i've played 6 games last year (assuming i didnt play one i forgot to track) and i have a 50/50 ratio of rands lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
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i've played 6 games last year (assuming i didnt play one i forgot to track) and i have a 50/50 ratio of rands lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
I'd say "I'll explain more later" but I really won't,Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
I think those two posts from deathworlds aren't towny, but more specifically probably because I already find him near the bottom of my PoE.
Those two specific posts are easy posts a wolf can use to get towncred (example A: this post of yours) and also feign usefulness in thread without giving reads or actually interacting in more meaningful ways.
his post being excited about getting back is the towniest thing from his posting so far.
I was rereading the setup and saw that hidden PR can be a citizen, which sucks because if we have 1 mafia pretending to be a PR, and we only have 2 town PR, then there is no counter claims.
Since most PRs can be either alignments, it boil down to your basic scumhunting.
Oh a person claim detective? A doc? Well he can be mafia detective or doc too! I strongly believe that a massclaim should be in order on Day 2 if no mafia died.
That's actually sounding like a good idea right nowQuote:
Originally Posted by deathworlds
Have a good night guys, I'll check in tomorrow when people hopefully post some more.
Yeah its 3 am here too I’m heading to bed now
First impressions
Mizery
ikarusdk
Vittae
Marshmallow Marshall
Loldebite
powerofdeath
Deathworlds
Varcron
Vittae had a good opening that didn't involve a lot of mech discussion, something that is less likely for wolves to do in a semi-closed setup where talking about mech is 10% distraction, 20% fluff 15% wolves not wanting useful things to discuss, 50% helpful and 50% lame but 100% a possibility from both sides of the game
Ikarus in general is very pure and i wouldn't touch, especially one of his posts [insert post here] which was uberpure and towny of him.
Don't have a read on MM so far but Vittae has him as a gth townread rn it seems based on entry so I'll go with it because I can have a hard time seeing people who meme on entry and whatnot as Woflier than i probably should most of the time.
Based on their interactions the two wolves are likely not varcron/deathworlds and varcon's carelessness about how he is percieved in rambling about another game is slightly towny but not wanting to discuss it further if it's truly a good memory he wants to revisit makes it an option that he's trying to not get suspicion from being too far off topic
I'm not going to go into deathworlds much because my main suspicions come from his lack of content so far beyond mech discussion, and trying to boost varcron as a PR by saying the "i know what you're doing right now" as if other people aren't and wouldn't notice the callback, implying he wanted to make a point in thread to reference in the future when people ask him why he's not a wolf. He was also in thread when Ikarus posted the townread on him and despite interacting with other posts he ignores that one.
Power is solidly null with no content leaning wolfy from post in thread being disengaged and really only interacting with deathworlds about how long their break was which could imply more likely not w with death but easily fakeable and easy to turn my read around here if i feel the need.
Hey there ! I'm kinda mad at myself for missing SoD but I'll make up for it soon.
Gotta work a bit before I catch up, tho.
You completely forgot the AMAZIIIING Warcraft cohost ? BOOHOOQuote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
Well, I can't really blame you for it, I think one can count my posts that game on the fingers of the one hand...
Yeah, well, we're also supposed to have a vote history feature...Quote:
Originally Posted by deathworlds
Please do not click on that button
Great time to note that lynching is NOT mandatory, I assume this is achieved by voting "skip" ?Quote:
Originally Posted by deathworlds
Hey folks, catching up with stuff now.
-vote powerofdeath
Hi!Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
I'm guessing you didn't realise but several players here including Mizery play a lot of games on different mafia sites. That's what she'll be referring to, getting wolf multiple times in other games offsite.
To explain what I was personally reading into the post, I thought her enthusiasm was pretty town and it wasn't a post that a wolf was as likely to think of to make in a game as a villager but that the post had very likely been something Mizery thought of before being given their role (regardless of their alignment they were probably genuinely frustrated with randing wolf a bunch) so it's unlikely to give anything alignment indicative. I was mostly only asking on that post as it was the only post at the time that was
Sorry, sent that accidentally
I might've misread/misunderstood but I'm quite sure citizen is one of the very few role that scum CANNOT getQuote:
Originally Posted by powerofdeath
...that was something the active players at the time could discuss and potentially have different / interesting opinions on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
I would discard it as NAI now though.
Which brings me to my point : should we make citizens claim to clear out PoE ? I know, I know, it is lame and cringe...Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
So, should we be doing it ?
So basically a bucket-style massclaim where everyone says that they are either a citizen or a PR without specifying what PR specifically?Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Out of interest, what do you think that would accomplish?
On another note, since you (Vittę) and I seem to be the only ones online and active now that mizery's gone, feel free to engage me about whatever.
To help jumpstart that, here's a rushed fresh out of bed readslist :
cute people (T leaning)
Ikarusdk (seems genuinely eager to engage in actual discussion to me or much better at pretending than I'd expect, and also cute posts)
Varcron (Pretty good feeling about the interaction with deathworlds, above vittae for now because I know them a very tiny bit better)
Vittae (Good feeling about the slot, I sense cute vibes. Yeah that might be irrational, sue me)
boringly ordinary (odds are that idk how to read these but I'll pretend for now)
PoD (Not much to think about but I get the tiniest of cute vibes and )
deathworlds (I agree that the mech is NAI, and nothing felt especially good or especially bad)
mizery (I don't believe in judging off openings anyway, reads list is nice but honestly I'm pretty sure she would've done as much as any alignment)
uglies (S leaning)
MM (I very much dislike their last post to date. Sorting roles in utility buckets alone is worth doing, had I done that in my first game ever I would've seen you were scum much faster :)
Yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
Actually, do scum have a day chat too ? If they do the idea crumbles, probably.
I assume scum would have to have at least one of theirs fakeclaim citizen, if they do play it accurately we don't gain much except an extra WIFOM layer as a freebie. Regardless, we might gain something and as such it's worth discussing.
If you're afraid about town power roles getting outted & gutted, I wouldn't be. Citizens have the majority over scum, so we don't actually need any PR to win, provided we're good enough. That is assuming no extra NKP.
Lumi was probably trying not to set your expectations too high since I'm *supposed* to be taking this game very chill. But yeah thank you for clarifying about the volume here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall
I actually do know Miz well but since I've been on a break for a while a lot of my meta on her isn't applicable any more (not that I was any good at reading her in the first place despite her being in theory not too hard to read lol). And yeah, I agree with you that her first post is NAI. I like her immediate dive into solving on return, she is a surprisingly reliable villager but back when I used to play more frequently she rarely put out a lot of solving as a wolf and would be much more prone to blend into the background / coast and not actively try to push the game forward in the way that I feel she is doing in thus game with her early reads list post that shows some depth of thought behind it and the reads with which I broadly agree with.
So what I'm seeing from her aligns with how I would expect her to play as town, I'm just not really sure if her wolf range has caught up yet or not (until I check obviously).
I'd give her a very mild town lean until I catch up more.
Will give some of my own reads once I've caught up deb.
Mind talking to me about Vacron, PoD and MM in more detail? Those three are where our reads differ the most right now.
Specifically:
- Specifically what you like about the Varcron/deathworlds interaction.
- The "cute vibes" you're getting from PoD.
- You say you dislike MM's last post but why is that wolf-indicative and not as likely a villager making a post that you think is wrong?
Yeah pretty sure wolves were stated to have daychat so they could coordinate claims as needed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
I'm not against a massclaim on principle (there are several setups including the champs setup the year before last that I've seen broken from such a thing) but I'm not expecting it to give us a net positive here tbh. I can certainly take a more detailed look when I have the time though.
Wrapping up a big post but sparing a bit of time to answer quickly :Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
Not sure, felt genuine to me, not much of a "muhaha I am making them waste their precious time on me recollecting memories muhaha". That's about it, really
There is nothing to explain about PoD, I don't think I'm basing this feeling on anything remotely solid, call it a weak gut feeling if you will. In other words : there's nothing to explain, I don't know either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
I don't often assume someone is wrong when playing mafia (which admittedly has gotten me inaccurately turbo nitro hard tunneling on... some of this forum's least bright members). In fact, off the top of my head I can't recall a single time I've make that assumption. I guess I think assuming people are wrong is... wrong :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
Shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by MartinGG99
Actually, we DO gain something out of it : it gives us better information about the kind of setup we're playing. Assuming EXACTLY 1 scum fakeclaims citizen (which is the optimal response IMO) :
If town has 3 PR :
- 4 PR claims, 1 of which is scum : 25%
- 4 citizen claims, 1 of which is scum : 25%
If town has 2 PRs :
- 3 PR claims, 1 of which is scum : 33%
- 5 citizen claims, 1 of which is scum : 20%
Since even the informed majority does NOT know how many PRs there are, they can't adapt their response to unless they are the very last to claim. Which they might. Ugh.
If town has 3 PR :
- if BOTH scum fakeclaim citizens :
- 3 PR claims, 0% scum
- 5 citizen claims, 40% scum
- if BOTH scum claim PR (this should NEVER happen as this gives town the most information):
- 5 PR claims, 40% scum
- 3 citizen claim, 0% scum
If town has 2 PR :
- if BOTH scum fakeclaim citizens (shouldn't happen either but less terrible that both claiming PR with 3 TPR) :
- 2 PR claims, 0% scum
- 6 citizen claims : 33%
- if BOTH claim PR:
- 4 PR claims, 50% scum
- 4 citizen claims, 0% scum
Which means that the expected results are :
If town has 3 PR :
EITHER
- 4 PR claims, 1 of which is scum : 25%
- 4 citizen claims, 1 of which is scum : 25%
OR
- 3 PR claims, 0% scum
- 5 citizen claims, 40% scum
If town has 2 PRs :
EITHER
- 3 PR claims, 1 of which is scum : 33%
- 5 citizen claims, 1 of which is scum : 20%
OR
- 4 PR claims, 50% scum
- 4 citizen claims, 0% scum
Well this is disapointing.
Well I guess we could go for a 37.5% chance to lynch scum by randoming PRs !
Lol.
Mh actually I wonder if scum both claiming PR is a good idea, I'm starting to think that there is no good option for scum if the setup has only 2 TPRs.
Yeah, it was a good shout but I don't think it gives much of a benefit here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Worth noting though that us we did do a massclaim it would be best to do it in order from most likely wolf first to most likely villager last in order to force the wolf team to commit hopefully before they knew how many PRs there were. Wouldn't expect it to make much of a difference here though as the same strategy is optimal regardless.
The issue is that we don't know if 33% of the PR claims are scum or not in that case as both scum could also just claim citizen and laugh as we chop through our PRs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Also people seem to thing otherwise but town chemist is a really strong role actually.
Have to make sure not to be redirected but if they can successfully poison a player that's the equivalent of one free extra day elimination (as we have an even number of players) assuming the mafia team only has 1 kill per night.
Due to even numbers in this playerlist, unless other unexpected deaths happen a chemist miskill would not reduce the number of day eliminations available to us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Varcron
At our current rate with no extra kills we would just end up at a final 6 / final 4 situation and then vote no elimination anyway which means we'd be giving the wolf team an extra kill regardless and at least a chemist misskill would be on our terms not theirs.
The hypothetical chemist should obviously not go on a rampage though, just kill in the consensus while being wary of redirection roles the wolves may have (coach driver especially).
Sorry, I missed this. Appreciate your response but don't have a lot to add right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Do you have a lot of experience playing with MM? How would you describe his play as both alignments and how accurate are you at reasons him typically?
*reading him
Ikarus is the most open and shut town in the game right now, clearly demonstrating a level of depth of thought way beyond what I would expect from a player who is playing his first wolf game. He doesn't act nervous / awkward, avoid solving or have difficulties pushing wolf reads - all extremely common tells in 1st time wolves - and in fact he acts very strongly to the contrary for all of those things. He just seems very genuine and excited to solve and I have no troubles calling him town.
MM and Miz I've talked about already and have shaky townreads on both. These are both players I want to discuss more later on once I have a better understanding of their meta but I'm happy with the posting from both right now.
PoD is just not posting game-related content rn. If you look at every post they make below:
- Hello post
- Asks definition of a term
- Answers some questions from me that aren't directly game related, notably does not answer the game related question I ask. They self describe as an active player who prefers villager (but is better as mafia).
- A few small talk / fluff posts
- Setup spec
- Leaves
The only real game related thing they add is the suggestion of a D2 massclaim if no wolf is flipped and a reminder that PR claims can be wolves.
This reads as a wolf trying to blend in and appear active without contributing, making a reasonable number of posts but not actually adding anything solving-related to that. They were one of the few players around when the game first started were dead and despite checking in a few times also did nothing to try to start conversation.
Nothing that PoD has posted is bad but I'm leaning towards them being mafia on the basis that they seem to be trying to look active while avoiding any opportunity to solve given (even compared to the players who are focusing moreso on easy to fake mech posts, they're at least contributing something substantial from their perspective in a world where they're town even if the actual solving is lacking).
Will type up other reads in detail later.
@powerofdeath when you come back I'd appreciate if we could chat about some reads of yours? Let me know where your head is please.
Up to you if you'd rather do a reads list or just explain a few strong reads but either way I'd like to see some well explained reads from you.
Hello! Oh wow cannot believe I forgot about you in my post! I am so sorry haha. Won't be making that mistake again. Hope you are well!Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Mizery was a solid town player in my first game (although I would've liked more posts from her), so I believe you when you say she is a reliable town.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
Anyway I was on call so I had to work for a few hours since my last post. I am back but unfortunately it is now 1am for me so I must go to bed..... I'll continue to read until I fall asleep and perhaps I'll pick up on something to think about! I'll see you all in the morning..
My phone screen is broken where certain keys are on the keyboard so it'll be better for me to type on the computer once I wake up so I'm not incoherent.
And I'm sorry Mizery, I used he/his when referring to you. But now I know.
@deathworlds could you please link me your most recent games as both alignments?
As others have pointed out already, Death's ISO is also devoid of solving right now but some of Death's comments suggest they're very into mech and that this might be a NAI thing for them.
Basically every mech thing Death has said has been correct so far and they corrected several other players who were making incorrect points (they responded to several posts I also responded to during my catchup with similar points to me). Not that I think this is AI, I just agree with what they're saying and could definitely believe based on what I've seen that they genuinely enjoy talking about mech as town.
I also thought the post where they said they were enjoying themselves was pretty towny lol. Death just seemed really excited to talk about mech instead of peddling it to try to get into the game as a wolf.
They're close to null for me rn, definitely a PoE slot but I want to see how they typically play before I come to a full conclusion. They have a couple of redeeming features and comparatively their contributions are much better than PoD's (despite the latter getting much less attention for lack of contribution) but as other people have said the focus solely on mech is wolfy in a vacuum.
---------------------
Varcron's posting outside of the claim is also completely devoid of non-mech solving but I think the early claim in of itself is towny (even if I think it's unlikely that a villager has a truly useless role in this setup. I have thoughts on this but I don't want to dive into anything resembling public PR speculation so I'll keep those to myself. If varcron is genuinely a villager with a negative utility night action then they were smart in claiming immediately though).
Overall I think this is probably a villager even if I have concerns over the claim. I certainly don't vote here today unless there's 1. Serious concerns with Varcron's posting that make them the only good candidate (unlikely) or 2. There is some sort of massclaim/counterclaim (also unlikely) as it seems foolish to vote out a potential clear here when there are other good options to vote.
@Varcron assuming you're town please follow any advice given by my or Deathworlds' posts on your specific role but with the added caveat that the wolf team may choose to redirect you via operator is they have one since you outed your role.
---------------------
Looking at Deb now.
Not a fan of their entrance and the whole "Hi I'm checking in but can't post right now" and "I'm mad at myself for missing SoD" comments (paraphrased) are >rand wolf (these are pretty common wolf tells, can expand on them if asked though).
I found it mildly villagery how they initiated solving and posting reads in the thread at a point where half of the game was (and still is) not posting any solving-related content although given that Deb seems like a competent player I'm not putting too much stock into this (the effort is appreciated if you're town though deb). However, I felt that their reads were pretty thin and when I asked for an expansion on some of them the responses I got didn't really demonstrate a depth of thought beyond the surface level and the PoD/MM reads in particular I find extremely iffy. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt since they themselves considered it to be a rushed reads list and I've also had some very janky reads on rushed reads lists of my own as town.
Slight scum lean rn. @Loldebite mind linking me a few if your recent games as both alignments when you're back? Happy to chat with you as well if you'd like.
---------------------
Overall reads right now are looking like:
ikarusdk
Varcron
Marshmallow Marshall*
Mizery*
Deathworlds (Null)
Loldebite
powerofdeath
(* - Town but pending a higher effort meta analysis)
Things subject to change though as most people haven't posted a lot of content yet.
Meh, not really. I wouldn't dare say I have a lot of experience in anything FM related tbh but I've played a fair few games with MM, definitely more than anyone else in here. We also interact a fair amount outside of FM, which is where the feeling of familiarity comes from.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
I would say that, scum MM is most comfortable in soft powerwolfing position. He doesn't really want to be townleader or be in any kind of spotlight but he does enjoy having a position from which what he says is paid attention to, and from that place he seeds in pro-wolf reasonable doubt (which notably boils down to making excuses from scummy things that scum do). But take this with a grain of salt as, now that I think about it, that seems based off of mostly a single game lol
Spoiler : Vittae's wall about dw, varcron & me :
Lol, you've nicknamed me Deb, too, or have you simply heard it elsewhere (perhaps even in the thread lol) ?
Anyway, not so glad to see that I'm still being read as scum-leaning tho :D
Here's my latest game to date
And here's the one before that
And FTR that one was my first FM ever. I've played most games that took place in between, if you wanna have an extensive look.
Oh and sorry - I should've asked first but I was too happy to have the opportunity - are you cool with me spelling your name Vittę ?
-vote Vittae
I dont really see the reason for fosing me beside low amount of posts
Ah ok I didn't realise you were a relatively inexperienced player, that recontextualises some of your posts for me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
Deb is just because I was trying to shorten your name and calling you lol what too confusing and nothing else really worked better than deb.
And yeah Vittę is totally fine.
Thanks for the rest of your responses, I'll look into them shortly.
It's not because of the low amount of posts, it's because of the reasonably high amount of posts and you being present in the thread for some time but yet having the lowest quality content-to-post ratio of any player in this game. Deathworlds has at least contributed significantly to mech discussions outside of solving and Varcron has contributed some things to mech + has a claim I believe is villagery.Quote:
Originally Posted by powerofdeath
I'm not sure why you as town would want to OMGUS me here when I'm only lightly pressuring you and trying to encourage you to post meaningful content so that I can find you if you're town. This response once again feels like a wolf taking the easy way out and struggling to post any real content.
If you are a villager, please respond to my previous request for some of your reads + explanations instead of OMGUSing me with a strawman argument and disappearing again.
If you are a villager we do not have enough margin for error this game to eliminate villagers and in the case you are one you are absolutely a designated miselim for the wolves right now and that's something that you should definitely be trying to change.
@Mizery mind linking some of your recent wolf games? The most recent non-turbo ones I have of you are way too old to be relevant (from July last year apparently).
Mmmm, the perfect springboard to jump into other subjects absolutely is RVS, though, and this kind of discussion normally kills RVS without replacing it with highly alignment-indicative events, which is bad. And to answer your question, the answer is actually "yes, that might actually be better" lol. But that wasn't really my main point; my point was that your post looked a little performative. Making a big post to say "anti-town PRs shouldn't act if they're town" and "I think the setup has this composition" holds in like 3 sentences normally, and I believe you have tricked me as scum before by making walls because I generally like walls.Quote:
Originally Posted by deathworlds
I agree, but was it towny? In fact, that's basically what I'm saying: it looks good, but does it actually do anything else?Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
So I'm not allowed to fos you? You will just shove it off as omgus then?Quote:
Originally Posted by Vittae
Also is wolf supposed to be term for being Mafia? I assume from a different website meta where wolf is the scum
I do appreciate deathworlds putting in a lot of work in figuring out the setup.
With that being said, theres a high chance he probably did it before the game started, before he even know his own role, so this have 0 say in his alignment.
This is probably my strongest townread. I dont think this is something a mafia will say right out of the gate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Varcron
I've only skimmed through the rest of what has been said, but first thing that catches my eye since I was talking about walls:
This feels like the "right kind" of mechanical talk: it actually indicates what happens in a rationally conducted game (and tells us that claims should be delayed to avoid giving info to scum so that they can't adjust their fake claims). I am tempted to give Debbie a preliminary townread for this - it's not strong, but I see someone actively trying to figure out what should be done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loldebite
@ikarusdk I am curious to see what you think about this vs Deathworlds' mechanical talk :)
Also I'm pretty super rusty, I keep rereading the game and keep forgetting I was supposed to be figuring out if theyre mafia or not.
I guess I only got 1 townread and 1 scum lean read. Yeah I do fos Vitae for fosing me. OMGUS is a perfect play for me as of right now.
I agree - and I believe that for this exact reason, we should try not to give scum too many clues on what his role is. He is towny for his claim (there's little reason for scum to claim this right away), and thus should likely be trusted to reveal info if necessary; until we have flips to solve, sharing info on what he exactly is can't really help us.Quote:
Originally Posted by ikarusdk
... which is why I don't exactly like the post Varcron made in response to that, so I'll just leave it there lol