The thing I'm struggling with most is, if PQ is town, then did Martin just give town a congress chat with 3 town in it?? Or which between oliver and Gikkle is the wolf?
The only scenario I can imagine a 3 person town congress is if wolves have a 2 person team consisting of two of SA/Mayor/Judge (but lmao if that's the case this game)
Because otherwise if all 3 of them are town, that means that there are 3 wolves among Gov, Medic, Judge, Mayor. But can't have Mayor + Judge because a 3 person team with two vote power manipulators gives town one less mis-chop before they lose.
But given the way you're playing this day, the only possible team would be Pao/MM/SB16
But even typing out a Medic, Gov, Judge team feels silly because that's OP for wolves lol.
Which means there's just a wolf in the congress
This is what I'm saying, one of Gikkle/Oliverz is scum.
December 20th, 2021, 08:29 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverz144
Or better
Im happy with no lynch
Yes
I will refrain from voting
Is eod in 5h?!?
Skipping is not an option. Someone will die with a plurality even if it is a tie between people with a single vote.
December 20th, 2021, 08:32 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverz144
Or better
Im happy with no lynch
Yes
I will refrain from voting
Is eod in 5h?!?
Huh? How much sleep did you get? Town can only eliminate Mafia by lynching. By not voting you are only allowing Mafia to cast their votes and induce a lynch by plurality. There will not be a "no lynch" and voting for no-lynch is not allowed in this setup. Even 1 vote, if highest count, will trigger a lynch (and even if 0 votes, host probably just RNG all 8 players lol and lynch 1).
December 20th, 2021, 08:32 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
I'm just terrified we hit wrong between MM and SB and game is basically over.
December 20th, 2021, 08:47 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverz144
Or better
Im happy with no lynch
Yes
I will refrain from voting
Is eod in 5h?!?
Refraining from voting does not help here. If you are town, you need to be voting. We are down to the wire.
December 20th, 2021, 08:51 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
-vote Marshmallow Marshall
December 20th, 2021, 08:55 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Rereading MM right now - does he have the more genuine read on PQ? By that, I mean, is stealth only taking advantage of the PQ train d2 and d3? MM has been on PQ since d1.
December 20th, 2021, 09:01 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
I honestly feel that MM and SB pushing PQ today clears him. But I think it will be difficult to get others to realize this since I have scum equity and Lag already thinks the team is me + PQ + Paopan.
Lag, Oliverz, Gikkle, and Paopan:
At least ONE of SB/MM is scum. Them both being on PQ is extremely concerning.
At least entertain the idea that I am town. In that scenario, what would the teams be in your mind?
@Gikkle
@Lag
@NotPaopan
@Oliver
s144
I'm just terrified we hit wrong between MM and SB and game is basically over.
If we suppose there is only 1 scum in MM+SB, then that would mean 2 scum in Gikkle+Lag+Oliver (or Paopan trolled us hard as a mastermind scum~Medic and as a genius expressed willingness to lynch either MM or SB). I don't think this is likely, but if I entertain the idea, then let's look at the possibilities.
First, assuming MM is scum.
MM+Gikkle+Oliver would mean 2 scum Congressmen, which I find unlikely. And oliver has been wary of Gikkle/3rd CMAN unless I got played in C-chat and they were teammates all along. Anyway, I doubt this is the case, but let me know what you think.
MM+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. But do we believe MM+Lag were bussing each other this heavily D2? If so, then maybe they deserve the win. Do you think MM+Lag could have been bussing to this extent? (I don't)
MM+Lag+Oliver. Plausible PR+Voter+CMAN. This is one I need to check more into, as it is concerning that Oliver has not committed to being willing to lynch MM. But this would also mean that Oliver bussed Lag by keeping vote on her D2 and by voting her again D3 and responding to her comments negatively today. Why do this D3 if he could sit back and wait for people to vote PQR or SB. I will also remind that Oliver unvoted me when I reached L-1 (or was it L-2? I forget, but it's when I felt obligated to reveal as CMAN and did so) D2. There are other hints that Oliver is not team with Lag, like him pointing out to MM when Lag (now known to be fake-)claimed Medic. And then there is this, which I doubt Oliver as scum would put this trio into suspect list (1 scum in 3), then proceed to kill Loldebite and bring it to 1 in 2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverz144
Guys
Are you blind
There is a scum in lag, gikkle, loldebite
There has to be one
No town cmen would ever fake claim voter
And there is 1 cmen less than needed
And 1 voter more than real
There is a scum cmen in the voters claim
No town cmen would claim voter
Next, I will post what if SB is scum and MM is not.
December 20th, 2021, 09:05 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
-unvote
for now
December 20th, 2021, 09:07 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by PQRnHack
If we suppose there is only 1 scum in MM+SB, then that would mean 2 scum in Gikkle+Lag+Oliver (or Paopan trolled us hard as a mastermind scum~Medic and as a genius expressed willingness to lynch either MM or SB). I don't think this is likely, but if I entertain the idea, then let's look at the possibilities.
Spoiler : to avoid large walls :
First, assuming MM is scum.
MM+Gikkle+Oliver would mean 2 scum Congressmen, which I find unlikely. And oliver has been wary of Gikkle/3rd CMAN unless I got played in C-chat and they were teammates all along. Anyway, I doubt this is the case, but let me know what you think.
MM+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. But do we believe MM+Lag were bussing each other this heavily D2? If so, then maybe they deserve the win. Do you think MM+Lag could have been bussing to this extent? (I don't)
MM+Lag+Oliver. Plausible PR+Voter+CMAN. This is one I need to check more into, as it is concerning that Oliver has not committed to being willing to lynch MM. But this would also mean that Oliver bussed Lag by keeping vote on her D2 and by voting her again D3 and responding to her comments negatively today. Why do this D3 if he could sit back and wait for people to vote PQR or SB. I will also remind that Oliver unvoted me when I reached L-1 (or was it L-2? I forget, but it's when I felt obligated to reveal as CMAN and did so) D2. There are other hints that Oliver is not team with Lag, like him pointing out to MM when Lag (now known to be fake-)claimed Medic. And then there is this, which I doubt Oliver as scum would put this trio into suspect list (1 scum in 3), then proceed to kill Loldebite and bring it to 1 in 2.
Next, I will post what if SB is scum and MM is not.
Yeah, I don't see MM+Lag together as scum.
Oliverz is really concerning me which his goofiness today. Voting Lag too.
Of the three unfortunately I would say Oliverz + Gikkle + MM makes the most sense, provided MM is scum.
December 20th, 2021, 09:07 AM
Marshmallow Marshall
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
I have no time rn, just checking to see where we're going and ?????????? WHY AM I THE LEADING TRAIN
@Lag
@oliverz144
@Gikkle
you three are probably town; worst case scenario, one of you is scum. Please do not forget to place a vote on PQ. And if you are not already convinced that this is the way to go, just check EoDs, the votecounts, the circumstances around them and - Heaven forbid - my posts about PQ if you haven't read them for real yet. See the spam, see the lynch deflection (twice), see the disingenuous behavior....
Also, Renegade is only strenghtening my scumread on them by literally suggesting I'm scum with PQ. Like, you need to smoke some serious stuff to think that for real xD. I've been trying to lynch him since D1, and had many occasions to get him 100 % spared while remaining unsuspected. For example, I could easily have not posted a "PLOT TWIST" post about my read on Voss and kept scumreading him; if you check the votecount on D2, that would have turned the 50/50 into a 100 % Voss lynch. This is really as simple as it gets, and town!Renegade not seeing this makes no sense, considering he's not a noob or a really low-tier player.
December 20th, 2021, 09:08 AM
Marshmallow Marshall
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
I will try to be back before EoD if possible, but I cannot promise anything. Going off
December 20th, 2021, 09:09 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marshmallow Marshall
I have no time rn, just checking to see where we're going and ?????????? WHY AM I THE LEADING TRAIN
@Lag
@oliverz144
@Gikkle
you three are probably town; worst case scenario, one of you is scum. Please do not forget to place a vote on PQ. And if you are not already convinced that this is the way to go, just check EoDs, the votecounts, the circumstances around them and - Heaven forbid - my posts about PQ if you haven't read them for real yet. See the spam, see the lynch deflection (twice), see the disingenuous behavior....
Also, Renegade is only strenghtening my scumread on them by literally suggesting I'm scum with PQ. Like, you need to smoke some serious stuff to think that for real xD. I've been trying to lynch him since D1, and had many occasions to get him 100 % spared while remaining unsuspected. For example, I could easily have not posted a "PLOT TWIST" post about my read on Voss and kept scumreading him; if you check the votecount on D2, that would have turned the 50/50 into a 100 % Voss lynch. This is really as simple as it gets, and town!Renegade not seeing this makes no sense, considering he's not a noob or a really low-tier player.
Please please please address the main topic at hand. Which is, assume I'm town, then don't you find it concerning that both YOU and SB are on PQ today?
That is where I'm coming from.
If you are town then FMPOV Stealth is scum, but you've been townreading them.
December 20th, 2021, 09:10 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
You're riding this PQ hack scum train since day 1, but I've seen nothing but sincere game solving from him from D2 on.
December 20th, 2021, 09:11 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
You're riding this PQ hack scum train since day 1, but I've seen nothing but sincere game solving from him from D2 on.
If I've been duped, then damn. But it doesn't make fucking sense for him to be scum.
December 20th, 2021, 09:11 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.
SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde). SB+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.
December 20th, 2021, 09:11 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
PQ spam ended day 1. I think.
December 20th, 2021, 09:12 AM
Marshmallow Marshall
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
Please please please address the main topic at hand. Which is, assume I'm town, then don't you find it concerning that both YOU and SB are on PQ today?
That is where I'm coming from.
If you are town then FMPOV Stealth is scum, but you've been townreading them.
NO, I do not find it concerning that someone I have been townreading since D1 sees what I am seeing about the bloody obvious scum lol. And your reasoning for this seems to be "they're PRs so one has to be scum", which is really just setup speculation and is unreliable, as was already said in the thread. The main topic at hand is that PQ is literally the scummiest person I've seen in a long time for reasons I've laid out countless times, not setup speculation-related cloudy hypotheticals.
AND NOW I'M OFF FOR REAL
December 20th, 2021, 09:13 AM
Marshmallow Marshall
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
You're riding this PQ hack scum train since day 1, but I've seen nothing but sincere game solving from him from D2 on.
in the off-chance you're town, please check EoDs and just see how he escapes lynches magically and random townies who shouldn't have been lynched according to thread logic magically get lynched instead
I woke up expecting some sort of solve from you, but instead right now it looks more like you're polling the room to see if you can get a town to flip to wolf side and make the votes 4v4
Like I get how things are concerning... Assuming you're town. But there is little reason to make that assumption without a plausible alternative
December 20th, 2021, 09:44 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
I think this has to be the lynch today. If Stealth happens to flip town, game can still go on.
-vote Stealthbomber16
December 20th, 2021, 09:45 AM
Lumi
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverz144
Bruh. D1 d2 i was conftown lock to you
Bow im not
-vote lag
Oliver please read the posts in full
I'm saying these teams are unlikely because I consider you obvtown
Like I think the wolves are Pao, PQ, and Ren because I think you are town.
I woke up expecting some sort of solve from you, but instead right now it looks more like you're polling the room to see if you can get a town to flip to wolf side and make the votes 4v4
Like I get how things are concerning... Assuming you're town. But there is little reason to make that assumption without a plausible alternative
This is the solve.
If stealth flips town, then it goes to 7 alive, 2-3 scum. Assuming a townie dies and I survive at night, then it goes tomorrow to 6 people, at least 2 of which are scum, and me plus two town is a majority of 4 votes. If stealth flips town MM has to be scum and we vote MM tomorrow.
December 20th, 2021, 09:46 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
If MM is scum I'm 100% sure Oliverz is scum, he would be the next lynch.
December 20th, 2021, 09:49 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Day 3 lynch: Stealth, 7 players remaining
If Stealth is town
Townie dies at night, 6 players remaining
Left with Mayor + at least 2 town to vote MM.
Day 4 lynch: MM
If medic is dead, and they kill me at night, it could go to 2v2. Game over?
Fuck
December 20th, 2021, 09:51 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Day 3 lynch: MM, 7 players remaining
if MM is town,
townie dies at night, 6 players remaining, stealth removes my votes
Left with 6 players, 5 votes, scum wins if they have 3.
December 20th, 2021, 10:04 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
Day 3 lynch: Stealth, 7 players remaining
If Stealth is town
Townie dies at night, 6 players remaining
Left with Mayor + at least 2 town to vote MM.
Day 4 lynch: MM
If medic is dead, and they kill me at night, it could go to 2v2. Game over?
Fuck
Unfortunately, it is worse than that, because you're assuming all 3 town vote in unison D4 and not a single townie mis-votes (although mafia killing you or Pao should at least convince Lag that her triple suspects are not correct; that is assuming Lag is even town but I still think she is, as opposed to Gikkle). We definitely need to lynch mafia today.
December 20th, 2021, 10:10 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
@oliverz144
Lag isn't getting lynched today, and you need to vote. MM or SB.
Or at least tell me who you would be willing to vote.
December 20th, 2021, 10:11 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Mechanically I think SB has to go.
December 20th, 2021, 10:25 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
D3 Lynch MM, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with likely 3 votes (SB scum), 2 mafia remaining. Town is still OK but need to vote in unison and lynch a Mafia.
D3 lynch SB, flips scum.
N3 kill Pao or Rene (assuming mafia wins the 50%)
D4 4 towns remaining with 4-5 votes, 2 mafia remaining. Town can afford a mislynch.
Assume we lynch a mafia today (as the failure to do so is a terrible situation). Which lynch would be more informative (considering we still need to correctly identify 2nd and 3rd suspects)? Either one would clear Pao, PQ, and Rene (one of Pao/Rene will not be here D4, I am sure, and that will also become a 2nd clearing as they flip green) and at least allow remaining 2 townies (besides myself and the survivor in Pao/Rene) on D4 to correct their erroneous view (if applicable, such as if Lag is town) of the game as of D3 (those 2 remaining townies would be among survivor of SB/MM lynch + Gikkle + Lag + Oliver).
SB16 flipping red largely clears Oliver, while MM flipping red does not clear Oliver. From that POV, coupled with town's opportunity for a mislynch D4, seems like SB16 would be the better lynch unless we strongly believe MM is more likely scum than SB (better than a 50/50). I still think both of them are scum, so to me it is as good as 50/50 anyway, if not for additional benefits of one vs the other, like what I stated above.
@Renegade
is there any way that either Gikkle or Lag gets cleared by one or the other (MM,SB) flipping red? I think not, but may as well hear from you and others, in case I missed something.
December 20th, 2021, 10:27 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
@oliverz144
Lag isn't getting lynched today, and you need to vote. MM or SB.
@oliverz144
I agree with this, there is no way Lag is a more likely suspect than SB, MM, and Gikkle, even despite her disastrous read that Rene+Pao+PQ are scum.
December 20th, 2021, 10:30 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Is Gikkle a viable lynch today? In that, leaving both the powers alive?
December 20th, 2021, 11:04 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
:love: :love: :love:
December 20th, 2021, 11:11 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renegade
I honestly feel that MM and SB pushing PQ today clears him. But I think it will be difficult to get others to realize this since I have scum equity and Lag already thinks the team is me + PQ + Paopan.
Lag, Oliverz, Gikkle, and Paopan:
At least ONE of SB/MM is scum. Them both being on PQ is extremely concerning.
At least entertain the idea that I am town. In that scenario, what would the teams be in your mind?
@Gikkle
@Lag
@NotPaopan
@Oliver
s144
As I have mentioned earlier.
Good thunder domes for today are mainly between SB/MM.
On the other hand, Gikkle/Lag works for everyone too.
To be honest I wanted to get rid of MM because he already pocketed Oliver/Gikkle. And him flipping scum would help us proceed.
Another much safer option that I'm okay with is a thunder dome between Gikkle and Lag.
December 20th, 2021, 11:12 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by NotPaopan
As I have mentioned earlier.
Good thunder domes for today are mainly between SB/MM.
On the other hand, Gikkle/Lag works for everyone too.
To be honest I wanted to get rid of MM because he already pocketed Oliver/Gikkle. And him flipping scum would help us proceed.
Another much safer option that I'm okay with is a thunder dome between Gikkle and Lag.
I am okay with either SB or MM lynch for today. Not PQ
December 20th, 2021, 11:19 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation, so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4.
So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?
Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.
Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).
Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.
December 20th, 2021, 11:23 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by PQRnHack
So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation, so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4.
So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?
Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.
Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).
Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.
If we are going to the Gikkle route, that's definitely more of letting all power roles alive.
Gikkle/Lag roles are useless whilst SB/MM slots are power slots
December 20th, 2021, 11:24 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by NotPaopan
If we are going to the Gikkle route, that's definitely more of letting all power roles alive.
Gikkle/Lag roles are useless whilst SB/MM slots are power slots
Oh and also, Gikkle flipping scum here would implicate MM is his scum partner. FMPOV
December 20th, 2021, 11:26 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by NotPaopan
Oh and also, Gikkle flipping scum here would implicate MM is his scum partner. FMPOV
Another thing is Lag flipping scum, then SB is scum too. Again, FMPOV
December 20th, 2021, 11:29 AM
PQRnHack
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by PQRnHack
Second, assuming that SB16 is scum and MM is not.
SB+Lag+Oliver is not likely as it would mean Oliver is a genius bussing both SB and Lag with his votes on them today. And he could have taken the opportunity to sit back and put a vote on PQR or MM.
SB+Gikkle+Oliver is not likely for same reasons as in earlier post (2 CMEN scum, Oliver openly expressing concern about scum in Gikkle+Lag+Lolde). SB+Gikkle+Lag. Plausible, PR+CMAN+Voter. I need to look into this one further. I do see that SB voted Lag at one point, will check how that looks for a possible bus.
Revisiting SB+Gikkle+Lag scenario.
SB16 voted Lag here in #778 in response to Rene's vote on Lag when Lag was MIA for a while. Can definitely be within the framework of a [super weak] bus vote, so this composition is still viable.
December 20th, 2021, 11:31 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by PQRnHack
So assuming Gikkle is scum and mafia land a kill N3, we start D4 with 4 town and 2 Mafia. Town will still have at least 3 votes so we're good for a 3v2 (voting choice may be restricted depending on Pardon)
a) If D4 we lynch another mafia, then we're still good because after N4 kill, we start D5 with 3 town (at least 2 votes) and 1 mafia.
b) if D4 we mislynch a townie, then they kill N4, we arrive at D5 at a 2v2. The 2v2 is either lost by town when SB16 is scum (removes 1 of town's 2 votes) or it's a straight 2v2 (because mafia would have killed town~SB N4). Not a good situation, so I would say that if we lynch Gikkle D3 (and is scum) then we must also correctly lynch scum D4.
So what advantage is there to lynching Gikkle D3 as opposed to on a later day? It's like postponing the decision we eventually have to make (either now D3 or later D4 after lynching Gikkle) about MM/SB. By lynching Scum~Gikkle, would we learn anything new to help improve the voting decisions later on? I would not count on MM or SB to switch votes to Gikkle D3, so I dont think there will be information to be gained (not to mention that if there were to be any information, it could be just scum voting another scum Gikkle to deceive us). Maybe we could try to gain information from MM/SB (if one of them is even town) after they realize Gikkle was scum therefore PQ Pao Rene etc are not scum, but at that point it will turn into bussing (SvS) or realshow vs fakeshow (if TvS) shitshow. Would such D4 discussion improve our odds to make the right decision (compared to where we are today D3), i dont know?
Scum SB lynch D3 provides for more flexibility D4 and a D4 mislynch is survivable.
Scum MM lynch D3 is comparable to Scum Gikkle lynch (aside from Pardon use available to MM).
Town *whoever* lynch D3 is bad and almost game over.
Scum MM far outweighs Gikke cos of the oliver slot.
Yes, if we are going to avoid the power roles today, we are essentially postponing the decision today, but for tomorrow, the options are going to get thinner?I really don't want to count the chickens here yet. But let me know what do you think?
December 20th, 2021, 11:35 AM
NotPaopan
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by PQRnHack
Revisiting SB+Gikkle+Lag scenario.
SB16 voted Lag here in #778 in response to Rene's vote on Lag when Lag was MIA for a while. Can definitely be within the framework of a [super weak] bus vote, so this composition is still viable.
That's what I also think as shown in #1464 SB/MM + Gikkle/Lag + (3rd) Oliver/Ren
Becos of Ren's input. I'm beginning to think we should avoid the power roles for today. And then we can decide depending on their night action who to vote tomorrow. But fuck, this looks like I'm looking away at the prize.
December 20th, 2021, 11:35 AM
Renegade
Re: S-FM 336: (Ladder) Politico II
Quote:
Originally Posted by NotPaopan
Scum MM far outweighs Gikke cos of the oliver slot.
Yes, if we are going to avoid the power roles today, we are essentially postponing the decision today, but for tomorrow, the options are going to get thinner?I really don't want to count the chickens here yet. But let me know what do you think?
@PQRnHack
if we delay the power vote, it may still keep me in the pool of Scum power from others POV. Not sure if that is a good or a bad thing.
I feel like scum power has to be dealt with today.