Day 1: Things that go bump in the night

[Forum Mafia GM]

Good morning, rise and shine vault-dwellers, wake up and greet the next day of the rest of your lives!


I have been contacted by our dear new friends at the NCR and they've been complaining that none of y'all have been responding to their hails. In fact, I aint heard a peep out of ya! You know that Intercommy-thing on the wall? Speak near that once in a while, folks!


Anyway, an NCR column is currently on its way.


This is Roxy with Galaxy Radio,makin...*bzzzttzkkktzzkkttz*---



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-p5B1WxOqs)OUZmir035xo (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUZmir035xo)

[Greedo]

1st

[Greedo]

2nd

[Greedo]

3rd

[Greedo]

4th

[Greedo]

5th?

[Greedo]

Anybody who doesn't talk gets lynched.

[Larkin]

Hello, do you feel lonely?

[Leia]

I am lonely without my Han Solo!

Come watch pod racing with me so I can forget about him!

[Larkin]

Is the pod racing contest in africa?

[Tebow]

Luna I hope you know that that music just actually caused damage to my ear

owww

[Tebow]

RIP my ears

[Greedo]

If you guys would be so kind, I'd like to see speculation on what you believe our particular role list might contain, in terms of neutrals, cits, mafias, PRs, etc.

Also, does this day go for 48 or 24 hrs?


RIP my ears

Agreed.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Days and nights in the vault section are 24 hours long. There were a few extra hours today, simply so the day/night cycle could align to a regular schedule.

There is a thread in the main FMXIII section called Day 1, which contains a wolfram alpha link.

[Stan]

Dear FMGM,
-30 points for every day i have to endure this bs.
Sincerely, Stan Smith.

[Chewbacca]

Guess Mozilla gets muted every time I check this site. Oh well.

-vote Greedo

Seems like something a mafia would suggest to get an idea for what people's roles are.

[Larkin]

Guess Mozilla gets muted every time I check this site. Oh well.

-vote Greedo

Seems like something a mafia would suggest to get an idea for what people's roles are.

Could be, but your early voting could also be a mafia trying to get a mislynch.

[Monica]

Oh, Hello Stan, Now we get to share a vault together, Are we going to have to have your point system even with just us 9?

[Stan]

Oh, Hello Stan, Now we get to share a vault together, Are we going to have to have your point system even with just us 9?

Yes. +10 points for caring <3

[Monica]

I can't wait til we get to the second page, that way i can unmute my speakers.

[FM Ferengi]

Th-s ju-t -n: Th- Radi- -tati-n wou-d l-ke to rewa-d Gree-o wit- 5 p--nts f-r mak--g 5 pos-s to try a-d g-t to -he n-xt pag-.

[Stan]

Th-s ju-t -n: Th- Radi- -tati-n wou-d l-ke to rewa-d Gree-o wit- 5 p--nts f-r mak--g 5 pos-s to try a-d g-t to -he n-xt pag-.

I concur with this garbled transmission, DEAR CHRIST

[Monica]

I concur with this garbled transmission, DEAR CHRIST

It's ok, I think i decoded most of it,
This just in, The Radio -tati-n would like to reward Greedo with 5 points for making 5 posts to try and get to the next page.
It seems like the radio is taking your point system to themselves.

[Greedo]

Guess Mozilla gets muted every time I check this site. Oh well.

-vote Greedo

Seems like something a mafia would suggest to get an idea for what people's roles are.

I am disappointed that the one single post thus far directed at getting something done has been met with a -vote. FM GM made it pretty clear that today isn't supposed to be a troll day just because there's been no night actions. We need to get something done and for that we need to get an appreciation of what kind of scum we're up against. Obviously we're facing an orange mafia member, but that's not necessarily the only threat in here so let's get talking about the game.

Anybody who trolls from now on will be met with suspicion. 24 hrs isn't long and we don't need you wasting our time.

@Chewbacca, if you truly intend to vote for me then your vote needs to be in cyan like this -vote

[Monica]

I am disappointed that the one single post thus far directed at getting something done has been met with a -vote. FM GM made it pretty clear that today isn't supposed to be a troll day just because there's been no night actions. We need to get something done and for that we need to get an appreciation of what kind of scum we're up against. Obviously we're facing an orange mafia member, but that's not necessarily the only threat in here so let's get talking about the game.

Anybody who trolls from now on will be met with suspicion. 24 hrs isn't long and we don't need you wasting our time.

@Chewbacca, if you truly intend to vote for me then your vote needs to be in cyan like this -vote
We might only be facing an orange mafia, Because there are 3 random Any's that could be red mafia, Orange mafia, Or ect. Just throwing that in there

[Mkoll]

Dear FMGM,
-30 points for every day i have to endure this bs.
Sincerely, Stan Smith.

For once, I actually agree with what Stan is saying.
+10 to you, Stan.

[Leia]

Leia believes there is a serial killer and a graverobber because of the day 1 RP. Leia would have missed it if the FMGM didn't post all the RP's in one thread. The serial killer is the Lakeside Butcher!

There are probably some neutrals in here with us just based on probability? We can learn more later based on the KPN I think.

[Mkoll]

So, is there any logical way we can deduce who is in here with us? I mean, no night actions last night. Is the next step to pressure people into role claiming?
I mean, think about it - a role claim in the vault isn't going to have the same effect it does in a full game. The real question is how much a role claim in the vaults will make a difference once we all see each other.

[Greedo]

What I'm trying to piece together:

There are 9 people in our vault and 48 players in the game (entirely possible i miscounted).

It tells us there is an orange mafia member in our vault. Yet, if we were to make an assumption that all vaults were roughly the same size, then you'd expect there to be 5 vaults maximum to spread 12 mafia over. That would seem to indicate that each vault should contain at least 2 mafia on average plus a neutral.

Does anybody else find it odd that the role-list would specify that an orange mafia member is present, but not indicate a red one is present. Surely that would be an advantage to a red mafia member, because he would know his opponent was here, whereas the orange member would be unaware. I suppose it's possible FM GM balanced it by having an opposing vault where a red mafia member is in the role list and an orange member is hiding.

However, for this reason, I'm inclined to suspect there are only orange mafia in this vault. Based on the number of scum that have to be accounted for across the vaults, I suspect there are either:
a) 2 orange mafia in here
OR
b) 1 orange mafia and a very powerful neutral

Does this sound like reasonable reasoning to you guys? Please post comments/ suggestions that agree/disagree with me. I honestly do think us talking through this stuff will be beneficial.

[Leia]

Stan can I get points for my RP analysis!

At this point I find Monica the most suspicious for saying we might only face the orange mafia. She is probably the serial killer who won't kill until we leave the vault to pretend like there is only orange mafia in here with us! What do people think of my analysis!

[Greedo]

So, is there any logical way we can deduce who is in here with us? I mean, no night actions last night. Is the next step to pressure people into role claiming?
I mean, think about it - a role claim in the vault isn't going to have the same effect it does in a full game. The real question is how much a role claim in the vaults will make a difference once we all see each other.

I was thinking on this too and how if we were able to quickly and completely annihilate the scum from this vault we could all role-claim afterwards because we'd known there were no mafia left in here with us and we'd all have that secret information going into the big day. However, the problem I can't get past is how would we ever know the vault was clear of scum? Wiping out the mafia would be the most important step because we'd have to prevent them telling their buddies. However, neutrals could be dangerous too if they knew who was a power role (I'm thinking witches, etc).

For this reason unfortunately, I can't see how a mass role-claim will ever be viable in this vault. If anybody else sees a way though, enlighten me. I just can't figure out how to 100% know that our vault is secure.

Even if there were no kills, it doesn't rule out mafia deliberately abstaining, or using non killing powers. I suppose were we to lynch 2 mafia in a row and there was no indication of a powerful neutral in here with us, I'd be feeling pretty safe.

tl:dr: i think the less role-claims the better for now, unless there's a great reason to do it, or unless that person is facing a lynch and we're demanding they claim.

[Monica]

Stan can I get points for my RP analysis!

At this point I find Monica the most suspicious for saying we might only face the orange mafia. She is probably the serial killer who won't kill until we leave the vault to pretend like there is only orange mafia in here with us! What do people think of my analysis!

I just said that it might only be orange, but it could be others, I'm just trying to open the borders and see what we have to deal with here.

[Greedo]

Further reasoning on why mass role-claims aren't useful:

The role list is extremely vague and ambiguous. Any individual player claiming will have pretty much 0 bearing on the validity of another player.

Unlike for example, where the setup was 5 cits, 1 doc, 1 sheriff, 2 mafiosos. In that situation role-claims could be counter-claimed.

What can you counter-claim in this vault?

"I'm the orange mafia!" "No, I'm the orange mafia!!"

Lol.

[King]

ok, what's the plan ?

[Chewbacca]

What I'm trying to piece together:

There are 9 people in our vault and 48 players in the game (entirely possible i miscounted).

It tells us there is an orange mafia member in our vault. Yet, if we were to make an assumption that all vaults were roughly the same size, then you'd expect there to be 5 vaults maximum to spread 12 mafia over. That would seem to indicate that each vault should contain at least 2 mafia on average plus a neutral.

Does anybody else find it odd that the role-list would specify that an orange mafia member is present, but not indicate a red one is present. Surely that would be an advantage to a red mafia member, because he would know his opponent was here, whereas the orange member would be unaware. I suppose it's possible FM GM balanced it by having an opposing vault where a red mafia member is in the role list and an orange member is hiding.

However, for this reason, I'm inclined to suspect there are only orange mafia in this vault. Based on the number of scum that have to be accounted for across the vaults, I suspect there are either:
a) 2 orange mafia in here
OR
b) 1 orange mafia and a very powerful neutral

Does this sound like reasonable reasoning to you guys? Please post comments/ suggestions that agree/disagree with me. I honestly do think us talking through this stuff will be beneficial.

Why would you discuss the possibility of a red mafia in the game? That doesn't help anyone at this junction aside from either trying to hint to the orange mafia that you are the red mafia and you don't want to die tonight, or trying get a rise out of the red mafia so you know who not to target. The fact that you're trying to metagame which mafia side has the advantage tells me that you're probably on one of them.

Then we have your whole "anyone trolling today will be met with suspicion" schtick. You know who the mafia usually vote to lynch? Trolls. It's the easiest target for mafia to attack while appearing because no one's going to step up to defend a troll. A real townie is more likely to attack someone without fear because they know they're town and they don't have to worry about a believable defense later in the game.

With that in mind, and in honor of my missing Han pal, I'm going to shoot first.

-vote Greedo

And Leia, if you're talking about the day 1 RP reference to Friday the 13th, that was just their attempt to make the real rp, Fallout, a surprise. That's why there were references to portals and stuff too before the game actually started.

Not saying there isn't a serial killer, because who knows, we have 0 information.

[Greedo]

Also, as an incentive for nobody to lurk:

How do you guys feel about the idea that anybody who doesn't post adequately today (yet passes GM's anti-lurking system) OR anybody who consistently only trolls today faces severe accusation and pressure tomorrow.

If we can agree early that this will be our policy, there should be no excuse for anybody to violate it.

Lurking and trolling just gives scum a place to hide and in a small vault like this it is extremely counter to our cause.

[Leia]

This FM is fallout themed?

Also you all bring up great ideas but it's almost 1am here so I need to sleep. I'll be back in the morning to contribute more later. Goodnight everybody!

[Monica]

This FM is fallout themed?

Also you all bring up great ideas but it's almost 1am here so I need to sleep. I'll be back in the morning to contribute more later. Goodnight everybody!

You couldn't tell by the FM's picture it was fallout themed?

[Forum Mafia GM]

As much as I enjoy the ear rape that I started, rest assured there will not be vuvuzelas on page 2.

[Monica]

As much as I enjoy the ear rape that I started, rest assured there will not be vuvuzelas on page 2.

I'm assuming your going to put some up on page 3 then aren't you?

[Chewbacca]

Also, as an incentive for nobody to lurk:

How do you guys feel about the idea that anybody who doesn't post adequately today (yet passes GM's anti-lurking system) OR anybody who consistently only trolls today faces severe accusation and pressure tomorrow.

If we can agree early that this will be our policy, there should be no excuse for anybody to violate it.

Lurking and trolling just gives scum a place to hide and in a small vault like this it is extremely counter to our cause.

Attacking lurkers and trolls just gives scum a place to hide.

[Greedo]

Attacking lurkers and trolls just gives scum a place to hide.

That's 2 posts so far that seem as though you're trying to needlessly provoke.

I'll forget about that for now though and simply respond to your sentence.

I think it's pretty clear to everybody that a 0 tolerance policy on lurking/trolling is aimed at preventing lurking and trolling in the first place. I am not sure why any townie would ever be in favor of creating an environment that lets them flourish because it makes our job of scumhunting practically impossible.

All I'm asking for is some agreement here.

[Greedo]

What I'm trying to piece together:

There are 9 people in our vault and 48 players in the game (entirely possible i miscounted).

It tells us there is an orange mafia member in our vault. Yet, if we were to make an assumption that all vaults were roughly the same size, then you'd expect there to be 5 vaults maximum to spread 12 mafia over. That would seem to indicate that each vault should contain at least 2 mafia on average plus a neutral.

Does anybody else find it odd that the role-list would specify that an orange mafia member is present, but not indicate a red one is present. Surely that would be an advantage to a red mafia member, because he would know his opponent was here, whereas the orange member would be unaware. I suppose it's possible FM GM balanced it by having an opposing vault where a red mafia member is in the role list and an orange member is hiding.

However, for this reason, I'm inclined to suspect there are only orange mafia in this vault. Based on the number of scum that have to be accounted for across the vaults, I suspect there are either:
a) 2 orange mafia in here
OR
b) 1 orange mafia and a very powerful neutral

Does this sound like reasonable reasoning to you guys? Please post comments/ suggestions that agree/disagree with me. I honestly do think us talking through this stuff will be beneficial.

Because I'm very keen to see people posting, I humbly request that if you're reading and can't think of anything much to say, could you post a response to my above quote. It doesn't have to be in depth, but it would be nice to hear a thought or two.

[Chewbacca]

I'm not going to guess at the composition of roles as it serves nothing while giving the scum everything, like proclaiming in the day the possibility of a red mafia member. Who would have a reason to do that if they were town? If the orange mafia had not realized the possibility he could've accidentally killed him tonight. Instead, you've put the forth the possibility and now the orange mafia will be looking for clues as to who not to shoot tonight so that he can keep the KPN up.

Other than that you've contributed nothing other than the usual try-hard mafia stuff to put yourself in a position as town leader. The only thing I can conclude right now is that you're either a citizen or a mafia. And that's why my vote is to lynch you.

As to the lurker/troll question, their time will come when it needs to, but I find that mafia in big games like this are more likely to be the talkers than the lurkers. Especially when you're separated for the first few days and don't have buddies to protect you from a lynch.

Instituting a strict no lurker/no troll policy, on the other hand, greatly benefits the talking scum since it gives them an outlet to focus their energies while avoiding a lynch because the town's all caught up in killing the people they deem not active enough. I am not sure why any townie would ever be in favor of creating an environment that lets them flourish because it makes our job of scumhunting practically impossible.

[Stan]

Busy day for me.
+15 points to Greedo for the sheer amount of speculation and analysis
+10 points to Chewbacca for trying to get something done.
-5 points to king for being absolutely useless thus far
FMGM gets nothing because I fear they will continue the auditory torture.

The problem in short:
Night 0 had no actions, so any informatory roles have nothing to add.
Due to the role list for our particular vault (we have no way of knowing how similiar or disimiliar our vault is from the others) any role claims at this point would not be terribly useful.

In other words suspicions today are based on personal motives or outright guesses. We can either randomly execute someone today, or risk allowing everyone to live into the night and await the results for tomorrow.

There are 5 confirmed town, 1 confirmed orange mafia, and 3 Hidden Random Anys. That puts the odds at worst at 1/9 we hit a mafia member, at best (assuming the gm would not pack out a vault with mafia of the same color) 4/9 if there's 2 of each color which is extremely unlikely. At best the chances of hitting a town member are 5/9, and 1/9 of hitting the confirmed sheriff.

Suspicious activity:
Greedo seemed to be making a ploy to lure power roles into claiming early on.
Chewbacca jumped on voting greedo rather quickly.
Monica made only a vague pass at stating anything useful and hasn't really contributed since.
Leia is very into the RP, for what reason I cannot begin to speculate.
King has made 1 post, which was less than 6 words in length.

Not necessarily scummy, but suspicious in my view.


As to speculating on our role lists composition I've noticed a discrepancy between ours and the main list.

Is the Sheriff in our vault's role list necessarily a Sane Sheriff or could they be any of the sheriffs?

[Chewbacca]

o
Is the Sheriff in our vault's role list necessarily a Sane Sheriff or could they be any of the sheriffs?

Now that's something actually useful.

[Stan]

Now that's something actually useful.

I ask because in the main role list it specifically states "Sane Sheriff" but in ours it just says "Sheriff"

[Greedo]

Thanks Stan that was great.

Moar posts please @ everybody.

[Leia]

Morning everyone!
I may be mistaken, but I believe the sheriff in our vault might be any of the various sheriff alignments, or else I think the FMGM would have specified.

My thoughts about this game:
The vault acts like the Dreamer's role, telling us that there is for sure one orange mafia among the nine of us. I doubt that there is a dreamer in this setup because the vaults already give us much of the information we would get from the dreamer in the first place.

I also thought of a question about one of the role cards: Question: Does the Gypsy Lady's role reveal occur on the in-vault role list, or for the overall role list? If the Gypsy Lady guesses a role in another vault, can the role be revealed in another vault, and not necessarily in the vault the Gypsy Lady is in?

I think there is going to be too high a KPN in this vault if there is red mafia and orange mafia and a killing neutral hidden in the role list, so there probably isn't all three. Or possibly there is a red mafia role that would rather perform its specific night action instead of kill. We will have more information about this tomorrow!

For now, I will FOS Mkoll who posted a lot on the troll day 0, but now is very quiet and has contributed very little. Seems to me like he is scum trying to stay inconspicuous. I would like him, King and Tebow to contribute more. -vote Mkoll as a pressure vote. I am interested to see what he has to say in response to:

1. Why haven't you posted nearly as much today as you have yesterday?
2. What non-town roles would you speculate are present in this vault?
3. Should we lynch you today for acting suspicious?

[Leia]

If we semi-random lynch someone today and tomorrow, then I think that helps us since we can narrow down the list of people that includes the orange mafia. How would people feel about this? I think that a lynch gives us more information than no lynch.

Plan:
People claim if a. their role gives easily verifiable night feedback such as a role block, etc. or b. if their role does not give feedback. That way, a mafia consort would be forced to use their night action to role block instead of kill, thus helping the town avoid a kill if the consort wishes to remain "hidden".

We gather a list of the roles with no feedback and choose one of them to random lynch today. Tonight, the players with role feedbacks must use their actions and we see the corresponding claims tomorrow morning. Then, if the sheriff has found a guilty person, we can use that or any other gathered information to lynch. In the absence of other information, we can lynch another person whose role gives no feedback messages.

I think this gives us the most useful information out of any plan I could think of. What do other people think?

[Leia]

Going to work soon.
I'll be able to post again after I come home.
I hope to see many replies to my idea!

[Mkoll]

1. Why haven't you posted nearly as much today as you have yesterday?
2. What non-town roles would you speculate are present in this vault?
3. Should we lynch you today for acting suspicious?

1. I haven't posted as much today as yesterday because I've been watching my nephew because my sister just went to jail
2. I'm a pessimist - having said that, I would assume the 1 orange mafia and at the very least 1 non-town killing role and 1 other neutral bringing the total composition to 6town 3 non-town. This is my idea of what would make a very interesting couple nights in the vault & Luna seems to be all about making things interesting so far.
3. Nothing I've done has been suspicious really, and asking me whether or not you should lynch me is ridiculous. What do you want me to say? lol. I personally don't like the odds of hitting town vs hitting non-town so as of right this second I don't think anyone should be lynched. However, if there is some evidence that points one way or the other in my eyes I will vote

What about you, Ms. Lurker? You've got 10 posts total and you've already learned enough to want to be casting suspicion on to other people.
1. Based on your posting pattern today (15 hours ago, 8 hours ago, 8 hours ago, 43 minutes ago 27 hours ago) you've been pretty lurky, especially considering the fact that you seem to have had the time to go through an analyze everything. Why is this?
2. You justify your FoS by saying it's because I posted a ton yesterday and not much today so that makes me suspicious. Why are you less suspicious because you have 7 total posts today? Pot calling the kettle black if you ask me.

Now, you're all about random lynching without any real justification.
Not only do you want a random lynch, but you want a soft role claim after FoSing me for doing something that you've done.
Tsk tsk tsk, are you new at this or something?

[Mkoll]

& even if we do this supposed soft role claim, how are we going to determine anything based on night actions with feedback?
Mafia in this game DO have potential to give normal feedback at night (drug dealer). How would we be able to be certain that any feedback given to anyone by anyone would be legit at all & not a drug effect? If we're looking for a roleblock to softly "prove someone's role" how do we know it's not consort?

[Leia]

& even if we do this supposed soft role claim, how are we going to determine anything based on night actions with feedback?
Mafia in this game DO have potential to give normal feedback at night (drug dealer). How would we be able to be certain that any feedback given to anyone by anyone would be legit at all & not a drug effect? If we're looking for a roleblock to softly "prove someone's role" how do we know it's not consort?

The soft role claim acknowledges that some mafia roles DO have the potential to give normal feedback messages. In fact, it plays off of this, fact, so that a mafia member in this vault will be forced to use a non-killing night action in order to "claim" their town-sided role counterpart. This serves two purposes - to prevent mafia from killing and forcing them to use their action that gives feedback, and it lets us lock in potential mafia roles later down the line. i.e. if we happen to have two "escorts" in this vault, it would be extremely likely that one of them was actually a consort or a drug dealer. This gives us a lot more information than herp-derping around doing nothing.

Killing neutrals or other mafia members such as a mafioso will not have any actions they can perform that give feedback, so they will be candidates for the "random" lynch. In my opinion, even if we mistakenly lynch a sheriff that doesn't know his alignment, the chances for lynching killing scum is increased with my plan. Doesn't this make sense? We get people out of the way such as jailors, architects, bus drivers, escorts, etc with easily provable roles based on feedback and then random lynch based on whoever remains.

The way I am proposing, if you have a role that gives feedback, claim it in this thread before night begins. Tomorrow, if you were role blocked, etc. claim "given feedback" - do not differentiate whether or not you were role blocked, jailed, etc. If the numbers of "given feedback" claims match the numbers of "givers of feedback" claims, then we should consider those who claimed feedback givers "cleared" from being lynch targets. We would expect that the numbers of feedback claims should stay the same, forcing a drug dealer or consort to once again forefit their night action in order to provide a feedback message and avoid being lynched. If the number of feedback claims we expect do not match up with the numbers that actually come through, the feedback givers might then be asked to claim which messages they gave out to which players. The people who recieved feedback can confirm, and we can weed out people who falsely claimed they have roles that give out feedback.

imo, killing neutrals or a mafioso is screwed because he has no feedback messages to pretend to give out. He could pretend to give feedback to a mafia buddy in this vault, but again, this gives us important information that show connections between players.


In response to your FOS on me for being a "lurker", I am simply being consistent about my playstyle. I cannot post a lot during certain times of the day due to my schedule. (posting at work is generally frowned upon.) You, on the other hand, were very present on Day 0, spamming left and right. I was simply pointing out that I found it odd that you were lurking so much compared to Day 0 when you posted a significant amount. I found that this might mean you posted a lot on Day 0 in order to falsely inflate your post count so that you could lurk on later days without facing as severe repercussions as another lurky player such as King. Why do you FOS me, and not King? By your logic, King is even more "lurky" than I am. Your argument against me has no weight since I am not FOS'ing you for lurking today, I am FOS'ing your posting pattern of spam posting Day 0 and then switching to massive lurk today (until I called you out on it).

[Larkin]

If we semi-random lynch someone today and tomorrow, then I think that helps us since we can narrow down the list of people that includes the orange mafia. How would people feel about this? I think that a lynch gives us more information than no lynch.

Plan:
People claim if a. their role gives easily verifiable night feedback such as a role block, etc. or b. if their role does not give feedback. That way, a mafia consort would be forced to use their night action to role block instead of kill, thus helping the town avoid a kill if the consort wishes to remain "hidden".

We gather a list of the roles with no feedback and choose one of them to random lynch today. Tonight, the players with role feedbacks must use their actions and we see the corresponding claims tomorrow morning. Then, if the sheriff has found a guilty person, we can use that or any other gathered information to lynch. In the absence of other information, we can lynch another person whose role gives no feedback messages.

I think this gives us the most useful information out of any plan I could think of. What do other people think?

Why do you assume the sheriff here is sane?

Why do you assume there is a consort in here?

I think your plan has holes, a random lynch is more likely to end up worse for town.

What stops the mafia from claiming they get no feedback and just killing someone?

[Leia]

I do not assume the sheriff here is sane. If you read my earlier post, I assumed we should NOT assume the sheriff in this vault is sane just because the revealed sheriff on the large role list is sane.

I do not assume there is a consort in here, I was listing it as one of many possible mafia roles that would want to use their regular night action to WIFOM the townsided counterpart in order to give a feedback message. This mafia member would not be able to kill if they used their regular night action such as giving a role block.

I acknowledge that this plan has some holes, one being that a mayor cannot reveal himself until outside of the vault, and thus he does have a feedback message that he cannot yet reveal to clear himself. However, I believe that this plan can expose a lot of connections and information that we would otherwise not gain. A random lynch of people who do not give feedback is more likely to eliminate a killing neutral or a mafioso simply because it takes away town members such as a jailor or an architect who give feedback messages out of the pool of people who we are choosing a lynch target from.

I don't fully understand your last question, but if a mafia claims they did not recieve feedback when they did, if we lynch the person who said they gave the mafia member feedback, it will immediately be obvious that the person lied, therefore casting said mafia member under heightened suspicion.

[Leia]

Anybody who does not like my plan, please propose an alternative. It was after much thought that I devised this plan to provide us with the most useful information possible within the constraints of this vault. This is not to say that it would be the best plan, this is just the best I could think up. If there is a better plan, please share it.

[Chewbacca]

Anybody who does not like my plan, please propose an alternative. It was after much thought that I devised this plan to provide us with the most useful information possible within the constraints of this vault. This is not to say that it would be the best plan, this is just the best I could think up. If there is a better plan, please share it.

I agree that a lynch would be preferable to a no-lynch, but I have my heart set on Greedo.

In regards to your plan, I don't really see the point of it. The whole point of everyone not claiming is to make the mafia unsure of who to kill. What you're suggesting is just an inferior version of a mass claim. I'm against a mass claim though for a couple reasons, 1) it's boring and defeats the purpose of the game, and 2) with the amount of hidden roles it won't do much, we'll just be sitting here with more cit claims than there actually are. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few of the real town power roles claimed citizen as well, so it's not like it'll accomplish much at this point.

But yeah, if we're going to kill anybody, I say it be Greedo.

[Larkin]

Sorry I'm not good at coming up with plans, I usually get orders from my sergeant Mkoll and then criticise them until they make sense.

I admit I didn't read the long post you posted right before mine, and it answers most of my questions.

Your plan could give us valuable info, I'm just not a fan of the random voting. Town power roles may want to hide as citizens and lynching them would kind of suck. That's all.

[Monica]

I agree that a lynch would be preferable to a no-lynch, but I have my heart set on Greedo.

In regards to your plan, I don't really see the point of it. The whole point of everyone not claiming is to make the mafia unsure of who to kill. What you're suggesting is just an inferior version of a mass claim. I'm against a mass claim though for a couple reasons, 1) it's boring and defeats the purpose of the game, and 2) with the amount of hidden roles it won't do much, we'll just be sitting here with more cit claims than there actually are. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few of the real town power roles claimed citizen as well, so it's not like it'll accomplish much at this point.

But yeah, if we're going to kill anybody, I say it be Greedo.
You seem extremely bent on wanting to lynch Greedo, Either there is something I'm missing, Or your an Executioner wanting to vote Greedo? But i could be missing something i guess.

[Monica]

Why do you assume the sheriff here is sane?

Why do you assume there is a consort in here?

I think your plan has holes, a random lynch is more likely to end up worse for town.

What stops the mafia from claiming they get no feedback and just killing someone?
I see a few holes in the plan also, But we don't have to random lynch, We could always pressure people into saying their roles and use that for the big meet later once we hit day 4.

[Leia]

I agree that a lynch would be preferable to a no-lynch, but I have my heart set on Greedo.

In regards to your plan, I don't really see the point of it. The whole point of everyone not claiming is to make the mafia unsure of who to kill. What you're suggesting is just an inferior version of a mass claim. I'm against a mass claim though for a couple reasons, 1) it's boring and defeats the purpose of the game, and 2) with the amount of hidden roles it won't do much, we'll just be sitting here with more cit claims than there actually are. And I wouldn't be surprised if at least a few of the real town power roles claimed citizen as well, so it's not like it'll accomplish much at this point.

But yeah, if we're going to kill anybody, I say it be Greedo.

My plan would encourage mafia members who can fake town-sided role counterparts to fake town-sided role counterparts and bypass night kills.

You want to random lynch Greedo. If he claims to have a role, proveable via feedback message results, then wouldn't we naturally want to lynch someone else that does not have a role softly proveable via feedback messages? Yes, a consort or a drug dealer for example can fake being an escort, but this plan forces those types of roles to use their actions instead of killing while they are inside the vault. Basically if Greedo claims "hey I'm jailor, I can prove it tonight" then wouldn't we naturally move to the next lynch target?

The plan I proposed is a means of hiding exact roles from the mafia instead of forcing specific people put on the spot to claim. It also helps expedite our focus for day lynches by completely eliminating people with "proveable" roles from our pool of possible lynches.

If people are generally not on board with the plan (it seems they are not), then we do not have to go through with it. I was trying to offer an alternative to a purely random lynch and offer some direction and organization with which we could proceed.

I would like to hear at least a couple more opinions on the plan before we fully decide to scrap it. If they are also negative opinions, I pass the burden of coming up with our collective vault plan onto the rest of you.

[Larkin]

If all else fails, we could accept our fate and just party until the world ends. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzU9OrZlKb8

[Forum Mafia GM]

Is the Sheriff in our vault's role list necessarily a Sane Sheriff or could they be any of the sheriffs?
He can be any Sheriff variant, the role list just confirms that someone received the Sheriff role card in this vault :)

Does the Gypsy Lady's role reveal occur on the in-vault role list, or for the overall role list? If the Gypsy Lady guesses a role in another vault, can the role be revealed in another vault, and not necessarily in the vault the Gypsy Lady is in?
The Gypsy Lady's current night actions are restricted to the vault - if she can guess a role which is in the vault, it will appear in the overall roles list. If a role is in another vault but not in this one and she guesses it, her night action will be unsuccessful.

[Greedo]

Going to ignore Chewbacca for now lest I die of laughter.

@Leia, your plan certainly isn't without merit and I for one can appreciate that you've put a lot of thought into it. What I do like about it is it forces the scum to lie, or risk exposure and wherever we can force them to tell a lie that's a great thing because if we can expose the lie we can expose them. So that's definitely a +

I suppose the most obvious negatives come from the fact that we are in turn handing over a ton of information to the scum, the mafia of which can then pass straight on to their compatriots. If we do go with the plan, we're essentially splitting ourselves into 1) a group of citizens + PRs and 2) a group of pure PRs. This makes me quite reluctant because a common mafia philosophy is simply that it's good to hit any PR, no matter what type they are. Unfortunately, this could pose huge dangers to the group of pure PRs (the group that says they give feedback) for the rest of the game.

The second negative is that unfortunately there's no way to guarantee every townie will be compliant to this sort of a plan. It's entirely possible that a bus driver/escort/ gunsmith kind of role may be entirely unwilling to lump themselves in the confirmed PR group and instead jump themselves into the no feedback group. This would make interpreting things a nightmare for us, and also put the PRs who did tell the truth in even more danger because there'll be an even smaller group of them.

Even if we don't end up putting a plan into action I really appreciate people taking the time and effort to come up with an idea that may be useful so thanks Leia.

Tebow and King are still yet to post a single line here.

[Leia]

Just got off work so I should be able to post more now and until the end of day when I go to sleep.

I guess I just feel like when we push for a lynch, a PR will end up revealing to avoid getting lynched. It seems silly and inefficient for us to go through the whole FOS to lynch train process on one candidate only to have them reveal as a confirmable PR role, because that exposes them just as much. In any case, I have some other ideas, too, that I believe can help us either immediately or in the long run.




Tonight, make sure to update your last will with some silly phrase so a sleuth/dirty sleuth will be able to role claim by quoting your last will if they are getting lynched tomorrow.

In case of a disguiser outside the vault, I believe we should come up with groupwide disguiser checks to perform outside of the vault if there is a cleaned corpse presented at the beginning of day. If there is only orange mafia in this vault, then at least it would be a valid disguiser check against red mafia. If red and orange mafia are in this vault, that would be other good information to learn later if someone passes the disguiser check yet we suspect them of being disguised as. We should discuss this on day 2 because there is the possibility of lynching mafia tomorrow or having mafia die at night.

I'm sure these ideas can be met with more enthusiasm. I am disappointed that more people do not want a lynch, because it is the town's big way of obtaining information.

[Leia]

Is anyone else disturbed by Mkoll's behavior? He made many posts yesterday to spam to increase his post count so he can contribute minimally today and then accuse others of lurking when he has contributed much less on Day 1. In my opinion, if we random lynch anybody, we should lynch Mkoll both for his scummy posting patterns and more importantly his using his post count as leverage with his accusation against me. I find his reasoning for finding me suspicious very suspicious.

Let's analyze this again, for those of you who haven't been keeping up to date. I'm really disappointed that more people didn't post while I was at work. I fully expected everyone to come online and participate in the discussion of my proposal so we could have more discussion in the evening until day ends.


3. Nothing I've done has been suspicious really, and asking me whether or not you should lynch me is ridiculous. What do you want me to say? lol. I personally don't like the odds of hitting town vs hitting non-town so as of right this second I don't think anyone should be lynched. However, if there is some evidence that points one way or the other in my eyes I will vote

Mkoll's counter to me saying he is suspicious for mass spam posting on Day 0 and lurking today in a perceived attempt to hide as scum is that "Nothing I've done has been suspicious really". Ok. You counter my FOS on your posting habits with a non-responsive answer. That does nothing to convince me of your innocence. Either scum or a person terrible at argumentation.

He "doesn't like the odds of hitting town vs. non town" which is understandable. I agree with this statement but would add that in a completely random lynch yes completely. However in a scumhunted lynch, even with only Day 0 and Day 1 chat information to go off of, the odds of hitting non town is presumably increased based on suspicious behavior that town has to go off of. What type of behavior is more suspicious than a player who spam posts on Day 0 and then flips 180 degrees and posts minimally on Day 1 until FOS'ed and prodded.


What about you, Ms. Lurker? You've got 10 posts total and you've already learned enough to want to be casting suspicion on to other people.
1. Based on your posting pattern today (15 hours ago, 8 hours ago, 8 hours ago, 43 minutes ago 27 hours ago) you've been pretty lurky, especially considering the fact that you seem to have had the time to go through an analyze everything. Why is this?

He a. asserts that I have been lurky, when in fact, his own post count and content for today has not been much better. If anything, I take his accusation of myself as a lurker as a self accusation of lurking via transitive property. He asks why I have been lurking. I had not much to say until I thought up my plan and found a scummy target to FOS.


2. You justify your FoS by saying it's because I posted a ton yesterday and not much today so that makes me suspicious. Why are you less suspicious because you have 7 total posts today? Pot calling the kettle black if you ask me.

How is this situation the pot calling the kettle black? Far from it. Let me break it down for you. Mkoll spam posts to get his post count into the high/mid 20's on Day 0. Mkoll posts a total of 4 posts today. Leia posts around 5 posts yesterday, and increases participation today since we have been given our roles and it is no longer troll day. Mkoll describing this situation as "the pot calling the kettle black" is highly misinformed and slanderous. I called him out not simply for his lurking today, but his combined lurking mixed with his extremely high post count on Day 0. Honestly, Stan also falls into this category, but he has been more active than Mkoll, so I ignored Stan for now to focus on pressuring Mkoll. If Mkoll does not understand the source of my FOS, we should dispose of him for having a scummy behavior, being terrible at responding to arguments, and doing little to defend himself.


1. I haven't posted as much today as yesterday because I've been watching my nephew because my sister just went to jail

Furthermore, he tries to appeal to emotion as to why he could not post more by sharing a story of his sister going to jail. He tries to leverage our emotions to let him get away with his scummy posting behaviour.

[Mkoll]

Is anyone else disturbed by Mkoll's behavior? He made many posts yesterday to spam to increase his post count so he can contribute minimally today and then accuse others of lurking when he has contributed much less on Day 1. In my opinion, if we random lynch anybody, we should lynch Mkoll both for his scummy posting patterns and more importantly his using his post count as leverage with his accusation against me. I find his reasoning for finding me suspicious very suspicious.

Let's analyze this again, for those of you who haven't been keeping up to date. I'm really disappointed that more people didn't post while I was at work. I fully expected everyone to come online and participate in the discussion of my proposal so we could have more discussion in the evening until day ends.



Mkoll's counter to me saying he is suspicious for mass spam posting on Day 0 and lurking today in a perceived attempt to hide as scum is that "Nothing I've done has been suspicious really". Ok. You counter my FOS on your posting habits with a non-responsive answer. That does nothing to convince me of your innocence. Either scum or a person terrible at argumentation.

He "doesn't like the odds of hitting town vs. non town" which is understandable. I agree with this statement but would add that in a completely random lynch yes completely. However in a scumhunted lynch, even with only Day 0 and Day 1 chat information to go off of, the odds of hitting non town is presumably increased based on suspicious behavior that town has to go off of. What type of behavior is more suspicious than a player who spam posts on Day 0 and then flips 180 degrees and posts minimally on Day 1 until FOS'ed and prodded.



He a. asserts that I have been lurky, when in fact, his own post count and content for today has not been much better. If anything, I take his accusation of myself as a lurker as a self accusation of lurking via transitive property. He asks why I have been lurking. I had not much to say until I thought up my plan and found a scummy target to FOS.



How is this situation the pot calling the kettle black? Far from it. Let me break it down for you. Mkoll spam posts to get his post count into the high/mid 20's on Day 0. Mkoll posts a total of 4 posts today. Leia posts around 5 posts yesterday, and increases participation today since we have been given our roles and it is no longer troll day. Mkoll describing this situation as "the pot calling the kettle black" is highly misinformed and slanderous. I called him out not simply for his lurking today, but his combined lurking mixed with his extremely high post count on Day 0. Honestly, Stan also falls into this category, but he has been more active than Mkoll, so I ignored Stan for now to focus on pressuring Mkoll. If Mkoll does not understand the source of my FOS, we should dispose of him for having a scummy behavior, being terrible at responding to arguments, and doing little to defend himself.



Furthermore, he tries to appeal to emotion as to why he could not post more by sharing a story of his sister going to jail. He tries to leverage our emotions to let him get away with his scummy posting behaviour.

I explained myself already.
Get off my nuts pls.
Kthx.

[Mkoll]

BTW you never accused me of trying "hide the fact that I'm scum." Naturally, I wouldn't have been able to refute it if you hadn't accused me of it in the first place. I gave you a valid explanation of the variation in post count between yesterday and today, if you can't accept that then so be it.

[FM Ferengi]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LKHpM1UeDA)7LKHpM1UeDA (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LKHpM1UeDA)

[Mkoll]

KILLMEPLS

LOL JESUS CHRIST

[Mkoll]

Going for page 5

[Mkoll]

PAGE 55555555555

[Mkoll]

Fuck it.

[Leia]

It's already 19:45. We have until 1:00 to make a lynch. Leia is doubtful we will accomplish anything further today even though we still have 5 more hours.

[Stan]

[color=cyan]-vote FM Radio[/cyan]

[Stan]

-vote FM Radio


Wow I failed lol -5 points to me.....

[Tebow]

What is lurk?
I am not larkin
not larkin
no more

Hallo town. I have successfully put my account to 5 posts per page 8), and now that my ears are not being bombarded by vuvuzelas, I will happily join in the discussion.
I agree with leia's plan. The soft role claims will help town gather information about the other players in the vault. These role claims will NOT help the mafia because the high majority of people (and possibly every single person) either is scum with an action or a town PR. The role list of the vault already confirms pretty much every one of us as a PR. The mafia already have AT THE VERY LEAST a 5/8 chance to hit a town PR. If one of the random anys is an orange mafia, they have at least a 5/7 chance.

Odds are, PRs will die.

I like the idea of making scum claim if they have feedback because it gives us information on people in the game. Scum will be held accountable for their night actions, and it will prevent them from doing the night actions that they might want because they will be forced to make night actions that appear town.

However, I disagree that people should claim when they received feedback. We should use these claims to confirm people's roles, after they have claimed themselves. Simply looking at the number of feedback messages received is not really very helpful because there are roles that will cause more or less messages to occur. Bus drivers, kidnappers, and architects will inflate the feedback number, a jailor could cause people to not receive feedback even if they were targeted. A person could be killed the same night they were targeted by a feedback-giving role. Roles such as the whore do not have a steady feedback count at all. Medical students will not know they give feedback and mess up the feedback number. Gunsmiths may choose not to give out guns. Feedback giving roles can be roleblocked by others.

tl;dr feedback messages should be used to confirm peoples role after the people who give feedback messages claim. We may want to do a vault mass claim day 3, especially if we lynch a mafia before then.

About the pressure for tomorrow: If we pressure one of the people who claimed to not give feedback, we will have a much higher success rate in lynching scum.
With sheer numbers alone, town PRs are more likely to give feedback than mafia PRs:
A LIST OF ROLES THAT GIVE FEEDBACK:

Possible Mafia Roles: Godfather, Consigliere, Mafioso, Framer, Consort, Blackmailer, Janitor, Disguiser, Interceptor, Grave Robber, Kidnapper, Lawyer, Ventriloquist, Fabricator, Actress, Drug Dealer, Dirty Sleuth
3 out of 17 roles of the mafia give claimable feedback (blackmailer does not count because that is not feedback that town will give - the blackmailer would not be wise to claim that he gives feedback.) 14 of 17 do not. It is therefore much more likely that the mafia will be in the group of people that do not have a feedback message.

Possible Hidden Town Roles: Citizen, Sheriff, Mayor, Detective, Lookout, Bus Driver, Doctor, Escort, Coroner, Journalist, Jailor, Veteran, Vigilante, Whore, Armoursmith, Gunsmith, Mortician, Naive/Paranoid/Insane Sheriff, Spy, Watchman, Sex Toy Manufacturer, Enchantress, Hitman, Bodyguard, Architect, Saboteur, Gypsy Lady, Dreamer, Medical Student, Traumatised Surgeon, Sleuth, Mason Assassin, Mason Enforcer
Out of the 33 town roles, 13 give feedback. It is more likely for a feedback giving role to be town than mafia.

Possible Hidden Neutral Roles: Jester, Executioner, Student, Amnesiac, Ghost, Survivor, Ninja, Witch, Corrupt Journalist, Soul Thief, Arms Dealer, Cult Leader, Chairman, Serial Killer, Arsonist, Devourer, Spree Killer, Ravager
Out of the 17 neutral roles, 3 can claim to give feedback - again, only a small minority of the roles will be in the group of people that claim to give feedback.

When pressured, some of the town roles that do not give feedback can clear themselves, and some give us information about others in the vault:
Possible Hidden Town Roles: Citizen, Sheriff, Mayor, Detective, Lookout, Doctor, Coroner, Veteran, Vigilante, Mortician, Naive/Paranoid/Insane Sheriff, Spy, Watchman, Bodyguard, Saboteur, Gypsy Lady, Dreamer, Medical Student, Traumatised Surgeon, Sleuth
8 of the 20 town roles that can be pressured can possibly confirm their roles. It is therefore very unlikely that we will mislynch a town role if we follow leia's plan, especially with the information gotten by PRs in the night.

[Tebow]

I do not believe we will get a list of these roles to claim today however. The pressuring will most likely have to start tomorrow, when we have a night's worth of actions to give us more information.

[Chewbacca]

Hey guys, before day ends, what do you say we kill Greedo?

[Mkoll]

Hey guys, before day ends, what do you say we kill Greedo?

I think you're exec WIFOMing non exec.
Just a feeling.

[Greedo]

[SIZE=1][COLOR="#F0F8FF"]
Hallo town. I have successfully put my account to 5 posts per page 8), and now that my ears are not being bombarded by vuvuzelas, I will happily join in the discussion.
I agree with leia's plan. The soft role claims will help town gather information about the other players in the vault. These role claims will NOT help the mafia because the high majority of people (and possibly every single person) either is scum with an action or a town PR. The role list of the vault already confirms pretty much every one of us as a PR. The mafia already have AT THE VERY LEAST a 5/8 chance to hit a town PR. If one of the random anys is an orange mafia, they have at least a 5/7 chance.

FM GM has assured me that Hidden NCR may include Citizen, which I think considerably distort these odds you've calculated. Something to bear in mind.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Well folk--bsstt*-- good night! Hop**zzrtztztttz**

See you tomorrow!