Cult! D:

[Deolrin]

So what do you think happens now?
The only way to win now is to get the Cult Leader, SOMEHOW. So far not a single Mafia died; I suppose the Cult has at least 1 person of each Mafia, and the rest of the Mafia is just waiting to be recruited(willingly).
How come we had only 1 death, that I cannot explain. Roleblocked, or simply unwilling to kill, would be my best bets. Or perhaps, someone tried to shoot the Godfather. I also wonder why whoever has a gun now didn't use it to kill. That means he either got roleblocked or he's trustable.

[Raiden]

If my thoughts are correct, last night was the first one for the cult to recruit randomly. It's not that obvious that both mafia are under cult control, as some people believe. It's not impossible, but actually the fact that one mafia didn't kill support my hypotesis that one mafia was roleblocked or tried to kill the gf, two impossible scenarios if both mafia were culted.

Anyway, the cult has won, hands down. They have 5 people out of 14, at least one mafia under their control, and the serial killer is dead. The chances that the other mafia shoot the leader before he recruits one of them are... very small at best.

[monster]

5 cult out of 14 people in the game today. I think that the cult has a full mafia clan under its control at this point. It should be fairly easy for them to steer the voting so they don't lose a member to lynch. And with two expected kills per night the game could be over next day with 6 cults out of 12 people.

There is still a small chance for a town comeback but for that to happen they need to lynch a culted mafia or the cult leader at day, and then shoot a culted mafia at night with a gun, but I don't see that happening.

I call a decisive cult win.

[Deolrin]

The chances that one of the Mafias will shoot the Cult Leader aren't as slim as you think they are.
It's also possible that the Cult didn't recruit even a single Mafia yet, or that the recruited Mafia refuses to give away his fellow members, although that is unlikely.

[Raiden]

Deoirin, your claim may only be true if we don't see the cultist affiliation of a player upon his death. I don't know if DR has specified this, but i thought we would see if a dead guy was a cultist, and i was basing all my theories on this fact.

If i am correct, it's very, very, EXTREMELY unlikely that the cult hasn't found mafia yet. And even you agree that when you find 1 mafia, the most logical and probable thing to happen is that you recruit ALL that mafia.

That being the case, one mafia will never shot the cult leader, and the other mafia has a 1 in 14 chance to find it, while the cult leader has three times the chances to find one of them. Not to mention that, since i believe it's the massino who are culted, they also have the power of roleblock on their side.

[Deolrin]

7 townies are still alive, any of them can be culted.

[Raiden]

Remember that the cult leader had 6 out of 25 chances to recruit one mafia on the first night. That's 1/4, it's not that unlikely.

The following nights, it was even more likely. Specifically, 6 out of 23 chances the second night, 6 out of 20 the third night and 6 out of 15 the fourth night.

If this was only a game of chance, the cult leader would have roughly 75% chance of having found at least 1 mafia. Since this is not a game of chance, the cult leader would have excluded all peoples who claimed to be citizen, and would try his best to recruit power roles, especially the mafia.

Finally, consider that clawtrocity wasn't culted for two consecutive nights, specifically night 2 and night 3.

[Raiden]

Actually the chances are even higher because i forgot to mention that one of the total number of people is the cult leader himself, and - if he didn't find mafia - another one of the total number is added each night as a fellow cultist.

[monster]

Well, I seemed to have missed a major rule in the game regarding the cult mechanics and nobody brought it up to correct me - LOL. Also the players are not discussing it as well.

If the Cult Leader dies, then half of the Cult (rounding up) at random kills themselves the following night, and the Cult cannot recruit anyone else afterwards.

So, yeah, game is far from over - all players that are not culted should go on cult leader hunt asap, cos if he dies there is a good chance a lot of culted mafia will die as well. Town is still very much in this.

I hope we get some lag so we can tell them to read the rules. /trollface

New prediction: I call an unpredictable game 8)

[Raiden]

True, but the point is... who has the power to kill him now? The serial killer is dead, the guy with the gun was (supposedly) roleblocked, one mafia is under his control and 5 out of 14 people will never vote him no matter what. There is presumably another guy with a gun who can shoot next night, and the other mafia. We also know that at least 1 non massino (or corleone if i was wrong) is culted. It's very unlikely that the cult leader will be randomly shot.

[TheJackofSpades]

Assuming a lynch occurs today, the game will be over two nights from now.

[Auckmid]

The biggest problem is what if the cult recruited the Aroursmith. If that were to happen, the only hope for the town would be to random lynch, and hope they get the cult leader.

[Raiden]

Random lynch? With what voting power? The town isn't willing to vote even the most confirmed bad guys, imagine voting the cult leader. The one and only chance is that unculted mafia randomly shot him.