Vault 5 Final Thoughts [Archive]

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Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 10:55 AM

Hidden Enclave - Gaunt (Framer)
Hidden Wastelander
Hidden NCR
Hidden NCR - Steve (citizen, dead)
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Law (actress)
Hidden Any
Hidden Any

My Wifom Predictions posted in day 3:

Hidden Enclave - Francine
Hidden Wastelander Brady
Hidden NCR - Yoshimitsu
Hidden NCR -Gaunt
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Steve (citizen, dead)
Hidden Any- Law
Hidden Any - Gaunt

My Actual Predictions:

Hidden Enclave - Gaunt (Framer)
Hidden Wastelander - (Brady)
Hidden NCR - (Yoshimitsu = investigative role)
Hidden NCR - Steve (citizen, dead)
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Law (actress)
Hidden Any - Francine (brotherhood)
Hidden Any - Ackbar (dead)

Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 11:29 AM

http://pathfindersoftware.com/wp-content/uploads/untitled1.jpg

1)Yoshimitsu
theroy: NCR Investigative Role
reasoning: these are highlights of yoshimitsu that make me think he is a threat and that he wifoms town pr and is a smart player

Day 1:

Yoshi: First question: Out of everyone in the vault, besides Brady, who would you feel comfortable voting and why?

This is just my opinion, but I would say Hayley. She is very confrontational, from what I've seen, and isn't afraid to bitch someone out. I think this is a might be a mafia ploy, pretending to be cit, pretending to be power role.

Anyone else?

Gaunt (me): I am a little bit suspcious of Hayley but not because she got mad when I made a joke about the no night actions but rather because she tried to distort the information.

Besides, now we atleast have a good idea who is town inside of this vault, only one person is scum if I read the rules of the vault correctly. Just look for the scummiest person there is, like Bradley for example.

She admits that she read the rules of the vault but tries to distort the game information. Like I said there are three random any roles which are a wildcard. While she could have just misread the rules making her stupid I am more inclined to give her credit and think she was trying to distort the rules for people who weren't paying as much attention to them. Simply saying "Just look for the scummiest person there is, like Bradley" is perfect way to survive yourself and get others lynched and kill the discussion that the town needs to scum hunt.

It is really suspicious to me to the point that I might be willing to vote Hayley later but right now it just doesn't feel like enough to go on. The problem is we have a lack of information which is why we should have more discussion.

Gaunt (me):
Ideally we need to pinpoint two scum targets - one mafia and one benigh neutral. I honestly think that Steve is a citizen, since he mentioned "clue". Wherether his future clues will be credible or not, we will see it only in the next day

True, I am really curious about the Clue mechanic as well. If he isn't citizen it will be fun to see what he makes up.

-unvote steve
-vote Hayley

I would rather just vote Brady but this vaults mechanic's are messed up and in my mind Hayley is the scummiest out of anyone contributing.

Francine: The worst thing is that hidden any could be another Enclave member. It is definitely worse then having one Enclave member and one Brotherhood member in vault. But we don't need seach for "random" any right now, we need to seach for a hidden Enclave member. Right now my primary suspicions are on Hayley.

-vote Hayley

Yoshi: Ah yes, things happened the exact way I wanted them too. I purposely put up Hayley's name (and I question I was sure no one would answer (which I was also right about)) to try and weed out scum voters looking for a train to start. I didn't expect Steve to vote Hayley and that boggles me, because I really do think he is a citizen, for now.

But now, I'm setting my sights onto Gaunt and Francine, the two people who jumped on Hayley as soon as I mentioned her name.

If only one of them were scum, then I'd put my money of Francine for a variety of reasons.

1. She appears to be helpful to the town by posting tallies, and defending people who, I think, are obviously town.

2. She isn't actually helpful to anyone, she hasn't actually called anyone out, and she hasn't started her own line of suspicion yet.

3. She was searching for the citizen. While this seems to be pro-town due to her explanation, it is far from. If she find the citizen, then she knows who each and every non-citizen is.

4. Quick jump. She jumped on the Hayley train right after with no explanation whatsoever for her vote besides saying that her primary suspicions are on Hayley.

thus -vote Francine

Yoshi:Now the reason I don't think Gaunt is scum is for one very simple reason. He started the train on Hayley, which is not a safe lynch whatsoever, unlike the Steve lynch that Francine started before he showed up. Even I would have joined that lynch since not contributing is even worse than be scum (hence why I keep my vote on Brady).

I don't think scum has the balls to start a risky lynch that could cause people to question their motives on Day 1.

Gaunt (Me): Nice gambit Yoshimitsu as Ackbar would say

http://i64.photobucket.com/albums/h184/krevster/trap.png

I thought something was fishy with your analysis of Hayley but I came to my own conclusions.

That being said Francine doesn't strike me as scum, though I agree she didn't properly explain why we should get a citizen claim. I think she is just holding back in a similar way to how you were holding back.

Day 2:

Yoshimitsu: On another note Francine, if I told you I was an investigator, and investigated you last night. What would your initial reaction be?

Same goes to you Gaunt.

Just letting you know, if I was an investigator, I visited one of you to. You guys better tell the truth.

Francine: Sorry, Yoshimitsu, but NCR does NOT have an investigator. Mafia DOES has Consigliere though. And because of that, my finger of suspicion is now on you. Why you mentioned investigator while there is NO town-aligned investigator?

-vote Yoshimitsu

By the way, if I was really investigated by NCR town role, I would be relieved. The problem is, there are not many reliable investigation roles in the town. Just what are you, Yoshimitsu?

Yoshimitsu: I was asking a question, not roleclaiming. Learn the difference.

Francine: And I just answered it to you.

Was "investigator" a relative term of yours, perhaps? Does it mean investigative town power role in general?

Yoshimitsu: For me, Investigator includes all sheriff types, detective, and lookout

Francine: Well, I guess I was rash in my thinking. Sorry about that.

-unvote Yoshimitsu

I assume that you know something about me already, aren't you?

Gaunt (Me): My initial reaction would be yeah so?
See there isn’t an investigator there is only a Sheriff so I’m just gonna assume you meant that, also the only confirmed NCR role is Sane Sheriff.
Sheriff Rolecard…

Abilities: At night you may check a single target. If your target is an NCR or Benign Neutral role they will come up as 'Not Suspicious'. Otherwise your target will come up as 'Suspicious'.

You do NOT know what kind of Sheriff you are, however.

A Sane Sheriff will behave as normal.
A Naive Sheriff will see everyone as 'Not Suspicious'.
A Paranoid Sheriff will see everyone as 'Suspicious'.
An Insane Sheriff will see 'Suspicious' people as 'Not Suspicious' and vice versa.
All Sheriffs are NCR-aligned.

I’ve talked to Luna about the theories of MFM and FM balance and one of the key things she said was that in most FM’s scum is way too limited and that a big theme in this fm was that scum had more leway to fakeclaim and more leway for scumhunting.

If you were sheriff the point of investigating someone is to throw them in the roulette and see what kind of a sheriff you are. This makes it a good scum claim for someone to tunnel vision as and be all like "we should lynch them so I can find out what kind of cop I am."

If you are a detective or a lookout then whoop te doo, you confirmed your role… there aren’t any night kills so you can’t exactly catch either of us red handed. I’m not going to claim because you know I targeted someone or no one at all but thanks for sharing, want a cookie?

Day 3:

Yoshimitsu (we were all doing role lists based on mine where I put steve as a hidden any because people are stupid and don't realize hidden NCR can include citizen):

Hidden Enclave (Francine)
Hidden Wastelander (Brady)
Hidden NCR (Gaunt)
Hidden NCR (Akbar)
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Steve (citizen, dead)
Hidden Any (Yoshimitsu)
Hidden Any (Law)

Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 11:38 AM

fuck clicked post without thinking about it. Yoshimitsu continued... (luna could you please merge this post with the previous one). These are all his posts from day 3:

Yoshi: I'd say voting Law, Francine, and Brady

or Francine, Brady and Ackbar would be the best solution judging by our suspicions

-vote Francine

that's my first vote.

Gaunt (me): it is a secret ballot, you pm 2 names to the fm gamemaster and Queen Luna tells us who is in melon roulette at the end of the day. Am I the only one who reads around here?

FM Radio: Based on the number of night actions we received night 0 and number of questions that were explained in the vault info posts... I'd say, you would be correct. (I lol'ed)

Yoshi: I figure might as well say votes out loud here, so that when we get the results back we can find out the possible liars, and then report back to the entire town when we escape the vaults tomorrow

PM Gaunt to Gamemaster: Will the tally for the secret ballot be revealed or just who gets into melon roulette?

Will the people who voted who for the secret ballot be revealed?

PM Gamemaster to Gaunt:

Suggested course of Action: Nightkill ASAP

Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 11:39 AM

Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 12:05 PM

2) Francine the Brotherhood of Vault 5

Day 1 & 2 I thought she was just stupid, bandwagoned me hardcore and tried to look helpful while contributing nothing. Also rereading the dialogue between Yoshimitsu and Francine day 2 convinces me she is mafia.

Day 3:

The following posts combined with the day 2 chat make me strongly believe she is Brotherhood

Francine: How else you would contribute in this kind of situation? Guess I should tell you what happened in Russian Roulette first.

I was shooting first, and the bullet was in number three. When Steve started his turn, he shot himself not once, but twice - and died in the game as result. Had he shot himself once, I would be dead afterwards. DEAD! So I had a change of heart and deciced to reveal my role first.

My true role is Dreamer. Almost as useless as citizen, at least inside the vault. Even outside my role won't be any of use, so if you want to pull me through Melon Roulette, go ahead.

I'm sure that Brady is a either Enclave or Wastelander, but right now I have no idea who is the other scum (was sure that it was Steve). I heard very little from Ackbar and I would like to hear more from him. I will vote Brady for sure, but regarding about my second vote I will have to think.

If you have any questions, don't be afraid to ask.

Gaunt (Me): If you broke out of Vault 5 how would you plan to use your dream ability to help the NCR? I agree everyone vote brady, if he survives we can all reccomend we lynch him to the other vault dwellers.

Francine: I'll use my dream ability as soon as we get out of vault. It will pick up random 7 names (among the players that are alive), that's why it is useless to spend it inside.

Ackbar: Question: Would you be willing to go into melon roulette in attempt to gain another ability?

Gaunt (me): Question: How do we know you aren't just going to pick seven random names out of your ass, or worse seven names you and the enclave want to see killed?

Sorry but Dreamer is like one of the easiest claims to make ever.

Francine: You can't. It is only a matter of trust. If trust is that much difficult to gain, feel free to nominate me into Melon Roulette, but be sure that two scum roles are in it as well. I said everything I wanted to say.

As for Ackbar's question, I guess melon roulette will be my only chance to make myself useful. Scum roles will probably just try to survive in that game. I'm not like that - i'll try to eat more melons than other participants in order to gain the hidden bonus.

Gaunt (me): I've allready said my position but it helps that Francine wants to go into the roulette. To increase trust in you tomorrow if you are alive you should recant your melon roulette experience. Outside of the vault I am going to be paying more attention to my vault-mates than anyone else since I know you a lot better than the random strangers.

Francine: That being said, my initial sense about Steve on Day 1 was right after all. If Hayley would'n died on first night, we would be able to trust him even now. While I already revealed my role, I know nothing about rest of you guys. Gaunt was the guy with most trust, but after Steve's death even I now have my doubts about him.

And another thing - votes are anonymous. What will happen if you suddenly end up in the Melon Roulette, Gaunt?

Gaunt (me): If I end up in the vault I will bitch about it because I don't want to die and then proceed to win and get my one use item

I've already said my thoughts on that lol but I suppose it would be either Yoshi and me or Yoshi and Ackbar.

Francine: Why you put yourself in "random any" instead of Hidden NCR then?

Gaunt (Me): To create suspense, Yoshimitsu did the same thing after all. Hidden NCR is power role I said I am NCR alligned not what role I am. For all you know I'm the third citizen in this vault going for the citizen incarnate award. I won't claim until the time is right

OH AND THERE IS 1/2 CHANCE SHE WON THE MELON ROULETTE!

Suggested course of action: Press for lynch tomorrow as hard as possible

Gaunt

June 30th, 2012, 12:07 PM

Hidden Enclave - Gaunt (Framer)
Hidden Wastelander
Hidden NCR
Hidden NCR - Steve (citizen, dead)
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Law (actress)
Hidden Any
Hidden Any

My Wifom Predictions posted in day 3:

Hidden Enclave - Francine
Hidden Wastelander Brady
Hidden NCR - Yoshimitsu
Hidden NCR -Ackbar
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Steve (citizen, dead)
Hidden Any- Law
Hidden Any - Gaunt

My Actual Predictions:

Hidden Enclave - Gaunt (Framer)
Hidden Wastelander - (Brady)
Hidden NCR - (Yoshimitsu = investigative role)
Hidden NCR - Steve (citizen, dead)
Citizen - Hayley (dead)
Hidden Any - Law (actress)
Hidden Any - Francine (brotherhood)
Hidden Any - Ackbar (dead)

I just keep fucking up