S-FM 303: Summer 2020 (Newbie Game)

Oh and also, no one here is able to find me a valid team mate.
And I'm luring everyone's hate atm.
This should alert you. But will it?

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Originally Posted by Auwt

Oh and also, no one here is able to find me a valid team mate.
And I'm luring everyone's hate atm.
This should alert you. But will it?

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I mean from my pov it's either Drizz, Martin, or bake.
I already said bake or drizz are unlikely scum candidates,
thus that leaves Martin.
Simple PoE, association reads are usually bogus anyhow

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Originally Posted by Dallarian

First of all I am very happy that Grakylan started seriously playing. I also expected Helltanis to be replaced. I am happy he have tried FM.
I find it difficult to follow the game. Pure reading takes me too much time and FM turned out to be more involving than I expected. It takes me a few hours to just read posts made over night. I feel overwhelmed by content. Yes, it took me too long to write this post. You can add it to my being suspicious list.

Most of are my thoughts after D1. I haven't thought over the current situation yet, but I am aware I am being Mafia read by majority.

I don't see connection between Auwt and Grakylan. Auwt's claims influenced majority of players, including both of us. There were some fair points pointed at them, but I do not have a newer thought about the situation.

It's my first FM ever as well and I simply have no idea who could be Mafia right now. Your analysis process is different and more powerful than mine. I fall behind with game analysis. Now we have more content from Grakylan so I have what to work with. Also I believe in current situation I can find bakermir townie regardless if Grakylan is Mafia or Town. I try to judge people for their actions.


Auwt isn't oracle. You neither. Assuming his all D1 Citizen claims are true is risky. However now some of them are confirmed. If Mafia assumed it being correct estimate of situation, perhaps Mafia could be people who are easily influenced and going a lot with flow.
I'd say Renegade was more likely to get killed, because of his more "closed" gameplay (unlikely to be healed) and being town read by majority of the people.

About your theory I wouldn't say Auwt is hiding under the radar. Also comparing post count is dumb. Auwt created more content than Helltanis did and activity isn't aligment indicative. For me Auwt's lower post count is positive thing.

This is going pretty far and you have probably convinced me you're not in team with Auwt. I withdraw from Martin/Auwt Mafia team idea. Suggesting to lynch Auwt first puts you in a bad light, though. Mafia!Martin would for sure used his skill to defend himself after Auwt's mislynch and as long as he convinces one Townie not to vote him, he would be safe. If (I am unsure if you claimed that, please point it out to me) Grakylan is more scummier than Auwt, what should we do with him after Auwt mislynch? I can believe you would be building a strong cause against him on D3.


Already asked by Ash, I need to search for answer.
Why would Mafia limit themselfs to guilty voters who have actually helped them, and not consider you? If I was Mafia you would be pretty high on my "to kill" list.


I explained the reason why I voted Auwt. First thing you have done was to join vote train on Auwt, then you read earlier conversation, said sorry and switched to a longer train. I see here significant behaviour difference. Vote on Auwt wasn't what people found scummy, but following trains. Martin made pretty accurate observation about the whole situation during End of Day 1.


He appears and convinced me to be pure town. I deny town tunneling him.

My vote was directed to Auwt and stayed until his answer. I expected him to arrive soon and I wasn't wrong. In terms of different sleep patterns a few hours isn't that long. Also explained by Martin.

I am overwhelmed with content. I woke up 3 hours ago (update, 6 hours) and only thing I do is reading what happened at night.

Power of having a mentor.
Also good moment to thank to Gyrlander. Thanks @Gyrlander .
We can assume bakermir is not GF.

@Grakalyn Yes, I was avoiding a few smaller questions D1. I didn't feel need to be over defensive and answer every single post. Is there something you woud like to ask me?
Except for my role.

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Why did I just get thanked?

I tempt to believe bakermir is a Beguiler who just hid at my place during last night.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gyrlander

Why did I just get thanked?

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Why did you just post in a Live FM game?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dallarian

Already asked by Ash, I need to search for answer.
Why would Mafia limit themselfs to guilty voters who have actually helped them, and not consider you? If I was Mafia you would be pretty high on my "to kill" list.

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Actually I believe I just hit the answer? Beguiler thingy on me? So in case some doubt were on bakermir, he will just look safe.
Also with my willingness to get bakermir, he could have expected me to be some sort of Vigilante idk, then I would have shot myself this way.
I didnt think of it when I explained why Renegade was most likely to be killed this night, but now that I am thinking of it...

Beguiler could be a thing for me.
And that would explain how Grakylan found bakermir not moving, because I'm a Citizen. And an "alive" Citizen.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gyrlander

Why did I just get thanked?

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I believe thats because you called me "headless chicken" in previous game :D
And Dallarian used this expression? Might be it.

Gyrlander you dumb slut, you know better than to post in live games smhing my head

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Originally Posted by deathworlds

Gyrlander you dumb slut, you know better than to post in live games smhing my head

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For legal reasons, I'm obliged to say that that phrase was mostly entirely sarcasm

I'm placing my vote on auwt as soon as I get home, in about an hour

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Originally Posted by deathworlds

Consider my vote on Auwt for now, I will probably stick my vote down around 4ish hours from now, then I'm out for the rest of the day.

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Well it seemed everyone was rather active, at least early in the morning for me. And considering Bakermir, Ash Lael, and Grakylan tend to up at the night (from my PoV), as it's 10 AM for me right now.

I see no problem in hammering right now, rather than at 5PM. It just seems like a better time slot for everyone who might live till D3 and D4.

-vote Auwt

Auwt has been lynched! Stand by for the host's review and day-end post!


Auwt (4 [L-0]): Ash Lael, bakermir, Drizzt, MartinGG99
MartinGG99 (1 [L-3]): deathworlds

Auwt was Citizen. Night starts at 10 bst

Night ends in[COUNTDOWN]01:00:00:00[/COUNTDOWN]

Day Three

Grakylan was murdered. They was a
Detective

They had a last will written in

Spoiler : Last Will :

.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grakylan

Quote:

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Grak the Det. Bakmir did not visit anyone N1. Tracking Martin N2.

I could have tracked Ash instead, but decided he may just be luring mafia to a WIFOM situation.

Here's why I think Martin is Scum.

Martin has already gained some of your trust. And now in a Lylo situation he will push the wrong guy.
OR Martin and his scum partner (most likely DW) may have agreed to sacrifice the partner tomorrow and gain EVEN more trust from you guys to leave you confused as he picks you off one by one while looking like a confirmed town.

I've been telling you the whole game hes a scumbag. And only now when I'm dead that you are willing to listen?

Check posts 1015,1088,1093.
Martin didn't even choose his own calculated "most combo eliminating" lynch (4-combo Helltenis/Drizzt or 3-combo Dallarian/DW), hammering 2-combo Auwt just cause the town felt like bandwagoning him.

And check post 540.
Martin decided not to ISO Zedus cuz "muh bias." I read that as "don't ask questions, lynch Zedus". Look where that got us.

I'm tired of Martin controlling the town. And I feel like tomorrow on Lylo Day, he may seize our desperation for his own ends.
Lynch Martin tomorrow.

On a side note:

Keep in mind that Drizzt cheered on Auwt (even when voting him). Look at post 1139 and 1116. He may have detected the town vibes from him.
That was after Auwt voted someone then unvoted a post later, similar to something I did D1 that Ash criticized on post 72.

I still say pressure Ash for his leads or if hes an investigative or protective if hes a TPR. Just to be sure he isn't lying. We need all hands on deck.

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3 votes to hammer.

Rolelist	Alive Players	Graveyard
Mafia Any Mafia Any Town Any Town Any Town Any Citizen Citizen Citizen Citizen	3. Dallarian @deathworlds 4. @MartinGG99 5. Helltanis @Drizzt 8. @Ash Lael 9. @bakermir	6. @Zedus - Citizen 2. @Renegade - Doctor @Auwt - Citizen @Grakylan - Detective

DAY ENDS IN
[COUNTDOWN]02:00:00:00[/COUNTDOWN]

QuickLinks
LINK TO SETUP
PostCount
Day One
Day Two
Day Three

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Unfortunately, I had hoped grakylan would live. I made this huge post just calculating my suspicions based on what he did :( :

I believe that the scum team may be revealed depending on what happens, and more importantly, if Graklyan lived and who he checks as detective.

The only possible scum combos I see now (from my PoV): Drizzt + Deathworlds (More likely) OR Grakylan + Bakermir (Much Less likely, but still possible if Town Any citizen):
https://i.imgur.com/DNg4fib.jpg

Spoiler : If Grakylan Lives (Multi-Spoiler) :

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Deathworlds or Drizzt & Finds nothing :

That doesn't mean they're innocent. An unfortunate fact of this setup is that with two mafia members, one can choose to not act while the other kills. Since I know I'm town, and the two combo possibilities above, I'm voting Deathworlds + Drizzt.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Deathworlds or Drizzt & Finds something :

Well, it’s obvious. They're Scum. From my PoV, Deathworlds or Drizzt being scum means the other is scum as well.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked MartinGG99 and finds nothing :

Well, I'm proven!.......not really. The unfortunate fact is that scum have an option to not act since they have two members. One can kill, the other can simply not use their power. I'm going to vote for Deathworlds + Drizzt though, since I know I'm town.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked MartinGG99 and finds something :

Well, I don't know what to tell ya. Unless there's a bus driver, it has to be Grakylan + Bakermir, as Grakylan just lied to my face about being detective. Don't forget the person he "checked" night 1 was Bakermir.

Spoiler : Grakylan checked Ash Lael :

Wait, why did he check Ash? Didn't we just establish on D2 that its the citizen claims are suspicious and power claims are mechanically proven? Its Grakylan + Bakermir.

Spoiler : If Grakylan Died :

Well, if Grakylan died, and Ash has nothing to contribute with his power role, then I'm going with the definitive possibility of Drizzt + Deathworlds. Looks like I have to convince you guys to lynch whatever scum mate you guys propose that I would be teamed with, if you all suspect me more than anything else. I'm leaning towards Deathworlds as a preference. However, since they're both scum, I don't care which way we do it.

Don't forget that since Grakylan is dead, that de-facto disproves Grakylan + Bakermir.

I've removed the possibilities that Grakylan is tied to Deathworlds or Drizzt, because I feel its unlikely Grakylan would've lied about Bakermir (a townie) on n1 if he was scum hiding as "detective", along with the unlikely possibility of Town Any citizen (whereas if scum Bakermir+Grakylan, the lie makes sense). In the off chance that one of the above options that incriminates Bakemir+Grakylan occurs, you now know the reason why I think it must be him and Bakermir and not connected at all to Drizzt and Deathworlds.
As you can see, my reads largely depend on what Grakylan says, and if he lives or dies.
Town-locked Ash Lael
Very Town-lean on Grakylan/Bakermir
Very Scum-lean on Drizzt/Deathworlds
Unless, of course, Grakylan does something that is incriminating of the Grakylan/Bakermir duo, in which case my Town-Lean and Scum-Lean reads switch places.
Oh, and don't even try to suggest Ash is scum (if anyone was planning to, like Auwt). If he is, then he has played well and deserves the win.


Obviously, since Grakylan died, I choose to believe Drizzt + Deathworlds as the scum team.

Also, here's all the read progressions (in a spreadsheet format, in individual pics) of everyone in the game, including the dead, as of N2. Each notes the post # for each read. Some reads used slightly ambiguous wording so I tried my best to guess them correctly. Black cells indicate that either that's the person doing the read in the picture (otherwise they would be reading themselves lol), or that they're dead and can't do any more reads (This doesn't include the N2 victim, Grakylan).

Spoiler : Auwt (Dead) :

https://i.imgur.com/CUwdbzv.jpg

Spoiler : Ash Leal :

https://i.imgur.com/KoQaykW.jpg

Spoiler : Bakermir :

https://i.imgur.com/58ubq1H.jpg

Spoiler : Dallarian/deathworlds :

https://i.imgur.com/gDOzW9i.jpg

Spoiler : Grakylan (dead; img not updated) :

https://i.imgur.com/li4fwXi.jpg

Spoiler : Helltanis/Drizzt :

https://i.imgur.com/F28RTh4.jpg

Spoiler : MartinGG99 :

https://i.imgur.com/HnHovLj.jpg

Spoiler : Renegade (Dead) :

https://i.imgur.com/NOQNvkk.jpg

Spoiler : Zedus (Dead) :

https://i.imgur.com/g6dium1.jpg

If you're going to lynch me today guys, I cannot blame you. I had some difficulty believing myself that Drizzt was scum, but for me now that's mechanically proven in my PoV. I had treated Helltanis too lightly in the early game (D1), and I failed in that. However, I do wish to post a side note here just in case you guys end up deciding to lynch me today or on D4:

Honestly, this game has been really fun for me, but its saddening that Zedus tunneled on me like hell and then Auwt somehow felt that not-claiming an exact TPR role was suspicious somehow? I mean, technically there's room for considering possibility in that there was a Town Any citizen, but the chances of it being Ash? Very low.

I get the feeling that both Zedus and Auwt came into this game thinking -Mafia- mod strategies and etc were to be expected to be useful in the forum game. Zedus thought day 1 lynches were supsicious, and they are in the mod. Auwt thought no direct role claim is suspicious, and they usually are in late game for the mod, or when you're on trial in the mod. Unfortunately for them, Forum Mafia is a lot different from the mod, but has some similar principles. But knowing which principles exist only in Forum Mafia or the mod -Mafia- is crucial.

I'm quite thankful I've done my research or studying prior to the game, but unfortunately, I just didn't do enough research on the early game, or at least how to put my thoughts into words. But please know, even if you lynch me today and therefore end the game, I'm quite thankful for the experience. I would like to thank you @Auwt and @Zedus for trying your best, even if it was disagreeable for most. I hope we all can learn from this game and become better versions of ourselves. And I would like to thank @Ash Lael the most, for without his watchful eye I may have never noticed the many problems and mistakes that I made as a townie – namely on day 1.

And finally, I would like to thank everyone one last time for this enjoyable experience, even if its the town's defeat.

And since Ash stated earlier that he wanted those in the lynch block (Me, deathworlds, Drizzt) to vote before the town core (Ash, Grakylan, Bakermir) decided, I'm going to vote now. But it doesn't matter to me whoever we lynch first, so long as its not me.

-vote Drizzt

That's for deceiving me.

Damn. I got juked.