Search:

[IMG]https://i.ytimg.com/vi/xWSnt4avYZw/hqdefault.jpg[/IMG]

[QUOTE=Marshmallow Marshall;952312]I will refrain from repeating what I have already said, so I will just say ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/46056-FM-Ladder-Season-7[/url]
there is the ladder thread btw. Not that scary :P[/QUOTE]

Damn, if I had seen that earlier, I would have voted Frinckles even sooner.

And how the heck are you tied for 1st with that tunneling on me this game :( I am still a little upset. I became suspicious of you D2, but at least I kept an open mind, I didnt OMGUS D1 on you. It seemed like you drew a conclusion that I'm scum and that was it and you were having none of any other alternatives :(

Scoring system is kinda crap since players who play more get naturally rewarded. But anyway i dont care about ladder, I came here for the fun :)

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

I will refrain from repeating what I have already said, so I will just say ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...adder-Season-7
there is the ladder thread btw. Not that scary :P

Damn, if I had seen that earlier, I would have voted Frinckles even sooner.

And how the heck are you tied for 1st with that tunneling on me this game I am still a little upset. I became suspicious of you D2, but at least I kept an open mind, I didnt OMGUS D1 on you. It seemed like you drew a conclusion that I'm scum and that was it and you were having none of any other alternatives

Scoring system is kinda crap since players who play more get naturally rewarded. But anyway i dont care about ladder, I came here for the fun

[QUOTE=Stealthbomber16;952309]I don't think that anyone takes the ladder remotely seriously. It's just a series of games.

If you're having fun, I'd be glad to have you back. Don't feel bad. Can't win them all.[/QUOTE]

^ this
I dont even know what ladder means exactly or where such scoreboard is. I just came for the fun and for the win, got 1 of those 2 goals met :)
You said 5 games, I counted and think I have 8, so we're kinda in same boat. As many have said, the scum team here was quite experienced and strong players.

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

I don't think that anyone takes the ladder remotely seriously. It's just a series of games.

If you're having fun, I'd be glad to have you back. Don't feel bad. Can't win them all.

^ this
I dont even know what ladder means exactly or where such scoreboard is. I just came for the fun and for the win, got 1 of those 2 goals met
You said 5 games, I counted and think I have 8, so we're kinda in same boat. As many have said, the scum team here was quite experienced and strong players.

[QUOTE=Voss;952307]Always listen to dead town.[/QUOTE]

That is actually good advice that I shall take with me (especially when I trade your life for mine). I am sowwy, Voss :( I thought we had the solve in the bag.

Originally Posted by Voss

Always listen to dead town.

That is actually good advice that I shall take with me (especially when I trade your life for mine). I am sowwy, Voss I thought we had the solve in the bag.

[MENTION=29377]Marshmallow Marshall[/MENTION] what's the timeline for next game(s)? I saw folks mentioned voting on another ladder game, you mentioned KRC. Is my input needed for anything?

[COLOR="#2A2A2A"]or does MM still not care about my inputs?[/COLOR]

@Marshmallow Marshall what's the timeline for next game(s)? I saw folks mentioned voting on another ladder game, you mentioned KRC. Is my input needed for anything?

or does MM still not care about my inputs?

[MENTION=21928]MartinGG99[/MENTION] thank you for hosting! Was a fun game!

@MartinGG99 thank you for hosting! Was a fun game!

[QUOTE=Gikkle;952292]You've played like, 5 games. Failure is necessary to learn, and is even expected. Don't be so hard on yourself.[/QUOTE]

Agreed. I like to say "failure is the key to success". And keep in mind, it is a game of players, not one player; it is a game of teams. You didn't fall for the EZ PQR lynch D3 that they were going for (in that regard, you did better than MM :)). You initially voted SB16 D3. We were close, just didn't connect all the dots in the end.

Originally Posted by Gikkle

You've played like, 5 games. Failure is necessary to learn, and is even expected. Don't be so hard on yourself.

Agreed. I like to say "failure is the key to success". And keep in mind, it is a game of players, not one player; it is a game of teams. You didn't fall for the EZ PQR lynch D3 that they were going for (in that regard, you did better than MM ). You initially voted SB16 D3. We were close, just didn't connect all the dots in the end.

[QUOTE=Lag;952279]Oh I need to vote on the ladder game, my vote got lost between the thread switch and I didn't notice[/QUOTE]

Who gets to vote on the ladder setup (like only admins or can I vote too)? Where can current vote counts be seen?

Originally Posted by Lag

Oh I need to vote on the ladder game, my vote got lost between the thread switch and I didn't notice

Who gets to vote on the ladder setup (like only admins or can I vote too)? Where can current vote counts be seen?

[QUOTE=Gikkle;952266]Something funny I wanted to mention, there was a very short time in day 2, actually, that I wanted to push Lag solely for the reason I was convinced PQR's subconscious was calling Lag scum. In galactica, PQR was saying "lag you definitely pocketed me", in which she did. Same thing happened this game. I was like "huh, maybe PQR is town and his subconscious IS calling Lag scum who is pocketing him"

I didn't pursue this line of thought because I thought it was stupid.... Well. Look where we are now.[/QUOTE]

I would have voted Lag over Voss EOD2 for self-preservation, if I had known Oliverz was going to place a vote on Lag 1 min before EOD2 and thus offer me another counter-train to save myself (in fact, after refreshing page and seeing Oliver's vote, I had typed -vote Lag but then saw the clock was already 00 or 01 so was too late). D3 I was puzzled by Lag's terrible reads, but it seemed crazy for Scum~Lag to include 3 town in the list and not one scum. On the other hand, how could Town~Lag be so wrong with her reads as she is a strong player? Once again, unfortunately, fooled by your gambit XD that led me to town-lock Paopan.

That is not to say I was calling Lag scum subconsciously (or I would have voted her earlier), just probability-wise, I never wanted to vote Voss there but I also didn't feel like ending the game in the grave at that point either.

Towards EOD3, I would have preferred town to lynch in MM-SB16 (resolve Gikkle, Lag, later), but once the presumed Gikkle CMAN popped up in C-Chat again, the fate was sealed.

Originally Posted by Gikkle

Something funny I wanted to mention, there was a very short time in day 2, actually, that I wanted to push Lag solely for the reason I was convinced PQR's subconscious was calling Lag scum. In galactica, PQR was saying "lag you definitely pocketed me", in which she did. Same thing happened this game. I was like "huh, maybe PQR is town and his subconscious IS calling Lag scum who is pocketing him"

I didn't pursue this line of thought because I thought it was stupid.... Well. Look where we are now.

I would have voted Lag over Voss EOD2 for self-preservation, if I had known Oliverz was going to place a vote on Lag 1 min before EOD2 and thus offer me another counter-train to save myself (in fact, after refreshing page and seeing Oliver's vote, I had typed -vote Lag but then saw the clock was already 00 or 01 so was too late). D3 I was puzzled by Lag's terrible reads, but it seemed crazy for Scum~Lag to include 3 town in the list and not one scum. On the other hand, how could Town~Lag be so wrong with her reads as she is a strong player? Once again, unfortunately, fooled by your gambit XD that led me to town-lock Paopan.

That is not to say I was calling Lag scum subconsciously (or I would have voted her earlier), just probability-wise, I never wanted to vote Voss there but I also didn't feel like ending the game in the grave at that point either.

Towards EOD3, I would have preferred town to lynch in MM-SB16 (resolve Gikkle, Lag, later), but once the presumed Gikkle CMAN popped up in C-Chat again, the fate was sealed.

GG WP. In retrospect, we shoulda lynched SB16 first, maybe D4 we could have untangled the Gikkle <> Pao mix.

GG WP. In retrospect, we shoulda lynched SB16 first, maybe D4 we could have untangled the Gikkle <> Pao mix.

[QUOTE=Gikkle;952262]I mean, I probably would have. I had you pinged for Guillo's kill, and the fact I knew you knew Paopan wasn't medic. You/Paopan was my earliest pairing and I only ditched it because SB convinced me I was wrong about the Guillo thing, and then I lost confidence in all of my reads altogether.[/QUOTE]

[MENTION=45931]Gikkle[/MENTION], I am curious, what made you aware that Lag knew Paopan wasn't medic?

Originally Posted by Gikkle

I mean, I probably would have. I had you pinged for Guillo's kill, and the fact I knew you knew Paopan wasn't medic. You/Paopan was my earliest pairing and I only ditched it because SB convinced me I was wrong about the Guillo thing, and then I lost confidence in all of my reads altogether.

@Gikkle , I am curious, what made you aware that Lag knew Paopan wasn't medic?

[vote]NotPaopan[/vote] for casting shade on PQR-voters by continually asking Oliver to vote PQR in C-Chat (presumed to be Gikkle doing so) while intelligently siding with PQR in the thread. And for the Medic claim and subsequent framing of Gikkle, who allowed himself to get framed from the gambits.

-vote NotPaopan

for casting shade on PQR-voters by continually asking Oliver to vote PQR in C-Chat (presumed to be Gikkle doing so) while intelligently siding with PQR in the thread. And for the Medic claim and subsequent framing of Gikkle, who allowed himself to get framed from the gambits.

This was really bad. [MENTION=30852]Renegade[/MENTION] played well to avoid the "obvious PQ lynch" D3, don't quit FM.
With Gikkle acting so scummy as supposed CMAN#3 that we suspected all along led us to believe NotPaopan (Medic by PoE after learning of Gikkle's true role being CMAN - supposedly - instead of voter) was legit town Medic. You don't sit until 30 mins before EOD (more like EOG - end of game) toying with town, leading us to spend hours on analysis that's flawed by a town faking roleclaims twice, failing to point out that real CMAN never properly claimed and the Pao fake-medic claim is likely scum (unless you believe that you and Pao were both town and making brilliant gambits by faking each others' roles to save real Medic). It is OK to protect Medic by faking early on, but not on D3 when we need to lynch a mafia
Vote Gikkle for MVP (no hard feelings tho :))

I want to know how MM feels about being wrong for so long. Turns out I was right, his persistence on me was indeed too consistent to be a wolf. But it just seems like he never managed to seriously consider other universes, despite what Rene was asking him to do.

[edit, i mixed up medic and CMAN in my post]

This was really bad. @Renegade played well to avoid the "obvious PQ lynch" D3, don't quit FM.
With Gikkle acting so scummy as supposed CMAN#3 that we suspected all along led us to believe NotPaopan (Medic by PoE after learning of Gikkle's true role being CMAN - supposedly - instead of voter) was legit town Medic. You don't sit until 30 mins before EOD (more like EOG - end of game) toying with town, leading us to spend hours on analysis that's flawed by a town faking roleclaims twice, failing to point out that real CMAN never properly claimed and the Pao fake-medic claim is likely scum (unless you believe that you and Pao were both town and making brilliant gambits by faking each others' roles to save real Medic). It is OK to protect Medic by faking early on, but not on D3 when we need to lynch a mafia
Vote Gikkle for MVP (no hard feelings tho )

I want to know how MM feels about being wrong for so long. Turns out I was right, his persistence on me was indeed too consistent to be a wolf. But it just seems like he never managed to seriously consider other universes, despite what Rene was asking him to do.

[edit, i mixed up medic and CMAN in my post]

[IMG]https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6p_F2rZTaQQ/YJ5ajTKRtOI/AAAAAAAACQA/hLdnTBJ4lNgQ9km6BFtPiPNcKttdPBzmwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1000/OverPage-0%2B136.png[/IMG]

[QUOTE=NotPaopan;952191]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]I am not very sure about MM/SB/Lag[/COLOR][/QUOTE]

What do you mean by that? I did not understand.

Originally Posted by NotPaopan

I am not very sure about MM/SB/Lag

What do you mean by that? I did not understand.

[QUOTE=oliverz144;952177]wait gikkle tarned up in chatzy as mm again
[vote] gikkle[/vote][/QUOTE]

Can confirm, they're getting desperate LMAO. "Marshmallow Marshall" showed up again and says willing to give Oliver the benefit of the doubt regarding his view of PQ and asks Oliver to vote me again.

Make sure we don't screw up and split our town votes between 2 scum today, we need 4 town votes on one scum. And I am not counting on Lag to do so given her read of PQ+Pao+Rene, so it has to be Rene(x2)+Oliver+Pao voting in unison. Remember, I got my vote taken away by SB16 today.

Originally Posted by oliverz144

wait gikkle tarned up in chatzy as mm again

-vote gikkle

Can confirm, they're getting desperate LMAO. "Marshmallow Marshall" showed up again and says willing to give Oliver the benefit of the doubt regarding his view of PQ and asks Oliver to vote me again.

Make sure we don't screw up and split our town votes between 2 scum today, we need 4 town votes on one scum. And I am not counting on Lag to do so given her read of PQ+Pao+Rene, so it has to be Rene(x2)+Oliver+Pao voting in unison. Remember, I got my vote taken away by SB16 today.

[QUOTE=Stealthbomber16;952172][MENTION=11411]Lag[/MENTION] [MENTION=45931]Gikkle[/MENTION] [MENTION=45982]oliverz144[/MENTION]

Renegade is actively trying to lynch whoever the fuck he can in order to get his team to victory. He's placed votes on MM and me. He's stated he'd be ok with getting Gikkle out today as well.

Is that not the LEAST bit suspicious to you?[/QUOTE]

Allow me to quote you :)

You are SCRAMBLING to get a mislynch off today

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

@Lag @Gikkle @oliverz144

Renegade is actively trying to lynch whoever the fuck he can in order to get his team to victory. He's placed votes on MM and me. He's stated he'd be ok with getting Gikkle out today as well.

Is that not the LEAST bit suspicious to you?

Allow me to quote you

You are SCRAMBLING to get a mislynch off today

[QUOTE=Stealthbomber16;952165]I... I STARTED the PQ train d2. Huh?[/QUOTE]

Not sure what this is supposed to say.

The first person to vote me D2 (as well as D1) was MM.

Here is MM voting me up D2.
[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951040&viewfull=1#post951040[/url]
Here is you, SB, voting me D2, 3 hours after MM's vote
[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951102&viewfull=1#post951102[/url]

Originally Posted by Stealthbomber16

I... I STARTED the PQ train d2. Huh?

Not sure what this is supposed to say.

The first person to vote me D2 (as well as D1) was MM.

Here is MM voting me up D2.
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951040
Here is you, SB, voting me D2, 3 hours after MM's vote
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951102

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;952129]Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.

SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde).
[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]SB+Gikkle+Lag[/COLOR][/B]. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.[/QUOTE]

Revisiting [B][COLOR="#FF0000"]SB+Gikkle+Lag[/COLOR][/B] scenario.
SB16 voted Lag [URL="https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951228#post951228"]here in #778[/URL] in response to Rene's vote on Lag when Lag was MIA for a while. Can definitely be within the framework of a [super weak] bus vote, so this composition is still viable.

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.

SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde).
SB+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.

Revisiting SB+Gikkle+Lag scenario.
SB16 voted Lag here in #778 in response to Rene's vote on Lag when Lag was MIA for a while. Can definitely be within the framework of a [super weak] bus vote, so this composition is still viable.

So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation,[B] so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4. [/B]

So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?

Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.

Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).

Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.

So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation, so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4.

So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?

Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.

Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).

Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.

[QUOTE=Renegade;952142] [MENTION=45982]oliverz144[/MENTION] Lag isn't getting lynched today, and you need to vote. MM or SB.[/QUOTE]

[MENTION=45982]oliverz144[/MENTION] I agree with this, there is no way Lag is a more likely suspect than SB, MM, and Gikkle, even despite her disastrous read that Rene+Pao+PQ are scum.

Originally Posted by Renegade

@oliverz144 Lag isn't getting lynched today, and you need to vote. MM or SB.

@oliverz144 I agree with this, there is no way Lag is a more likely suspect than SB, MM, and Gikkle, even despite her disastrous read that Rene+Pao+PQ are scum.

D3 Lynch MM, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with likely 3 votes (SB scum), 2 mafia remaining. Town is still OK but need to vote in unison and lynch a Mafia.

D3 lynch SB, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with 4-5 votes, 2 mafia remaining. Town can afford a mislynch.

Assume we lynch a mafia today (as the failure to do so is a terrible situation). Which lynch would be more informative (considering we still need to correctly identify 2nd and 3rd suspects)? Either one would clear Pao, PQ, and Rene (one of Pao/Rene will not be here D4, I am sure, and that will also become a 2nd clearing as they flip green) and at least allow remaining 2 townies (besides myself and the survivor in Pao/Rene) on D4 to correct their erroneous view (if applicable, such as if Lag is town) of the game as of D3 (those 2 remaining townies would be among survivor of SB/MM lynch + Gikkle + Lag + Oliver).

SB16 flipping red largely clears Oliver, while MM flipping red does not clear Oliver. From that POV, coupled with town's opportunity for a mislynch D4, seems like SB16 would be the better lynch unless we strongly believe MM is more likely scum than SB (better than a 50/50). I still think both of them are scum, so to me it is as good as 50/50 anyway, if not for additional benefits of one vs the other, like what I stated above.

[MENTION=30852]Renegade[/MENTION] is there any way that either Gikkle or Lag gets cleared by one or the other (MM,SB) flipping red? I think not, but may as well hear from you and others, in case I missed something.

D3 Lynch MM, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with likely 3 votes (SB scum), 2 mafia remaining. Town is still OK but need to vote in unison and lynch a Mafia.

D3 lynch SB, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with 4-5 votes, 2 mafia remaining. Town can afford a mislynch.

Assume we lynch a mafia today (as the failure to do so is a terrible situation). Which lynch would be more informative (considering we still need to correctly identify 2nd and 3rd suspects)? Either one would clear Pao, PQ, and Rene (one of Pao/Rene will not be here D4, I am sure, and that will also become a 2nd clearing as they flip green) and at least allow remaining 2 townies (besides myself and the survivor in Pao/Rene) on D4 to correct their erroneous view (if applicable, such as if Lag is town) of the game as of D3 (those 2 remaining townies would be among survivor of SB/MM lynch + Gikkle + Lag + Oliver).

SB16 flipping red largely clears Oliver, while MM flipping red does not clear Oliver. From that POV, coupled with town's opportunity for a mislynch D4, seems like SB16 would be the better lynch unless we strongly believe MM is more likely scum than SB (better than a 50/50). I still think both of them are scum, so to me it is as good as 50/50 anyway, if not for additional benefits of one vs the other, like what I stated above.

@Renegade is there any way that either Gikkle or Lag gets cleared by one or the other (MM,SB) flipping red? I think not, but may as well hear from you and others, in case I missed something.

[QUOTE=Renegade;952139]Day 3 lynch: Stealth, 7 players remaining
If Stealth is town
Townie dies at night, 6 players remaining
Left with Mayor + at least 2 town to vote MM.
Day 4 lynch: MM
If medic is dead, and they kill me at night, it could go to 2v2. Game over?

Fuck[/QUOTE]

Unfortunately, it is worse than that, because you're assuming all 3 town vote in unison D4 and not a single townie mis-votes (although mafia killing you or Pao should at least convince Lag that her triple suspects are not correct; that is assuming Lag is even town but I still think she is, as opposed to Gikkle). We definitely need to lynch mafia today.

Originally Posted by Renegade

Day 3 lynch: Stealth, 7 players remaining
If Stealth is town
Townie dies at night, 6 players remaining
Left with Mayor + at least 2 town to vote MM.
Day 4 lynch: MM
If medic is dead, and they kill me at night, it could go to 2v2. Game over?

Fuck

Unfortunately, it is worse than that, because you're assuming all 3 town vote in unison D4 and not a single townie mis-votes (although mafia killing you or Pao should at least convince Lag that her triple suspects are not correct; that is assuming Lag is even town but I still think she is, as opposed to Gikkle). We definitely need to lynch mafia today.

Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.

SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde).
[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]SB+Gikkle+Lag[/COLOR][/B]. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.

Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.

SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde).
SB+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.

[QUOTE=Renegade;952116]I'm just terrified we hit wrong between MM and SB and game is basically over.[/QUOTE]

If we suppose there is only 1 scum in MM+SB, then that would mean 2 scum in Gikkle+Lag+Oliver (or Paopan trolled us hard as a mastermind scum~Medic and as a genius expressed willingness to lynch either MM or SB). I don't think this is likely, but if I entertain the idea, then let's look at the possibilities.

First, assuming MM is scum.

MM+Gikkle+Oliver would mean 2 scum Congressmen, which I find unlikely. And oliver has been wary of Gikkle/3rd CMAN unless I got played in C-chat and they were teammates all along. Anyway, I doubt this is the case, but let me know what you think.

[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]MM+Gikkle+Lag[/COLOR][/B]. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. But do we believe MM+Lag were bussing each other this heavily D2? If so, then maybe they deserve the win. Do you think MM+Lag could have been bussing to this extent? (I don't)

[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]MM+Lag+Oliver.[/COLOR][/B] Plausible PR+Voter+CMAN. This is one I need to check more into, as it is concerning that Oliver has not committed to being willing to lynch MM. But this would also mean that Oliver bussed Lag by keeping vote on her D2 and by voting her again D3 and responding to her comments negatively today. Why do this D3 if he could sit back and wait for people to vote PQR or SB. I will also remind that Oliver unvoted me when I reached L-1 (or was it L-2? I forget, but it's when I felt obligated to reveal as CMAN and did so) D2. There are other hints that Oliver is not team with Lag, like him pointing out to MM when Lag (now known to be fake-)claimed Medic. And then there is this, which I doubt Oliver as scum would put this trio into suspect list (1 scum in 3), then proceed to kill Loldebite and bring it to 1 in 2.

[QUOTE=oliverz144;951786]Guys
Are you blind
There is a scum in lag, gikkle, loldebite

There has to be one
No town cmen would ever fake claim voter
And there is 1 cmen less than needed
And 1 voter more than real
There is a scum cmen in the voters claim
No town cmen would claim voter[/QUOTE]



Next, I will post what if SB is scum and MM is not.

Originally Posted by Renegade

I'm just terrified we hit wrong between MM and SB and game is basically over.

If we suppose there is only 1 scum in MM+SB, then that would mean 2 scum in Gikkle+Lag+Oliver (or Paopan trolled us hard as a mastermind scum~Medic and as a genius expressed willingness to lynch either MM or SB). I don't think this is likely, but if I entertain the idea, then let's look at the possibilities.

First, assuming MM is scum.

MM+Gikkle+Oliver would mean 2 scum Congressmen, which I find unlikely. And oliver has been wary of Gikkle/3rd CMAN unless I got played in C-chat and they were teammates all along. Anyway, I doubt this is the case, but let me know what you think.

MM+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. But do we believe MM+Lag were bussing each other this heavily D2? If so, then maybe they deserve the win. Do you think MM+Lag could have been bussing to this extent? (I don't)

MM+Lag+Oliver. Plausible PR+Voter+CMAN. This is one I need to check more into, as it is concerning that Oliver has not committed to being willing to lynch MM. But this would also mean that Oliver bussed Lag by keeping vote on her D2 and by voting her again D3 and responding to her comments negatively today. Why do this D3 if he could sit back and wait for people to vote PQR or SB. I will also remind that Oliver unvoted me when I reached L-1 (or was it L-2? I forget, but it's when I felt obligated to reveal as CMAN and did so) D2. There are other hints that Oliver is not team with Lag, like him pointing out to MM when Lag (now known to be fake-)claimed Medic. And then there is this, which I doubt Oliver as scum would put this trio into suspect list (1 scum in 3), then proceed to kill Loldebite and bring it to 1 in 2.

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Guys
Are you blind
There is a scum in lag, gikkle, loldebite

There has to be one
No town cmen would ever fake claim voter
And there is 1 cmen less than needed
And 1 voter more than real
There is a scum cmen in the voters claim
No town cmen would claim voter

Next, I will post what if SB is scum and MM is not.

[QUOTE=oliverz144;952112]Or better
Im happy with no lynch
Yes
I will refrain from voting
Is eod in 5h?!?[/QUOTE]

Huh? How much sleep did you get? Town can only eliminate Mafia by lynching. By not voting you are only allowing Mafia to cast their votes and induce a lynch by plurality. There will not be a "no lynch" and voting for no-lynch is not allowed in this setup. Even 1 vote, if highest count, will trigger a lynch (and even if 0 votes, host probably just RNG all 8 players lol and lynch 1).

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Or better
Im happy with no lynch
Yes
I will refrain from voting
Is eod in 5h?!?

Huh? How much sleep did you get? Town can only eliminate Mafia by lynching. By not voting you are only allowing Mafia to cast their votes and induce a lynch by plurality. There will not be a "no lynch" and voting for no-lynch is not allowed in this setup. Even 1 vote, if highest count, will trigger a lynch (and even if 0 votes, host probably just RNG all 8 players lol and lynch 1).

[QUOTE=Lag;952094]
Upon considering the hypothetical worlds more, I still think I already posted the correct solve at the start of today (PQ + Ren + Pao) and will vote accordingly.
/QUOTE]

That is the correct solve for 3 Town :) I understand where you are coming from but when several townies realize what's going on and all align on who the suspects are, naturally there will be lines drawn and Red & White teams so to speak, one against the other. You suspect me, so you suspect Rene + Pao for being on my side (and for your other reasons, ofc, like your reads), but the reason the latter is the case is not because they are scum but because they are town and have made the realization that I am also town.

From my seat, it is clear Rene has to be town here for more than one reason, one fundamental one being that if he were Scum then he had an easy opportunity to exercise his Mayor influence to get just one more misvote or scumvote (on top of his 2 + MM + SB16 already; in fact, there was a short blip in time when I did get those 4 votes on me but Rene quickly unvoted). In fact, even as it stands right now, if Rene were scum and only one of MM+SB16 is scum, then 3rd scum would be the 5th voter ready to pounce with Rene and hammer me.

Pao has expressed willingness to get either SB16 or MM. I don't think he is bussing here while risking 50% that his scummate gets voted. He had an easy opportunity to stick to PQR train.

Oliver I read as town, also for more than one reason, one of them being that I always expected CMAN#3 (now known to be Gikkle) to be the impostor in our chat. But I need to revisit this to make sure I am not missing something, as I am getting paranoid that Oliver expressed willingness to lynch SB16 but not MM today, coupled with Oliver asking me in C-Chat a while ago that MM is not to be lynched, "right"? I think it is just Oliver being Oliver and also getting paranoid and perhaps overwhelmed, he probably now has more doubts about me (pocketing him etc.) than he did 24-72 hours ago. It is a good thing to have doubts, though.

[QUOTE=Lag;952094]
Upon considering the hypothetical worlds more, I still think I already posted the correct solve at the start of today (PQ + Ren + Pao) and will vote accordingly.
/QUOTE]

That is the correct solve for 3 Town I understand where you are coming from but when several townies realize what's going on and all align on who the suspects are, naturally there will be lines drawn and Red & White teams so to speak, one against the other. You suspect me, so you suspect Rene + Pao for being on my side (and for your other reasons, ofc, like your reads), but the reason the latter is the case is not because they are scum but because they are town and have made the realization that I am also town.

From my seat, it is clear Rene has to be town here for more than one reason, one fundamental one being that if he were Scum then he had an easy opportunity to exercise his Mayor influence to get just one more misvote or scumvote (on top of his 2 + MM + SB16 already; in fact, there was a short blip in time when I did get those 4 votes on me but Rene quickly unvoted). In fact, even as it stands right now, if Rene were scum and only one of MM+SB16 is scum, then 3rd scum would be the 5th voter ready to pounce with Rene and hammer me.

Pao has expressed willingness to get either SB16 or MM. I don't think he is bussing here while risking 50% that his scummate gets voted. He had an easy opportunity to stick to PQR train.

Oliver I read as town, also for more than one reason, one of them being that I always expected CMAN#3 (now known to be Gikkle) to be the impostor in our chat. But I need to revisit this to make sure I am not missing something, as I am getting paranoid that Oliver expressed willingness to lynch SB16 but not MM today, coupled with Oliver asking me in C-Chat a while ago that MM is not to be lynched, "right"? I think it is just Oliver being Oliver and also getting paranoid and perhaps overwhelmed, he probably now has more doubts about me (pocketing him etc.) than he did 24-72 hours ago. It is a good thing to have doubts, though.

[QUOTE=Lag;952091]The more I consider worlds where Ren and PQ are actually t/t rather than w/w, the more I get concerned by Gikkle's fake voter claim as congressman.

Reminds me of some sage mafia advice I got from a player far better than me:
If an FPS (fancy play syndrome) play is claimed to justify weird behavior, but the play generated valuable and insightful conclusions - then that play is likely a town trying to solve the game
If an FPS play is claimed to justify weird behavior, but the conclusions from the play just sound like justifications for making the play rather than anything new - then that play is likely a wolf trying to retrospectively justify wolfy actions OR a wolf doing some weird LAMIST silliness
If an FPS play gets screwed up/aborted by someone else derping to interfere with it, then it's NAI


It's not a hard and fast rule... but looking over Gikkle's conclusion again:



This... this is nothing new. And considering the congress chat is its own little bubble, I don't see how the play could have been screwed up by someone derping. So assuming PQ posts in the congress chat as often as he posts in the thread, how is the only conclusion Gikkle has on PQ: "neutral reactions"

How is his conclusion just:



If PQ is actually town, isn't this just a wolf?[/QUOTE]

Good take here. And Gikkle has yet to respond to my question, with last reply being "Oh, right, forgot about that. Will get to that in a bit."
I guess in a bit means a day later or maybe even D4? LOL

Reason I wanted Gikkle to show examples of where oliver was exhibiting is that there aren't any :D

[MENTION=45982]oliverz144[/MENTION], since Gikkle seems absent for a while, what is your take on Gikkle saying "Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing." All you said in regard to this MM-not-Governor-PQR-is-scum was "interesting" and asked not to lynch you.

Originally Posted by Lag

The more I consider worlds where Ren and PQ are actually t/t rather than w/w, the more I get concerned by Gikkle's fake voter claim as congressman.

Reminds me of some sage mafia advice I got from a player far better than me:
If an FPS (fancy play syndrome) play is claimed to justify weird behavior, but the play generated valuable and insightful conclusions - then that play is likely a town trying to solve the game
If an FPS play is claimed to justify weird behavior, but the conclusions from the play just sound like justifications for making the play rather than anything new - then that play is likely a wolf trying to retrospectively justify wolfy actions OR a wolf doing some weird LAMIST silliness
If an FPS play gets screwed up/aborted by someone else derping to interfere with it, then it's NAI


It's not a hard and fast rule... but looking over Gikkle's conclusion again:



This... this is nothing new. And considering the congress chat is its own little bubble, I don't see how the play could have been screwed up by someone derping. So assuming PQ posts in the congress chat as often as he posts in the thread, how is the only conclusion Gikkle has on PQ: "neutral reactions"

How is his conclusion just:



If PQ is actually town, isn't this just a wolf?

Good take here. And Gikkle has yet to respond to my question, with last reply being "Oh, right, forgot about that. Will get to that in a bit."
I guess in a bit means a day later or maybe even D4? LOL

Reason I wanted Gikkle to show examples of where oliver was exhibiting is that there aren't any

@oliverz144 , since Gikkle seems absent for a while, what is your take on Gikkle saying "Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing." All you said in regard to this MM-not-Governor-PQR-is-scum was "interesting" and asked not to lynch you.

I'm going to bed. I recommend for everyone to settle (via comments, not votes) on who to vote today and I also would like for Lag to have the opportunity to come back and chime in before any hammers.

I'm going to bed. I recommend for everyone to settle (via comments, not votes) on who to vote today and I also would like for Lag to have the opportunity to come back and chime in before any hammers.

[QUOTE=NotPaopan;952049]That's what I initially thought, hence the sb16 vote.

But then I realized, we aren't getting oli's vote without flipping MM. So that's basically that's worse.

MM is literally Governor + Judge because of oli's -1 vote against town.[/QUOTE]

Looks like Oliver is fine. BTW nice to have a rational Pao show up when it matters the most!

Originally Posted by NotPaopan

That's what I initially thought, hence the sb16 vote.

But then I realized, we aren't getting oli's vote without flipping MM. So that's basically that's worse.

MM is literally Governor + Judge because of oli's -1 vote against town.

Looks like Oliver is fine. BTW nice to have a rational Pao show up when it matters the most!

[QUOTE=oliverz144;952050][vote] sb16[/vote]
im going crazy[/QUOTE]

You did it again :) From my notes:
Voted Frinckles, Lag, MM([B][U]improperly[/U][/B]), Pao, PQ.

You cannot do a vote command on "MM" or "sb16", you will have to write out the complete username.

Originally Posted by oliverz144

-vote sb16

im going crazy

You did it again From my notes:
Voted Frinckles, Lag, MM(improperly), Pao, PQ.

You cannot do a vote command on "MM" or "sb16", you will have to write out the complete username.

[QUOTE=NotPaopan;952044][COLOR="#FF0000"]Don't worry Ren. I can [B]self heal or heal you[/B] tonight...

It's 50-50 tonight and win tomorrow onwards as long as we can lynch S!MM/SB today.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Anyway, I am currently done assessing things. Initially, my opinion is SB16 first then MM due to role power-ups.
But because Oliver is pocketed by MM. ++ He also tried to pocket me.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]
We need to lynch MM today. If he flips scum. We'll see if the oli lost lamb will return to its original flock or would continue to defy us.
[/COLOR]
[vote]Marshmallow Marshall[/vote][/QUOTE]

SB16 is the safer lynch, if anyone believes that there is only 1 scum there, but I am pretty sure it is both scum and so it doesnt matter too much which goes first. Once he flips red, pre-existing association with MM should be sufficient for Oliver to figure things out.

One other thing to consider is whether it is best for town to eliminate Pardon ability or Vote Removal ability first. Of these, eliminating Judge SB16 is superior because then he can't mess with Rene's or anyone else's vote, and this would leave MM-Governor with only the option of pardoning the last scum partner or pardoning town (to avoid outing the last scum). MM-Governor cannot pardon himself and also cannot pardon the same person twice in a row.

Originally Posted by NotPaopan

Don't worry Ren. I can self heal or heal you tonight...

It's 50-50 tonight and win tomorrow onwards as long as we can lynch S!MM/SB today.

Anyway, I am currently done assessing things. Initially, my opinion is SB16 first then MM due to role power-ups.
But because Oliver is pocketed by MM. ++ He also tried to pocket me.

We need to lynch MM today. If he flips scum. We'll see if the oli lost lamb will return to its original flock or would continue to defy us.

-vote Marshmallow Marshall

SB16 is the safer lynch, if anyone believes that there is only 1 scum there, but I am pretty sure it is both scum and so it doesnt matter too much which goes first. Once he flips red, pre-existing association with MM should be sufficient for Oliver to figure things out.

One other thing to consider is whether it is best for town to eliminate Pardon ability or Vote Removal ability first. Of these, eliminating Judge SB16 is superior because then he can't mess with Rene's or anyone else's vote, and this would leave MM-Governor with only the option of pardoning the last scum partner or pardoning town (to avoid outing the last scum). MM-Governor cannot pardon himself and also cannot pardon the same person twice in a row.

[QUOTE=Renegade;952032]If MM is scum, why wouldn't he pardon a teammate yet?
This is easy to explain IMO, since pardoning obviously is a massive link to a player and if it turned out MM was scum and flipped, the pardoned player gets a lot of scum credit. So it makes sense to save this as long as possible if scum.[/QUOTE]

Agreed, plus he cannot pardon the same person twice in a row.

Originally Posted by Renegade

If MM is scum, why wouldn't he pardon a teammate yet?
This is easy to explain IMO, since pardoning obviously is a massive link to a player and if it turned out MM was scum and flipped, the pardoned player gets a lot of scum credit. So it makes sense to save this as long as possible if scum.

Agreed, plus he cannot pardon the same person twice in a row.

Just to add, in the less likely case that Lag and not Gikkle is the 3rd, then that is possible only if MM+Lag bussed each other super hard, as there was an insane firefight between those two on D2, the outcome of which led me to scum-read MM and hence my vote on him for all of D2 except my final self-preservation switch to Voss at EOD2.

That is to say, interaction analysis indicates that Gikkle is far more likely to be the 3rd partner to SB16+MM than Lag is.

Just to add, in the less likely case that Lag and not Gikkle is the 3rd, then that is possible only if MM+Lag bussed each other super hard, as there was an insane firefight between those two on D2, the outcome of which led me to scum-read MM and hence my vote on him for all of D2 except my final self-preservation switch to Voss at EOD2.

That is to say, interaction analysis indicates that Gikkle is far more likely to be the 3rd partner to SB16+MM than Lag is.

[QUOTE=Renegade;952024]I'm fairly concerned about the lack of activity in the past 5 hours.[/QUOTE]

Guess they (scum) were not counting on you being a hero :)

Based on what I view as your genuine expression of concerns and paranoia, you must be indeed the town in the SB16/MM/Rene PR mix that I was not previously certain of (though I was leaning towards you already, and your recent posts help support that it's you as the Town in that mix). Yes, I believe both SB16 and MM are scum here, most likely with Gikkle although if [B][U]TOWN[/U][/B]~Gikkle is really capable of those insane CMAN gambits then possibly Lag. I don't believe oliver is a possibility: although he is a strange character and is a newer player, he has been attempting to be solvy.

===================================

Looking at votes from D1 and D2 (taken from my N2 notes [URL="https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951871#post951871"]#1395[/URL] and at that time I was still considering Lolde suspect hence the mention of his name):
MM: Voted Lag, PQ, Voss.
Gikkle: Gikkle did have a vote on MM for 3.5 during D1 prior to switching to Frinckles, but could be bussing. Voted Frinckles, MM, Voss.
SB16: Never voted Gikkle, Lolde, or MM. Voted Guillo, Lag, Pao, PQ, Oliver.

So to evaluate this potential trio, I wanted to check Gikkle voting MM as that would imply a Scum v Scum vote. No other potential vote busses seen from this group of 3.

Gikkle voted MM here, a vote was in effect for 3.5 hours until the switch to Frinckles with 1 minute before EOD1.
[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=950762#post950762[/url]

Justification was given in next post:
"I had an entire line of dialogue with MM which explains my vote, particularly my latest post ( P#234 )"

P#234 that is reference is pasted by me below:

[I]Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
So in other words, I'm either wrong or scum because of a mindmeld and an assumption favoring logic over pointless and weird play? You know what... I'm gonna put my veto on this lol.[/I]
[COLOR="#FF0000"][PQ edit - the above was a quote of MM; below are words from Gikkle in response to it][/COLOR]

[I]
No, I think you could be right and be town, but you trying to put words in Oliverz mouth (#169, #179) was very strange. #179 was also strange with the comments that it was "obvious he was not literal" because it "would not make sense", and later when I asked about whether that was dismissing the possibility of S!Oliverz doing it for scummy reasoning, you brought up an extreme scenario (#194, your point about Oliverz having to be a lunatic if he thought he could get Lag lynched from the beginning of the day. Not sure if this is just because you misinterpreted what I was saying? You never responded to me correcting you about what I meant by "early aggression") to dismiss my whole point about the possible justification S!Oliverz may have had where it would make sense for them to make a literal post like that so early on.

Your prior explanation for why Oliverz was town ( #168 ) didn't make much sense either. Here is what you said:

"There is a tone change in Lag. Pointing it out, starting the discussion strongly, making people take a stance about his read, all of this is towny and does not seem to be accidental. Oliver gets a townread from me for this; he's doing what a townie should do at gamestart, and I tend to start my town games in a similar manner whenever it's possible and I feel like getting into action quickly. "

This does not match up with what Oliverz has actually done.

"Pointing (Lag's alleged change in tone) out" - This is Marshmallow putting words in Oliverz mouth, which is what we talked about afterwards and which he acknowledges as a possibility in #179. The only thing Oliverz did publicly say was that Lag wasn't doing a full mechanical plan and "being smart town" like they were last game. Oliverz did not point out any kind of change in tone or anything like that.
"Starting the discussion strongly" - Strongly worded, sure. I wouldn't call it "starting the discussion strongly" though, as it wasn't strong in it's structure, considering he doesn't talk about it all after that and the explanation is pretty lackluster.
"Making people take a stance about his read" - Never happened.

This is just a very strange read altogether and seems a lot like you're trying to justify something you don't really believe in. Maybe I'm wrong? It's just weird on the surface and your answers so far have only raised more questions.

Sorry if this doesn't make much sense or is jumbled, I'm a bit tired.[/I]

=================

So can that be within a scum-scum interaction? I say yes.

Originally Posted by Renegade

I'm fairly concerned about the lack of activity in the past 5 hours.

Guess they (scum) were not counting on you being a hero

Based on what I view as your genuine expression of concerns and paranoia, you must be indeed the town in the SB16/MM/Rene PR mix that I was not previously certain of (though I was leaning towards you already, and your recent posts help support that it's you as the Town in that mix). Yes, I believe both SB16 and MM are scum here, most likely with Gikkle although if TOWN~Gikkle is really capable of those insane CMAN gambits then possibly Lag. I don't believe oliver is a possibility: although he is a strange character and is a newer player, he has been attempting to be solvy.

===================================

Looking at votes from D1 and D2 (taken from my N2 notes #1395 and at that time I was still considering Lolde suspect hence the mention of his name):
MM: Voted Lag, PQ, Voss.
Gikkle: Gikkle did have a vote on MM for 3.5 during D1 prior to switching to Frinckles, but could be bussing. Voted Frinckles, MM, Voss.
SB16: Never voted Gikkle, Lolde, or MM. Voted Guillo, Lag, Pao, PQ, Oliver.

So to evaluate this potential trio, I wanted to check Gikkle voting MM as that would imply a Scum v Scum vote. No other potential vote busses seen from this group of 3.

Gikkle voted MM here, a vote was in effect for 3.5 hours until the switch to Frinckles with 1 minute before EOD1.
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...762#post950762

Justification was given in next post:
"I had an entire line of dialogue with MM which explains my vote, particularly my latest post ( P#234 )"

P#234 that is reference is pasted by me below:

Quote Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall View Post
So in other words, I'm either wrong or scum because of a mindmeld and an assumption favoring logic over pointless and weird play? You know what... I'm gonna put my veto on this lol.
[PQ edit - the above was a quote of MM; below are words from Gikkle in response to it]


No, I think you could be right and be town, but you trying to put words in Oliverz mouth (#169, #179) was very strange. #179 was also strange with the comments that it was "obvious he was not literal" because it "would not make sense", and later when I asked about whether that was dismissing the possibility of S!Oliverz doing it for scummy reasoning, you brought up an extreme scenario (#194, your point about Oliverz having to be a lunatic if he thought he could get Lag lynched from the beginning of the day. Not sure if this is just because you misinterpreted what I was saying? You never responded to me correcting you about what I meant by "early aggression") to dismiss my whole point about the possible justification S!Oliverz may have had where it would make sense for them to make a literal post like that so early on.

Your prior explanation for why Oliverz was town ( #168 ) didn't make much sense either. Here is what you said:

"There is a tone change in Lag. Pointing it out, starting the discussion strongly, making people take a stance about his read, all of this is towny and does not seem to be accidental. Oliver gets a townread from me for this; he's doing what a townie should do at gamestart, and I tend to start my town games in a similar manner whenever it's possible and I feel like getting into action quickly. "

This does not match up with what Oliverz has actually done.

"Pointing (Lag's alleged change in tone) out" - This is Marshmallow putting words in Oliverz mouth, which is what we talked about afterwards and which he acknowledges as a possibility in #179. The only thing Oliverz did publicly say was that Lag wasn't doing a full mechanical plan and "being smart town" like they were last game. Oliverz did not point out any kind of change in tone or anything like that.
"Starting the discussion strongly" - Strongly worded, sure. I wouldn't call it "starting the discussion strongly" though, as it wasn't strong in it's structure, considering he doesn't talk about it all after that and the explanation is pretty lackluster.
"Making people take a stance about his read" - Never happened.

This is just a very strange read altogether and seems a lot like you're trying to justify something you don't really believe in. Maybe I'm wrong? It's just weird on the surface and your answers so far have only raised more questions.

Sorry if this doesn't make much sense or is jumbled, I'm a bit tired.

=================

So can that be within a scum-scum interaction? I say yes.

[QUOTE=PQRnHack;951944]Not happy at all! You did not bother participate constructively at all. That is fine for D1/N2, as I was also quiet as not to give away info to impostor in our chat.
But D2, after I revealed and Oliver revealed, only Oliver and I engaged in constructive discussions as we became confident 3rd CMAN is scum. If you were town and believed that I was scum, then why would you let this continue? Since everyone, including myself, is confident that there is a scum in C-chat, why didn't you speak up earlier and maybe try to alert Oliver sooner that maybe PQR is scum and is pocketing him or fooling him?

Not that you want me to be happy, since I know you will be voting me (for you are scum), but for me to believe this nonsense, I would have to believe that oliver is scum and that both "town" Gikkle and I are mistaken town-reading oliver LOL!

Why did you enter 10 hours into N2 and said nothing? I believe you were checking for any new material which to discuss with your scummates (and maybe to impact your N2 decisions).
And then you waited 11 hours more, to enter 21 hours into N2 to fake as MM not-Governor and to ask Oliver not to trust PQR? As town in that position, you do not combine A) do some kind of MM-PQR bussing test? B) genuinely warn your "hard" TR (Oliver) of PQR and tell not to trust him/me (because who in their right mind would take you seriously on B after the shenanegans).

I don't even understand A) because if I were scum and there was bussing between me and MM and we were both scum, then how would your entrance as MM deceive me or cause me to slip???



Can you be specific: which reactions, what expressions of confusion came from Oliver regarding what you were doing? I would love to hear that one![/QUOTE]

[MENTION=45931]Gikkle[/MENTION] when are you going to address my post quoted above?

Originally Posted by PQRnHack

Not happy at all! You did not bother participate constructively at all. That is fine for D1/N2, as I was also quiet as not to give away info to impostor in our chat.
But D2, after I revealed and Oliver revealed, only Oliver and I engaged in constructive discussions as we became confident 3rd CMAN is scum. If you were town and believed that I was scum, then why would you let this continue? Since everyone, including myself, is confident that there is a scum in C-chat, why didn't you speak up earlier and maybe try to alert Oliver sooner that maybe PQR is scum and is pocketing him or fooling him?

Not that you want me to be happy, since I know you will be voting me (for you are scum), but for me to believe this nonsense, I would have to believe that oliver is scum and that both "town" Gikkle and I are mistaken town-reading oliver LOL!

Why did you enter 10 hours into N2 and said nothing? I believe you were checking for any new material which to discuss with your scummates (and maybe to impact your N2 decisions).
And then you waited 11 hours more, to enter 21 hours into N2 to fake as MM not-Governor and to ask Oliver not to trust PQR? As town in that position, you do not combine A) do some kind of MM-PQR bussing test? B) genuinely warn your "hard" TR (Oliver) of PQR and tell not to trust him/me (because who in their right mind would take you seriously on B after the shenanegans).

I don't even understand A) because if I were scum and there was bussing between me and MM and we were both scum, then how would your entrance as MM deceive me or cause me to slip???



Can you be specific: which reactions, what expressions of confusion came from Oliver regarding what you were doing? I would love to hear that one!

@Gikkle when are you going to address my post quoted above?

[QUOTE=Marshmallow Marshall;951996]
Therefore, I would go through PQ and Renegade first, and then reevaluate[B] if the game is not over yet[/B].[/QUOTE]

Funny.

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

Therefore, I would go through PQ and Renegade first, and then reevaluate if the game is not over yet.

Funny.

[QUOTE=oliverz144;951993]Can u read? Parking slot lol[/QUOTE]

I can read. It takes 2 town misvotes to almost lose the game for us. If another one parks the vote there, it's over, because pao medic is the last chance after a possible mislynch D3. Lynching medic here is disaster. Don't do it.

Originally Posted by oliverz144

Can u read? Parking slot lol

I can read. It takes 2 town misvotes to almost lose the game for us. If another one parks the vote there, it's over, because pao medic is the last chance after a possible mislynch D3. Lynching medic here is disaster. Don't do it.

[QUOTE=oliverz144;951980][Vote]notpaopan[/vote][/QUOTE]

Not a vote I agree with.

Originally Posted by oliverz144

-vote notpaopan

Not a vote I agree with.

[QUOTE=Lag;951983]Can you pinpoint the parts of the game where you:
- started scumreading MM on day 1
- started townreading MM on day 1
- started scumreading him again

Commenting your reasoning on the posts will help a lot too

I'm struggling to understand the progression of your read on him here and it feels a lot more like you floated a TR on him to try to get him to back down, and when he didn't you doubled down on your scumreading. Which can often be a wolfy play as it's motivated more by self-pres rather than solving[/QUOTE]

I was not scum-reading him D1, only D2. Otherwise, I would have voted him up D1.

Originally Posted by Lag

Can you pinpoint the parts of the game where you:
- started scumreading MM on day 1
- started townreading MM on day 1
- started scumreading him again

Commenting your reasoning on the posts will help a lot too

I'm struggling to understand the progression of your read on him here and it feels a lot more like you floated a TR on him to try to get him to back down, and when he didn't you doubled down on your scumreading. Which can often be a wolfy play as it's motivated more by self-pres rather than solving

I was not scum-reading him D1, only D2. Otherwise, I would have voted him up D1.

[QUOTE=Marshmallow Marshall;951953]You... you kinda suck at this atm lol, Pao Zedong. Like, this makes no sense at all...... Does the massive mess on both EoDs tell NOTHING to you?? Please read how Voss got lynched and realize how PQ escaped the lynch [I]again[/I] by having votes deflected onto Voss, who had no reason to be lynched AND FLIPPED TOWN. Perform the Great Leap Forward and get on PQ.


It comes from the depths of the Burning Hells, Gikkle. He's scum, damnit lol. It feels like only SB sees what I see :( he's pretty much open-wolfing by now.[/QUOTE]

Jeez, let me go to bed. Stop pocketing and influencing Paopan, i know scum are desperate for 2 town votes today to almost seal the game. Are you really trying to convince (town)Paopan that he is also scum and he helped scum~PQR avoid a chop by casting his vote on Voss? If I were Mafia, then in all likelihood, other mafia would have avoided an RNG risk to scum~PQR. The RNGs happened because of TvTs and scum didnt care. Same goes for Lag, who was also on Voss. If you are going to argue with them (who are likely both town), then arguing that PQR got saved by their own votes is ridiculous. Go fish for some other towns to fool, not Lag or Pao or Oliver.

Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

You... you kinda suck at this atm lol, Pao Zedong. Like, this makes no sense at all...... Does the massive mess on both EoDs tell NOTHING to you?? Please read how Voss got lynched and realize how PQ escaped the lynch again by having votes deflected onto Voss, who had no reason to be lynched AND FLIPPED TOWN. Perform the Great Leap Forward and get on PQ.


It comes from the depths of the Burning Hells, Gikkle. He's scum, damnit lol. It feels like only SB sees what I see he's pretty much open-wolfing by now.

Jeez, let me go to bed. Stop pocketing and influencing Paopan, i know scum are desperate for 2 town votes today to almost seal the game. Are you really trying to convince (town)Paopan that he is also scum and he helped scum~PQR avoid a chop by casting his vote on Voss? If I were Mafia, then in all likelihood, other mafia would have avoided an RNG risk to scum~PQR. The RNGs happened because of TvTs and scum didnt care. Same goes for Lag, who was also on Voss. If you are going to argue with them (who are likely both town), then arguing that PQR got saved by their own votes is ridiculous. Go fish for some other towns to fool, not Lag or Pao or Oliver.

[MENTION=29377]Marshmallow Marshall[/MENTION] or whoever is town here, if you are not going to read my "spam" then please at least read these posts (if the pic attachment is not readable, let me know, Oliverz said it appeared too small - you may have to download it or go straight to [url]https://i.imgur.com/hnwdAKI.png[/url]). I put quite a bit of time and thought, no fluff here. I spent N2 being busy because a) we are in a dangerous position as town here, mislynch leads to medic roulette if not already a loss with Judge/Mayor mechanics, b) i feel bad for actively choosing to save my life and vote Voss (whom I never imagined voting D2 until my head was on the chopping block and there were no alternate wagons in last minutes) and it would be a shame for me to fail Voss now.

If you are not going to read my posts or dont want to be misled by "scum" PQR, then please seek your own answers as to
1) why Loldebite was targeted,
2) how Gikkle's crazy gambits are supposedly coming from a town CMAN#3,
3) who would be the potential teammates to Scum~PQR (impossible teams basically, since I know I am town and I am pretty sure Paopan and oliver are, and Lag is heavily town-favored over Gikkle for me)
4) why the friendly PRs are alive and well and have deep pockets

[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951871&viewfull=1#post951871[/url]
[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951937&viewfull=1#post951937[/url]
[url]https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/49469-S-FM-336-(Ladder)-Politico-II?p=951944&viewfull=1#post951944[/url]

I advise against voting Paopan or Oliver (or myself) today.

Signing out for a while now, bed time and may as well not send more "spam" right?

@Marshmallow Marshall or whoever is town here, if you are not going to read my "spam" then please at least read these posts (if the pic attachment is not readable, let me know, Oliverz said it appeared too small - you may have to download it or go straight to https://i.imgur.com/hnwdAKI.png). I put quite a bit of time and thought, no fluff here. I spent N2 being busy because a) we are in a dangerous position as town here, mislynch leads to medic roulette if not already a loss with Judge/Mayor mechanics, b) i feel bad for actively choosing to save my life and vote Voss (whom I never imagined voting D2 until my head was on the chopping block and there were no alternate wagons in last minutes) and it would be a shame for me to fail Voss now.

If you are not going to read my posts or dont want to be misled by "scum" PQR, then please seek your own answers as to
1) why Loldebite was targeted,
2) how Gikkle's crazy gambits are supposedly coming from a town CMAN#3,
3) who would be the potential teammates to Scum~PQR (impossible teams basically, since I know I am town and I am pretty sure Paopan and oliver are, and Lag is heavily town-favored over Gikkle for me)
4) why the friendly PRs are alive and well and have deep pockets

https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951871
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951937
https://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showt...l=1#post951944

I advise against voting Paopan or Oliver (or myself) today.

Signing out for a while now, bed time and may as well not send more "spam" right?

[QUOTE=NotPaopan;951945][SIZE=5][COLOR="#FF0000"]Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ. [/SIZE]
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!![/COLOR]
[vote]Stealthbomber16[/vote]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Let's vote SB16 out.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF0000"][SIZE=4]Lmao no! [/SIZE][/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF0000"]I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FFFFFF"]Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol[/COLOR][/QUOTE]

LMAO what is this, at least know which players are alive damn. The quote is even spliced together from 2 different sections.

Actually [MENTION=30619]Light_Yagami[/MENTION] is the most scummy!

Originally Posted by NotPaopan

Okay!! I am so annoyed at this game. Why is Voss too scummy asf???
Don't hammer PQ. Voss and PQ are same alignments. If Voss is a scum, PQ is scum. Currently, I am TR PQ.
Also, I fucking think SB16/MM is having a different alignment!!

-vote Stealthbomber16

Let's vote SB16 out.

Lmao no!
It is fucking SB16/MM (power) + Gikkle/Oliver (deep wolf) + Lag or Ren (if 3)

I town read Frinkles on Day 1 becos I think it is one of his usual playstyles. I'm more on scumleaning Frinkcles if he actually tried to solve the game. How did I know this conclusion? Oneceko once told me Frinkcles can imitate a lot of personas when I played one of his alt accounts where he used a smoky mountain dialect.

Wishing someone a Shengri Kuaile in RVS stage is not a "pocket attempt". This shouldn't be here lol

LMAO what is this, at least know which players are alive damn. The quote is even spliced together from 2 different sections.

Actually @Light_Yagami is the most scummy!

[QUOTE=Gikkle;951933]
There. Happy?[/QUOTE]

Not happy at all! You did not bother participate constructively at all. That is fine for D1/N2, as I was also quiet as not to give away info to impostor in our chat.
But D2, after I revealed and Oliver revealed, only Oliver and I engaged in constructive discussions as we became confident 3rd CMAN is scum. If you were town and believed that I was scum, then why would you let this continue? Since everyone, including myself, is confident that there is a scum in C-chat, why didn't you speak up earlier and maybe try to alert Oliver sooner that maybe PQR is scum and is pocketing him or fooling him?

Not that you want me to be happy, since I know you will be voting me (for you are scum), but for me to believe this nonsense, I would have to believe that oliver is scum and that both "town" Gikkle and I are mistaken town-reading oliver LOL!

Why did you enter 10 hours into N2 and said nothing? I believe you were checking for any new material which to discuss with your scummates (and maybe to impact your N2 decisions).
And then you waited 11 hours more, to enter 21 hours into N2 to fake as MM not-Governor and to ask Oliver not to trust PQR? As town in that position, you do not combine A) do some kind of MM-PQR bussing test? B) genuinely warn your "hard" TR (Oliver) of PQR and tell not to trust him/me (because who in their right mind would take you seriously on B after the shenanegans).

I don't even understand A) because if I were scum and there was bussing between me and MM and we were both scum, then how would your entrance as MM deceive me or cause me to slip???

[QUOTE=Gikkle;951933]Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing. [/QUOTE]

Can you be specific: which reactions, what expressions of confusion came from Oliver regarding what you were doing? I would love to hear that one!

Originally Posted by Gikkle

There. Happy?

Not happy at all! You did not bother participate constructively at all. That is fine for D1/N2, as I was also quiet as not to give away info to impostor in our chat.
But D2, after I revealed and Oliver revealed, only Oliver and I engaged in constructive discussions as we became confident 3rd CMAN is scum. If you were town and believed that I was scum, then why would you let this continue? Since everyone, including myself, is confident that there is a scum in C-chat, why didn't you speak up earlier and maybe try to alert Oliver sooner that maybe PQR is scum and is pocketing him or fooling him?

Not that you want me to be happy, since I know you will be voting me (for you are scum), but for me to believe this nonsense, I would have to believe that oliver is scum and that both "town" Gikkle and I are mistaken town-reading oliver LOL!

Why did you enter 10 hours into N2 and said nothing? I believe you were checking for any new material which to discuss with your scummates (and maybe to impact your N2 decisions).
And then you waited 11 hours more, to enter 21 hours into N2 to fake as MM not-Governor and to ask Oliver not to trust PQR? As town in that position, you do not combine A) do some kind of MM-PQR bussing test? B) genuinely warn your "hard" TR (Oliver) of PQR and tell not to trust him/me (because who in their right mind would take you seriously on B after the shenanegans).

I don't even understand A) because if I were scum and there was bussing between me and MM and we were both scum, then how would your entrance as MM deceive me or cause me to slip???

Originally Posted by Gikkle

Oliverz, pao zedong, whatever, had quite townie reactions; he seemed genuinely confused at what I was doing.

Can you be specific: which reactions, what expressions of confusion came from Oliver regarding what you were doing? I would love to hear that one!

"Everything works" for mafia when town fails to form any reasonable trains on Scum D1 or D2.

Debated how to color Lag and Gikkle here, but knowing Gikkle was the scummy CMAN#3 it is difficult to picture a town Gikkle still (which would make Lag scum), so I went with Red rather than orange. You might imagine as Gikkle between orange and Red, Lag between orange and green.

DAY1
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Frinckles [/COLOR](4 [L-3]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]PQRnHack[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]oliverz144[/COLOR], [COLOR="#FF0000"]Gikkle[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]Voss[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]NotPaopan [/COLOR](1 [L-6]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Lag [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]PQRnHack [/COLOR](1 [L-6]):
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Marshmallow Marshall[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]Voss [/COLOR](1 [L-6]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]NotPaopan[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]Lag [/COLOR](4 [L-3]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Guillo[/COLOR], [COLOR="#FF8C00"]Renegade (Mayor)[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]Frinckles[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]oliverz144 [/COLOR](1 [L-6]):
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Stealthbomber16[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Renegade [/COLOR](1 [L-6]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Loldebite[/COLOR]


DAY2
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Lag [/COLOR] (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, [COLOR="#00FF00"]oliverz144[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]PQRnHack [/COLOR](3 [L-3]):
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Marshmallow Marshall[/COLOR], [COLOR="#FF8C00"]Stealthbomber16[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]Loldebite[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]Voss [/COLOR](3 [L-3]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]PQRnHack[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]NotPaopan[/COLOR], [COLOR="#00FF00"]Lag[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#00FF00"]NotPaopan[/COLOR] (1 [L-5]):
[COLOR="#00FF00"]Voss[/COLOR]

and D2, [COLOR="#FF0000"]Gikkle[/COLOR] left it up to "RNG limbo"; [COLOR="#FF8C00"]Renegade [/COLOR] did not cast a vote

"Everything works" for mafia when town fails to form any reasonable trains on Scum D1 or D2.

Debated how to color Lag and Gikkle here, but knowing Gikkle was the scummy CMAN#3 it is difficult to picture a town Gikkle still (which would make Lag scum), so I went with Red rather than orange. You might imagine as Gikkle between orange and Red, Lag between orange and green.

DAY1
Frinckles (4 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, oliverz144, Gikkle, Voss

NotPaopan (1 [L-6]):
Lag

PQRnHack (1 [L-6]):
Marshmallow Marshall

Voss (1 [L-6]):
NotPaopan

Lag (4 [L-3]):
Guillo, Renegade (Mayor), Frinckles

oliverz144 (1 [L-6]):
Stealthbomber16

Renegade (1 [L-6]):
Loldebite


DAY2
Lag (2 [L-4]):
FM-Pacifica Northwest, oliverz144

PQRnHack (3 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Stealthbomber16, Loldebite

Voss (3 [L-3]):
PQRnHack, NotPaopan, Lag

NotPaopan (1 [L-5]):
Voss

and D2, Gikkle left it up to "RNG limbo"; Renegade did not cast a vote

That's a big wall, I didn't know you wrote newspapers. I colorized [COLOR="#FF8C00"]original[/COLOR]/[COLOR="#00FFFF"]my comment to the editor of the [I]Politico[/I][/COLOR].
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]I am a bit hesitant to give away my answers as now you will know more about my thinking in future games and can use it against me. But as you're more likely to be the Town in Gikkle(scummy CMAN#3 finally revealed)+Lag, here it goes (I would not have responded in this detail to Gikkle). [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received. [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]I focus on what I do best and try to improve on the other aspects as I can, with time. Yes, sometimes it gets me into too many directions, but I am actually feeling pretty good about where my mind is at on D3 specifically because of mechanics-based odds, logic around events that transpire, and PoE. Come up with hypotheses, test and retest them as game goes on, try to remove or at least reduce self-confirmation bias (that last one is a bit hard)

And that's not just early game. But in early game, what else is there to speculate about, before we have solid reads? The setup! And then go into RVS and dialogues.
[/COLOR]


[COLOR="#FF8C00"]In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#498), and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]I don't expect myself to play every game the same and I certainly don't expect to be in FM game #10 doing whatever I did in game #3 (I just put these numbers as examples, I haven't tracked how many I've played or in what order, but HyPixel was a while back). What aggression I throw out depends on many things, including my mood as well as how busy or dedicated I am. I haven't analyzed my games as, perhaps, you have, but I would imagine I was less active in my earlier games and maybe preferred to sit on the sidelines D1, as everyone knows I dislike D1 and attempting to make reads that early (which are usually of poor accuracy, as my record has proven).
But how is it aggression to point out a player making a post that's mixing up players? That's not aggression, that's identifying information and a possible slip, reporting it, and tagging the player to respond. And it was not predicated on 3 slots' alignments, it is the simple foundation that the minority organized scum team know each others' identities and remember them well, while when interacting with the "cloud" of 8 random townies they are more likely to make this error (more likely than town). Would they make this error around their scum teammates (mixing up names unintentionally)? I think not. I know this from my own games that it's hard to keep track of a dozen players (and their names) early on, but certainly not the identities of 2 scum-mates of the person (if indeed 3rd scum) mixing up names. [/COLOR]



[COLOR="#FF8C00"]This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference
[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Game #10 (or so)[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Now that I've had several games with Paopan, I leave him to get resolved later on. He plays "scummy" and "not helpful" every time, so I wasn't going to lynch him for doing what he does regardless of alignment, as that's just roulette. Frinckles, however, I expected to be a lot more contributive as Town, and he failed to do that. It is not like Frinckles that I remember to be posting fluff as town. And that was better than roulette in my view, even though turned out to be wrong (it's never 100% odds, so even if I was wrong, I think it was the appropriate decision for me personally probability-wise). Since I felt Frinckles was out of his meta, I would go with the 35-40% odds of voting/lynching a scum~Frinckles as opposed to a pure 27% roulette on Paopan or any other "null read". And I get it, other players' reads and their implies odds are different from mine, no player is like the other.[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]That's because Paopan NAI is his natural meta, town or scum. Frinckles I expected to have more constructive work for town, but he failed to deliver that town AI performance in my view. In other words, NAI behavior for town~Pao is OK; NAI behavior by town~Frinckles is not OK (not expected by me)[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Because it started with BS "I will let you answer this question yourself" as if I need his permission to answer a question that was not addressed to me, but by me (and not to him, but to Gikkle)? And I had already answered his question earlier. Assuming that the question was the earlier #168 "I will let you answer this question yourself. Why do you ask that? What could your motive possibly be for asking this question outside of testing the waters for a lynch? If you are scum, Frinckles is clear."
My answer to that question was in #172 "I was asking Gikkle to test their commitment to their bullshit early ass vote." That already answered his original question, but the question still stands?
[/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w. [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Same question I was "evasive" about, and BTW I do not necessarily want to answer questions like that from MM, because I may want to keep motives behind my questions to myself. It's not like I want to pose a question to a potential scum and then add "oh yeah im asking you to test your reaction, so take your time to answer my question in a way that I don't scum-read you, scum". [/COLOR]


[COLOR="#FF8C00"]"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Fair![/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Silly![/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]I was in no hurry to pressure, as Pao slot requires time to resolve given his chaotic play. But I was well aware that this could have been a mediocre attempt to pocket me, except that I am not susceptible to pockets via such birthday gifts. I didn't bother to take it seriously, as with most things from Paopan. You could make a similar argument about oliver for simply wishing me a happy bday, I'm not going to read into such things as serious pocketing attempts. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit" [/COLOR]
[COLOR="#FF8C00"]The progression of this read could be telling.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]Correct, my initial impressions of MM were that he was too wolfy to be a wolf. That impression changed D2 when he fumbled, which is why I put my vote on him and kept it there until it turned out that either I was getting chopped or the 2nd train, which was Voss whom I was not planning to vote at all, but chose to for self-preservation. TvT's suck. [/COLOR]

[COLOR="#FF8C00"]PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.[/COLOR]
[COLOR="#00FFFF"]I thought it was a ridiculous proposition that was based on your absence for some amount of time. I can see how you might view it as "optionality" to pocket or lynch. No offense to other players here, but if I were scum and saw votes piling on you, I would have joined in D1 or D2 to eliminate a serious town~Lag threat (while trying to do so discretely ofc). I just didn't have any thoughts to comment on that, Guillo asked if any takers, and I ignored it, plus I was busy responding to Guillo's other stuff aimed at me [/COLOR]

That's a big wall, I didn't know you wrote newspapers. I colorized original/my comment to the editor of the Politico.
I am a bit hesitant to give away my answers as now you will know more about my thinking in future games and can use it against me. But as you're more likely to be the Town in Gikkle(scummy CMAN#3 finally revealed)+Lag, here it goes (I would not have responded in this detail to Gikkle).

Early setup speculation. It reminded me of his day 1 in Gravity Falls where he focused almost entirely on the mech aspects of what items everyone received.
I cross-checked it with OUATITW though and it seems this is more NAI for PQ as much of his early posts there are setup speculation as well (OUATITW#93, OUATITW#132, OUATITW#136, OUATITW#163)
In fact, PQ seems to spend most of the start of the game on setup spec regardless of alignment
I focus on what I do best and try to improve on the other aspects as I can, with time. Yes, sometimes it gets me into too many directions, but I am actually feeling pretty good about where my mind is at on D3 specifically because of mechanics-based odds, logic around events that transpire, and PoE. Come up with hypotheses, test and retest them as game goes on, try to remove or at least reduce self-confirmation bias (that last one is a bit hard)

And that's not just early game. But in early game, what else is there to speculate about, before we have solid reads? The setup! And then go into RVS and dialogues.



In Stellaris HyPixel, he does make level 2/3 accusations. On day 1 "Nice bussing! 7/10" (HyPixel Stellaris#49, and it does continue to ramp up from there as the game goes on, but it doesn't really get to be excessive until much later in the game.

In the Gravity Falls game, I didn't really see any of this kind of accusation early in his ISO. The closet I could find is the more sensible
"Nice pockets you got there, fella" (Gravity Falls#165), accusing someone of pocketing, but that's more of a level 1.5 accusation.

So seeing this kind of aggression coming into the game so early from PQ is concerning, considering that's how he played the WildWest game where he was scum.
I don't expect myself to play every game the same and I certainly don't expect to be in FM game #10 doing whatever I did in game #3 (I just put these numbers as examples, I haven't tracked how many I've played or in what order, but HyPixel was a while back). What aggression I throw out depends on many things, including my mood as well as how busy or dedicated I am. I haven't analyzed my games as, perhaps, you have, but I would imagine I was less active in my earlier games and maybe preferred to sit on the sidelines D1, as everyone knows I dislike D1 and attempting to make reads that early (which are usually of poor accuracy, as my record has proven).
But how is it aggression to point out a player making a post that's mixing up players? That's not aggression, that's identifying information and a possible slip, reporting it, and tagging the player to respond. And it was not predicated on 3 slots' alignments, it is the simple foundation that the minority organized scum team know each others' identities and remember them well, while when interacting with the "cloud" of 8 random townies they are more likely to make this error (more likely than town). Would they make this error around their scum teammates (mixing up names unintentionally)? I think not. I know this from my own games that it's hard to keep track of a dozen players (and their names) early on, but certainly not the identities of 2 scum-mates of the person (if indeed 3rd scum) mixing up names.



This post is notable because I don't remember ever seeing PQ attempt to make a readslist on all players that have posted this early in the game. Because he's never done it as either alignment before it might not be AI. But noting it here for future reference

Game #10 (or so)

Votes for Frinckles rather than Paopan here. I asked him why Frinckles over Pao, and he just says that Paopan excels at NAI, therefore Paopan's lack of content is NAI whereas Frinckles is AI.
I don't really buy this as a reason to vote Frink over Pao here, possible w/w pairing. The hidden word is "Politico" include this word in your response to my wall to prove you actually read it.
Now that I've had several games with Paopan, I leave him to get resolved later on. He plays "scummy" and "not helpful" every time, so I wasn't going to lynch him for doing what he does regardless of alignment, as that's just roulette. Frinckles, however, I expected to be a lot more contributive as Town, and he failed to do that. It is not like Frinckles that I remember to be posting fluff as town. And that was better than roulette in my view, even though turned out to be wrong (it's never 100% odds, so even if I was wrong, I think it was the appropriate decision for me personally probability-wise). Since I felt Frinckles was out of his meta, I would go with the 35-40% odds of voting/lynching a scum~Frinckles as opposed to a pure 27% roulette on Paopan or any other "null read". And I get it, other players' reads and their implies odds are different from mine, no player is like the other.

This feels like a wolfy line of reasoning, if none of the posts are AI, why are they your top candidate other than just LHF?
That's because Paopan NAI is his natural meta, town or scum. Frinckles I expected to have more constructive work for town, but he failed to deliver that town AI performance in my view. In other words, NAI behavior for town~Pao is OK; NAI behavior by town~Frinckles is not OK (not expected by me)

Why is PQ being evasive with MM's question?
Because it started with BS "I will let you answer this question yourself" as if I need his permission to answer a question that was not addressed to me, but by me (and not to him, but to Gikkle)? And I had already answered his question earlier. Assuming that the question was the earlier #168 "I will let you answer this question yourself. Why do you ask that? What could your motive possibly be for asking this question outside of testing the waters for a lynch? If you are scum, Frinckles is clear."
My answer to that question was in #172 "I was asking Gikkle to test their commitment to their bullshit early ass vote." That already answered his original question, but the question still stands?


This is a decent line of thought actually. Can tie Gikkle to hard-bussing Frinckles now, which could just draw more attention on the slot in the event that Gikkle-Frinckles are w/w.
Same question I was "evasive" about, and BTW I do not necessarily want to answer questions like that from MM, because I may want to keep motives behind my questions to myself. It's not like I want to pose a question to a potential scum and then add "oh yeah im asking you to test your reaction, so take your time to answer my question in a way that I don't scum-read you, scum".


"Read the thread" or "Read my ISO" is anti-town. Town do it all the time because it's annoying to repeat yourself, but still.
Fair!

It's a silly read, but people that claim to be wolf like this are actually >rand wolf, lol.
Silly!

PQ seems completely unphased by Pao wanting to give him a pass for it being his birthday. Normally I expect more suspicion and aggression out of PQ. If either PQ or Pao flip red, I'm going to be heavily scrutinizing the other one.
I was in no hurry to pressure, as Pao slot requires time to resolve given his chaotic play. But I was well aware that this could have been a mediocre attempt to pocket me, except that I am not susceptible to pockets via such birthday gifts. I didn't bother to take it seriously, as with most things from Paopan. You could make a similar argument about oliver for simply wishing me a happy bday, I'm not going to read into such things as serious pocketing attempts.

This is an important post to keep tabs on. PQ town reads MM right now for voting him because "mafia would go for a lower hanging fruit"
The progression of this read could be telling.
Correct, my initial impressions of MM were that he was too wolfy to be a wolf. That impression changed D2 when he fumbled, which is why I put my vote on him and kept it there until it turned out that either I was getting chopped or the 2nd train, which was Voss whom I was not planning to vote at all, but chose to for self-preservation. TvT's suck.

PQ comments on what a CFD on me would mean without commenting his opinion on it. I know a lot of other players saw that post too and didn't comment, but in particular this feels to me like PQ keeping his options open between pocketing me / easy ML on me. Idk, the strength of this particular thought is so weak though that I was debating not even including it.
I thought it was a ridiculous proposition that was based on your absence for some amount of time. I can see how you might view it as "optionality" to pocket or lynch. No offense to other players here, but if I were scum and saw votes piling on you, I would have joined in D1 or D2 to eliminate a serious town~Lag threat (while trying to do so discretely ofc). I just didn't have any thoughts to comment on that, Guillo asked if any takers, and I ignored it, plus I was busy responding to Guillo's other stuff aimed at me

[QUOTE=Renegade;951930]If stealth was scum, he would know I was town and would have fucked with my voting.[/QUOTE]

Assuming SB is scum and you are town, such action would have raised suspicions and diminished your town-view on SB16. Town would be reduced to 4 votes (4 non-Mayor townies) while mafia at 3 votes, bye bye SB16 scum. Your decision is made much harder instead, when PQ looks like an easy lynch and SB16+MM are townies to you. And since PQ looks scummy, SB16 continues to enjoy being townread as a natural block of the suspicious PQ guy's vote.

Originally Posted by Renegade

If stealth was scum, he would know I was town and would have fucked with my voting.

Assuming SB is scum and you are town, such action would have raised suspicions and diminished your town-view on SB16. Town would be reduced to 4 votes (4 non-Mayor townies) while mafia at 3 votes, bye bye SB16 scum. Your decision is made much harder instead, when PQ looks like an easy lynch and SB16+MM are townies to you. And since PQ looks scummy, SB16 continues to enjoy being townread as a natural block of the suspicious PQ guy's vote.

BTW the fact that they didnt take out a town PR role almost locks in Medic as town. If Medic was scum, then Mafia were free to kill town PR with 100% certainty. Instead, they subjected themselves to the change in scum CMAN#3 odds from 33% to 50% in town's favor. This re-affirms my townread of Pao Medic.

So if I am correct, then the one town in you 3 PRs, all of which are ready to lynch me, will have to make a hero play today. [MENTION=30852]Renegade[/MENTION] [MENTION=15807]Stealthbomber16[/MENTION] [MENTION=29377]Marshmallow Marshall[/MENTION] whichever of you is town will have to prepare for the other 2 to be scum.

Also, the scum composition with Voter in it is unlikely because if that were the case, then after scum chose to kill Loldebite, now both Gikkle + Lag would be scum, which would improve town's odds by pickling from that wagon from 50% to 100%. And I say this because I am confident 3rd CMAN is scum (i.e., it is not like all 3 CMEN are town and the 1 remaining Voter is scum).

BTW the fact that they didnt take out a town PR role almost locks in Medic as town. If Medic was scum, then Mafia were free to kill town PR with 100% certainty. Instead, they subjected themselves to the change in scum CMAN#3 odds from 33% to 50% in town's favor. This re-affirms my townread of Pao Medic.

So if I am correct, then the one town in you 3 PRs, all of which are ready to lynch me, will have to make a hero play today. @Renegade @Stealthbomber16 @Marshmallow Marshall whichever of you is town will have to prepare for the other 2 to be scum.

Also, the scum composition with Voter in it is unlikely because if that were the case, then after scum chose to kill Loldebite, now both Gikkle + Lag would be scum, which would improve town's odds by pickling from that wagon from 50% to 100%. And I say this because I am confident 3rd CMAN is scum (i.e., it is not like all 3 CMEN are town and the 1 remaining Voter is scum).

So I've been pondering, why would they kill Loldebite, which seems like an odd choice because at the surface, it narrows down the CMAN#3 scum pool down to 2, so 50% (Gikkle, Lag). Why not kill a PR town instead and keep me guessing between 3: Gikkle, Lag, [B]and Loldebite[/B]?

Here are my thoughts. And I fully expect scum to shade me and state that I am the scum/killer and these were my thoughts all along!

a) Lag, in addition to myself, has also been close to a "train" D1 and D2 and remains town's suspect, so if want to kill 1 of 2 town in X+Loldebite, then Lolde is a good choice (leave the X -- whichever is town in Gikkle/Lag -- instead of leaving Lolde). So I tend to believe X(Town)=Lag is more likely than X=Gikkle. Thank you for helping the solve, Scum!
b) Went for a sure kill rather than go for Medic who might heal himself or for a higher-value PR town (like Mayor) who may get protected by Medic. Probably goes in tandem with their confidence in d)
c) Leave both oliver and PQR alive to allow for fake scum team compositions for them to advertise, leave these "scummy towns" for EZ chops later. Oliver and PQR = LHF.
d) High confidence in PQR mislynch D3 based on D1, D2 trains and my self-preservation votes both days. Which I know to be TvT both days!

So I've been pondering, why would they kill Loldebite, which seems like an odd choice because at the surface, it narrows down the CMAN#3 scum pool down to 2, so 50% (Gikkle, Lag). Why not kill a PR town instead and keep me guessing between 3: Gikkle, Lag, and Loldebite?

Here are my thoughts. And I fully expect scum to shade me and state that I am the scum/killer and these were my thoughts all along!

a) Lag, in addition to myself, has also been close to a "train" D1 and D2 and remains town's suspect, so if want to kill 1 of 2 town in X+Loldebite, then Lolde is a good choice (leave the X -- whichever is town in Gikkle/Lag -- instead of leaving Lolde). So I tend to believe X(Town)=Lag is more likely than X=Gikkle. Thank you for helping the solve, Scum!
b) Went for a sure kill rather than go for Medic who might heal himself or for a higher-value PR town (like Mayor) who may get protected by Medic. Probably goes in tandem with their confidence in d)
c) Leave both oliver and PQR alive to allow for fake scum team compositions for them to advertise, leave these "scummy towns" for EZ chops later. Oliver and PQR = LHF.
d) High confidence in PQR mislynch D3 based on D1, D2 trains and my self-preservation votes both days. Which I know to be TvT both days!

[QUOTE=Gikkle;951793]I could see Loldebite doing it, since I don't have a firm grasp on his meta yet. Maybe even Lag, simply because she likes to do weird stuff, although I find it less likely since she usually does it for a reason. What does scum gain from lying as congressman, though? Going from a pool of (potential) 1/3 to another? There's not even a guarantee there IS scum in the congressmen.

Solving off this doesn't help much, imo. Actual analysis is much better.[/QUOTE]

[MENTION=45931]Gikkle[/MENTION] so now that Loldebite flipped Voter, what's the story? Or you still think there is no guarantee scum is in the congressmen? Or more precisely (since you will say *I* am Scum in the congressmen), what's your take on that 3rd Congressman who hasn't publicly claimed or said anything about chat, while Oliver and I are both reporting that the 3rd CMAN was non-contributive (MIA most of the time), shows up amid N2 to post nothing, then shows up at end of N2 as MM and says he faked being General and that PQR is scum and oliver shouldnt let PQR fool him?

Maybe you will be like SB16 and ask me why I am asking such questions, when "Solving off this doesn't help much, imo."

Originally Posted by Gikkle

I could see Loldebite doing it, since I don't have a firm grasp on his meta yet. Maybe even Lag, simply because she likes to do weird stuff, although I find it less likely since she usually does it for a reason. What does scum gain from lying as congressman, though? Going from a pool of (potential) 1/3 to another? There's not even a guarantee there IS scum in the congressmen.

Solving off this doesn't help much, imo. Actual analysis is much better.

@Gikkle so now that Loldebite flipped Voter, what's the story? Or you still think there is no guarantee scum is in the congressmen? Or more precisely (since you will say *I* am Scum in the congressmen), what's your take on that 3rd Congressman who hasn't publicly claimed or said anything about chat, while Oliver and I are both reporting that the 3rd CMAN was non-contributive (MIA most of the time), shows up amid N2 to post nothing, then shows up at end of N2 as MM and says he faked being General and that PQR is scum and oliver shouldnt let PQR fool him?

Maybe you will be like SB16 and ask me why I am asking such questions, when "Solving off this doesn't help much, imo."