How does the Save Failure Rate work?

So I was sick and tired of town gov being a useless fucking crier, because let's face it, Crier is very weak in current meta.

Unfortunately, excluding crier from town gov tends to cause a save failure rate of 4-7%.
And any weight below 0.3 for crier tends to cause a very small save failure rate that is <1% for 0.2, but increases to the 4-6% range as you reduce weight further.

What are the technicalities behind this? What causes that save failure rate and what is a possible scenario where the save "fails" because there's no crier?

I mean, to take a 7% chance max for save fail to make the town stronger seems like a good trade-off, I'm just curious for how does the save failure rate work, especially in the scenario where everything is fine EXCEPT crier weight being dangerously close to or effectively zero.

save "failure" rate is giving you the percent chance that a slot will be overridden to citizen due to some issue when the map tries to choose the roles.

This usually occurs due to some logical error in your setup. For example, adding a town protective slot to the game but then also excluding every protective role. The result is that it puts a citizen into that slot instead.

Anyway, I couldn't say what is causing it without seeing your entire save. If I had to guess, do you have an any random slot?

Regardless, you are looking at just 7/100 games having a citizen spawn instead of whichever slot is failing, which isn't that big of a deal.

ok i thought save failures could get a whole lot nastier like it will actually break the game like all hell breaks loose or something.

ok i have done some further experimenting. Two trends I noticed:

- If you exclude crier, the save failure/citizen pick chance is always between 4 and 7%, while crier chance is below 0.1%. It could be around 0.1% if crier weight is 0.1-0.3, but its usually crier chance 0%.

- As the weight of crier goes up, for as long as crier is included in town government, crier's chances completely shoot up to the normal chance of around 20% while citizen/save failure chance goes down and down. There's consistently NO chance of citizen/save failure starting at crier weight 0.3 and above.

here's further proof

https://i.imgur.com/4BLNhtD.png
https://i.imgur.com/mVvSOqy.png
https://i.imgur.com/frSVXRY.png
https://i.imgur.com/TNoJXne.png

For reference, my save:

https://i.imgur.com/oqWKs9D.png

Some things of note:
- No mafia AT all.
- No cult and masons at all.
- I know every single triad 8331 likes to exclude triad in the any random, but I don't. I know I get shit for it, but I won't discard this gimmick. It's the one thing keeping my save unique after 8331 replaced 933 as the meta.
- Town gov in every scenario i listed excludes citizen.
- Auditor is a thing.
- Judge is as low as crier in the normal scenario.

So the gameplay implications of this is that if I wanted to exclude crier, there you go.

However, now instead of a 20% chance crier instead of mayor/marsh, theres a 4-7% chance citizen instead of mayor/marsh.

Crier is a citizen who speaks at night and that's it.
Citizen is, well, a citizen who may have a vest and might win a 1v1 tie with triad.

So now the typical scenario of mayor/marsh being a thing is even higher, except now if someone speaks in night chat, people know OFF the bat that's judge. That means judge gonna have to shut up if he wants to be effective and catch the town leader by surprise. Basically the future meta once judge's night chat is removed.

But in the scenario we end up rolling this 4-7% chance, our town gov is now a citizen. He can't even confirm himself early game because people will suspect (not even confirm) the presence of auditor. He has no special abilities at all besides use a vest, which is a slight tradeoff for not being able to speak at night. There aren't even any fucking masons or cult in my save (for good reason, they don't work in a 8331.) How is citizen expected to confirm himself? How could citizen even be the town leader?

But when the update comes where judge's night chat is removed, and crier can be buffed, I might consider changing this back to "normal".

I don’t believe the town gov slot is failing. I’m not familiar with the code so I’m just hypothesizing, but I would guess the problem is that the town gov slot takes mayor/Marshall. With masons, cit, and crier excluded, if the any random tried to role as town gov then it would have zero options, creating the error.

This is just my guess though. Maybe @Frinckles or @Elixir are more familiar with the system.

Try removing the any random and see if you still get the failure rate, just to see if my theory is right

Your town random excludes government right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aamirus

Your town random excludes government right?

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town rand excludes govt

maybe if crier can spawn alongside mayor/marsh it would be fine. that would require crier probably being town power/gov. actually brb going to post that in suggestions.

In my experience, this happens a lot when gov unique roles spawn outside of of gov random, and so gov random has nothing left to spawn.

For example, any random -> crier, town random -> mayor, town gov -> nani?

My suggestion would be to not completely exclude citizens/masons as they aren't unique..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grakylan

town rand excludes govt

maybe if crier can spawn alongside mayor/marsh it would be fine. that would require crier probably being town power/gov. actually brb going to post that in suggestions.

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Crier can spawn with mayor/Marshall in the current version of the game. It often pops up in any random, that is why I’m suggesting that may be the source of your issue. If you already have a gov and any random tries to role gov with all the gov roles disabled.

The town gov slot is not broken. With your settings it will always be mayor/marshall. The problem is if a second town gov somehow gets rolled, you have all the options disabled

I’m thinking it may be worth having Frinckles add options to any random to allow it to exclude more specific role types the way the other random slots work

Ok so if I make town random include government, and town gov only be between mayor and marsh, then there's more chances of crier spawning alongside mayor right? But if i let town rand include govt, then a mayor and marsh can spawn alongside eachother, and I don't want that.

ok just tried to include govt in town random, resulting in a 11% save failure rate.

This shit's cursed. An error on town gov because I let town gov spawn in town random.

https://i.imgur.com/j6IPgXZ.png

so going back to the normal scenario of "Town gov excluded from town random, town gov btwn crier/marsh/mayor", theres a high chance of any not being the town gov, and the town gov having a good chance of being crier, cucking the town out of mayor/marsh.

I want there to be a guaranteed mayor/marsh, but i don't want both of them to exist at the same time. At the same time, I want the chance of crier to be high as possible WITHOUT compromising the mayor/marsh guarantee, and the chance of citizen to be as low as possible.

I think your best bet is the first setup you posted. To clarify for you, since you didn't seem to understand before: in that original setup (8331 crier excluded from town gov and town gov excluded from town random) you will always be getting a mayor/marshall. The 7% chance is the chance that the "ANY RANDOM" slot is flipping town gov, resulting in a 2nd impossible gov, resulting in a citizen. You would still have a mayor/marshall in the game. The citizen would only be taking the any random slot.

I can see how you would rather have that 2nd gov flip crier, but the only way to accomplish that is to leave crier enabled and just put the slider a lot lower than mayor/marshall, which doesn't guarantee a mayor/marshall.

Or put 2 town gov slots and you'd always have a mayor/marsh + crier.

Another option for you is to just choose between mayor/marshall. If you put one of them as a confirmed role in the roleslist, remove town gov, exclude everything but crier from town gov, and allow town random to be town gov, then you'd have a mayor/marshall (whichever one you put into the rolelist yourself), + a chance for crier appearing in town random.
This still would give an error rate, because now there would be 2 gov choices but 3 possible gov slots (town gov, town random, and any random). If this happens, you'd have a mayor/marshall, a crier, and then the other slot would flip citizen.
If you also excluded town gov from town random, then there should be zero error rate. A guaranteed mayor/marshall, and a slim chance that any random flips crier.


Also, mayor/marshall are mutually exclusive already. If you put 15 town gov slots, you'd get 1 mayor/marsh, and 14 citizens.


To get exactly what you want, we'd need to either add/move crier to another group, or add a mayor/marshall slot.

This is a standard 8331 with mayor and marshall sliders both maxed out and crier decreased to as low as it would let me go without a failure rate.

Notice that the percent chance of mayor/marshall adds up to over 98%. So in less than 2% of games you would have a crier alone as town gov.

I think that's not too bad

Attachment 26763

Quote:

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Originally Posted by aamirus

This is a standard 8331 with mayor and marshall sliders both maxed out and crier decreased to as low as it would let me go without a failure rate.

Notice that the percent chance of mayor/marshall adds up to over 98%. So in less than 2% of games you would have a crier alone as town gov.

I think that's not too bad

Attachment 26763

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10.0 weight for mayor and marsh was overkill, so I tuned mayor and marsh down to about 2.0 to 3.0 (in comparison, doctor is about 5.0), and crier to about 0.4. I didn't want town gov spawning out of town rand or any rand too often.

Also bumped up judge's weight a little bit as a counterweight to the increased "power" of crier

Most potential setups I saw via spamming -emulate like 50 times (i wasnt even counting, thats just an estimate i put in) seem to result in either mayor/marsh only, or mayor/marsh+crier. Only like 3 of them max were crier only, and only 3 of them max had an error/were mayor/marsh+crier+citizen (it fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.7%)

And yes, I checked. Citizen has both options checked, so a citizen can both fool town into thinking there may be auditor, but also be the one vest tiebreaker.

Seems pretty damn good for the current save builder. I will do that for now.