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Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:35 PM

[QUOTE=Oberon;947667]What if both are scum[/QUOTE]
That's possible but shooting the other blindly after a scum flip might just end up with me twiddling my thumbs and looking stupid and becoming citizen.
If either flip scum I'm gonna shoot after looking over their posts and interactions again. If you think Gikkle/Paopan have equity as teammates I'd be interested to see an argument for it though

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:33 PM

Anyways, since I probably won't finish my process of elimination on teams, here's how I got from all 330 combinations to ~121, iirc. I can scratch more off after D3 and N3 flips.
[SPOILER=post]
Okay so I generated all 330 possible teams.
Then I removed all teams with MM but not PQR in it (see reasoning in previous post).
Next I removed all teams with Light, but not Luona or Mike (unless Mike is scum or Luona lies about their swap, there's no reason to distrust the green check).
Next I removed all teams with Light and Oberon, as that jailing makes no sense if they're S/S. Especially because he didn't execute so it wasn't even a bus.
At this point there are still 192 team combinations lol. Everything above everyone should agree with, hopefully.
Next, I removed all teams with Auwt, PQR, and MM in it. I disagree with Gikkle that Auwt would ever have PQR perform the kill "just in case" there's a lookout. A scum is getting caught either way, and sending PQ only invites the risk of getting blocked. In a world where Auwt/PQR are S/S, scum always hit either Frinckles or Oliver on N1 (I do not accept PQR doing a kill if Auwt is on the team), both of which guarantee MM to be town.
Then I removed all teams with neither Gikkle nor Paopan on them, because I don't think there is a world where both of them as town reach L-1 and don't die and now they're both at L-2. If you disagree with this too bad why don't you make all 330 teams and remove them yourself.
Now we have 121 teams.
[SPOILER=All 121 teams, yes actually, this is a very long spoiler]
Oliverz,MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan
Oliverz,MM,PQRnHack,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Auwt,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon
Oliverz,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Luona
Oliverz,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Mike
Oliverz,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Loldebite
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Oberon,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Luona,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,PQRnHack,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oliverz,Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon
Oliverz,Auwt,NotPaopan,Luona
Oliverz,Auwt,NotPaopan,Mike
Oliverz,Auwt,NotPaopan,Gikkle
Oliverz,Auwt,NotPaopan,Loldebite
Oliverz,Auwt,Oberon,Gikkle
Oliverz,Auwt,Luona,Gikkle
Oliverz,Auwt,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,Auwt,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oliverz,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona
Oliverz,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Mike
Oliverz,Light_Yagami,Luona,Gikkle
Oliverz,Light_Yagami,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Oberon,Mike
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Oberon,Gikkle
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Oberon,Loldebite
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Luona,Mike
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Luona,Gikkle
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Luona,Loldebite
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Mike,Loldebite
Oliverz,NotPaopan,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oliverz,Oberon,Luona,Gikkle
Oliverz,Oberon,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,Oberon,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oliverz,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
Oliverz,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oliverz,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon
MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Luona
MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Mike
MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Gikkle
MM,PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Loldebite
MM,PQRnHack,Oberon,Gikkle
MM,PQRnHack,Luona,Gikkle
MM,PQRnHack,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon
PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan,Luona
PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan,Mike
PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Auwt,NotPaopan,Loldebite
PQRnHack,Auwt,Oberon,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Auwt,Luona,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Auwt,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Auwt,Gikkle,Loldebite
PQRnHack,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona
PQRnHack,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Mike
PQRnHack,Light_Yagami,Luona,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Light_Yagami,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon,Mike
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon,Gikkle
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Oberon,Loldebite
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Luona,Mike
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Luona,Gikkle
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Luona,Loldebite
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Mike,Loldebite
PQRnHack,NotPaopan,Gikkle,Loldebite
PQRnHack,Oberon,Luona,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Oberon,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Oberon,Gikkle,Loldebite
PQRnHack,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
PQRnHack,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
PQRnHack,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
Auwt,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona
Auwt,Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Mike
Auwt,Light_Yagami,Luona,Gikkle
Auwt,Light_Yagami,Mike,Gikkle
Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona
Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon,Mike
Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon,Gikkle
Auwt,NotPaopan,Oberon,Loldebite
Auwt,NotPaopan,Luona,Mike
Auwt,NotPaopan,Luona,Gikkle
Auwt,NotPaopan,Luona,Loldebite
Auwt,NotPaopan,Mike,Gikkle
Auwt,NotPaopan,Mike,Loldebite
Auwt,NotPaopan,Gikkle,Loldebite
Auwt,Oberon,Luona,Gikkle
Auwt,Oberon,Mike,Gikkle
Auwt,Oberon,Gikkle,Loldebite
Auwt,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
Auwt,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
Auwt,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona,Mike
Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona,Gikkle
Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Luona,Loldebite
Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Mike,Gikkle
Light_Yagami,NotPaopan,Mike,Loldebite
Light_Yagami,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
Light_Yagami,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
Light_Yagami,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona,Mike
NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona,Gikkle
NotPaopan,Oberon,Luona,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Oberon,Mike,Gikkle
NotPaopan,Oberon,Mike,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Oberon,Gikkle,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
NotPaopan,Luona,Mike,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
NotPaopan,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oberon,Luona,Mike,Gikkle
Oberon,Luona,Gikkle,Loldebite
Oberon,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
Luona,Mike,Gikkle,Loldebite
[/SPOILER]
[/SPOILER]

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:30 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947662]so gikkle town-> you shoot paopan.
gikkle scum-> you shoot x??[/QUOTE]
Gikkle town -> Paopan gets shot, yes.
Gikkle scum -> would have to think about that a bit, as in who Gikkle has teammate equity with. Maybe Luona for being so closely paired to Gikkle for so long. I'd probably go back over his posts during night for spew/TMI and interactions that look wolfy.
Will not shoot the other of Pao/Gikkle if one flips scum.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:25 PM

[QUOTE=Oberon;947660]Who will you shoot if Gikkle flips Town.
Who will you shoot if Paopan flips Town (lol)[/QUOTE]
I'm shooting the other one if one flips town.
Unless someone has a convincing argument for both of them being town (and don't mention Gikkle's where his team pairings are almost all impossible as I've gone over already), in which case I'll shoot a scumread.

If you want to go the boring route I can just shoot wherever town consensus is, don't really care.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:22 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947654]I didnt knew it too lol, and never saw jmw saying it.
i always thougth the chat is always open.
is it open rn too?[/QUOTE]
No day chat and no n0.
It is only open during nights.
so no, it is not open right now.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:21 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947655]Were there any points where you said this in the thread, though?[/QUOTE]
Don't know and too lazy to check.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:21 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947647]It shows you don't have the intention to solve the wagons. I have literally never seen you mention it. Apparently, according to the thing PQR quoted, it's EVERY day! That's huge! I would have thought, at the very least, that you bring it to attention at multiple points such that it becomes public knowledge. You don't even need to bring it up; even you talking about the wagons in context of this would have been enough. But none of your posts have ever given me that impression. It shows a lack of townie intention. I'm convinced you're scum now lol.

I don't have an active role, and this is an open setup. I don't need to ask questions nor do I need to know the OOO. Only thing I read were the roles I didn't already have a grasp on.[/QUOTE]
I found an instance of it in our card sharp chat, mentioned it to both Mike and PQ who can confirm. Where I explicitly used it to solve to Frinckles/Pao not S/S on the basis of his last second vote on the wagon.
Don't care though, seems you will tunnel on this, if I get lynched so be it and you can be next. As you can probably tell I don't have the energy for a back and forth like this.
My vote stays on you, if Pao hits L-1 maybe I vote there and shoot you tomorrow.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:17 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947645]I absolutely confirm that jmw read the setup and knew that there was no day chat. Not sure about N0, tho.[/QUOTE]
(That one post that you can search for mentions D1 and N0 explicitly, but Gikkle can't see that anyway)

This mechanic was literally part of my not S/S Pao Frinckles association. PQ and Mike can confirm, not that Gikkle cares. He just doesn't want himself lynched lol

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:14 PM

[QUOTE=Oberon;947639]I’m very confused, where is the slip? It’s typical for Mafia not to share a night chat on n0/d1.[/QUOTE]
He thinks I've slipped because I know mafia had no d0 chat but he doesn't remember me saying anything about it, which must mean I never used it in any of my solving, which means I'm scum or something??

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:13 PM

[MENTION=12998]PQRnHack[/MENTION] do me a favor please.
Head to the N1 saloon chat, and search for "60 seconds".
Then, paraphrase what was said in the one post that shows up, and who that post was by.

[MENTION=27614]Mike[/MENTION] if you come online you can help me with this too.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:09 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947628]I mean Jmw think about this
Scum not being able to communicate for all of day 1 is a MAJOR thing. Like, in terms of vote count analysis? I'd expect T!Jmw to bring this up MANY times. The fact you didn't shows a lot about your intentions.[/QUOTE]
Does it really?
Are my intentions to hide my team's discoordination during the first day by not saying it enough times?
(This argument is a fallacy, but) if I bring it up once or twice, is that considered scummy? How many times is MANY to where you'd find it townie?
Should I have put lag's answer in my signature just to make sure everyone can see it?

I'm not trying that hard this game my guy.

(And also, how have you not seen this implied in the OOO or asked about it yourself, as one who is known to ask mods a ton of questions and read into the setup heavily as both alignments?)

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:01 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947625]Man so many slips, which one lied cuz mafia?[/QUOTE]
Good question, why don't you do your part and tell us who you think are the scumbag liars?

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:59 PM

great now Gikkle's pushing me because I was more observant than he was

welp I'm not about to search my own ISO for something I've said, surely someone has the quote

we lynch either Gikkle or Pao here, and if our lynch flips green I shoot the other one.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:57 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947617]mmm

I haven't seen any solving based on this though.... When did you say it before?[/QUOTE]
I don't know I just remember saying it because I remember typing that D1 would be the best for analysis
don't make me search my own ISO please

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:54 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947613]I didn't know scum had no day chat day 1 (though there's precedent; iirc scum had no day 1 chat in previous SC2 mafia games I played in)
This may be a game changer if true lol
This would explain why scum couldn't get a lynch off day 1. They couldn't coordinate their votes.
Even if this isn't a scum slip, Jmw thinks Me/Paopan is definitely S/T despite the fact scum couldn't coordinate day 1.

[VOTE]Jmw[/VOTE][/QUOTE]
It's not that hard to vote a town member.
Doesn't matter if there's coordination or not, anyone who hasn't locked themselves out of voting for an option can vote it. Scum would hammer a townie if they had the chance to do so.
And I've already explained why all the possible teams you've outlined in that scenario are impossible at worst to very unlikely at best. You and Paopan are never T/T.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:52 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947611]Is this a scum slip? I don't see this said anywhere in the OP or anything. Am I missing something?[/QUOTE]
I asked Lag in my pm, but yes we'll call it a scum slip despite the fact I have already said this before.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:51 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947603]Veteran can't be sheriff checked. That's as simple as it gets. If someone is going to get caught, it ought not to be the one immune to sheriff checks.[/QUOTE]

Or you just... attack where you think lookout isn't?

this is so weird, I can't follow this thought process
as scum why wouldn't you just... do your best to choose kills where you [B]won't[/B] get caught or make sure the Lookout can't watch you?

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:41 PM

[QUOTE=jmw;947600]How does having PQR do the kill instead of Auwt absolve the concern at all? You're not doing anything to lessen the risk of being caught, only having a different person be caught. Why are you assuming you know Auwt, on a team with PQR, would try to make PQR do the kill instead because he's worried about the lookout and doesn't want to get caught but instead go deep?

That's a very specific scenario that seems kind of dumb to me as you're just opening yourself to possibilities of interference for little to no benefit. I see scum having a veteran on the team just have the veteran do the kills, not "there's still a lookout and we want vet to go deep so let's toss the card sharp to do a kill tonight just in case!"

Unless you have some significant amount of experience playing with Auwt and think this is likely to come from him, this just looks like you reaching to justify a T/T scenario for if/when Pao flips green.[/QUOTE]
Not to mention you are now trying to get Luona to vote Pao because... there's exactly one team possibility on which Pao could be scum from a Luona POV. (You don't even think MM is scum...)
You're not explaining why that team is likely for Luona to vote Pao, but asking her to vote, just because it exists. Guess I should vote you because there's 120 possible scumteam combinations you could be on, hmm?

Luona's opener as a relatively new player (at least to this site from what I have inferred) and immediately buddying with you for several days actually makes more sense if you two are paired since scum had no n0 or day chat.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:30 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947594]With a lookout in the setup, [I]I'd[/I] be more concerned about it than a roleblocker, who already publicly said they'd be on you. Why are you assuming you know what this potential scum team was thinking in that regard?[/QUOTE]
How does having PQR do the kill instead of Auwt absolve the concern at all? You're not doing anything to lessen the risk of being caught, only having a different person be caught. Why are you assuming you know Auwt, on a team with PQR, would try to make PQR do the kill instead because he's worried about the lookout and doesn't want to get caught but instead go deep?

That's a very specific scenario that seems kind of dumb to me as you're just opening yourself to possibilities of interference for little to no benefit. I see scum having a veteran on the team just have the veteran do the kills, not "there's still a lookout and we want vet to go deep so let's toss the card sharp to do a kill tonight just in case!"

Unless you have some significant amount of experience playing with Auwt and think this is likely to come from him, this just looks like you reaching to justify a T/T scenario for if/when Pao flips green.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:13 PM

Anyone have any arguments for any pairings that wouldn't be S/S
or pairings that can't be T/T

started with all 330 scum teams, I'm at 121 right now
(I will explain my logic for going from 330 possibilities to 121 in a post where I get the possible teams down to something reasonable, so I can post the conclusions at the same time)

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:10 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947583]I just did provide her a correct team to her PoV. MM/Paopan/Auwt/PQR.[/QUOTE]
This is not a team ever, sorry to say it.
Auwt just doesn't have PQ do the kill because Auwt wants to go deep and they're being as safe as possible vs lookout lol. Opening themselves up to roleblocks which is ironically less safe than just having Auwt do the kills. The logic doesn't make sense.
And with MM on the team, Auwt/PQR team has no reason to not have a kill N1 unless you think they holster.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:39 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947568]wow his readlist was like:
here are all ppl who voted me, there are 4 scum in it. Choose them yourself
if you call that analysis, you have very low expectations[/QUOTE]

That was not the reads list I was referring to:
[SPOILER= Post][QUOTE=NotPaopan;946198][SIZE=5][B][COLOR="#00FF00"]ANNOUNCEMENT: [/COLOR][COLOR="#EE82EE"]LORD MAYOR PAOPAN SPEAKING!! [/COLOR][/B][/SIZE]
[SIZE=4][B][COLOR="#00FFFF"]DAY 2 FIELD REPORT 卐 [/COLOR][/B][/SIZE]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"][B]jmw[/B][/COLOR]
- I don't feel too good about this slot. He is very cautious about his image.
- My opinion on this slot might change depending on his night action. My advice... Play it like a "Go big or go home"
- I'm anxious if he's going to shoot PQ tonight or no.

[COLOR="#FF0000"][B]Gikkle[/B][/COLOR]
- This train. Omfg why is it so hard to push this train??? Holy shit I'm pushing this.
- Lynching this slot will provide us with a lot of information. I'm not moving my vote out of here.

[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]oliverz144[/COLOR][/B]
- This guy... Srly post is full of IIoA. In any case, I don't feel anything for this slot to be a town.
- Heavily defends Gikkle. Either he knows Gikkle is 100% town or teammates with him as Bandit. In any case, I don't feel anything for this slot to be a town.

[B][COLOR="#FF8C00"]Marshmallow Marshall[/COLOR][/B]
- I really don't understand this slot. Pushed me even before I started my first post in this game. And still voting me until now.

[COLOR="#FF8C00"][B]Oberon[/B][/COLOR]
- I told him to execute me to provide town info. Yet he didn't. Makes no sense to jail me smh. +scum points
- He claims to me in jail that Gikkle is scum; oliver town. Yet didn't vote Gikkle on day 2. +major scum points
- loldebite said that he "RBed" PQ and he instantly voted PQ. Opportunity much?? [#1170]

[COLOR="#FFA500"][B]Loldebite [/B][/COLOR]
- Pretty sus when he considers luona and Oberon as his town core. His list doesn't make sense to me. [#1166]
- Claimed RBing PQ. So probably an info we might need in the ff. days or maybe tonight (vig???)

[COLOR="#FFD700"][B]PQRnHack[/B][/COLOR]
- This slot is now getting in the spotlight due to having no n1 kill and him getting roleblocked.
- Still not convinced, maybe Mafia did not attack and intends to play a long game.

[COLOR="#00FF00"][B]Auwt[/B][/COLOR]
- Didn't get along with him on initially on day 1. But his scum list matches mine. The lord mayor recognizes Auwt, as a town.

[COLOR="#00FF00"][B]Light_Yagami && Mike[/B][/COLOR]
- The Lord Mayor considers bo Towncore due to mechanics. PoV might change, I'm an assessor and they're going for KPI evaluation in the upcoming days.

[COLOR="#FFFF00"][B]Frinckles[/B][/COLOR]
- Possibly attacked on night 1. Slight chance, but it might have. +town points
- Voted me at the last second on EoD1. Probably drunk again, NAI.

[B][COLOR="#FFFF00"]Luona[/COLOR][/B]
- Null reads for now... Role slot is too valuable to lynch or kill at this stage. Have no idea about this slot to be honest

Oh yeahhhh... Can post like this during weekends. We must carry out a great struggle with many contemporary features. Having the courage to fight and the fortitude to win is what has made our party invincible. Realizing our great dream will require hard work and persistence. Today, we are closer, more confident, and more capable than ever before of making the goal of national rejuvenation a reality. But we must be prepared to work harder than ever to get there.

[B][SIZE=3]HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! HEIL PAOPAN! [/SIZE][/B][/QUOTE]

[/SPOILER]

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:32 PM

Any team with MM on it but not PQR on it is literally impossible.
Night one, MM is scum, he tells his buddies he's protecting Frinckles. Scum never hit him (so oliver being attacked via swap is impossible) and never hit his target to make him look better (same as holstering, dumb and not a possibility I'm considering), so the only explanation for no scum nightkill is PQ getting blocked. There's no other possibility that makes sense.

So if you're going to put a team with MM on it, PQR should be on it as well.
(That said, don't fall for a gap in logic, you can have a team with PQR on it without MM on it, just not the other way around)

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:29 PM

[QUOTE=jmw;947559]Actually, one note
Auwt/PQ is never teamed [U]if PQ was carrying out the kill and got blocked.[/U] If scum hit Frinckles or Oliver N1, then Auwt/PQ pairing possible.[/QUOTE]
Which means Auwt/PQ pairing guarantees MM being town, as scum won't hit MM's protected target or attack MM if he's scum duh.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:28 PM

[QUOTE=jmw;947557]I don't understand this argument
Lookout is not follower. If they are worried about a lookout watching a target, why would they send a different member to do the kill instead of, switching to a target they're not worried about LO watching.
Auwt/PQ is never teamed. Auwt would always perform the kill here until found. Who the lookout finds doesn't really matter as your goal is to not hit the lookout watch anyway. The only reason to send PQ in instead of Auwt is a suicide 1 for 1 because they need a kill on a slot that LO is likely watching. And that's not a scenario that happens N1 especially with a no lynch all roles alive.[/QUOTE]
Actually, one note
Auwt/PQ is never teamed [U]if PQ was carrying out the kill and got blocked.[/U] If scum hit Frinckles or Oliver N1, then Auwt/PQ pairing possible.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:26 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947540]If Paopan is town, yes, that's what would have happened. Why would you think PQR would get RBed? Loldebite publicly said he'd RB Jmw. You would have been more concerned about the lookout.[/QUOTE]
I don't understand this argument
Lookout is not follower. If they are worried about a lookout watching a target, why would they send a different member to do the kill instead of, switching to a target they're not worried about LO watching.
Auwt/PQ is never teamed. Auwt would always perform the kill here until found. Who the lookout finds doesn't really matter as your goal is to not hit the lookout watch anyway. The only reason to send PQ in instead of Auwt is a suicide 1 for 1 because they need a kill on a slot that LO is likely watching. And that's not a scenario that happens N1 especially with a no lynch all roles alive.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:21 PM

If I turn my brain off my gut tells me the team is MM/Gikkle/Luona/Oliver.
When I turn my brain back on, no N1 kill makes this team impossible. They could easily get a kill anywhere.

I still don't believe any combo of 4 bandits ever no kills. So either PQ is scum and blocked, or they hit Frinckles/Oliver and no kill.
In former world, PQ is scum, so Loldebite is town almost always. In the latter world, MM is always town.
If I believe MM is scum, then I am forced to accept that scum didn't hit Frinckles or Oliver N1, and that PQ is also scum (because again I think no mafia team ever no kills n1 like this, so the only way for mafia to not get a kill is if the killer was roleblocked). So in MM scum world, PQ is scum, Loldebite is town, Auwt is town (Auwt never has PQ perform the kill here, if Auwt wouldn't attack a target for fear of lookout why would PQ attack that target in fear of lookout? PQ is just more vulnerable to being blocked...)

So my Gikkle scumteam theory decreases

Next theory, what if I flip my own argument and Gikkle is very townie (since as much as I try, I can never see T/T Gikkle and Pao, as it relies on exactly ONE pairing where scum Oberon doesn't execute the town mayor who literally asked him to do it)?
Then Pao is scum, and who does he fit on a team with..?
PaoPan/Luona/PQrnHack/??? team???
In a world where Pao flips scum here, and Gikkle is town, Oliverz is either white knighting Gikkle or is town and has a very good read
But do I think Oliverz busses and white knights at the same time when they are not in a good deepwolf position? No.

So in Gikkle town world, Pao is scum, Oliverz is town. Then Auwt looks a lot worse for being on Pao D1, but switching off onto Gikkle when I got a Pao train started (I actually don't remember if I started the real train but let's say I did).
If Pao and Auwt are teamed, then PQRnhack could be scum, but didn't do the nightkill. So Pao/Auwt scum in Gikkle town world, and scum hit Frinckles or MM on D1 (either way, MM town here). If they hit Oliver, then Luona isn't scum.

None of this makes any sense let's just flip both Gikkle and Pao and solve from there....

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:08 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947523]look what he quoted. A read list, from who?
gikkle.
which means gikkle tries to solve the game, even if its kinda, ugh, not working.
and guess who didnt make such analysis?
PAOPAN![/QUOTE]
Oliver/Pao never S/S and Gikkle/Oliver S/S becoming a lot more likely right now.
PaoPan also made a reads list in case you've forgotten.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 01:05 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947538][MENTION=45983]jmw[/MENTION]
why are you on gikkle, i thaught you scumread paopan?[/QUOTE]
They're both scummy and I want one dead.
Right now, I'm leaning toward Gikkle.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 11:25 AM

NotPaopan (6 [L-1]):
Oberon, Mike, Gikkle, oliverz144, Loldebite, Marshmallow Marshall

Thoughts on this wagon being pure? (hint: it's not)

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 11:23 AM

I'll hammer Pao if it comes down to it but not until day is about to end.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 11:22 AM

[VOTE]Gikkle[/VOTE]

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 11:20 AM

[QUOTE=Auwt;947460]Let me just go ahead and remove the incorrect teams really quickly :[/QUOTE]
Good post

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 10:02 AM

[QUOTE=Marshmallow Marshall;947449]Wasn't I scum to you earlier today? What made you magically change your mind? Your example doesn't even require to use [I]me[/I] specifically, but just any townread you supposedly have... so your reads are absolutely not honest lol.

This is caught scum at this point.[/QUOTE]
What do you mean that the example is interchangeable? Doesn't it refer to Luona's stated N1 swap specifically?

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 10:00 AM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947443]add at the end Luona/PQR/Oberon/Auwt too, which is technically possible. Oberon stepped on PQR's toes a bit but that could be intentional distancing.[/QUOTE]
Oh and this team possibility.
In this world, still need an explanation for no kill N1 and the options are very few.
You are basically limited to scum Auwt attacking Frinckles N1. Not entirely impossible I guess.
But in this world, a scum Oberon jailed Paopan and didn't execute - why?

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 09:58 AM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947441]
Luona/Jmw/Oberon/Auwt
MM/Luona/Oberon/Auwt
MM/Luona/Auwt/Jmw
MM/PQR/Auwt/Jmw
MM/PQR/Oberon/Auwt[/QUOTE]
Let me just go ahead and remove the incorrect teams really quickly...

MM/Luona/Oberon/Auwt
MM/PQR/Oberon/Auwt

Now you have this.
First one, easily eliminated, if Luona and MM are both scum and PQR isn't then there is 0 explanation for scum having no kill N1. Don't say they holstered.
Second team never happens either because Auwt would perform any kill instead of PQR. And they wouldn't hit Frinckles because MM is scum and healing there. And they wouldn't have been swapped onto Oliver as that implies they nightkill their own teammate.

Your analysis here actually just says to me that you/Pao is impossible to be T/T because I know I'm town and the teams you have that make a T/T possible that don't include me can be easily eliminated with logic.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 03:02 AM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;947346]i thaught you town lean me?
and now im in poe?
and you safe auwt?[/QUOTE]
I wouldn't say you're necessarily PoE but I'm not towncoring you.

I'm also not "safe"ing auwt. The guy has not done much of anything productive other than sneer at everyone from his high horse but flipping him here doesn't really help us a lot.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:55 AM

[QUOTE=NotPaopan;947278]Gikkle, Oliver, Loldebite, Oberon, MM, Luona

A total of 6 players, 4/4 [COLOR="#FF0000"]bandits [/COLOR]are in here. 2 townies are here, but a lost lamb.[/QUOTE]
I don't really think all 4 bandits are necessarily in this pool either, but it's a better one than Gikkle's pool at least.

Lumi · October 12th, 2021, 02:51 AM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947254]If I'm right about Loldebite/Light Yagami/MM/Oliverz/Mike, I think we can win this game... I mean I have my doubts about Lolde/MM/Oliverz but I feel like they aren't an immediate priority.

Oberon/Jmw/PQR/Luona/Paopan/Auwt

2/3rds of these are the scum. I invite people to, even if they disagree with what I am saying, pick the two town out of here. Even if you disagree that the scum are all limited in this pool. Work with me here, please.[/QUOTE]
Myself and PQR, but this is an awful pool and idk why you're having doubts on people but saying scum have to be outside of those players?
MM and Oliverz should not be outside this pool, and if you think I'm scum then this pool is automatically bust unless you think the team is Vigi / Jailor / Veteran / Coach Driver lol.

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:53 PM

Wow, this site doesn't auto collapse large quotes. Well enjoy that accidental wall from me.

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:53 PM

[QUOTE=oliverz144;946163]My thoughts rn:
- jmw town lean. The no vig proofed this. He can be lying, tho

- luona town. She is just a noob like me, we are both rookies. I cant see luona faking town that good as a newbie. No hurting intented.

- mike and ly share their alignment.
there are 4 theoretical possibilities:
A) mike scum~ly town
B) mike scum~ly scum
C) mike town~ly scum
D) mike town~ly town
a. If mike scum, whats the point in confing a townie? None.
b. If mike is scum, he would have saved a scummate, which means ly is scum.
c. if mike is town, and he got a "scum allied" response, why would he hide it? Thats completely illogical
d. If mike is town, he didnt lie and got "town" response from ly, which means ly is town too.
all bussings etc. were neglected.

- pqrn town. Its a meta read, i see through my russian brother as clear as through empty glass. Impulsive, but good intention.

- frinckles is interesting. Voting and guarding the same person?!
what if jmw did the vig on paopan? Jailing doesnt prevent from death, read the set-up. If jmw would have done what his voting required to do, we would have got a real mess.
same goes for all the "good ideas for scum" and the "lolbit chooses the lynch"
considering the second: WHAT IF the mafia didnt decide to kill? Or YOU where attacked, and mm healed?
ive seen ai posts from both fractions, town and scum.
this almost always indicates a wolf trying to fake town behaviour.

- mm, The wolf (pun towards avatar).
you have been so towny. To towny to be a town? A deepwolf? Who knows...

- oberon. You are a null, and thats not due to lacking information.
you voted gikkle, which is ,in itself, interesting. However, you jailed the OTHER TRAIN! This again, makes no sense. Are you that "good" at creating reads, that your only possible scum reads are the 2 top wagons?
if so, WHY DIDNT YOU EXECUTE??!?!
wasnt sure. WASNT SURE??!?!?
i dont know what tn think about you. Looks like you are lost.

- loldebite. You are kinda, ugh, inactive. Every person, or should i say every TOWN, is interested in finding out whether they survived or not. You somehow dont.

tl/dr
the situation almost equals yesterday. No conf reads. But a lot more soup, swamp, milk, call it whatever you want.
no lynch d1, no kill n1. This can go on forever
and this remembers me of the unsolvable gordonian string salad. Only help is an "alexander the great" who takes out his sword and kills the knot.

(and this is a metapher for a needed kill/lynch)[/QUOTE]
Okay nevermind I actually like this post I don't remember thinking anything along the lines of what Gikkle did but I'll stop annoying him about the read.
Wouldn't towncore this tho.

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:49 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947062]Because they have been very helpful and has gotten into the thick of things to the point of being SRed for it at multiple points. Like it seems like Oliverz is speaking their mind which is townie imo[/QUOTE]
Helpful how? Gotten into the thick of things where, and how has this resulted in being SR'd versus just being SR'd for being overly defensive and buddying with MM / defending you?
And where would you say it seems Oliverz is speaking their mind and on what? How does it seem that way?

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:44 PM

[QUOTE=Gikkle;947054]oliverz144/Marshmallow Marshall/Oberon/Mike/Auwt/Jmw/PQR/Luona/Paopan

Somehow, we managed to have a massive PoE in D3. Great. Loldebite/Light Yagami are, IMO, the only ones really not in the PoE. Oliverz/MM are both not in the immediate PoE.

Oberon/Mike/Jmw/PQR/Luona/Paopan/Auwt

Mike's only clearing interaction is that he can't be scum with both PQR and one of Paopan/Jmw. I don't think S!PQR invites more than one fellow scum to the card chat.
Oberon very likely isn't scum with Paopan or PQR, just based on the fact he jailed Paopan, and PQR has tried to invite the people Oberon has jailed.
Paopan can't be scum with Jmw or Oberon, plus he also can't be scum with both PQR and one of Mike/Jmw
Jmw can't be scum with Paopan, and probably isn't scum with PQR on the basis of TMI.
Luona has no real clearing interactions.
Oberon/Auwt just felt like scum theatre so I'm not willing to make an interaction read based on it

[B]Scenarios where scum attacked Frinckles because they had Bus Driver backing them up:[/B]

Luona/Jmw/Oberon/Auwt

Luona/Oberon/Auwt/Mike

Luona/Auwt/Mike/PQR

Luona/Paopan/Auwt/PQR

Luona/Jmw/Mike/Oberon

Luona/Jmw/Mike/Auwt

Luona/Mike/Auwt/Paopan

For MM, just replace the "Luona" parts and replace it with MM. it's unlikely that both Jmw and Mike are their scum buddies based on their discussions about him, so you can remove the bottom two. Oliverz also enters the PoE, as they have kinda buddied MM a few times. PQR is also unlikely to be MM's buddy, as there were a few times it almost looked like MM knew PQR would flip town.

So a few alternatives show up:

MM/Oliverz/Jmw/Luona

MM/Oliverz/Auwt/Oberon

MM/Oliverz/Mike/Oberon

MM/Luona/Paopan/Auwt

MM/Luona/Oberon/Auwt

MM/Louna/Auwt/Jmw

+ a few others I can't be bothered to write out now

Based on this, I think the optimal lynch order would be Luona > Auwt (if Luona flips mafia. If not, then MM should be next on the chopping block.) > Oberon > we decide based on where we are at this point.

Interaction wise, Auwt and Luona fit in a LOT of different teams, and have independently not been very townie. Oberon and Mike also fit into quite a bit. Jmw and PQR fit into a few. Paopan actually doesn't fit in a lot at all; like, he probably fits in the least.

[VOTE]Luona[/VOTE]

I'm gonna trust the town core of Lolde/Light/Marshmallow/Oliverz. Don't fail me now![/QUOTE]
Why exactly is Oliverz in the towncore..?

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:31 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947044]Dont worry about it you didnt generate an excuse for your game. So it dont matter. Next! Quiz me, maybe.[/QUOTE]
just make a reads list that's simple isn't it

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:27 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947041]What area are you an expert in?[/QUOTE]
I'm a college student without a degree yet so realistically nothing.
But I have some experience in the Computer Science field.

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:26 PM

[QUOTE=Mike;947040]Why lie I give a crap what people think.[/QUOTE]
I believe you was just making a joke

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:25 PM

As cool as entrepreneurial stuff is maybe we should focus on the game

[VOTE]Oberon[/VOTE]

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:23 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947029]How do you know he owns a business?[/QUOTE]
He said so, and no one would ever lie on the internet Kappa

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:22 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947027]I don't like dirty business[/QUOTE]
Are you a vegan or something I don't understand

Lumi · October 11th, 2021, 05:21 PM

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;947025]Sadly, yes. Fucker must have a really shity job to know this shit.[/QUOTE]
He owns a business man why you gotta rag on my boy Mike like that

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