-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Well. I have no idea what's going on anymore.
@oliverz144
@Renegade
@Voss
still waiting on the stuff I asked for
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
We doing mass claim now? Okay. I'm a voter. Plain ol' vanilla.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
I'm the Medic
I thought Paopan was the medic?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
I thought Paopan was the medic?
Well I counterclaim it then, because I'm the medic
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Well I counterclaim it then, because I'm the medic
And you only say this now becauuuussee...?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
So that's what we'd get :
Marshmallow Marshall Gov'nor
NotPaopan State attorney?
Lag Medic
Gikkle Voter
Loldebite Voter
PQRnHack Congressman
oliverz144 Congressman
Voss Congressman?
Renegade Mayor
Stealthbomber16 Judge
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Loldebite
So that's what we'd get :
Marshmallow Marshall Gov'nor
NotPaopan State attorney?
Lag Medic
Gikkle Voter
Loldebite Voter
PQRnHack Congressman
oliverz144 Congressman
Voss Congressman?
Renegade Mayor
Stealthbomber16 Judge
i thought the spaces would make them look nice... I hate html in a way that cannot be conveyed through words alone.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Loldebite
So that's what we'd get :
Marshmallow Marshall Gov'nor
NotPaopan State attorney?
Lag Medic
Gikkle Voter
Loldebite Voter
PQRnHack Congressman
oliverz144 Congressman
Voss Congressman?
Renegade Mayor
Stealthbomber16 Judge
Paopan claimed medic
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
And you only say this now becauuuussee...?
Is this a real question? I feel like you should already know the answer to questions like this
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
Paopan claimed medic
If you insist :
Marshmallow Marshall Gov'nor
NotPaopan Medic/State attorney
Lag Medic/State attorney
Gikkle Voter
Loldebite Voter
PQRnHack Congressman
oliverz144 Congressman
Voss Congressman?
Renegade Mayor
Stealthbomber16 Judge
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Is this a real question? I feel like you should already know the answer to questions like this
I have a few ideas about what you will say, but I want to hear it from you.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
We're all thinking about it so i'll ask the rhetorical question out loud :
Is there any world in which a town State Attorney places a vote on himself ?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
I have a few ideas about what you will say, but I want to hear it from you.
If people want to fakeclaim medic and take bullets for me, they are more than welcome to, I'm not going to CC them. Once I publicly claim though I'm kind of forced to self-heal - means only 1 confirmed town from a night with no kills. But if I can save someone else then that makes two confirmed town rather than just one.
CCing the claim would have been a very dumb thing for me to do, lol
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Loldebite
We're all thinking about it so i'll ask the rhetorical question out loud :
Is there any world in which a town State Attorney places a vote on himself ?
No, I don't believe so. If SA places a vote on themself, it's probably an attempt to make themself look good if people think the SA is scum.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
If people want to fakeclaim medic and take bullets for me, they are more than welcome to, I'm not going to CC them. Once I publicly claim though I'm kind of forced to self-heal - means only 1 confirmed town from a night with no kills. But if I can save someone else then that makes two confirmed town rather than just one.
CCing the claim would have been a very dumb thing for me to do, lol
Well, since your target is not informed, you cannot infact, confirm any town at all. Scum may always skip the NK, with no invest roles there is no pressure on them. They did it just to WIFOM and try to bait a ML last game, so scum would 100% skip a NK to "confirm" their medic.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
If people want to fakeclaim medic and take bullets for me, they are more than welcome to, I'm not going to CC them. Once I publicly claim though I'm kind of forced to self-heal - means only 1 confirmed town from a night with no kills. But if I can save someone else then that makes two confirmed town rather than just one.
CCing the claim would have been a very dumb thing for me to do, lol
Okay. It didn't look like Paopan was trying to take a bullet for anyone, considering how he insisted it was true, but we'll see what he says.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Loldebite
Well, since your target is not informed, you cannot infact, confirm any town at all. Scum may always skip the NK, with no invest roles there is no pressure on them. They did it just to WIFOM and try to bait a ML last game, so scum would 100% skip a NK to "confirm" their medic.
This is true, and should be considered if Lag does "save" anyone.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
oliverz144
why didnt you do anything n1
same goes for mm
and lag: who did u try to safe last night?
Why would I do anything n1?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
@Lag
, could you explain all of your reads to me? I'm still inclined to believe you're scum here because I'm just not really following your thought process this game. Would help a great deal if I knew why exactly you thought the way you did for all of your reads.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
@
Lag
, could you explain all of your reads to me? I'm still inclined to believe you're scum here because I'm just not really following your thought process this game. Would help a great deal if I knew why exactly you thought the way you did for all of your reads.
What slots do you have questions on in particular?
And also, what are your reads. You've done a lot of asking questions but you have yet to put all your thoughts in one place. Just quips here and there.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
What slots do you have questions on in particular?
And also, what are your reads. You've done a lot of asking questions but you have yet to put all your thoughts in one place. Just quips here and there.
IIRC you TR gikkle, and estimate me, PQR & Voss at town-lean, why's that ?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
Well. I have no idea what's going on anymore.
@
oliverz144
@
Renegade
@
Voss
still waiting on the stuff I asked for
Waiting for what?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Loldebite
IIRC you TR gikkle, and estimate me, PQR & Voss at town-lean, why's that ?
Voss and you are PoE town-leans, because null-reads are for cowards.
PQ is being pushed by slots I wolf-read + baseline >rand town from VCA.
Gikkle is town because after playing with a player a number of times, you get a feel for their meta,
Saying this having played Gravity Falls (we were both town), Anime World 2 (I was town, he was wolf), Galactic Community (we were both wolf), and Bisected Souls (we were both town) with him.
Read his play in Deck Mafia 4 (he was town)
And hosted games with him playing as town in Once Upon a Town in the West, and Murder in the Mid-Atlantic
There are few players whom I've seen play/played with more times than Gikkle.
It can be hard to put into words someone's meta exactly, but town Gikkle is paranoid, unafraid, and prefers just living as a null read. Wolf Gikkle tries to emulate town Gikkle but sometimes forgets things or has an agenda.
Gikkle's paranoia about me town-reading him is reminiscent of the Bisected Souls game more than it is reminiscent of Anime World. Like it's well within Gikkle's wolf meta to push someone that town-reads him as a way to divert the wagon off of him, but from what I've seen that occurred when his own slot was under pressure. Whereas in the Galactic Community game his slot was not under pressure and just accepted townreads as wolf. In this game he is not under any pressure and is still paranoid of a town-read on him - which is >rand town for Gikkle
See his paranoia around medic claims as well: >rand town
And this is all built on top of the fact that people that were on the Frinckles wagon are just >rand town from my POV as a baseline + gut read on the slot.
Putting it all together, Gikkle is town, topped only by oliver who is obv town.
Is it possible that Gikkle is wolf? Could be, in which case I'd suspect him making a push onto me as a means to save a teammate. But right now I've seen more just general paranoia from him rather than agenda-y pushes
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Voss
But you know your posts better than I do. If I have to hunt for it, and can't find it, I'm going to vote you.
I'm going to work for 2 more hours then start reading here. Just wanted to let people know so I don't get accused of coasting.
My homework is to remake my reads list and say why I move people (for gikkle) and look into why pqrnhack voted for frinckles (aka find the lie)
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
(3 scum scenario)
PQRN/Voss/Oliverz contains no more than 2 scum, vote count wise and mechanically (congressman). I could see martin putting 2 scum just to make people confused, but not all three, because then the chat would be pointless. They all voted together d1, which would be rather weird for scum to do. I honestly find it unlikely, though, that more than one of them is scum, even if I don't think it's impossible.
MM/Stealth/Renegade contains no more than 2 scum, mechanically. Would give a 3 person scum team too significant of a voting advantage. Only 2 role combinations that are impossible in a 3 person team is SA/Mayor. All other combinations of 2 would probably work somewhat.
Lag/Renegade is VERY unlikely to be S/S, based on the fact Renegade almost got Lag killed yesterday.
Loldebite, I think, is townie. He has seemed fairly genuine all game and it's never seemed like he's had TMI or an agenda or anything. Mostly just an attitude read, really.
I also think Oliverz matches his town meta more than his scum meta. In his scum game, he was very stagnant and uncontroversial - I don't see the same thing here.
Paopan/Lag likely contains one scum, could contain two if they decided to do something spicy last night.
PQRN/MM is unlikely to be S/S.
MM is most likely town after seeing his play this day. His day 1 stunk, but his day 2 has been great so far.
I disagree PQRN is actually that scummy - but I'm not confident enough to come to his defense, because he has had some questionable moments.
I think the following pool contains the 2-3 scum:
Paopan
Lag
PQRN
Voss
Renegade
Stealthbomber
(removed myself, oliverz, loldebite, MM. )
The following teams for three people could be possible, in my mind (I may have missed some):
Paopan, Lag, PQRn
Paopan, Lag, Voss
Paopan, Lag, SB16
Paopan, Renegade, PQRn
Paopan, Renegade, Voss
Paopan, Renegade, SB16
Paopan, Voss, PQRn
Paopan, Voss, SB16
Paopan, PQRN, SB16
Lag, PQRn, Voss
Lag, PQRn, SB16
Lag, Voss, SB16
Renegade, PQRn, Voss
Renegade, PQRn, SB16
Renegade, Voss, SB16
Voss, SB16, PQRn
(2 scum scenario)
For two people, like other people have said, I think the only really valid teams are 2 vote manipulation PRs. One of the mayor/SA + one of the other vote manipulation PRs, or both the Mayor and the SA. SA hasn't claimed, so it's one of Paopan/Lag.
MM, Renegade, SB16, and one of Paopan/Lag. 2 of these, basically. Since I TR MM, it'd have to be Renegade/SB16, Renegade/Paopan, SB16/Paopan, or SB16/Lag.
--
Obviously, this is more for my own personal visualization than yours, since I'm a possibility to you guys, and you may not agree with leaving Loldebite/MM/Oliverz out... But I think these 16 3 person teams, and 4 2 person teams has the correct team.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Voss
I'm going to work for 2 more hours then start reading here. Just wanted to let people know so I don't get accused of coasting.
My homework is to remake my reads list and say why I move people (for gikkle) and look into why pqrnhack voted for frinckles (aka find the lie)
When you get back, tell me if you confirm being 3rd congress man or not. It's between you and Paopan on CMAN vs States Attorney, with lean on you being CMAN based on your "other" congressmen slip.
What do you mean by "find the lie"?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Renegade
Waiting for what?
I tagged you, asking for your top 3 town and scum.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Guessing you meant to say Loldebite, not Frinckles. In that case, I already gave the answer.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
MM is most likely town after seeing his play this day. His day 1 stunk, but his day 2 has been great so far.
Explain this to me please?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Voss and you are PoE town-leans, because null-reads are for cowards.
PQ is being pushed by slots I wolf-read + baseline >rand town from VCA.
Gikkle is town because after playing with a player a number of times, you get a feel for their meta,
Saying this having played Gravity Falls (we were both town), Anime World 2 (I was town, he was wolf), Galactic Community (we were both wolf), and Bisected Souls (we were both town) with him.
Read his play in Deck Mafia 4 (he was town)
And hosted games with him playing as town in Once Upon a Town in the West, and Murder in the Mid-Atlantic
There are few players whom I've seen play/played with more times than Gikkle.
It can be hard to put into words someone's meta exactly, but town Gikkle is paranoid, unafraid, and prefers just living as a null read. Wolf Gikkle tries to emulate town Gikkle but sometimes forgets things or has an agenda.
Gikkle's paranoia about me town-reading him is reminiscent of the Bisected Souls game more than it is reminiscent of Anime World. Like it's well within Gikkle's wolf meta to push someone that town-reads him as a way to divert the wagon off of him, but from what I've seen that occurred when his own slot was under pressure. Whereas in the Galactic Community game his slot was not under pressure and just accepted townreads as wolf. In this game he is not under any pressure and is still paranoid of a town-read on him - which is >rand town for Gikkle
See his paranoia around medic claims as well: >rand town
And this is all built on top of the fact that people that were on the Frinckles wagon are just >rand town from my POV as a baseline + gut read on the slot.
Putting it all together, Gikkle is town, topped only by oliver who is obv town.
Is it possible that Gikkle is wolf? Could be, in which case I'd suspect him making a push onto me as a means to save a teammate. But right now I've seen more just general paranoia from him rather than agenda-y pushes
When have I expressed paranoia about you town reading me? I've expressed suspicion on you, but I don't think it was ever because of your town read on me.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Explain this to me please?
Day 1 stunk because of the oliverz stuff and generally unimpressive play.
Day 2 was great because MM's aggression seems more like town trying to actively find scum rather than wolf hard pushing an agenda - the reason I believe this is the fact he was willing to do a turn around on you. It shows that he's not just tunneling to get a mislynch, rather, he's actually reconsidering his reads (assuming y'all are not BOTH scum, and he never intended on pushing you to the end in the first place, which I guess is a slim possibility, and maybe it was something you guys talked over in scum chat, and that's why MM suddenly got better after the night phase? Hmm).
His thought patterns have made sense, even if I didn't agree every step of the way, for example, it made sense why he was (is) suspecting PQR, and it made sense why he suspected you. His attitude whilst doing so felt genuine a lot of the time as well.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
When have I expressed paranoia about you town reading me? I've expressed suspicion on you, but I don't think it was ever because of your town read on me.
Certainly felt like it was because of the town-read on you, given that's a common thing you've done in the past.
Brought back memories of this post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
Lag, I'm not quite sure what your angle is here. In our mutual scum game, did I not strongly argue in favor for a course of action I genuinely thought was the best for town (I even said so in scum chat)? So where's this "scum gikkle would weakly agree" coming from?
I'm not quite sure, then, how I came to be in your top town. Granted day 1 reads are usually pretty weak for anyone, but I'm having a hard time understanding why something like this would place me in your top town pool. I'm not accusing you of anything... yet... I would just like you to elaborate a little because I think the things you've pointed out I could do as scum too.
The phrasing of
"I'm not accusing you of anything... yet... I would just like you to elaborate a little"
and your recent post
"I'm just not really following your thought process this game"
invoked similar feelings of frustration.
So if it's not that the town-read, then what is it? You've been kind of opaque on that.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Someone mentioned earlier that my VCA for EoD is wrong because PQ was the main day 1 wagon. That felt wrong so I plotted where everyones votes were over the course of day - it updates only when a new vote comes in, so the time scale is distorted, but it gets the point across:
And like, PQ is pretty clearly not ever really at risk here, so where is that idea coming from? Did I record a vote wrong somewhere?
https://i.imgur.com/xSsuXtk.png
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Certainly felt like it was because of the town-read on you, given that's a common thing you've done in the past.
Brought back memories of this post:
The phrasing of
"I'm not accusing you of anything... yet... I would just like you to elaborate a little"
and your recent post
"I'm just not really following your thought process this game"
invoked similar feelings of frustration.
So if it's not that the town-read, then what is it? You've been kind of opaque on that.
Me "not following your thoughts" is a general statement, like with you suspecting MM/SB16, etc
Are you gonna explain all your reads btw? You kind of just brushed me off by saying I haven't explained mine either >.<
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
My PoE in no particular order is:
MM, Pao, Ren, SB16
MM is trending upwards, Pao + Ren trending downwards
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
Me "not following your thoughts" is a general statement, like with you suspecting MM/SB16, etc
Are you gonna explain all your reads btw? You kind of just brushed me off by saying I haven't explained mine either >.<
I asked you if there were anything in particular you wanted me to explain, and you just ignored it.
Like you want me to just go write a paragraph for every single slot this game when you've still not even really articulated why you scum read me?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
I asked you if there were anything in particular you wanted me to explain, and you just ignored it.
Like you want me to just go write a paragraph for every single slot this game when you've still not even really articulated why you scum read me?
I mean, you didn't answer when I DID ask for particulars (#576), and now you're on route to potentially thunderdome Paopan, unless he takes back his claim. So, yes. I do want you to explain all your reads.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Someone mentioned earlier that my VCA for EoD is wrong because PQ was the main day 1 wagon. That felt wrong so I plotted where everyones votes were over the course of day - it updates only when a new vote comes in, so the time scale is distorted, but it gets the point across:
And like, PQ is pretty clearly
not ever really at risk here, so where is that idea coming from? Did I record a vote wrong somewhere?
https://i.imgur.com/xSsuXtk.png
My vote was on Oliver by EoD and this does not reflect that
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stealthbomber16
My vote was on Oliver by EoD and this does not reflect that
Must not be a spreadsheet person, eh? That teal color over in your column shows your vote on oliver (each row is a different timeframe).
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
PQRnHack
Must not be a spreadsheet person, eh? That teal color over in your column shows your vote on oliver (each row is a different timeframe).
I was reading it wrong, apparently. Hold on.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
I mean, you didn't answer when I DID ask for particulars (#576), and now you're on route to potentially thunderdome Paopan, unless he takes back his claim. So, yes. I do want you to explain all your reads.
I was offline for the rest of the day after that, and I answered those questions already elsewhere. This feels nit-picky.
Also this comment "and now you're on route to potentially thunderdome Paopan"
Is this what you really think?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
Someone mentioned earlier that my VCA for EoD is wrong because PQ was the main day 1 wagon. That felt wrong so I plotted where everyones votes were over the course of day - it updates only when a new vote comes in, so the time scale is distorted, but it gets the point across:
And like, PQ is pretty clearly
not ever really at risk here, so where is that idea coming from? Did I record a vote wrong somewhere?
https://i.imgur.com/xSsuXtk.png
Yeah even now that I’m reading this correctly I still disagree with you. When you consider that lynch was 4 votes on day 1, the fact that PQ got 3 means a lot. Day 1 was a very scattered day.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
I honestly think a big reason why some people are scumreading me is because they are so obsessed at nailing a "good" wolf that if not every post is the pinnacle of townliness that must mean I am outplaying the entire thread and pocketing everyone I know. The only reason I have for thinking this is because I have yet to see an argument presented as to why I am wolf that isn't predicated on anything other than a fantasy people have conjured up in their heads about what's going on.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
I was offline for the rest of the day after that, and I answered those questions already elsewhere. This feels nit-picky.
Also this comment "and now you're on route to potentially thunderdome Paopan"
Is this what you really think?
Considering you CC’d him… yeah, that seems pretty likely.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stealthbomber16
Yeah even now that I’m reading this correctly I still disagree with you. When you consider that lynch was 4 votes on day 1, the fact that PQ got 3 means a lot. Day 1 was a very scattered day.
PQ was never a leading wagon, he was a tied wagon at best, but only briefly, this post is also nit-picky
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
PQ was never a leading wagon, he was a tied wagon at best, but only briefly, this post is also nit-picky
How is me arguing against the primary point you’re trying to make here “nit-picky”
I just disagreed with the entire conclusion you were trying to make us draw with that data and you call that nit-picky?
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
I was offline for the rest of the day after that, and I answered those questions already elsewhere. This feels nit-picky.
Also this comment "and now you're on route to potentially thunderdome Paopan"
Is this what you really think?
I didn't see an explicit explanation that really gave me much clarity.
If paopan doesn't pull back his claim? Yes. Whether I think it's likely or not is another thing; the possibility is there, since you both claim medic, and thus I want to know the sides.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stealthbomber16
How is me arguing against the primary point you’re trying to make here “nit-picky”
I just disagreed with the entire conclusion you were trying to make us draw with that data and you call that nit-picky?
The point I'm trying to make is that FRINCKLES was the person that looked to be at risk on day 1. Which you can see as the giant blue bars that span the entire chart. PQ was only in contention as a little blip there.
My point is that wolves didn't have to do anything at EoD and were content to let town implode, which when you look at the graph seems pretty clear to me? Like PQ was only at 3 votes when Guillo was voting him, and then Guillo voted somewhere else. But Guillo flipped town. Town was clearly doing the wolves work for them at EoD there with a bunch of town wagons, so the wolves are going to be >rand the off-wagon bystanders.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Lag
I honestly think a big reason why some people are scumreading me is because they are so obsessed at nailing a "good" wolf that if not every post is the pinnacle of townliness that must mean I am outplaying the entire thread and pocketing everyone I know. The only reason I have for thinking this is because I have yet to see an argument presented as to why I am wolf that isn't predicated on anything other than a fantasy people have conjured up in their heads about what's going on.
I said I was inclined to think you're scum. Not that I do. Which is why I have been questioning you so much, because I don’t have anything solid one way or the other.
-
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Gikkle
I said I was inclined to think you're scum. Not that I do. Which is why I have been questioning you so much, because I don’t have anything solid one way or the other.
It's a copypasta, lmao
Relatable one, which is why I posted it, but ya