Originally Posted by
Frog
It's also a horrible strategy as it's mathematically improbable in almost every setup.
Who here completed 8th grade math? (I realize this varies country to country)
Let's assume this setup for example.
Ika suggests a 4 player block.
14 players, 5 are scum/non town.
If you know yourself to be town (say D1 mayor reveal to make it simpler), you are excluded from this pool.
In a pool of 13 players, 5 are scum. If 3 players are picked at random what is the probability they are all scum?
There are C(5,3) ways to pick a group of 3 scum out of 5.
There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 3 players out of 13.
So the probability is [C(5,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(120/12)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 10/286
or 1 in 28.6 chances that a towny would pick 3 scum at random
What is the probability of at least 1 being scum?
We find the complement event and subtract from 1.
The complement event of at least one scum is having no scum, which means all town.
There are C(8,3) ways to pick a group of 3 towns out of the 8.
There are C(13,3) ways to pick any group of 2 players out of the 9.
So the probability is [C(8,3)] / [C(13,3)] = [(40320/720)] / [(6227020800/21772800)] = 15/286
or 1 in 5+ chances that a towny would pick 3 townies at random.
So without doing the rest... the odds are 4+/5 that one scum is in the block, with a pretty good chance of picking 2 scums in your 4 person block.
For this particular setup, it would be mathematically stupid to POE. Not to mention boring and unfun.
There's a place for POE, this is NOT the setup for it AT ALL.