S-FM 350: Chaotic Executioner

Hi, I'm awake again. Cleaning the house but I'm not too busy to not fully catch up. I've read a few of the posts since I last posted and I'll provide my thoughts.

More unpairing action between Deb and Ikarus. Given my current thoughts on Deb (Im not fully caught up yet), I don't think both of them are Mafia.

I think I missed why Gikkle could be Chaotic Executioner. But given what we know, I do think it's good to hunt the chaotic executioner. If I'm gathering everything correctly, then limming the CE is going to block the Mafia Nightkill. It's important we do that before Mafia can kill CE so that they don't get an extra kill. If we lim, then whatever power roles we do have get an extra day to do whatever they need to do. Like, we get an extra day to get Caroler results. And with Mafia not killing on that night, then only power roles who perform their actions wont get a result. At that point, that seems worth it to me. However, I also think we shouldn't just drop everything we're doing to hunt the CE. So if we're not reasonably sure about Gikkle being CE, then maybe we should focus on other things.

And since you asked Deb, the Rule of 3 in spec chat basically goes something like this; someone who calls out exactly three names in a post is suspicious. Maybe I'm bad and not understanding it fully, but it's not that serious of a scumtell. Still though, I think the psychology behind it is that it's the easiest number to come to and the Mafia are just going to go with whatever is easiest for them when making fake reads. I don't really know that it could be considered a perspective slip. Though, if you think that all three of the names Renegade left there are town, then that is pretty interesting. Renegade seemed independently scummy. So I'll revisit that idea when I get to catching up.

Speaking of, when I said day, I meant a real life day.

Anyways, I'll start the page review process again later today (irl). But in any case, unless I've missed something drastic (in which case, tell me) then I suppose my current scumreads still hold up.

Scum Leans (least to most likely

Gikkle
Deb
Frinckles
Buster

Scum Reads

Renegade
Ikarusdk

What do you make wrt to the 11th hour push on Ginnkle? There didn’t look like much chance a Ginnkle lim was highly likely, in fact the converse.

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

I don't know why we are fixated on gikkles potentially being CE, shouldn't we be hunting mafia?

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It’s better to catch CE before Mafia can nk them. I don’t understand why people are thinking Ginnkle id CE?

Where the hell is everyone?

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Originally Posted by Stellaria

Hi, I'm awake again. Cleaning the house but I'm not too busy to not fully catch up. I've read a few of the posts since I last posted and I'll provide my thoughts.

More unpairing action between Deb and Ikarus. Given my current thoughts on Deb (Im not fully caught up yet), I don't think both of them are Mafia.

I think I missed why Gikkle could be Chaotic Executioner. But given what we know, I do think it's good to hunt the chaotic executioner. If I'm gathering everything correctly, then limming the CE is going to block the Mafia Nightkill. It's important we do that before Mafia can kill CE so that they don't get an extra kill. If we lim, then whatever power roles we do have get an extra day to do whatever they need to do. Like, we get an extra day to get Caroler results. And with Mafia not killing on that night, then only power roles who perform their actions wont get a result. At that point, that seems worth it to me. However, I also think we shouldn't just drop everything we're doing to hunt the CE. So if we're not reasonably sure about Gikkle being CE, then maybe we should focus on other things.

And since you asked Deb, the Rule of 3 in spec chat basically goes something like this; someone who calls out exactly three names in a post is suspicious. Maybe I'm bad and not understanding it fully, but it's not that serious of a scumtell. Still though, I think the psychology behind it is that it's the easiest number to come to and the Mafia are just going to go with whatever is easiest for them when making fake reads. I don't really know that it could be considered a perspective slip. Though, if you think that all three of the names Renegade left there are town, then that is pretty interesting. Renegade seemed independently scummy. So I'll revisit that idea when I get to catching up.

Speaking of, when I said day, I meant a real life day.

Anyways, I'll start the page review process again later today (irl). But in any case, unless I've missed something drastic (in which case, tell me) then I suppose my current scumreads still hold up.

Scum Leans (least to most likely

Gikkle
Deb
Frinckles
Buster

Scum Reads

Renegade
Ikarusdk

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I find it very suspicious that your scum reads on me and renegade have exactly no reasoning to back it up.

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

Where the hell is everyone?

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ive got this page open on one monitor but sometimes i get bored and go away for few hours.

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Originally Posted by powerofdeath

Gikkle (2): Frinckles, Loldebite
yoshida (2): BusterCannon, Auwt
Auwt (6): ItalianoVD, Gikkle, Nancy Drew 39, Renegade, MartinGG99, ikarusdk
Loldebite (1): yoshida
Skip Day (2): Stellaria, Clemensthelemon

Auwt was voted to death.

His role is Illusionist(Chosen) and Tailor(Gifted) Jester.




CONGRATULATIONS TO AUWT FOR WINNING AS THE JESTER!

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@Gikklie what is your issue with my vote? I wanted to have a lim and I felt Yoshida was townier than Auwt.

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

I find it very suspicious that your scum reads on me and renegade have exactly no reasoning to back it up.

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I feel like you entirely missed the part where I made posts about me catching up with the thread, and it seems you also easily missed where my reads on you evolved throughout into a scumread

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

Where the hell is everyone?

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Having dinner rn

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

What do you make wrt to the 11th hour push on Ginnkle? There didn’t look like much chance a Ginnkle lim was highly likely, in fact the converse.

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Was this directed at me? Im not sure what wrt means

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Originally Posted by Stellaria

I feel like you entirely missed the part where I made posts about me catching up with the thread, and it seems you also easily missed where my reads on you evolved throughout into a scumread

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nah i've read them.

And I while I thank for your effort and respect your opinions, I decided they are terrible.

But perhaps as you catch up more, you might change or strenghten your view for better reasons.

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

What do you make wrt to the 11th hour push on Ginnkle? There didn’t look like much chance a Ginnkle lim was highly likely, in fact the converse.

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Perhaps they knew Auwt was gonna get flipped anyway.

I think you are reading into it too much but I might be missing something so if you can form an opinion on that later, please do tell.

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Originally Posted by Loldebite

> Fair enough. TBH don't think mafia would vote for sheriff knowing that there are other roles that can sow more chaos. Nancy seems to believe in this and I think this is towny to me because her reasoning definitely is.

Why wouldn't mafia vote for what they think is the best for town ? Mafia should know that the best role for mafia won't be voted. Terrible reason to TR IMO.

> Agreed on Buster's push seems weird but at this point in time I think I had explained why he might be doing it? Either Nancy hasn't read my posts about Buster, or Nancy wants to yeet him maybe. Buster was a SUPER DUPER UBER LHF anyway so can't see if this is AI.

TBH going for the LHF is probably SL. Shielding Renegade is interesting.

> Waiting for consensus without personal reads seems weird. Either not actively solving, has no clue who is scum, or is happy enough to coast.

This is making a decent point.

Overall you've convinced me to put nancy as SL. The NK tilts the balance towards that, too, probably.

It probably will influence my read of you, too, but I'll see how that develops.

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How does Italiano nk make me scum?

I’m currently most sus of Lol and Frinkles.

-vote Loldebites

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

nah i've read them.

And I while I thank for your effort and respect your opinions, I decided they are terrible.

But perhaps as you catch up more, you might change or strenghten your view for better reasons.

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Opinions being terrible != no basis for scumreading

And it's not like youve even provided a reason for my opinions being terrible anyway. So if I catch up with the entire thread and my read on you does not change even if I dissect your posts, then you need to do something big for me to change my read on you because this response was awful.

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

-vote Loldebites

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could you explain more?

Why do you suspect loldebites? Is this OMGUS moment or do you have good reads on debs?

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

could you explain more?

Why do you suspect loldebites? Is this OMGUS moment or do you have good reads on debs?

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That post read to me like he was trying to set the stage for a possible vote on me later but his implying that the nk somehow points to me reads off the chart scummy.

I could be completely wrong here and of course, all of this is dependent on whatever Ginnkle is but both of them voted for Ginnkle both today and d2 and they have yet to explain that vote.

I understand that they are implying that Ginkkle can be CE but haven’t explained why. but if Lol is scum here, I could see Italiano nk as a possible attempt to frame me because that take is ludicrously cringe.

If I were actually scum here, the very last player on this list who I’d want to kill would be the guy who almost certainly never voting me here.

And iirc Italiano never made mention of knowing me. IT was ME who said I had meta on him, so this argument is seriously suggesting that I go out of my way to initially draw attention to the fact I know Italiano and that second, me as scum would do something that boneheaded.

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Originally Posted by Renegade

Possible Buster/Frinckles scum team.

Trying to put together teams in my head.

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Why do you think they’re a possible team?

I've been thinking about whether mafia should or shouldn't push or defend the CE. I don't think the factional block matters that much, in fact, since it doesn't increase the amount of mis-elimnations that mafia need to obtain in order to win the game (or, worded differently, it doesn't give town an extra mis-elimination that they can afford in the future). See the spoiler of me pondering on the hypotheticals of eliminating and not-eliminating CE.

Spoiler : ramifications of CE elimination by town :

No CE elimination hypothetical:

5-town-advantage over mafia w/ 1 neut, total 6 non-mafia vs 3 mafia

would take 2 mis-eliminations (eliminations of town) for mafia to win, assuming one kill per night

Risk that, if CE gets three more PRs dead in some way, we enter sudden death. Which means voting out up to three mafia in a row. Mathematically though (with the deaths we have so far), if there is only one kill per night, it is impossible for sudden death to happen before the 2nd mis-elimination UNLESS we eliminate a mafia (in other words, game would end at the same time that sudden death happens if three mafia are still alive). So, realistically, worst-case scenario we'll have to vote out two remaining mafia together after correctly voting out one of the three. Otherwise, Sudden Death may very well never exist in this game.

CE elimination hypothetical:

First day phase / today, CE is eliminated. Night phase, no mafia factional NK.

Day phase after CE is eliminated, 5-town-advantage over Mafia's three players

Would again take 2 mis-eliminations to lose to mafia. Sudden death cannot happen.

The situations are roughly similar. In both cases of eliminating and not-eliminating CE we'll still have two mis-eliminations (assuming 1 night kill and day kill per day/night cycle) before mafia out-number the rest of the game and just win. As for the benefit of sudden death, the case where CE's win would affect win conditions, we would have to at worst guess 2 mafia in a row -- it wouldn't be possible to trigger sudden death while all three mafia are alive as sudden death would have to trigger upon the 2nd (and game-ending) miselimination.

So, really, the existence of the Sudden Death mechanic doesn't help mafia at all if we have the following assumptions:
1) No mafia will die.
2) There is one kill per day and per night.
....Which might as well mean that sudden death has no impact on mafia's decision to eliminate or not eliminate CE.

The biggest determining factor of whether Mafia eliminate CE is (I suspect) whether or not the PRs were given to mafia more or town more. Only mafia are aware of this, and if more mafia got PRs than town did (or got equal numbers) then mafia may have reason to eliminate CE. After all, eliminating CE doesn't really change the game (it doesn't increase the amount of miseliminations the town can afford before losing the game). So, really, mafia keep CE around if town got most of the PRs, and eliminate CE if mafia got more of the PRs. Because if Mafia got more of the PRs that were handed out, then CE may as well be a town that is likely to vote the mafia out. And since CE has two bullet-proof vests, its much easier to vote them out than to NK them.

I likely could've worded all that better but I didn't want to spend more time on it.

Basically I think mafia's determination to push or not push CE is very dependent on whether mafia got any PRs and, if so, how many. The factional block on the night after doesn't really make a significant difference to the game as we'll still lose to mis-eliminating two towns regardless of whether or not CE dies.

Since we got no clear idea as to how many PRs are mafia or town, its probably not reasonable to speculate people' alignment based on whether they're pushing whoever we think is CE.

And, really, the only reason for town to vote out CE is if we think more PRs are town than mafia PRs.

Because then its for certain that the CE would be voting against us.

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

I've been thinking about whether mafia should or shouldn't push or defend the CE. I don't think the factional block matters that much, in fact, since it doesn't increase the amount of mis-elimnations that mafia need to obtain in order to win the game (or, worded differently, it doesn't give town an extra mis-elimination that they can afford in the future). See the spoiler of me pondering on the hypotheticals of eliminating and not-eliminating CE.

Spoiler : ramifications of CE elimination by town :

No CE elimination hypothetical:

5-town-advantage over mafia w/ 1 neut, total 6 non-mafia vs 3 mafia

would take 2 mis-eliminations (eliminations of town) for mafia to win, assuming one kill per night

Risk that, if CE gets three more PRs dead in some way, we enter sudden death. Which means voting out up to three mafia in a row. Mathematically though (with the deaths we have so far), if there is only one kill per night, it is impossible for sudden death to happen before the 2nd mis-elimination UNLESS we eliminate a mafia (in other words, game would end at the same time that sudden death happens if three mafia are still alive). So, realistically, worst-case scenario we'll have to vote out two remaining mafia together after correctly voting out one of the three. Otherwise, Sudden Death may very well never exist in this game.

CE elimination hypothetical:

First day phase / today, CE is eliminated. Night phase, no mafia factional NK.

Day phase after CE is eliminated, 5-town-advantage over Mafia's three players

Would again take 2 mis-eliminations to lose to mafia. Sudden death cannot happen.

The situations are roughly similar. In both cases of eliminating and not-eliminating CE we'll still have two mis-eliminations (assuming 1 night kill and day kill per day/night cycle) before mafia out-number the rest of the game and just win. As for the benefit of sudden death, the case where CE's win would affect win conditions, we would have to at worst guess 2 mafia in a row -- it wouldn't be possible to trigger sudden death while all three mafia are alive as sudden death would have to trigger upon the 2nd (and game-ending) miselimination.

So, really, the existence of the Sudden Death mechanic doesn't help mafia at all if we have the following assumptions:
1) No mafia will die.
2) There is one kill per day and per night.
....Which might as well mean that sudden death has no impact on mafia's decision to eliminate or not eliminate CE.

The biggest determining factor of whether Mafia eliminate CE is (I suspect) whether or not the PRs were given to mafia more or town more. Only mafia are aware of this, and if more mafia got PRs than town did (or got equal numbers) then mafia may have reason to eliminate CE. After all, eliminating CE doesn't really change the game (it doesn't increase the amount of miseliminations the town can afford before losing the game). So, really, mafia keep CE around if town got most of the PRs, and eliminate CE if mafia got more of the PRs. Because if Mafia got more of the PRs that were handed out, then CE may as well be a town that is likely to vote the mafia out. And since CE has two bullet-proof vests, its much easier to vote them out than to NK them.

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I'm stupid.

It would take three miseliminations, not two.

FORGET EVERYTHING I JUST SAID >:C

Because in which case, if it takes three, then yeah sudden death can happen before game-end and it can happen with three mafia still alive.

Which would be a big help to mafia.

Hence why you should forget everything I said.

-vote BusterCannon

im happy with my vote.

Jeremy ain't here to help.

He might be SUPER DUPER UBER LHF just like his predecessor, but there might be a reason behind it. Happy enough to coast after saying they are catching up but never turns up again.

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

-vote BusterCannon

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I firmly believe buster is town after Auwt flipped jester so can't say I agree with this.

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

I understand that they are implying that Ginkkle can be CE but haven’t explained why. but if Lol is scum here, I could see Italiano nk as a possible attempt to frame me because that take is ludicrously cringe.

If I were actually scum here, the very last player on this list who I’d want to kill would be the guy who almost certainly never voting me here.

And iirc Italiano never made mention of knowing me. IT was ME who said I had meta on him, so this argument is seriously suggesting that I go out of my way to initially draw attention to the fact I know Italiano and that second, me as scum would do something that boneheaded.

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if you are a PR wink at me ;)

Because if gikkles, yoshida and you are all PRs.

We have a case.

But i would never expect you to reveal rn tho.

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

if you are a PR wink at me ;)

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Just in case this gets misinterpreted.

This is a joke and not to be taken seriously.

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

@yoshida

Hope you are still playing.

Your thoughts so far?

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Hey I just noticed an email about the ping. Thank you.

Let me have a look. I will need like a hour to go through every post and check the previous day posts for cross-ref and a bit more to compile some thoughts for you and whoever is interested.

oh I am mega stupid

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

oh I am mega stupid

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I only just now checked my mentions and I realized that I was the target of the caroler
and the information of the carol is actually super useful
this is embarrassing lol.

One mafia is between Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

I only just now checked my mentions and I realized that I was the target of the caroler
and the information of the carol is actually super useful
this is embarrassing lol.

One mafia is between Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria

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I trust Ikarus v much rn so it's between Loldebite and Stellaria

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Originally Posted by yoshida

Hey I just noticed an email about the ping. Thank you.

Let me have a look. I will need like a hour to go through every post and check the previous day posts for cross-ref and a bit more to compile some thoughts for you and whoever is interested.

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I am also cooking a lentil soup for my weekend so it might take longer. I need to check the water and texture levels every once in a while.

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

I trust Ikarus v much rn so it's between Loldebite and Stellaria

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Leaning towards Stellaria right now based on their most recent post which I got wolfy vibes from
Will have to re-evaluate all of those three though

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Originally Posted by ikarusdk

I firmly believe buster is town after Auwt flipped jester so can't say I agree with this.

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nobody has ever really explained that (or I missed it) so

I'd like to know

-vote Stellaria

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

or a possibly a scumteam wanting people to think that? He was strongly tr, so I think you’re being kind’ve reachy with this theory.

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Mafia is not gonna kill against their interests in the vague hopes town thinks something. People always use this line of logic, like "they killed to frame X" or something like that, but rarely is that ever actually the case, and usually the people arguing it are just wolves. They were obviously actively interested in an Italiano kill - what that exactly means I'd usually do an in depth analysis of, but I've been occupied today and will likely be occupied tomorrow (will be online at EoD though), so that probably won't happen today. We'll see.

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

I only just now checked my mentions and I realized that I was the target of the caroler
and the information of the carol is actually super useful
this is embarrassing lol.

One mafia is between Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria

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oh that is spicy if true

GTH (gun-to-head, as in my head) Stellaria

if not then idk who it would be between Ikarus or Loldebite, I feel like both of those have been preety close to their town selves

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Originally Posted by Nancy Drew 39

Why is that? I’m bummed that he got nk’d, so explain?

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I think you are the most actively invested in an Italiano kill. That doesn't mean that you are the only one that would kill them, I just think you benefit the most, because obviously there's history between you two, and you are the only one who really hard TRed Italiano (and a mafia member that hard TRs someone is more likely to think that person is less mis-votable. At the very least, it'd be the hardest for you as an individual to push them.)

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Originally Posted by Frinckles

I don't know why you're trying to give yourself credit here. Disregarding Auwt's alignment (which would let him scumhunt anyway) you're basically saying you had zero scumreads when the Yoshida train fell off.

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No? I scumread Auwt, and I had a general PoE as well.
But that's not really my point - the point was that I wasn't pushing Auwt for the majority of the day, and I was open to several other targets in my PoE near the end of the day. So people saying I'm CE for moving to a suspicious PoE target towards the end of the day just feels quick to point fingers. Odds are, CE is gonna be a bit hard to pin down (at least right now), because we don't know who all the PRs are. We have one data point - Auwt. It could very well be that the CE was focused on pushing some other PR (whomever they may be), and may not have been on Auwt at all. Or they just don't have a prominent voice.

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

oh that is spicy if true

GTH (gun-to-head, as in my head) Stellaria

if not then idk who it would be between Ikarus or Loldebite, I feel like both of those have been preety close to their town selves

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weird that you say that because that's sort of the reason why I had such a problem with Loldebite yesterday. He didn't feel like he did in the KRC.

Alright well then I'm just right.

-vote ikarusdk

At this point, I don't care if I die. But it's got to be Ikarus. I'm just gonna call Ikarus and myself the PoE at this point because I don't think it can be deb.

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

Mafia is not gonna kill against their interests in the vague hopes town thinks something. People always use this line of logic, like "they killed to frame X" or something like that, but rarely is that ever actually the case, and usually the people arguing it are just wolves. They were obviously actively interested in an Italiano kill - what that exactly means I'd usually do an in depth analysis of, but I've been occupied today and will likely be occupied tomorrow (will be online at EoD though), so that probably won't happen today. We'll see.

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Adding on to this, if Loldebite was scum, he'd have to be scum with people that would normally be the kill targets in such a world. Or scum with Nancy. Basically - there can't be BETTER targets than Italiano, because Loldebite was in a volatile enough position that he can't make "status quo" kills. Or Italiano has to increase in value as a target (which would be achieved by having someone who is more afraid of Italiano individually - which would be Nancy or anyone who SRed Italiano. I'll go check for Italiano's SRs rn)

There's a lot of team building I could do (and want to do) with this NK, but I can't really do it rn.

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Originally Posted by Gikkle

I only just now checked my mentions and I realized that I was the target of the caroler
and the information of the carol is actually super useful
this is embarrassing lol.

One mafia is between Loldebite, Ikarus, and Stellaria

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Took you a while to check your messages when you're a highposter this game :P

How do we know that's real?