S-FM 319: ILLUMINΔTI (Ladder) 9P

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Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

I guess I skimmed over a part of the thread and it happened to be the important one. But for the record, although I'm perturbed, it's not enough to make me say "OFF WITH HIS HEAD!!!!". It simply means there are questions to be asked. Once they're answered, we can scream "off with his head" as much as you want if the answers are really scummy, but lynching him right now without even considering his protownness from early D1 is a bit of an overreaction imo. And so is lynching me for not having read that part or for not wanting to overreact, lol (mostly looking at Frinckles right now).

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I feel like you put too much stock in his early day 1 posts, which were just so-and-so run-of-the-mill reactions and standard opening stuff, imo. His most sincere moment was without a doubt imo when he was in setup designer mode talking to martin, and you can see the tonal shift.

Many of his early reads (and later reads, frankly) leaned towards hitting players for play that was incorrect rather than particularly scummy. I feel like my post 611 gives a good sense of what I mean, even if matt actually posted that later.

On another topic:

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Originally Posted by yzb25

to be clear that doesn't overrule the rest of mm's play. His tone is v towny. I don't know the power of his scumplay, but he is still vaguely a townread. My lynch order probably goes like this

9. yzb
8. martin
7. sb
7. mesk
5. frinckles
4. mm
3. auwt
2. renegade
1. matt

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Why do you consider Frinckles as towny?
Why do you want to lynch Renegade?

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Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

I'd say the weird part is the incoherence, not either of the actions. I can understand his point of view on DM, and I share his initial point of view on SB (i.e. that SB is really playing like a townie who just replaced in a hot slot). What doesn't make sense is that he completely wiped the initial SB read to end up voting him because of DM's play, not that he read SB as towny early on; he had kept a healthy level of doubt and wanted Martin to check SB, which was rather coherent and believable imo.
In other words, it's like he forgot he had changed his mind, which makes no sense at all; there's a broken element in his progression. That's what requires answers.

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It's important to remember you were p much always on the fence on DM, giving "benefit of the doubt". SB's post was just what tipped you over the edge. Matt's position was very different. He had made an extensive case on DM by this point and repeatedly rallied / appealed to players to vote him or commit to defending him.

There is a broken element of the progression, but he gave two very long posts which were intended to fill in that progression. It's not like you're reading someone who suddenly dropped a different read/vote while being busy. He has provided the rationalization, it's just insufficient.

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Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

On another topic:

Why do you consider Frinckles as towny?
Why do you want to lynch Renegade?

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Frinckles has a nominal townread solely for the feels I got from him on page 13. It is probably the flakiest of all my townreads rn.

Renegade has been giving me the heebie jeebies all game. I did not share your view that the way he voted DM looked towny. It looked like rationalization rather than stream of consciousness. But I concede trying to glean an alignment from his dearth of posts is kind of like taking a rorschach test.

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Originally Posted by yzb25

I feel like you put too much stock in his early day 1 posts, which were just so-and-so run-of-the-mill reactions and standard opening stuff, imo. His most sincere moment was without a doubt imo when he was in setup designer mode talking to martin, and you can see the tonal shift.

Many of his early reads (and later reads, frankly) leaned towards hitting players for play that was incorrect rather than particularly scummy. I feel like my post 611 gives a good sense of what I mean, even if matt actually posted that later.

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That was definetly the case about his DM read, and it's why we disagreed on that point. I'd say that goes more into the "common mistakes in Mafia" column than into the "scumpainting" one, though.

You may be right about early D1, but he still actually helped things to move forward. If he hadn't done that, we would still be swimming in shitposts and movie references right now. Plus, I'm not giving him many townpoints for it. I'm just not giving him many scumpoints for his SB stuff yet, because he has yet to explain himself.

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Originally Posted by yzb25

It's important to remember you were p much always on the fence on DM, giving "benefit of the doubt". SB's post was just what tipped you over the edge. Matt's position was very different. He had made an extensive case on DM by this point and repeatedly rallied / appealed to players to vote him or commit to defending him.

There is a broken element of the progression, but he gave two very long posts which were intended to fill in that progression. It's not like you're reading someone who suddenly dropped a different read/vote while being busy. He has provided the rationalization, it's just insufficient.

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Hmm. I guess there's indeed not much more to add to his post; not sure what he could answer that would make sense, when I think about it.

Ugh, it just feels terrible to D1 lynch Mattzed after his early play without waiting for him to explain himself lol. Maybe I'm just being paranoid of lynching townies when there's a clear scumtell.

I still want to wait as much as possible, just in case. But if he doesn't come back and we don't get a Frinckles or Mesk lynch, I'll get on board for a Mattzed lynch, I guess.

On my phone. At this point, I can get behind a Mesk or Frinckles yeet if y’all REALLY think SB is non-Illuminati town.

For the pings on “why did you switch from giving SB a pass to voting for him?” Two reasons: 1. I was hoping we’d have enough pressure to trial one of Mesk/Frinckles/Auwt/yzb, but that didnt happen. 2. I realized the math ONLY supports a no-yeet if I think there’s an Illuminati but the top suspects aren’t in it.

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Originally Posted by yzb25

Frinckles has a nominal townread solely for the feels I got from him on page 13. It is probably the flakiest of all my townreads rn.

Renegade has been giving me the heebie jeebies all game. I did not share your view that the way he voted DM looked towny. It looked like rationalization rather than stream of consciousness. But I concede trying to glean an alignment from his dearth of posts is kind of like taking a rorschach test.

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Okay, well I didn't get that lol. The only thing that could maybe give me pause about Frinckles is... a potential derpclear about him asking about people knowing if they're illuminati or not. That's how far the towny elements go for him in my mind.

I won't say Renegade is a hard townread of mine, but I'd at least keep him around today. There's not enough info on him to have a hard read on him, and there's definetly not enough scumminess to want to lynch him imo.

MM, quick summary on why Frinckles over Mesk?

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Originally Posted by MattZed

On my phone. At this point, I can get behind a Mesk or Frinckles yeet if y’all REALLY think SB is non-Illuminati town.

For the pings on “why did you switch from giving SB a pass to voting for him?” Two reasons: 1. I was hoping we’d have enough pressure to trial one of Mesk/Frinckles/Auwt/yzb, but that didnt happen. 2. I realized the math ONLY supports a no-yeet if I think there’s an Illuminati but the top suspects aren’t in it.

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@Marshmallow Marshall

there you have it.

ask and you shall receive.

Mesk and Frinckles both full of OMGUS. Their suspects are literally just the people who have voted them. They both townread DM. (But so did Martin so *maybe* theres something Im missing)

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Originally Posted by MattZed

Mesk and Frinckles both full of OMGUS. Their suspects are literally just the people who have voted them. They both townread DM. (But so did Martin so *maybe* theres something Im missing)

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Many people have voted me. You moved your vote off of me several times. I haven't budged, but ok

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Originally Posted by MattZed

On my phone. At this point, I can get behind a Mesk or Frinckles yeet if y’all REALLY think SB is non-Illuminati town.

For the pings on “why did you switch from giving SB a pass to voting for him?” Two reasons: 1. I was hoping we’d have enough pressure to trial one of Mesk/Frinckles/Auwt/yzb, but that didnt happen. 2. I realized the math ONLY supports a no-yeet if I think there’s an Illuminati but the top suspects aren’t in it.

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Wait a minute. Are you shopping for lynches again? ("Again" as in "like in Eternia")

If there are Illuminati, the kill is pretty unstable, since the illuminati mafioso needs to be subtle in his control of the kill to avoid getting killed by the other mafioso. How did you calculate the odds in these conditions?

@Frinckles @MartinGG99 @Auwt

15 mins to go. If you're still around, now is the time to commit.

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Originally Posted by yzb25

@Frinckles @MartinGG99 @Auwt

15 mins to go. If you're still around, now is the time to commit.

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Yeah I was whoopin some ass im here now

I mean to put it frankly four of you motherfuckers are evil in most setups so I think we got some options.

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Originally Posted by yzb25

@Frinckles @MartinGG99 @Auwt

15 mins to go. If you're still around, now is the time to commit.

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I'm just catching up.

I don’t know how else to say I legit felt guilty about the possibility of yeeting SB right after he replaced in. I was hoping someone else would end up being scummier, but that didnt happen

Frinckles (2 [L-3]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Auwt
MattZed (2 [L-3]):
Mesk514, yzb25
Stealthbomber16 (1 [L-4]):
MattZed
Renegade (1 [L-4]):
Stealthbomber16
Mesk514 (1 [L-4]):
Renegade


VC didn't really move at all, did it?

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Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall

If your argument to want to lynch me is "I townread him so he must be scum" and that you're actively pushing my lynch over any other lynches, you're just scum lol. I don't even do that with Blinkskater, come on. You can't honestly say


if you have a townlean on me as town, that's utterly incoherent and ungenuine.

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So ill just light my MM meta on fire?

-vote Frinckles

MM is leading the train, and I REALLY doubt MM is scum, especially Illumimati.

Frinckles seemed before like he thought I was cit and wanted to make me a more attractive night kill. Idk why he’s abandoned that. Was he actually TPR hunting instead of making NK WIFOM?

I don't think Frinckles is a good d1 elimination, even if I suspect him slightly.

I feel like there's potential to him and his slot that could help in solving the game if we let him live longer, at the very least.

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Originally Posted by MattZed

-vote Frinckles

MM is leading the train, and I REALLY doubt MM is scum, especially Illumimati.

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*sheep sounds*

-vote mattzed

you've been off balance all game and im a power role. I'll take my chances here because mafia could be killing itself anyway.

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Originally Posted by MattZed

Frinckles seemed before like he thought I was cit and wanted to make me a more attractive night kill. Idk why he’s abandoned that. Was he actually TPR hunting instead of making NK WIFOM?

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You should really put your arguments before your votes.

Plus the doctor already hinted to me. Let it ride SmugPepe

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

I don't think Frinckles is a good d1 elimination, even if I suspect him slightly.

I feel like there's potential to him and his slot that could help in solving the game if we let him live longer, at the very least.

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Originally Posted by Frinckles

im a power role

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Well this is one heck of a coincidence lol

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Well this is one heck of a coincidence lol

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PogChamp

Come on scum. Figure it out.

Whats the angle

One more minute. Get it together.

@Mike

Is gonna hammer sleep with his overpowers 5 vote ability

Ah scum is lazy oh well

Gl if im not saved

Night 1

No One Has Died today! The town decided to sleep this night.

Frinckles (3 [L-2]):
Marshmallow Marshall, Auwt, MattZed
MattZed (3 [L-2]):
Mesk514, yzb25, Frinckles
Renegade (1 [L-4]):
Stealthbomber16
Mesk514 (1 [L-4]):
Renegade

Living Players	Graveyard
@Stealthbomber16 @MattZed @Frinckles @yzb25 @MartinGG99 @Auwt @Marshmallow Marshall @Renegade @Mesk514

Night 1 will end:
[COUNTDOWN]00:22:54:59[/COUNTDOWN]

Please send all Night actions and Last Wills to me in Discord 1 hour before Night ends. Last Hour of night Night chat or chats will be closed. All night actions and LW need to be in by that time.

Day 2

In the Night Freckles has been found dead.

Living Players	Graveyard
@Stealthbomber16 @MattZed @yzb25 @MartinGG99 @Auwt @Marshmallow Marshall @Renegade @Mesk514	Frinckles

Day 2 will end:
[COUNTDOWN]02:13:59:59[/COUNTDOWN]
You all may post
5 votes to hammer.

imagine being useless for an entire day because your playstyle revolves around avoiding the nightkill then getting nightkilled anyway

oh how the great have fallen ^^

If that was all level 6 citizen WIFOM I'll nominate u for mvp in the postgame frinckles

Welp either Mike is terrible at coinflipping

Or Auwt is suspected to be Illuminati

What the fuck kind of death is this lmfao

This was my lw.


https://imgur.com/a/2TtvlIH

Here is my network analysis of d1 activity. There are 4 charts.

I reread the whole day and every time I saw a positive/neutral/negative interaction or mentioning of one player to another, or a vote, I counted it. Sometimes an interaction is a single post, sometimes single posts count for multiple interactions.

For example, post X could have a ren to mm, frinckles, martingg99 interaction generated from it. These interactions are from my perspective and how I interpreted them. I removed fluff, satire, and non-game related interactions.

The darker the color of the arrow, the more interactions that took place. The arrow starts at a source node, and points to target nodes. So in an example above, there would be three arrows starting at ren and pointing to frinckles, mm, and martingg99.

I would like to spend some time with you all and see what we can draw from these networks.

The first chart we will introduce is the "positive interaction/ agreement chart". These occur when it appears to me that two players are in agreement or are otherwise having a positive game related interaction with each other.

https://i.imgur.com/k2OYrKu.png

Here you can see, MM and MZ had the strongest positive interactions. What you end up finding though is a few players on the outside. For example, Mesk, Martin, and Frinckles.

The next chart introduced in the neutral interaction chart. These often occur when one player asks another player a question, or responds with an answer.

https://i.imgur.com/vhmSRIe.png

Here you can see the most acive players were MM, DM, MZ, and who they were interacting with.

This chart is the fun chart, all of the negative interactions, scumreads, scumleans, whatever you want.

https://i.imgur.com/pMfm2o8.png

Clearly, there is tension between Mesk and MM, and then a nexus of conflict between DM/SB and Renegade, Marshmallow, and MZ.

Many others have sat on the sidelines here.

Finally is the vote chart. This is how many unique times a person voted for someone else:

https://i.imgur.com/CNTxSI6.png


Shoutout to @bakermir and @Helz who also like charts.

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Welp either Mike is terrible at coinflipping

Or Auwt is suspected to be Illuminati

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You found illuminato?

okay, well not having a lynch yesterday was garbage. Info was info. My instinct is to blame MM for not joining the Matt train when it was clear Frinckles wasn't going beyond L-2. Irrespective of his towny play, his decision cost us critical information on a slot he admitted had scumtells regardless of his earlier townread.

But this is also an opportunity to hear a less paniced explanation from mattzed of his actions so there is also opportunity and shit here. And I respect MM could easily "no u" what I just said and say I or others should have hopped on Frinckles. Tho, unless hindsight bias is getting in the way, I think it should be clear frinckles was being his usual slippery meta and there was nothing especially scummy about him.

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Originally Posted by MartinGG99

Welp either Mike is terrible at coinflipping

Or Auwt is suspected to be Illuminati

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Well then I can officially claim there isn't any Illuminati in this game.

BTW, sheriff here, Renegade is the consig

If we think about it for a minute, IFFFFF auwt is illuminati, that is very interesting because he has had relatively limited interactions with most people. Virtually no negative interactions compared to others.

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Originally Posted by Mesk514

BTW, sheriff here, Renegade is the consig

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Plan this in your night chat eh?

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Originally Posted by Mesk514

BTW, sheriff here, Renegade is the consig

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how do you know he's consig specifically

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Originally Posted by Renegade

Plan this in your night chat eh?

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Lmfao, cute, if you have a teammate, kill him, that will be great

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Originally Posted by Renegade

You found illuminato?

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Well according to my feedback yes

Its just worded as suspecting Auwt as illuminati

Of course if we're in A/D then Mike sucks at coin flipping.

I check him because I felt like he wasn't really brought up or interacted with all that much on D1, which may be indicative of scum subconsciously not interacting with their allies as much.

Or at least it's subconscious to me. I tend to not realize in my mafia games how rare it is for me to interact with my buddies unless I'm pushing/bussing them.

(I haven't read your full chart post yet btw)