lynch someone not in the thunderdome? I am seriously struggling to come up with a scenario where this play makes sense from a citizen~blink POV.

    The only one I can come up with is that blink is just so arrogant that he thinks that game theory itself doesn't apply to him and he can play however he wants. Which... is actually not that unlikely of a scenario, which just makes me even more pissed at blink.

    Scum POV
    I detailed this extensively in #104

    Given that blink thinks he can claim sheriff and then get out of it as either alignment. The difference is that there is marginal upside to this play when he does it as citizen, and a near instant-win for when he does it as mafia.

    theoneceko
    Citizen POV
    As I mentioned earlier claiming Sheriff as citizen just makes no sense. I know ceko respects my ability to analyze the game enough to never try that kind of play, especially since he knows there'd be nothing that could convince me to not thunderdome the two sheriff claims. Therefore ceko isn't citizen.

    Sheriff POV
    Of course you claim Sheriff if you're Sheriff, lol

    Scum POV
    I could actually see this happening... ceko playing in a way to suicide out of the game ASAP since he doesn't like playing scum. While simultaneously playing in a way that I wouldn't expect at all, making it so I trust ceko and mislynch the real sheriff. I think the motivation to play this way does exist for a mafia~ceko.

    Oberon
    Citizen POV
    Like I said before, when analyzing blink, the only people I can see making a Sheriff claim when they're citizen are people that are arrogant enough that they think game theory doesn't apply to them. Oberon half ticks that box for me given him letting MM reach L-1 in the last game with his fake red check. But Oberon's claim hits a little bit differently for me here. I could see Oberon reading blink as town and so now he's trying to discredit the Sheriff thunderdome by also claiming Sheriff and then eventually backing down, just like blink did.

    Sheriff POV
    Of course you claim Sheriff if you're Sheriff, lol

    Scum POV
    Realizing that blink is about to be lynched, claiming sheriff to try to get someone who hasn't claimed sheriff lynched makes a lot of sense for scum here as a hail mary play. Especially since he has the out that I described in my Citizen POV - he can act like he just thought blink was actually town. It makes a lot of sense because just like how claiming sheriff and backing down like blink did if we're in a citizen~oberon world would discredit the thunderdome, it discredits it just as much in a scum~oberon world.


    Conclusions:
    Analyzing the motivations of players that have claimed sheriff, from all of their points of view, claiming sheriff as citizen makes little sense, whereas it outlines a clear gameplan as mafia. I outlined a strategy that guarantees us at least a 50% winrate - but that falls apart if we don't think to the strategy. When someone hardclaims sheriff, they are in the thunderdome and the exits are sealed. The only way town can have a sub-50% winrate is by getting cold feet and not holding people to their hard claims.

    I think the mafia team is Oberon/blink with ceko as the real sheriff.
  34. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    he also threw shade at varcron, pqr, and me ufu
    i wasn't laughing at you. i was laughing at the fact you cleared things up for me OWO
    I'm talking his defense in that post - first two points were objective points.

    Point 3 was one quip about Varcron then the rest about me. Point 4 was about me putting him at L-1. Point 5 was another couple of quips about Varcron and then the rest about me.

    IMO his points about Varcron were kind of non-sense too since Varcron literally said he had real life stuff in another post. But Varcron is a null read for me and I want Varcron to defend himself to give me more reads on him.
  35. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    THE FUCKING OBJECTIVE WAY TO PLAY THIS SAVE:
    SHERIFF PUBLICALLY REVEALS

    IF NO ONE COUNTER CLAIMS, GREAT, SHERIFF LEADS TOWN.

    IF YOU GET TWO SHERIFF CLAIMS, EVEN BETTER, YOU LYNCH ONE SINCE THEY ARE SCUM AND THE OTHER IS REAL SHERIFF.

    THAT WHOLE STRATEGY DOESN'T WORK IF YOU LET ONE OF THE COUNTER CLAIMS OUT OF IT. THAT'S HOW YOU LET MAFIA WIN MORE OFTEN THAN TOWN - THAT'S WHY HELZ SAID IN THE SETUP THREAD THAT HE THINKS THE SAVE IS TOO SCUM FAVORED - BECAUSE PEOPLE GET COLD FEET AND LET SCUM GET AWAY WITH SHIT.


    But fuck me for wanting to stick to the optimal strategy, right? Apparently wanting to stick to the optimal strategy to win and pushing hard for the person I read to be far scummy in the thunderdome makes me scum.
  36. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    i did ;W;
    His entire defense was scumpainting me. Why do you laugh at me defending myself in response D:
  37. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by LagAttack View Post
    Scum CCing as Sheriff is good for town - as I said in my very first post, them doing that increases our winrate from 50% to 62.5%. This point is moot.

    Exact same point as #1, just dressed up in a different way. We WANT scum to CC Sheriff, that's a GOOD thing

    I literally made a wall post earlier in the thread EXPLAINING WHY I BELIEVED CEKO OVER YOU. Again another empty point

    Because every post you made came off as scummy. You kept trying to bring attention to people outside the thunderdome, you were critical of the (currently) un-CC'd Sheriff without wanting to commit to lynching ceko day 1. And then you un-claimed Sheriff. A play that makes no sense as anything but scum, this is another empty point.

    You mean town put you at L-1 because you objectively have made extremely suspect plays?

    Another ridiculous point, I literally said, day 1 what the strategy was - if two people claim Sheriff, we lynch one in the thunderdome, NO EXCEPTIONS. And then two people claimed Sheriff, and one of them appeared very scummy to me, and one appeared not scummy. And then the one that appeared very scummy to me suddenly retracted their Sheriff claim - exactly what a scum claiming Sheriff would do when they realized their gambit to steal a win was backfiring

    You've made literally no good points.

    Not to mention you literally did the exact same thing to me last game, scum paint me early on and then call me scum when I tunnel on you. (Although in this case this isn't even a tunnel, you claimed Sheriff, started a thunderdome, and are now trying to get out)
    @theoneceko
    read this please ;w;
  38. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by theoneceko View Post
    also, what is LTC?
    Lazy Town Citizen
  39. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    -vote unvote
  40. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Reasons for me instantly claiming sheriff when I'm LTC.

    1. I wanted the real sheriff to claim ASAP and not dilly dally around and give scum a chance to have a proper plan make the CC sheriff plan.
    2. I also wanted to hit scum with that news ASAP, to see how they would react before they got a chance to formulate a plan. Scum could choose not to CC here too which would be IMO smarter but I've tried this same thing before in a game called Secret Society.
    3. Reactions. I believe scum would react a certain way to an early sheriff claim. I was also hoping the real sheriff would CC right away because that would make scum really uncomfortable and not really know how to react naturally. Scum would want to likely avoid looking into the 2 town sheriff claims kind of like Varcron did. Lag's reaction was also pretty telling by INSTANTLY believeing ceko, while at the same time scumpainting every post I made while not trying to figure out my alignment at all. Lag auto believed ceko there lol.
    4. Mistakes. Scum here IMO reacted poorly and put me at L1 before Oberon even posted less that 6 hours into the game.
    5. I knew that scum would try to run with the "LTC" claiming sheriff here would be autLHo scum. It's an easy thing for them to run with. Lag took the bait there. Make yourself appear to be scummy to out the scum, it works almost everytime. Varcron avoided the town V town sheriff claims, If Obe doesn't claim sheriff and ceko's real this makes Varcron scum. Lag took the bait and ran with the LHF hanging outta his mouth like a kid running away from the cookie jar.

    TOWN
    PQR
    blink

    Null
    Oberon

    Scum
    Varcron
    Lagattack
    Scum CCing as Sheriff is good for town - as I said in my very first post, them doing that increases our winrate from 50% to 62.5%. This point is moot.

    Exact same point as #1, just dressed up in a different way. We WANT scum to CC Sheriff, that's a GOOD thing

    I literally made a wall post earlier in the thread EXPLAINING WHY I BELIEVED CEKO OVER YOU. Again another empty point

    Because every post you made came off as scummy. You kept trying to bring attention to people outside the thunderdome, you were critical of the (currently) un-CC'd Sheriff without wanting to commit to lynching ceko day 1. And then you un-claimed Sheriff. A play that makes no sense as anything but scum, this is another empty point.

    You mean town put you at L-1 because you objectively have made extremely suspect plays?

    Another ridiculous point, I literally said, day 1 what the strategy was - if two people claim Sheriff, we lynch one in the thunderdome, NO EXCEPTIONS. And then two people claimed Sheriff, and one of them appeared very scummy to me, and one appeared not scummy. And then the one that appeared very scummy to me suddenly retracted their Sheriff claim - exactly what a scum claiming Sheriff would do when they realized their gambit to steal a win was backfiring

    You've made literally no good points.

    Not to mention you literally did the exact same thing to me last game, scum paint me early on and then call me scum when I tunnel on you. (Although in this case this isn't even a tunnel, you claimed Sheriff, started a thunderdome, and are now trying to get out)
  41. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    No Citizen in their right mind claims Sheriff like blink did.

    Means he's either Sheriff or Mafia. But now he's not claiming Sheriff anymore. Therefore he's mafia.

    If you play this game where you assume that Citizens make plays like that, then you end up losing a LOT of games to Mafia that make plays like that, because the only roles that would claim sheriff are either sheriff or mafia.

    Not to mention scum~blink had a pretty clear winning strategy of thunderdome someone, then scumpaint someone else to the point of getting someone outside the thunderdome lynched.

    Either you're scum, or a citizen that has lost their mind.

    But you said yourself, you shouldn't assume players are trolling - so I guess I just have to assume you're scum.
  42. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    k
    -vote blinkskater
  43. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    LOL
    nice explanation, real good stuff
  44. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Go on blink, explain yourself.
  45. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Taking my vote off blink for now, to let him explain himself.

    -unvote
  46. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    Lmao no you didn't even ask for my reasons for doing what i did, you just auto vote me and say i cant be town because im not sheriff. You are further outting yourself as scum here.
    Tell me your reasons then. I'm not stopping you from trying to explain yourself
  47. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I don't have to be either sheriff or mafia.

    I can list you my reasons for doing what i did not that you even care because you put me at L1 before I could even say them LOL.
    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I'd rather not discuss it at this point in time the significance of these sheriff claims.

    I should have specified that I agreed with you ONLY on the fact Sheriff claiming right away increases towns WINRATE.

    There were also some scenarios you left out of your "plan." FM isn't always so black and white, "Follow my plan and we win." Every player in the game can legitimately say that.

    I literally asked you for these reasons before, and you just brushed it off, why the sudden change of heart??
  48. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Quote Originally Posted by blinkskater View Post
    I could be wrong on my pqr+varcron association.

    Putting someone at L1 this fast isn't town play.

    @LagAttack
    Claiming sheriff and then saying "jk I'm not sheriff" when you're about to be lynched isn't town play.

    If someone quick hammers you mid conversation that's just setting up a win-win for town. Either you are scum and the quick hammer is worth (which is what I see happening 99% of the time). Or it's scum trying to shut down conversation for the day and that hammer interrupting everyone is a big scummy thing to do in it of itself.

    Putting someone at L1 this fast isn't usually town play. But in this case it is
  49. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    Because there is no world in my mind where your play makes sense as a citizen.

    You have to either be Sheriff, or Mafia.

    And now you're saying you're not actually Sheriff... sooo that makes yoouuu...
  50. Forum:Archived S-FMs

    Thread:S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)

    Thread Author:OzyWho

    Post Author:LagAttack

    Replies
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    ►►Re: S-FM 328: Lazy (6P)◄◄

    -vote blinkskater
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