Night 6

[Robb]

Hallo.

This is awesome. I'm basically cleared right now XD.

Oberyn, are you planning on actually going through with attacking Sandor? Or is it just a ploy to get another mislynch?

[Robb]

Also, I am questioning why Melisandre claimed roleblocked Night 3.

She is potentially Richard the Flayer, but she may have also been jailed. What to do.

I basically need to roleblock from here on out, as I am claimed Town escort now.

[Tywin]

Did anything happen to anyone last night?

[Robb]

All quiet on the Western Front.

Where's Oberyn.

[Oberyn]

Nothing happened to me last night.
So, here is what we know:

1- Melisandre confirms Robbs claims and lies to cover for his day 3. This does not add up in any way that is good for us. Either way, Melisandre KNOWS that you lied about your claim and most likely knows that you are orange mafia.

If Melisandre was the GF, why would Rodrik not claim to have blocked her instead of me? That would leave her claim of being roleblocked n1 doubtful. Also noting that Rodrik was not culted.

2- One of the non voters on the jester lynch is the other non GF red mafia.

3- How much trust do I put in both of you... since once I use the -remove command, it is permanent and cannot be undone.

I want both of you to convince me that you are not culted. Once I'm satisfied, then I'll tell you what I plan on doing tonight.

[Tywin]

I have this to say.

Someone visited Robb last night, and I trapped them. They survived, however, which leads me to believe that either they had armor, or Robb is now culted.

[Tywin]

It's possible someone had armor and was randomed onto him, but Joffrey claims that he hit a cit last night. It couldn't be Rodrik either, Robb wouldn't have lied about an attempted role blocking. Armor, same thing. Who else is alive? I dunno really at this point.

[Tywin]

It's also possible that BOTH Robb and Melisandre are in the cult, which is why they are covering for each other.

[Oberyn]

I shall return later. Robb, I expect you to explain yourself.

[Tywin]

Robb definitely was looking at this thread. The users reading was at 3. Except he didn't respond. I wonder why?

The thought that he is cult is getting stronger and stronger in my mind. He's probably chatting in cult chat at this point, figuring how to respond. In any case, if the cult has also infiltrated the Nosferatu the game is over.

[Robb]

Oh hai, I was playing HoN. I do that a lot.

I received no PMs last night.


If a Godfather was affected by a jester lynch, would he be directed to kill a random target or would his visitation have no effect?


Latter.

This is what I presume happened to me.
I did not get any PM, as the visitation had no effect, and the GF's passive armor made Tywin not kill him.

Alternatively, it could have been a doctor using armor.

The armor claim leads me to believe that Lord Varys is the Godfather or Doctor.

[Tywin]

... The GF cannot be sent to do the kill with 3 mafia members alive... which was the case last night...

Do you take me for stupid or something?

[Robb]

You do realize that he still visits someone.

[Tywin]

Oh hai, I was playing HoN. I do that a lot.

I received no PMs last night.





This is what I presume happened to me.
I did not get any PM, as the visitation had no effect, and the GF's passive armor made Tywin not kill him.

Alternatively, it could have been a doctor using armor.

The armor claim leads me to believe that Lord Varys is the Godfather or Doctor.

Cap/Jack: would the GF be randomly sent to kill, or would he actually have to be doing the kill to do something?

It seems rather bad luck (and very unlikely) that the only one who targeted you, Robb, was a Jester-affected Godfather.

[Tywin]

You do realize that he still visits someone.

I dunno I thought it worked like citizen. If he has no available action that night, he cannot do anything.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Cap/Jack: would the GF be randomly sent to kill, or would he actually have to be doing the kill to do something?

In the event that a Godfather fell victim to a jester vote, he would only be forced to carry out the kill if he was capable of doing so. You can assume he is treated much like any other role without a primary night action otherwise.

[Oberyn]

Oh hai, I was playing HoN. I do that a lot.

I received no PMs last night.





This is what I presume happened to me.
I did not get any PM, as the visitation had no effect, and the GF's passive armor made Tywin not kill him.

Alternatively, it could have been a doctor using armor.

The armor claim leads me to believe that Lord Varys is the Godfather or Doctor.


You do realize that he still visits someone.

:evil:
That is utter BS. Read the reply by the GMs.
It says "Latter" as in "his visitation has no effect"

GF DOES NOT Visit until there is 2 dead mafia members.

[Tywin]

In the event that a Godfather fell victim to a jester vote, he would only be forced to carry out the kill if he was capable of doing so. You can assume he is treated much like any other role without a primary night action otherwise.

What I meant was, if he normally was unable to do the kill, would he still be randomly be sent out to do something? Or would he be inactive like a citizen?

[Forum Mafia GM]

What I meant was, if he normally was unable to do the kill, would he still be randomly be sent out to do something? Or would he be inactive like a citizen?
Under that condition, I've already answered your question.

[Tywin]

Oh hai, I was playing HoN. I do that a lot.

I received no PMs last night.





This is what I presume happened to me.
I did not get any PM, as the visitation had no effect, and the GF's passive armor made Tywin not kill him.

Alternatively, it could have been a doctor using armor.

The armor claim leads me to believe that Lord Varys is the Godfather or Doctor.

Again, like Sandor, Robb seems to believe that there is a doctor despite there being no evidence for it.

Coincidence? I think not.

[Oberyn]

-REMOVE ROBB

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=2N1jgODuxK4#t=463s

[Oberyn]

Alright, I've been informed that has been done.

Now, Tywin. Since I forced a block on Melisandre, we know she isn't the cult leader, most likely a cult member. Any idea who is the real cult leader? Sandre did claim to be roleblocked but Rodriks action was randomized, I'll go look for any signs of a coded message from Melisandre indicating that she was roleblocked.

[Forum Mafia GM]

With a thunderous roar, Anya Nighthawk commanded Robb to begone from their home. While she could not find it in her to kill one of her own children, she would not suffer his presumed corruption in her presence any longer.

Compelled, he had no choice but to obey.

[Tywin]

I would feel really bad if Robb was actually a loyal member...

In any case, he defended himself poorly. Time to move on.

I think the cult leader is one of the lurkers. I'll go back to take a look at the thread.

[Oberyn]

Melisandre does have a few posts before he claims roleblocked. I'm guessing that Sandor was waiting to hear from his subjects to see what he could claim.

[Tywin]

If Robb was culted, then the cult leader is down a vest. It would make sense to cult Robb anyways, he was lurking at the edge of the game, and it would be nice to have a confirmed escort. As it is, it's a cat and mouse game. We have to decide who to send to do the kill. I presume Robb will probably be on one of us to prevent a possible hit on the cult leader.

I notice Ser Loras has completely disappeared from the game. I would not be surprised if he is a cult member by now.

Khal Drogo, Sandor, Illyn all seem like possible cult leader candidates. As it is, it's all a game of chance. We just have to pick someone among the serf claimers/nonclaimers and hopefully hit the right person. With the amount of lurkers in this game (including me I must admit) it is practically impossible to get an accurate read, also with all the trolling.

EDIT: Melisandre is indeed a possible cult leader. However, I would consider her a less likely choice, given how active she was, and possibly a night target for the mafias which would immediately reveal her. Then again, her attention drawing ways could have planned to work the opposite way. Again, it's all up to chance.

If the armorsmith is in the cult it's auto win. The cult has been alive and unaffected too long. They are nearly unstoppable at this point. Only a miracle kill on Dracula can get us the win.

[Tywin]

Now that I think more, Aemon is also a candidate. His dragons could be an attention-diverting move, and it could be a clever way to communicate to his followers.

[Oberyn]

The fact that Robb helped the lynch against Rodrik and jumped off Sandor when he could is also troubling.

Melisandre could not have visited Robb yesterday since she was roleblocked. And I'm really guessing that Robb got culted last night. Robb had no objections to blocking Melisandre either, probably indicating he wasn't culted at the time or Melisandre is not the leader.

[Tywin]

So your primary suspect is Sandor?

[Oberyn]

I'm really considering following through with my posted plan.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Please be as thorough as possible in your conclusions and deductions.

[Tywin]

I wish that I had hammered Sandor, at least for the info.

A seductress lynch didn't really help us at all.

EDIT: But still, Sandor was at L-1. Would the nearly majority cult, have let that happen?

That's the most troubling aspect of this situation for me. I can't make or heads or tails of it.

[Oberyn]

I'm just not sure where you would be most useful.
I can force Robb to do an action, so he can't do anything to prevent it.

But looking at the order of Ops, Culting happens before Kills. And the cult would know you are the interceptor. So I'm considering having you do the kill and block Sandor as well to protect you from being culted if Sandor really is the cult leader.

[Oberyn]

Please be as thorough as possible in your conclusions and deductions.

Why do you need to know? I'll be posting all the night actions in the other thread once decided... Is this qualifications for MVP award or something?

[Forum Mafia GM]

It is for both our benefits.

Should your night actions change the game's conclusion, it would be preferable to show it was not a fluke.

[Tywin]

Why do you need to know? I'll be posting all the night actions in the other thread once decided... Is this qualifications for MVP award or something?

Lulz

I didn't understand that post either, at all.

EDIT: Holy crud, I feel like we are onto something here, something gamechanging. Jack/Cap please enlighten these unworthy! :p

[Oberyn]

Well, simple fact is, if you get culted, I can't win and if Robb is culted, they know who you are and having an interceptor on their team is a huge + if they kill me off.

So basically, if I'm wrong about Sandor being cult leader, I might surrender tomorrow by revealing myself and coordinate with the town to kill the cult leader, because I refuse to let the cult win by lurking and acting this stupid in every game.

[Tywin]

Well, simple fact is, if you get culted, I can't win and if Robb is culted, they know who you are and having an interceptor on their team is a huge + if they kill me off.

So basically, if I'm wrong about Sandor being cult leader, I might surrender tomorrow by revealing myself and coordinate with the town to kill the cult leader, because I refuse to let the cult win by lurking and acting this stupid in every game.

Interesting. It's true, it's very likely I'll be culted tonight, they have all the cards on their side tonight. In any case, the only way we can is if Sandor is the cult leader. Seems like a long shot XD

Well, it was an interesting game with its up and down. The cult definitely snowballed after the first few nights and the lack of anything from the masons. Well played sir, this might be my last night with the orange alignment. I wish you the best of luck, and it was nice playing with you.

[Tywin]

Based on this game, the masons should probably have been given the capability to increase their numbers, albeit slowly. Maybe recruiting every other night. As it was, the masons were completely obliterated in 2 nights and the cult has a steamroll win.

Anyway, it looks like our actions are decided. Let's do this.

Do you want to keep talking after the actions are set? We can have some enlightening discussion XD

[Oberyn]

If by the off chance that Sandor is not the Cult Leader, as you mentioned before Ser Loras has vanished. Adding that to the hint that the Cult Leader could not be smitted by the masons from the GM. He'll probably be under fire from me tomorrow.

I ask you, do you know who I am?

[Tywin]

Not really, I am a newer player and don't have a lot of knowledge of playstyles.

Cap/Jack, are you ok with us possibly revealing COMs to each other?

The game is nearing the end anyway, the eclipse when Dracula shall rise XD

[Forum Mafia GM]

Based on this game, the masons should probably have been given the capability to increase their numbers, albeit slowly. Maybe recruiting every other night. As it was, the masons were completely obliterated in 2 nights and the cult has a steamroll win.

Anyway, it looks like our actions are decided. Let's do this.

Do you want to keep talking after the actions are set? We can have some enlightening discussion XD
It's not my fault one of them decided to out himself on like the second day and the other one acted scummy as fuck.

I also don't quite understand why you think you can only attack Sandor tonight? Care to explain?

[Oberyn]

It's not my fault one of them decided to out himself on like the second day and the other one acted scummy as fuck.

I also don't quite understand why you think you can only attack Sandor tonight? Care to explain?

As I explained in day thread, I believe that the cult leader might receive protection, making tonight the only night possible for a coordinated attack with Red mafia to override protection on Sandor. If we attack anyone else, and red does follow through with that plan, Sandor might survive if he is the cult leader.

If the cult leader is anyone else, then I've already lost since there are too many other scummy moronic town lurkers to pin the Cult leader from.

[Tywin]

As it is, the other mafia team is not the threat. Same with the town, which has nearly all PRs outed and is clearly floundering.

The major threat is the 5+ cult, led by Dracula. Every day that passes by without Dracula's death is in the favor of the cult. If red is indeed infiltrated, both mafias are compromised. We have precious few serious leads on Dracula, and Sandor is probably our best bet. If we simply take a blind shot, the chance of it hitting Dracula is immensely slow. As it is, Sandor has a slightly higher probability of being the cult leader than the other potential cult leaders, and also the one who has talked the most. He has disguised himself remarkably by trolling and using his yellow font, to the point that he has become negligible in the eyes of the town. Would a town PR do that? Possibly, but it also destroys his credibility (and he has claimed serf, even at L-1). A serf? Maybe. A cult leader? Definitely a major possibility. It would be a gambit, but after the second day when no one seriously questioned him, it would be painfully obvious to continue that style of play.

The only that strikes me as odd about Sandor being cult leader is that he was at L-1, but it does seem possible that 9 votes was pretty much the limit, I would have expected this trigger happy town to hammer him instantly, especially if he was not the cult leader.

All this together: Sandor is out best bet. We have no options left. If he is not the cult leader it's instant gg. I will be culted and the cult will become unstoppable. Of course, Robb could have been unculted but that option is highly unlikely.

It's mere probability at this point, and luck.

It didn't help that the immense amount of lurkers (guilty as charged) really demolished most hopes of day scumhunting.

[Oberyn]

Until yesterday, Melisandre was my other #1 suspect for cult leader.. but due to our night actions and the strong possibility that Robb was culted last night, that clears her from being the leader.

[Tywin]

No point second guessing, let's go for it.

Make the decision Oberyn on where you are sending me, and post in the night actions thread.

Maybe we can have some fun before the end XD

[Forum Mafia GM]

It feels like you've both resigned yourselves to defeat, when you have the tools to win right in front of you.

I could care less what your actions are, but your rationale blows and reeks of defeatism.

[Tywin]

Cap/Jack hasn't responded to my COM question. Do you have objections if we reveal?

[Tywin]

It feels like you've both resigned yourselves to defeat, when you have the tools to win right in front of you.

Well if we hit the cult leader we can win lulz

If we don't we lose

[Oberyn]

It feels like you've both resigned yourselves to defeat, when you have the tools to win right in front of you.

I do not know who the cult leader would cult next other than Tywin.. unless he can target himself, that is of no help.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Cap/Jack hasn't responded to my COM question. Do you have objections if we reveal?

It was never against the rules, just discouraged. I honestly don't care.

[Tywin]

Well I suppose that even if Sandor isn't the cult leader, it really depends on whether I'm culted. If I'm not we still got a shot at this.

I've been racking my brain, I just don't understood who else could be the cult leader. The suspects I named earlier seemed the most likely to me. Perhaps Aemon or Khal Drogo... There's just nothing definitive though.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I do not know who the cult leader would cult next other than Tywin.. unless he can target himself, that is of no help.
You have a consort and a trapper.

[Tywin]

I just thought about the situation.

There's no point to roleblocking and killing Sandor. There is no reason.

Kill Aemon. Send Robb to block Sandor.

It's time to get our asses in gear. We still have a chance to win this. If Sandor is the cult leader, his recruit will be prevented. Aemon is the other suspect in my opinion that is the most likely. Or Khal Drogo. There's no point moping. We've played a good game, it was bad luck that got Eddard killed and Robb culted the night before he became a basically town confirmed escort. I killed the vig and bus driver, the town lost its sheriff. Town won FMV. We have a chance. I'm going to sleep soon, maybe another 20 minutes.

Let's get rolling, Mafia still has a chance to get its first win.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I just thought about the situation.

There's no point to roleblocking and killing Sandor. There is no reason.

Kill Aemon. Send Robb to block Sandor.

It's time to get our asses in gear. We still have a chance to win this. If Sandor is the cult leader, his recruit will be prevented. Aemon is the other suspect in my opinion that is the most likely. Or Khal Drogo. There's no point moping. We've played a good game, it was bad luck that got Eddard killed and Robb culted the night before he became a basically town confirmed escort. I killed the vig and bus driver, the town lost its sheriff. Town won FMV. We have a chance. I'm going to sleep soon, maybe another 20 minutes.

Let's get rolling, Mafia still has a chance to get its first win.

Yes, that is a much better attitude.

[Tywin]

OBERYN WHERE ARE YOU

WHERE HAVE YOU GONE

It's time to decide. Aemon or Khal Drogo. Who is the cult leader?

I'm leaning toward Aemon, or Khal Drogo.

I'm noticing that you are spending all of your time on our thread Cap/Jack. Is Richard alone from having kicked his culted member?

Now that I think about it, we should look at who lynched the Consort. It's very possible that that lynch was engineered by cult members who had knowledge of the Consort and decided to end the Red Mafia. Who redirected the lynch onto Rodrik? If we can trace it to a source, we can have found our missing cult leader.

As it is, I am starting to think that it is not Sandor. In any case, the Robb block will screw him over.

[Tywin]

Lord Varys is in the cult. In post #29 he asks whether the GF can override night kill, I think he was trying to ask for the cult. But I don't think he is the leader.

I'm starting to think Cersei is also a cult leader suspect. He claimed serf VERY early, but he started the lynch on Rodrik with the first vote, his vote could be on the Consort without being directly associated with the lynch train. His trolling ensured that he got no attention the first few days. Sandor is also probably a culted citizen who is trying to take a bullet for his leader.

Moving on similar logic, Daenerys could be the cult leader. Argh, it's so frustrating sifting through all of this. The cult leader could be anywhere. I will take a leap and say Melisandre is culted as well.

In any case I've narrowed down to Aemon, Cersei, and Khal Drogo. Those are my cult leader suspects. We need to hit one. It's your call Oberyn.

[Oberyn]

I'm still here, re-reading day chat. I'll consider what you just said. Looking for a new target.

[Forum Mafia GM]

I am just making sure that all my players are still actively seeking victory through intelligent means.

You guys seem to be on the rocks despite all that's happened, so I thought I'd give you a pep talk and set you back on the track.

[Tywin]

I am just making sure that all my players are still actively seeking victory through intelligent means.

You guys seem to be on the rocks despite all that's happened, so I thought I'd give you a pep talk and set you back on the track.

It was well appreciated :D

As it is, we still seem to be on the rocks. At least there's no cliff below XD

[Tywin]

I just realized something: Aemon uses dragons in orange ink, when he says:

The dragons are hungry, and they want some fresh meat.
-vote ser rodrik

He used this to refer to us (the generic orange mafia) wanting to lynch the red mafia. He uses red for dragons throughout the day chats, except this time. I don't know if this means that he has a source of information, or if he is just incredibly observant, but it's something to keep in mind.

[Tywin]

I just realized something: Aemon uses dragons in orange ink, when he says:

The dragons are hungry, and they want some fresh meat.
-vote ser rodrik

He used this to refer to us (the generic orange mafia) wanting to lynch the red mafia. He uses red for dragons throughout the day chats, except this time. I don't know if this means that he has a source of information, or if he is just incredibly observant, but it's something to keep in mind.

That's post #257, in case you would like to know.

[Tywin]

I'm going to bed. Good luck in your search Oberyn. Never lose hope. We still got a last shot at this game.

If there's something I've learned from my chess career, it's that resigning never wins games. Even the worst positions can be turned around.

The cult's only weakness is it's strongest member: Dracula himself. It might be difficult to find him, but the cult leader was hit n1 last game. Anything can happen, probability means nothing when luck makes its play.

Thanks for making me remember that, Cap or Jack or whichever one you are at this point >.>

Long live the Children of the Stars! We will die in glory!

[Tywin]

btw post #266 Aemon says this:

oops wrong color on the dragons, i must be disguised O.o

Food for thought.

[Oberyn]

Ok, lets look at all the possibilities:

* means they voted jester

Aemon - roleblocked n2, I expected Jaime to be recruited n2, but due to Order of Ops, it's possible that Jaime was culted n3

Cersei - Mr Dragons, Possible CL

*Daenerys - Bussed n1, claims cit, roleblocked n3, over all uninterested in the game until today... I don't think he is the leader

Janos - bussed n1 and n2, jester on him n2, bussed n3, I don't think he would have revealed the jesters existance if he was CL

*Joffrey - Jailed n1, smited n1, claims invest, checked Davos n2 = Vigilante/Bus Driver/Jailer/Interceptor, checked robb n3. Confirmed
consig/invest

*Khal Drogo - enforced n1, uninterested in the game/lurker, still possible CL but I don't think so.

*Lord Varys - Claims to have gotten armor, asks lots of questions about GF, Possible CL or GF,

*Melisandre - lies about being Roleblocked on multiple occasions, thought that Gregor was jester before hammering, WAS roleblocked last night, could not have been the one to visit Robb.

Oberyn - I'm GF.. immune to cultings...

*Petyr - No claim yet, no notes on him overall - possible cult leader

Robb - Consort

Samwell - claims cit and vanished, most likely a role quitter, still possible CL

*Sandor - smited n2, GM hint about smiting CL does nothing, yesterday fiasco

Ser Ilyn - No claim, says I'm scummy, cult did not try to recruit me and I haven't been attacked, heavy Lurker, Possibly CL

Ser Jorah - Scummy all game starting with d2 about the night chat with Ser Loras... Ser Loras could not be cult with Joras that day. Possible CL

Ser Loras - roleblocked n1, smited n3, no claim possible CL

*Stannis - no claim, no help, probably a bored cit

Tywin - Interceptor that I hope is not culted.


I still don't know what the Reds last mafia role is. No evidence of it leaving a trail so far.

[Oberyn]

I'll go get some rest, we have all of tomorrow to reach a conclusion. Let me sleep on it and I might come up with a plan.

[Tywin]

My instincts tell me Aemon, but again, there are several choices.

[Forum Mafia GM]

If I may pose another question to gain entry into your minds: What would you do if you were CL in this situation? (i.e. 5 recruitments in)

[Tywin]

If I may pose another question to gain entry into your minds: What would you do if you were CL in this situation? (i.e. 5 recruitments in)

Ummmm

I would recruit, and I would probably make a play for the town at this point because the cult is the strongest faction, and grows stronger

[Forum Mafia GM]

"make a play for the town" - What does this mean?

[Tywin]

"make a play for the town" - What does this mean?

I would be more aggressive in day, ordering my cult to starting lynches and training the mafias, especially if they are infiltrated.

He can even move to eliminate the vamps by sacrificing culted citizens to reveal the identities of the mafia, the town has a choice of who to lynch, the mafias seem to be a more likely choice and more sure as well.

I was struck by a thought about Aemon: right after he uses orange text in the same post as his vote on Ser Rodrik, the cult suddenly switches track and Rodrik was lynched very quickly. To get back from L-1 to another lynch in just a few hours... It's becoming even more likely in my mind that Aemon signaled for a lynch on Rodrik, and the cult switched tack when town wasn't hammering.

[Forum Mafia GM]

And what level of activity do you expect the CL would have in a game such as the one that is currently occurring?

[Forum Mafia GM]

I was struck by a thought about Aemon: right after he uses orange text in the same post as his vote on Ser Rodrik, the cult suddenly switches track and Rodrik was lynched very quickly. To get back from L-1 to another lynch in just a few hours... It's becoming even more likely in my mind that Aemon signaled for a lynch on Rodrik, and the cult switched tack when town wasn't hammering.

So you're saying Lord Varys and Joffrey were culted, then?

[Tywin]

I WOULD have said lurking, but in the same token, by establishing himself as an active member he will be able to clear himself. I would anticipate that he ordered his cult members to lurk, and by claiming their roles he will manage to divert attention from himself onto the lurkers.

Or he could just be a lurker XD

EDIT:

I haven't quite decided who is culted. I just think that at least a few of the voters were definitely cultists. Joffrey probably is cultist, he was most likely culted early on when it wasn't clear that he was town. Varys? Possibly, he could be GF as well. It's not that clear to me.

One interesting point is Ser Jorah... I'm not quite sure if he is culted or not...

[Tywin]

OBERYN HAVE U LEFT AGAIN

Suspected Cult:
Samwell
Loras
Joffrey
Petyr possible culted red mafia

[Oberyn]

I am back and will attempt to answer the GMs questions:

If I were cult leader at this point what would I do during the day: Me personally, I'd be active during the day, contributing to the current topic and influencing it onto a non culted person. But's that is how I play, I play risky and I enjoy the game more as I feel that I fool more people into believing my story and am out in the open. Based on passed experiences, I've seen cult leaders play that way or just lurk and win the boring way.

I've seen multiple people this game get very active yesterday and I've seen others vanish and go full lurk mode. I personally cannot figure out who is the cult leader without using metagaming resources and hunting down COM names which I do not want to resort to.

Joffrey cannot be helping us anymore as he would be foolish to expose the armorsmith if he finds him and would most likely expose Tywin if he got the chance.

Petyr can't be culted red mafia since he voted the jester and Red Mafia was still able to kill. GMs told me that jester would force them to resort to their basic skill and not kill.

Everyone who voted the jester can't be the random mafia, leaving: Aemon, Cersei, Janos, Samwell, Ser Ilyn, Ser Jorah and Ser Loras as possible Red random.

No dead mafia were culted. So if Red team was culted, the last mafia is also culted.

Ser Loras was smitted n3, making him not a culted mafia.

Sandor said the cat avatars are mafia, meaning Ser Jorah and Lord Varys. This is either true or a cover story to protect the Cult Leader
since GF is not the priority target.

Ser Ilyn has been lurky all game, randomly voted me up with no arguments against me. I find that he fits the bill for random mafia.

Samwell claimed cit and simply does care about the game = not Mafia but could be cult Leader.

Janos.. Claimed to have received armor and visited by jester as well as informed us of the bus drivings. No counter claims to any of that, kept the armor secret for awhile, most likely town.

Cersei claimed Bishop early on and was way too out in the open to be scum. Too easy for masons to counter claim, very low risk of him being the Cult Leader or Mafia. Most likely town / cult member.

Aemon mr orange dragon man. Why would he need a disguiser check, who would his disguiser check be good for if no one can understand it. He has mostly been under the radar.

-----

Another interesting thing we haven't considered is that since you attacked someone last night and our kill was missing, the cult leader may have thought that we targeted that person for our regular kill. Lord Varys and Daenerys were the only ones to mention the missing kill. Why would Lord Varys suggest that we targeted the Cult Leader if he was it? Daenerys on the other mentioned every other possibility. Sandor started his lynch on Daenerys, so if Sandor turns up culted, I doubt that he would put pressure on his own Leader.

[Oberyn]

Aemons first post was: "Owned by the fool."

That seems like a pointless post meant to be a coded message.

[Oberyn]

Ser Jorah claimed to have gotten armor last night, strongly indicating that the Armorsmith was part of the jester lynch. Since I don't think the Armorsmith would choose to give armor to Ser Jorah.


Daenerys - roleblocked n3, and no one claims to have gotten armor n3... Very possible, also maybe claimed cit to avoid cult and mafia

Joffrey - confirmed investigating role

Khal Drogo - lurked most of the game, low possibility

Lord Varys - Claims to have gotten armor can't be armorsmith.

Melisandre - roleblocked last night, could not give Ser Jorah armor.

Petyr - No claim yet, possible

Sandor - claims roleblocked.. can't be armorsmith

Stannis - no claim, possible.


So Armorsmith is most likely Daenerys... Khal Drogo, Petyr and Stannis are the only other possibilities.

[Forum Mafia GM]

So, 5 nights have passed.
Who do you think is culted, and when, based on what you know?

[Tywin]

I suppose Daenerys fits the bill as the most likely armorsmith.

Again, Aemon seems to be the cult leader for me. His coding and that orange dragon, which coincided with the lynch turning to Rodrik... it just seems too unusual to me.

How much time do we have left? 6 hours?

[Tywin]

So, 5 nights have passed.
Who do you think is culted, and when, based on what you know?

Joffrey: early in the game.
Melisandre: highly possible, but I'm kinda leaning against it.
Jon was recruited one of the nights, and died.

With Joffrey and Jon, that leaves 3 cultists left.
Samwell? A few nights ago.
Loras? The other night from Samwell.
Cersei: maybe n3 or so. His playstyle has changed radically (in small, but noticeable ways) over the course of this game. His early bishop claim was easy to be seen as simple trolling, and the cult would probably have seen through it and recruited him as a serf.

There are still others like Khal, Daenerys, Petyr, and Stannis.

Stannis... is either the cult leader or a terrible serf. He has done nothing the entire game. i.e. disinterested serf or clever cult leader.

[Tywin]

It's just sad that the whole double reboot killed a lot of people's participation levels in the game... Curse you Muso and Claw. It just doesn't seem the same when half of the town is lurking hardcore.

[Oberyn]

So, 5 nights have passed.
Who do you think is culted, and when, based on what you know?

I'm getting to that... that is not an easy thing to figure out unless I have a baseline to go off of. Until I find out Sandors role, I most likely will not be able to determine anyones alignment based on defending / diverting..

[Tywin]

Although it's also possible that Samwell and Loras just got tired of the game...

In that case people like Khal and Melisandre stand out as culted suspects.

I forgot Sandor too, I feel like he is a culted citizen for some reason. Could be wrong though because he is just constantly trolling >.>

[Tywin]

I am near certain though, at this point that Aemon is the cult leader. That orange dragon post really stood out for me, as him coordinating the cult to change the lynch to Rodrik. By putting out his "disguiser" check early on, people naturally first considered him to have a night chat and then disregarded that opinion immediately.

Aemon, in my humble opinion, is our best shot at the cult leader.

It would be sad if he was Richard though lulz

[Forum Mafia GM]

Joffrey: early in the game.
Melisandre: highly possible, but I'm kinda leaning against it.
Jon was recruited one of the nights, and died.

With Joffrey and Jon, that leaves 3 cultists left.
Samwell? A few nights ago.
Loras? The other night from Samwell.
Cersei: maybe n3 or so. His playstyle has changed radically (in small, but noticeable ways) over the course of this game. His early bishop claim was easy to be seen as simple trolling, and the cult would probably have seen through it and recruited him as a serf.

There are still others like Khal, Daenerys, Petyr, and Stannis.

Stannis... is either the cult leader or a terrible serf. He has done nothing the entire game. i.e. disinterested serf or clever cult leader.
Uhh aren't you forgetting someone? And phantom is immune to culting.


I'm getting to that... that is not an easy thing to figure out unless I have a baseline to go off of. Until I find out Sandors role, I most likely will not be able to determine anyones alignment based on defending / diverting..

I'm not sure why you find it so difficult.

[Tywin]

Uhh aren't you forgetting someone? And phantom is immune to culting.



I'm not sure why you find it so difficult.

I'm sorry I meant Jaime, the dead culted guy, not Jon. Oops.

[Oberyn]

Night 1: Melisandre? Started the game scummy, maybe hoping to get a culted roleblocked later that she could use.
Night 2: Ser Jorah? I don't think mafia would be stupid enough to kill a mason willingly
Night 3: Jaime = "confirmed" town that got no flak
Night 4: Aemon? or Sandor? :Trying to get a culted Mason after Mason death.
Night 5: Robb

[Tywin]

Night 1: Melisandre? Started the game scummy, maybe hoping to get a culted roleblocked later that she could use.
Night 2: Ser Jorah? I don't think mafia would be stupid enough to kill a mason willingly
Night 3: Jaime = "confirmed" town that got no flak
Night 4: Aemon? or Sandor? :Trying to get a culted Mason after Mason death.
Night 5: Robb

I think Aemon is the leader, if you think Aemon was n4 who is your leader suspect

[Oberyn]

Sandor or Aemon... If Armon is leader, that means no recruit on n2 which would strongly indicate no culted Red.

[Tywin]

Sandor? It just seems so unlikely, like I said cult probably has some kind of majority and if I had just voted (and I showed that I was active by posting earlier) then cult would be instantly devastated.

Aemon? Much more likely. I still think a red is culted, just perhaps alter on in the game. The fact that both of our recent lynches went onto Red mafs cannot be ignored, in my opinion.

[Forum Mafia GM]

Sandor? It just seems so unlikely, like I said cult probably has some kind of majority and if I had just voted (and I showed that I was active by posting earlier) then cult would be instantly devastated.

Aemon? Much more likely. I still think a red is culted, just perhaps alter on in the game. The fact that both of our recent lynches went onto Red mafs cannot be ignored, in my opinion.
Define "later"

[Tywin]

Later= after night 2, I would say the night before the lynch of the larcenist/consig

It would be logical that the cult is aiming to lynch the mafia, and if they had a culted member infiltrated earlier it wouldn't make sense to delay the lynch. Therefore, the last two days have been two Red mafs (or could have been a cit, which would nonetheless have benefited the cult). IMO the cult was training on Sandor because town was willing to lynch him, but after the hammer never came they tried to shift the pressure onto Rodrik and it worked out, especially now that the cult leader spotlight is on Sandor for tonight.

[Tywin]

Again, in the scenario I have suggested the cult worked out to go onto Sandor; the lynch was never hammered; Aemon signaled for a change onto Rodrik; Rodrik lynched; Sandor main CL suspect for tonight.

It makes sense to me, Aemon never seemed right in my eyes. I am either genius or horribly stoopid XD

[Oberyn]

Some of my current scum lists:

Mafia:

List A:
Lord Varys: GF
Ser Jorah: didn't vote jester, tried to defend Rodrik

List B
Lord Varys: GF
Ser Ilyn: didn't vote jester, didn't vote Rodrik

List C
Khal Drogo: likes trains
Ser Jorah

List D
Khal Drogo
Ser Ilyn



Cult
List A
Leader: Aemon
Night 1: Melisandre? Started the game scummy, maybe hoping to get a culted roleblocked later that she could use.
Night 2: blocked
Night 3: Jaime
Night 4: Failed on Lord Varys
Night 5: Robb

List B:
Leader: Sandor
Night 1: Melisandre?
Night 2: Ser Jorah
Night 3: Jaime
Night 4: Failed on Lord Varys
Night 5: Robb and lied about block

List C
Leader: Ser Loras
Night 1: blocked
Night 2: Melisandre
Night 3: Jaime
Night 4: Failed on Lord Varys
Night 5: Robb

List D
Leader: Khal Drogo
Night 1: Melisandre
Night 2: Ser Ilyn / Ser Jorah
Night 3: Jaime
Night 4: Failed on Lord Varys
Night 5: Robb

[Tywin]

5 hours left... we need to make a choice soon.

[Oberyn]

Lets just start going down all the lists for cult. Hope that Red Team kills list B, we'll kill List A. I'll go post the new actions.

[Oberyn]

As a Ghost Check: I will mention something about "praying" in my first post. Probably about Sandor.

I have plans later today and won't be on for the next few hours. I should be on about 1-2 hours after day starts.

[Tywin]

Good luck Oberyn.

Let it be known that orange mafia... was the best mafia team in this game.

Believe it!

[Tywin]

My ghost check will be a post with life and the name of the dead guy.

If I forget to do it in my first post, then give me a few posts to remember before considering me as the ghost :)

[Tywin]

My ghost check will be a post with life and the name of the dead guy.

If I forget to do it in my first post, then give me a few posts to remember before considering me as the ghost :)

EX: "Sandor was trolling during life, but at least he gives us info in death.