[QUOTE=Unknown1234;930898]You’re more often than not going to get a negative result that ends in you being executed n1 (which I unfortunately see happen to you a lot). Whether its because people think you’re evil or because they’re following a commonly known non-existent ‘mafia guideline’ created by players that most people use.
You mention that people will eventually realize you are town when you don’t claim, but I’ve seen people think differently and continue to kill based on the fact that you don’t claim in jail and you’re probably a troll. Not to mention it actually gives any kidnapper who knows you’re likely town an out on killing you (assuming there’s no spy). I think your theory could work in a perfect world where you can control every variable, but my guess is that if you obtained enough research for a solid conclusion that the result would be somewhere between a 10-20% survival rate.[/QUOTE]
Absolutely that's why I referenced Spite Jailors, or people who prefer who use Jailor as a way to kill who they wanna kill, but Spite Jailors don't really factor into anything in the thread because spite Jailors don't care what role you are they are just there to kill you in particular.
So the question of reveal role or not reveal role isn't relevant.
Originally Posted by Unknown1234
You’re more often than not going to get a negative result that ends in you being executed n1 (which I unfortunately see happen to you a lot). Whether its because people think you’re evil or because they’re following a commonly known non-existent ‘mafia guideline’ created by players that most people use.
You mention that people will eventually realize you are town when you don’t claim, but I’ve seen people think differently and continue to kill based on the fact that you don’t claim in jail and you’re probably a troll. Not to mention it actually gives any kidnapper who knows you’re likely town an out on killing you (assuming there’s no spy). I think your theory could work in a perfect world where you can control every variable, but my guess is that if you obtained enough research for a solid conclusion that the result would be somewhere between a 10-20% survival rate.
Absolutely that's why I referenced Spite Jailors, or people who prefer who use Jailor as a way to kill who they wanna kill, but Spite Jailors don't really factor into anything in the thread because spite Jailors don't care what role you are they are just there to kill you in particular.
So the question of reveal role or not reveal role isn't relevant.
[QUOTE=theoneceko;930822][COLOR="#00FF00"]jailors have a right to exec you n1 ffs. discussion closed[/COLOR][/QUOTE]
Also woah now. I never said anywhere that they didn't have a right to do that. Just how I have the same right to call them dumb and state they're objectively bad at math :)
Originally Posted by theoneceko
jailors have a right to exec you n1 ffs. discussion closed
Also woah now. I never said anywhere that they didn't have a right to do that. Just how I have the same right to call them dumb and state they're objectively bad at math
[QUOTE=Oberon;930808]This game is not about rolling the dice. Sorry, but you’re wrong. 90% town means you’re triad 10% of the time. I’m not giving you a pass just because you’re usually town.[/QUOTE]
The thing is though, Jailing is a choice and you only get one choice. So if you're choosing to jail a 90/10 split player you're an objectively bad jailor purposefully making a bad choice, so there's no need to "Give a pass" in this situation. Keep in mind we're talkin about blind n1 jails here so this is purely playing the odds here.
Originally Posted by Oberon
This game is not about rolling the dice. Sorry, but you’re wrong. 90% town means you’re triad 10% of the time. I’m not giving you a pass just because you’re usually town.
The thing is though, Jailing is a choice and you only get one choice. So if you're choosing to jail a 90/10 split player you're an objectively bad jailor purposefully making a bad choice, so there's no need to "Give a pass" in this situation. Keep in mind we're talkin about blind n1 jails here so this is purely playing the odds here.
[QUOTE=OzyWho;930775]This is a guy who argued half an hour in grave chat that he'll never claim his role, whilst also always preferring town roles + blacklisting evil roles + picking same name, all to teach everyone that he's always town, therefore shouldn't claim, therefore ruining the spirit of the game.
What I want to know is what is all this gibberish in this thread about when your real intentions for not claiming are entirely different?[/QUOTE]
Even in the scenario where I am not 94% Town Ozy, purposefully Jailing someone who you know doesn't give a role is suboptimal Jailor play. If you choose to do it it's just because you're exec happy and want a "guilt free" execute as opposed to potentially gathering information from someone who you know does claim.
So even in the circumstance where it's not me and not a player who is usually Town, failoring is not the optimal decision.
Originally Posted by OzyWho
This is a guy who argued half an hour in grave chat that he'll never claim his role, whilst also always preferring town roles + blacklisting evil roles + picking same name, all to teach everyone that he's always town, therefore shouldn't claim, therefore ruining the spirit of the game.
What I want to know is what is all this gibberish in this thread about when your real intentions for not claiming are entirely different?
Even in the scenario where I am not 94% Town Ozy, purposefully Jailing someone who you know doesn't give a role is suboptimal Jailor play. If you choose to do it it's just because you're exec happy and want a "guilt free" execute as opposed to potentially gathering information from someone who you know does claim.
So even in the circumstance where it's not me and not a player who is usually Town, failoring is not the optimal decision.
Guys the thread is titled should Honest Men reveal their roles. Literally everyone who has posted here is a known liar and therefore the thread doesn't apply to them. Hence the line at the end
"Now of course if you're a regular player of Mafia who is able to lie, this thread does not apply to you. As you can claim town as evil."
However this does let me know who read the full post so,
Props to LagAttack for reading the whole post!
However LagAttack obviously mathmatically claiming will result in less failorage but it'll be a constant. With the not claim strategy first off it's the best strategy against kidnapper scum, which is what you want as a townie, because fuck the mafia. "Eat a dick kidnapper" is the best response. Also the not claiming strategy has the potential to become better overtime, as opposed to claiming which as stated stays constant.
I don't have to be a rocket surgeon to say that Mafia does not have many new players, and the few casual players it has will learn overtime to not jail a man who is Town 94% of his games.
Keep in mind during all of this we are ignoring any spite jailors in the equation because spite jailors will execute regardless of role as most spite jailors are long timers who know that they are jailing someone who is 94% town but they execute anyway because they hate said player.
Overtime given enough samples the pool of failors will gradually shrink with the no claim strategy and become the optimal strategy. Which I think is something you missed in your initial evaluation LagAttack the future prospects of the strategy.
Guys the thread is titled should Honest Men reveal their roles. Literally everyone who has posted here is a known liar and therefore the thread doesn't apply to them. Hence the line at the end
"Now of course if you're a regular player of Mafia who is able to lie, this thread does not apply to you. As you can claim town as evil."
However this does let me know who read the full post so,
Props to LagAttack for reading the whole post!
However LagAttack obviously mathmatically claiming will result in less failorage but it'll be a constant. With the not claim strategy first off it's the best strategy against kidnapper scum, which is what you want as a townie, because fuck the mafia. "Eat a dick kidnapper" is the best response. Also the not claiming strategy has the potential to become better overtime, as opposed to claiming which as stated stays constant.
I don't have to be a rocket surgeon to say that Mafia does not have many new players, and the few casual players it has will learn overtime to not jail a man who is Town 94% of his games.
Keep in mind during all of this we are ignoring any spite jailors in the equation because spite jailors will execute regardless of role as most spite jailors are long timers who know that they are jailing someone who is 94% town but they execute anyway because they hate said player.
Overtime given enough samples the pool of failors will gradually shrink with the no claim strategy and become the optimal strategy. Which I think is something you missed in your initial evaluation LagAttack the future prospects of the strategy.
Something I've always gotten a lot of flak for has been the classic "Why don't you give role to Jailor?"
This is something that pre established mafia theory says one should do so why not?
Well to explain that we have to dive into how pure Honesty plays into this interaction.
If one is to be an Honest Man one doesn't have to always give the truth, but MUST never say something one knows to be false, IE tell a lie. Example claiming someone is an arsonist and that you visited them last night when you didn't. Claiming to be a role that you are not etc...
Now this poses a problem when being jailed because obviously if you are to remain Honest, giving your role all the time would not be beneficial to you.
For instance if you were a mafia or neutral role, giving your role in jail, obviously lets the Jailor know he's free to execute, which means giving role is basically borderline gamethrowing in these circumstances.
So what about "Just don't give role when you're evil" but this runs into the same problem where if the only time you don't give a role is when you're evil, you might as well have been claiming evil anyway.
Now if you're an Honest Man, you likely prefer town roles so you don't run into this problem, so logically you would think it makes sense to just claim roles all the time, and this would be the correct move, if Jailor was the only role that could kidnap people.
Unfortunately as well all know Interrogators exist complicating the situation.
If you prefer town and always give your role, Interros will consistently know they're making a good choice to execute you, so giving role all the time is bad then? Yes.
As a player who is often town, it becomes less likely for regular jailors who play mafia often to jail you as they expect you to be town. It also becomes more likely for interrogators to jail you as they believe you to be town, which is why it is best for the Honest Man to stay consistent , and not give a role in jail.
When doesn't know who is jailing them, assuming Interrogator is always beneficial as not giving information to the interrogator doesn't let them know if they've made the right choice, and potentially wastes an interro execute on a shitty role like a spy. Additionally some extremely cautious Interros, will not waste an execute on no role claimers potentially believing them to be fellow scum.
Of course there's always the chance a Jailor does jail you, and of course not giving a role is a death sentence right? Yes it is, but it's necessary operating risk. If you're a player who is often town, slowly regular Jailors overtime will understand that jailing you is essentially going to the slots and hoping they get lucky. After you proceed to roll town 9 times out of 10. This doesn't mean that you won't get jailed by failors, if you play mafia enough you'll eventually piss someone off who will spite jail you, but if you get spite jailed giving a role isn't going to save you. People who spite jail will care more about just getting to kill you, than they do about winning the game. Afterall if you've previously jailed a player and they were town 18 times out of 20, the only reason you would keep jailing them is if you disliked them or enjoyed executing town as a Jailor.
The final thing to note is that as an Honest Man it's important to be consistent. The only way regular players will learn about the new reality they find themselves in is consistent play, if you give a role only sometimes they won't be able to build a pattern from your behavior and will continue to jail you at a normal rate. You have to drill into them that if they choose to jail you, they are given a 1 in 10 chance of actually killing an evil and the only way to do that is by being consistent, and never claiming.
Now of course if you're a regular player of Mafia who is able to lie, this thread does not apply to you. As you can claim town as evil.
I only made it to explain why Honest Players can't operate under the same rules after months of "Why you never give role in Jail!1!31!!!!"
Shoutout to my spite jailors [MENTION=11402]invictus[/MENTION] @Clue [MENTION=8536]Altech[/MENTION] @Akaskr and others!
Something I've always gotten a lot of flak for has been the classic "Why don't you give role to Jailor?"
This is something that pre established mafia theory says one should do so why not?
Well to explain that we have to dive into how pure Honesty plays into this interaction.
If one is to be an Honest Man one doesn't have to always give the truth, but MUST never say something one knows to be false, IE tell a lie. Example claiming someone is an arsonist and that you visited them last night when you didn't. Claiming to be a role that you are not etc...
Now this poses a problem when being jailed because obviously if you are to remain Honest, giving your role all the time would not be beneficial to you.
For instance if you were a mafia or neutral role, giving your role in jail, obviously lets the Jailor know he's free to execute, which means giving role is basically borderline gamethrowing in these circumstances.
So what about "Just don't give role when you're evil" but this runs into the same problem where if the only time you don't give a role is when you're evil, you might as well have been claiming evil anyway.
Now if you're an Honest Man, you likely prefer town roles so you don't run into this problem, so logically you would think it makes sense to just claim roles all the time, and this would be the correct move, if Jailor was the only role that could kidnap people.
Unfortunately as well all know Interrogators exist complicating the situation.
If you prefer town and always give your role, Interros will consistently know they're making a good choice to execute you, so giving role all the time is bad then? Yes.
As a player who is often town, it becomes less likely for regular jailors who play mafia often to jail you as they expect you to be town. It also becomes more likely for interrogators to jail you as they believe you to be town, which is why it is best for the Honest Man to stay consistent , and not give a role in jail.
When doesn't know who is jailing them, assuming Interrogator is always beneficial as not giving information to the interrogator doesn't let them know if they've made the right choice, and potentially wastes an interro execute on a shitty role like a spy. Additionally some extremely cautious Interros, will not waste an execute on no role claimers potentially believing them to be fellow scum.
Of course there's always the chance a Jailor does jail you, and of course not giving a role is a death sentence right? Yes it is, but it's necessary operating risk. If you're a player who is often town, slowly regular Jailors overtime will understand that jailing you is essentially going to the slots and hoping they get lucky. After you proceed to roll town 9 times out of 10. This doesn't mean that you won't get jailed by failors, if you play mafia enough you'll eventually piss someone off who will spite jail you, but if you get spite jailed giving a role isn't going to save you. People who spite jail will care more about just getting to kill you, than they do about winning the game. Afterall if you've previously jailed a player and they were town 18 times out of 20, the only reason you would keep jailing them is if you disliked them or enjoyed executing town as a Jailor.
The final thing to note is that as an Honest Man it's important to be consistent. The only way regular players will learn about the new reality they find themselves in is consistent play, if you give a role only sometimes they won't be able to build a pattern from your behavior and will continue to jail you at a normal rate. You have to drill into them that if they choose to jail you, they are given a 1 in 10 chance of actually killing an evil and the only way to do that is by being consistent, and never claiming.
Now of course if you're a regular player of Mafia who is able to lie, this thread does not apply to you. As you can claim town as evil.
I only made it to explain why Honest Players can't operate under the same rules after months of "Why you never give role in Jail!1!31!!!!"
Shoutout to my spite jailors
@invictus
@Clue
@Altech
@Akaskr and others!
Originally Posted by Unknown1234
You’re more often than not going to get a negative result that ends in you being executed n1 (which I unfortunately see happen to you a lot). Whether its because people think you’re evil or because they’re following a commonly known non-existent ‘mafia guideline’ created by players that most people use.
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